Low Emission Development Strategy 2030 Scenarios with ICLEI in KwaDukuza, Zululand South Africa

1. THE KWADUKUZA LOW
EMISSION DEVELOPMENT
SCENARIOS
SECOND IMBIZO:
CATCHING UP FROM THE FIRST IMBIZO

2. SCENARIOS PROCESS PLAN
PHASES
Phase 1: Setting up the Conversation
Phase 2: Coming to terms with the challenges
Phase 3: Talking through the 2030 End State
Vision
Phase 4: Working the conversation back to
today
Phase 5: Closure

3. It is not yet here ?
It is has gone past ?
It is moving now ?

4. TRANSITION
Past Present Future

5. TRANSITION IMPLIES
• Systems that change in interconnected ways

6. TRANSITION IMPLIES
• An inevitable destination
• An unpredictable Journey

7. Transition is slow + simple
• Past is clear
• Present is obvious
• Future can be predicted
Transition is fast + complex
•Past needs thought
•Present is not so obvious
•Future is uncertain: SCENARIOS

10. GLOBAL TRANSITION

11. DRIVERS
• reaching peak population
• facing the challenge of a transition to sustainability
• on the planet boundary
• life has been getting better for more people faster than ever
before and will probably continue to do so
• technology and innovation: a matter of time & market
• one world one social network
• the off grid village
• multi polar global order

12. 1771 Industrial Revolution
1829 Start of Age of Steam and Railways
1875 Start of Age of Steel, Electricity & Heavy Engineering
1908 Start of Age of Oil, Automobiles & Mass Production
1971 Age of Information & Telecommunications
2013 Midpoint of Age of Information & Telecommunications
2020 Era of Turbulence
2030 Start of Age of Biotechnology and Renewable Energy?
MID
CENTU
RY
Midpoint of Age of Biotechnology and Renewable Energy?

13. AFRICA IN TRANSITION

14. 1,2 Billion Africans today
2,1 Billion Africans by 2050
1,23 Billion African City Dwellers
by 2050

15. SOUTH AFRICA IN TRANSITION

16. Cheap Coal
Electricity
Cheap
Labour
Minerals
Export
Resource
curse
Huge
Carbon
Footprint
MINERALS ENERGY COMPLEX

17. A SMALL AFRICAN COUNTRY
• Population Stable & Ageing
• Gets dwarfed in the African context to MID CENTURY
Country Population (millions)*
2012 2030 MID
CENTURY
GAIN
2012 -MID
CENTURY
SOUTH
AFRICA
50 54 56
+6
TANZANI
A
47 81 138
+91
NIGERIA 166 257 389
+223
* UN Projections 2012

18. YEAR GLOBAL TRANSITION YEAR SOUTH AFRICA TRANSITION
1771 Industrial Revolution
1829 Start of Age of Steam & Rail
1875 Start of Age of Steel,
Electricity & Heavy
Engineering
1908 Start of Age of Oil,
Automobiles & Mass
Production
1905 Mining Economy + Union of
South Africa
1930 Resource Based Manuf.
1960 Republic of South Africa
1971 Age of Information &
Telecommunications
1971 Resource Based Services
Economy
2013 Midpoint of Age of
Information & Telecp
1994 Democratic Elections
2020 Era of Turbulence 2020 A Perfect Storm ?
2030 Start of Age of Biotechnology
and Renewable Energy?
2030 An African Knowledge & Finance
Capital ?
MID
CENTURY
Midpoint of Age of Biotech
and Renewable Energy?
2050 A Wealthy African Region ?

19. THE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
PLAN FOR 2030

20. • Additional 40 000 MW electricity required by
2030, at least 50% ( 20 000 MW) to come
from Renewable Energy (RE)
• PGDS indicates 5,000 of that in KZN:
sugar industry and timber industry has
put 2000MW on the table

21. • Accelerate IPP (Independent Power
Producer) procurement
• Durban Port Capacity from 3 to 20 million
containers per annum by 2040 &
expanded Richards Bay coal export
• Peak Greenhouse Gas emissions by 2025
• Carbon Pricing Mechanisms to drive energy
efficiency , economy-wide carbon price by
2030
• Zero Emission Building Standards by 2030

22. • Southern Africa Intra Regional trade to
increase from 7 % to 25% by 2030
• SA Trade with regional neighbours to
increase from 15% to 30%

23. If the SADC were to follow the Brazilian model over the next 20
years, with 60 percent of petrol being derived from
ethanol and all growth in demand captured by ethanol….
• it would require the construction of about 120 mills that have the
capacity to produce 320 000 tons sugar per annum, create 1,8
million new direct jobs, and at least as many indirect jobs.
• The associated power generation would be equal to Medupi and Kusile
combined, which equates to approximately 9 500 MW.
• For South Africa, it would provide between 13 and 25 percent of the
required carbon footprint reduction needed to meet the target
which the country committed to during COP 15 (Copenhagen, 2009).
• Large scale ethanol production requires a regional ethanol regime. Some 70
percent of the market for ethanol lies in South Africa, with the bulk of the
production potential lying within other SADC countries such as Mozambique,
Zimbabwe, Zambia and Angola

24. KWADUKUZA IN
TRANSITION

26. Corridor
Transition
Period World Transition Transport Driver Urban Response
1.
Birth
1680
–
1840
Ox Wagon & Horse Kraal, Farm,
Garrison Town
2.
Urbanisation
1860 -
1940
Age of Steel, Electricity
& Heavy Engineering
Hard Road & Railway
Line
Factory &
Traditional
Villages & High
Streets
3. City
Integration
1940
–
1980
Age of Oil,
Automobiles & Mass
Production
Commuter Rail / Bus
Corridor
Industrialisation
Satellite Towns &
North Coast
Corridor
Emergence
4. Metro
Sprawl
1980
–
2020
Age of Information &
Telecommunications
Motor Corridor, Mini
Bus Taxi, Airport &
Tradeport
North Coast
Corridor
Fragmentation
5. Metro
Compaction
2020
–
2030
Era of Turbulence Bus Rapid Transit, New
Trains, Smart Transport
Systems
Corridor
Regeneration
6.
Africanisation
2030 -
2040
Start of Age of
Biotechnology and
Renewable Energy?
Fast Rail, Smart
Vehicles
Off Grid Satellite
Towns
7.
Regionalism
2040
+
Midpoint of Age of
Biotech and
Walking & Cycling Urban Villages

27. DRIVERS
1. Cross border inter-governmental collaboration
2. Compact settlement, growth management and public
transport
3. Capacity building and awareness raising
4. Climate change adaptation
5. Green building, green development and energy efficiency
6. Inclusive Growth and Green Job Creation
7. Monitoring, Evaluation and Enforcement
8. Municipal capacity for effective planning
9. Quality of life, resource security and access to services
10. Renewable Energy, Biofuel, Energy Cogeneration and
Green Industry
11. Rural Development and Sustainable Agriculture

29. SARVA Map indicating minimum likely Climatic
Changes for the period 2070-2100

30. • The mean annual temperature for KwaDukuza
is projected to increase between 1.7 and
2.7°C by 2060‟s and 3.0 to 4.5°C
by the 2090‟s.
• This warming is expected to be similar
throughout the year, although it will be more
pronounced inland compared to the coastal
regions.
• The number of “hot” days and nights will also
continue to increase

31. • Dryer soils
• Water availability
• Flooding
• Reduced
• Heat stress
• Pest and disease
• Extreme events
• Water quality - Changes in the frequency of intense
rainfall events, particularly following periods of dry
weather, could contribute to increased nutrient runoff
from agricultural land, which may affect local water
quality. As well as harming biodiversity and
ecosystems, this may affect the quality of water
abstracted downstream.

32. KZN GREEN ECONOMY STRATEGY
• by 2025, KwaZulu- Natal will be a province where the economy
provides „green‟ economic growth.
• there is only one economy – the green economy,
which means that the current economy must be
re-orientated to become the green economy.
• become increasingly competitive and resilient, by:
• Increasing resource use efficiency
• Increasing the supply of renewable energy;
• Securing the supply of ecosystem services from the province‟s natural
assets; and
• Reducing environmental and climate related risks; and in so doing
• Create sustainable jobs for local people;
• Reduce poverty; and
• Address social equity throughout all regions of the province.

40. Participlan Exercise: what are the key low emission
and development outcome possibilities and
uncertainties for KwaDukuza 2030?

41. Driver Impact Uncertainty Impact x
Uncertainty
Ranking
Monitoring, regulation &
evaluation (later added:
incentives)
12 8 76 2
Educations 11 1 11 9
Planning 4 4 16 8
Quality of life 4 1 4 14
Reduced use of fossil fuels 6 3 18 6
Inter-departmental collaboration 1 1 1 15
Public transport 6 3 18 6
Sustainable development 6 5 30 4
Tourism 5 1 5 13
Population growth 1 0 1 15
Compact, dense city 9 1 9 10
Green economy 11 2 22 5
Mindset change 16 13 208 1
Health 7 0 7 11
Natural resource scarcity 9 6 54 3
Green buildings and
development
6 0 6 12

42. 42
Umuzi
Wezinkinga
(House of
Frustration)
Umuzi
wengcebo
(House of
Wealth)
Umuzi
Wobubha
(House of
Poverty)
Umuzi
Wenxush
unxushu
(House of
conflict)
Positive Shared
Mindset towards Low
Carbon Actions
Great monitoring,
regulation &
incentives
Bad monitoring,
regulation &
incentives
Negative Fragmented
Mindset towards Low
Carbon Actions
KWADUKUZA 2030 LEDS
SCENARIOS

43. 43
Umuzi
Wezinkinga
(House of
Frustration)
Umuzi
wengcebo
(House of
Wealth)
Umuzi
Wobubha
(House of
Poverty)
Umuzi
Wenxush
unxushu
(House of
conflict)
Positive Shared
Mindset towards Low
Carbon Actions
Great monitoring,
regulation &
incentives
Bad monitoring,
regulation &
incentives
Negative Fragmented
Mindset towards Low
Carbon Actions
• Collective Thinking &
Partnership : Ubuntu
• indigenous knowledge
systems whilst
Embracing green
technology
• Effective Growth
Management
• Green Economy
• Public Transport
• Innovation
• Biodiversity
• “Don‟t give a damn”
attitude
• arrogance
• Weak leadership
• Corruption
• Mired in legal disputes
• No concern for future
generations
• Rigid in beliefs
• illegal activities
• Government / Business
/ Community tensions
• Selfish, self-centered,
pessimistic, careless,
greedy values
• lack of accountability &
responsibility,
• destructive non-
compliant, reckless
behaviour
• Chaotic Unplanned
Development
• Old Economy
• Motor Car is King
• Parallel world- good
institutional set-up but lack
of action
• Talk Shop
• Inequality Remains
• Non Compliant 20 % cause
80% of the Problem
• Technically
resourceful/efficient
KWADUKUZA 2030
SCENARIOS

44. 15:15 – 15:45
Revisiting the Four 2030
Scenarios: An Integrated
Perspective
Shahid
Solomon,
Novation 2050
15:45 – 16:30
Articulating the 2030
LEDS Vision and Agreeing
Indicators of Success
Group Work
16:30 – 17:00
Closing remarks and
summary
Shahid
Solomon,
Novation 2050

45. UMUZI WENGCEBO
VISION GROUPS
1. How will we be working together?
• Local Partnerships
• Regional Partnerships
• Capacity building and awareness
• Monitoring, Evaluation and Enforcement
• Municipal capacity for effective planning
2. How will Kwadukuza look, feel and function?
• Compact settlement, growth management and public transport
• Green building, green development and energy efficiency
• Quality of life, resource security and access to services
3. How will the economy be generating growth and jobs?
• Inclusive Growth and Green Job Creation
• Renewable Energy, Biofuel, Energy Cogeneration and Green Industry
4. What will have happened to our natural resources?
• Climate change adaptation
• Rural Development and Sustainable Agriculture

46. Day Two
Back-casting: what milestones need to be achieved by 2020
in order to be on track to the 2030 Vision?
Tea
Participlan: what are the tough choices that need to be
made in the next 6 months – two years in order to achieve
the 2020 milestones?
Proposal : Four 2020 Tough Choice Scenarios
Lunch
Plotting a Trajectory from 2013 to 2020 and 2030 to
Achieve the Vision Scenario: The KwaDukuza Success
Story as we want it to be written
Tea
What levers (policy, regulations, partnerships, IGR
mechanisms, funding sources) are available / can be put in
place to deliver on the best 2020 choice scenario? What are
reasonable time frames to get these levers in place?
Key Next Steps and Responsibilities

47. THANK YOU