Fred Dickson, Chief Investment Strategist for DA Davidson spoke at the Southern Oregon Business Conference on January 26, 2011. While our region has some specific challenges, it is good to hear that we are avoiding a double-dip recession and we can expect to continue a slow recovery.
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Economy Stronger Than Expected in 2011
1. Looking Ahead to 2011: Surprise!! The Economy is Better than You Might Think Fred H. Dickson, CMT Senior Vice President & Chief Investment Strategist January 26, 2011 Important Disclosures on Slide 24 SOUTHERN OREGON REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, INC
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8. D.A. Davidson’s Economic Overview Summary Bullish Factors (14): Bearish Factors (7): GDP – Positive – Contracting Annual Growth Personal/Corp Income Tax Increases (2013) Corporate Investment Spending -Positive Home Foreclosure Rate –Negative Federal Reserve Monetary Policy- Positive Federal Budget Deficit – Negative/Worsening Real Corporate Profits-Positive Demographics (Age 45-54)—Negative Trend Auto Sales/Price Trend -- Improving Crude Oil Price- $90/Barrel and Rising ISM Indices – Positive -- Accelerating Unemployment rate – 9.4% Interest Rate Yield Curve –Positive Slope Falling Home Prices – Double Dip Inventories/Export Sales - Improving Durable Goods Orders -- Improving Neutral Factors (8): Major Global Economies –Positive Retail Sales Comps – Positive but Mixed Inflation (CPI Core) - Positive Housing Starts – Still Very Depressed Rail Car Loadings - Improving Employment Trends – Very Slow Improvement Overtime Hours- Positive Leading Indicators- Positive but Slowing Existing Home Sales – Weak but Accelerating Commercial Loan Write-offs –High/Declining The Economy is Stronger than Most Realize Source: Davidson Market Strategy
9. The Economy is Stronger than Most Realize Long-term View of the Growth Rate of the US Economy 12 Month % Change – Real GDP US Economy +3.2% Y/Y Updated 11/1/2010 ABOVE THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE GROWTH RATE
10. D.A. Davidson’s Economic Overview Summary Consumer spending is back to Summer 2008 record levels Source: Factset Data Systems US Retail Sales ($ billions) – Excludes Auto Sales (Recession Periods Shaded) The Economy is Stronger than Most Realize Updated 12/6/2010
11. Corporate Earnings (Cash Flow Basis before Tax). Bottomed out 2Q 2008. Source: Factset Data Systems 12 Month % Change Updated 12/6/2010 The Economy is Stronger than Most Realize
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13. D.A. Davidson’s Economic Overview Summary Federal Budget Deficit – Projected to be $1.38 trillion in 2010 and $1.06 trillion in 2011. Big Deficits present a huge obstacle to rapid future economic growth Source: US Treasury Department Impact of Government Programs on the Debt Reagan Bush 41 Clinton Bush 43 Obama Calendar Year Basis
14. Federal Debt Is a Big Growing Problem Federal Debt as a Percent of Real GDP (1954-2010) Updated 12/6/2010 Source: Factset Data Systems US Debt Burden is now in the Top 20 List of the Most Indebted Global Nations
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17. Should We Worry About a Bond Market Bubble? Bond Market Overview – 10 Year Treasury Yield. Yields are extended on the downside barely providing a return that is above the inflation rate. Risk level: Moderate to High. Near Record Low Level Source: Factset Data Systems Updated 12/6/2010
18. Should We Worry About a Bond Market Bubble? Bond vs Stock Performance Last 15 Years… Bonds Won Source: Factset Data Systems Updated 12/6/2010
19. D.A. Davidson’s Stock Market Overview S&P 500 – Still in a Long-term Bull Market. Market continues to track within is technical “Uptrend Channel”. Our Target is 1400 at 12/31/2011. Our DJIA Target is 13,000 at 12/31/2011. Updated 12/6/2010 Uptrend Channel Downtrend Channel
20. INVESTABLE FUNDS LIQUIDITY/AVAILABILITY ECONOMIC GROWTH Geo-political / Currency FOMC POLICY EPS EXPECTATIONS STOCK PRICE TREND INFLATION EQUITY VALUATION INTEREST RATES MERGERS/IPO ACTIVITY DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS LEGAL/REGULATORY/ POLITICAL FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT MARKET/ECONOMIC CYCLE POSITION PERSONAL SECURITY/SAFETY Bullish Bearish Neutral Federal, State. Local Personal/Corp Tax Rates D.A. Davidson Financial Markets Overview- Weight of the Evidence – Favoring Equities Source: DA Davidson Market Strategy INVESTOR SENTIMENT
21. Market Valuation Metrics . The market valuation is well below the long-term average. The P/E ratio shows a very high degree of market “fear” given current low interest rates, low inflation and projected recovery earnings growth. D.A. Davidson’s Market Metrics Overvalued Undervalued Updated 12/6/2010 Source: Factset Data Systems S&P 500 P/E (Projected Next Twelve Month EPS)
22. What’s Happening in Oregon? Source: University of Oregon The U of O Economic Index for Oregon --- Back on the Road to Recovery
23. What’s Happening in Oregon? Source: Factset Data Systems Case-Shiller Home Price Index – Portland, OR (Now at July 2005 Level)
24. What’s Happening in Oregon? Source: Oregon Employment Dept OREGON UNEMPLOYMENT RATE REMAINS STALLED AT 10.6% (Dec 2011)
33. Disclosures This material has been compiled from sources we deem to be reliable; it is not guaranteed as to its accuracy and does not purport to be complete. All opinions and estimates contained in these reports constitute D.A. Davidson & Co.’s judgment as of the date of such reports, are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility. The information is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions. Because of individual client requirements, it should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor. It is not a representation by us, or an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to sell or buy any security. Further, a security described in a report may not be eligible for solicitation in the states in which a client resides. Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) responsible for this report, attests (i) that all the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views about the common stock of the subject company and (ii) that no part of the compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by him/her in the report. Further information and elaboration is available upon request.