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Implementation of
               MCA approach for optimal
          Minimum Instream Flow determination
           with mitigation measures planning

      mag. Sašo Šantl, Saša Erlih, Tina Mazi, dr. Nataša Žvanut Smolar

             Institute
             for Water of
             the Republic
             of Slovenia



Aosta –5/30/2012 2012
        24th May
page 2

Backgrounds

  • Hydropower is most important RES in Alpine regions


  • RES Directive <-> Water Framework Directive,
                      Habitat Directive


  • Needs for clear and efficient tools to:
        • Support decision making based on multicriteria approach
        • Evaluate impact on environment
        • Evaluate HP potential,
        • Evaluate mitigation measures
Aosta – 24th May 2012
page 3

Pilot case area




                                                                         Possible water intake location.

                                                                         Possible water release location.




                                                   Section of analysis


                             Existing SHPP intakes.




 At the analysed saction there are 4 impasable weirs

Aosta – 24th May 2012
page 4

MCA – decision tree
                        Objective of this MCA is to
                        determine Residual flow
                        (acceptable for all stakeholders).
                        Alternatives are defined with
                        different values of residual flow.



                        Higher number of indicators
                        means more expert research
                        and work.




                        To make MCA more efficient
                        simplification of MCA tree can be
                        proceeded.

Aosta – 24th May 2012
page 5

MCA – decision tree
Example of criteria/indicators reduction according to the main conflict of interests,
indicator causal trends and their similarity.




                  Determination of trends of indicators (rising falling and neutral)
             Indicator score




                                                      Residual flow



Aosta – 24th May 2012
page 6

MCA – decision tree
 Habitat modelling (hydraulic model,
 substrate, fuzzy sets and rules) -> suitabilty
 (CASIMIR software)




Aosta – 24th May 2012
page 7

MCA – decision tree
 Expert determination (Institute for water of RS)




Aosta – 24th May 2012
page 8

MCA – decision tree
 Software for HP potential evaluation and
 determination - VapIdroAste




Aosta – 24th May 2012
HP potential calculation –
                             page 9


VapIdroAste - results




Aosta – 24th May 2012
HP potential calculation –
                                                                                                                                                    page 10


VapIdroAste - results
                                              Technical potential of upper Kokra river according to the length of derivation
                 10000
                                         1000 m                               2000 m                                 5000 m
                                         Nature value                         Ecological important area              A < 10 km^2 or Qlow < 80l/s
                                         Reference section




                          1000
   Insalable power [kW]




                           100




                           10
                                 0   1    2     3     4      5   6   7    8      9      10    11   12     13   14   15   16    17   18    19       20
                          Downstream                                                 Progresive [km]                                           Upstream


Aosta – 24th May 2012
HP potential calculation –
                                                     page 11


VapIdroAste - results
                         Feasible potential:
                         ~ 5200 kW
                         ~ 30.000 MWh/year




                         Environment:
                         - additional costs for mitigation
                         measures
                          - exclusion of prohibit areas by
                         law (reference sections by River
                         Basin Manag. Plan)
Aosta – 24th May 2012
page 12

MCA model
 Model establishment and analysis – SESAMO software




Aosta – 24th May 2012
page 13

MCA model
 Criteria and indicator weighting



                       Nature                                       3/8                          Phytobenthos                 30
     Ecology value




                       preservation
                                                                                                 Fish                         30
                                          2/3             3/4                           9/16     Temperature                  20
                       Good water                                   3/8                          Lateral connectivity         10
                       status                                                                    Longitudinal connectivity    10

                       Increase of
                                          1/6
     RES objective




                       RES

                                                          1/4       1/4                 7/16
                       Efficient energy   1/6
                       use
                                                        Weights                        Weights   Ann. Electr. Production     100
                     WECOLOGY = 9/16 ÷ 3/4 = 0.5625 + 0.1875 * (Lnatura/Lwater body)

                     WRES = 1/4 ÷ 7/16 = 0.4375 - 0.1875 * (Lnatura/Lwater body)




Aosta – 24th May 2012
page 14

Results
 Results for case without additional measures (fish pass planned only on intake weir)




                                                             No score for indicator
                                                             „longitudinal continuum“
Aosta – 24th May 2012
page 15

Results
 Results for case with additional measures (fish pass planned for 4 barriers in derivation section)




                                                                Score for indicator
                                                                „longitudinal continuum“ not
                                                                calculated only in case
                                                                without SHP scheme
Aosta – 24th May 2012
page 16

Results

                        With implementation of additional
                        measure (assuring longitudinal
                        continuum along all derivation river
                        section) same result is assured with
                        app. 140 l/s less of Qres then
                        optimum value of Qres in the case
                        without additional measure.




Aosta – 24th May 2012
page 17

Conclusions

  • Reduction of number of indicators is efficient
        •    less indicators means less research work and expert
             subjectivity
        •    addition work: focus on the main conflict (water), indicator
             trend analysis, searching for delegate indicators

  • In the MCA the weighting is the most political phase

  • Further MCA decision tree prunning (inclusion of
    anthropogenic influences into final representative
    indicators)


Aosta – 24th May 2012
page 18

Conclusions
   Example of inclusion of anthropogenic influences into representative indicator „Fish fauna“


                                               1
                             1
                                               1'''
                                                2'         win-win?
                                                2''
                             2'




                             2''




                             1'''




Aosta – 24th May 2012
Implementation of
                             MCA approach for optimal
                        Minimum Instream Flow determination
                         with mitigation measures planning

                        Thank you for your attention.

              mag. Sašo Šantl, Saša Erlih, Tina Mazi, dr. Nataša Žvanut Smolar

             Institute
             for Water of
             the Republic
             of Slovenia



Aosta –5/30/2012 2012
        24th May

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Session2.4 pp5 sašo šantl_mca approach

  • 1. Implementation of MCA approach for optimal Minimum Instream Flow determination with mitigation measures planning mag. Sašo Šantl, Saša Erlih, Tina Mazi, dr. Nataša Žvanut Smolar Institute for Water of the Republic of Slovenia Aosta –5/30/2012 2012 24th May
  • 2. page 2 Backgrounds • Hydropower is most important RES in Alpine regions • RES Directive <-> Water Framework Directive, Habitat Directive • Needs for clear and efficient tools to: • Support decision making based on multicriteria approach • Evaluate impact on environment • Evaluate HP potential, • Evaluate mitigation measures Aosta – 24th May 2012
  • 3. page 3 Pilot case area Possible water intake location. Possible water release location. Section of analysis Existing SHPP intakes. At the analysed saction there are 4 impasable weirs Aosta – 24th May 2012
  • 4. page 4 MCA – decision tree Objective of this MCA is to determine Residual flow (acceptable for all stakeholders). Alternatives are defined with different values of residual flow. Higher number of indicators means more expert research and work. To make MCA more efficient simplification of MCA tree can be proceeded. Aosta – 24th May 2012
  • 5. page 5 MCA – decision tree Example of criteria/indicators reduction according to the main conflict of interests, indicator causal trends and their similarity. Determination of trends of indicators (rising falling and neutral) Indicator score Residual flow Aosta – 24th May 2012
  • 6. page 6 MCA – decision tree Habitat modelling (hydraulic model, substrate, fuzzy sets and rules) -> suitabilty (CASIMIR software) Aosta – 24th May 2012
  • 7. page 7 MCA – decision tree Expert determination (Institute for water of RS) Aosta – 24th May 2012
  • 8. page 8 MCA – decision tree Software for HP potential evaluation and determination - VapIdroAste Aosta – 24th May 2012
  • 9. HP potential calculation – page 9 VapIdroAste - results Aosta – 24th May 2012
  • 10. HP potential calculation – page 10 VapIdroAste - results Technical potential of upper Kokra river according to the length of derivation 10000 1000 m 2000 m 5000 m Nature value Ecological important area A < 10 km^2 or Qlow < 80l/s Reference section 1000 Insalable power [kW] 100 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Downstream Progresive [km] Upstream Aosta – 24th May 2012
  • 11. HP potential calculation – page 11 VapIdroAste - results Feasible potential: ~ 5200 kW ~ 30.000 MWh/year Environment: - additional costs for mitigation measures - exclusion of prohibit areas by law (reference sections by River Basin Manag. Plan) Aosta – 24th May 2012
  • 12. page 12 MCA model Model establishment and analysis – SESAMO software Aosta – 24th May 2012
  • 13. page 13 MCA model Criteria and indicator weighting Nature 3/8 Phytobenthos 30 Ecology value preservation Fish 30 2/3 3/4 9/16 Temperature 20 Good water 3/8 Lateral connectivity 10 status Longitudinal connectivity 10 Increase of 1/6 RES objective RES 1/4 1/4 7/16 Efficient energy 1/6 use Weights Weights Ann. Electr. Production 100 WECOLOGY = 9/16 ÷ 3/4 = 0.5625 + 0.1875 * (Lnatura/Lwater body) WRES = 1/4 ÷ 7/16 = 0.4375 - 0.1875 * (Lnatura/Lwater body) Aosta – 24th May 2012
  • 14. page 14 Results Results for case without additional measures (fish pass planned only on intake weir) No score for indicator „longitudinal continuum“ Aosta – 24th May 2012
  • 15. page 15 Results Results for case with additional measures (fish pass planned for 4 barriers in derivation section) Score for indicator „longitudinal continuum“ not calculated only in case without SHP scheme Aosta – 24th May 2012
  • 16. page 16 Results With implementation of additional measure (assuring longitudinal continuum along all derivation river section) same result is assured with app. 140 l/s less of Qres then optimum value of Qres in the case without additional measure. Aosta – 24th May 2012
  • 17. page 17 Conclusions • Reduction of number of indicators is efficient • less indicators means less research work and expert subjectivity • addition work: focus on the main conflict (water), indicator trend analysis, searching for delegate indicators • In the MCA the weighting is the most political phase • Further MCA decision tree prunning (inclusion of anthropogenic influences into final representative indicators) Aosta – 24th May 2012
  • 18. page 18 Conclusions Example of inclusion of anthropogenic influences into representative indicator „Fish fauna“ 1 1 1''' 2' win-win? 2'' 2' 2'' 1''' Aosta – 24th May 2012
  • 19. Implementation of MCA approach for optimal Minimum Instream Flow determination with mitigation measures planning Thank you for your attention. mag. Sašo Šantl, Saša Erlih, Tina Mazi, dr. Nataša Žvanut Smolar Institute for Water of the Republic of Slovenia Aosta –5/30/2012 2012 24th May