1. Should
I
Pick
Door
Number
Three
Or
Keep
The
Money?
By
Shaun
Smith
You
can
keep
the
five
hundred
dollars,
or
you
can
see
what’s
behind
door
number
three?
No
matter
what
you
do,
we
all
feel
like
we
are
on
the
game
show
Let’s
Make
A
Deal,
at
least
once
or
twice
a
day.
I
think
Wayne
Brady
does
a
great
job
by
the
way.
When
a
middle
aged
guy,
like
myself,
sits
out
side
in
the
back
yard,
nursing
his
well
deserved
beverage
of
choice,
he
should
be
listening
to
the
birds
and
taking
in
the
wonderment
that
is
spring.
Instead,
I
sit
thinking
about
the
bad
decision
I
just
made.
I
asks
himself,
“Why
did
I
make
that
decision!”
Like
Walter
Donovan,
in
the
movie
Indiana
Jones
and
the
Last
Crusade,
I
hear
the
Grail
Knight
say,
“He
chose
poorly.”
Haven’t
we
all,
at
one
time
or
another,
chosen
the
wrong
cup?
You
know,
the
cup
with
jewels
on
it.
The
one
that
shines
in
the
light,
only
to
find
out
it’s
filled
with
despair.
Oh
yes
we
have,
but
you
and
I
have
not
turned
to
dust.
We
are
still
live,
and
yes
you
and
I
have
made
bad
decisions
in
the
past,
but
we
can
make
better
decisions
in
the
future.
Ok,
until
we
check
into
the
rocker
at
the
Shady
Oaks
Rest
Home,
we
will
be
making
major
decisions,
which
will
have
a
lasting
impact
on
our
lives
and
careers.
Even
at
the
Shady
Oaks
Rest
Home
we
will
be
making
decisions,
like
lemon
meringue
pie
or
chocolate
pudding?
Always
go
with
chocolate
pudding.
All
kidding
aside,
many
times
we
do
not
have
the
confidence,
we
should
have,
in
the
decisions
we
make.
But
“How
do
we
gain
confidence
in
our
decisions?”
The
confidence
comes
from
the
process
we
use
to
make
our
decisions.
The
decision
making
process
is
what
I
am
going
to
talk
about
today.
There
are
many
processes
when
making
a
decision.
There
are
of
course
the
Project
Management
Body
Of
Knowledge
(PMBOK)
group
techniques.
They
are
as
follows:
• Brainstorming:
Used
to
generate
and
collect
multiple
ideas
related
to
project
and
• product
requirement.
• Nominal
group
technique:
Enhances
brainstorming
with
a
voting
process
used
to
• rank
the
most
useful
ideas
for
further
brainstorming
or
for
prioritization.
• Delphi:
A
group
of
experts
answer
questions
and
provide
feedback
regarding
the
• responses
from
each
round
of
requirements
gathering.
Responses
are
only
available
to
the
facilitator
to
maintain
anonymity.
• Idea/Mind
Mapping:
Ideas
created
through
individual
brainstorming
are
consolidated
into
a
single
map
to
reflect
commonality
and
differences
in
understanding,
and
generate
new
ideas.

2. • Affinity
diagram:
A
technique,
which
allows
a
large
number
of
ideas
to
be
sorted
into
groups
for
review
and
analysis.
No
matter
what
type
of
decision-­‐making
technique
you
use,
you
must
create
a
parallel
process
that
helps
to
identify
the
decisions
that
need
to
be
made.
This
process
needs
to
be
followed
by
a
planning
process,
including
risk
management.
We
need
to
review
our
decisions
often,
and
when
our
environment
changes,
we
need
to
use
change
control
techniques
to
manage
them.
But
that’s
a
different
article.
In
order
to
make
a
good
decision
you
have
to
be
creative.
Here
are
two
good
quotes
from
Steve
Jobs
on
creativity.
He
says
in
the
first
quote:
Creativity
is
just
connecting
things.
When
you
ask
creative
people
how
they
did
something,
they
feel
a
little
guilty
because
they
didn't
really
do
it,
they
just
saw
something.
It
seemed
obvious
to
them
after
a
while.
That's
because
they
were
able
to
connect
experiences
they've
had
and
synthesize
new
things.
In
the
next
quote
Mr.
Jobs
says:
A
lot
of
people
in
our
industry
haven't
had
very
diverse
experiences.
So
they
don't
have
enough
dots
to
connect,
and
they
end
up
with
very
linear
solutions
without
a
broad
perspective
on
the
problem.
The
broader
one's
understanding
of
the
human
experience,
the
better
design
we
will
have.
I
think
these
quotes
answer
the
too
often
heard
question,
“Now
why
didn’t
I
think
of
that.”
Once
you
have
a
few
solutions
to
base
your
decision
on,
you
have
to
commit
to
implementing
one
of
these
solutions.
Make
sure
to
have
another
solution
as
a
backup,
if
the
first
solution
fails,
a
plan
B,
if
you
will.
In
my
experience,
this
is
the
biggest
hurtle
for
a
manager
to
jump
through,
when
making
a
decision.
Some
managers
cannot
make
a
decision
to
save
their
lives.
They
either
procrastinate
until
someone
else
has
to
make
the
decision,
or
they
push
the
decision
off
on
the
employees,
who
shouldn’t
real
be
making
the
decision
in
the
first
place,
because
they
do
not
have
the
authority
and
inside
knowledge
to
make
sure
the
decision
is
followed
through
to
a
successful
conclusion.
This
is
different
then
asking
for
your
team’s
opinion,
because
in
this
situation,
the
manager
removes
himself
completely
from
the
decision
making
process.
Napoleon
Bonaparte
showed
that
he
understood
how
hard
it
is
to
make
a
decision
when
he
said,
“Nothing
is
more
difficult,
and
therefore
more
precious,
than
to
be
able
to
decide.”
As
Brace
E.
Barber
says,
in
his
book
No
Excuse
Leadership:
lessons
from
the
U.S.
Army’s
elite
Rangers,
“The
importance
comes
not
necessarily
from
making
the
right
decision
every
time,
but
at
least
not
failing
because
[you’re]
incapable
of
making
a
decision.”
Another
good
quote
from
Brace
E.
Barber
is
“It
is
easy
to
keep
going
when
you
win
every
time;
there
is
more
opportunity
for
personal
development
when
you
have
a
setback
and
have
to
adjust
to
a
new,
less
sterling
reality,
and
then
keep
going.”

3.
Yes,
you
can
get
by
as
a
manager
by
just
nodding
yes
or
no,
shooting
from
the
hip
on
every
decision
that
comes
up.
Maybe
because
you
are
afraid
to
admit
you
do
not
know,
or
you’re
afraid
to
give
up
any
control.
There
is
a
lot
of
this
in
today’s
economy,
or
you
can
take
the
advice
of
Peter
Drucker
when
he
says
”Whenever
you
see
a
successful
business,
someone
once
made
a
courageous
[informed]
decision.”
I
know
the
feeling
of
having
your
throat
tighten
and
your
mouth
drying
up
when
you
are
called
on
to
make
a
decision,
but
as
Robyn
Davidson
says
“The
two
important
things
I
did
learn
were
that
you
are
as
powerful
and
strong
as
you
allow
yourself
to
be,
and
that
the
most
difficult
part
of
any
endeavor
is
taking
the
first
step,
making
the
first
decision.”
I
know
by
now
you
are
probably
feeling
like
you’re
suffering
a
death
by
a
thousand
quotes,
but
I
would
like
to
add
another
quote
that
I
think
is
important
to
hear.
It’s
one
from
one
of
my
favorite
people
in
history.
This
person
was
one
of
the
most
courageous
people,
who
have
ever
lived.
Her
name
was
Amelia
Earhart.
Ms.
Earhart
believed:
The
most
difficult
thing,
is
the
decision
to
act,
the
rest
is
merely
tenacity.
The
fears
are
paper
tigers.
You
can
do
anything
you
decide
to
do.
You
can
act
to
change
and
control
your
life;
and
the
procedure,
the
process
is
its
own
reward.
I
found
a
really
good
article
called
The
Hidden
Traps
in
Decision
Makin
by
John
S.
Hammond,
Ralph
L.
Keeney,
and
Howard
Raiffa.
In
the
article
they
talk
about
the
traps
we
all
fall
into
when
we
make
a
decision.
The
traps
are
as
follows:
• Following
the
status
quo
when
making
a
decision.
• Never
think
of
the
status
quo
as
your
only
alternative.
• Ask
yourself
whether
you
would
choose
the
status-­quo,
if
in
fact,
it
weren’t
the
status
quo.
• Avoid
exaggerating
the
cost
involved
in
switching
from
the
status-­quo.
• Don’t
default
to
the
status
quo
just
because
you’re
having
a
hard
time
picking
the
best
alternative.
• Make
a
conscious
effort
to
set
aside
any
sunken
costs.
• Remember
the
wise
words
of
Warren
Buffett:
“When
you
find
yourself
in
a
hole,
the
best
thing
you
can
do
is
stop
digging.”
• Get
someone
you
respect
to
play
devil’s
advocate,
to
argue
against
the
decision
you’re
contemplating.
• Always
try
to
reframe
the
problem
in
various
ways.
• Always
start
by
considering
the
extremes,
the
low
and
high
ends
of
the
possible
range
of
impacts
and
out-­comes.
In
another
article
called
Evidence-­‐Based
Management
by
Jeffery
Pfeffer
and
Robert
I.
Sutton,
they
state
the
following:

4. • Remember
that
if
you
only
copy
what
other
people
or
companies
do,
the
best
you
can
be
is
a
perfect
imitation.
• Learn
from
the
experience
of
others
inside
and
outside
your
industry.
If
you
consistently
implement
best
practices
better
than
your
rivals,
you
will
beat
the
competition.
• Do
sound
logic
and
evidence
indicate
that
the
benchmarking
the
experience
of
other
success
attributable
to
the
practice
we
seek
to
emulate.
• Are
the
conditions
at
our
company
similar
enough
to
those
at
the
benchmarked
company.
• Why
does
a
given
practice
enhance
performance?
What
is
the
logic
that
links
it
to
bottom-­line
results?
• What
are
the
downsides
of
implementing
the
practice,
even
if
it
is
a
good
idea?
• Get
in
the
habit
of
running
trial
programs,
pilot
studies,
and
small
experiments,
and
thinking
about
the
inferences
that
can
be
drawn
from
them.
• Evidence
based
managers
are
not
know-­it-­alls
but
appreciate
how
much
they
do
not
know.
• Evidence
based
managers
act
on
the
best
of
their
knowledge
while
questioning
what
they
know,
and
take
advantage
of
lifelong
learning.
• Encourage
inquiry
and
observation
even
when
rigorous
evidence
is
lacking
and
you
feel
compelled
to
act
quickly.
Another
article
called
What
You
Don’t
Know
About
Making
Decisions
by
David
A.
Garvin
and
Michael
A.
Roberto
lays
out
two
different
ways
to
structure
a
debate.
The
first
structure
is
called
Point-­‐Counterpoint
and
is
achieved
as
follows:
• The
team
divides
into
two
subgroups
A
&
B.
• Subgroup
A
develops
a
proposal
containing
recommendations,
key
assumptions,
and
critical
supporting
data.
• Subgroup
A
presents
the
proposal
to
subgroup
B
in
written
&
oral
forms.
• Subgroup
B
generates
one
or
more
alternative
plans.
• The
subgroups
come
together
for
debate
and
to
reach
an
agreement
on
a
set
of
recommendations.
The
second
structure
is
called
Intellectual
Watchdog
and
is
executed
as
follows:
• The
team
divides
into
two
subgroups.
• Subgroup
A
develops
a
proposal
with
recommendations,
key
assumptions,
&
critical
supporting
data.
• Subgroup
A
presents
the
proposal
to
Subgroup
B
in
written
&
oral
forms.
• Subgroup
B
Develops
a
detailed
critique
of
Subgroup
A’s
proposal,
and
presents
the
critique
in
written
&
oral
forms
to
Subgroup
A.
• Subgroup
A
revises
its
proposal
based
on
Subgroup
B’s
feedback.
• The
subgroups
continue
this
revision-­critique-­revision
cycle
until
they
converge
on
a
common
set
of
assumptions.
• Then
the
subgroups
work
together
to
develop
a
common
set
of
recommendations.
The
last
article,
I
would
like
to
share
with
you
is
Make
Better
Decisions
by
Thomas
H.
Davenport,
Mr.
Davenport
they
lay
out
four
steps
to
making
a
decision.
They
are
as
follows:

5.
1. List
and
prioritize
the
decisions
that
must
be
made.
2. Assess
the
factors
that
go
into
each,
such
as
who
plays
what
role,
how
often
the
decision
must
be
made,
and
what
information
is
available
to
support
it.
3. Design
the
roles,
processes,
systems,
and
behaviors
your
organization
needs.
4. Institutionalize
decision
tools
and
assistance.
I
hope
you
have
made
the
decision
to
keep
reading
this
article,
and
that
your
decision
allowed
you
to
learn
a
few
ways
to
make
better
decisions.
Just
to
recap,
we
have
discussed
the
group
techniques
for
decision-­‐making,
which
involves
Brainstorming,
Nominal
Group
Technique,
Delphi,
Idea/Mind
Mapping,
and
Affinity
Diagram.
We
looked
how
hard
it
is
to
make
a
decision
and
some
good
reasons
for
making
decisions.
We
talked
about
Hidden
Traps
in
decision-­‐making.
We
showed
how
Evidence
Based-­‐Management
should
be
implemented,
and
we
looked
at
ways
to
Structure
a
Debate,
and
steps
for
making
a
good
decision.
I
would
like
to
leave
you
with
a
quote
from
Steve
Jobs,
which
I
think
sums
up
the
process
of
making
a
decision
“Again,
you
can't
connect
the
dots
looking
forward;
you
can
only
connect
them
looking
backwards.
So
you
have
to
trust
that
the
dots
will
somehow
connect
in
your
future.
You
have
to
trust
in
something
-­
your
gut,
destiny,
life,
karma,
[a
process],
whatever.
This
approach
has
never
let
me
down,
and
it
has
made
all
the
difference
in
my
life.”
Copyright,
2015
Shaun
G.
Smith