12. I conceptualized the four warrior classes in
1992 or so, and ultimately briefed this to the
Army Strategy Conference in 1998, but to no
effect.
Neither the political nor the bureaucratic
elements of the US Government have made
any serious changes in how we train, equip,
and organize our Cold War forces.
We persist in spending money on expensive
We persist in spending money on expensive
technologies, while avoiding thinking.
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19. The old intelligence paradigm is the linear
The old intelligence paradigm is the linear
paradigm, in which the analyst isolates the
consumer from the collector and the collector
isolates the analyst from the source.
isolates the analyst from the source
The new intelligence paradigm is the diamond
paradigm that recognizes that very often the
most valuable service an analyst or collector
most valuable service an analyst or collector
can render is to put the consumer with a
question in touch with a source who can create
a tailored answer in real time.
a tailored answer in real time
19
21. First, open everything is the future There
First “open everything” is the future. There
will still be a need for spies and secrecy, but on
balance, we must eliminate most barriers to
information sharing and we must empower
the human minds with every possible form of
openness. DIVERSITY is the root of
INNOVATION, and it is INNOVATION that
creates INFINITE WEALTH.
creates INFINITE WEALTH
Open Spectrum—including open cyber‐
security—is often neglected. It is part of
creating a Smart Nation.
creating a Smart Nation.
21
23. These are the eight tribes of intelligence
These are the eight tribes of intelligence
that can together create a robust
information commons and a Smart Nation.
We spend too much time on the 20% that is
private or secret, and not enough time
sharing the 80% that is not secret.
This is a mind‐set change, this is not about
money. For example, Chile could suggest
F l Chil ld t
to UNASUR the enormous value of what is
not being shared, and encourage the
creation of a secure and profitable
creation of a secure and profitable
Information Commons for the South.
23
34. There are more complex depictions of what
There are more complex depictions of what
humans need to be intellectually
productive. Here I show the eight basic
functions that I believe can be offered
within a national cloud at no cost to the
within a national cloud at no cost to the
public, and with enormous benefits for all
eight tribes of intelligence.
Imagine something like this for Bolivia, or
Peru, or the South Pacific where
P h S h P ifi h
international corporations are destroying
long‐term sea life for the sake of short‐term
profit.
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35. In these final three sections I address what I
In these final three sections I address what I
believe to be both an achievable vision and
an essential vision for Chile as a leader of
multinational multiagency information
sharing and sense‐making, perhaps and for
example within UNASUR first, and then
across the Southern Hemisphere starting
with key countries such as South Africa and
with key countries such as South Africa and
Indonesia. Brazil is doing something along
these lines, but based on treaties and trade
agreements rather than information.
Information can change the game!
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39. The cost of war has never been properly and
The cost of war has never been properly and
publicly evaluated in relation to the cost of
creating a prosperous world at peace.
Now that we are all more sensitive to both the
N th t ll iti t b th th
cost of war and the cost to the public of
businesses that externalize 75% of the “true
cost of their products and services the way is
cost” of their products and services, the way is
open for better policies. Chile has an
opportunity help UNASUR and the Southern
Hemisphere to create public intelligence that in
Hemisphere to create public intelligence that in
turn nurtures peace and prosperity for all.
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42. No one else, to my knowledge, has this strategic
No one else to my knowledge has this strategic
analytic model in operation. It is complex but
the point is simple: what is good for one part of
the model may be very bad for all the other
parts.
In the US we are using water we don’t have to
grown grain we cannot eat to fuel cars that
should not exist.
h ld t i t
Health is a good central point. Use public
intelligence to create a healthy Chile, a healthy
UNASUR, a healthy Southern Hemisphere.
UNASUR a healthy Southern Hemisphere
42
44. The five billion poor whose demographic mass will
The five billion poor whose demographic mass will
determine the future of Earth do not have time to go to
schools, but they are intelligent and they can speak and
read a language, so we should give them free cell
p
phones and connect them to free knowledge. Not only
g y
can they be educated one cell call at a time, and
consequently create infinite stabilizing wealth, but they
become a global early warning network for disease,
crime, environmental degradation, and so on.
Cell phones are now available that do not require
electrical recharging. A focused experiment on Chile’s
poorest region, handing out free cell phones while
p
providing a call center and a nation‐wide network of
g
volunteers to answer questions, could be an example
for all other countries.
44
46. I knew in the 1990’s that we need four forces,
not one. Every country must be ready to
protect itself from other countries—that is a
given. What is NOT done well by any country
I know of is the training, equipping, and
organizing of forces dedicated to small wars,
to waging peace, and to defending the
homeland from unconventional threats
including cyber‐attacks and infectious
diseases.
di
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48. I have a special faith in the military as a logical
I have a special faith in the military as a logical
disciplined capability that can help the other
seven tribes share information and make
sense together. Military to military ties are
generally very strong, with very good
communications, and for this reason I see the
military as the essential element in both
creating national centers, and in creating a
creating national centers and in creating a
regional center with two‐way reachback to
every country in UNASUR and then other
countries or new regional centers for South
Asia and Southern Africa.
48
51. Decision Support is the Raison D être
Decision‐Support is the Raison D'être
Value‐Added Comes from Analysis, Not Secret
Sources
Global Coverage Matters More
g
Non‐Traditional Threats Are of Paramount
Importance
Intelligence without Translation is Ignorant
g g
Source Balance Matters More
“Two Levels Down“
Processing Matters More, Becomes Core
Processing Matters More Becomes Core
Competency
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53. Collection Based on Gaps versus Priorities
Collection Based on Gaps versus Priorities
Collection Doctrine Grows in Sophistication
Citizen "Intelligence Minutemen" are Vital
Production Based on Needs vs. Capabilities
P d ti B d N d C biliti
Strategic Intelligence Matters More
Budget Intelligence Is Mandatory
Public Intelligence Drives Public Policy
Analysts are Managers
New Measures of Merit
Multi‐Lateral Burden‐Sharing is Vital
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