The document contains implied probabilities for settlement prices of WTI crude oil between 2017 and 2020 based on futures market data from June 2, 2017. It shows the estimated probabilities of prices falling within different ranges, such as between $60-70 per barrel, each year out through 2020. For example, in 2017 there was a 64% probability of prices being between $60-70, with risks of prices falling below $60 or above $70 also shown.

1. Harry.Briggs@ScenarioKnow.com
38.05
29.24
24.72
22.20
43.39
38.49
35.32 33.54
48.11 48.59 48.45 48.93
52.27
56.51
58.04
59.54
59.92
74.60
82.98
90.02
0
20
40
60
80
100
2017 2018 2019 2020
IMPLIED WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE SETTLEMENT PROBABILITIES, 06-02-17
5th Percentile 25th Percentile Futures 75th Percentile 95th Percentile

2. IMPLIED WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE SETTLEMENT PROBABILITIES, 06-02-17
2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
0% 6% 10% 29% 64% 60% 95% 81% 100% 92% 100% 97% 100% 99% 100% 99%
2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
12% 15% 36% 37% 59% 57% 76% 73% 87% 82% 93% 88% 96% 92% 97% 94%
2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
10% 23% 64% 54% 95% 75% 100% 86% 100% 91% 100% 93% 100% 94%
2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
24% 22% 47% 43% 65% 58% 75% 68% 81% 74% 84% 78% 85% 80%
2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
54% 30% 85% 52% 90% 63% 90% 68% 90% 69% 90% 70%
2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
24% 21% 41% 36% 51% 46% 57% 52% 60% 55% 62% 57%
2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
31% 21% 36% 33% 36% 37% 36% 39% 36% 40%
2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
17% 15% 28% 25% 33% 31% 36% 35% 38% 37%
2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
5% 11% 5% 16% 5% 18% 5% 18%
2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
10% 10% 16% 16% 19% 19% 21% 22%
2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
0% 5% 0% 7% 0% 7%
2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
6% 6% 9% 10% 10% 12%
2017 2018 2017 2018
0% 2% 0% 3%
2019 2020 2019 2020
3% 4% 5% 6%
2017 2018
0% 1%
2019 2020
2% 2%
B
E
T
W
E
E
N
AND
$60
$70
$80
$90
$90 $100
$20
$30
$40
$50
$30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80
Harry.Briggs@ScenarioKnow.com