This presentation project is focused on foresight or longer-term radical innovation based on a planning model of three horizons, highly actionable. The presentation describes a model initially developed by the principal researchers at Stanford University for long-term innovation. The model has been proven to work with European firms (e.g., Airbus, Syngenta, Volvo); however, it requires further changes to adapt it to Switzerland. The dominant model addresses three innovation horizons, whereas we want to extend it to four horizons. The presentation described some reflections on further refinements in the process, including adding Horizon 4, which we think should lead to a self-help “foresight cookbook”. This will be achieved by describing the approaches through an action research approach that will allow for reflection from multiple workshops with both firms and mixed student groups (with up to 200 international students). The work presented will describe three key results of the study: • an actionable foresight innovation process; some of the radical innovations that have come out of the processes; • clarify how this can help firms be more innovative in a changing environment. The weakness within the firms of the approach has been associated with the “innovation readiness and capacity” of the firm. The researchers consider that this needs to be measured so that innovation can be more readily accepted. To do this they present an innovation readiness check (based on a survey methodology) to help measure this key success factor.

1. Foresighting the future
to create actionable innovation
SWISSED20 – Swiss Society of Systems Engineering, Zürich
16 September 2020
Dr. Tamara Carleton
Innovation Leadership Group
Presented by
Dr. Shaun West, HSLU
Dr. William Cockayne
Stanford University

2. SWISSED20 – Swiss Society of Systems Engineering, Zürich, Zürich, 16 September 2020| Dr Shaun West
Purpose
To understand Actionable Foresight so that it can be applied within a Swiss context
The Call to Action
Introduction to the actionable foresight
Lessons from industry and university programs
Creating Actionable Foresight within a Swiss context
Our Vision
We need to be
better at thinking
and acting "in the
long term" within
a Swiss context

3. SWISSED20 – Swiss Society of Systems Engineering, Zürich, Zürich, 16 September 2020| Dr Shaun West
Marc Wetli / NZZ
«Der Schweiz fehlt oft
der Mut, gross zu denken»
Michael Hengartner
Der neue Präsident des ETH-Rats
https://nzzas.nzz.ch/schweiz/michael-hengartner-der-schweiz-fehlt-oft-der-mut-ld.1571539

4. SWISSED20 – Swiss Society of Systems Engineering, Zürich, Zürich, 16 September 2020| Dr Shaun West
«We have a process
we call Trees, Plants,
and Seeds.»
Bracken Darrel
CEO of Logitech
https://monocle.com/radio/shows/the-chiefs/13/

5. SWISSED20 – Swiss Society of Systems Engineering, Zürich, Zürich, 16 September 2020| Dr Shaun West
A working definition of foresight, which provides foundation for vision-led innovation
FORESIGHT: the ability to plan from the future
• A mix of mindset and methodology: an imaginative and analytical view
of the future with the practice of looking backward across the change
• Provides decision points today that define future opportunity and action
• Embraces ambiguity as part of decision making, collaboration,
leadership, invention, exploration, along with customer research,
dialogue, and testing
Source: Innovation Leadership Group LLC

6. SWISSED20 – Swiss Society of Systems Engineering, Zürich, Zürich, 16 September 2020| Dr Shaun West
The original three-horizon framework
Consultants introduced the model to understand how companies sustain growth
© All Rights Reserved - McKinsey

7. SWISSED20 – Swiss Society of Systems Engineering, Zürich, Zürich, 16 September 2020| Dr Shaun West
Facebook CEO Zuckerberg presents a 10-year roadmap showing three horizons
He defined H1 as ecosystems, H2 as products, H3 as technologies
Facebook described its business
to developers in three horizons:
• H3 is where the company
develops new products that
it hopes to put in users' hands
• H2 are products that have 1
Billion users
• H1 are services with 1 Billion
users that generate a profit
© All Rights Reserved - Facebook

8. SWISSED20 – Swiss Society of Systems Engineering, Zürich, Zürich, 16 September 2020| Dr Shaun West
Different activities, skills and metrics occur at each horizon, and across boundaries
Companies may use different labels to understand each horizon, and move it forward
CHF $ €
Productize
New markets
New biz dev
M&A
Labs
R&D
Emtech
Sustain Grow Evolve

9. SWISSED20 – Swiss Society of Systems Engineering, Zürich, Zürich, 16 September 2020| Dr Shaun West
Different activities, skills and metrics occur at each horizon, and across boundaries
Companies may use different labels to understand each horizon, and move it forward
CHF $ €
Productize
New markets
New biz dev
M&A
Labs
R&D
Emtech
Sustain Grow Evolve
Where do your
revolutionary ideas,
teams, and talent
come from?
And how do
you make
radical innovation
actionable?

10. SWISSED20 – Swiss Society of Systems Engineering, Zürich, Zürich, 16 September 2020| Dr Shaun West
METHODOLOGY

11. SWISSED20 – Swiss Society of Systems Engineering, Zürich, Zürich, 16 September 2020| Dr Shaun West
Methodology
Action research has been our approach to advancing the existing playbook
Stanford Foresight & Innovation program
with over 500 students (Cockayne)
Industry projects - Airbus, Syngenta,
AB Volvo, Nestlé Purina (Carleton)
Year-long Masters project focused on
Future Customers (West)
5
PERSPECTIVE OPPORTUNITY SOLUTION TEAM VISION
Playbook for
Strategic Foresight
and Innovation
METHOD SHORTCUTS
https://innovation.io/playbook/

12. SWISSED20 – Swiss Society of Systems Engineering, Zürich, Zürich, 16 September 2020| Dr Shaun West
OBSERVATIONS

13. SWISSED20 – Swiss Society of Systems Engineering, Zürich, Zürich, 16 September 2020| Dr Shaun West
We gathered data from multiple Stanford programs run across two years
Over 400 high school & college students used four horizons to deliver moonshot-level solutions
ShipBuildImagine
© All Rights Reserved - William Cockayne
Students with no experience in imagining "almost impossible" (Jeff Bezos of Amazon) opportunities
created visionary solutions and created actionable plans to reach forward and reason back

14. SWISSED20 – Swiss Society of Systems Engineering, Zürich, Zürich, 16 September 2020| Dr Shaun West
We sifted through data from radical innovation progrems with industrial partners
Four major programs run by the Innovation Leadership Group served as framing tools
Across the four organizational- and team-centric programs, the fundamental question always
circled back to “How do we continuously look for our next potential opportunity?”
© All Rights Reserved – Tamara Carleton / All Logos and Branding rights reserved by respective owners
Empowering a team of
innovation leaders to build
for radical future needs.
Building an organizational
ability in radical innovation
with nascent executives
Building three radical
innovation teams that take
the entire company into
the far future, starting now
Enabling the organization
to go “beyond trends” to
develop a future product
focus and internal ability.

15. SWISSED20 – Swiss Society of Systems Engineering, Zürich, Zürich, 16 September 2020| Dr Shaun West
We gathered data from the year-long project with Future Customers at the core
The focus was mobility in the future city in a Swiss context
bag support access to person
parking booking access to vehicle
Building to Building mobility space recognition
search waiting time
announcement
cancellation report service
find service order and pay service
book/reserve service energy management
building and city related information doors and windows opening/closing
fail-safe technology blocking
check-in/out temporary locking
delivery
call the elevator, floor choice navigation/ virtual assistant
private cabin notification of arrival
ads service group meeting
visualizing kids safety
Halting/failure response people flow
job-done-tracker plan the visit
be on time space management
Mood settings (ADD-ONs)
top
good
very
interesting
userspecific
4. Results
Smart journey of the Future 11
bag support access to person
parking booking access to vehicle
Building to Building mobility space recognition
search waiting time
announcement
cancellation report service
find service order and pay service
book/reserve service energy management
building and city related information doors and windows opening/closing
fail-safe technology blocking
check-in/out temporary locking
delivery
call the elevator, floor choice navigation/ virtual assistant
private cabin notification of arrival
ads service group meeting
visualizing kids safety
Halting/failure response people flow
job-done-tracker plan the visit
be on time space management
Mood settings (ADD-ONs)
top
good
very
interesting
userspecific
Why do I
need it?That’s
cool!
When I
get it?
How about
this?
Imagine: ideation and evaluation Solution concept: define
For people and business
Future Journey Maps provided rich insights into "tomorrow's" everyday life, from H1 to H4
Entirely new actionable solutions were imagined
and built from tying horizon 4 back to today
© All Rights Reserved – Shaun West / All Logos and Branding rights reserved by respective owners

16. SWISSED20 – Swiss Society of Systems Engineering, Zürich, Zürich, 16 September 2020| Dr Shaun West
REFLECTIONS

17. SWISSED20 – Swiss Society of Systems Engineering, Zürich, Zürich, 16 September 2020| Dr Shaun West
We added a fourth horizon to show where visionary innovation begins & leads H3 invention
H4 sources = the "almost impossible", science fiction, edge communities, step changes…
TODAY
Develop testable
perspectives
on the long-term
(horizon 3)
Chase new growth
opportunities for
the mid-term
(horizon 2)
Deliver product &
service solutions
in the near-term
(horizon 1)
Imagine the
impossible over
the horizon
(horizon 4)
H1 H4H3H2
Visionary leadership,
exploration, and
moonshot research
© All Rights Reserved - William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

18. SWISSED20 – Swiss Society of Systems Engineering, Zürich, Zürich, 16 September 2020| Dr Shaun West
Reflections
Adding the fourth-horizon aligns a Swiss Context with proven Actionable Foresight
Leaders of industry and academy say we need a new future-focus
Building imagination into daily practice enables us to think beyond
Corporations have been consistently investing in long-term success
The long-view can drive decisions in every timeframe, including today
Our Vision
We need to be
better at thinking
and acting "in the
long term" within
a Swiss context

19. SWISSED20 – Swiss Society of Systems Engineering, Zürich, Zürich, 16 September 2020| Dr Shaun West
For more information please visit slideshare.net/ShaunWest
Who we are…
Collaboration is key with the development of shared foresight