Forecasts of 2012-13 for India's LNG import stats stand corrected today. This presentation shows what the LNG shipowners may expect by 2020 from Indian natural gas Market and the charterers
4. Natural Gas production vs imports…
23.8 23.4 24.0 24.2
35.4 39.0 35.3
30.3
26.3 24.9 24.0 22.0
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
7.5
7.5
7.7
7.7
7.7 7.7
11.3
11.3
0.1 1.8 3.2 3.0
1.4
2.2
3.9
3.2
3.1 3.9
4.4 6.7
2005‐06
2006‐07
2007‐08
2008‐09
2009‐10
2010‐11
2011‐12
2012‐13
2013‐14
2014‐15
2015‐16 (P)
2016‐17 (P)
Domestic Production Import ‐ Long term Import ‐ Spot/Short Term
We are here
5. Past Supply Forecast vs Actual …
30.3 26.3 24.9 24.0 22.0
10.9 10.8 11.6 15.7 18.0
30.3 26.1 24.8
38.6 48.6
13.2 13.2 14.9
35.8
41.7
2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16 2016‐17 (P)
As per 12th Five Year Plan
Actual Domestic Production Actual Import Domestic Gas Imports total actual supply
All figures in MMTPA
• Gas wells discovered 2‐3 years ago are yet to start production
• Domestic Gas price @ $4.6
• HIGH Imported Gas Spot price @ $15‐18 / mmbtu
6. Past Demand Forecast vs Actual …
79.4
89.4
110.6
121.9
129.4
43.4 42.8 43.8 44.2 45.9
2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16 2016‐17(P)
As per 12th Five Year Plan
Power Fertilizer
City Gas Petchem/ Refineries/ others
All figures in MMTPA
• Subsidies restricted aggressive investments by the government
• Low to negative returns due to Regulated/ domestic gas pegged price of
end product