Resolution Foundation analysis of the size of the UK jobs gap. First presented at event on The road back towards full employment 23 May 2013 http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/road-back-fuller-employment/

1. The Road Back Towards Full
Employment:
Sizing the UK jobs gap
James Plunkett
Resolution Foundation
www.resolutionfoundation.org
@resfoundation
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
#fullemployment

2. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
• Different (and easier!) question:
– How far have things fallen since 2008?
– How long might a recovery take?
Challenges accepted wisdom:
• ‘The jobs recovery is well under way’ – there’s a very long way to go
• ‘The hit to employment has been far weaker in this recession’ – only in its
depth, not its duration
• ‘Working hours have been squeezed’ – yes in some ways, not in others
How far away are we from a full jobs recovery?
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
#fullemployment

3. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
The number of jobs in the UK economy has recovered
to pre-2008 levels
Number of jobs in the UK economy
Change from Mar-May 2008, thousands of jobs
122,000 more
jobs than in 2008
-1,400
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Jobs(thousands)
Number of jobs
#fullemployment

4. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
But once we consider population growth, a large jobs
gap has opened up
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Number of jobs in the UK economy and UK ‘jobs gap’
Change from Mar-May 2008, thousands of jobs
930,000 jobs
short of 2008
employment rate
-1,400
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Jobs(thousands)
Number of jobs Jobs gap controlling for population growth
#fullemployment

5. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Under any realistic scenario the jobs recovery has a
long way to run
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
The UK ‘jobs gap’ under different recovery scenarios
Change from Mar-May 2008, thousands of jobs
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Jobsgap(thousands)
Jobs gap
#fullemployment

6. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Under any realistic scenario the jobs recovery has a
long way to run
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
The UK ‘jobs gap’ under different recovery scenarios
Change from Mar-May 2008, thousands of jobs
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Jobsgap(thousands)
Jobs gap Repeating the 1994-99 jobs boom
#fullemployment

7. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Under any realistic scenario the jobs recovery has a
long way to run
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
The UK ‘jobs gap’ under different recovery scenarios
Change from Mar-May 2008, thousands of jobs
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Jobsgap(thousands)
Jobs gap Repeating the 1994-99 jobs boom
Jobs boom + public sector job cuts
#fullemployment

8. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Under any realistic scenario the jobs recovery has a
long way to run
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
The UK ‘jobs gap’ under different recovery scenarios
Change from Mar-May 2008, thousands of jobs
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Jobsgap(thousands)
Jobs gap Repeating the 1994-99 jobs boom
Jobs boom + public sector job cuts OBR March 2013 forecast
#fullemployment

9. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
This time around the decline has been shallower – but
is now on course to be longer
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Decline in employment rate compared to past recessions
Percentage point fall in employment rate from onset of employment downturn
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Declineinemploymentrate(ppts)
Years after start of employment downturn
2008
#fullemployment

10. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Decline in employment rate compared to past recessions
Percentage point fall in employment rate from onset of employment downturn
This time around the decline has been shallower – but
is now on course to be longer
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Declineinemploymentrate(ppts)
Years after start of employment downturn
1990 2008
#fullemployment

11. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Decline in employment rate compared to past recessions
Percentage point fall in employment rate from onset of employment downturn
This time around the decline has been shallower – but
is now on course to be longer
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Declineinemploymentrate(ppts)
Years after start of employment downturn
1979 1990 2008
#fullemployment

12. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Decline in employment rate compared to past recessions
Percentage point fall in employment rate from onset of employment downturn
This time around the decline has been shallower – but
is now on course to be longer
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Declineinemploymentrate(ppts)
Years after start of employment downturn
1979 1990 2008 Repeating 1990s jobs boom OBR
#fullemployment

13. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
The UK’s ageing workforce is central to achieving a
recovery in employment
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Jobsgap(thousands)
Jobs gap Late 1990s OBR March 2013Aged 16+
The UK ‘jobs gap’ under different recovery scenarios
Change from Mar-May 2008, thousands of jobs
#fullemployment

14. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
The UK’s ageing workforce is central to achieving a
recovery in employment
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Jobsgap(thousands)
Jobs gap Late 1990s OBR March 2013
Jobs gap 16-64 Late 1990s 16-64
Aged 16+
Aged 16-64
The UK ‘jobs gap’ under different recovery scenarios
Change from Mar-May 2008, thousands of jobs
#fullemployment

15. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Working hours: there has been a shift from full-time
to part-time
1,770
1,040
729
-520
296
97 243
904
Population
Active
Inactive
FTemployed
PTemployed
FTself-employed
PTself-employed
Unemployed
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
#fullemployment
Change since 2008

16. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
But both part-timers and full-timers are working
longer hours
32.0
31.4
32.0
2008 2009 2013
All workers
37.1
36.5
37.5
2008 2009 2013
Full-time workers
15.6
15.2
15.9
2008 2009 2013
Part-time workers
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
#fullemployment
Average working hours

17. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
The Resolution Foundation
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
• No room for complacency – full jobs recovery
a long way off
• Ageing workforce is a big part of the picture
• Real wage squeeze key part of the story

18. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
The Road Back Towards Full
Employment
Resolution Foundation
www.resolutionfoundation.org
@resfoundation
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
#fullemployment