UK in economic crisis
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The document discusses several topics related to economics, history, and human behavior. It summarizes how past economic ideas have led to both progress and disasters. It also examines human psychological tendencies that have driven economic booms and busts. Finally, it questions whether current economic and social patterns can continue indefinitely and calls for developing wiser approaches to capitalism to avoid future crises.
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UK in economic crisis
- 1. Sachin Nandha @sachinnandh a
- 2. Sponsored by JP Morgan
- 3. Are we epistemologically reliable? What do we know? What can we know? How do we know? Sponsored by JP Morgan
- 4. Historicism The “Best” ideas flourish & spread “Best” is always being redefined according to O the geopolitical as well as socio economic r landscape of the time. g a n i s Can these “best” ideas e d sometimes lead us to disaster? KNOWN PUBLICALLY Sponsored by JP Morgan
- 5. Case of Easter Island 200 BC Polynesian‟s begin to settle 300 AD Island completely settled 600 AD Ahus constructed 1000 AD Massive deforestation occurs 1500 AD Resources become scarce Intense warfare begins 1600 AD Resources depleted Cannibalism begins 1722 AD Spanish arrive Sponsored by JP Morgan
- 6. Psychological viewpoint “Modern skulls house stone age minds.” Are we hard wired to be capitalists 1. We are conditional – we are trained by hunter gatherer minds to be competitive, group orientated and power driven. 2. We are hierarchical – which allows us to divide labour and distribute resources “reverse dominance hierarchies” Productive hierarchies (businesses) vs. Allocative hierarchies (dictatorships or aristocracies) State should be productive but can be hijacked easily by Allocative types 3. Envious zero-sum thinkers www.cato.org 4. We are traders by nature Sponsored by JP Morgan
- 7. Limitations of the economy Money is property. Property is a bundle of rights to exclude others from what I have What is Money? through the use of government force. Concentration of wealth Interest perpetuates wealth disparity “Consumption beyond one‟s means is good for the growth of the economy, but bad for the individual who is pilling up debt” Milton Friedman Sponsored by JP Morgan
- 8. Where are we now... Sponsored by JP Morgan
- 9. A Look at the Paradoxes of Our Recent Past and Patterns Sponsored by JP Morgan
- 10. Look out for… • Emerging Best Ideas • Herd Mentality • „Bullish Behaviour • “Bubbles” Forming • Shorter Cycles– decades and years, not centuries? • Short Memories Sponsored by JP Morgan
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- 13. OPEC Crisis Winter of Sell of public discontent assets Sponsored by Sponsored by JP Morgan JP Morgan
- 14. I990‟s Coming of the Information Age • CNN News 24 • Sky News 24 • Growth of the Internet mid 1990‟s • Growth in optimism – “Things Can Only Get Better” Sponsored by JP Morgan
- 15. Technology Boom – Experts View „We have one general response to the word “valuation” these days: “Bull market”. The internet has introduced a brave new world for valuation methodologies and it is a time of especially high risk/reward, in our view. When you overlay the high valuation of many start-ups with the relatively high valuation of the general market, well, we are where we are just trying to do our jobs and find some early stage great companies. If they execute, the valuations will take care of themselves. Again it‟s about monster markets, great management teams and good products.‟ Mary Meeker, stock analyst, Morgan Stanley. Sponsored by JP Morgan
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- 17. New Millennium – Safe as Houses • Different this time • Aversion to Stocks • Relaxed Lending • Buy to Let Relaxed • Media Bandwagon Sponsored by JP Morgan
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- 19. Concentration of wealth Sponsored by JP Morgan
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- 21. Historic Oil Prices Sponsored by JP Morgan Sponsored by JP Morgan
- 22. What is going on now? Sponsored by JP Morgan
- 23. Challenges facing us Rising unemployment Rising inflation Decline in manufacturing Rising sovereign debt Rising household Rising oil prices debt Historical low interest rates Rise of India and JP Morgan China Sponsored by
- 24. What does it all mean? Human Social character condition Herd mentality Consumer Envious zero-sum thinkers Competitive Traders Materialism (our relationship to nature) Driven by greed and fear “Greed is good” Short sighted Individualism Can we keep going like this? If not, where do we go? What attributes do you need to succeed? Sponsored by JP Morgan
- 25. Where now? To avert the next great calamity, what we need is not better hindsight, but wisdom to better navigate through a deeply troubling future. We need "good" capitalists. Sponsored by JP Morgan
Notes de l'éditeur
- The list of new technology companies once valued at hundreds of million pounds and that eventually folded is lengthy and includes online dog food retailers, and the much hyped Boo.com an online designer clothes retailer, with the fundamental problem that people would not part with designer size money over the internet for clothes that they could not touch and feel or try on. Nevertheless J.P.Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Benetton financed the venture to the sum of $185 million dollars, which was lavishly squandered by the businesses founders Kajsa Leander and Ernst Malmsten, photogenic Swedes in their twenties who managed to generate only $1 million worth of sales and whose website took over a year to launch and even then was flawed and difficult to use. Lastminute.com, essentially just a travel agent soared in value on its floatation day to £733 million on a turnover of just £490,000; yet within three days the share price had halved.