16. Luther wanted an academic debate
The translation of the 95 Theses into German set
off a firestorm
The impact was much broader than just
theological
Why does this matter?
17. Immense increase in literacy
Drastic change in church services
Expanded educational opportunities for all
(including women and children)
Opening Scripture to laymen
Emphasis on marriage and the family
Cultural
20. Europe became politically fragmented along
religious lines
Rejection of religious “authorities” by monarchs
Many citizens challenging the idea of “divine
right” of monarchs
Secularization of politics (separation of church
and state)
Weakening of the Holy Roman Empire and rise of
the nation-states
A lot of wars
Rise of Capitalism
Economic and Political
21. Rise of individualism—economic, political, and
social
Encouragement of intellectualism and the
renaissance
Strengthened middle class
Poor classes began to demand reforms for
themselves
Rise of a more democratic vs. feudal form of
government across Europe
Social
24. Left-hand Kingdom Right-hand Kingdom
Kingdom of Man (State) Kingdom of God (Church)
Law Gospel
Sword: Internal and External Word, no sword
Power Grace
Exists for Order and Justice Exists for Mercy
External Righteousness Internal Righteousness
Realm of Morals Realm of Faith
Ruled by Reason Ruled by Scripture
Two Kingdoms Theology
30. Most millennials (51%) believe in economic
freedom, limited taxes and government, and
entrepreneurialism
Most millennials (62%) believe in “social justice”
and consider themselves “liberal” on social issues
In other words… most millennials could be
considered libertarian… in fact, 53% said they
would vote for a fiscally conservative, socially
liberal candidate
Millennials weight social issues as a higher
priority than fiscal issues – that’s where our battle
lies
Millennials in Politics
34. Don’t talk down
Don’t “know-it-all”
Don’t pander
Don’t be inconsistent
Don’t be a hypocrite
Remember: Millennials are the first generation to
grow up with microtargeted advertisement from a
very young age – they know how to spot BS when
they hear it
Messaging to Millennials
35. Do be honest
Do be upfront
Do be concise
Do appeal to both sides of the brain
Do stand your ground
Do realize you aren’t going to change someone’s
opinion on the first contact or overnight
Do build credibility by building a relationship
Messaging to Millennials
36. Do not start out by talking about religion – social
issues are moral issues first, not necessarily faith
issues.
Ask questions first – and listen. You’ll surprise
them. Millennials want to be heard and
understood.
Understand that millennials’ education has been
drastically more liberal than previous generations.
Understand that millennials are accustomed to
instant gratification.
How to Talk Social Issues
37. Access to information is much more readily
available to millennials than any other generation
before.
Be ready and willing to agree to disagree, and not
argue minutia. Go in with the understanding that
you will not come out with 100% agreement.
Follow up. Planting seeds now can reap
significant fruits in 1, 5, or even 10 years.
This is the narcissistic generation. Convincing
them that they are wrong is a long-term project.
How to Talk Social Issues
40. “People of your sort are
hirelings, dumb dogs unable
to bark, who see the wolf
coming and flee or, rather,
join up with the wolf.”
{ Rev. Dr. Martin Luther
Against Latomus
41. “You moderate enforcer and
eulogizer of moderation. You are
one of those bloody and deceitful
people who affect modesty in words
and appearance, but who meanwhile
breathe out threats and blood.”
{ Rev. Dr. Martin Luther
Against Latomus
42. “Your words are so foolishly
and ignorantly composed
that I cannot believe you
understood them.”
{ Rev. Dr. Martin Luther
Explanations of the 95 Theses
43. “If you who are assembled in a council are
so frivolous and irresponsible as to waste
time and money on unnecessary questions,
when it is the business of the council to deal
only with the important and necessary
matters, we should not only refuse to obey
you, but consider you insane or criminals.”
{ Rev. Dr. Martin Luther
Defense and Explanation of All the
Articles
46. 48 points of data in 15 categories per district
15 categories condensed into one number: District
Rating
7 point scale:
1 = Democratic Party Pick-up
2 = Strong Democratic Party Performance
3 = Leans Democratic Party
4 = Toss-up
5 = Leans Republican Party
6 = Strong Republican Party Performance
7 = Republican Party Pick-up
Methodology
47. Polling
Money raised
Total registered voters
Active registered voters
Past district performance
Unique circumstances in 2014
Methodology
48. 101 total seats up in 2014
1 – 2
2 – 34
3 – 12
4 – 13 (2 no call / 5 leans R / 6 leans D)
5 – 6
6 – 35
7 – 0
Overall Numbers
49. Fun with Numbers
97%
96%
83%
38%
77%
57%
Accuracy of this model in predicting results in 2012
Republican candidates (4)
Democratic candidates (17)
3rd Party candidates (63)
3rd Party in competitive seats (10)
3rd Party in non-statewide/congressional competitive seats (4)
50. All Statewide (Gov, US Senate, AG, SoS,
Treasurer) – 3D/2R
Congressional District 6 – no call
State Senate Districts 5, 16, 19, 20, 24 – 1 no
call/1R/3D
State House Districts 47, 59 – 2R
Toss-up Seats
51. Statewide: 3D/2R (one loss)
Congressional: 3D/3R/1TU (no change/one loss)
CU Regents: 5R/4D (no change)
State Board of Education: 4R/3D (no change)
State Senate: 18D/16R/1TU (no change/one loss)
State House: 36D/29R (gain of one)
Overall Results Predictions
52. Supreme Court
Justice Boatright: RETAIN
Justice Marquez: NOT RETAIN
Appeals Court
Judge Fox: NOT RETAIN
Judge Loeb: NOT RETAIN
Judicial Recommendations
53. Amendment 67: no recommendation
Amendment 68: NO
Proposition 104: YES
Proposition 105: NO
Ballot Initiative
Recommendations
55. Sarah Arnold
Phone: (719) 640-6534
Email: politicsinthetrenches@gmail.com
Web: www.politicalpessimist.com
Facebook: Sarah Marie Arnold
Twitter: @smarnold89
Contact Me!