The document summarizes recent economic indicators from Europe, the US, Japan, and Germany. It reports that GDP growth forecasts for the EU and Japan were revised downward for 2012 and 2013, while forecasts improved slightly for the US. The German economy remains resilient despite the euro crisis, while the outlook for the EU deteriorates. Unemployment in the EU continues to edge higher.

1. Economic Indicators
Last update 12.12.2012
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2. Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – November 2012
Europe:
• Consensus November GDP forecast for WE improved from -0,3% to -0,2% for 2012 and
decreased from 0,4% to 0,3% for 2013.
• Both, the EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence indicator improved in October.
• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose again after six successive decreases. Both,
the current business situation and the future business development were accessed somewhat
less pessimistic. The German economy is holding up in the face of the euro crisis.
• Euro zone recovery prospects remain distant as unemployment edges higher and the outlook
for 2013 deteriorates. The resilience previously displayed by Germany has eroded.
US:
• Consensus November GDP forecast for the US improved from 2,1% to 2,2% for 2012 and
decreased from 2,0% to 1,9% for 2013.
• Growth edged up to 2% q-o-q in Q3, but the 2013 outlook remains clouded by adverse fiscal
fundamentals and the ‘Fiscal Cliff’ looming. GDP growth in Q4 will likely be hurt by hurricane
Sandy.
Japan:
• The November GDP growth forecast for Japan decreased again considerably from 2,3% to
1,8% for 2012 and from 1,3% to 0,8% for 2013.
• Japanese GDP forecasts have been significantly downgraded, driven in part by a collapse in
Q3 production.
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3. Eurostat Data
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4. Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
06Q1
'07Q1
12 Q1
'11 Q1
'08 Q1
'09 Q1
'10 Q1
GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs same quarter of last year
Source: Eurostat Nov 12
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5. Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
'06Q1
'07Q1
'11 Q1
'08 Q1
'09 Q1
'10 Q1
12 Q1
GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
Source: Eurostat Nov 12
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6. Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index
4.5
4
3.5
3 2.6
2.5
% 2
1.5
1
0.5
0
'11/1
'08/1
'09/1
'10/1
12/1
The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration
between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.
Source: Eurostat Nov 12
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7. Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate
5,5
5,0
4,5
4,0
3,5
3,0 Nov.12; 2,2
2,5
2,0 Eurozone inflation
1,5
FED rate Dec 12; 0,75
1,0
0,5 ECB short-term rate Dec 12; 0,25
0,0
-0,5
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
July 08
Jul.09
Jul.10
July 11
Jul.12
Source: ECB, FED Dec 12
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8. Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate
11
10.7
10
9
8
7
6
Jan 11
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 12
Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries
Source: Eurostat Dec 12
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9. Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU
Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved in November.
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
Jan 11
Jan 06
Jan 07
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 12
The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the
questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.
Source: Eurostat Dec 12
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10. Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU
Consumer Confidence within EU 27 improved slightly in November.
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
Jan 11
Jan 06
Jan 07
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 12
The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions
on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)
together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.
Source: Eurostat Dec 12
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11. Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization
in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27
85
80
75
%
70
65
60
0…
0…
0…
0…
0…
0…
1…
1…
1…
The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization
in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.
Source: Eurostat Nov 12
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12. Ifo Data
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13. Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate
The Ifo World Economic climate worsened again in the 4th quarter 2012
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Source: IFO Nov 12
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14. Economic Indicators – IFO WE Economic Climate
The economic climate for Western Europe worsened again in the
4th quarter 2012.
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Source: IFO Nov 12
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15. Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Source: IFO Nov 12
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16. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area
GDP growth for 2012 was revised downwards from the December forecast.
Source: IFO Jul 12
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17. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany
Source: IFO Jul 12
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18. Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €
Source: IFO Dec 12
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19. Economic Indicators –
Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations
Business situation 6 months expectations
125 115
120 110
115 105
110 100
105
95
100
95 90
90 85
85 80
80 75
Jan 11
Jan 11
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 12
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 12
The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose again after six successive decreases.
Companies expressed slightly greater satisfaction with their current business situation.
They also were far less pessimistic about future business developments. The German
economy is holding up in the face of the euro crisis.
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation
of the economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the
companies for the next 6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.
Source: IFO Dec 12
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20. Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current
Business Situation
The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose again after six successive decreases.
Companies expressed slightly greater satisfaction with their current business situation.
They also were far less pessimistic about future business developments. The German
economy is holding up in the face of the euro crisis.
Source: IFO Dec 12
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21. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
The business climate within the printing industry deteriorated from +1 to -9 in November.
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Source: IFO Dec 12, bundesverband druck und medien
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22. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
Business Development at German Printers – November 12:
 The assessment of the current business situation in the
printing industry remained on the same level like in October
with+12%, in November 2011 the value was slightly lower with
+8%.
 The business climate – an indicator for the development in
the next quarter – decreased from +1% to -9%, worse than in the
same month last year (-3%).
 The business expectations for the coming 6 months decreased
considerably from -9% to -28%..
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Source: IFO Dec 12, bundesverband druck und medien
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23. Zenith Data
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24. Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
 Global ad expenditure forecast to strengthen over the next three years,
rising from 3,3 % in 2012 to 4,1% in 2013 and 5,6% in 2015
 Peripheral Eurozone to shrink 4,0% in 2013, stabilize in 2014 and grow
2% in 2015
 Developing markets to contribute 61% of adspend growth between
2012 and 2015 and increase their share of global adspend from 34% to
37%
 Online video and social media to help drive 20% annual growth in
internet display over the next three years
 Internet advertising to exceed combined newspaper and magazine total
in 2015
Source: Zenith 12/12
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25. Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
At current prices
Source: Zenith 12/12
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26. Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
Source: Zenith 12/12
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