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Sermetcan Baysal
Modeling Scientist – Engineering
What do Wine and AI have
in common?
Ronan Lundy
Head of Corp. Sales, Central Europe
Pieter Van Rekom
Team Lead, BNLX
How Technology is Disrupting Marketing
01
AI in the Marketing Ecosystem
02
Leveraging Behavioural Insights
03
What we have learned
04
Questions
05
Trends
Brands are facing a growth crisis.
259 Companies Decline
- 9% Average
Revenue
Declined
ways
technology
is disrupting
marketing.
Key Trends in
Marketing:
Key Trend
01
Audiences are
divorced from
media.
AU D IEN C ESMED IA
AUDIENCESMED IA
Key Trend
02
Brands
are
disconnected
from consumers.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++
Entire
Internet
Does % of Digital Ad SpendEqual % Share of Internet Audience
Are you
all of your audience?
understandinginfluencingconvertingmeasuring
Key Trend
03 Brands are
drowning in
data and
technology.
Brands are drowning in data and technology.03
Big Data
ATDs
Account Scoring
DMP
Programmatic
Big Data
DSP
ATDs
ATDs
Data Warehouse
DMP Big Data
Big Data
ProgrammaticProgrammatic
Marketing Automation
DSP
Big Data
Sales Automation
DMP
Big Data
Data Aggregators
DMP Big Data
Recommendation Engines
Predictive Lead Scoring
Website Optimization
Programmatic ATDs DSP
DSPMarketing Automation
Brands are drowning in data and technology.03
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Epiphany
Insights
Information
Data
How are you climbing
the marketer’s hierarchy
of intelligence?
AI
Key Trend
04
AI —
Hype, yes.
Real impact
now, yes.
Sermetcan Baysal
Modeling Scientist – Engineering
sbaysal@quantcast.com
How machines
choose the best
wine for you
20
© 2019 Quantcast. Confidential.
What is machine learning?
21
Cat
Dog
Bird
Lion
“Siberian Husky
sitting on a beach”
© 2019 Quantcast. Confidential.
Machines learning to recognize images
22
© 2019 Quantcast. Confidential.
Machines learning to recognize speech and translate
23
© 2019 Quantcast. Confidential.
That’s what I do.
I drink and
I know things.
Tyrion Lannister
FictionalCharacter–Gameof Thrones
Machines learning to choose wine for you
24
Why are machines
better than you
at choosing wine?
25
Data Model Decision
y = 2x + 1
© 2019 Quantcast. Confidential.
x → y
1 → 3
2 → 5
3 → 7
5 → ?
Systematically turning data into decisions
26
© 2019 Quantcast. Confidential.
Collecting wine data and defining features
fixed acidity
volatile acidity
citric acid
residual sugar
chlorides
free sulfur dioxide
total sulfur dioxide
density
pH
sulphates
alcohol
5.10 g/dm3
0.12 g/dm3
0.00 g/dm3
1.20 g/dm3
0.04 g/dm3
3.00 mg/dm3
8.00 mg/dm3
0.99 g/cm3
2.88
0.37 g/dm3
9.00 %
13.3 g/dm3
1.02 g/dm3
0.76 g/dm3
6.70 g/dm3
0.22 g/dm3
45.0 mg/dm3
144 mg/dm3
1.01 g/cm3
3.72
1.13 g/dm3
15.0 %
Like?
yes no
residual sugar
53%
volatile acidity
𝑣𝑜𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑒 𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦 = 0.5
alcohol
sulphates
𝑠𝑢𝑙𝑝ℎ𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠 = 0.25 𝑎𝑙𝑐𝑜ℎ𝑜𝑙 + 3.32
72% 84%
27
© 2019 Quantcast. Confidential.
Using simple math to model wine taste
28
fixed acidity
volatile acidity
citric acid
residual sugar
chlorides
free sulfur dioxide
total sulfur dioxide
density
pH
sulphates
alcohol
© 2019 Quantcast. Confidential.
Autonomous drawing of the decision boundary
90%
© 2019 Quantcast. Confidential.
fixed acidity
volatile acidity
citric acid
residual sugar
chlorides
free sulfur dioxide
total sulfur dioxide
density
pH
sulphates
alcohol
29
Using predictive models to make decisions
© 2019 Quantcast. Confidential.
How does
machine learning
apply to advertising?
© 2019 Quantcast. Confidential.
3131
glassdoor.com
buzzfeed.com
Gathering internet scale 1st party data
politico.com/brexit
fandom.com/game-of-thrones
gizmodo.com/smart-watch
tasty.co/search?q=vanilla+ice+cream
vogue.com/fashion/weddings
king.com/games/candy-crush
allmusic.com/artists/queen
lastminute.com/city/reykjavik
32
© 2019 Quantcast. Internal Only.
Autonomous predictive modeling for each product
Wine
Buy
Event
Buy
Travel
Buy
50
million distinct
online behaviors
33
© 2019 Quantcast. Internal Only.
Finding behavioral patterns leading to conversions
pasta
vanilla ice cream
lemon sorbet
sea food
herbaceous
ripe fruits
Pinot Gris Oaked
Chardonnay
pasta
vanilla ice cream
lemon sorbet
sea food
herbaceous
ripe fruits
34
© 2019 Quantcast. Internal Only.
cherry
black coffee
latte
black currant
pizza
spicy
grilled meat
high income
Merlot Cabernet
Sauvignon
cherry
black coffee
latte
black currant
pizza
spicy
grilled meat
high income
Finding behavioral patterns leading to conversions
35
© 2019 Quantcast. Confidential.
Finding your target audience on open internet
Wine
Buy
Event
Buy
Travel
Buy
Model
Scoring
Pricing
Algorithms
Intelligent
Bidding
Learns the online behavioral
blueprints of your customers
Finds patterns in massive data to
make decisions at scale
Offers personalized product
recommendation on open internet
36
© 2019 Quantcast. Confidential.
Machine learning…
© 2 0 1 8 Q U A N T C A S T , C O N F I D E N T I A L
Understand
Your
Audience
Proprietary Data
1
Real-time2
Volume
3
How good is
my data?
Basic reporting can
tell you what your
users did.
What you’re
missing.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
36.70%
63.30%
Male Female
Age Gender
Customers
11.49%
Age: 55-64 Income: $$
organic dog food
Age: 35-44 Income: $$
movie tickets Age: 25-34 Income: $$$
flights from SFO
Insights tell you who
they are, what drives
them, and how those
drivers change over
time.
Insights
Go deeper with our comprehensive, any time
reporting. Maximize ROI with path-to-conversion
insights, time-of-day conversion analysis and
robust demographic and lifestyle insights.
Powerful insights include:
• Website Traffic
• Demographics
• Conversion Analysis
• Audience Interests
• Media Consumption
• Prospecting Insights
• Search Behavior
• Performance
© 2 0 1 8 Q U A N T C A S T , C O N F I D E N T I A L
Real Time
Audience Insights
What does
my audience
look like?
© 2 0 1 8 Q U A N T C A S T , C O N F I D E N T I A L
What is my
audience
searching
for?
© 2 0 1 8 Q U A N T C A S T , C O N F I D E N T I A L
How is my
website being
interacted
with and
consumed?
© 2 0 1 8 Q U A N T C A S T , C O N F I D E N T I A L
© 2 0 1 8 Q U A N T C A S T , C O N F I D E N T I A L
Dig a little deeper.
© 2 0 1 8 Q U A N T C A S T , C O N F I D E N T I A L
Who is interested in
Mother’s Day and what
are they looking for?
© 2 0 1 8 Q U A N T C A S T , C O N F I D E N T I A L
We see interest in
Mother’s day as far as 2
months in advance
Top searches for Mother’s Day category
© 2 0 1 8 Q U A N T C A S T , C O N F I D E N T I A L
TOP GIFTS TOP LEISURE ACTIVITIES
Purchases are split into gifts & leisure activities
© 2 0 1 9 Q U A N T C A S T , C O N F I D E N T I A L
Who is interested and what are
they looking for around Easter?
© 2 0 1 9 Q U A N T C A S T , C O N F I D E N T I A L
FAMILY FOCUSSED LEISURE FOCUSSED
Our research shows there is two different in-market audiences
Male 53% (i107)
18-34 51% (i128)
Uni- 46% (i104)
HHI <£30k 50% (i107)
Has Kids 59% (i128)
Female 57% (i113)
18-34 44% (i110)
Uni+ 51% (i122)
HHI £50k+ 27% (i130)
No Kids 52% (i104)
Marketers and agencies
can stop drowning in data
and get real insights that
drive meaningful
business decisions.
from machines
What we’ve learned
© 2019 Quantcast
Copyright © 2019 Quantcast - Confidential. All Rights Reserved.
What we learned through ML
01
The make-up of
temporary
audiences
© 2019 Quantcast
© 2019 Quantcast
Quantcast
reaches
mums-to-be
for Bugaboo
40%Additional uplift with localized
creative vs standard message
7MM
30%Uplift in purchase intent
among target audience
New in-target
prospects reached
Customer Story
Copyright © 2019 Quantcast - Confidential. All Rights Reserved.
What we learned through ML
02
Online
amplifying
offline
campaigns
© 2019 Quantcast
© 2019 Quantcast
Nissan attracts
niche audience
of tattoo lovers
73%Viewability Rate
33%Higher reach through
extending targeting pools
Customer Story
Copyright © 2019 Quantcast - Confidential. All Rights Reserved.
What we learned through ML
03 Keeping up
with
changing
audiences
© 2019 Quantcast
© 2019 Quantcast
Audience profile of German
internet users searching for Alexa
Uncover impacts
of external
factors to your
online audience
Insights Story
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Male
Female
16-19 yrs
20-29 yrs
30-39 yrs
40-49 yrs
50-59 yrs
>60 yrs
KidsNo Kids
< 1K EUR
1K-2K EUR
2K-3K EUR
3K-4K EUR
>4K EUR
No
University
University
January 2019
© 2019 Quantcast
Uncover impacts
of external
factors to your
online audience
Insights Story
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Male
Female
16-19 yrs
20-29 yrs
30-39 yrs
40-49 yrs
50-59 yrs
>60 yrs
KidsNo Kids
< 1K EUR
1K-2K EUR
2K-3K EUR
3K-4K EUR
>4K EUR
No
University
University
January 2019 March 2019
Audience profile of German
internet users searching for Alexa
AI is more than just a hype
01
02
ML can solve problems at scale
03
ML continuously learns
04
ML identifies real decision drivers
05
Focus for humans will shift
Key takeaways
© 2019 Quantcast
Meet us on the ground floor
Thank you &
© 2019 Quantcast

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What do wine and AI have in common - Ronan Lundy, Quantcast

  • 1.
  • 2. Sermetcan Baysal Modeling Scientist – Engineering What do Wine and AI have in common? Ronan Lundy Head of Corp. Sales, Central Europe Pieter Van Rekom Team Lead, BNLX
  • 3. How Technology is Disrupting Marketing 01 AI in the Marketing Ecosystem 02 Leveraging Behavioural Insights 03 What we have learned 04 Questions 05
  • 5. Brands are facing a growth crisis. 259 Companies Decline - 9% Average Revenue Declined
  • 8. AU D IEN C ESMED IA
  • 12. Entire Internet Does % of Digital Ad SpendEqual % Share of Internet Audience
  • 13. Are you all of your audience? understandinginfluencingconvertingmeasuring
  • 14. Key Trend 03 Brands are drowning in data and technology.
  • 15. Brands are drowning in data and technology.03
  • 16. Big Data ATDs Account Scoring DMP Programmatic Big Data DSP ATDs ATDs Data Warehouse DMP Big Data Big Data ProgrammaticProgrammatic Marketing Automation DSP Big Data Sales Automation DMP Big Data Data Aggregators DMP Big Data Recommendation Engines Predictive Lead Scoring Website Optimization Programmatic ATDs DSP DSPMarketing Automation Brands are drowning in data and technology.03
  • 18. Key Trend 04 AI — Hype, yes. Real impact now, yes.
  • 19. Sermetcan Baysal Modeling Scientist – Engineering sbaysal@quantcast.com How machines choose the best wine for you
  • 20. 20 © 2019 Quantcast. Confidential. What is machine learning?
  • 21. 21 Cat Dog Bird Lion “Siberian Husky sitting on a beach” © 2019 Quantcast. Confidential. Machines learning to recognize images
  • 22. 22 © 2019 Quantcast. Confidential. Machines learning to recognize speech and translate
  • 23. 23 © 2019 Quantcast. Confidential. That’s what I do. I drink and I know things. Tyrion Lannister FictionalCharacter–Gameof Thrones Machines learning to choose wine for you
  • 24. 24 Why are machines better than you at choosing wine?
  • 25. 25 Data Model Decision y = 2x + 1 © 2019 Quantcast. Confidential. x → y 1 → 3 2 → 5 3 → 7 5 → ? Systematically turning data into decisions
  • 26. 26 © 2019 Quantcast. Confidential. Collecting wine data and defining features fixed acidity volatile acidity citric acid residual sugar chlorides free sulfur dioxide total sulfur dioxide density pH sulphates alcohol 5.10 g/dm3 0.12 g/dm3 0.00 g/dm3 1.20 g/dm3 0.04 g/dm3 3.00 mg/dm3 8.00 mg/dm3 0.99 g/cm3 2.88 0.37 g/dm3 9.00 % 13.3 g/dm3 1.02 g/dm3 0.76 g/dm3 6.70 g/dm3 0.22 g/dm3 45.0 mg/dm3 144 mg/dm3 1.01 g/cm3 3.72 1.13 g/dm3 15.0 % Like? yes no
  • 27. residual sugar 53% volatile acidity 𝑣𝑜𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑒 𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦 = 0.5 alcohol sulphates 𝑠𝑢𝑙𝑝ℎ𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠 = 0.25 𝑎𝑙𝑐𝑜ℎ𝑜𝑙 + 3.32 72% 84% 27 © 2019 Quantcast. Confidential. Using simple math to model wine taste
  • 28. 28 fixed acidity volatile acidity citric acid residual sugar chlorides free sulfur dioxide total sulfur dioxide density pH sulphates alcohol © 2019 Quantcast. Confidential. Autonomous drawing of the decision boundary 90%
  • 29. © 2019 Quantcast. Confidential. fixed acidity volatile acidity citric acid residual sugar chlorides free sulfur dioxide total sulfur dioxide density pH sulphates alcohol 29 Using predictive models to make decisions
  • 30. © 2019 Quantcast. Confidential. How does machine learning apply to advertising?
  • 31. © 2019 Quantcast. Confidential. 3131 glassdoor.com buzzfeed.com Gathering internet scale 1st party data politico.com/brexit fandom.com/game-of-thrones gizmodo.com/smart-watch tasty.co/search?q=vanilla+ice+cream vogue.com/fashion/weddings king.com/games/candy-crush allmusic.com/artists/queen lastminute.com/city/reykjavik
  • 32. 32 © 2019 Quantcast. Internal Only. Autonomous predictive modeling for each product Wine Buy Event Buy Travel Buy 50 million distinct online behaviors
  • 33. 33 © 2019 Quantcast. Internal Only. Finding behavioral patterns leading to conversions pasta vanilla ice cream lemon sorbet sea food herbaceous ripe fruits Pinot Gris Oaked Chardonnay pasta vanilla ice cream lemon sorbet sea food herbaceous ripe fruits
  • 34. 34 © 2019 Quantcast. Internal Only. cherry black coffee latte black currant pizza spicy grilled meat high income Merlot Cabernet Sauvignon cherry black coffee latte black currant pizza spicy grilled meat high income Finding behavioral patterns leading to conversions
  • 35. 35 © 2019 Quantcast. Confidential. Finding your target audience on open internet Wine Buy Event Buy Travel Buy Model Scoring Pricing Algorithms Intelligent Bidding
  • 36. Learns the online behavioral blueprints of your customers Finds patterns in massive data to make decisions at scale Offers personalized product recommendation on open internet 36 © 2019 Quantcast. Confidential. Machine learning…
  • 37. © 2 0 1 8 Q U A N T C A S T , C O N F I D E N T I A L Understand Your Audience
  • 39. Basic reporting can tell you what your users did. What you’re missing. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 36.70% 63.30% Male Female Age Gender Customers 11.49% Age: 55-64 Income: $$ organic dog food Age: 35-44 Income: $$ movie tickets Age: 25-34 Income: $$$ flights from SFO Insights tell you who they are, what drives them, and how those drivers change over time.
  • 40. Insights Go deeper with our comprehensive, any time reporting. Maximize ROI with path-to-conversion insights, time-of-day conversion analysis and robust demographic and lifestyle insights. Powerful insights include: • Website Traffic • Demographics • Conversion Analysis • Audience Interests • Media Consumption • Prospecting Insights • Search Behavior • Performance © 2 0 1 8 Q U A N T C A S T , C O N F I D E N T I A L
  • 42. What does my audience look like? © 2 0 1 8 Q U A N T C A S T , C O N F I D E N T I A L
  • 43. What is my audience searching for? © 2 0 1 8 Q U A N T C A S T , C O N F I D E N T I A L
  • 44. How is my website being interacted with and consumed? © 2 0 1 8 Q U A N T C A S T , C O N F I D E N T I A L
  • 45. © 2 0 1 8 Q U A N T C A S T , C O N F I D E N T I A L Dig a little deeper.
  • 46. © 2 0 1 8 Q U A N T C A S T , C O N F I D E N T I A L Who is interested in Mother’s Day and what are they looking for?
  • 47. © 2 0 1 8 Q U A N T C A S T , C O N F I D E N T I A L We see interest in Mother’s day as far as 2 months in advance Top searches for Mother’s Day category
  • 48. © 2 0 1 8 Q U A N T C A S T , C O N F I D E N T I A L TOP GIFTS TOP LEISURE ACTIVITIES Purchases are split into gifts & leisure activities
  • 49. © 2 0 1 9 Q U A N T C A S T , C O N F I D E N T I A L Who is interested and what are they looking for around Easter?
  • 50. © 2 0 1 9 Q U A N T C A S T , C O N F I D E N T I A L FAMILY FOCUSSED LEISURE FOCUSSED Our research shows there is two different in-market audiences Male 53% (i107) 18-34 51% (i128) Uni- 46% (i104) HHI <£30k 50% (i107) Has Kids 59% (i128) Female 57% (i113) 18-34 44% (i110) Uni+ 51% (i122) HHI £50k+ 27% (i130) No Kids 52% (i104)
  • 51. Marketers and agencies can stop drowning in data and get real insights that drive meaningful business decisions.
  • 52. from machines What we’ve learned © 2019 Quantcast
  • 53. Copyright © 2019 Quantcast - Confidential. All Rights Reserved. What we learned through ML 01 The make-up of temporary audiences © 2019 Quantcast
  • 54. © 2019 Quantcast Quantcast reaches mums-to-be for Bugaboo 40%Additional uplift with localized creative vs standard message 7MM 30%Uplift in purchase intent among target audience New in-target prospects reached Customer Story
  • 55. Copyright © 2019 Quantcast - Confidential. All Rights Reserved. What we learned through ML 02 Online amplifying offline campaigns © 2019 Quantcast
  • 56. © 2019 Quantcast Nissan attracts niche audience of tattoo lovers 73%Viewability Rate 33%Higher reach through extending targeting pools Customer Story
  • 57. Copyright © 2019 Quantcast - Confidential. All Rights Reserved. What we learned through ML 03 Keeping up with changing audiences © 2019 Quantcast
  • 58. © 2019 Quantcast Audience profile of German internet users searching for Alexa Uncover impacts of external factors to your online audience Insights Story 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Male Female 16-19 yrs 20-29 yrs 30-39 yrs 40-49 yrs 50-59 yrs >60 yrs KidsNo Kids < 1K EUR 1K-2K EUR 2K-3K EUR 3K-4K EUR >4K EUR No University University January 2019
  • 59. © 2019 Quantcast Uncover impacts of external factors to your online audience Insights Story 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Male Female 16-19 yrs 20-29 yrs 30-39 yrs 40-49 yrs 50-59 yrs >60 yrs KidsNo Kids < 1K EUR 1K-2K EUR 2K-3K EUR 3K-4K EUR >4K EUR No University University January 2019 March 2019 Audience profile of German internet users searching for Alexa
  • 60. AI is more than just a hype 01 02 ML can solve problems at scale 03 ML continuously learns 04 ML identifies real decision drivers 05 Focus for humans will shift Key takeaways © 2019 Quantcast
  • 61. Meet us on the ground floor Thank you & © 2019 Quantcast