4. 1Q: More than 94% of acreage sold outside Beltway
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Total Outside 610 Outside Beltway Inside Beltway Inside 610
Source: CoStar, CASE CommercialSource: CoStar, CASE Commercial, 1Q2014
5. Inner Loop Land Sales Slow, but Remain Strong
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Source: CoStar, CASE CommercialSource: CoStar, CASE Commercial, 1Q2014
9. What Does the Future Hold?
• Houston will continue to grow dramatically
because of jobs
• Our demographic makeup is changing
significantly
• Buyers want urban and suburban home options
• It needs to come from the market: declining
support for urban land use policies
10. Houston is expected to lead the state and nation
in population and employment growth between
’12 and ’40
6.2
6.6
7.2
7.9
8.6
9.4
10.2
2.8 3 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Population Employment
World Cities
8-10m Pop:
• Rio De Janeiro
• Moscow
• Shanghai
• Karachi
• Paris
• Istanbul
• Nagoya
• Beijing
• Chicago
• London
Source: Greater Houston Partnership, 2014
11. 40% of population in 10 states
wants to move within 12 months
Source: Gallup, December 2013
14. Be Prepared for a More Diverse Workforce
and Customer Base
72% 65% 58%
48%
39% 36% 32% 30%
9%
14% 20%
29%
36% 39% 42% 44%
19% 18% 18% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17%
3% 3%
7% 7% 8% 9% 10%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
White Hispanic Black Other
Source: HGAC Demographic Model
Millions
17. How much higher can home prices
go?
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1975Q1
1976Q1
1977Q1
1978Q1
1979Q1
1980Q1
1981Q1
1982Q1
1983Q1
1984Q1
1985Q1
1986Q1
1987Q1
1988Q1
1989Q1
1990Q1
1991Q1
1992Q1
1993Q1
1994Q1
1995Q1
1996Q1
1997Q1
1998Q1
1999Q1
2000Q1
2001Q1
2002Q1
2003Q1
2004Q1
2005Q1
2006Q1
2007Q1
2008Q1
2009Q1
2010Q1
2011Q1
2012Q1
Nominal HPI
Real HPI
Real HPI Peak:
3Q77 – 278.7
Current HPI:
4Q13 – 206.9
Source: Quarterly House Price Index – Purchase Only, Federal Housing Finance Administration, 1Q14
Real home prices
Still 34% below 1977
peak
18. Almost 75% of suburban residents
want to stay in suburbs
51.0% 51.5%
49.2%
53.7%
61.2% 59.7%
56.7%
61.8%
50.5%
57.2%
63.1% 63.3%
71.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1999 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey, 2014
19. Over half of city residents want
to stay in city
48.6%
54.5%
54.2%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
2011 2012 2013
Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey, 2014
20. Increasing Numbers Want Small
Urban Home Options
59.1%
36.1%
57.9%
39.2%
47.4%
51.0%
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Single family home, drive Smaller urban home, walking
2005 2007 2008 2010 2012
Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey, 2014
21. Declining Support for Land Use
Regulations
72.0%
22.2%
68.8%
23.0%
64.9%
28.2%
64.0%
32.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Better land use planning Free to build wherever
2005 2007 2008 2010 2012
Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey, 2014
22. “
”
We are not a Houston whose
provincial understanding of the world
at large is manifested in
clumsy, token ways; we are a
Houston of effortless inclusiveness.
We are a city of weavers. We are a
city of builders and big ideas …
-Katherine Shilcutt
Notes de l'éditeur
And they are coming here – for the fifth year in a row Houston has ranked as the #1 destination for movers. In fact, 6 Texas cities ranked among the top 50 cities nationally in 2013. Houston #1 San Antonio #5 Austin #6 Dallas #12 Fort Worth # 25 Plano #26
Since 2007, the US has lost more than 1,045,000 “middle skill” or middle class jobs. Only 9 MSAs created net new middle class jobs over that time period, and 48% were in Houston, and 93% were in Texas.
There are 42 million freelancers in America today--a third of our workforce--and many have embraced an entirely new economic ecosystem. These workers are turning apartments into hotels, Priuses into cabs, and garages into craft manufacturing and distribution centers. Freelancers are increasingly micro-entrepreneurs, building small business and brands, seizing new opportunities to reach previously inaccessible customers and clients, and adding tremendous value to local communities and the nation’s economy along the way.Likewise, the sharing economy is no longer just a creative way for workers to supplement their sagging paychecks in a struggling labor market. TaskRabbit, Fiverr, Skillshare, and dozens of peer-to-peer platforms are now primary sources of income. A string of micro-gigs is becoming the new normal. Experts predict that the ranks of freelancers will swell to 40% of all workers in America by the end of this decadehttp://www.fastcoexist.com/3021147/its-time-for-the-sharing-economy-to-become-the-sharing-society
The region’s population is also growing more diverse. Already in 2000, whites were no longer the majority. Hispanics make up an ever greater share of the region by 2040. 2012 student demographics for HISD are even more dramatic – 92% of HISD students are either non-white or are of two or more races.
If there’s a depleted supply of homes for sale in Houston, you wouldn’t know it from the market’s new monthly home sales figures. March brought about the 34th consecutive month of positive home sales, despite the record low 2.6-month supply of inventory that has prevailed throughout 2014.According to the latest monthly report prepared by the Houston Association of Realtors (HAR), home sales rose 3.7 percent year-over-year, with March single-family home sales totaling 5,971. That is the largest one-month sales volume recorded since last September.The supply of homes first reached 2.6 months of inventory in December 2013 and has held steady ever since. However, it is down from the 3.5-month supply in March 2013 and significantly lower than the national supply of 5.2 months of inventory.The average price of a single-family home increased 11.0 percent year-over-year to $261,329. The median price—the figure at which half the homes sold for more and half for less—climbed 9.8 percent to $189,900. Both figures represent the highest prices Houston has ever seen in a March.
Region NameMar-147735877%7702647%7709441%7700438%7700938%7733637%7705734%7709234%7707731%7704330%7708030%7703629%7756826%7705424%7705524%7707324%7750624%7701123%7701823%7706723%7749323%7766523%7738022%7747822%7700321%7703421%7732820%7737820%
According to the house price index prepared by the FHFA, Houston home prices have increased consistently since the mid-1970s, falling only during the downturn during the mid-1980s. But when adjusted for inflation, real home prices have failed to reach the 1977 peak – and remain 34% below that level. And that’s with interest rates on a 30-year fixed note were 8.9%, compared with about 4.34% for a comparable note today.