Transportation to Make Stewart a Viable New York Airport

2. Amar Zabarah
Breaking Through the Bottleneck Brittany Callahan
Transportation to Make Stewart a Viable New York Airport Claudia Antezano
David Lamartin
GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY
DR. LANCE SHERRY, FACULTY SPONSOR Renato Henriques
Shakeeb Rahman
2

3. Outline
• Background Information
• Problem Statement
• Capacity, Delays & Demands
• Design Alternatives
• Methodology
• Results
• Sensitivity Analysis
• Future Work
3

4. Background Information
The New York Metroplex
& Stewart International Airport
4

5. BACKGROUND INFORMATION
NYC Population Growing; Airport Capacity is Not
• Made up of three airports: NYC Population Growth
25M
• John F. Kennedy
International
20M
• LaGuardia International
Population in Millions
• Newark Liberty International 15M
• Forms the busiest, most
crowded airport hub in the 10M
world.
• Population expected to grow 5M
by 2-3 M in the next 20 years.
• Increasing airport capacity is a
0M
significant challenge. 1990 2000 2008 - 2030
Year
5 Data from US Census Data

6. BACKGROUND INFORMATION
Stewart International Airport
THE UNUSED RESOURCE
• Port Authority of NY/NJ acquired 90
year lease in 2007.
Distance ~96km
• SWF is located 60 miles (~96km)
north of Manhattan.
Runways 2
Current Operations 2k
(passengers/day)
Max Capacity 54 - 137k
(passengers/day)
• Getting airlines to operate out of
SWF has proved to be difficult.
• Thus, Stewart lies under utilized,
always operating well below its
capacity.
6

7. Problem Statement
There is a need for a transportation system that is
capable of linking Stewart International Airport to
Manhattan within 1 to 3 years to make Stewart more
attractive to the Manhattan traveling populace.
7

8. BACKGROUND INFORMATION
Scope of Study
In Out
• Alternate modes of • NYC airport delays
transportation
• Hybrid system
• Ideal vessel characteristics
• Security, commute to boarding
• Only transit from gate to gate terminals, luggage
handling, and parking
• Implementation time of 1-3 years
• Boarding terminals
8

9. Pick up Point
9

10. 10

11. Capacities, Delays,
& Demands
Understanding Capacity, Delays, and
Demands.
11

12. CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS
SWF Daily Movements, 2007!
Airport Capacity 14!
12!
• Airport capacity is defined as
the number of movements an
10!
airport can handle.
Average Movements!
• 1 movement = 1 arrival 8!
or departure
6!
• Capacity is dynamic; it is
difficult to declare an airport’s
4!
capacity.
• However, we can show the 2!
probability that an airport will
be able to handle a certain 0!
capacity given its history. 0! 2! 4! 6! 8! 10! 12! 14! 16! 18! 20! 22!
Hour of Day!
Declared Capacity! Actual Operations!
12 SWF Daily Movement Data from Project HummingBird Research

13. CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS
Delays
• ρ is the ratio of demand to
capacity.
• A system will commonly begin
to experience stochastic delays
as ρ approaches 1.
• Stochastic delays can become
excessive when ρ ≥ 0.8.
• We assume that when ρ ≥ 0.8,
it is likely to contribute to
stochastic delays.
13

14. CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS
Passenger Demand Excess Flights for NYC Airports!
14!
Average Movements over 0.8 Threshold!
12!
• Consumer base is calculated 10!
by applying this ρ value to 2007 8!
6!
NYC airport traffic. 4!
2!
• Take the product of the average 0!
movements that exceed that 0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 5! 6! 7! 8! 9! 10! 11! 12! 13! 14! 15! 16! 17! 18! 19! 20! 21! 22! 23!
Hour of Day!
0.8 threshold with the average EWR! JFK! LGA!
number of passengers per
flight. Data from Project HummingBird Research
• Sum for all airports. Airport
Movements Average PAX Total PAX
ρ > 0.8 per day per flight per flight
• There are a total of 22,500
EWR 81 71 5,751
passengers each day that
exceed the 0.8 capacity in the JFK 109 79 8,611
NYC airports. LGA 138 59 8,142
Total ~22,500
14 Data from Project HummingBird Research

15. CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS
NYC Airport Movement Overflow (when ρ ≥ 0.8)
Excess Flights for NYC Airports!
14!
Average Movements over 0.8 Threshold!
12!
10!
8!
6!
4!
2!
0!
0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 5! 6! 7! 8! 9! 10! 11! 12! 13! 14! 15! 16! 17! 18! 19! 20! 21! 22! 23!
Hour of Day!
EWR! JFK! LGA!
15 Data from Project HummingBird Research

16. CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS
NYC Airport Passenger Overflow
Average Total
Airport Movements
ρ > 0.8 per day Passengers Passengers
per flight per day
EWR 81 71 5,751
JFK 109 79 8,611
LGA 138 59 8,142
Total ~22,500
16 Data from Project HummingBird Research

17. CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS
Passenger Demand per Minute of Day!
18!
16!
Passengers (per minute)!
14!
12!
10!
8!
6!
4!
2!
0!
360! 420! 480! 540! 600! 660! 720! 780! 840! 900! 960! 1020! 1080! 1140! 1200! 1260! 1320! 1380!
Minute of Day!
17

18. Design Alternatives
The Sikorsky S-92,
Eurocopter Super Puma,
Austal Ferry, and the SkyCat-50
18

19. DESIGN ALTERNATIVES
Vessels
Helicopter Helicopter High-Speed Ferry Air Vehicle
Super Puma Sikorsky S-92 Austal Ferry SkyCat-50
Purchase Cost
$13.7 $18.9 $14 $50
(millions)
Seating Capacity 20 21 450 200
Transit Time
22 20 90 45
(minutes)
19

20. Value Hierarchy
Methodology
Value Hierarchy,
Simulation,
& Financial Analysis Financial Analysis Simulation
20

21. METHODOLOGY
Value Hierarchy
21 Representative Stakeholders

22. METHODOLOGY
Utility Functions
• Derived utility functions from our value hierarchy:
22

23. METHODOLOGY
Simulation
Continuous Simulation
23

24. 24

25. 25

26. 26

27. Results
Vessel Performance,
Costs Analysis,
& Final Utility Rating
27

28. RESULTS
Ferry Queueing Time per Vessel Added
28

29. Service Times for Transportation Alternatives!
540!
Average Passenger Service Time (minutes)!
480!
420!
360!
300!
240!
180!
120!
60!
0!
1! 3! 5! 7! 9! 11! 13! 15! 17! 19! 21! 23! 25!
Number of Vessels!
Ferry! Sikorsky S-92! SkyCat-50! Super Puma!
29

30. Passenger Throughput "
for Transportation Alternatives!
22500!
20000!
17500!
Passengers Serviced!
15000!
12500!
10000!
7500!
5000!
2500!
0!
1! 3! 5! 7! 9! 11! 13! 15! 17! 19! 21! 23! 25!
Number of Vessels!
Ferry! Sikorsky S-92! SkyCat-50! Super Puma!
30

31. Passenger Throughput vs. Trip Count!
22500!
20000!
17500!
Passengers Serviced!
15000!
12500!
10000!
7500!
5000!
2500!
0!
0! 100! 200! 300! 400! 500! 600!
Trip Count!
Ferry! Sikorsky S-92! SkyCat-50! Super Puma!
31

32. Emissions and Noise
Super Puma Sikorsky S-92 Austal Ferry SkyCat-50
Vessels 16 14 11 15
Frequency
518 520 49 111
(trips / day)
Emissions
885 1,046 476 159
(kilograms / day)
Noise
94 90 89 70
(SEL dB 200ft)
32

33. RESULTS
System Costs per Year
Super Puma Sikorsky S-92 Austal Ferry SkyCat-50
Vessels 16 14 11 15
Fuel $79.2M $77.2M $31.0M $16.4M
Training $0.5M $0.5M $0.6M $0.3M
Crew $2.6M $2.3M $8.5M $6.6M
Maintenance $116.8M $85.7M $6.2M $6.8M
Insurance $7.5M $7.9M $2.7M $22.5M
Yearly Payment $15.2M $18.4M $10.7M $83.4M
Cost / Year $221.8M $192.0M $59.7M $136.0M
Cost / Passenger $53.2 $47.9 $7.8 $17.6
33

34. RESULTS
Utility Scores
Utility for Transportation Alternatives
SkyCat-50 0.80
Austal Ferry 0.73
AS332 Super Puma 0.39
Sikorsky S-92 0.37
34

35. System Utility!
0.8!
0.7!
0.6!
0.5!
Utility!
0.4!
0.3!
0.2!
0.1!
0!
0! 50! 100! 150! 200! 250!
Cost/year (millions USD)!
Ferry! Sikorsky S-92! SkyCat-50! Super Puma!
35

36. Sensitivity Analysis
Effects on Performance & Suitability
36

37. Sensitivity Analysis on Performance
37

38. Sensitivity Analysis on Flexibility
38

39. Sensitivity Analysis on Suitability
39

40. Sensitivity Analysis on Noise
40

41. Further Analysis
Parametric Analysis on the effects of
Cruising Speed and Capacity on
Service Time.
41

42. Sikorsky S-92
Super Puma
Ferry
SkyCat-50
42

43. Ideal Vessel
• To keep service time below 60
minutes, an ideal vessel will
have:
• Seating range of 50-200
people
• Cruising speed above 105
km/h
43

44. Future Work
Future Work
44

45. Future Work
• Hybrid System that uses two or more vessel types
• Further research on vessels (Safety, MTTR and MTBF)
• Terminal Locations
• Secondary transportation systems (shuttle service)
• Weather tolerance
45

46. Thank you for listening
46

47. Backup Slides
47

48. CONCLUSIONS
Vessel Performance
Super Puma Sikorsky S-92 Austal Ferry SkyCat-50
Vessels 16 14 11 15
Pax Throughput 11k 11k 22k 22k
(per day)
Service + Queue 189 197 100 49
(minutes/passenger)
Frequency
181k 182k 17k 39k
(trips / year)
Noise
94 90 89 70
(SEL dB 200ft)
Emissions 310 366 167 56
(tonnes / year)
Cost / Year $221.8 $192.0 $59.7 $136.0
Cost / Passenger $53.2 $47.9 $7.8 $17.6
48

49. Cost Estimating Relationships
Helicopter Helicopter High-Speed Ferry Air Vehicle
Super Puma Sikorsky S-92 Austal Ferry SkyCat-50
Fuel
$1,008 $1,157 $1,203 $562
($/Hour)
Crew
$161,138 $161,138 $777,000 $437,000
($/Vessel)
Maintenance
$1,486 $1,285 $240 $234
($/Hour)
49

50. DESIGN ALTERNATIVES
Vessels
Helicopter Helicopter High-Speed Ferry Air Vehicle
Super Puma Sikorsky S-92 Austal Ferry SkyCat-50
Fuel
$1,008 $1,157 $1,203 $562
($/Hour)
Crew
$161,138 $161,138 $777,000 $437,000
($/Vessel)
Maintenance
$1,486 $1,285 $240 $234
($/Hour)
50

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