Republican Strategist Ron Nehring examines the 2012 election and provides analysis and recommendations for Republican candidates and leaders.

1. The 2012 Campaign:
Analysis and
Recommendations
Ron Nehring

2. What Happened?

3. Presidential Election
Obama wins by 2% in popular vote, 11% in Electoral College
Obama Romney
49%
51%
Every swing state won by Obama, except NC: Obama only lost two
NH, VA, PA, FL, OH, MI, MN, IA, CO, NV states from 08: IN and NC.

4. California: Presidential Election
Obama won by 2.6M votes, or 21.8%
San Diego County
Obama: 565,147 (51.89%)
Romney: 501,234 (46.02%)

5. United States Senate
Democrats expanded majority by 2
GOP Gain:
Nebraska
GOP Losses:
Massachusetts
Maine
Indiana
Net: -2GOP

6. California: United States Senate
Feinstein re-elected, but by smallest margin in 18 years
San Diego County
Feinstein: 565,198 (53.73%)
Emken: 486,671 (46.27%)

7. United States House of Representatives
Republican majority reduced by 5
Democrats Gained Four
Republican Seats in CA
Dan Lungren
Mary Bono Mack
Elton Gallegly (Open)
Brian Bilbray

8. Governors
Republicans gain one to reach 30
Republican Gain
North Carolina

9. California: State Legislature
Democrats today hold supermajorities in both chambers
Democrats Republicans
Assembly 55 25
Lowest since 1977
Senate 27 11 2 vacancies
Lowest since 1963
Last time Democrats 2/3rds majorities in both chambers: 1883.
In the 1882 election, Republicans lost 27 Assembly seats, 15 Senate seats, Governor
and every statewide office. Democrats gained 68 seats in the U.S. House. Republicans
gained 1 in the Senate (chosen by legislatures).

10. Strategic Factors

11. National Mood Benefitted Obama/Democrats
Perception of economic improvement rose substantially
Obama Bush 41 Carter Ford
Election Day 52% 34% 37% 45%
Job Approval

12. Demographics: Gender Gap
Obama lost men, but won by 12% among women
“War on Women”
strategy was
carefully chosen by
Democrats to drive a
wedge between the
GOP and women.

13. Demographics: Latinos
Romney’s % of Latinos lowest since Bob Dole
Republican Share of the Latino Vote
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
R% 35% 37% 30% 25% 21% 35% 40% 31% 27%

14. Demographics: Latinos
Special challenge in the Southwest

15. Demographics: Latinos
Growth nationally

16. 13.8% Latino
69.1% Latino

17. Demographics: Latinos
Latino population growing in 57 California counties
Latino Population (%)
60.0%
50.0%
Latino % of Population
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
1980 1990 2000 2010
United States 6.4% 9.0% 12.5% 16.7%
California 19.2% 25.8% 32.4% 38.1%
San Diego 14.8% 20.4% 26.7% 32.5%
Orange 14.8% 23.4% 30.8% 34.1%
Los Angeles 27.6% 37.8% 44.6% 48.1%
Fresno 29.3% 35.5% 40.0% 50.9%

18. Demographics: Asians
California’s Asian community has almost tripled as a % of
total population Asian Population (%)
20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
Asian % of Population
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
1980 1990 2000 2010
United States 1.5% 2.9% 4.5% 5.0%
California 5.3% 9.6% 12.8% 13.6%
San Diego 4.8% 7.9% 11.3% 11.4%
Orange 4.5% 10.3% 15.4% 18.4%
Los Angeles 5.8% 10.8% 13.5% 14.2%
Fresno 2.9% 8.6% 9.4% 10.3%

19. Low Turnout Overall, Especially in CA

20. Low Turnout and Proposition 32
An additional $64 million makes a difference
California’s 64% turnout rate was lowest on record
for a Presidential year. Average is 73%.
• First time “paycheck protection”
has ever appeared on a California
general election ballot.
• Additional millions labor spent on
turnout.

21. Critical Lessons for the Future

22. 1. Sadly, The Reagan Era is Officially Over
New voters, demographics and politics
Obama first President since Carter
to not run at least in part on
Reagan principles of government.
Reagan Democrats became
Republicans.
Country increasingly diverse
compared to 1980. More Latino,
Asian.

23. 2. Candidates matter
More than political parties
Rep. Todd Akin Christine O’Donnell
“Legitimate rape” “I’m not a witch.”
Richard Mourdoch
"even when life begins in that
Sharron Angle
horrible situation of rape, that is
“I’m tired of people calling
something that God intended to
me wacky.”
happen."

24. 3. Caring and Fairness
Critical qualities in a candidate
• Center and center-left voters must
see these qualities in a candidate.
• Democrats have a playbook to take
these qualities away from GOP
candidates.

25. 4. The World is Run by Those Who Show Up
Turnout programs key in lower turnout elections
• Voter contact programs are proven to
directly impact voter behavior.
• The more personal and credible the
communication, the higher the impact.
• Last minute money can buy television,
but not turnout.

26. 5. Rediscover Jack Kemp
Conservative Republican Congressman was before his time in
adapting GOP message for urban voters
Connecting ideas of
entrepreneurship and free markets
to help lift people from poverty.
Enterprise zones to make urban
areas more competitive.
School choice, charter schools, and
education reforms aimed at
helping people in the inner city.

27. 6. First, win in your own back yard
Republican elected officials need to start by winning
diverse groups in their own districts
GOP legislators, Members of Congress can make progress now by concentrating on winning
not only their own district, but the majority of the Latino, Asian, etc. vote in their district.

28. 6. First, win in your own back yard
Republican elected officials need to win diverse
groups in their own districts
Don’t just visit the border, go over it. Understand the issues and challenges facing the
family and friends of those who have here who are still “back home.”
Prensa Libre, newspaper in Guatemala, receives more hits per day from Los Angeles
than Guatemala City.
Understand the benefits U.S. policy can bring to Central and South America (expanded
trade, support for drug interdiction efforts, etc.).
Concentrate on ethnic media in your district. Latino, Asian, etc. local newspapers, cable
television programs, news websites. Provide news in native languages.
Consider then convey support for sensible pro-immigration policies. Options: Permanent
guest worker program. Raising limits on legal immigration. Make it easier for people here
on student visas to stay and put their skills to work here. Simplify immigration paperwork.
Blue card program?

29. 13.8% Latino
69.1% Latino

30. 2014 Opportunities
Six Year Itch - Cycles
Senate: 20 Dem seats up, vs. 13 Rep seats
Democrat overreach in California