The document provides an economic update for May discussing key indicators of the US economy. It analyzes employment trends, GDP growth, and stock market performance. Recent job growth has been steady since 2009. GDP growth was slow from 2009-2016 but has increased since 2017. The stock market has risen significantly under Trump after also gaining ground under Obama. Overall, the economy is doing well currently but forecasts suggest slower growth in the next couple years, with risks including trade wars and global economic slowdown.
13. Blue Chip Forecasts
top 50 business forecasters
as of April 10, 2019
• 2.3 percent GDP growth for 2019
• 1.9 percent GDP growth for 2020
• None of the 50 say 3 percent or more in 2019
or 2020 and 2 say 2 percent or lower in 2019
• 29 of the 50 say 1 to 2 percent in 2020
• 3 of the 50 say below 1 percent in 2020
15. 50 Top Business Forecasters
April Blue Chip US Forecasts in Pct.
RGDP NomGDP 10 yr UN Rate
2019 2.3 4.4 2.7 3.7
2020 1.9 4.1 2.8 3.7
16. Short Term Risks/Opportunities
• Fed tightening credit
crunch
• Geo-political or natural
shock
• Election year hesitation
• Trade war
• Global slowdown
• Business’ overly cautious
• Fed accommodative for
a longer term
• Trade agreements open
the door for increased
trade
• Breakthrough on
immigration policies
• Animal spirits kick in
17. Longer Term Risks/Opportunities
• Debt, deficits and
demographic headwinds
• Populists dominate
– Trade wars
– Nationalism thrives
– Global Growth stifled
• Climate change impacts
cause harm/dissension
• Socialist backlash
• Immigration reform
solves problems
– Debt
– Productivity
– Labor availability
• Trade tensions abate and
Globalization regains favor
• Entitlement reform
• Health care reform
• Maturation of 3rd world
countries spurs growth