Ce diaporama a bien été signalé.
Le téléchargement de votre SlideShare est en cours. ×

INDIA DURING COVID--SHUBHI.pdf

Publicité
Publicité
Publicité
Publicité
Publicité
Publicité
Publicité
Publicité
Publicité
Publicité
Publicité
Publicité
Chargement dans…3
×

Consultez-les par la suite

1 sur 43 Publicité

Plus De Contenu Connexe

Plus récents (20)

Publicité

INDIA DURING COVID--SHUBHI.pdf

  1. 1. e - v e r s i o n
  2. 2. INDIA DURING COVID-19 e - v e r s i o n
  3. 3. e - v e r s i o n
  4. 4. INDIA DURING COVID-19 Shubhi Agarwal Archna Singh ELIVA PRESS e - v e r s i o n
  5. 5. Published by Eliva Press Email: info@elivapress.com Website: www.elivapress.com ISBN: 978-1-63648-344-3 © Eliva Press, 2021 © Shubhi Agarwal, Archna Singh Cover Design: Eliva Press Cover Image: Freepik Premium Printed at: see last page No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from Eliva Press. Any brand and product names mentioned in this book are subject to the trademark, brand, or patent protection and are trademarks of their respective owners. The use of brand names, trade names, product names, product descriptions, is in no way implies that such names may be regarded as unrestricted by trademark and brand protection laws and thus may be used by anyone. All rights reserved. e - v e r s i o n
  6. 6. 7DEOHRIRQWHQWV 6HULDO1R 7LWOHRI5HVHDUFK3DSHU 3DJH1XPEHU 3UHYLRXV3XEOLVKHU 29,'DQG,WV,PSDFW RQWKH,QGLDQ(FRQRP ,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI7UDGH RPPHUFH,,$57-DQXDU -XQH9ROXPH1RSS ‹6*65 ZZZVJVUMRXUQDOVFRLQ 29,' DQG )RRG ,QVHFXULWLQ,QGLD %RRN WLWOHG 6RFLR(FRQRPLF ,PSDFWRI29,'RQ,QGLDQ (FRQRP E 1% 3XEOLFDWLRQV KDYLQJ ,6%1 1R LQWKHHDU $ 6WXG RI %HKDYLRUDO KDQJHV LQ RQVXPHUV GXULQJ29,'$DVH 6WXGRI'HOKL %RRN WLWOHG ,PSDFW RI 29,' RQ'LIIHUHQW6HFWRUVRI,QGLDQ (FRQRP E $FDGHPLF 3XEOLFDWLRQV KDYLQJ ,6%1 1R LQ WKH HDU e - v e r s i o n
  7. 7. e - v e r s i o n
  8. 8. ϯ 7LWOH29,'DQG,WV,PSDFWRQWKH,QGLDQ(FRQRP $%675$7 29,'LVDGLVHDVHFDXVHGEDQHZVWUDLQRIRURQDYLUXV2VWDQGVIRUFRURQD9,IRUWKHYLUXV DQG'IRUGLVHDVH7KLVUHVHDUFKSDSHUIRFXVHVRQWKHLPSDFWRIWKHRXWEUHDNRIWKHSDQGHPLF29,' RQWKH,QGLDQ(FRQRP29,'PDNHVDQDGYHUVHLPSDFWRQPDQVHFWRUVRIWKH,QGLDQ(FRQRP 7KLVSDSHUGHSLFWVWKHLPSDFWRI29,'RQGLIIHUHQWVHFWRUVRIWKH,QGLDQ(FRQRP7KLVSDSHUDOVR IXUQLVKHVWKHSROLFIUDPHZRUNRIJRYHUQPHQWLQWKLVUHJDUG7KLVSDSHUDOVRJLYHVOLJKWRQWKRVHVHFWRUV ZKLFKVHHDERRVWGXHWRWKHRXWEUHDNRIFRYLG .(:25'6RYLG,QGLDQ(FRQRP3DQGHPLF ,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI7UDGH RPPHUFH,,$57-DQXDU-XQH9ROXPH1RSS ‹6*65 ZZZVJVUMRXUQDOVFRLQ e - v e r s i o n
  9. 9. ϰ ,1752'87,21 The global economy is expected to shrink by over 3% in 2020 – the steepest slowdown since the Great Depression of the 1930s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««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e - v e r s i o n
  10. 10. ϱ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¶VVHFWRUVWKDWDUH EHDULQJWKHPD[LPXPEUXQWRIWKHSUHVHQWSDQGHPLFRYLG'XHWRWKHORFNGRZQHIIHFWWKHFORVLQJ RIVKRSSLQJPDOOVDQGFLQHPDWKHDWUHVKDVEDGODIIHFWHGWKHUHWDLOVHFWRUEUHGXFLQJWKHFRQVXPSWLRQ RIHVVHQWLDOVDQGHQWHUWDLQPHQWSXUSRVHVLWHPV7KHUHLVDGHFOLQHLQWKHOHYHORILQFRPHSDUWLFXODUOGDLO ZDJHHDUQHUVGXHWRVORZHFRQRPLFDFWLYLWLHVLQPDQVHFWRUVOLNHUHWDLOVFRQVWUXFWLRQWUDQVSRUWDQG HQWHUWDLQPHQWHWFWKDWXOWLPDWHOOHDGVWRDIDOOLQWKHFRQVXPSWLRQIURQW7KHUHLVDSRVWSRQHPHQWRI EXLQJGHFLVLRQVEFRQVXPHUVGXHWRZLGHVSUHDGIHDUDQGSDQLF7KHWUDQVSRUWDWLRQVHFWRULVDIIHFWHG VHYHUHO GXHWRWKHORFNGRZQHIIHFWZKLFK FDXVHVDUHVWULFWLRQLQWUDYHOLQJ DVDOO VFKRROVFROOHJHV XQLYHUVLWLHVDQGSULYDWHILUPVDUHRSWLQJZRUNIURPKRPHFXOWXUHDSSURDFK+RWHOVDQGUHVWDXUDQWVDUH VHHQDVPDMRUVXIIHUHUVDVWKHUHLVWKHFDQFHOODWLRQRIOHLVXUHWULSVEXVLQHVVWULSVFRQIHUHQFHVVHPLQDUV ZRUNVKRSVLQWHUQVKLSVHWF )LQDQFLDO0DUNHW)LQDQFLDOPDUNHWLVVHHQDVH[WUHPHOYRODWLOHWKDWOHDGVWRKXJHZHDOWKHURVLRQKXJH FUDVKHVGXHWRXQFHUWDLQFRQGLWLRQVUHJDUGLQJIXWXUHSUHGLFWLRQDQGUHVXOWVRIRYLG7KHFUDVKRIWKH VWRFNPDUNHWLVUHVSRQVLEOHIRUGHFOLQLQJFRQVXPSWLRQOHYHOV0DUFKZDVWKHEODFNGDDVWKHUH ZHUHPDMRUVOLGHVLQGRPHVWLFHTXLWPDUNHWV%RWK%6(DQG16(VOLSSHGPRUHWKDQLQDVLQJOHGD 7KHUHZDVDSRLQWVGURSLQWKH%6(6HQVH[DQGSRLQWVIDOOLQ16(1LIW7KLVGURSKDVUHJXODUO WDNHQSODFHWRGDWHDVVWRFNLQYHVWRUVUHVRUWHGWRFRQWLQXRXVVHOOLQJDPLGLQFUHDVLQJFDVHVRIRYLG ,QGLDQVWRFNPDUNHWVDJDLQMXPSHGWRDQHZORZOHYHORQ0DUFK%6(6HQVH[FORVHGSRLQWV ORZDWDQG16(1LIWFORVHGSRLQWVORZHUDW9RODWLOLWDQGZHDOWKHURVLRQRILQYHVWRUV DUHH[SHFWHGLQHTXLWPDUNHWVGXULQJRYLG ,PSDFWRQ6XSSO)URQW,I,IRFXVRQWKHVXSSOIURQWGHODLQWKHVXSSOFKDLQRIJRRGVIURPKLQD GXHWRVKXWGRZQRIIDFWRULHVKDVDGYHUVHODIIHFWHGPDQ,QGLDQPDQXIDFWXULQJVHFWRUVZKLFKGHSHQGRQ KLQDIRUWKHLUUDZPDWHULDODQGILQDOSURGXFWV7KHSUREOHPRIVKRUWDJHRIUDZPDWHULDOLVIDFHGEVRPH e - v e r s i o n
  11. 11. ϲ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hemical Sectors 0LOOLRQ'ROODUV Textiles and Apparel 0LOOLRQ'ROODUV Automobile Sector 0LOOLRQ'ROODUV Metals and Metal Goods 0LOOLRQ'ROODUV Wood Products and Furniture 0LOOLRQ'ROODUV Electrical Machinery 0LOOLRQ'ROODUV Leather Goods 0LOOLRQ'ROODUV 6285(),,5(3257 0DUFK /HW¶VKDYHDSRVLWLYHORRNDW29,'RQVRPHVHFWRUVRIDQHFRQRP@ 'LJLWDODQG,QWHUQHWHFRQRPIRUPVDQHZSODWIRUPWKDWLVSODLQJNHUROHHYHUZKHUHZKLFKDUH GHVFULEHGEHORZ 2QOLQH(GXFDWLRQ DQGRQOLQHVNLOOVZHELQDUV FRQIHUHQFHVWUDLQLQJSURJUDPV HWF 2QOLQHJURFHULHVHVVHQWLDOJRRGV6XGGHQLQFUHDVHLQGLJLWDOFRQWHQWOLNH337V3')VDXGLRDQGYLGHR OHFWXUHVHWF )DVW0RYLQJRQVXPHU*RRGVDQG5HWDLOVHFWRUZLOOERRVWXSLPPHQVHO e - v e r s i o n
  12. 12. ϳ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ork from home culture will be the new normal. Many corporations have realized that employees working from home are equally efficient and productive as compared to when they were working from the coming to their departments. I suppose it will reduce infrastructural costs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«'DWDDQG e - v e r s i o n
  13. 13. ϴ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¶ ZRUOG PDUNHW LV GRPLQDWHGDQGFRQWUROOHGEULJKWZLQJSROLWLFLDQVZKRIRFXVHGRQ0DNH/RFDORQVXPH/RFDO,Q WKHSRVW29,'HUDFXUWDLOPHQWDQGUHGXFWLRQRIWUDGHUHVWULFWLRQVDQGIUHHPDUNHWVFDQEHVHHQDQG H[SHFWHGWREORRP 7KHVXFFHVVPDQWUDLQWKLV29,'SHULRGLV³RXQHHGWROLYHWREHLQWKHJDPH´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e - v e r s i o n
  14. 14. ϵ 7KHHFRQRPLFJURZWKRI,QGLDKDVEHHQUHGXFHGEFitch RatingsIURPSURMHFWHGHDUOLHUWR IRU,WGLGVREHFDXVHLWSUHGLFWVORZGRPHVWLFGHPDQGDQGVXSSOFKDLQGLVWXUEDQFHVEHFDXVH RIRYLGZKLFKEDGOPDNHVDQLPSDFWRQPDQXIDFWXULQJLQGXVWULHV@ 7KHHFRQRPLFJURZWKRI,QGLDKDVDOVREHHQORZHUHGEStandard and PoorsIURPSURMHFWHGHDUOLHU WRIRU@ OECDKDVUHYLVLWHGDQGUHYLVHGGRZQIRUHFDVWRIHFRQRPLFJURZWKRI,QGLDWRIRUDQG IRU2('KDVDOVRJLYHQDZDUQLQJDERXWJOREDOJURZWKLQFRXOGFRPHGRZQE EDVLVSRLQWVDVFRPSDUHGWRZKDWZDVSURMHFWHGLQ1RYHPEHUODVWHDU@ 7KHHFRQRPLFJURZWKRI,QGLDKDVDOVREHHQGURSSHGEMoodyIURPHVWLPDWHGHDUOLHULQ)HEUXDU WRIRU@ ,QGLDQHFRQRPFDQEHDUDKXJHFRVWGXHWRWKHRXWEUHDNRIRYLGZKLFKUDQJHVEHWZHHQ86 PLOOLRQDQG86ELOOLRQLQORZHUFRQVXPSWLRQGHPDQGSUHGLFWHGEthe Asian Development Bank @ 29,'$1'*/2%$/*52:7+ 7KHJOREDOHFRQRPLVJURZLQJDWSHUFHQWLQWKHHDUZKLFKGHSLFWVDIDUZRUVHVLWXDWLRQLI FRPSDUHGWRWKHJOREDOILQDQFLDOFULVLVRIDVSHUWKH,0)5HSRUW0DQWRSPRVWFRXQWULHVDUH H[SHFWHGWRVKULQNEWKHIROORZLQJSHUFHQWLQWKHHDU@ 7$%/(±6ORZGRZQWKHSHUFHQWRIWRSPRVWFRXQWULHVGXULQJ29,' ITLAY SPAIN FRANCE GERMANY UK US JAPAN 6285(KWWSVLQGLDQH[SUHVVFRPDUWLFOHH[SODLQHGH[SODLQHGKRZKDVFRYLGDIIHFWHGWKHJOREDOHFRQRP 'HYHORSHGFRXQWULHVKDYHEHHQDIIHFWHGEDGODQGWKHDUHVHHPHGWRJURZELQRQWKHRQH KDQGDQGWKHRWKHUKDQGGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVDUHVHHPHGWRVKULQNE7KHJURZWKUDWHVWRUZLOO EHFRPHZRUVHLIKLQDLVH[FOXGHGIURPWKLVOLVWRIFRXQWULHVEHFDXVHWKHJURZWKUDWHLVVHHPHGWREH LQWKLVHDURI*'3ILJXUHVRIKLQDUHGXFHGELQWKHILUVWTXDUWHURIRQWKH FRQWUDURXWSXWLQ6RXWK.RUHDGURSSHGEHYHQWKRXJKWKHFRXQWUGLGQRWIROORZORFNGRZQEXW SUDFWLFHGWKHPHWKRGRORJRIDJJUHVVLYHWHVWLQJTXDUDQWLQLQJDQGFRQWDFWWUDFLQJ,IZHDUHWDONLQJDQG IRFXVLQJRQ(XURSHWKHILJXUHVRI*'3LQ)UDQFH6SDLQDQG,WDOGURSSHGEDQG e - v e r s i o n
  15. 15. ϭϬ 1((')255(/(9$1732/,,(6217+(*29(510(17)5217 There is an urgent need to form a combination of monetary, fiscal, and financial markets measures to help businesses and the common public cope with this spread of virus and crisis environment. For framing appropriate action plans and policies, it is significant to know the specific issues that businesses and the public, in general, are facing recently. At this juncture, it is necessary to provide support to Indian industries and the economy by the Indian Government and RBI. These are as follows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¶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e - v e r s i o n
  16. 16. ϭϭ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e - v e r s i o n
  17. 17. ϭϮ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« ,WKLQNWKHPRVWVLJQLILFDQWSRLQWLVWKDWZHPXVWHQVXUHDQGPDNHWKHEHVWRIRXUHIIRUWVWKDWWKLVEODFN SKDVHRIOLIHVKRXOGQHYHUKDSSHQZLWKDOORIXVDJDLQ,DPVXUHWKDWKXPDQNLQGKDVQHYHUWDNHQOHVVRQV DQGZLVGRPIURPKLVWRU/HW VKRSHIRUDEHWWHUKHDOWKVDIHVXFFHVVIXODQGRIFRXUVHVXVWDLQDEOH IXWXUHDKHDG 5()(5(1(6 e - v e r s i o n
  18. 18. ϭϯ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e - v e r s i o n
  19. 19. ϭϰ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e - v e r s i o n
  20. 20. ϭϱ ,1752'87,21 The pandemic named Coronavirus-19 will leave many Indian lives hungry and undernourished. Undernourished people with weak immune systems and those co-morbidities are strongly linked to adverse COVID-19 outcomes. 7KHRXWEUHDNRISDQGHPLF29,'DVZHOODVWKHJOREDOHFRQRPLFVORZGRZQKDYHHYLGHQFHGWKDWWKH JOREDOHFRQRPLVQRWSUHSDUHGWRPDQDJHIRRGVHFXULW,WZDVSURMHFWHGEWKH81UHFHQWUHSRUWRQ ³7KH6WDWHRI)RRG6HFXULWDQG1XWULWLRQLQWKH:RUOG´WKDWWKH6XVWDLQDEOH'HYHORSPHQW *RDORI]HURKXQJHUZLOOQRWEHDWWDLQHGE'XHWRWKHORRPLQJRIWKHIRRGLQVHFXULWSUREOHP ,QGLD¶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¶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¶V (FRQRP 0,( :RUOG%DQNE VKRZHGWKDWWKHXQHPSORPHQWUDWHZDVHDUVKLJKLQ ,QGLDQ (FRQRP ZDV EHLQJ FULSSOHG E WKLV 29,' SDQGHPLF DV ZHOO DV DQ HFRQRPLF VORZGRZQIRUWKHODVWWZRWKUHHHDUVDIWHUGHPRQHWL]DWLRQDQGLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRI*67 e - v e r s i o n
  21. 21. ϭϲ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rabiKDUYHVWVZLWKWKHFORVLQJRI haatsDQGmandisZKLFKFUHDWHGSUREOHPVLQWKHVXSSOFKDLQVRI DJULFXOWXUHRXWSXWV)HPDOHODERUHUVZHUHUHGXFHGGXHWRWKHLQFUHDVHGSUHVHQFHRIPDOHODERUHUV7KRVH IHPDOH ODERUHUV ZKR ZHUH HQJDJHG LQ 0*15(*$ 0DKDWPD *DQGKL 1DWLRQDO 5XUDO (PSORPHQW *XDUDQWHH$FW ZHUHXQHPSORHGDIWHUWKHPLJUDWLRQRIPDOHODERUHUVIURPWKHXUEDQVHFWRUGXHWRWKH 29,'ORFNGRZQHIIHFW/HVVWKDQSHUFHQWRIPLJUDQWODERUHUVGLGQ¶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e - v e r s i o n
  22. 22. ϭϳ PRUHSHRSOHZHUHOLYLQJXQGHUIRRGLQVHFXULWLQZKHQFRPSDUHGWRWKHHDU7KHPRVW DXWKRULWDWLYHHVWLPDWLRQUHJDUGLQJIRRGLQVHFXULWDQGKXQJHUZDVSUHVHQWHGE62),5HSRUW7KHUHDUH WZRPDLQLQGLFDWRUVIRUPHDVXULQJIRRGLQVHFXULWZKLFKZHUHJLYHQE62),VLQFH7KHVHZHUH WUDGLWLRQDOPHDVXUHPHQWFDOOHGWKH3UHYDOHQFHRI8QGHUQRXULVKPHQWDQGDUHFHQWPHDVXUHPHQWFDOOHGWKH 3UHYDOHQFHRI0RGHUDWHDQG6HYHUH)RRG,QVHFXULW 306), %RWKRIWKHPDUHDFFHSWHGZRUOGZLGHO DVWKHPHDVXUHPHQWLQGLFDWRUVRISURJUHVVUHJDUGLQJ6XVWDLQDEOH'HYHORSPHQW*RDOV 6'* 22 percent of the global burden of food insecurity was borne by India which is highest at the global level in 2017- 19. The shameful and saddest part is that the PMSFI rose by 3.7 percent in India though it declined in the rest of South Asia by 0.5 percent during 2017-19. According to the estimates, 27.8 percent of India’s population suffered from moderate and severe food insecurity during 2014-16 and its proportion increased to 31.6 percent during 2017-19. The number of people who are food insecure got increased from 42.65 crores to 48.86 crores in 2014-16 and 2017-19 respectively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e - v e r s i o n
  23. 23. ϭϴ 3DNLVWDQ 0DQPDU %DQJODGHVK 1HSDO 6UL/DQND 6285(*OREDO+XQJHU5HSRUW,)35, ,QGLDLVLQWKH³YHUKLJK´JURXSDWSHUFHQWDPRQJQDWLRQVZKHUHSXEOLFKHDOWKLPSRUWDQFHRI FKLOGZDVWLQJUDWHLVFRQVLGHUHGDV³KLJK´RU³YHUKLJK´,QGLDIDOOVLQWKH³VHULRXV´JURXSLQWKHOHYHOV RIKXQJHUZLWKD*+,VFRUHRI1DWLRQVVXFKDV1RUWK.RUHD5ZDQGD1LJHULD$IJKDQLVWDQDQG 6LHUUD/HRQHDUHZRUVHWKDQWKDWRI,QGLD2QWKHSRVLWLYHIURQW,QGLDKDVVKRZQDOLWWOHLPSURYHPHQWLQ LWVUDQNLQJVLQFHODVWHDU6RXWK$VLDDQG$IULFD6RXWKRI6DKDUDKDYHWKHZRUVWKXQJHUVLWXDWLRQVDPRQJ JOREDOUHJLRQV e - v e r s i o n
  24. 24. ϭϵ 7KHUHLVDUHGXFWLRQLQXQGHUHDUVRIPRUWDOLWLQ,QGLD,WGRHVQRWGHSLFWWKHUHGXFWLRQRIDSUREOHP LQ,QGLD,QGLDH[SHULHQFHGDGHFOLQHLQXQGHUILYHPRUWDOLWDVSHUWKHJUDSKGHSLFWHGWKDWZDVGULYHQ ODUJHOEIDOOLQGHDWKVIURPELUWKDVSK[LDRUWUDXPDQHRQDWDOLQIHFWLRQVSQHXPRQLDDQGGLDUUKHD 7KRXJKFKLOGPRUWDOLWFDXVHGESUHPDWXULWDQGORZELUWKZHLJKWLQFUHDVHGHVSHFLDOOLQSRRUHU VWDWHVDQGUXUDODUHDV3UHYHQWLRQRISUHPDWXULWDQGORZELUWKZHLJKWDUHFODVVLILHGDVDPDLQFDXVH ZLWKWKHSRWHQWLDOWRUHGXFHXQGHUILYHPRUWDOLWLQ,QGLDWKURXJKWKHSROLFDFWLRQSODQVVXFKDV EHWWHUDQWHQDWDOFDUHHGXFDWLRQDQGQXWULWLRQDVZHOODVUHGXFWLRQVLQDQHPLDDQGRUDOWREDFFRXVH ,)35,6RXWK$VLD HOXFLGDWHGWKDWSHUFHQWRIWKHKRXVHKROGVLQWKHLUVXUYHZHUHFODVVLILHGDV IRRGVHFXUHGXVLQJWKH+RXVHKROG)RRG,QVHFXULW$FFHVV6FDOH7KHUHVWRIWKHPLHSHUFHQWZHUH IDFLQJVHYHUHIRRGLQVHFXULW7KH:RUOG)RRG3URJUDPPHKDVJLYHQDZDUQLQJWRWKHZRUOGZLGHOHYHO DERXWWKHVHFRQGSDQGHPLFZKLFKZLOOEHFDXVHGEKXQJHU7KLVZDUQLQJFRXOGEHWUXHIRUWKH,QGLDQ (FRQRP7KHDIIRUGDELOLWRIQXWULWLRXVIRRGLVTXLWHWRXJKVRLWLVWKHUHDVRQIRUWKHSRRULQWDNHRI GLHWV,WZDVIRXQGWKDWWKHLQWDNHRIDQXWULWLRXVGLHWLVYHUFRVWOIURPWR,WFRVWVDERXW SHUFHQWIRUPDOHVDQGSHUFHQWIRUDIHPDOHGDLOXQVNLOOHGODERUHU)RRGDQGQXWULWLRQVHFXULWERWK DUHULVLQJUDSLGOEHFDXVHRIWKHLQFUHDVLQJSULFHVRIIRRGDUWLFOHVGXHWRWKHRXWEUHDNRI29,'7KH IRRGFULVLVKDVEHFRPHVHYHUHGXHWRUHGXFHGIRRGVXSSODWZKROHVDOHPDUNHWVVKRUWDJHRIODERUHUV HVSHFLDOOPLJUDQWZRUNHUVWUDQVSRUWFRVWDQGLQFUHDVHGUHVWULFWLRQVLPSRVHGLQDORFNGRZQVLWXDWLRQ )RRGDUWLFOHVZKRVHQXWULWLRQDOYDOXHLVKLJKOLNHYHJHWDEOHVIUXLWVDQGPLONZHUHDIIHFWHGEDGODVWKH DUHEDVHGRQIXQFWLRQDOVXSSOFKDLQVEHFDXVHRIWKHLUSHULVKDEOHQDWXUH3ULFHVRIVWDSOHV ULFHZKHDW e - v e r s i o n
  25. 25. ϮϬ PDL]HPLOOHWDQGVRUJKXP DQGOHQWLOV JUHHQPRRQJXUDGGDOPDVRRUGDOWRRUORELDDQGPDWDUGDO HWF ZHUHDOVRLQFUHDVLQJUDSLGO:LWKWKHFRPLQJRIWKLVSDQGHPLFWKHRYHUDOOEXGJHWIRUDQXWULWLRXV GLHWNHHSVRQULVLQJDQGLWLVH[SHFWHGWREHOHVVDIIRUGDEOHWRWKHYXOQHUDEOHVHFWLRQVRIVRFLHW 5D VWDWHVWKDW29,'DQGKXQJHUFUHDWHGKDUPWRWKHSHRSOHZKLFKOHDG,QGLDWRDYXOQHUDEOH SRVLWLRQ$VSHUWKHHVWLPDWLRQVHFRQRPLFGDPDJHVFDXVHGEWKLVSDQGHPLFDUHOLNHOWREHVHYHUHZLWK DQHJDWLYHJURZWKUDWHRI*'3 $EL+DELEHWDO VKRZVWKDWWKHULVNRIGHDWKIURPFRPPRQGLVHDVHVOLNHPDODULDGLDUUKRHDDQG SQHXPRQLDLVH[SHFWHGWREHERUQHEXQGHUQRXULVKHGFKLOGUHQ,QGLDFDQEHFRPHWKHODQGRIGHDWK EHFDXVHRIKXQJHUZKLFKLVDJDLQDJJUDYDWHGGXHWRWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIORFNGRZQ +XQJHU5HSRUW GHSLFWVWKDWWKHJOREDOKXQJHUUDWHKDVEHHQRQWKHLQFUHDVLQJWUHQGVLQFH DQGLWLVIDLUOFOHDUWKDWFKDQJHLQWKHFOLPDWHLVWKHPDMRUUHDVRQ7KLVSDQGHPLFKDVFUHDWHGKHDOWKULVNV WRWKRVHZKREHORQJLQWKHKDYHQRW VFDWHJRUGXHWRPDOQXWULWLRQDQGKXQJHU$EDODQFHGGLHWLVDEDVLF UHTXLUHPHQWWRPDQDJHWKHQHJDWLYHLPSDFWRI29,'DVWKHUHLVQRYDFFLQDWLRQHWDQGRQOJRRG LPPXQLWFDQVHUYHWKHYHUSXUSRVHZKLFKFDQWEHDWWDLQHGZLWKRXWKDYLQJDQXWULWLRXVGLHW *HWWOHPDQDQG5DM GHSLFWVWKDWKDYHQRWVOLNHVWUHHWYHQGRUVVPDOOEXVLQHVVHVPLJUDQWZRUNHUV DQGGDLOZDJHODERUHUVZHUHWKHZRUVWDIIHFWHGSHRSOHGXHWRWKHHQIRUFHPHQWRIORFNGRZQWKDWFUHDWHG MREORVV/RVVRIMREXOWLPDWHOOHGWRQRLQFRPHRUORZHULQFRPHUHGXFWLRQLQWKHVXSSORIPHUFKDQGLVH ,WZLOOEDGODIIHFWWKHVPRRWKVXSSORIIRRGDUWLFOHVZKLFKEURXJKWIRRGLQVHFXULW *OREDO 1XWULWLRQ 5HSRUW IXUQLVKHV WKDW WKHUH LV D QHHG WR EXLOG HTXLWDEOH UHVLOLHQW DQG VXVWDLQDEOHIRRGVVWHPVDQGLQYHVWPHQWLQQXWULWLRQLQWKHDUHDVZKLFKDUHZRUVWDIIHFWHG :RUOG%DQN D HOXFLGDWHGWKDWUDQNLQJRI,QGLDLQ*OREDO+XQJHU,QGH[VHHPVYHUEDG ZKHQFRPSDUHGWR3DNLVWDQ%DQJODGHVKDQG1HSDO7KRXJKSHUFDSLWD*'3RI,QGLDLVGRXEOHIURP HDFKFRXQWULQWHUPVRISXUFKDVLQJSRZHUSDULW ,QGLD*'3*URZWK5DWH e - v e r s i o n
  26. 26. Ϯϭ )RRGDQG$JULFXOWXUH2UJDQLVDWLRQ VWDWHVWKHIRXUPDMRUSLOODUVRIIRRGVHFXULW7KHVHDUH DYDLODELOLW DFFHVV VWDELOLW DQG XWLOL]DWLRQ 7KH JRYHUQPHQW LV FRPPLWWHG WR PDLQWDLQLQJ WKH DYDLODELOLW DQG DFFHVVLELOLW RI IRRG DUWLFOHV EXW VWDELOLW DQG XWLOL]DWLRQ QHHG WKH DWWHQWLRQ RI WKH JRYHUQPHQW¶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e - v e r s i o n
  27. 27. ϮϮ $URXQGPLOOLRQSRRUIDPLOLHVZHUHJLYHQIUHHFRRNLQJJDV 3URYLVLRQRIJURFHUNLWVKDYLQJULFHSXOVHVRLOVSLFHVDQGYHJHWDEOHV +RPHGHOLYHURIVFKRROPHDOVDQGRWKHUQXWULWLRQDOUHODWHGSURJUDPV 16(,QGLD :HVW%HQJDOKDVH[WHQGHGWKHSURYLVLRQRIIUHHUDWLRQXQWLO-XQH7KHVFKHPHRI³2QH1DWLRQ 2QH5DWLRQDUG´ XQGHUWKH1DWLRQDO)RRG6HFXULW$FWSURYLGHVIRRGJUDLQVWKDWFDQEHQHILW WKH PLJUDQWODERUHUVSDUWLFXODUOWRWKRVHZKRGRQ¶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e - v e r s i o n
  28. 28. Ϯϯ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¶V ODERUHUV FRURQDYLUXV ORFNGRZQ LV DQ RUGHU WR VWDUYH 7KH 1HZ RUN 7LPHV KWWSVZZZ QWLPHVFRPZRUOGDVLDFRURQDYLUXVLQGLDORFNGRZQKWPO *HWWOHPDQ-DQG5DM6 3RZHUHGEIHDU,QGLDQVHPEUDFHFRURQDYLUXVORFNGRZQ7KH1HZ RUN7LPHVKWWSVZZZQWLPHVFRPZRUOGDVLDLQGLDFRURQDYLUXVORFNGRZQKWPO e - v e r s i o n
  29. 29. Ϯϰ 5D $ 0D ,QGLD¶V *'3 JURZWK LQ WR UHPDLQ LQ QHJDWLYH WHUULWRU 5%, /LYHPLQW KWWSVZZZOLYHPLQWFRPLQGXVWUEDQNLQJLQGLDVJGSJURZWKLQWRUHPDLQLQ QHJDWLYHFDWHJRUUELKWPO 5RVHQ]ZHLJ 0 5 DQG 6FKXOW] 7 3 0DUNHW RSSRUWXQLWLHV JHQHWLF HQGRZPHQWV DQG LQWUDIDPLOUHVRXUFHGLVWULEXWLRQKLOGVXUYLYDOLQUXUDO,QGLD7KH$PHULFDQ(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ ±-6725 6WUDXVV - DQG 7KRPDV ' +HDOWK QXWULWLRQ DQG HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW -RXUQDO RI (FRQRPLF/LWHUDWXUH ±-6725 6XEUDPDQLDQ6DQG'HDWRQ$ 7KHGHPDQGIRUIRRGDQGFDORULHV-RXUQDORI3ROLWLFDO (FRQRP ± :)3 7KHVWDWHRIIRRGVHFXULWDQGQXWULWLRQLQWKHZRUOG 62), 6DIHJXDUGLQJDJDLQVW HFRQRPLFVORZGRZQVDQGGRZQWXUQVKWWSVZZZZISRUJSXEOLFDWLRQVVWDWHIRRGVHFXULW DQGQXWULWLRQZRUOGVRILVDIHJXDUGLQJDJDLQVWHFRQRPLF :RUOG %DQN D *'3 SHU FDSLWD FRQVWDQW 86 :RUOG %DQN *URXS KWWSVGDWDZRUOGEDQNRUJLQGLFDWRU1*'33$3.' :RUOG %DQN E 8QHPSORPHQW WRWDO RI WKH WRWDO ODERU IRUFH QDWLRQDO HVWLPDWH ² ,QGLDKWWSVGDWDZRUOGEDQNRUJLQGLFDWRU6/8(0727/1(=6ORFDWLRQV ,1 KWWSVWKHZLUHLQULJKWVLQGLDUDQNVDPRQJFRXQWULHVLQJOREDOKXQJHULQGH[ e - v e r s i o n
  30. 30. Ϯϱ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e - v e r s i o n
  31. 31. Ϯϲ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e - v e r s i o n
  32. 32. Ϯϳ SUHYDLOVDWWKLVSDQGHPLFWLPH'HPDQGVLPSOLILFDWLRQEHFDXVHRIOLPLWHGRIIHUVDQGGLVFRXQWVGXULQJ SDQGHPLF ZKLFK OHDGV WR EHLQJ IROORZHG LQ WKH SRVWSDQGHPLF SHULRG ZKHUH LQGLYLGXDOV SUHIHU WR SXUFKDVHVLPSOHRIIHULQJVZLWKPD[LPXPYDOXH7KHXSSHUVHFWLRQVSRVHGDNLQGRIGLVFRPIRUWDQG GLVDJUHHPHQWZKHQWKHFRQVXPHH[FHVVLYHDPRXQWV5LFKHUVHFWLRQVDOVRFRQFHQWUDWHRQUHFFOLQJDQG HQYLURQPHQWIULHQGOSURGXFWV5LFKFODVVHVSURYLGHWUDGLWLRQDODQGVLPSOHYDOXHVDQGWHDFKLQJVWRWKHLU FKLOGUHQ )ODWWHUVDQG:LOOPRWW 7KHUHLVDFULWLFDOLPSDFWRIWKHHFRQRPLFVORZGRZQRQWKH EHKDYLRUDO DWWLWXGH RI FRQVXPHUV 7KH PDLQ WUHQGV IROORZHG E WKH SXEOLF LQ JHQHUDO LQFOXGH VLPSOLILFDWLRQRIGHPDQGSDWWHUQVYDOXHEDVHGJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHVWKDWDUHQHFHVVDUIRUVXUYLYDOLQWKLV SDQGHPLF 2%-(7,9(2)7+(678' 7RUHIOHFWWKHEHKDYLRUDOFKDQJHLQFRQVXPHUVGXULQJDSDQGHPLF 7RGHSLFWWKHXQHPSORPHQWVLWXDWLRQDQGIRRGLQVHFXULWLVVXHV 5(6($5+0(7+2'2/2* 7KLVSDUWRIWKHUHVHDUFKSDSHUGHSLFWVWKHUHVHDUFKPHWKRGRORJXVHGLQWKLVVWXG7KLVVWXGFRQVLGHUV 'HFHPEHU WR $XJXVW DV LWV VWXG SHULRG 7KLV VWXG XVHV SULPDU GDWD IRU PHDVXULQJ D EHKDYLRUDOFKDQJHRIFRQVXPHUVGXULQJWKH29,'SDQGHPLF7KLVVWXGDOVRXVHVVHFRQGDUGDWD $QH[SORUDWRUUHVHDUFKGHVLJQLVXVHGLQWKLVVWXG7KHWDUJHWHGSRSXODWLRQFRQVLVWVRIDFDGHPLFLDQV UHVHDUFKVFKRODUVVWXGHQWVDQGKRXVHZLYHVRI'HOKL$QRQOLQHVXUYHZLWKWKHKHOSRIDTXHVWLRQQDLUH LVXVHGLQWKLVVWXG7KHTXHVWLRQQDLUHZDVJHQHUDWHGWKURXJK*RRJOHIRUPVWRFROOHFWGDWDZKLFKZDV FRQGXFWHGEHWZHHQWR2XWRIUHVSRQGHQWVUHVSRQGHQWVKDYHUHVSRQGHG WRWKHRQOLQHTXHVWLRQQDLUH 0$5.(7'1$0,6'85,1*7+,63$1'(0,29,' 29,'PDNHVDQDIILUPDWLYHLPSDFWRQWKHEHKDYLRUDODWWLWXGHRIWKHFRPPRQSXEOLFHVSHFLDOO WRZDUGVWKHLUKJLHQHKDELWVHYHQWKRXJK29,'LVRXWRIFRQWUROLQ,QGLD0DQKLGGHQFKDOOHQJHV ZLOOEHWKURZQEWKH29,'SDQGHPLFWRHYHUFRXQWUZRUOGZLGHDQGRIFRXUVH,QGLDZKLFKLV H[SRVHGWRDQLQFUHDVHLQ29,'FDVHVH[SRQHQWLDOO$OOSROLFGLVFXVVLRQVVKRXOGEHVXUURXQGHG e - v e r s i o n
  33. 33. Ϯϴ ZKLFK IRFXV RQ FRQWUROOLQJ WKLV SDQGHPLF HFRQRPLF FULVLV XQHPSORPHQW IRRG LQVHFXULW DQG VWLPXODWLRQRIHFRQRPLFJURZWKKDQJHVLQEHKDYLRUDODWWLWXGHDUHWKHSULPHIDFWRUDVZHDOOKDYHWR OLYHLQWKLV³QHZQRUPDO´IRUXSWRRQHRUPRUHHDUV7KLVSDQGHPLFKDVGLVUXSWHGVHYHUHOWKHGDWR GDWUDQVDFWLRQVRIGDLOURXWLQH $QRQOLQHVXUYHFRQGXFWHGLQ'HOKLRIUHVSRQGHQWVVKRZHGWKDW 'RRXZDVKKDQGV ,VWKHUHDQGHFOLQHLQWKHFHOHEUDWLRQRIELUWKGDSDUWLHVDQGDQQLYHUVDULHVRXWVLGHGXULQJ RYLG RYLGFDVHVLQ,QGLDDUHLQFUHDVLQJDW e - v e r s i o n
  34. 34. Ϯϵ 'R RX WDNH ZDUP ZDWHU RU ZDUP OLTXLG WR PDLQWDLQ VPRRWKQHVV LQ WKH WKURDW ,V WKHUH DQ FKDQJH LQ WKH VKRSSLQJ SDWWHUQ GXULQJ RYLG 'RRXZHDUWKHPDVN 'RRXWKLQNWKHJRYHUQPHQWLVUHVSRQVLEOHIRULQFUHDVLQJFDVHVRIRYLGGXHWRLPSURSHU SODQQLQJ e - v e r s i o n
  35. 35. ϯϬ 'RRXFRQVXPHRXWVLGHYHQGRUIRRG 3HRSOHDUHGLQJLQWKLVHDUGXHWR 'R RX IROORZ VRFLDO GLVWDQFLQJ ZKLOH JRLQJ RXWVLGH 'RRXXVHVDQLWL]HUVZKLOHJRLQJRXWVLGH e - v e r s i o n
  36. 36. ϯϭ 'RRXWKLQNWKHµ'(/+,02'(/¶VKRXOGEHXVHGERWKHUVWDWHVWRWDFNOHWKLVSDQGHPLF RYLG RXOGLWEHSRVVLEOHWKDWWKHHFRQRPLFFULVLVZLOOLQFUHDVHZLWKDQLQFUHDVHLQWKHFDVHVRIRYLG $UHRXVDWLVILHGZLWKWKHUHOLHISDFNDJHSURYLGHGEWKHFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQWGXULQJRYLG e - v e r s i o n
  37. 37. ϯϮ ,QFUHDVHLQSDQLFEXLQJLVGXHWR ,VWKHUHDQFKDQJHLQWKHFRQVXPSWLRQSDWWHUQRIWKHSXEOLFIURPQRUPDOJRRGVWRVDQLWDWLRQ DQGKJLHQHUHODWHGSURGXFWV 7KHUH LV DQ LQFUHDVH LQ WKH GHPDQG IRU HOHFWULFDO JDGJHWV GXULQJ RYLG $VSHUWKHGDWDFROOHFWHGWKURXJKWKHRQOLQHTXHVWLRQQDLUHDSDUWRIWKHFKDQJHLQEHKDYLRUDODWWLWXGHLV FHUWDLQDQGLWZLOOOHDGWRVWUXFWXUDOFKDQJHVLQWKHZDZHOLYHZRUNDQGSXUFKDVHVSHQGLQJFKRLFHV e - v e r s i o n
  38. 38. ϯϯ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¶W SXWWKHZKROHEODPHRQDXWKRULWLHVXQWLOZHDUHJHQXLQHOIROORZLQJDOOUXOHVSUHVFULEHG e - v e r s i o n
  39. 39. ϯϰ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¶WKDYH-DQ'KDQDFFRXQWVOLNHGDLO IRRWSDWKYHQGRUVSDNRUDZDOODHWF:KDWDERXWWKRVHLQGLYLGXDOVZKRDUHSXWWLQJLQEDFNZDUGDUHDVDQG UHPRWHUHJLRQVWKDWGRQ¶WKDYHDQEDQNLQJIDFLOLWLHV6PDOOEXVLQHVVHVFDQ¶WEHVDYHGIURPWKLVSDFNDJH DVWKHPLJKWVKXWGRZQWKHLUEXVLQHVVHVEHFDXVHWKHFDQ¶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e - v e r s i o n
  40. 40. ϯϱ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¶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e - v e r s i o n
  41. 41. ϯϲ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± 9DODVNRYD..UDPDURYD. %DUWRVRYD9 0XOWLFULWHULDPRGHOVXVHGLQWKH6ORYDN FRQVXPHUPDUNHWIRUEXVLQHVVGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ3URFHGLD(FRQRPLFVDQG)LQDQFH± KWWSVGRLRUJV± ±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e - v e r s i o n
  42. 42. 3XEOLVKHU(OLYD3UHVV65/ (PDLOLQIR#HOLYDSUHVVFRP $OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG e - v e r s i o n
  43. 43. (OLYD 3UHVV LV DQ LQGHSHQGHQW SXEOLVKLQJ KRXVH HVWDEOLVKHG IRU WKH SXEOLFDWLRQ DQG GLVVHPLQDWLRQ RI DFDGHPLF ZRUNV DOO RYHU WKH ZRUOG RPSDQ SURYLGHV KLJK TXDOLW DQG SURIHVVLRQDO VHUYLFH IRU DOO RI RXU DXWKRUV 2XU6HUYLFHV )UHHRIFKDUJHRSHQPLQGHGHFRIULHQGOLQQRYDWLRQDO )UHHVWDQGDUGSXEOLVKLQJVHUYLFHV PDQXVFULSWUHYLHZVWHSEVWHSERRN SUHSDUDWLRQSXEOLFDWLRQGLVWULEXWLRQDQGPDUNHWLQJ 1R ILQDQFLDO ULVN 7KH DXWKRU LV QRW REOLJHG WR SD DQ KLGGHQ IHHV IRU SXEOLFDWLRQ (GLWRUV'HGLFDWHG HGLWRUVZLOODVVLVWVWHSEVWHS WKURXJK WKHSURMHFWV 0RQH SDLG WR WKH DXWKRU IRU HYHU ERRN VROG 8S WR URDOWLHV JXDUDQWHHG ,6%1 ,QWHUQDWLRQDO6WDQGDUG%RRN1XPEHU :H DVVLJQ DXQLTXH,6%1 WRHYHU(OLYD3UHVVERRN 'LJLWDODUFKLYHVWRUDJH%RRNVZLOOEHDYDLODEOHRQOLQHIRUDORQJWLPH:H GRQ WQHHGWRKDYHDVWRFNRIRXUWLWOHV1RXQVROGFRSLHV(OLYD3UHVVXVHV HQYLURQPHQWIULHQGOSULQWRQGHPDQGWHFKQRORJWKDWOLPLWVWKHQHHGVRI SXEOLVKLQJ EXVLQHVV :H FDUH DERXW HQYLURQPHQW DQG VKDUH WKHVH SULQFLSOHVZLWKRXUFXVWRPHUV RYHU GHVLJQ RYHU DUW LV GHVLJQHG E D SURIHVVLRQDO GHVLJQHU :RUOGZLGHGLVWULEXWLRQ:HFRQWLQXHH[SDQGLQJRXUGLVWULEXWLRQFKDQQHOV WRPDNHVXUHWKDWDOOUHDGHUVKDYHDFFHVVWRRXUERRNV ZZZHOLYDSUHVVFRP e - v e r s i o n

×