The document discusses promising business models for photovoltaics (PV) in a post-incentive environment. It analyzes experiences from 7 countries and focuses on the primary PV market. New models combine self-consumption for energy savings with PV electricity supply through power purchase agreements and more active consumer involvement. While high self-consumption models are feasible, legislation must not hinder these new approaches. The document provides examples of viable PV projects for multi-family housing, public buildings, commercial facilities, and industrial sites. It also discusses the potential impact of legislative changes on project profitability.

1. The Post-FIT reality:
promising business models
for PV
Riccardo Battisti, Ambiente Italia
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No 646554

2. • Private consultancy company in the energy and environment field
• 20 years of activity
• More than 1,500 local, national and international projects
• 30 experts and 4 offices
• PV Financing:
– post-incentive experiences from 7 Countries
(Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom)
– Focusing on PV primary market

3. IS PV STILL FEASIBLE TODAY?
YES, WE CAN!
• Price decline
• Reliable and well known technology
• New promising business models / financing schemes combining:
– Self-consumption for energy saving
– PV electricity supply (Power Purchase Agreements, PPAs)
– More active involvement of consumers (equity crowdfunding, energy
cooperatives, «solar bonds», etc.)

4. IS PV STILL FEASIBLE TODAY?
NO, WE CANNOT…
• No more incentives
• Low remuneration of electricity sold to the grid / on the market
• Therefore models relying on high shares of self-consumption
• And then high project risk (too strict connection with the
consumption level)
• General risk of PV legislation: Unreliable and unstable
(even retroactive measures)
• Legislation barriers still hampering the new business models

5. Political risk
Quality issues
Taxes and grid
charges
Minimum
Investment
Limits
Legal costs
Risk of
curtailment
Bankruptcy or
re-location
Barriers
Source: Sonia Dunlop, SolarPower Europe
WHICH BARRIERS?

6. Due diligence
Replaceable
power
consumers
Direct grid
connection
and wholesale
PPA
Watertight
contract with
take or pay
clause
Lift and shift
option
Government
safety net
Source: Sonia Dunlop, SolarPower Europe
HOW TO FACE SUCH BARRIERS?

7. PROFITABILITY ANALYSIS
AND BUILT EXAMPLES

8. Analysed sectors
• Residential, single-family: No need for «special» business models
• Residential, multi-family
• Office buildings
• Public buildings
• Commercial & shopping malls
• Industrial

9. Multi-family house
Germany
• “Neue Heimat” Cooperative
Family Home in Nußloch
(close to Heidelberg)
• 445 kWp; 370,000 kWh/year
• 116 tenants buy PV
electricity for 25.4 c€/kWh
plus a monthly fee of 6.95 €
• 20-years price stability
guaranteed
• Tenants can also buy shares Source: www.pv-financing.eu

10. • Tenant package: 800 € private loan + two
shares of 100 € each
• Loans are repaid through the following
scheme:
– 3% fixed interest rate
– Payback time: 20 years
– Payback period starts from the third year with a
yearly instalment of about 60 € inclusive of
interest and amortisation
• Plant operator as electricity retailer – i.e.
selling electricity separately to single
households (not possible in other Countries,
e.g. Italy)
Multi-family house
Germany
Source: National PV
implementation guidelines for
Germany, PV Financing project

11. Light Blue: Business share; Blue: Loan level
Light Green: profit shares
Green: Payback including interest and amortisation
Source: www.pv-financing.eu

12. Residential, multi-family
PPA profitability – Italy
• Plant cost: 1,800 €/kWp
• Plant size: 20 kWp
• Yield: 1,275 kWh/kWp (installation site: Central Italy)
• Self-consumption rate: 30% (only for common loads!)
• Not easy to increase it
• Grid electricity price: 0.22 €/kWh
• PPA price: 0.17 €/kWh (23% savings)
• Remuneration by “scambio sul posto” (net-metering): 0.10 €/kWh
• PBT = 13 years
• IRR = 8%

13. Public buildings
+
Attractiveness of PPA solutions for the Public Body
Reliability of the consumer reduces the project risk
-
Complicated procedures for tendering
Low self-consumption rates for some buildings (e.g schools)

14. Industrial
PPA profitability – Italy
• Not parks with multiple users
• Plant cost: 1,000 €/kWp
• Plant size: 1,000 kWp
• Self-consumption rate: 90%
• PPA price: 0.14 €/kWh (18% savings compared to 0.17 for grid electricity)
• No remuneration by “scambio sul posto” (net-metering)
• 70% debt financing with a 7 years loan (interest rate: 7%)
• PBT = 8 years (low…but low enough?)
• IRR = 17%

15. Small industrial plant
Self-consumption, Italy
• Plant cost: 105,000 € (VAT excluded)
• Plant size: 70.84 kWp
• Annual consumption before PV: 43,000 kWh
• Grid electricity price: 0.18 €/kWh
• PV output: 85,796 kWh
• Self-consumption (savings): 29,063 kWh (40% share)
• Grid injection: 56,733 kWh
• Energy from the grid: 13,937 kWh

16. • Annual savings: 5,231 €
• Annual remuneration for “scambio sul posto”: 5,673 € (about
10 c€/kWh)
• Asset amortisation: 4% in 25 years
• PBT: more than 8 years
• Wrong sizing of the plant, too large for the consumption
• A 35 kWp plant would have had a 80% self-consumption rate
Small industrial plant
Self-consumption, Italy

17. L‘Oreal industrial plant
Italy
• 3 MWp PV plant
• Expected yield: 3,600 MWh/year
• Specific yield: 1,200 kWh/year per
kWp
• Self-consumption rate: 100%
• PV output: 30% of the total demand
Source: Qualenergia.it

18. • Investment: 3,000,000 €
(about 1,000 €/kWp)
• Balance sheet finance, no debt
financing
• 20 years contract, including a “take or
pay” provision
• 10% savings with respect to grid price
• Investor also broker for the additional
energy demand of the factory
Source: Enersol
L‘Oreal industrial plant
Italy

19. Commercial sector – SPAR
Austria
• Good load curve (75% in sun hours)
• Two PV systems (176 kWp)
• Crowdfunding towards customers
• 950 € shares (maximum 5)
• 60 €/year through purchase coupons
for 25 years
• Corresponding to 5.1% return rate
plus a portion of the purchase price
• The remaining 400 € will be paid at
the end as coupons or cash
Source: www.pv-financing.eu

20. Arese shopping mall
Italy
• 50% of the common loads covered by PV (1.4 MWp)
• Lighting and space cooling through heat pumps
• Also 2 cogeneration units Source: Qualenergia.it

21. • Expected yield: 1,500 MWh/year
• Self-consumption rate: almost 100%
Source: Qualenergia.it
Arese shopping mall
Italy

22. LEGISLATION OUTLOOK
AND IMPACT ON PROFITABILITY

23. WHAT COULD HAPPEN AFTER?
• Profitability relies on high self-consumption shares
• Is legislation going to make it easier or harder?
+ Extending self-consumption and PPAs to multiple users (AT, FR, no IT)
-Shifting grid charges from the volumetric share to the capacity-based
share, thus making savings less attractive

24. POTENTIAL IMPACT
AN EXAMPLE FROM AUSTRIA
• Amendment of Electricity Act expected by the end of 2016
• Enabling common PV systems for supplying electricity to multiple
users in buildings (residential, office, commercial)
+Increasing possible self-consumption rate
-
– How to organise the billing?
– How to share the PV output among the users?
Source: Mira Teoh, Photovoltaic Austria

25. POTENTIAL IMPACT
AN EXAMPLE FROM AUSTRIA
General
consumption
Unit 3
Unit 2
Unit 1
Meter
Meter
Meter
Meter
inverter
Public grid
Difference
Supply/demand
Source: Mira Teoh, Photovoltaic Austria

26. POTENTIAL IMPACT
AN EXAMPLE FROM AUSTRIA
General consumption Separate systems Common PV system
System size 10 kWp 2 kWp per system 20 kWp
System cost 12,250 EUR 3,600 EUR 21,000 EUR
Self-
consumption
20% 35% 90%
Financing Loan Self-funded Loan
Amortisation 19.5 years 16.82 years 9.81 years
Project
rentability
2.94% 3.55% 10.18%
Source: Mira Teoh, Photovoltaic Austria

27. POTENTIAL IMPACT
AN EXAMPLE FROM ITALY
• Reform of the bill for non-domestic customer (75% of the national
consumption) should be ready by the end of 2016
• 5 scenarios under consultation
• Estimated cut of 0.36÷4.5 billion investments until 2030
• The Energy Authority seems to be oriented towards the 2 «positive»
ones (estimated market decrease: 7÷12%)
• Detailed study is available (in Italian)
Source: eLeMeNS

28. POTENTIAL IMPACT
AN EXAMPLE FROM GERMANY
• Tenant sub-metered electricity supply (TSMES):
– Tenants and owners; Residential and commercial
– No grid charges
– 100% of the EEG levy (6.354 c€/kWh)
• Amendment to the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) in Jan 17
• § 95 no. 2: German Federal Ministry of Economics (BMWi)
authorized to further regulate TSMES
• Reduced EEG levy for PV electricity…?
Source: National PV implementation guidelines for Germany, PV Financing project

29. POTENTIAL IMPACT
AN EXAMPLE FROM GERMANY
Challenges / restrictions:
• No legal claim for implementation
• No deadline
• Residential only
• Using only the building roof
• Possible distinction by installation sizes or user groups
• Opening a potential market of 1 million multi-unit buildings
• A portfolio of projects to increase profitability
Source: National PV implementation guidelines for Germany, PV Financing project

30. AVAILABLE DOCUMENTS AND TOOLS
WWW.PV-FINANCING.EU
AUSTRIA
FRANCE
GERMANY
ITALY
SPAIN
TURKEY
UK
EU LEVEL

31. FACTSHEETS ON
FINANCIAL SCHEMES

32. GOOD PRACTICE
EXAMPLES

33. IS PV STILL FEASIBLE TODAY?
YES, WE CAN!
• Price decline
• Reliable and well known technology
• New promising business models / financing schemes combining:
– Self-consumption for energy saving
– PV electricity supply (Power Purchase Agreements, PPAs)
– More active involvement of consumers (equity crowdfunding, energy
cooperatives, «solar bonds», etc.)

34. CONTRACTUAL
MODELS

35. PROFITABILITY CALCULATION TOOL

36. MAIN MESSAGES
• Focus on user-oriented models:
– Smaller scale
– Business models involving more roles and stakeholders
– Direct participation of users:
• Financial (crowdfunding, cooperatives)
• Consumption (load management, aggregators for providing grid services)
– Not speculative and highly profitable investment
• “Incentives”:
– Self-consumption will be the incentive
– No significant revenues from selling electricity to the grid
– Additional benefits from grid services
– Financial synergy with other technologies in large projects
– PV is the main competitor…of PV (secondary market)

37. Thanks for your time!
Contacts:
Email: riccardo.battisti@ambienteitalia.it
Website: www.ambienteitalia.it
Linkedin and Facebook: Ambiente Italia S.r.l.
Twitter: @AI_AIP