This document provides an assessment of construction labour markets in Ontario from 2012 to 2020. It finds that construction employment is expected to increase by 44,000 workers over this period, with most growth concentrated in the Greater Toronto Area. Key challenges include replacing the estimated 77,000 construction workers who will retire and attracting additional workers to meet expansion demand requirements. Labour market rankings are expected to tighten periodically during peak periods of major project activity in different regions of the province.

1. CONSTRUCTION LOOKING FORWARD
An Assessment of Construction Labour
Markets from 2012 to 2020
ONTARIO

2. Construction Looking Forward
Ontario
Contents
§
§
§
§
§
§
§
Highlights and Introduction
Economic Assumptions
Investment Outlook: Building Trends and Major Projects
Construction Labour Requirements
The Available Workforce
Market Rankings and Mobility
Conclusion
Note: Definitions, methodology and detailed tables are available at
www.constructionforecasts.ca

3. Introduction
Construction Looking Forward 2012
§ Reports on the state of construction labour markets in Ontario from
2012 to 2020 are based on:
• a current macroeconomic and demographic scenario
• a current inventory of major construction projects
• the views and input of provincial LMI committees

4. Highlights
§ Construction has been a leading employment-generating industry
for more than 20 years in Ontario, and is poised to remain so for
the foreseeable future.
§ Construction employment for the trades and occupations tracked
by the CSC will expand by almost 44,000 workers (14 percent)
across the scenario period, with 14,000 (9 percent) in residential
construction and 30,000 (17 percent) in non-residential
construction.
• The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) dominates employment
growth in Ontario, accounting for 70 percent, or 30,000 of the
44,000 new jobs created.
§ Although the estimated 44,000 new jobs are just half compared to
the additions to the workforce recruited over the past eight years,
investments in support systems and human resource planning may
be tested as the next round of building projects unfold from 2012 to
2020.

5. Highlights
§ At the provincial level, labour requirements are evenly dispersed
across the scenario period, but changes in regional markets are
very different and attention shifts to distinct regional patterns.
§ Peaks and troughs punctuate cycles in major utility, industrial and
infrastructure projects in the GTA, and the Southwest and Northern
regions of the province.
§ Recruiting faces increased challenges from the growing loss of
skilled and experienced workers, as 77,000 workers are expected
to retire.
§ To address expansion and replacement demand requirements,
industry will need to recruit an estimated 120,000 new workers to
construction.

6. Economic Environment
§ It is assumed that the federal and provincial governments will
begin to reduce both current and capital expenditures in an effort
to eliminate deficits.
§ The short- to medium-term outlook for major trading partners is
weaker.
§ In the long-term, economic growth strengthens in both major
trading partners and Canada, as deficits and debt come under
control.
§ Canadian output growth will average around 2 percent across the
2012–2020 period.
§ In the medium term, inflation and interest rates remain low, but
rise in the long term as growth strengthens.
§ The Canada-U.S. exchange rate remains strong in the short term,
but falls toward its underlying value over the scenario period.

7. Economic Environment
Commodity prices
§ Oil prices recovered in 2010 and into 2011, but are expected to
weaken somewhat in 2012 and 2013 in line with weaker world
growth, and then recover thereafter in line with stronger economic
growth.
§ Natural gas prices remain weak because of expected increases in
shale gas and then start to strengthen after 2015.
§ Agricultural prices continue upward over the scenario period
reflecting a tightening of these markets.
§ Metals and mineral prices continue to trend upward, reflecting the
growth of the world economy driven to a large extent by China and
Asia.

8. Investment Outlook
Construction by sector
§ Residential investment slows in 2012, but increases in 2013, with a
modest rate of growth sustained through to 2020.
§ Renovation expenditures increase steadily, but moderately.
§ Non-residential activity rises across the scenario period – driven by
large mining and utility projects.

9. Residential Construction Investment
($2002 millions)
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
New housing
Renovations
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
0
2003
2,000

10. Housing Starts and
Household Formation (000s)
90,000
85,000
80,000
75,000
70,000
65,000
60,000
55,000
50,000
Housing starts
Household formation
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
40,000
2003
45,000

11. Non-residential Construction
($2002 millions)
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
Building
Engineering
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
0
2003
2,000

12. Investment Outlook for the Province –
Major Projects
Northern
Ontario
-­‐
mining
(Ring
of
Fire)
-­‐
u0li0es
Central
Ontario
-­‐
light
rail
transit
-­‐
infrastructure
-­‐
Pan
American
Games
-­‐
u0li0es
Greater
Toronto
Area
-­‐
u0li0es
(new
nuclear
and
refurbishments,
transmission)
-­‐
Pan
American
Games
-­‐
Metrolinx
-­‐
other
infrastructure
Eastern
Ontario
-­‐
light
rail
transit
-­‐
infrastructure
-­‐
u0li0es
Southwest
Ontario
-­‐
Windsor
parkway/bridge
-­‐
nuclear
refurbishments
-­‐
infrastructure
-­‐
wind
farms/solar

13. Investment Outlook for the Province
Ontario: selected major projects
§ The CSC tracks major projects underway or planned for
construction in the province. While there are too many to list here,
following are a few examples:
• Mining
o Eagles Nest (Noront Resources)
o Black Thor (Cliffs Natural Resources)
o Copper Cliff nickel smelter emission reduction (Vale)
o Copper Cliff nickel mine replacement/expansion (Vale)
o Clarabelle Mill (Vale)
o Detour Lake (Detour Gold Corp.)

14. Investment Outlook for the Province
Ontario: selected major projects
• Utilities
o OPG (various projects, including new nuclear and refurbishments)
o Bruce Power nuclear refurbishments
o wind/solar projects
• Pan American Games
o Athlete’s Village
o Aquatics Centre
o Velodrome
o various other venues

15. Investment Outlook for the Province
Ontario: selected major projects
• Infrastructure (various projects across Ontario)
o Oakville Hospital (other heath care facilities across the province)
o Ottawa light rail transit system
o Waterloo light rail transit system
§
§
§
§
Windsor–Essex Parkway
Detroit River International Crossing (DRIC)
Pearson International Airport rail link
subway stations upgrades/extensions
• Infrastructure Ontario
o long list of projects underway and proposed
• Metrolinx
o various transit projects

16. Building Construction
($2002 millions)
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
Industrial
Commercial and institutional
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
0
2003
2,000

17. Engineering Construction
($2002 millions)
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
Highway and bridge
Other engineering
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
0
2003
2,000

18. Construction Labour Requirements
Employment scenario for Ontario, 2012–2020
§ Steady recovery in construction across both residential and nonresidential sectors leads economic recovery in Ontario:
• non-residential rises by 14 percent
• residential rises by 10 percent
§ Construction activity is concentrated in the GTA
• engineering projects lead all sectors
• industrial, commercial and institutional rises steadily
§ More volatile housing and major project cycles dominate in the
Central, Eastern, Southwest and Northern regions.

19. Construction Employment in Ontario
History
400,000
Scenario
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
Non-residential
Residential
Total
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0
2007
50,000
2006
Number of workers
350,000

20. Construction Labour Requirements
Employment scenario for the regions, 2012–2020
§ Residential recovery resumes in 2013 and a modest rate of growth
is sustained through 2020.
§ Non-residential work in the GTA dominates all new jobs in Ontario.
§ Growth in industrial, commercial and institutional building bolsters
activity across the regions.
§ The timing of big engineering and industrial projects tightens labour
markets at different times in specific regions:
• GTA – 2015 to 2018
• Northern – 2012 and 2013
• Southwest – 2015

21. Residential Construction Investment
and Employment Index for Ontario
180
170
150
140
130
120
110
100
New residential investment
Residential employment
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
80
2007
90
2006
Index 2009 =100
160
Residential renovation and maintenance

22. Non-residential Construction Investment
and Employment Index for Ontario
160
150
130
120
110
100
Industrial, commercial and institutional construction investment
Engineering investment
Non-residential employment
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
80
2007
90
2006
Index 2009 =100
140

23. The Available Workforce – Ontario
Supply-side adjustments
§ Unemployment rates reached record low levels 2007.
§ Unemployment in 2009 exceeded long-term rates.
§ Recovery in 2010 and 2011 brought conditions in most markets
back to more normal historical levels.
§ Sustained requirements over the scenario period keep rates below
long-term normal or average levels.

24. The Available Workforce – Ontario
Supply-side adjustments
§ Supply side, 2012 to 2020:
• labour force requirements rise by 43,000 in response to
expansion demand
• estimated retirements total 77,000 workers
• expansion plus replacement demand is estimated at 120,000
workers
• total demand requirements are expected to be partially offset
by an estimated 60,000 first-time new entrants into the
construction workforce (comprises local residents aged 30 and
younger)
• industry will need to attract an additional 60,000 workers as net
in-mobility rises to balance labour demand requirements

25. Change in Construction
Labour Force in Ontario
25,000
Total
change
in
labour
force
N
=
New
entrants
N
+
Net
in-­‐mobility
N
-­‐
Re:rements
N
20,000
Number of workers
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
-5,000
-10,000
-15,000
2011 2012
Net in-mobility
Retirements
2013
2014
2015
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
New entrants
Total change in labour force

26. The Available Workforce – Ontario
Supply-side adjustments
§ Mobility between regions will not meet peak requirements.
• Net-in mobility is positive in all regions in most years.
§ The largest demands for in-mobility are over the near term for
Northern Ontario and across most of the scenario period for the
Greater Toronto Area.

27. Labour Market Rankings
§ Market conditions are assessed by combining four measures into
a ranking:
•
excess supply (unemployment)
•
annual change in employment
•
net in-mobility as a percent of the labour force
•
industry consultations
§ Rankings describe conditions on a scale from 1 to 5.

28. Labour Market Rankings
5
Qualified workers are not available in local or
adjacent markets. Competition is intense.
4
Qualified workers are generally not available in local
and adjacent markets. Recruiting may extend
beyond traditional sources and practices.
3
Qualified workers in the local market may be limited
by short-term increases in demand. Established
patterns of recruiting are sufficient.
2
Qualified workers are available in local or adjacent
markets.
1
Qualified workers are available in local markets.
Excess supply is apparent. Workers may move to
other markets.

29. Labour Market Rankings for Ontario
Trades and occupations
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Boilermakers
3
5
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
Bricklayers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Carpenters
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Concrete finishers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Construction estimators
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Construction managers
3
3
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics
3
5
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
Contractors and supervisors
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Crane operators
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Drillers and blasters
2
4
3
1
4
3
3
2
3
2
Electricians (including industrial and power system)
3
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Elevator constructors and mechanics
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Floor covering installers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Gasfitters
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Glaziers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Heavy equipment operators (except crane)
3
4
3
2
3
3
3
2
3
3
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics
3
4
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
3

30. Labour Market Rankings for Ontario
Trades and occupations
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics
2
3
4
5
5
4
4
4
3
1
Insulators
Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators and
fitters
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Painters and decorators
Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and
lathers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Plumbers
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics
Residential and commercial installers and
servicers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Residential home builders and renovators
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Roofers and shinglers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Sheet metal workers
Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system
installers
3
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
5
4
3
3
3
4
4
3
2
Tilesetters
4
3
3
3
4
3
3
3
4
4
Trades helpers and labourers
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
Truck drivers
3
4
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
Welders and related machine operators
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3

31. Construction Labour Requirements –
Greater Toronto Area
GTA scenario, 2012–2020
§ Employment gains in the GTA lead all regions.
§ GTA dominates provincial growth, adding 30,000 construction jobs
– 70 percent of all new construction employment in Ontario.
• Non-residential employment rises by 24,000.
• Residential employment rises by 6,000.
§ Employment requirements are driven by:
• large Industrial and electrical utility projects, including nuclear
• steady rise in commercial and institutional-related building,
including the Pan American games, public transportation
infrastructure and health services-related projects

32. Construction Employment
in the Greater Toronto Area
History
180,000
Scenario
160,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
Non-Residential
Residential
Total
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0
2007
20,000
2006
Number of workers
140,000

33. Residential Construction Investment
and Employment Index for the
Greater Toronto Area
200
History
Scenario
160
140
120
Residential renovation and maintenance
New residential investment
Residential employment
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
80
2007
100
2006
Index 2009 =100
180

34. Residential Construction
Employment Index for Selected Trades
in the Greater Toronto Area
150
History
Scenario
130
120
110
100
Carpenters
Plasterers, drywall installers
Residential home builders and renovators
Trades helpers
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
80
2007
90
2006
Index 2009 =100
140

35. Non-residential Construction
Investment and Employment Index
for the Greater Toronto Area
240
History
Scenario
200
180
160
140
120
Engineering investment
Industrial, commercial and institutional construction investment
Non-residential employment
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
80
2007
100
2006
Index 2009 =100
220

36. Non-residential Construction
Employment Index for Selected Trades
in the Greater Toronto Area
330
History
Scenario
230
180
Boilermakers
Construction millwrights
Electricians
Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
80
2007
130
2006
Index 2009 =100
280

37. Non-residential Construction
Employment Index for Selected Trades
in the Greater Toronto Area
160
History
Scenario
140
130
120
110
100
Heavy equipment operators
Concrete finishers
Trades helpers
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
80
2007
90
2006
Index 2009 =100
150
Truck drivers

38. The Available Workforce –
Greater Toronto Area
Supply-side adjustments
§ Supply side, 2012 to 2020:
• labour force requirements rise by 32,000 in response to
expansion demand
• estimated retirements total 31,000 workers
• expansion plus replacement demand is estimated at 63,000
workers
• total demand requirements are expected to be partially offset
by an estimated 25,000 first-time new entrants into the
construction workforce (comprises local residents aged 30 and
younger)
• industry will need to attract an additional 38,000 workers as net
in-mobility rises to balance labour demand requirements

39. Change in Construction Labour
Force in the Greater Toronto Area
Total
change
in
labour
force
N
=
New
entrants
N
+
Net
in-­‐mobility
N
-­‐
Re:rements
N
10,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
-2,000
Net in-mobility
Retirements
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
-6,000
2012
-4,000
2011
Number of workers
8,000
New entrants
Total change in labour force

40. Labour Market Rankings –
Greater Toronto Area
Trades and occupations
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Boilermakers
3
5
4
5
5
5
5
5
3
1
Bricklayers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Carpenters
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Concrete finishers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
3
3
Construction estimators
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Construction managers
4
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics
3
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
3
1
Contractors and supervisors
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
3
Crane operators
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
Drillers and blasters
2
4
3
3
4
4
4
4
2
1
Electricians (including industrial and power system)
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
2
Elevator constructors and mechanics
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Floor covering installers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Gasfitters
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Glaziers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Heavy equipment operators (except crane)
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
3
2

41. Labour Market Rankings –
Greater Toronto Area
Trades and occupations
Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
3
4
4
4
5
5
5
4
3
1
Insulators
Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators and
fitters
Painters and decorators
Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and
lathers
Plumbers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
3
3
3
4
3
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
3
3
Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Residential and commercial installers and servicers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Residential home builders and renovators
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
Roofers and shinglers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Sheet metal workers
Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system
installers
Tilesetters
4
4
3
4
4
4
4
4
3
2
4
5
4
5
5
5
5
5
3
1
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Trades helpers and labourers
4
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
Truck drivers
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
3
2
Welders and related machine operators
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
3
2

42. Construction Labour Requirements –
Central Ontario
Central Ontario scenario, 2012–2020
§ Central Ontario is on a steady growth track that was interrupted by
the economic downturn. The construction scenario is characterized
by the following:
• a steady, but drawn out, recovery in residential construction
fuelled by growth in household formation
• an increase in non-residential activity spurred by the coinciding
rise in population growth
• steady rise in overall construction employment, increasing by
18 percent over the scenario period
• balanced gains across the residential and non-residential
sectors, which rise by 19 percent and 17 percent respectively

43. Construction Employment –
Central Ontario
120,000
History
Scenario
80,000
60,000
40,000
Non-residential
Residential
Total
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0
2007
20,000
2006
Number of workers
100,000

44. Construction Labour Requirements –
Central Ontario
Central Ontario scenario, 2012–2020
§ Investment in new housing rises modestly through 2014 before
accelerating in the latter half of the scenario period.
• Residential employment rises by 7,300.
• Sixty (60) percent of gains are concentrated in the final four
years of the scenario period.
§ Growth in industrial, commercial and institutional construction (ICI)
offsets declining engineering investment.
• Overall, non-residential construction employment grows by
7,500 over the scenario period.
• Employment gains are greatest for trades and occupations
involved with ICI construction.

45. Residential Construction Investment and
Employment Index for Central Ontario
180
History
Scenario
170
150
140
130
120
110
100
New residential investment
Residential employment
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
80
2007
90
2006
Index 2009 =100
160
Residential renovation and maintenance

46. Non-residential Construction
Investment and Employment Index
for Central Ontario
160
History
Scenario
150
130
120
110
100
Non-residential employment
Industrial, commercial and institutional construction investment
Engineering investment
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
80
2007
90
2006
Index 2009 =100
140

47. Non-residential Construction Employment
Index for Selected Trades
in Central Ontario
160
History
Scenario
150
130
120
110
100
Carpenters
Construction managers
Plasterers, drywall installers
Trades helpers
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
80
2007
90
2006
Index 2009 =100
140

48. The Available Workforce –
Central Ontario
Supply-side adjustments
§ Supply side, 2012 to 2020:
• labour force requirements rise by 14,000 in response to
expansion demand
• estimated retirements total 20,000 workers
• expansion plus replacement demand is estimated at 34,000
workers
• total demand requirements are expected to be partially offset
by an estimated 17,000 first-time new entrants into the
construction workforce (comprises local residents aged 30 and
younger)
• industry will need to attract an additional 17,000 workers as net
in-mobility rises to balance labour demand requirements

49. Change in Construction
Labour Force in Central Ontario
Total
change
in
labour
force
N
=
New
entrants
N
+
Net
in-­‐mobility
N
-­‐
Re:rements
N
5,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
Net in-mobility
New entrants
Retirements
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
-3,000
2012
-2,000
2011
Number of workers
4,000
Total change in labour force

50. Labour Market Rankings –
Central Ontario
Trades and occupations
Boilermakers
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
3
3
3
2
2
3
3
3
3
2
Bricklayers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
Carpenters
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
Concrete finishers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
Construction estimators
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
Construction managers
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics
3
3
3
3
2
4
3
3
3
2
Contractors and supervisors
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
Crane operators
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Drillers and blasters
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
2
Electricians (including industrial and power system)
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Elevator constructors and mechanics
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Floor covering installers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Gasfitters
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Glaziers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Heavy equipment operators (except crane)
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3

51. Labour Market Rankings –
Central Ontario
Trades and occupations
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Insulators
Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators and
fitters
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Painters and decorators
Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and
lathers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Plumbers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics
3
3
3
3
3
4
3
4
4
4
Residential and commercial installers and servicers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
Residential home builders and renovators
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Roofers and shinglers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Sheet metal workers
Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system
installers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
4
3
3
3
2
Tilesetters
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Trades helpers and labourers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
Truck drivers
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Welders and related machine operators
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
3

52. Construction Labour Requirements –
Eastern Ontario
Eastern Ontario scenario, 2012–2020
§ Dragged down by a decline in residential activity, Eastern Ontario
is the weakest of the regions.
• Eastern Ontario faired best over recent history, not suffering a
decline through the 2009 recession.
• An extended residential down cycle beginning in 2013 results
in an erosion of residential employment for six consecutive
years.
o Employment does not begin to recover until 2018.
• Non-residential activity is sustained near current levels over
the scenario period buoyed by steady commercial and
institutional construction and ongoing maintenance.

53. Construction Employment
in Eastern Ontario
History
45,000
Scenario
40,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
Non-residential
Residential
Total
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0
2007
5,000
2006
Number of workers
35,000

54. Construction Labour Requirements
in Eastern Ontario
Eastern Ontario scenario, 2012–2020
§ Residential employment declines by 3,000 (14 percent) over the
scenario period.
• Trades and occupations involved in new residential
construction incur bigger employment losses relative to those
involved in renovation and maintenance work.
§ Non-residential employment rises by 1,000 (4 percent) over the
same period.
§ A net decline in overall employment of 2,000 leaves 2020
employment down about 5 percent when compared to the 2011
level.

55. Residential Construction
Investment and Employment Index
for Eastern Ontario
History
130
Scenario
110
100
90
80
New residential investment
Residential renovation and maintenance
Residential employment
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
60
2007
70
2006
Index 2009 =100
120

56. Residential Construction
Employment Index for Selected Trades
in Eastern Ontario
120
History
Scenario
100
90
80
Carpenters
Plasterers, drywall installers
Residential home builders and renovators
Trades helpers
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
60
2007
70
2006
Index 2009 =100
110

57. Non-Residential Construction
Investment and Employment Index
for Eastern Ontario
140
Scenario
History
120
110
100
Industrial, commercial and institutional construction investment
Engineering investment
Non-residential employment
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
80
2007
90
2006
Index 2009 =100
130

58. The Available Workforce –
Eastern Ontario
Supply-side adjustments
§ Supply side, 2012 to 2020:
• labour force requirements decrease by 2,650 in response to a
decline in residential construction activity
• estimated retirements total 9,500 workers
• replacement demand less the decline in the labour force
leaves an estimated 6,900 jobs
• total demand requirements will be offset by the estimated
7,000 first-time new entrants expected to enter the
construction workforce (comprises local residents aged 30 and
younger)

59. Change in Construction
Labour Force in Eastern Ontario
2,500
Total
change
in
labour
force
N
=
New
entrants
N
+
Net
in-­‐mobility
N
-­‐
Re:rements
N
1,500
1,000
500
0
-500
-1,000
New in-mobility
New entrants
Retirements
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
-2,000
2012
-1,500
2011
Number of workers
2,000
Total change in labour force

60. Labour Market Rankings –
Eastern Ontario
Trades and occupations
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bricklayers
3
3
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
Carpenters
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
Concrete finishers
3
3
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
Construction estimators
3
3
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
Construction managers
3
3
2
2
2
1
2
2
3
4
Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics
1
3
5
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
Contractors and supervisors
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Crane operators
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Electricians (including industrial and power system)
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Elevator constructors and mechanics
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Floor covering installers
3
3
3
2
3
2
3
3
3
3
Gasfitters
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Glaziers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Heavy equipment operators (except crane)
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3

61. Labour Market Rankings –
Eastern Ontario
Trades and occupations
Insulators
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators and fitters 3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Painters and decorators
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and lathers 3
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
Plumbers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Residential and commercial installers and servicers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Residential home builders and renovators
3
3
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
Roofers and shinglers
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
Sheet metal workers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers 2
2
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Tilesetters
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
Trades helpers and labourers
3
3
2
2
3
2
3
3
3
3
Truck drivers
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Welders and related machine operators
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3

62. Construction Labour Requirements –
Southwest Ontario
Southwestern Ontario scenario, 2012–2020
§ The Southwestern region suffered the steepest economic decline
through the 2008–2009 recession.
§ Major utilities and civil infrastructure-related projects have been the
primary drivers of a modest recovery in construction employment.
§ The start of a new housing cycle in 2012 contributes to the
recovery in overall construction employment.
§ Overall, construction employment rises 21 percent to peak levels in
2017 before retreating to just shy of 2007 pre-recessionary levels
by the end of the scenario period.

63. Construction Employment
in Southwest Ontario
History
45,000
Scenario
40,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
Non-Residential
Residential
Total
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0
2007
5,000
2006
Number of workers
35,000

64. Construction Labour Requirements –
Southwest Ontario
Southwest Ontario scenario, 2012–2020
§ The current level of construction activity is sustained by major nonresidential infrastructure, highway, bridge, electrical utility and civil
engineering projects. Many of these projects wind down in 2013.
§ A second wave of major engineering and heavy construction
projects starts in 2015, coinciding with peak demands related to
new housing activity.
§ The local construction workforce may not be able to meet the
coinciding residential and non-residential demands in 2015.

65. Residential Construction
Investment and Employment Index
for Southwest Ontario
330
History
Scenario
230
180
New residential investment
Residential employment
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
80
2007
130
2006
Index 2009 =100
280
Residential renovation and maintenance

66. Non-residential Construction
Investment and Employment Index
for Southwest Ontario
220
Scenario
History
180
160
140
120
Industrial, commercial and institutional investment
Engineering investment
Non-residential employment
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
80
2007
100
2006
Index 2009 =100
200

67. Non-residential Construction
Employment Index for Selected Trades
in Southwest Ontario
Scenario
History
160
150
Index 2009 =100
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Concrete finishers
Heavy equipment operators
Trades helpers
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
60
2006
70
Truck drivers

68. The Available Workforce –
Southwest Ontario
Supply-side adjustments
§ Supply side, 2012 to 2020:
• labour force requirements rise by 3,200 in response to
expansion demand
• estimated retirements total 8,200 workers
• expansion plus replacement demand is estimated at 11,400
workers
• total demand requirements are expected to be partially offset
by an estimated 6,600 first-time new entrants into the
construction workforce (comprises local residents aged 30
and younger)
• industry will need to attract an additional 4,800 workers as net
in-mobility rises to balance labour demand requirements

69. Change in Construction
Labour Force in Southwest Ontario
5,000
Total
change
in
labour
force
N
=
New
entrants
N
+
Net
in-­‐mobility
N
-­‐
Re:rements
N
4,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
Net in-mobility
New entrants
Retirements
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
-3,000
2012
-2,000
2011
Number of workers
3,000
Total change in labour force

70. Labour Market Rankings –
Southwest Ontario
Trades and occupations
Boilermakers
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2
2
2
3
5
3
1
1
2
3
Bricklayers
2
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
3
2
Carpenters
2
3
3
3
4
4
4
3
3
2
Concrete finishers
3
3
3
3
5
4
3
2
3
3
Construction estimators
2
4
2
2
5
4
4
2
3
2
Construction managers
3
4
3
3
5
5
4
3
3
2
Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics
1
1
3
5
5
3
1
2
3
3
Contractors and supervisors
2
4
2
2
5
4
4
2
3
3
Crane operators
3
5
2
2
5
4
3
2
3
3
Drillers and blasters
3
4
1
1
5
4
3
1
2
2
Electricians (including industrial and power system)
2
2
3
4
5
3
2
3
3
3
Elevator constructors and mechanics
3
3
3
3
4
4
3
3
3
3
Floor covering installers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Gasfitters
2
2
3
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
Glaziers
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
3
3
3
Heavy equipment operators (except crane)
4
5
1
1
5
4
3
1
2
2
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics
3
4
1
1
5
4
3
1
2
3

71. Labour Market Rankings –
Southwest Ontario
Trades and occupations
Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2
1
4
5
5
2
1
1
3
3
Insulators
Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators and
fitters
Painters and decorators
Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and
lathers
Plumbers
2
2
3
4
5
3
3
2
3
3
2
3
2
2
5
4
3
2
3
3
3
4
3
2
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
3
4
5
4
3
3
3
3
Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics
3
3
3
3
4
4
3
3
3
3
Residential and commercial installers and servicers
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
3
3
3
Residential home builders and renovators
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
3
3
2
Roofers and shinglers
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Sheet metal workers
Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system
installers
Tilesetters
2
2
3
4
5
3
2
3
3
3
2
1
2
3
5
3
2
2
3
3
2
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
3
2
Trades helpers and labourers
3
4
3
3
5
4
4
3
4
3
Truck drivers
3
5
1
2
5
4
3
1
3
3
Welders and related machine operators
3
5
1
2
5
4
3
1
3
3

72. Construction Labour Requirements –
Northern Ontario
Northern Ontario scenario, 2012–2020
§ Northern Ontario is a small and remote market driven by big nonresidential projects with labour requirements that exceed the local
workforce.
• Resource and other engineering projects drive employment to
peak levels by 2013.
• Residential activity follows non-residential construction.
Related employment gains peak in 2015.
• Most trades experience tight labour conditions through 2013.
• The start-up of known infrastructure, mining and resource
projects related to the Ring of Fire area are concentrated from
2010 to 2012 and scheduled for completion by 2016.

73. Construction Employment
in Northern Ontario
40,000
Scenario
History
35,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
Non-residential
Residential
Total
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0
2007
5,000
2006
Number of workers
30,000

74. Residential Construction
Investment and Employment Index
for Northern Ontario
310
History
Scenario
210
160
New residential investment
Residential employment
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
60
2007
110
2006
Index 2009 =100
260
Residential renovation and maintenance

75. Non-residential Construction
Investment and Employment Index
for Northern Ontario
280
Scenario
History
260
220
200
180
160
140
120
Industrial, commercial and institutional investment
Engineering investment
Non-residential employment
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
80
2007
100
2006
Index 2009 =100
240

76. The Available Workforce –
Northern Ontario
Supply-side adjustments
§ Supply side, 2012 to 2020:
• labour force declines by 3,100 workers (in response to the
anticipated decline in expansion demand after the 2013 peak, as
some projects begin to wind down)
• estimated retirements total 7,600
• estimated first-time new entrants into the construction workforce
total 4,900 (comprises local residents aged 30 and younger)
• new entrants offset the demand requirements across the entire
scenario; however, the aggregate conceals the following:
o 11,000 workers from outside the local construction market will
be required in the first three years of the scenario period
o these workers are expected to leave as the known projects
wind down

77. Change in Construction
Labour Force in Northern Ontario
8,000
Total
change
in
labour
force
N
=
New
entrants
N
+
Net
in-­‐mobility
N
-­‐
Re:rements
N
4,000
2,000
0
-2,000
Net in-mobility
New entrants
Retirements
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
-6,000
2012
-4,000
2011
Number of workers
6,000
Total change in labour force

78. Labour Market Rankings –
Northern Ontario
Trades and occupations
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bricklayers
4
5
5
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
Carpenters
4
5
5
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
Concrete finishers
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
3
Construction estimators
4
5
5
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
Construction managers
3
5
5
5
4
2
1
1
1
1
Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics
4
5
5
3
1
1
1
2
3
3
Contractors and supervisors
4
5
5
3
1
1
2
2
3
3
Crane operators
4
5
5
2
1
1
1
3
3
3
Electricians (including industrial and power
system)
4
5
5
2
1
1
1
3
3
3
Floor covering installers
3
4
4
4
4
3
2
2
2
3
Heavy equipment operators (except crane)
4
5
5
2
1
1
2
3
3
3
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics
4
5
5
3
1
1
2
3
3
3
Insulators
4
5
5
3
1
1
1
3
3
3

79. Labour Market Rankings –
Northern Ontario
Trades and occupations
Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators and
fitters
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
4
5
5
3
1
1
2
3
3
3
Painters and decorators
3
3
4
4
4
3
2
2
2
3
Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and
lathers
3
4
4
4
4
3
2
2
2
2
Plumbers
4
5
5
2
1
1
1
2
3
3
Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics
4
5
5
4
2
1
3
3
3
3
Residential and commercial installers and
servicers
3
4
4
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
Residential home builders and renovators
3
4
4
4
4
3
2
2
2
2
Roofers and shinglers
3
5
4
3
2
2
2
2
3
3
Sheet metal workers
4
5
5
2
1
1
1
3
3
3
Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system
installers
5
5
5
2
1
1
1
3
3
3
Trades helpers and labourers
4
5
5
4
3
1
2
2
2
2
Truck drivers
4
5
5
2
1
1
1
3
3
3
Welders and related machine operators
4
5
5
2
1
1
1
3
3
3

80. Labour Market Rankings and Mobility
§ Rankings in Ontario and other markets suggest the potential for
mobility across:
• sectors
• industries
• regions
By Sector
§ Weakness in residential markets suggest that some trades might
move to the non-residential sector.

81. Labour Market Rankings and Mobility
Potential for mobility by region
§ Utility, mining and other resource projects are planned for several
regions and could potentially draw key trades out of Ontario to (for
example):
• Newfoundland and Labrador: 2012–2014
• Saskatchewan: 2012–2013
• Manitoba: 2012–2015
• Alberta: 2012 and 2015–2018

82. Labour Market Hot Spots

83. Conclusions
§ The 2012 Construction Looking Forward scenario for Ontario
anticipates strong gains in both expansion and replacement
demands.
§ Construction labour markets in Ontario need to be assessed by
region and occupation.
§ Non-residential construction leads the recovery and expansion,
with employment gains concentrated in the GTA.
§ Requirements are shifting to large mining, utility and transportation
projects.
§ Labour markets tend to be tight and unemployment low due to
demographics. This requires some in-mobility in all regions to meet
construction requirements.
§ Industry attention and investment in training, promotion and
retention is essential.

84. Our Thanks To. . .
The production of Construction Looking Forward 2012−2020 would not have been
possible without the valuable input from the following organizations:
§
§
§
§
§
§
§
§
§
§
§
§
§
§
§
§
§
§
§
§
§
§
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Christian Labour Association of Canada
Construction Employers Coordinating Council of Ontario
Construction Labour Relations Association of Ontario
Council of Ontario Construction Associations
Electrical Power Systems Construction Association
General Presidents’ Maintenance Committee for Canada
Infrastructure Ontario
Labourers’ International Union of North America
Merit OpenShop Contractors Association of Ontario
Metrolinx
Ontario Construction Secretariat
Ontario Home Builders’ Association
Ontario Pipe Trades Council
Ontario Power Generation
Ontario Provincial Building Trades Council
Ontario Sheet Metal Contractors Association
Ontario Road Builders’ Association
Progressive Contractors Association of Canada
RESCON
Service Canada
Toronto Construction Association

85. About the CSC
The Construction Sector Council (CSC) is a national industry-led
organization committed to the development of a highly skilled
workforce that will support the future needs of Canada’s
construction industry.
This report is part of the CSC’s Labour Market Information Program.
It is available in both official languages and can be obtained
electronically at www.constructionforecasts.ca and www.csc-ca.org.
Timely construction forecast data is also available online at
www.constructionforecasts.ca. Create customized reports on a
broad range of selected categories within sector, trade or province
covering up to 10 years.

86. For more information contact:
Construction Sector Council
Phone: 613-569-5552
Fax: 613-569-1220
info@csc-ca.org
March 2012