2. | Economic Indicators |
2
Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – October 2014
Europe:
•Consensus November GDP forecast for WE came down once again by 0,1%point to 1,2% for 2014 and remained stable on 1,5% for 2015.
•The EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence both improved slightly in October.
•The IFO Business Climate index for Germany again fell in October – the outlook for the German economy continued to deteriorate.
•The ECB left interest rates unchanged at 0,05% on November 6, with Mario Draghi indicating that the bank is working on additional measures to loosen monetary conditions. Deflationary pressures are threatening regional GDP fundamentals.
US:
•Consensus November GDP forecast for the US remained on 2,2% for 2014 and came down from 3,1% to now 3,0% for 2015.
•The FED announced the end of its bond-buying program in late October, halting nearly six years of aggressive monetary policy since the onset of the Great Recession in 2008. This latest decisions points to confidence in the recovery, although interest rates will be left at 0,25% for some time.
Japan:
•The November GDP growth forecast for Japan came down from 1,1% to 1,0% for 2014 and improved from 1,2% to 1,3% for 2015.
•The Bank of Japan expanded its quantitative easing program on October 31. This was viewed as admission that GDP growth and inflation have not picked up as much as expected. April’s sales tax hike certainly dented GDP.
4. | Economic Indicators |
4
Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28
Source: Eurostat Nov 14
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
08 Q1
09 Q1
10 Q1
11 Q1
12 Q1
13 Q1
14 Q1
%
GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year
5. | Economic Indicators |
5
Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28
Source: Eurostat Nov 14
-2,5
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
08 Q1
09 Q1
10 Q1
11 Q1
12 Q1
13 Q1
14 Q1
%
GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
6. | Economic Indicators |
6
Economic Indicators –EU 28 Consumer Price Index
Source: Eurostat Nov 14
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
08/1
09/1
10/1
11/1
12/1
13/1
14/1
15/1
0,5
%
The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration
between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.
7. 7 | Economic Indicators |
Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate
Source: ECB, FED, Eurostat Nov 14
Oct ; 0,4
Nov ; 0,05
Nov ; 0,25
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
Jan 08
July 08
Jan 09
Jul.09
Jan 10
Jul.10
Jan 11
July 11
Jan 12
Jul.12
Jan 13
Jul.13
Jan 14
Jul.14
Jan 15
%
ECB short-term rate
Eurozone inflation
FED rate
8. | Economic Indicators |
8
Economic Indicators –EU 28 Unemployment Rate
Source: Eurostat Nov 14
10,1
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
Jan 15
%
Unemployment rate for EU 28 countries
9. | Economic Indicators |
9
Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Nov 14
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
Jan 15
Industrial confidence within EU 28 improved slightly in October, breaking the downwards trend of the previous months.
The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the
questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.
10. | Economic Indicators |
10
Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Nov 14
Consumer Confidence within EU 28 improved slightly in October, breaking the negative trend of the previous months.
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
Jan 15
The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions
on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)
together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.
11. | Economic Indicators |
11
Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27
Source: Eurostat Nov 14
60
65
70
75
80
85
04Q1
05Q1
06Q1
07Q1
08Q1
09Q1
10Q1
11Q1
12Q1
13Q1
14Q1
80,3
%
The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization
in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.
13. | Economic Indicators |
13
Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate
Source: IFO Nov 14
The Ifo World Economic climate deteriorated in Q4 2014. The upswing in the world
Economy is suffering a setback.
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
14. | Economic Indicators |
14
Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate
Source: IFO Nov 14
The economic climate in Europe showed a marked decline in Q4 2014.
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
15. | Economic Indicators |
15
Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate
Source: IFO Nov 14
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
16. | Economic Indicators |
16
Economic Indicators – IFO Asia Economic Climate
Source: IFO Nov 14
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
17. | Economic Indicators |
17
Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area
Source: IFO Oct 14
18. | Economic Indicators |
18
Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany
Source: IFO Oct 14
20. | Economic Indicators |
20
Economic Indicators – Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations
Source: IFO Nov 14
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
Jan 15
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
Jan 15
Business situation
6 months expectations
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next 6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany continued to fall in October. Assessments of the current business situation were once again less favorable than last month. Expectations with regard to the six-month business outlook continued to cloud over. The outlook for the German economy deteriorated once again.
21. | Economic Indicators |
21
Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current Business Situation
Source: IFO Nov 14
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany continued to fall in October. Assessments of the current business situation were once again less favorable than last month. Expectations with regard to the six-month business outlook continued to cloud over. The outlook for the German economy deteriorated once again.
22. | Economic Indicators |
22
Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry
Source: IFO Nov 14, bundesverband druck und medien
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
Jan 15
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
The business climate within the printing industry deteriorated from +7 to -6 in October
23. | Economic Indicators |
23
Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Business Development at German Printers – October 2014:
The assessment of the current business situation in the printing industry decreased somewhat from +21 to now +17, keeping its second highest level since the begin of the year.
The business climate – an indicator for the development in the next quarter – came down by 13%points.
The business expectations for the coming 6 months deteriorated significantly
Source: IFO Nov 14, bundesverband druck und medien
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Economic Indicators
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