As a journalist covering the fleet industry, I spend a lot of time talking with experts and moderating roundtable discussions on the intersection of technology and transportation -- specifically, the rise of vehicle automation and how that might impact fleet. In this presentation, I share with you what I’ve learned in my conversations and research. ~ Sean M. Lyden (Presented 10/13/2015 at Isuzu Commercial Truck of America's Customer Appreciation Event.)

1. Autonomous Vehicles and the Future of Fleet
Sean M. Lyden ~ Journalist & Editor

2. Background
● CEO, Lyden Communications LLC
● Founder, Strategy + Storytelling
● Editor, Utility Fleet Professional
● Producer/ Moderator, Utility Fleet Conference 2015 @ ICUEE

3. Agenda
1. Why Care? 3 Reasons
2. Key Terms to Know
3. Top 8 Trends Driving Autonomous Vehicle Development
4. What’s the Impact on Fleet?
5. Discussion: Q & A

4. Why Care?

5. Reason #1: Safety
32,719 killed in motor vehicle crashes
in the U.S. in 2013 (NHTSA)
“That’s one Boeing 737 falling out of
the sky each day, 5 days per week.” ~
Jennifer Haroon, Head of Business
Operations, Google Self-Driving Car
Project

6. Reason #1: Safety
Human vs. Machine -- Which is Safer?
90 Percent of all vehicular accidents in the U.S, caused by
human error -- Network Employers for Traffic Safety
(NETS)

7. Reason #2: Productivity
The average commute time is 25 minutes each way, just under an
hour per day total ~ U.S. Department of Commerce

8. Reason #3: It’s not a matter of if, but when …
● 85 million autonomous-capable vehicles are expected to be sold annually around
the world by 2035 (Navigant Research, September 2015)
● Semi-autonomous vehicles expected by 2020
● Fully autonomous vehicles to begin entering the market 2025 (Dave Alexander,
Senior Analyst, Navigant)

9. Key Terms to Know
● ADAS
● 5 Sensor (Vision) Technologies
● “Autonomous”

10. ADAS
Examples:
● Backup Cameras
● Adaptive cruise control
● Lane departure warning
● Forward collision warning & avoidance
● Blind spot detection
● Park assist
Advanced Driver Assistance Systems

11. Sensor (Vision) Technologies

12. Sensor Technology #1: Lidar
Light Detection And Ranging
Image: Popular Science

13. Sensor Technology #2: Cameras
“Eyes” to Read Signs, Spot Obstacles
Image: Mobileye

14. Sensor Technology #3: Sonar
Ultrasonic Range Finding
Image: Tesla

15. Sensor Technology #4: Radar
Radio Waves to Measure Speed and Distance
Image: Autobytel

16. Sensor Technology #5: V2X
Vehicle-to-(Vehicle/ Pedestrian/ Infrastructure/ Everything)
Image: Denso Global

17. What Exactly Does “Autonomous” Mean?

18. Levels of Autonomy
Level 1: Function-Specific Automation: Involves one or more specific control functions.
(Electronic stability control, adaptive cruise control, etc.)
Level 2: Combined Function Automation: Involves at least two primary control functions
designed to work in unison to relieve the driver of control of those functions. (Highway Autopilot
-- Tesla)
Level 3: Limited Self-Driving Automation (Semi-Autonomous): Driver cedes full control
of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic or environmental conditions, while requiring
transition back to driver control under certain conditions. (1st Generation Google Car)
Level 4: Full Self-Driving Automation: Human provides destination or navigation input, but
is not expected to be available for control at any time during the trip. (Google “Pod”)
Source: NHTSA

19. The Top 8 Trends

20. Trend #1: Regulatory Push for ADAS
● Backup Cameras
○ Mandated for all new vehicles under 10,000 lbs. GVWR in the U.S., including
buses and trucks, by May 1, 2018
● Electronic Stability Control (ESC)
○ Mandated for all heavy trucks (exceeding 26,000 lbs. GVWR) beginning in
2017.
● Collision Avoidance Systems (CAS)
○ NTSB report released June 2015 on The Use of Forward Collision Avoidance
Systems to Prevent and Mitigate Rear-End Crashes, stating that CAS are
ready for widespread adoption and should become standard on all new
passenger and commercial vehicles.

21. Trend #2: The Connected Vehicle
WiFi standard or optional
feature in 90 models for 2015
Connectivity enables …
● V2X (Denso)
● “Over-the-air” software
updates (Tesla)

22. Trend #3: Real - Time, Crowd-Sourced Mapping
Image: Wired/ Nokia HERE

23. Trend #4: Advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI)
Teaching Vehicles to “Think,” Learn and Adapt
● Joint research center: MIT, Stanford, Toyota ($50 million total
investment) -- September 2015
● “The new center will focus on developing advanced decision-making
algorithms and systems that allow vehicles to perceive and navigate their
surroundings safely, without human input.”

24. Trend #5: States Enacting AV Legislation
Source: National Conference of State Legislatures

25. Trend #6: Uber-ization of Transportation
Vehicles On-Demand
22% of Uber users age 18 to 64, who have
used the service in the past 6 months, said
they were delaying or holding off buying a
new car because of the car-sharing service
(Magid Advisors survey released on CNBC
10/3/15)
“Inefficiency” of Vehicle Ownership
Car driven 2 hrs per day, sits for 22 hrs =
9% utilization
Image: NewsBtc.com

26. Trend #7: Tech Companies as Automakers

27. Trend #8: Hurdles to Widespread User Acceptance
Will we trust a computer to drive us?
● Most U.S. adult drivers (72 percent) would not trust self-parking vehicle
technology to parallel park their vehicle ~ AAA: Park Assist Fact Sheet 2015
● Frequency of computer “crashes” with existing technology
● Concerns about cybersecurity

28. What’s the Impact on Fleet?
● Driver training transitioning b/w levels of automation
● Risk management policies
● Vehicle ownership vs. leasing vs. on-demand
● Fleet supply chain
● Vehicle lifecycles
● Fleet analytics / KPIs
● Maintenance operations
● Fueling/ charging logistics

29. Discussion: Q&A
Sean M. Lyden
CEO, Lyden Communications LLC
sean@lydencommunications.com
www.strategyandstorytelling.com