COVID 19 AND INDIA DURING COVID PANDEMIC

1. e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

2. INDIA DURING COVID-19
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

3. e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

4. INDIA DURING COVID-19
Shubhi Agarwal
Archna Singh
ELIVA PRESS
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

5. Published by Eliva Press
Email: info@elivapress.com
Website: www.elivapress.com
ISBN: 978-1-63648-344-3
© Eliva Press, 2021
© Shubhi Agarwal, Archna Singh
Cover Design: Eliva Press
Cover Image: Freepik Premium
Printed at: see last page
No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by
any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying,
recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system,
without permission in writing from Eliva Press.
Any brand and product names mentioned in this book are subject to
the trademark, brand, or patent protection and are trademarks of
their respective owners. The use of brand names, trade names,
product names, product descriptions, is in no way implies that such
names may be regarded as unrestricted by trademark and brand
protection laws and thus may be used by anyone.
All rights reserved.
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

6. 7DEOHRIRQWHQWV
6HULDO1R 7LWOHRI5HVHDUFK3DSHU 3DJH1XPEHU 3UHYLRXV3XEOLVKHU
29,'DQG,WV,PSDFW
RQWKH,QGLDQ(FRQRP
,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI7UDGH
RPPHUFH,,$57-DQXDU
-XQH9ROXPH1RSS
‹6*65
ZZZVJVUMRXUQDOVFRLQ
29,' DQG )RRG
,QVHFXULWLQ,QGLD
%RRN WLWOHG 6RFLR(FRQRPLF
,PSDFWRI29,'RQ,QGLDQ
(FRQRP E 1% 3XEOLFDWLRQV
KDYLQJ ,6%1 1R
LQWKHHDU
$ 6WXG RI %HKDYLRUDO
KDQJHV LQ RQVXPHUV
GXULQJ29,'$DVH
6WXGRI'HOKL
%RRN WLWOHG ,PSDFW RI 29,'
RQ'LIIHUHQW6HFWRUVRI,QGLDQ
(FRQRP E $FDGHPLF
3XEOLFDWLRQV KDYLQJ ,6%1 1R
LQ WKH HDU
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

7. e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

8. ϯ
7LWOH29,'DQG,WV,PSDFWRQWKH,QGLDQ(FRQRP
$%675$7
29,'LVDGLVHDVHFDXVHGEDQHZVWUDLQRIRURQDYLUXV2VWDQGVIRUFRURQD9,IRUWKHYLUXV
DQG'IRUGLVHDVH7KLVUHVHDUFKSDSHUIRFXVHVRQWKHLPSDFWRIWKHRXWEUHDNRIWKHSDQGHPLF29,'
RQWKH,QGLDQ(FRQRP29,'PDNHVDQDGYHUVHLPSDFWRQPDQVHFWRUVRIWKH,QGLDQ(FRQRP
7KLVSDSHUGHSLFWVWKHLPSDFWRI29,'RQGLIIHUHQWVHFWRUVRIWKH,QGLDQ(FRQRP7KLVSDSHUDOVR
IXUQLVKHVWKHSROLFIUDPHZRUNRIJRYHUQPHQWLQWKLVUHJDUG7KLVSDSHUDOVRJLYHVOLJKWRQWKRVHVHFWRUV
ZKLFKVHHDERRVWGXHWRWKHRXWEUHDNRIFRYLG
.(:25'6RYLG,QGLDQ(FRQRP3DQGHPLF
,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI7UDGH RPPHUFH,,$57-DQXDU-XQH9ROXPH1RSS
‹6*65 ZZZVJVUMRXUQDOVFRLQ
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

9. ϰ
,1752'87,21
The global economy is expected to shrink by over 3% in 2020 – the steepest slowdown since the Great
Depression of the 1930s. ----- IMF REPORT
RURQDYLUXV ZDV ILUVW UHSRUWHG LQ :XKDQ KLQD LQ 'HFHPEHU @ /HW XV ILUVW FRQVLGHU ZKDW
FRURQDYLUXVLV29,'LVDODUJHJURXSRIYLUXVHVWKDWFUHDWHVLOOQHVV,WUDQJHVIURPWKHFRPPRQ
FROGWRPRUHVHYHUHGLVHDVHVOLNH6HYHUH$FXWH5HVSLUDWRU6QGURPHDQG0LGGOH(DVW5HVSLUDWRU
6QGURPH7KHQHZFRURQDYLUXVLVDVSHFLDONLQGRIYLUXVWKDWKDVQRWEHHQLGHQWLILHGLQKXPDQVVRIDU
,KDYHEHHQSRQGHULQJPDQTXHVWLRQVLQPPLQGOLNHZLOO29,'FKDQJHWKHZDWKHZRUOGZRUNV
ZLOOWKLQJVJREDFNWRQRUPDODVEHIRUH29,'ZKDWZLOOEHWKHIXQGDPHQWDOFKDQJHWDNHSODFHLQ
FRPPRQSXEOLFEXVLQHVVPHQLQGXVWULDOLVWVDQGHFRQRPLHV7KHQH[WIHZPRQWKVZLOOEHYHUFUXFLDO
:HKDYHWRDOWHUWKHFRQFHSWRIQRUPDOLQWKLVSDQGHPLF
,QWKLVUHVHDUFKSDSHU,ZLOOH[SORUHDQGGHVFULEHWKHLPSDFWRI29,'RQWKH,QGLDQ(FRQRP,I
SDVWWUHQGVRIVLPLODULQIHFWLRQVDUHDQDO]HGLWFDQEHKHOSIXOWREULQJDQFRQFOXVLRQDVWRZKDWVKRXOG
ZHGRWRPRYHIRUZDUG+RZFDQZHRYHUFRPHWKLVSDQGHPLF««(LWKHUWKURXJKPDVVYDFFLQDWLRQRU
VRFLDOGLVWDQFLQJ:KDWWSHRIOLIHDUHZHH[SHFWLQJLQWKHWLPHRI29,'
,QVLPSOHZRUGV,FDQH[SUHVVWKDWOLTXLGLWLVH[SHFWHGWRUHGXFHDVWKHERUURZLQJFRVWLQUHDOWHUPVZLOO
EHLQFUHDVHG7KRXJK5%,LVFRQWLQXRXVOPDNLQJHIIRUWWRVRIWHQLQWHUHVWUDWHVRPPHUFLDOEDQNVDQG
ILQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVDUHWHQVHGGXHWRWKHIHDURILQVROYHQF13$VDQGEDQNUXSWFLHVLQFUHDVHYHUPXFK
7KHIRFXVDQGVWUHVVRIWKHJRYHUQPHQWZLOOEHWRPHHWRXWWKHKSHUGHPDQGIRUQHFHVVLWJRRGVZKLOH
WKHEXVLQHVVRZQHURIOX[XULRXVDQGFRPIRUWDEOHJRRGVZLOOVWUHVVFRYHULQJWKHLURXWVWDQGLQJPRQH
DPRXQWGXHIURPGHEWRUV0HUJHUVDQGSDUWQHUVKLSVZLOOQRWWDNHSODFHLQWKLVSDQGHPLFSHULRGZKHQ
HYHURQHLVEHDULQJKXJHORVVHV
2%-(7,9(2)5(6($5+
7RIRFXVRQWKHLPSDFWRISDQGHPLFVRQGLIIHUHQWVHFWRUVRIWKHHFRQRP
7RUHIOHFWWKHQHHGIRUSROLFLQWHUYHQWLRQ
5(6($5+0(7+2'2/2*
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

10. ϱ
7KLVSDUWRIWKHUHVHDUFKIXUQLVKHVWKHUHVHDUFKPHWKRGRORJXVHGLQWKLVVWXG7KLVVWXGFRQVLGHUV
'HFHPEHUWR0DDVLWVVWXGSHULRG7KHVWXGXVHVVHFRQGDUGDWD7KHGDWDLVFROOHFWHG
WKURXJKYDULRXVPDJD]LQHVQHZVSDSHUVDQGJRYHUQPHQWZHEVLWHVIRUWKLVVWXG7KLVVWXGIRFXVHVRQ
GHVFULSWLYHUHVHDUFKGHVLJQ7KHVDPSOHGHVLJQFKRRVHVIRUWKLVVWXGLVGHVFULSWLYH
,03$72)3$1'(0,21,1',$1(2120
7KLVSDQGHPLFKDVFUHDWHGQHZLVVXHVIRUWKH,QGLDQ(FRQRPWKDWOHDGVWRDVHYHUHGLVDVWURXVLPSDFW
RQWKHGHPDQGDQGVXSSOVLGH
,PSDFWRQ'HPDQG)URQW$YLDWLRQ+RVSLWDOLWDQG7RXULVPDUHWKHZRUVWVXIIHUHU¶VVHFWRUVWKDWDUH
EHDULQJWKHPD[LPXPEUXQWRIWKHSUHVHQWSDQGHPLFRYLG'XHWRWKHORFNGRZQHIIHFWWKHFORVLQJ
RIVKRSSLQJPDOOVDQGFLQHPDWKHDWUHVKDVEDGODIIHFWHGWKHUHWDLOVHFWRUEUHGXFLQJWKHFRQVXPSWLRQ
RIHVVHQWLDOVDQGHQWHUWDLQPHQWSXUSRVHVLWHPV7KHUHLVDGHFOLQHLQWKHOHYHORILQFRPHSDUWLFXODUOGDLO
ZDJHHDUQHUVGXHWRVORZHFRQRPLFDFWLYLWLHVLQPDQVHFWRUVOLNHUHWDLOVFRQVWUXFWLRQWUDQVSRUWDQG
HQWHUWDLQPHQWHWFWKDWXOWLPDWHOOHDGVWRDIDOOLQWKHFRQVXPSWLRQIURQW7KHUHLVDSRVWSRQHPHQWRI
EXLQJGHFLVLRQVEFRQVXPHUVGXHWRZLGHVSUHDGIHDUDQGSDQLF7KHWUDQVSRUWDWLRQVHFWRULVDIIHFWHG
VHYHUHO GXHWRWKHORFNGRZQHIIHFWZKLFK FDXVHVDUHVWULFWLRQLQWUDYHOLQJ DVDOO VFKRROVFROOHJHV
XQLYHUVLWLHVDQGSULYDWHILUPVDUHRSWLQJZRUNIURPKRPHFXOWXUHDSSURDFK+RWHOVDQGUHVWDXUDQWVDUH
VHHQDVPDMRUVXIIHUHUVDVWKHUHLVWKHFDQFHOODWLRQRIOHLVXUHWULSVEXVLQHVVWULSVFRQIHUHQFHVVHPLQDUV
ZRUNVKRSVLQWHUQVKLSVHWF
)LQDQFLDO0DUNHW)LQDQFLDOPDUNHWLVVHHQDVH[WUHPHOYRODWLOHWKDWOHDGVWRKXJHZHDOWKHURVLRQKXJH
FUDVKHVGXHWRXQFHUWDLQFRQGLWLRQVUHJDUGLQJIXWXUHSUHGLFWLRQDQGUHVXOWVRIRYLG7KHFUDVKRIWKH
VWRFNPDUNHWLVUHVSRQVLEOHIRUGHFOLQLQJFRQVXPSWLRQOHYHOV0DUFKZDVWKHEODFNGDDVWKHUH
ZHUHPDMRUVOLGHVLQGRPHVWLFHTXLWPDUNHWV%RWK%6(DQG16(VOLSSHGPRUHWKDQLQDVLQJOHGD
7KHUHZDVDSRLQWVGURSLQWKH%6(6HQVH[DQGSRLQWVIDOOLQ16(1LIW7KLVGURSKDVUHJXODUO
WDNHQSODFHWRGDWHDVVWRFNLQYHVWRUVUHVRUWHGWRFRQWLQXRXVVHOOLQJDPLGLQFUHDVLQJFDVHVRIRYLG
,QGLDQVWRFNPDUNHWVDJDLQMXPSHGWRDQHZORZOHYHORQ0DUFK%6(6HQVH[FORVHGSRLQWV
ORZDWDQG16(1LIWFORVHGSRLQWVORZHUDW9RODWLOLWDQGZHDOWKHURVLRQRILQYHVWRUV
DUHH[SHFWHGLQHTXLWPDUNHWVGXULQJRYLG
,PSDFWRQ6XSSO)URQW,I,IRFXVRQWKHVXSSOIURQWGHODLQWKHVXSSOFKDLQRIJRRGVIURPKLQD
GXHWRVKXWGRZQRIIDFWRULHVKDVDGYHUVHODIIHFWHGPDQ,QGLDQPDQXIDFWXULQJVHFWRUVZKLFKGHSHQGRQ
KLQDIRUWKHLUUDZPDWHULDODQGILQDOSURGXFWV7KHSUREOHPRIVKRUWDJHRIUDZPDWHULDOLVIDFHGEVRPH
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

11. ϲ
LPSRUWDQWVHFWRUVOLNHHOHFWURQLFVDXWRPRELOHVFKHPLFDOSURGXFWVDQGSKDUPDFHXWLFDOVHWF%XVLQHVV
VHQWLPHQWVLQYHVWPHQWDQGSURGXFWLRQVFKHGXOHVRIILUPVJHWKDPSHUHGGXHWRWKHVSUHDGRIRYLG
([SRUWVRI,QGLDKDYHEHHQDIIHFWHGDGYHUVHOGXHWRWKHVORZGRZQLQPDQXIDFWXULQJDFWLYLWLQKLQD
DQGRWKHUPDUNHWVOLNH$VLDWKH86DQG(XURSH
,QWHUQDWLRQDO7UDGHKLQDKDVEHHQDJDPHFKDQJHUIRU,QGLDQPDUNHWVGHDOLQJLQPDQFRPPRGLWLHV
OLNHJHPVDQGMHZHOUVHDIRRGSHWURFKHPLFDOVHWF7KHRXWEUHDNRIRYLGKDGPDGHDQHJDWLYH
LPSDFWRQWKHH[SRUWVRIKLQD)RUH[DPSOHWKHILVKLQJVHFWRULVSUHGLFWHGWREHDUDORVVRIPRUHWKDQ
FURUHVGXHWRDUHGXFWLRQLQH[SRUWV(YHQ,QGLDH[SRUWVSHUFHQWRILWVGLDPRQGWRKLQD+XJH
ORVVHVRIFURUHVZHUHLQFXUUHGE-DLSXUGXHWRWKHFDQFHOODWLRQRIIRXUPDMRUWUDGHHYHQWV
EHWZHHQ)HEUXDUDQG$SULO,QGLDH[SRUWVSHUFHQWRILWVSHWURFKHPLFDOVWRKLQD%HFDXVHRIH[SRUWV
UHVWULFWLRQVWRKLQDSHWURFKHPLFDOVFRPPRGLWLHVDUHH[SHFWHGWRIXUQLVKDUHGXFWLRQLQSULFHV'XHWR
RYLGWKHLPSDFWRQ,QGLD VWUDGHLVDERXW86GROODUPLOOLRQDVSHUWKHUHSRUWRI817$'$VD
UHVXOWRIWKHPDQXIDFWXULQJVORZGRZQLQKLQDWKDWLVDGYHUVHODIIHFWLQJZRUOGWUDGH,QGLDKDVEHFRPH
WKHWRSHFRQRPLHVWKDWDUHDGYHUVHODIIHFWHG,I,WDONRI,QGLDWKHRYHUDOOLPSDFWRQWUDGHLVJLYHQ
EHORZ
7$%/(,PSDFWRQ7UDGH
Chemical Sectors 0LOOLRQ'ROODUV
Textiles and Apparel 0LOOLRQ'ROODUV
Automobile Sector 0LOOLRQ'ROODUV
Metals and Metal Goods 0LOOLRQ'ROODUV
Wood Products and Furniture 0LOOLRQ'ROODUV
Electrical Machinery 0LOOLRQ'ROODUV
Leather Goods 0LOOLRQ'ROODUV
6285(),,5(3257 0DUFK
/HW¶VKDYHDSRVLWLYHORRNDW29,'RQVRPHVHFWRUVRIDQHFRQRP@
'LJLWDODQG,QWHUQHWHFRQRPIRUPVDQHZSODWIRUPWKDWLVSODLQJNHUROHHYHUZKHUHZKLFKDUH
GHVFULEHGEHORZ 2QOLQH(GXFDWLRQ DQGRQOLQHVNLOOVZHELQDUV FRQIHUHQFHVWUDLQLQJSURJUDPV HWF
2QOLQHJURFHULHVHVVHQWLDOJRRGV6XGGHQLQFUHDVHLQGLJLWDOFRQWHQWOLNH337V3')VDXGLRDQGYLGHR
OHFWXUHVHWF
)DVW0RYLQJRQVXPHU*RRGVDQG5HWDLOVHFWRUZLOOERRVWXSLPPHQVHO
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

12. ϳ
:LWK FRQWLQXRXV IHDU RI 29,' IRRG RXWOHWV FKDLQ VWRUHV PDOOV FDWHULQJ WR ORZ FRQVXPHU
GHPDQGVRGLJLWDOSODWIRUPWRSXUFKDVHWKHJRRGVZLOOOHDGWRDVKRRWXS
)LUPVVHOOLQJFKHPLFDOVZLOOIHHODELJMXPSGXHWRWKHLQFUHDVHGFRQVXPHUGHPDQGIRUVDQLWL]HUV
GUXJVGLVLQIHFWDQWVDQGPHGLFLQHVHWF
3KDUPDFHXWLFDOVILUPVDUHVHWWRREVHUYHJURZWKSURVSHFWVLQQHDUIXWXUH
0DQ OLYHV ZLOO EH ORVW DQG PLOOLRQV PRUH JHW DGYHUVHO DIIHFWHG 7KHUH LV DQ LPPHGLDWH QHHG IRU
LQWURVSHFWLRQZLWKLQFRXQWULHVWRPDNHUHDOLJQPHQWRIEXVLQHVVHV,W VDFRPPRQVDLQJZKHQOLIHRIIHUV
RXDOHPRQPDNHLWOHPRQDGH7KHVDPHLVUHTXLUHGWREHIROORZHGLQWKLVVLWXDWLRQRI29,'
7KHUHPDEHDVLOYHUOLQLQJLQWKLVWRR:HDOOPDKDYHWRZDLWSDWLHQWOIRUWKHUDLQFORXGVWRGHSDUW
,IZHORRNGHHSOVRZHILQGWKDWKLQDLVFRPLQJEDFNWRQRUPDOHYHQWKRXJKLWWRRKDVIDFHGWKHZUDWK
RI29,'KLQDLVVWLOODGRPLQDQWH[SRUWHURIUDZPDWHULDOVDQGILQDOSURGXFWV
,QWKLVVFHQDULRRI29,'7HFKQRORJZLOOQRZFRPHRQWKHIURQWOLQHQHHGLQPRVWFRUSRUDWLRQV
ZKHWKHULWLVWKHFRUSRUDWHZRUOGRUHGXFDWLRQILHOGRUSXUFKDVLQJRIRQOLQHSURGXFWVHWF%HIRUH29,'
7HFKQRORJZDVWDNHQDVDVXSSRUWIXQFWLRQWRRODVDPHDQVWRJHWDQHQGWork from home culture
will be the new normal. Many corporations have realized that employees working from home are
equally efficient and productive as compared to when they were working from the coming to their
departments. I suppose it will reduce infrastructural costs.
LWLHVQRZDUHPRUHIRFXVLQJRQVXVWDLQDEOHGHYHORSPHQWPRGHOV(QYLURQPHQWVRFLDODQGJRYHUQDQFH
ZLOOEHDQHZZDIRUZDUGEQRQHQYLURQPHQWDOIULHQGOEXVLQHVVXQLWV([WUDPHGLDWRUVDUHJLYHQD
EDFNZDUGSXVKZLWKWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIQHZDQGFRPSDFWYDOXHFKDLQV ,W ZLOOKHOSWRLPSURYHWKH
HIILFLHQFDQGSURGXFWLYLWRIODERU7KHEHVWVWUDWHJWRVXUYLYHLQWKLV29,'LVWRIRFXVRQVDOHV
ZLWKRXWSURILWEEXVLQHVVRZQHUV6XUYLYDORIEXVLQHVVZLOOEHFRPHQHZQRUPDODQGPRUHHVVHQWLDOWKDQ
FODLPLQJKXJHYDOXDWLRQEDVHGRQVDOHVJURZWK
'DWDDQGGDWDDQDOVLVZLOOEHFRPHDQHZSDWKWRH[SORUHLQWKLV29,'(YHUWKLQJLQWKLVQHZ
QRUPDOZRUOGLVEDVHGRQGDWDVRPLVXVHRIGDWDWKURXJKDUWLILFLDOLQWHOOLJHQFHZLOOEHFRPHDSRSXODU
WUHQG:HDUHZHOONQRZQWKDWJRYHUQPHQWDQGSULYDWHHQWLWLHVDUHQRWYHUSURPSWDQGHIILFLHQWLQUROOLQJ
RXW FRQWDFW WUDFLQJ WRROV WKDW KDYH SRRU LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ DQG SRVH VHYHUH SULYDF DQG GDWD VHFXULW
SUREOHPV$VSHUPFRPPRQXQGHUVWDQGLQJGDWDFDQSODDOHDGUROHLQHOLPLQDWLQJWKHLPSDFWRIDQ
YLUDOQHZVLQIRUPDWLRQHWFOLNHSURWHVWVIDOVHFKDUJHVWRVRPHRQHPLVLQIRUPDWLRQGLVHDVHV«'DWDDQG
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

13. ϴ
,7VHFXULWZLOOOHDGWRDVLJQLILFDQWDVSHFWIRUWKHLQGXVWULDOXQLWVDQGEXVLQHVVRZQHUV,WZLOOEHFRPHD
WRXJKWDVNIRUWUDGLWLRQDOEXVLQHVVHVWRVXUYLYHLQWKHSUHVHQWHUDZLWKRXWDFFHVVWRLQIRUPDWLRQWKDW
XOWLPDWHOZLOOEHFRPHDOLIHOLQH
7KHUHLVDVKLIWIURPDQDVVHWKHDYPRGHOWRDVVHWOLJKWPRGHOZKHUHHFRQRPLFDFWLYLWLHVZLOOEH
XQGHUWDNHQWKURXJKSXEOLFWUXVWVUHDOHVWDWHLQYHVWPHQWWUXVWVLQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQYHVWPHQWWUXVWV7KHODVW
WZR DUH LQQRYDWLYH YHKLFOHV WKDW DOORZ GHYHORSHUV WR PRQHWL]H UHYHQXHJHQHUDWLQJ UHDO HVWDWH DQG
LQIUDVWUXFWXUHDVVHWVZKLOHHQDEOLQJLQYHVWRUVRUXQLWKROGHUVWRLQYHVWLQWKHVHDVVHWVZLWKRXWDFWXDOO
RZQLQJWKHP(TXLWILQDQFLQJZLOOEHFRPHDSRSXODUWRROLQVWHDGRIGHEWILQDQFLQJ
,QGLDQ(FRQRPVWDQGVWRWDNHDGYDQWDJHRIWKHIDOOLQFUXGHRLOSULFHVEXWWKHSRSXODWLRQLQWKHDJH
JURXS RI HDUV FDQ FUHDWH DQ LVVXH RI ORZ FRQVXPHU GHPDQG 7KHVH GDV¶ ZRUOG PDUNHW LV
GRPLQDWHGDQGFRQWUROOHGEULJKWZLQJSROLWLFLDQVZKRIRFXVHGRQ0DNH/RFDORQVXPH/RFDO,Q
WKHSRVW29,'HUDFXUWDLOPHQWDQGUHGXFWLRQRIWUDGHUHVWULFWLRQVDQGIUHHPDUNHWVFDQEHVHHQDQG
H[SHFWHGWREORRP
7KHVXFFHVVPDQWUDLQWKLV29,'SHULRGLV³RXQHHGWROLYHWREHLQWKHJDPH´7KRVHEXVLQHVVHV
WKDWFDQKDYHWKHFDSDELOLWWRVXUYLYHILQDQFLDOOZLOOEHYLFWRULRXVLQWKHFRPLQJWLPHV2QFHWKHZRUOG
RYHUFRPHVWKLVSDQGHPLFWKHUHZLOOEHDQLQFUHDVHLQWKHDYLDWLRQVHFWRUWUDYHODQGWRXULVPKRVSLWDOLW
HQWHUWDLQPHQW DQG UHQWDO GHPDQG RQVWUXFWLRQ FHPHQW EULFNV PHWDOV FORWKV FRVPHWLFV ZDVWH
PDQDJHPHQWKDLUVDORQVPHWDOVWUDQVSRUWDWLRQZLOODOVRVHHPWRLQFUHDVHHQGOHVVO2QWKHRWKHUKDQG
D SDSHU EXVLQHVV FDQ EH ZLSHG RXW IURP WKH ZRUOG ZLGH DV HYHURQH KDV VWDUWHG WR FKRRVH DQ
HQYLURQPHQWDOOIULHQGOZDWRUHDGDQGVWXG(OHFWURQLFPHGLDZLOOEHWKHQHZQRUPDODIWHU29,'
*52:7+352-(7,2162),1',$
,QGLDQ(FRQRPLVH[SHULHQFLQJVORZJURZWKGXULQJWKHODVWTXDUWHURIWKHFXUUHQWILVFDO7KHRXWEUHDN
RIRYLGPDOHDGWRVWDJQDQWJURZWKHYHQLQWKHILUVWTXDUWHURI)0DQFUHGLWUDWLQJ
DJHQFLHVKDYHUHYLVLWHGDQGUHYLVHGWKHJURZWKSDWKRI,QGLDLQVSHFLDOUHIHUHQFHWRWKHLPSDFWRIRYLG
WKDW FUHDWHV WUDYHO UHVWULFWLRQV VXSSO FKDLQ GLVWXUEDQFHV WKH GHFOLQH LQ FRQVXPHU GHPDQG DQG
LQYHVWPHQWUDWH
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

14. ϵ
7KHHFRQRPLFJURZWKRI,QGLDKDVEHHQUHGXFHGEFitch RatingsIURPSURMHFWHGHDUOLHUWR
IRU,WGLGVREHFDXVHLWSUHGLFWVORZGRPHVWLFGHPDQGDQGVXSSOFKDLQGLVWXUEDQFHVEHFDXVH
RIRYLGZKLFKEDGOPDNHVDQLPSDFWRQPDQXIDFWXULQJLQGXVWULHV@
7KHHFRQRPLFJURZWKRI,QGLDKDVDOVREHHQORZHUHGEStandard and PoorsIURPSURMHFWHGHDUOLHU
WRIRU@
OECDKDVUHYLVLWHGDQGUHYLVHGGRZQIRUHFDVWRIHFRQRPLFJURZWKRI,QGLDWRIRUDQG
IRU2('KDVDOVRJLYHQDZDUQLQJDERXWJOREDOJURZWKLQFRXOGFRPHGRZQE
EDVLVSRLQWVDVFRPSDUHGWRZKDWZDVSURMHFWHGLQ1RYHPEHUODVWHDU@
7KHHFRQRPLFJURZWKRI,QGLDKDVDOVREHHQGURSSHGEMoodyIURPHVWLPDWHGHDUOLHULQ)HEUXDU
WRIRU@
,QGLDQHFRQRPFDQEHDUDKXJHFRVWGXHWRWKHRXWEUHDNRIRYLGZKLFKUDQJHVEHWZHHQ86
PLOOLRQDQG86ELOOLRQLQORZHUFRQVXPSWLRQGHPDQGSUHGLFWHGEthe Asian Development Bank
@
29,'$1'*/2%$/*52:7+
7KHJOREDOHFRQRPLVJURZLQJDWSHUFHQWLQWKHHDUZKLFKGHSLFWVDIDUZRUVHVLWXDWLRQLI
FRPSDUHGWRWKHJOREDOILQDQFLDOFULVLVRIDVSHUWKH,0)5HSRUW0DQWRSPRVWFRXQWULHVDUH
H[SHFWHGWRVKULQNEWKHIROORZLQJSHUFHQWLQWKHHDU@
7$%/(±6ORZGRZQWKHSHUFHQWRIWRSPRVWFRXQWULHVGXULQJ29,'
ITLAY SPAIN FRANCE GERMANY UK US JAPAN
6285(KWWSVLQGLDQH[SUHVVFRPDUWLFOHH[SODLQHGH[SODLQHGKRZKDVFRYLGDIIHFWHGWKHJOREDOHFRQRP
'HYHORSHGFRXQWULHVKDYHEHHQDIIHFWHGEDGODQGWKHDUHVHHPHGWRJURZELQRQWKHRQH
KDQGDQGWKHRWKHUKDQGGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVDUHVHHPHGWRVKULQNE7KHJURZWKUDWHVWRUZLOO
EHFRPHZRUVHLIKLQDLVH[FOXGHGIURPWKLVOLVWRIFRXQWULHVEHFDXVHWKHJURZWKUDWHLVVHHPHGWREH
LQWKLVHDURI*'3ILJXUHVRIKLQDUHGXFHGELQWKHILUVWTXDUWHURIRQWKH
FRQWUDURXWSXWLQ6RXWK.RUHDGURSSHGEHYHQWKRXJKWKHFRXQWUGLGQRWIROORZORFNGRZQEXW
SUDFWLFHGWKHPHWKRGRORJRIDJJUHVVLYHWHVWLQJTXDUDQWLQLQJDQGFRQWDFWWUDFLQJ,IZHDUHWDONLQJDQG
IRFXVLQJRQ(XURSHWKHILJXUHVRI*'3LQ)UDQFH6SDLQDQG,WDOGURSSHGEDQG
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

15. ϭϬ
1((')255(/(9$1732/,,(6217+(*29(510(17)5217
There is an urgent need to form a combination of monetary, fiscal, and financial markets measures
to help businesses and the common public cope with this spread of virus and crisis environment. For
framing appropriate action plans and policies, it is significant to know the specific issues that
businesses and the public, in general, are facing recently. At this juncture, it is necessary to provide
support to Indian industries and the economy by the Indian Government and RBI. These are as follows
[9]:
7KHUHLVDQHHGWRUHGXFHWKHFRVWRIIXQGVWKURXJKDUHGXFWLRQLQSROLFUDWHV
7KHUHLVDQHHGWRLQFUHDVHFUHGLWOLPLWVIRUDOOEDQNLQJDFFRXQWVESHUFHQW
7KHUHLVDQHHGWRSURYLGHUHOD[DWLRQLQWKHIDFWRUFRPSOLDQFHVWRHQDEOHWKHLQGXVWULHVWRFRQWLQXH
RSHUDWLRQHYHQLQIHZHUODERUHUVRYHUORQJHUZRUNNHHSLQJLQPLQGWKHKHDOWKLHUDQGVDIHHQYLURQPHQW
6RFLDOGLVWDQFLQJLVIROORZHGLQWKLVDQGFDQEULQJSRVLWLYHRXWFRPHV,IUHTXLUHGKHDOWKFRQFHUQVDQG
ORFNGRZQGHFLVLRQVPXVWEHIROORZHGVWULFWO
7KHUHLVDQHHGWRUDLVHH[SHQGLWXUHRQSXEOLFKHDOWKWRPDLQWDLQDGHTXDWHVXSSOLHVWRPDQDJHWKH
SUREOHPRI29,'PHGLFLQHVPHGLFDONLWVIRUWKHPHGLFDOSURIHVVLRQDOVPDVNVJORYHVPRUHKHDOWK
FOLQLFVPRUHKRVSLWDOVHWF
RPSDQLHV$FW7KHUHLVDQHHGWRH[WHQGWKHGHDGOLQHVIRUGHFODUDWLRQRIILQDQFLDOUHVXOWV VW0D
ILOLQJRIUHWXUQVZLWK52DQGRWKHUVHWF
7KHUHLVDQHHGWRDOORZIRUDGDV¶JUDFHSHULRGLQXWLOLWVWDWXWRUDQG*67SDPHQWVIRU
DIIHFWHGDUHDVDQGLQGXVWULHVZLWKRXWLPSDFWLQJFUHGLWKLVWRU
$VSHUWKHLQVWUXFWLRQRIWKH*RYHUQPHQWDQG5%,DFFHVVLELOLWRIORDQVVKRXOGQRWEHUHGXFHGXQGHU
SURMHFWGHODVLWXDWLRQVEHFDXVHRI29,'
$OOSHQGLQJSDPHQWVWRYHQGRUVDUHUHTXLUHGWREHJLYHQEWKHJRYHUQPHQWGHSDUWPHQWVDVVRRQDV
SRVVLEOH*67UHIXQGVVKRXOGEHFOHDUHGDWWKHHDUOLHVW
7KHUHLVDQHHGWRSURYLGHUHDVRQDEOHDQGHDVLHUWHUPVIRUFUHGLWWRWKRVHVHFWLRQVRIEXVLQHVVHVWKDW
DUHDGYHUVHODIIHFWHGDQGWRWKRVHZKRZLOOVWRSSURGXFWLRQDFWLYLWLHVGXHWRORFNGRZQGHFLVLRQVRIWKH
JRYHUQPHQW
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

16. ϭϭ
*675HWXUQV3URFHGXUHV7KHGHDGOLQHVIRUSDLQJWD[HVHYHUPRQWKQHHGWREHGHIHUUHGDQGWKH
ILOLQJ RI UHWXUQV LV H[SHFWHG WR EH H[WHQGHG $OO VKRZFDXVH QRWLFHVLQTXLULHV PD EH VXVSHQGHG
LQFOXGLQJH[FLVH
7KHUHLVDQHHGWRIROORZOHQLHQFLQOHYLQJSHQDOWLHVIRUODWHILOLQJVRUSDPHQWVOLNHODWHILOLQJRI
%LOORI(QWULHVODWHILOLQJRI,PSRUW*HQHUDO0DQLIHVW ,*0 HWF
7KHUHLVDQXUJHQWQHHGWRLQFUHDVHRYHUGUDIWIDFLOLWLHVWRVWDWHJRYHUQPHQWVIURPWKH5%,,WLV
UHTXLUHGWRSDLPPHGLDWHOWKHSHQGLQJ*67FRPSHQVDWLRQ
7KHUHLVDQHHGWRSURYLGHLQFRPHVXSSRUWWRORZLQFRPHIDPLOLHVWKURXJK'LUHFW%HQHILW7UDQVIHU
30 .LVDQ RMDQD LV DOUHDG GRLQJ LW IRU IDUP KRXVHKROGV )DUPHUV VKRXOG EH VXSSRUWHG E JLYLQJ
0LQLPXP6XSSRUW3ULFHVIRUWKHLUKDUYHVWV7KHUHLVDQHHGWRSURYLGHUHOLHISURJUDPVWRWKRVHIDUPHUV
ZKRKDYHORVWWKHLURXWSXWGXHWRXQVHDVRQDOUDLQVDQGZHDWKHUKDUVKQHVV
(QVXUHOLTXLGLWWRVXUSOXVOHYHOVDQGJLYHVSHFLDOOLTXLGLWIDFLOLWLHVWRWKRVHEDQNVFRPSDQLHV
1%)VWKDWDUHEHDULQJILQDQFLDOVWUDLQEHFDXVHRIULVNIDFWRUVLQWKHILQDQFLDOPDUNHWRUGXHWRODUJH
GHPDQGVKRFN
'LUHFW7D[HVDUUIRUZDUGSHULRGRI0$7PDEHLQFUHDVHGIURPWRHDUV
3HUVRQDO7D[$GGLWLRQDOGHGXFWLRQIDFLOLWLHVPDEHSURYLGHGWRVDODULHGFODVVHVDWDIODWUDWHVR
WKDWWKHFDQVSHQGDGGLWLRQDOH[SHQGLWXUHRQWKHRURQDSUHYHQWLYHPHDVXUHV
$VZHDOONQRZWKHUHDUHODUJHQXPEHUVRISHRSOHZKRZLOOORVHWKHLUMREVLQPDQVHFWRUVOLNHUHWDLO
KRVSLWDOLWWUDYHODQGFRQVWUXFWLRQVHFWRUHWFVRWKHJRYHUQPHQWLVUHTXLUHGWRSURYLGHVRPHLQFHQWLYHV
WRHPSORHUVWRNHHSWKHZRUNHUVXQWLOWKHFRURQDYLUXVSUREOHP
7KHUHLVDQHHGWRVKXWGRZQRIVKRSVLQPDQFLWLHVEXWWKHUHVKRXOGEHSURSHUWLPHDQQRXQFHPHQW
WRRSHQWKHVHVKRSVWRHQVXUHVXIILFLHQWDFFHVVLELOLWRIHVVHQWLDOJRRGVWRFRQVXPHUV
6KLSPHQWVIURPKLQDKDYHVWDUWHGWRDUULYHWKRXJKWKHVKLSVDUHQRWEHLQJDOORZHGWRXQORDGWKHLU
SURGXFWVLQ,QGLDGXHWRIHDURI29,'*RYHUQPHQWVKRXOGILQGZDVWRIDFLOLWDWHWKHVDIHDQGIDVW
XQORDGLQJRIVKLSPHQWVLQ,QGLD:RUNRXWDPHFKDQLVPWRUHGXFHTXDUDQWLQHGHODVDWSRUWV
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

17. ϭϮ
5HJXODUSODQQLQJLVQHHGHGIRUSODQQLQJDWWKHGLVWULFWOHYHOVRFRQVWDQWFRPPXQLFDWLRQLVUHTXLUHG
WREHPDLQWDLQHG$QHDUOFRPPXQLFDWLRQRISODQQHGPHDVXUHVDQGMRLQWSODQQLQJZLWKLQGXVWULHVZLOO
KHOSWRDYRLGVKRFNWRVXSSOFKDLQVDWDORFDOOHYHO
7KHUH DUH QR JXLGHOLQHV VR IDU IRU H[FKDQJLQJ FDVK FXUUHQF ZKLFK FDQ EH WKH PDLQ URXWH RI
VSUHDGLQJRIRURQDYLUXV
7KHUHLVWKHSUREOHPRILOOLTXLGLWLQWKHFRUSRUDWHERQGDQGFRPPHUFLDOSDSHUPDUNHW5%,QHHGVWR
WDNHVWHSVHLWKHUGLUHFWORUWKURXJKWKHFRPPHUFLDOEDQNLQJVVWHPWRHQVXUHDVXIILFLHQWIORZRIIXQGV
LQWKHPDUNHW
2WKHUVHUYLFHV7KHJRYHUQPHQWVLPSRVHGUHVWULFWLRQVRQWKHRSHQLQJRIPDOOVJPVFOXEVVDORQV
UHVWDXUDQWVKRWHOVHGXFDWLRQDOLQVWLWXWLRQVQRQHVVHQWLDOSURGXFWVVKRSVHWF7KHUHLVDQHHGWRSURYLGH
VSHFLDOLQFHQWLYHVWRWKRVHSHRSOHZKRDUHHPSORHGLQWKHVHVHFWRUVDVZHOODVWRWKHFRPSDQLHV%XW
FHUWDLQVHUYLFHVOLNHEDQNLQJDQGKRVSLWDOVDUHQRWXQGHUORFNGRZQHIIHFW
7KHHPSORHUVQHHGWRSDVDODULHVFRQWLQXRXVOIRUWKLVSHULRG7KHVHVDODULHVDUHUHTXLUHGWREH
DGMXVWHGHLWKHULQRYHUWLPHZRUNLQJRULQZRUNLQJRI6XQGD:KLOHDGMXVWLQJKROLGDVRIGDVJLYHQ
WRZRUNHUVZLOOQRWEHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQW
6LPSOHUXOHVIRUEXEDFNLQJRIVKDUHV7KHUHLVDQHHGWRSURYLGHIOH[LELOLWLQPLQLPXPIORRUUXOH
WRJLYHDERRVWLQWKHSULPDUPDUNHWIRU4,3V 4XDOLILHG,QVWLWXWLRQDO3ODFHPHQW
21/86,21
7KLVLVKLJKWLPHWRUHVHWHYHUWKLQJDVWKHZRUOGKDVEHFRPHVWDQGVWLOOIRUIHZPRQWKVGXHWRWKHRXWEUHDN
RIRYLG:HDOODUHDOORZHGWRUHWKLQNUHGHVLJQDQGUHVWUXFWXUHHYHUWKLQJ,IZHLQYROYHLQGRLQJ
FRUUHFWWKLQJVZHPDEHDEOHWRIL[FKDOOHQJHVLQQHZSODWIRUPVWKDWFDQIDFHDQGEHDUKXPDQNLQG
HQYLURQPHQWDO GDPDJH PDEH LW SROOXWLRQ VHOIFHQWHUHG JURZWK RU LQHTXDOLW RU FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI
HFRQRPLFSRZHUDQGZHDOWK«
,WKLQNWKHPRVWVLJQLILFDQWSRLQWLVWKDWZHPXVWHQVXUHDQGPDNHWKHEHVWRIRXUHIIRUWVWKDWWKLVEODFN
SKDVHRIOLIHVKRXOGQHYHUKDSSHQZLWKDOORIXVDJDLQ,DPVXUHWKDWKXPDQNLQGKDVQHYHUWDNHQOHVVRQV
DQGZLVGRPIURPKLVWRU/HW VKRSHIRUDEHWWHUKHDOWKVDIHVXFFHVVIXODQGRIFRXUVHVXVWDLQDEOH
IXWXUHDKHDG
5()(5(1(6
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

18. ϭϯ
KWWSVZZZMDJUDQMRVKFRPJHQHUDONQRZOHGJHZKDWLVWKHLPSDFWRIFRURQDYLUXVRQLQGLDQ
HFRQRP
5DVWRJL 6LGGKDUWKD 7KH1HZ1RUPDO$QDOVLVRI29,',PSDFWRQWKH,QGLDQ(FRQRP
0DNLQJVPDOOWDONV
KWWSVZZZILQDQFLDOH[SUHVVFRPHFRQRPJURZWKSDQJVILWFKFXWVLQGLDVIJGSJURZWK
IRUHFDVWFKHFNUHYLVHGHVWLPDWH
KWWSVHFRQRPLFWLPHVLQGLDWLPHVFRPQHZVHFRQRPLQGLFDWRUVVSIXUWKHUVODVKHVLQGLDVJURZWK
IRUHFDVWWRIURPIRUIDUWLFOHVKRZFPVIU
KWWSVZZZOLYHPLQWFRPQHZVLQGLDLQGLDVJURZWKFRXOGEHWKHQH[WFDVXDOWRIWKH
FRURQDYLUXVRXWEUHDNKWPO
KWWSVHFRQRPLFWLPHVLQGLDWLPHVFRPQHZVHFRQRPLQGLFDWRUVFRURQDYLUXVPRRGVFXWVLQGLD
JURZWKIRUHFDVWWRIRURQGDPSHQHGGRPHVWLFGHPDQGDUWLFOHVKRZFPV
KWWSVZZZOLYHPLQWFRPQHZVLQGLDFRURQDYLUXVRXWEUHDNLQLQGLDFRXOGFRVWWKHHFRQRP
ELOOLRQDGEKWPO
KWWSVLQGLDQH[SUHVVFRPDUWLFOHH[SODLQHGH[SODLQHGKRZKDVFRYLGDIIHFWHGWKHJOREDO
HFRQRP
),,5HSRUW0DUFK
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

19. ϭϰ
7LWOH29,'DQG)RRG,QVHFXULWLQ,QGLD
$%675$7
)RRGLQVHFXULWKDVEHFRPHRQHRIWKHELJJHVWKXPDQLWDULDQFKDOOHQJHVDIWHUWKHRXWEUHDNRI29,'
7KLVUHVHDUFKVWDUWVEGHSLFWLQJWKHVWDWXVRIKXQJHUDQGIRRGLQVHFXULWLQ,QGLD7KLVUHVHDUFKSDSHU
ZLOOGLVFXVVWKHLPSDFWRI29,'RQWKHHFRQRPLFVWDWXVRIWKH,QGLDQ(FRQRPDORQJZLWKWKH
GHFOLQLQJVWDWXVRI,QGLDLQWKH*OREDO+XQJHU,QGH[7KLVVWXGZLOOVKRZWKHLOOLPSDFWRI29,'
RQIRRGLQVHFXULWDQGQXWULWLRQDOVWDWXV ZKLFKDUHEDVHGRQVWDWLVWLFVUHOHDVHGEWKHJRYHUQPHQWDVZHOO
DVSURYLGHGEWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDODJHQFLHV 7KLVVWXGZLOOGLVFXVVWKHVWHSVWKDWQHHGWREHWDNHQIRU
SUHYHQWLQJWKHQHJDWLYHLPSDFWRIIRRGLQVHFXULWDQGKXQJHURQHFRQRPLFJURZWK7KLVUHVHDUFKDOVR
ZLOOVKRZWKHJRYHUQPHQWHIIRUWVLQWKLVGLUHFWLRQ
.(:25'629,'IRRGLQVHFXULWKXQJHU
%RRNWLWOHG6RFLR(FRQRPLF,PSDFWRI29,'RQ,QGLDQ(FRQRPE1%3XEOLFDWLRQVKDYLQJ
,6%11RLQWKHHDU
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

20. ϭϱ
,1752'87,21
The pandemic named Coronavirus-19 will leave many Indian lives hungry and undernourished.
Undernourished people with weak immune systems and those co-morbidities are strongly linked to
adverse COVID-19 outcomes.
7KHRXWEUHDNRISDQGHPLF29,'DVZHOODVWKHJOREDOHFRQRPLFVORZGRZQKDYHHYLGHQFHGWKDWWKH
JOREDOHFRQRPLVQRWSUHSDUHGWRPDQDJHIRRGVHFXULW,WZDVSURMHFWHGEWKH81UHFHQWUHSRUWRQ
³7KH6WDWHRI)RRG6HFXULWDQG1XWULWLRQLQWKH:RUOG´WKDWWKH6XVWDLQDEOH'HYHORSPHQW
*RDORI]HURKXQJHUZLOOQRWEHDWWDLQHGE'XHWRWKHORRPLQJRIWKHIRRGLQVHFXULWSUREOHP
,QGLD¶VSXEOLFKHDOWKLVWKHODUJHVWLVVXHLQIURQWRIWKH,QGLDQ(FRQRP7KRXJKWKHVWDWXVRIPDOQXWULWLRQ
LQ,QGLDKDVLPSURYHGLQUHFHQWHDUVVWLOO,QGLDLVWKHKRPHRIWKHODUJHVWQXPEHURIVWXQWHGNLGVDWWKH
JOREDOOHYHO
$FFRUGLQJWR816HFUHWDU*HQHUDOWKLVSDQGHPLFKDVZDVKHGWKHLPSURYHPHQWZKLFKZDVPDGHIRU
PHHWLQJWKHJRDOVRI6XVWDLQDEOH'HYHORSPHQWLH]HURKXQJHULPSURYHGQXWULWLRQDOVWDWXVDQGDWWDLQLQJ
IRRGVHFXULW5HSRUWRQ6XVWDLQDEOH'HYHORSPHQW*RDOVHQVXUHVWKDWULVLQJKXQJHULQHTXDOLWDQG
DQLQFUHDVHLQFOLPDWHFKDQJHZLOOEULQJLUUHYRFDEOHDIWHUHIIHFWV,WZDVSUHGLFWHGEWKH:RUOG)RRG
3URJUDPPHWKDW29,'ZLOOOHDGWRKXQJHUDJJUDYDWLRQEWKHHQGRIWKHHDU7KHUHLVDQ
XUJHQWQHHGWRFRSHZLWKIRRGVKRUWDJHVDQGSURYLGHVRFLDOSURWHFWLRQSURJUDPV5HSRUWRQWKH*OREDO
3DQHOGHPRQVWUDWHGWKDWWKHUHLVDQHHGWRIXOILOOWKHQXWULWLRQDOUHTXLUHPHQWVWRSURWHFWWKHKHDOWK
RIFLWL]HQVIURPWKLV29,'
,QGLD¶VORFNGRZQZDVWKHODUJHVWRILWVNLQGLQWKHZRUOGWKDWPDNHDQLPSDFWRQDURXQGELOOLRQ
SHRSOH7KHDQQRXQFHPHQWRIORFNGRZQUHVXOWHGLQDSDQLFH[RGXVRIPLJUDQWODERUHUVEDFNWRWKHLU
KRPHWRZQVLQ8WWDU3UDGHVK%LKDU-KDUNKDQGDQGRWKHUVWDWHV0DQSUHIHUUHGWRJRWRWKHLUKRPHVDV
WKHZHUHLQDGLFHVLWXDWLRQGXHWRXQSUHGLFWDEOHIXWXUHHYHQWVOLNHQRMREQRLQFRPHQRJXDUDQWHHRI
IRRGRUHYHQVKHOWHU$VPDQUHVWULFWLRQVZHUHLPSRVHGGXULQJWKHORFNGRZQRQOHVVHQWLDOVHUYLFHV
ZHUHDYDLODEOHDQGQRQHVVHQWLDOUHPDLQHGXQDYDLODEOHWKDWUDLVHGXQHPSORPHQWHVSHFLDOOLQWKHXUEDQ
LQIRUPDOVHFWRU8UEDQXQHPSORPHQWKDVLQFUHDVHGWRSHUFHQWRQWKHRWKHUKDQGWKHRYHUDOOUDWH
RIXQHPSORPHQWZDVSHUFHQWDVSHUWKHUHSRUWSURYLGHGEWKHHQWUHIRU0RQLWRULQJ,QGLD¶V
(FRQRP 0,( :RUOG%DQNE VKRZHGWKDWWKHXQHPSORPHQWUDWHZDVHDUVKLJKLQ
,QGLDQ (FRQRP ZDV EHLQJ FULSSOHG E WKLV 29,' SDQGHPLF DV ZHOO DV DQ HFRQRPLF
VORZGRZQIRUWKHODVWWZRWKUHHHDUVDIWHUGHPRQHWL]DWLRQDQGLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRI*67
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

21. ϭϲ
:RUOG%DQN5HSRUWGHPRQVWUDWHGWKDWPLOOLRQLQWHUQDOPLJUDWLRQVZHUHXQGHUWDNHQLQ,QGLD7KHUH
ZDVDKXJHUHYHUVDOIURPXUEDQWRUXUDOPLJUDWLRQZLWKLQLQLWLDOJXLGHOLQHVRIORFNGRZQ$URXQGVL[ODNKV
PLJUDQWODERUHUVZHQWWRWKHLUKRPHVRQEDUHIRRW7KHUHZDVRYHUFURZGLQJLQWKHEXVHVDQGWUDLQV
WKRXJKVRFLDOGLVWDQFLQJLVWKHPDQGDWRUUHTXLUHPHQWLQWKLV29,'WRDYRLGLWLVVSUHDGLQJRXW
/RVVRIMREVLQWKHXUEDQVHFWRUZDVDQRWKHUGUDZEDFNRIWKLV29,',WZLOOPDNHDQHJDWLYHLPSDFW
RQUHPLWWDQFHLQFRPHVDQGUDLVHGWKHQXPEHUVRISHRSOHWRIHHG7KHUHZDVDGHFOLQHRISHUFHQWRI
UHPLWWDQFHLQFRPHLQLQ,QGLD'XHWRWKHORFNGRZQHIIHFWLWZDVGLIILFXOWIRUIDUPHUVWRVHOOWKHLU
rabiKDUYHVWVZLWKWKHFORVLQJRI haatsDQGmandisZKLFKFUHDWHGSUREOHPVLQWKHVXSSOFKDLQVRI
DJULFXOWXUHRXWSXWV)HPDOHODERUHUVZHUHUHGXFHGGXHWRWKHLQFUHDVHGSUHVHQFHRIPDOHODERUHUV7KRVH
IHPDOH ODERUHUV ZKR ZHUH HQJDJHG LQ 0*15(*$ 0DKDWPD *DQGKL 1DWLRQDO 5XUDO (PSORPHQW
*XDUDQWHH$FW ZHUHXQHPSORHGDIWHUWKHPLJUDWLRQRIPDOHODERUHUVIURPWKHXUEDQVHFWRUGXHWRWKH
29,'ORFNGRZQHIIHFW/HVVWKDQSHUFHQWRIPLJUDQWODERUHUVGLGQ¶WKDYHDQLGHQWLWDVZHOODV
UDWLRQFDUGV
2%-(7,9(62)7+(678'
7RGHSLFWWKHVWDWXVRIKXQJHUDQGIRRGLQVHFXULWLQ,QGLD
7RGLVFXVVWKHLPSDFWRI29,'RQWKHHFRQRPLFVWDWXVRIWKH,QGLDQ(FRQRPDORQJZLWKWKH
GHFOLQLQJVWDWXVRI,QGLDLQWKH*OREDO+XQJHU,QGH[
7RVKRZWKHLOOLPSDFWRI29,'RQIRRGLQVHFXULWQXWULWLRQDOVWDWXVZDJHHDUQLQJVRIZRUNHUV
7RVKRZWKHJRYHUQPHQWHIIRUWVLQWKLVGLUHFWLRQ
'$7$$1'6285(6
7KLVUHVHDUFKVWXGWDNHVVHFRQGDUGDWDIRUDQDOVLVSXUSRVHV7KLVUHVHDUFKVWXGKDVDQH[SODQDWRU
UHVHDUFK GHVLJQ 7KH GDWD LV FROOHFWHG IURP GLIIHUHQW JRYHUQPHQW ZHEVLWHV LQWHUQDWLRQDO DJHQFLHV
DUWLFOHVUHVHDUFKSDSHUVDQGUHSRUWVSURYLGHGEWKH:RUOG%DQN7KLVVWXGKDVDQH[SODQDWRUVDPSOH
GHVLJQ
+81*(51875,7,21$/67$786$1')22',16(85,7,1,1',$
6WDWHRI)RRG6HFXULWDQG1XWULWLRQLQWKH:RUOG 62), 5HSRUWVKRZVWKDW,QGLDLVWKHODQGRIWKH
ODUJHVWSRSXODWLRQRIIRRGLQVHFXUHSHRSOH2UJDQL]DWLRQVRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQVKDYHSURYLGHGLQWKLV
UHSRUWUHJDUGLQJWKHLQFUHDVLQJVWDWXVRIIRRGLQVHFXULWEGXULQJLQ,QGLDFURUHV
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

22. ϭϳ
PRUHSHRSOHZHUHOLYLQJXQGHUIRRGLQVHFXULWLQZKHQFRPSDUHGWRWKHHDU7KHPRVW
DXWKRULWDWLYHHVWLPDWLRQUHJDUGLQJIRRGLQVHFXULWDQGKXQJHUZDVSUHVHQWHGE62),5HSRUW7KHUHDUH
WZRPDLQLQGLFDWRUVIRUPHDVXULQJIRRGLQVHFXULWZKLFKZHUHJLYHQE62),VLQFH7KHVHZHUH
WUDGLWLRQDOPHDVXUHPHQWFDOOHGWKH3UHYDOHQFHRI8QGHUQRXULVKPHQWDQGDUHFHQWPHDVXUHPHQWFDOOHGWKH
3UHYDOHQFHRI0RGHUDWHDQG6HYHUH)RRG,QVHFXULW 306), %RWKRIWKHPDUHDFFHSWHGZRUOGZLGHO
DVWKHPHDVXUHPHQWLQGLFDWRUVRISURJUHVVUHJDUGLQJ6XVWDLQDEOH'HYHORSPHQW*RDOV 6'* 22 percent
of the global burden of food insecurity was borne by India which is highest at the global level in 2017-
19. The shameful and saddest part is that the PMSFI rose by 3.7 percent in India though it declined in
the rest of South Asia by 0.5 percent during 2017-19. According to the estimates, 27.8 percent of India’s
population suffered from moderate and severe food insecurity during 2014-16 and its proportion
increased to 31.6 percent during 2017-19. The number of people who are food insecure got increased
from 42.65 crores to 48.86 crores in 2014-16 and 2017-19 respectively.
$VGHSLFWHGEWKHVHGDWDLWLVFOHDUWKDWH[SDQGLQJIRRGLQVHFXULWDQGHFRQRPLFFULVLVZLOOOHDGWR
GHHSHQLQJDJUDULDQVORZGRZQUHGXFHGLQYHVWPHQWRSSRUWXQLWLHVDFURVVGLIIHUHQWVHFWRUVDQGGHFOLQLQJ
MREFKDQFHV:LWKSURORQJHGORFNGRZQGXHWRWKHRXWEUHDNRISDQGHPLFZLOOOHDGWRDVXGGHQORVVRI
OLYHVEHFDXVHRILQFUHDVHGIRRGLQVHFXULWVWDUYDWLRQDQGKXQJHU
:)3 GHPRQVWUDWHGWKHDEVROXWHOHYHORIKXQJHULQFKLOGUHQWKDWLVYHUVHYHUH$URXQG
SHUFHQWRIFKLOGUHQXQGHUWKHDJHRILQ,QGLDVXIIHUIURPZDVWLQJDQGSHUFHQWRIFKLOGUHQIURP
VWXQWLQJ
*OREDO+XQJHU,QGH[ HOXFLGDWHGUDQNVRI,QGLDRXWRIFRXQWULHVLQ$VSHUWKHGDWD
KXQJHUVWDWXVLQ,QGLDLVWKHSRRUHVWDWWKHJOREDOOHYHO)RRGLQVHFXULWLQ,QGLDZDVLQDYHUEDGSRVLWLRQ
HYHQ EHIRUH WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RIORFNGRZQ GXHWR WKLV SDQGHPLF 29,' $SSUR[LPDWHO
PLOOLRQ,QGLDQSHRSOHDUHXQGHUQRXULVKHGDQGSHUFHQWRIIHPDOHVLQWKHDJHJURXSRIHDUVLQ
UHSURGXFWLYHDJHDUHDQDHPLF
3HUIRUPDQFHRQ*OREDO+XQJHU,QGH[ ,1',$
($5 5$1.,1+81*(5,1'(; 287 2) 727$/ 12 2)
28175,(6
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

23. ϭϴ
3DNLVWDQ
0DQPDU
%DQJODGHVK
1HSDO
6UL/DQND
6285(*OREDO+XQJHU5HSRUW,)35,
,QGLDLVLQWKH³YHUKLJK´JURXSDWSHUFHQWDPRQJQDWLRQVZKHUHSXEOLFKHDOWKLPSRUWDQFHRI
FKLOGZDVWLQJUDWHLVFRQVLGHUHGDV³KLJK´RU³YHUKLJK´,QGLDIDOOVLQWKH³VHULRXV´JURXSLQWKHOHYHOV
RIKXQJHUZLWKD*+,VFRUHRI1DWLRQVVXFKDV1RUWK.RUHD5ZDQGD1LJHULD$IJKDQLVWDQDQG
6LHUUD/HRQHDUHZRUVHWKDQWKDWRI,QGLD2QWKHSRVLWLYHIURQW,QGLDKDVVKRZQDOLWWOHLPSURYHPHQWLQ
LWVUDQNLQJVLQFHODVWHDU6RXWK$VLDDQG$IULFD6RXWKRI6DKDUDKDYHWKHZRUVWKXQJHUVLWXDWLRQVDPRQJ
JOREDOUHJLRQV
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

24. ϭϵ
7KHUHLVDUHGXFWLRQLQXQGHUHDUVRIPRUWDOLWLQ,QGLD,WGRHVQRWGHSLFWWKHUHGXFWLRQRIDSUREOHP
LQ,QGLD,QGLDH[SHULHQFHGDGHFOLQHLQXQGHUILYHPRUWDOLWDVSHUWKHJUDSKGHSLFWHGWKDWZDVGULYHQ
ODUJHOEIDOOLQGHDWKVIURPELUWKDVSK[LDRUWUDXPDQHRQDWDOLQIHFWLRQVSQHXPRQLDDQGGLDUUKHD
7KRXJKFKLOGPRUWDOLWFDXVHGESUHPDWXULWDQGORZELUWKZHLJKWLQFUHDVHGHVSHFLDOOLQSRRUHU
VWDWHVDQGUXUDODUHDV3UHYHQWLRQRISUHPDWXULWDQGORZELUWKZHLJKWDUHFODVVLILHGDVDPDLQFDXVH
ZLWKWKHSRWHQWLDOWRUHGXFHXQGHUILYHPRUWDOLWLQ,QGLDWKURXJKWKHSROLFDFWLRQSODQVVXFKDV
EHWWHUDQWHQDWDOFDUHHGXFDWLRQDQGQXWULWLRQDVZHOODVUHGXFWLRQVLQDQHPLDDQGRUDOWREDFFRXVH
,)35,6RXWK$VLD HOXFLGDWHGWKDWSHUFHQWRIWKHKRXVHKROGVLQWKHLUVXUYHZHUHFODVVLILHGDV
IRRGVHFXUHGXVLQJWKH+RXVHKROG)RRG,QVHFXULW$FFHVV6FDOH7KHUHVWRIWKHPLHSHUFHQWZHUH
IDFLQJVHYHUHIRRGLQVHFXULW7KH:RUOG)RRG3URJUDPPHKDVJLYHQDZDUQLQJWRWKHZRUOGZLGHOHYHO
DERXWWKHVHFRQGSDQGHPLFZKLFKZLOOEHFDXVHGEKXQJHU7KLVZDUQLQJFRXOGEHWUXHIRUWKH,QGLDQ
(FRQRP7KHDIIRUGDELOLWRIQXWULWLRXVIRRGLVTXLWHWRXJKVRLWLVWKHUHDVRQIRUWKHSRRULQWDNHRI
GLHWV,WZDVIRXQGWKDWWKHLQWDNHRIDQXWULWLRXVGLHWLVYHUFRVWOIURPWR,WFRVWVDERXW
SHUFHQWIRUPDOHVDQGSHUFHQWIRUDIHPDOHGDLOXQVNLOOHGODERUHU)RRGDQGQXWULWLRQVHFXULWERWK
DUHULVLQJUDSLGOEHFDXVHRIWKHLQFUHDVLQJSULFHVRIIRRGDUWLFOHVGXHWRWKHRXWEUHDNRI29,'7KH
IRRGFULVLVKDVEHFRPHVHYHUHGXHWRUHGXFHGIRRGVXSSODWZKROHVDOHPDUNHWVVKRUWDJHRIODERUHUV
HVSHFLDOOPLJUDQWZRUNHUVWUDQVSRUWFRVWDQGLQFUHDVHGUHVWULFWLRQVLPSRVHGLQDORFNGRZQVLWXDWLRQ
)RRGDUWLFOHVZKRVHQXWULWLRQDOYDOXHLVKLJKOLNHYHJHWDEOHVIUXLWVDQGPLONZHUHDIIHFWHGEDGODVWKH
DUHEDVHGRQIXQFWLRQDOVXSSOFKDLQVEHFDXVHRIWKHLUSHULVKDEOHQDWXUH3ULFHVRIVWDSOHV ULFHZKHDW
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

25. ϮϬ
PDL]HPLOOHWDQGVRUJKXP DQGOHQWLOV JUHHQPRRQJXUDGGDOPDVRRUGDOWRRUORELDDQGPDWDUGDO
HWF ZHUHDOVRLQFUHDVLQJUDSLGO:LWKWKHFRPLQJRIWKLVSDQGHPLFWKHRYHUDOOEXGJHWIRUDQXWULWLRXV
GLHWNHHSVRQULVLQJDQGLWLVH[SHFWHGWREHOHVVDIIRUGDEOHWRWKHYXOQHUDEOHVHFWLRQVRIVRFLHW
5D VWDWHVWKDW29,'DQGKXQJHUFUHDWHGKDUPWRWKHSHRSOHZKLFKOHDG,QGLDWRDYXOQHUDEOH
SRVLWLRQ$VSHUWKHHVWLPDWLRQVHFRQRPLFGDPDJHVFDXVHGEWKLVSDQGHPLFDUHOLNHOWREHVHYHUHZLWK
DQHJDWLYHJURZWKUDWHRI*'3
$EL+DELEHWDO VKRZVWKDWWKHULVNRIGHDWKIURPFRPPRQGLVHDVHVOLNHPDODULDGLDUUKRHDDQG
SQHXPRQLDLVH[SHFWHGWREHERUQHEXQGHUQRXULVKHGFKLOGUHQ,QGLDFDQEHFRPHWKHODQGRIGHDWK
EHFDXVHRIKXQJHUZKLFKLVDJDLQDJJUDYDWHGGXHWRWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIORFNGRZQ
+XQJHU5HSRUW GHSLFWVWKDWWKHJOREDOKXQJHUUDWHKDVEHHQRQWKHLQFUHDVLQJWUHQGVLQFH
DQGLWLVIDLUOFOHDUWKDWFKDQJHLQWKHFOLPDWHLVWKHPDMRUUHDVRQ7KLVSDQGHPLFKDVFUHDWHGKHDOWKULVNV
WRWKRVHZKREHORQJLQWKHKDYHQRW VFDWHJRUGXHWRPDOQXWULWLRQDQGKXQJHU$EDODQFHGGLHWLVDEDVLF
UHTXLUHPHQWWRPDQDJHWKHQHJDWLYHLPSDFWRI29,'DVWKHUHLVQRYDFFLQDWLRQHWDQGRQOJRRG
LPPXQLWFDQVHUYHWKHYHUSXUSRVHZKLFKFDQWEHDWWDLQHGZLWKRXWKDYLQJDQXWULWLRXVGLHW
*HWWOHPDQDQG5DM GHSLFWVWKDWKDYHQRWVOLNHVWUHHWYHQGRUVVPDOOEXVLQHVVHVPLJUDQWZRUNHUV
DQGGDLOZDJHODERUHUVZHUHWKHZRUVWDIIHFWHGSHRSOHGXHWRWKHHQIRUFHPHQWRIORFNGRZQWKDWFUHDWHG
MREORVV/RVVRIMREXOWLPDWHOOHGWRQRLQFRPHRUORZHULQFRPHUHGXFWLRQLQWKHVXSSORIPHUFKDQGLVH
,WZLOOEDGODIIHFWWKHVPRRWKVXSSORIIRRGDUWLFOHVZKLFKEURXJKWIRRGLQVHFXULW
*OREDO 1XWULWLRQ 5HSRUW IXUQLVKHV WKDW WKHUH LV D QHHG WR EXLOG HTXLWDEOH UHVLOLHQW DQG
VXVWDLQDEOHIRRGVVWHPVDQGLQYHVWPHQWLQQXWULWLRQLQWKHDUHDVZKLFKDUHZRUVWDIIHFWHG
:RUOG%DQN D HOXFLGDWHGWKDWUDQNLQJRI,QGLDLQ*OREDO+XQJHU,QGH[VHHPVYHUEDG
ZKHQFRPSDUHGWR3DNLVWDQ%DQJODGHVKDQG1HSDO7KRXJKSHUFDSLWD*'3RI,QGLDLVGRXEOHIURP
HDFKFRXQWULQWHUPVRISXUFKDVLQJSRZHUSDULW
,QGLD*'3*URZWK5DWH
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

26. Ϯϭ
)RRGDQG$JULFXOWXUH2UJDQLVDWLRQ VWDWHVWKHIRXUPDMRUSLOODUVRIIRRGVHFXULW7KHVHDUH
DYDLODELOLW DFFHVV VWDELOLW DQG XWLOL]DWLRQ 7KH JRYHUQPHQW LV FRPPLWWHG WR PDLQWDLQLQJ WKH
DYDLODELOLW DQG DFFHVVLELOLW RI IRRG DUWLFOHV EXW VWDELOLW DQG XWLOL]DWLRQ QHHG WKH DWWHQWLRQ RI WKH
JRYHUQPHQW¶VFRQWURO7KHSXEOLFGLVWULEXWLRQVVWHPKDVLPSURYHGEWKHHIIRUWVRIWKHJRYHUQPHQWEXW
VWLOOJRYHUQPHQWQHHGVLPSURYHPHQWLQWKHGLVWULEXWLRQVVWHP7KHUHLVDQXUJHQWQHHGWRILQGVROXWLRQV
WR UHPRYH WKH H[LVWLQJ ORRSKROHV 7KH )$2 SURYLGHV UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV IRU LPSURYLQJ LQIRUPDWLRQ
VVWHPVDQGSURPRWHVZRUNLQJZLWKSULYDWHVHFWRUVWRDYRLGGLVWULEXWLRQSUREOHPV7KLVSDQGHPLFKDV
GHWHULRUDWHGWKHVWDWXVRIIRRGLQVHFXULWDVZHOODVQXWULWLRQDOVWDWXVLQ,QGLD:RPHQDQGFKLOGUHQDUH
KLWKDUGEPDOQXWULWLRQDQGKXQJHU6WDWHRI)RRG6HFXULWDQG1XWULWLRQVKRZVWKDWDURXQG
PLOOLRQSHRSOHDUHXQGHUQRXULVKHGLQ,QGLD
5RVHQ]ZHLJ DQG 6FKXOW] 6WUDXVV DQG 7KRPDV 6XEUDPDQLDQ DQG 'HDWRQ
:HDYHU DQG +DGOH :HLVHU HW DO DOO GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW IRRG LQVHFXULW ZLOO EULQJ
LPSOLFDWLRQVRQSURGXFWLYLWQXWULWLRQDOVWDWXVHGXFDWLRQDQGZDJHLQFRPH
,QFUHDVLQJWKHGHDWKUDWHILJXUHVDUHQRWSRLQWLQJWRZDUGVWKHXQFRQWUROOHGDQGGHYDVWDWLQJLPSDFWRI
29,'EXWLWILUPOVKRZVWKHPXOWLGLPHQVLRQDOUHVXOWVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKIRRGLQVHFXULWDQGKXQJHU
7KHKXQJHUFULVLVFDQEHHOLPLQDWHGEFDSWXULQJERWKWKHGHPDQGDQGVXSSOVLGH7KHUHLVDQHHGWR
LQFUHDVHFDVKVXSSRUWWRPDLQWDLQVPRRWKIRRGDIIRUGDELOLWDQGSURYLGHIRRGDUWLFOHVDWDVXEVLGL]HGUDWH
EFHQWUDODVZHOODVVWDWHJRYHUQPHQWVRI,QGLD
67(367$.(1%*29(510(17
7KHJRYHUQPHQWRI,QGLDKDVSURYLGHGDQHFRQRPLFUHOLHISDFNDJHRI,15ODNKFURUHVXQGHUWKH
3UDGKDQ0DQWUL*DULE.DODQRMDQDIRUWKHSRRUHVWRIWKHSRRULQ0DUFK7KHPDLQIRFXVRIWKH
FHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQWZDVRQOLTXLGLWDQGPRQHWDUPHDVXUHVEXWWKHEXGJHWDOORFDWHGWRIRRGDQGGLUHFW
FDVKWUDQVIHUZDVOHVVWKDQELOOLRQGROODUV)RRGVHFXULWPHDVXUHVLQFOXGHWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIZKHDW
ULFHDQGSXOVHVIRUPRQWKVWRDSSUR[LPDWHOPLOOLRQSRRUSHRSOH7KHJRYHUQPHQWRI,QGLDKDV
SURYLGHGFHUWDLQRWKHUSURYLVLRQVDVDUHOLHISDFNDJHZKLFKLVJLYHQEHORZ
6HQLRUFLWL]HQVZHUHSURYLGHGGROODUV UXSHHV DVDRQHWLPHFDVKWUDQVIHU
0RQWKOFDVKWUDQVIHURIGROODUV UXSHHV WRPLOOLRQSRRUZRPHQIRUWKUHHPRQWKV
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

27. ϮϮ
$URXQGPLOOLRQSRRUIDPLOLHVZHUHJLYHQIUHHFRRNLQJJDV
3URYLVLRQRIJURFHUNLWVKDYLQJULFHSXOVHVRLOVSLFHVDQGYHJHWDEOHV
+RPHGHOLYHURIVFKRROPHDOVDQGRWKHUQXWULWLRQDOUHODWHGSURJUDPV 16(,QGLD
:HVW%HQJDOKDVH[WHQGHGWKHSURYLVLRQRIIUHHUDWLRQXQWLO-XQH7KHVFKHPHRI³2QH1DWLRQ
2QH5DWLRQDUG´ XQGHUWKH1DWLRQDO)RRG6HFXULW$FWSURYLGHVIRRGJUDLQVWKDWFDQEHQHILW WKH
PLJUDQWODERUHUVSDUWLFXODUOWRWKRVHZKRGRQ¶WKDYHDVSHFLILFSODFHWROLYHSHUPDQHQWORWKHUVWDWHV
DQG XQLRQ WHUULWRULHV OLNH 8WWDU 3UDGHVK $QGUD 3UDGHVK *RD %LKDU 7HODQJDQD 3XQMDE *XMDUDW
0DKDUDVKWUD 0DGKD 3UDGHVK +DUDQD +LPDFKDO 3UDGHVK 5DMDVWKDQ .DUQDWDND .HUDOD
-KDUNKDQG7ULSXUDDQG'DPDQDQG'LXKDYHDOUHDGVWDUWHGWKHVFKHPH
$OOZHUHZHOFRPHVWHSVWRPDLQWDLQDQGHQVXUHVPRRWKIRRGDQGQXWULWLRQDOVHFXULWLQ,QGLD
$OO WKH SURYLVLRQV SURYLGHG E WKH JRYHUQPHQW RI ,QGLD ZHUH LQDGHTXDWH ZKHQ FRPSDUHG WR RWKHU
FRXQWULHV .XUW]OHEHQ VKRZVWKDWWKH86JRYHUQPHQWKDVSURYLGHGGROODUVDVDRQHWLPH
FDVKSDPHQWDQGDQH[WUDZHHNOXQHPSORPHQWDOORZDQFHRIGROODUVIRUZHHNV
)RUWKRVHSHRSOHZKRIDOOEHWZHHQWKHFUDFNVRIWKHVHVRFLDOSURWHFWLRQVFKHPHVLWZLOOEHFRPHDQ
HVVHQWLDOWDVNWRHQVXUHIRRGDYDLODELOLWDVZHOODVWKHLUSULFHVWUXFWXUHVKRXOGQRWEHFRPSURPLVHG7KH
RXWEUHDNRI29,'DQGWKHORFNGRZQVKDYHWKURZQWKHJRYHUQPHQWILQDQFHVDQGWKH,QGLDQHFRQRP
LQWRWXUPRLO
21/86,21$1'68**(67,216
7KHUHLVDQHHGWRJUDQWQXWULWLRQVSHFLILFEXGJHWVWRWDFNOHWKHSUREOHPVRIPDOQXWULWLRQDQGKXQJHU
7KLVSDQGHPLF29,'KDVFUHDWHGLQWHUUXSWLRQVLQWKHVPRRWKIORZRIQXWULWLRQDOVHUYLFHVDFURVVWKH
FRXQWUEHFDXVHQRZQXWULWLRQDOSURJUDPVDUHVWUXJJOLQJWRDFKLHYHWKHLUWDUJHWV$KROLVWLFVVWHPLV
UHTXLUHGWRWDFNOHWKHFKDOOHQJHRIKXQJHUDQGIRRGLQVHFXULW7KHUHLVDQXUJHQWQHHGWRPDNHSURYLVLRQ
IRUGLUHFWFDVKEHQHILWVIUHHIRRGMREFUHDWLRQLQUXUDODVZHOODVLQXUEDQDUHDVDQGWRPDLQWDLQHFRQRPLF
VWDELOLW7KHUHLVDQHHGWRFRYHUDOOYXOQHUDEOHVHFWLRQVVRWKDWWKHFDQDYDLORIWKHEHQHILWVRIWKH
JRYHUQPHQW VFKHPHV DQG GLIIHUHQW SURYLVLRQV 7KHUH LV D QHHG IRU UDSLG LPSURYHPHQW LQ KHDOWK
LQIUDVWUXFWXUH DQG KXPDQ IRUFH UHDGMXVWPHQW RI SROLFLHV DQG SURJUDPV XQGHUWDNHQ DQG DFWLYH
SDUWLFLSDWLRQEDOOVWDNHKROGHUVPDEHLWLQFOXGHVJRYHUQPHQWVSROLWLFLDQVSULYDWHSODHUVDQG1*2V
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

28. Ϯϯ
*LYHQWKHHVWLPDWHVSURYLGHGE306),LWJLYHVDQHVVHQWLDOEDVHOLQHSUHGLFWLRQIRUWKHVLWXDWLRQEHIRUH
WKHRXWEUHDNRIWKLVSDQGHPLF29,',QGLDQ(FRQRPPXVWFRQGXFWUHJXODUQDWLRQDOVXUYHVRQ
IRRGLQVHFXULWWRIXUQLVKDQGFDOFXODWHWKHDFWXDOSLFWXUHRIWKLVSDQGHPLF29,'RQIRRGLQVHFXULW
KXQJHUDQGVWDUYDWLRQRIYXOQHUDEOHVHFWLRQVRIWKHSRSXODWLRQ
7KHILJKWDJDLQVWWKLVSDQGHPLFFRQWLQXHVXQPLWLJDWHG7RHOLPLQDWHWKHQHJDWLYHLPSDFWRIWKLVZH
UHTXLUHQHZUHJXODWLRQVIRUEXVLQHVVHVIUDPHDGPLQLVWUDWLYHOHJDODQGVWUXFWXUDOUHIRUPVWROLYHLQWKLV
QHZQRUPDORI29,'WKDWQHHGVDFRPSOHWHDOWHUDWLRQLQOLYLQJFULWHULDDQGVRFLDOHWLTXHWWHV,QGLD
LV IDFLQJ WKH ZRUVW VLWXDWLRQ DERXW IRRG LQVHFXULW DQG KXQJHU DQG LW JLYHV D ZDNHXS FDOO RQ WKH
VLJQLILFDQFHWRUHVWUXFWXUHIRRGVVWHPVDQGVDYHPLOOLRQVRISHRSOHWKDWGHSHQGRQLW
5()(5(1(6
KWWSVZZZRUIRQOLQHRUJUHVHDUFKFRURQDYLUXVSDQGHPLFDQGFFORQHZLOOOHDYHPDQLQGLDQV
KXQJUDQGXQGHUQRXULVKHG
KWWSVZZZILQDQFLDOH[SUHVVFRPRSLQLRQFRYLGDQGIRRGVHFXULWHQVXULQJ]HURKXQJHUUHVLOLHQW
DQGVWURQJVVWHPVDUHQHHGHG
KWWSVRXWKDVLDLISULLQIRFRYLGLQGLDVUHVSRQVHDQGGLHWVRIUXUDOSRRU
KWWSVWKHZLUHLQDJULFXOWXUHKRZLQGLDFDQLPSURYHLWVIRRGVHFXULWDIWHUWKHSDQGHPLFSDVVHV
KWWSVZZZZRUOGEDQNRUJHQWRSLFDJULFXOWXUHEULHIIRRGVHFXULWDQGFRYLG
KWWSVZZZLISULRUJEORJVWDWHIRRGVHFXULWDQGQXWULWLRQZRUOGUHSRUWULVLQJKXQJHUDQG
FRYLGSUHVHQW
KWWSVZZZVFULEGFRPSUHVHQWDWLRQQDWLRQDOIRRGVHFXULWDFW
KWWSVZZZWKHKLQGXFRPRSLQLRQRSHGPRUHHYLGHQFHRILQGLDVIRRG
LQVHFXULWDUWLFOHHFH
KWWSVJRYHUQPHQWHFRQRPLFWLPHVLQGLDWLPHVFRPQHZVSROLFRSLQRQLPSDFWRIWKHFRYLG
SDQGHPLFRQIRRGVHFXULWRILQGLD
$EL+DELE 0 DVLU 6 DQG RQZD 5 0DUFK )RU ,QGLD¶V ODERUHUV FRURQDYLUXV
ORFNGRZQ LV DQ RUGHU WR VWDUYH 7KH 1HZ RUN 7LPHV KWWSVZZZ
QWLPHVFRPZRUOGDVLDFRURQDYLUXVLQGLDORFNGRZQKWPO
*HWWOHPDQ-DQG5DM6 3RZHUHGEIHDU,QGLDQVHPEUDFHFRURQDYLUXVORFNGRZQ7KH1HZ
RUN7LPHVKWWSVZZZQWLPHVFRPZRUOGDVLDLQGLDFRURQDYLUXVORFNGRZQKWPO
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

29. Ϯϰ
5D $ 0D ,QGLD¶V *'3 JURZWK LQ WR UHPDLQ LQ QHJDWLYH WHUULWRU 5%,
/LYHPLQW KWWSVZZZOLYHPLQWFRPLQGXVWUEDQNLQJLQGLDVJGSJURZWKLQWRUHPDLQLQ
QHJDWLYHFDWHJRUUELKWPO
5RVHQ]ZHLJ 0 5 DQG 6FKXOW] 7 3 0DUNHW RSSRUWXQLWLHV JHQHWLF HQGRZPHQWV DQG
LQWUDIDPLOUHVRXUFHGLVWULEXWLRQKLOGVXUYLYDOLQUXUDO,QGLD7KH$PHULFDQ(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ
±-6725
6WUDXVV - DQG 7KRPDV ' +HDOWK QXWULWLRQ DQG HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW -RXUQDO RI
(FRQRPLF/LWHUDWXUH ±-6725
6XEUDPDQLDQ6DQG'HDWRQ$ 7KHGHPDQGIRUIRRGDQGFDORULHV-RXUQDORI3ROLWLFDO
(FRQRP ±
:)3 7KHVWDWHRIIRRGVHFXULWDQGQXWULWLRQLQWKHZRUOG 62), 6DIHJXDUGLQJDJDLQVW
HFRQRPLFVORZGRZQVDQGGRZQWXUQVKWWSVZZZZISRUJSXEOLFDWLRQVVWDWHIRRGVHFXULW
DQGQXWULWLRQZRUOGVRILVDIHJXDUGLQJDJDLQVWHFRQRPLF
:RUOG %DQN D *'3 SHU FDSLWD FRQVWDQW 86 :RUOG %DQN *URXS
KWWSVGDWDZRUOGEDQNRUJLQGLFDWRU1*'33$3.'
:RUOG %DQN E 8QHPSORPHQW WRWDO RI WKH WRWDO ODERU IRUFH QDWLRQDO HVWLPDWH ²
,QGLDKWWSVGDWDZRUOGEDQNRUJLQGLFDWRU6/8(0727/1(=6ORFDWLRQV ,1
KWWSVWKHZLUHLQULJKWVLQGLDUDQNVDPRQJFRXQWULHVLQJOREDOKXQJHULQGH[
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

30. Ϯϱ
7LWOH$6WXGRI%HKDYLRUDOKDQJHVLQRQVXPHUVGXULQJ29,'$DVH6WXGRI'HOKL
$%675$7
7KHRXWEUHDNRIFRURQDYLUXVLQKLQDLQODWHLVSXWWLQJDQHJDWLYHLPSDFWRQDOOHFRQRPLHVDQG
LQGXVWULHVJOREDOO(FRQRPLFGHSUHVVLRQLQGXVWULDODQGFRUSRUDWHIDLOXUHVLQFUHDVHGXQHPSORPHQW
DQGIRRGLQVHFXULWDUHVLJQLILFDQWODIIHFWHGEWKLVQRYHO29,'ZRUOGZLGH7KLVSDSHUWULHVWR
GHSLFWWKHEHKDYLRUDOFKDQJHVRIFRQVXPHUVRI'HOKLGXULQJ29,'7KLVSDSHUDOVRWULHVWRIXUQLVK
WKHVLWXDWLRQRIXQHPSORPHQWDQGIRRGLQVHFXULW7KHUHVXOWILQGLQJVVKRZWKDWWKHFRQVXPSWLRQKDELW
RIFRQVXPHUFKDQJHVSRVLWLYHOWRZDUGV29,'7KHSDWWHUQRIFRQVXPSWLRQLVDOVRFKDQJLQJ7KH
ILQGLQJVGHSLFWWKHDJJUDYDWLQJVLWXDWLRQRIXQHPSORPHQWDQGIRRGLQVHFXULWRIRXUFRXQWUWKDWSRVHV
DVHULRXVFKDOOHQJHEHIRUHDOORIXVDVLWZDVDOVRDQLVVXHEHIRUH29,'WRR :25'6
.(:25'6RURQDYLUXVEHKDYLRUDOFKDQJHXQHPSORPHQWDQGIRRGLQVHFXULW
%RRN WLWOHG ,PSDFW RI 29,' RQ 'LIIHUHQW 6HFWRUV RI ,QGLDQ (FRQRP E $FDGHPLF
3XEOLFDWLRQVKDYLQJ,6%11RLQWKHHDU
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

31. Ϯϲ
,1752'87,21
/LNHWKHQRYHO29,'VSUHDGDWDJOREDOOHYHOIURPLWVLQFHSWLRQLQKLQDPRUWDOLWDQGLQIHFWLRQ
UDWHVEHJDQWRVKRRW XS H[WUDRUGLQDULO :+2 FRQILUPHG JOREDO LQIHFWLRQVDQGGHDWKVKDYH
UHDFKHG DQG UHVSHFWLYHO 9DFFLQDWLRQ IRU WKLV JOREDO SDQGHPLF 29,' LV
GLIILFXOWWRIRUPVRWKLVFDQOHDGWRPDUNHWLQVWDELOLWHFRQRPLFYRODWLOLWDQGXQFHUWDLQWLQFRQVXPHU
VSHQGLQJRQVXPSWLRQSDWWHUQFKDQJHVDQGEHFRPHVXQFHUWDLQDVJRYHUQPHQWHQIRUFHGVHOILVRODWLRQ
IRUUHWXUQLQJRIWUDYHOHUVRULQGLYLGXDOVZKRPLJKWKDYHEHHQH[SRVHGWRWKH29,'DQGORFNGRZQ
6RFLDOGLVWDQFLQJZKHUHSHRSOHZHUHPDLQOUHVWULFWHGWRVWDLQWKHLUKRPHVDOVRDJJUDYDWHVWKHFKDQJHV
LQWKHSDWWHUQRIFRQVXPSWLRQ,WLVDFRPPRQSVFKRORJRIVXUYLYDOWKDWVWDWHVWKDWSHRSOHPDXQGHUJR
EHKDYLRUDOFKDQJHVGXHWRWKHRFFXUUHQFHRIQDWXUDOGLVDVWHUVKHDOWKFDUHFULVLVDQGWHUURULVWDWWDFNV7KLV
EHKDYLRUDO FKDQJH LQFOXGHV SDQLF EXLQJ FKDQJHV LQ GLVFUHWLRQDU SXUFKDVLQJ KDELWV DQG GHFLVLRQ
LQYHVWLQJHWF$QDQDOWLFDOFRQGLWLRQVKRYHVLQGLYLGXDOEHKDYLRUWRZDUGVGLIIHUHQWMXQFWXUHVFRQFHUQLQJ
EHKDYLRUWKDWLVLUUHYRFDEOH29,'LVQRWDQRUPDOFULVLVEXWDSDQGHPLFDQGWRFRQWUROLWSDUWLDOO
DQG FRPSOHWH ORFNGRZQ GHFLVLRQ ZHUHWDNHQ E JRYHUQPHQW DXWKRULWLHV $OO GHFLVLRQV DVVRFLDWHG WR
FRQWUROWKLVSDQGHPLFUHVXOWHGLQDQHFRQRPLFVORZGRZQRIDOOQDWLRQVRIWKHZRUOGZKLFKDOWHUWKH
GQDPLFVRIWKHPDUNHWRQVXPHUVDUHWKHNLQJSLQRIWKHPDUNHWJURZWKDQGHFRQRPLQHYHUPDUNHW
$WUDQVIRUPDWLRQLVVHHQLQWKHEHKDYLRURIFRQVXPHUVGXULQJWKLVSDQGHPLFEXWKRZPXFKFKDQJHLQWKH
EHKDYLRURIFRQVXPHUVLVDTXHVWLRQWRUHVHDUFK
$3352$+(62)21680(5%(+$9,25
7KUHHDSSURDFKHVIXUQLVKHGWKHFRQVXPHUEHKDYLRU 9DODVNRYDHWDO
6RFLRORJLFDO$SSURDFK,WLVIRFXVHGRQWKHUHDFWLRQSDWWHUQRIFRQVXPHUVLQGLIIHUHQWFLUFXPVWDQFHV
,WLVFRQFHUQHGZLWKWKHEHKDYLRURIFRQVXPHUVZKLFKLVLQIOXHQFHGEVRFLDOOHDGHUVVRFLDOJDWKHULQJV
(FRQRPLFDO$SSURDFK,WLVIRFXVHGRQEDVLFNQRZOHGJHRIWKHPLFURHFRQRPZKHUHFXVWRPHUV
UHIOHFWWKHLUQHHGVDQGQHFHVVLW
3VFKLFDOEDVHG$SSURDFK,WLVIRFXVHGRQWKHOLQNEHWZHHQWKHSVFKHDQGEHKDYLRURIWKHFXVWRPHU
$IWHU1HZ(FRQRPLF5HIRUPLQ,QGLDLQWKHEHKDYLRUDOSDWWHUQRIWKHFRQVXPHUKDVEHHQUHIOHFWHG
E WKHVH DERYHPHQWLRQHG DSSURDFKHV LQ WKHVH ZRUOGZLGH HFRQRPLHV ,QGLYLGXDO LGHQWLW LV JLYHQ D
EDFNVHDW EXW FROOHFWLYH LGHQWLW LV JLYHQ WRS SULRULW $OO LQGLYLGXDOV DUH QRW WKH VDPH DQG QRW DOO
LQGLYLGXDOVNHHSWKHVDPHSHUFHSWLRQDQGSHUVSHFWLYHUHJDUGLQJWKHFULVLVZKHWKHULW VDQHFRQRPLFFULVLV
RUKHDOWKFULVLVWKDWXOWLPDWHOWXUQVLQWRDQHFRQRPLFVORZGRZQ1HZYRJXHLQFRQVXPHUEHKDYLRU
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

32. Ϯϳ
SUHYDLOVDWWKLVSDQGHPLFWLPH'HPDQGVLPSOLILFDWLRQEHFDXVHRIOLPLWHGRIIHUVDQGGLVFRXQWVGXULQJ
SDQGHPLF ZKLFK OHDGV WR EHLQJ IROORZHG LQ WKH SRVWSDQGHPLF SHULRG ZKHUH LQGLYLGXDOV SUHIHU WR
SXUFKDVHVLPSOHRIIHULQJVZLWKPD[LPXPYDOXH7KHXSSHUVHFWLRQVSRVHGDNLQGRIGLVFRPIRUWDQG
GLVDJUHHPHQWZKHQWKHFRQVXPHH[FHVVLYHDPRXQWV5LFKHUVHFWLRQVDOVRFRQFHQWUDWHRQUHFFOLQJDQG
HQYLURQPHQWIULHQGOSURGXFWV5LFKFODVVHVSURYLGHWUDGLWLRQDODQGVLPSOHYDOXHVDQGWHDFKLQJVWRWKHLU
FKLOGUHQ )ODWWHUVDQG:LOOPRWW 7KHUHLVDFULWLFDOLPSDFWRIWKHHFRQRPLFVORZGRZQRQWKH
EHKDYLRUDO DWWLWXGH RI FRQVXPHUV 7KH PDLQ WUHQGV IROORZHG E WKH SXEOLF LQ JHQHUDO LQFOXGH
VLPSOLILFDWLRQRIGHPDQGSDWWHUQVYDOXHEDVHGJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHVWKDWDUHQHFHVVDUIRUVXUYLYDOLQWKLV
SDQGHPLF
2%-(7,9(2)7+(678'
7RUHIOHFWWKHEHKDYLRUDOFKDQJHLQFRQVXPHUVGXULQJDSDQGHPLF
7RGHSLFWWKHXQHPSORPHQWVLWXDWLRQDQGIRRGLQVHFXULWLVVXHV
5(6($5+0(7+2'2/2*
7KLVSDUWRIWKHUHVHDUFKSDSHUGHSLFWVWKHUHVHDUFKPHWKRGRORJXVHGLQWKLVVWXG7KLVVWXGFRQVLGHUV
'HFHPEHU WR $XJXVW DV LWV VWXG SHULRG 7KLV VWXG XVHV SULPDU GDWD IRU PHDVXULQJ D
EHKDYLRUDOFKDQJHRIFRQVXPHUVGXULQJWKH29,'SDQGHPLF7KLVVWXGDOVRXVHVVHFRQGDUGDWD
$QH[SORUDWRUUHVHDUFKGHVLJQLVXVHGLQWKLVVWXG7KHWDUJHWHGSRSXODWLRQFRQVLVWVRIDFDGHPLFLDQV
UHVHDUFKVFKRODUVVWXGHQWVDQGKRXVHZLYHVRI'HOKL$QRQOLQHVXUYHZLWKWKHKHOSRIDTXHVWLRQQDLUH
LVXVHGLQWKLVVWXG7KHTXHVWLRQQDLUHZDVJHQHUDWHGWKURXJK*RRJOHIRUPVWRFROOHFWGDWDZKLFKZDV
FRQGXFWHGEHWZHHQWR2XWRIUHVSRQGHQWVUHVSRQGHQWVKDYHUHVSRQGHG
WRWKHRQOLQHTXHVWLRQQDLUH
0$5.(7'1$0,6'85,1*7+,63$1'(0,29,'
29,'PDNHVDQDIILUPDWLYHLPSDFWRQWKHEHKDYLRUDODWWLWXGHRIWKHFRPPRQSXEOLFHVSHFLDOO
WRZDUGVWKHLUKJLHQHKDELWVHYHQWKRXJK29,'LVRXWRIFRQWUROLQ,QGLD0DQKLGGHQFKDOOHQJHV
ZLOOEHWKURZQEWKH29,'SDQGHPLFWRHYHUFRXQWUZRUOGZLGHDQGRIFRXUVH,QGLDZKLFKLV
H[SRVHGWRDQLQFUHDVHLQ29,'FDVHVH[SRQHQWLDOO$OOSROLFGLVFXVVLRQVVKRXOGEHVXUURXQGHG
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

33. Ϯϴ
ZKLFK IRFXV RQ FRQWUROOLQJ WKLV SDQGHPLF HFRQRPLF FULVLV XQHPSORPHQW IRRG LQVHFXULW DQG
VWLPXODWLRQRIHFRQRPLFJURZWKKDQJHVLQEHKDYLRUDODWWLWXGHDUHWKHSULPHIDFWRUDVZHDOOKDYHWR
OLYHLQWKLV³QHZQRUPDO´IRUXSWRRQHRUPRUHHDUV7KLVSDQGHPLFKDVGLVUXSWHGVHYHUHOWKHGDWR
GDWUDQVDFWLRQVRIGDLOURXWLQH
$QRQOLQHVXUYHFRQGXFWHGLQ'HOKLRIUHVSRQGHQWVVKRZHGWKDW
'RRXZDVKKDQGV
,VWKHUHDQGHFOLQHLQWKHFHOHEUDWLRQRIELUWKGDSDUWLHVDQGDQQLYHUVDULHVRXWVLGHGXULQJ
RYLG
RYLGFDVHVLQ,QGLDDUHLQFUHDVLQJDW
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

34. Ϯϵ
'R RX WDNH ZDUP ZDWHU RU ZDUP OLTXLG WR PDLQWDLQ VPRRWKQHVV LQ WKH WKURDW
,V WKHUH DQ FKDQJH LQ WKH VKRSSLQJ SDWWHUQ GXULQJ RYLG
'RRXZHDUWKHPDVN
'RRXWKLQNWKHJRYHUQPHQWLVUHVSRQVLEOHIRULQFUHDVLQJFDVHVRIRYLGGXHWRLPSURSHU
SODQQLQJ
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

35. ϯϬ
'RRXFRQVXPHRXWVLGHYHQGRUIRRG
3HRSOHDUHGLQJLQWKLVHDUGXHWR
'R RX IROORZ VRFLDO GLVWDQFLQJ ZKLOH JRLQJ RXWVLGH
'RRXXVHVDQLWL]HUVZKLOHJRLQJRXWVLGH
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

36. ϯϭ
'RRXWKLQNWKHµ'(/+,02'(/¶VKRXOGEHXVHGERWKHUVWDWHVWRWDFNOHWKLVSDQGHPLF
RYLG
RXOGLWEHSRVVLEOHWKDWWKHHFRQRPLFFULVLVZLOOLQFUHDVHZLWKDQLQFUHDVHLQWKHFDVHVRIRYLG
$UHRXVDWLVILHGZLWKWKHUHOLHISDFNDJHSURYLGHGEWKHFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQWGXULQJRYLG
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

37. ϯϮ
,QFUHDVHLQSDQLFEXLQJLVGXHWR
,VWKHUHDQFKDQJHLQWKHFRQVXPSWLRQSDWWHUQRIWKHSXEOLFIURPQRUPDOJRRGVWRVDQLWDWLRQ
DQGKJLHQHUHODWHGSURGXFWV
7KHUH LV DQ LQFUHDVH LQ WKH GHPDQG IRU HOHFWULFDO JDGJHWV GXULQJ RYLG
$VSHUWKHGDWDFROOHFWHGWKURXJKWKHRQOLQHTXHVWLRQQDLUHDSDUWRIWKHFKDQJHLQEHKDYLRUDODWWLWXGHLV
FHUWDLQDQGLWZLOOOHDGWRVWUXFWXUDOFKDQJHVLQWKHZDZHOLYHZRUNDQGSXUFKDVHVSHQGLQJFKRLFHV
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

38. ϯϯ
7KHUHVHHPVDFKDQJHLQWKHSULRULWLHVRIFXVWRPHUVZKLFKLVIRFXVHGRQEDVLFHVVHQWLDOUHTXLUHPHQWV
ZKHDW ULFH PLON DQG YHJHWDEOHV KJLHQH DQG VDQLWDWLRQEDVHG SURGXFWV 7KRXJK QRQHVVHQWLDO
SURGXFWVOLNHFORWKLQJIRRWZHDUDQFRVPHWLFVHWFWHQGWRVKRZDVKULQNLQJSRVLWLRQRQVXPHUVSUHIHU
WR FRQVXPH ORFDO SURGXFWV DV WKH WUHDW WKHP DV D PRUH VXVWDLQDEOH RSWLRQ $FFHQWXUH FRQVXPHU
UHVHDUFK 1RWRQOWKHFRQVXPSWLRQSDWWHUQLVDOWHUHGEXWDOVRGLJLWDOSODWIRUPVDUHXVHGIRU
VKRSSLQJLH)OLSNDUW$PD]RQWKHRIILFLDOZHEVLWHRISURGXFWVVRFLDOPHGLDHWF,WZLOOUHGXFHWKH
WUDGLWLRQDOPRGHRIVKRSSLQJ RIIOLQH GXHWRUXOHVRIVRFLDOGLVWDQFLQJRUPRUHDSSURSULDWHOSKVLFDO
GLVWDQFLQJ'LIIHUHQWDSSVDUHWUHQGDQGSRSXODUDPRQJWKHSXEOLFDWODUJHIRUHQWHUWDLQPHQWSXUSRVHV
WRIXOILOOHGXFDWLRQDOQHHGVWRIXOILOOKHDOWKUHTXLUHPHQWVQHZVHWF
$WWKLVMXQFWXUHWKHUHLVDQXUJHQWQHHGWRXQGHUVWDQGQHZPRGHOVIRUILUPVWKDWZLOOSODDQLPSRUWDQW
SDUWLQWKHEHQHILWV DQG ORVVHVRIILUPV7KLVSDQGHPLFKDV H[SRVHGWKHFXOWXUH RIEXLQJOX[XULHV
FRPSOH[LWLQPDUNHWVDQGGHPHULWVRIWUDGHGHSHQGHQFLHVIRUQHFHVVLWSURGXFWVZKLFKDUHQRWUHTXLUHG
HYHQIRUGDLOOLIH$QHZDVSHFWDQGQHZSHUFHSWLRQUHJDUGLQJFRQVXPHUEHKDYLRUKDYHWDNHQWKHIURQW
VHDWLQWKLVSDQGHPLF7KHUHLVDQHHGWRUHWKLQNUHIUDPHDQGUHGHVLJQWKHSUHVHQWFRQVXPHUEHKDYLRU
PRGHOVFRQFHUQLQJWKLVSDQGHPLF29,'DQGLWVDSSOLFDELOLWHYHQLQQRUPDOWLPHVWRR
1RZZHKDYHWRIRFXVRQWKHVHSRLQWVLQOLWWOHGHWDLO
0RUHWKDQRIWKHSXEOLFDWODUJHIROORZFRPPRQLQVWUXFWLRQVSURYLGHGE:+2DQGRWKHUPLQLVWULHV
OLNHZDVKLQJKDQGVUHJXODUOZHDULQJPDVNVXVLQJVDQLWL]HUVIROORZVRFLDOGLVWDQFLQJOHVVHURXWVLGH
YHQGRUIRRGFRQVXPSWLRQUHGXFHGFHOHEUDWLRQVRXWVLGHWDNLQJZDUPZDWHUHWF7KHTXHVWLRQQHHGVWR
EHDGGUHVVHGKHUHWKDWZKDWLVWKHODFNEHKLQGLWZHDOODUHXQDEOHWRVHHIRULQFUHDVLQJWKHFDVHV29,'
SDQGHPLFH[SRQHQWLDOO%DGRSWLQJWKHVWUDWHJRIUDSLGWHVWLQJRI29,'SURYLGLQJR[LPHWHU
WR DOO SDWLHQWV RI KRPH LVRODWLRQ RSWLPXP KRVSLWDO UHVRXUFH XWLOL]DWLRQ SURPRWH KRPH LVRODWLRQ
SURYLGLQJDQWLJHQWHVWVNLWVZLWKWKHVXSSRUWRIWKHFHQWHULQFUHDVLQJWKHQXPEHURIEHGVLQKRVSLWDOVUHDO
WLPHLQIRUPDWLRQRQEHGDYDLODELOLWLQFUHDVLQJWKHVWUHQJWKRIDPEXODQFHVVHWWLQJXSRI3ODVPD%DQN
LQWKHFRXQWUDQGGLUHFWSXEOLFHQJDJHPHQWEWKHKLHI0LQLVWHU'HOKLFDQFRQWUROWKHVHYHULWRI
LQFUHDVLQJFDVHVRI29,'%XWLIZHIRFXVRQWKHWDOORIRWKHUVWDWHVDQG,QGLDFRXQWUDVDZKROH
WKHFDVHVRI29,'DUHLQFUHDVLQJDWDQLQFUHDVLQJUDWH0DEHRWKHUVWDWHVVXIIHUIURPSRRUKHDOWK
LQIUDVWUXFWXUHZKLFKEHFRPHVUHVSRQVLEOHIRULQFUHDVLQJFDVHV3HRSOHDUHQRWWDNLQJDOOPHDVXUHVDQG
IROORZLQJDOOJXLGHOLQHVJLYHQEWKHKHDOWKPLQLVWURI,QGLDDQG:+2DVZHOOLQRWKHUVWDWHV:HFDQ¶W
SXWWKHZKROHEODPHRQDXWKRULWLHVXQWLOZHDUHJHQXLQHOIROORZLQJDOOUXOHVSUHVFULEHG
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

39. ϯϰ
$SSUR[LPDWHORISHRSOHDUHQRWVDWLVILHGZLWKWKHUHOLHISDFNDJHSURYLGHGE)LQDQFH0LQLVWHU
1LUPDOD6LWKDUDPDQDUHQRWVXUHDERXWWKHEHQHILWVRIWKHSDFNDJHRIIHUHG6RZKDWLVWKHDSSDUHQW
FDXVH EHKLQG WKLV GLVVDWLVIDFWLRQ ZKHQ D KXJH DPRXQW RI ODNK FURUHV LV DOORFDWHG WR WDFNOH WKH
FRURQDYLUXV ORFNGRZQ SHULRG 7KH 3XEOLF 'LVWULEXWLRQ 6VWHP LV ZRUNLQJ VPRRWKO DQG WKH
LQWURGXFWLRQRI$DGKDDUKDVHQVXUHGHIILFLHQFDQGUHGXFHGOHDNDJHVLIDQ2SHQLQJRIEDQNDFFRXQWV
KHOSVIDUPHUV(3)3UDGKDQ0DQWUL8MMZDODRMDQDEHQHILFLDULHVEHQHILFLDULHVRIPHGLFDOLQVXUDQFH
DQG0DKDWPD*DQGKL1DWLRQDO5XUDO(PSORPHQW*XDUDQWHH6FKHPH 0*15(*6 ZRUNHUVWRJHWFDVK
WUDQVIHUVHDVLO+HUHWKHTXHVWLRQLVZKDWDERXWWKRVHZKRGRQ¶WKDYH-DQ'KDQDFFRXQWVOLNHGDLO
IRRWSDWKYHQGRUVSDNRUDZDOODHWF:KDWDERXWWKRVHLQGLYLGXDOVZKRDUHSXWWLQJLQEDFNZDUGDUHDVDQG
UHPRWHUHJLRQVWKDWGRQ¶WKDYHDQEDQNLQJIDFLOLWLHV6PDOOEXVLQHVVHVFDQ¶WEHVDYHGIURPWKLVSDFNDJH
DVWKHPLJKWVKXWGRZQWKHLUEXVLQHVVHVEHFDXVHWKHFDQ¶WKROGLWVXIILFLHQWO7KHUHLVDQHHGWRSURYLGH
VPDOOEXVLQHVVSDFNDJHSURJUDPV7KLVUHOLHISDFNDJHGHSLFWVLQVHQVLWLYLWWRPDFURHFRQRPLFSURFHVVHV
WKRXJK LW IXUQLVKHV D VHQVH RI UHDOLVWLF ILJXUH RXWZDUGO 0DFURHFRQRPLF LPSOLFDWLRQV RI WKLV UHOLHI
SDFNDJHDUHLJQRUHGEWKHJRYHUQPHQWEHIRUHLWVGHFODUDWLRQ,IWKHUHZLOOEHDQLQFUHDVHLQWKHVXSSO
RIVWDSOHVZKDWZLOOEHLWVLPSDFWRQWKHLUPDUNHWSULFHV,WZLOOXOWLPDWHOOHDGWRWKHFUDVKLQJRIPDUNHW
SULFHVDQGWKHIDOOLQJRILQFRPHRIIDUPHUV6HFRQGOWKHQHJDWLYHLPSDFWRIWKLVSDQGHPLFZLOOQRWEH
UHGXFHGDIWHUWKUHHPRQWKVDVSUHGLFWHGEWKHILQDQFHPLQLVWHULWFDQKDYHDQLPSDFWRIPRUHWKDQDHDU
RUORQJHU7KHPRWLYHRIWKHJRYHUQPHQWWRUHOHDVHWKHSHQGLQJGXHVWR0*15(*6ZRUNHUVUDWKHUWKDQ
DQQRXQFLQJDQLQFUHDVHLQZDJHUDWHIURP$SULOWRERRVWDJJUHJDWHGHPDQGWRDVORZGRZQFULVLV7KH
PDLQGLVDGYDQWDJHVDUHIDFHGEPLJUDQWZRUNHUVDVWKHUHLVQRSURSHUSURYLVLRQIRUQDWLRQZLGHSRUWDEOH
UDWLRQFDUGVVRWKHDUHOHIWRXWIURPIRRGVFKHPHVDQGDQEHQHILWVSURYLGHGEDXWKRULWLHV/RQJWHUP
SODQVDUHUHTXLUHGWRUDLVHLQFRPHDQGDJJUHJDWHGHPDQGWRFKDQQHOL]HWKHHFRQRPLFSURFHVV 7KLV
SDQGHPLFSDFNDJHLVMXVWOLNHWULQJWRSURWHFWWKHSDWLHQWZLWKSKVLFDOH[HUFLVHZKRLVRQYHUJHRI
FDUGLDFDUUHVW5HOLHISDFNDJHVDUHLQWHULPEXWVRFLDOSURWHFWLRQSURJUDPVDUHHWHUQDODQGWKHDXWKRULWLHV
DUHEDIIOHGEHWZHHQWKHVHWZRDVSHFWVRIGLVWULEXWLRQ
81(03/20(17$1')22',16(85,7
$VSHUHQWUDOIRU0RQLWRULQJ,QGLDQ(FRQRPPLOOLRQVDODULHGSHRSOHORVWWKHLUMREVLQ-XO,Q$SULO
WKHUHZDVDORVVRIPLOOLRQVDODULHGMREV7KHUHZDVDORVVRIPLOOLRQDQGPLOOLRQ
MREVLQ0DDQG-XQHUHVSHFWLYHO$QLQFUHDVHLQGHDWKLVGXHWR29,'DQGKXQJHUDV
GHSLFWHGLQWKHUHVXOWVPHQWLRQHGDERYH/RVVRIMREVWROOVDZDPDQLQQRFHQWOLYHVRIWKHFRXQWU
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

40. ϯϱ
6WDWHRI)RRG6HFXULWDQG1XWULWLRQLQWKH:RUOG5HSRUWLVSXEOLVKHGHDUOZKLFKGHSLFWVFULWLFDO
IXUQLVKLQJRIWKHGDWDUHJDUGLQJKXQJHUDQGIRRGLQVHFXULWLQWKHZRUOG0DQHVWLPDWHVJLYHQLQWKLV
UHSRUW ZKLFK ZHUH SXEOLVKHG E VHYHUDO 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV RUJDQL]DWLRQV GHSLFW WKDW IRRG LQVHFXULW LV
FRQWLQXRXVO LQFUHDVLQJ LQ ,QGLD IURP WR FURUH PRUH SHRSOH ZHUH OLYLQJ ZLWK IRRG
LQVHFXULWLQZKHQFRPSDUHGWRVWDWLVWLFV$VSHUWKHRQOLQHGDWDFROOHFWLRQSHRSOHDOVRKDYH
SRLQWHG RXW LQ WKHLU RSLQLRQ UHJDUGLQJ WKH FDXVH RI GHDWK LV QRW RQO 29,' EXW KXQJHU DOVR
$FFRUGLQJ WR WKH HVWLPDWHV DQG RI ,QGLD V SRSXODWLRQ ERUH WKH VHYHULW RI IRRG
LQVHFXULWLQDQGUHVSHFWLYHOFURUHDQGFURUHVRIWKHSRSXODWLRQZHUH
IRRGLQVHFXUHLQDQGUHVSHFWLYHO:LWKWKHRXWEUHDNRI29,'WKHVHYHULWRI
IRRGLQVHFXULWLVLQFUHDVLQJOLNHILUHLQWKHMXQJOHDVGXULQJWKLVSDQGHPLFSHULRGSHRSOHDUHORVLQJMREV
%RWKXQHPSORPHQWDQGIRRGLQVHFXULWWRVRPHH[WHQWDUHFRUUHODWHGZLWKHDFKRWKHU5LVLQJIRRG
LQVHFXULWLVDFOHDULQGLFDWLRQRIHFRQRPLFVORZGRZQGXULQJWKLVSHULRGZKLFKFDQEHWHUPHGDVDQ
DJULFXOWXUHFULVLVGHFOLQLQJLQYHVWPHQWVLQGLIIHUHQWVHFWRUVDQGILQDOODVOXPSLQWKHMREPDUNHW7KH
XQHPSORPHQWUDWHLVDOOWLPHKLJKZKHQFRPSDUHGWRWKHODVWIRXUGHFDGHVDVSHUWKHGDWDUHOHDVHGE
WKH3HULRGLF/DERU)RUFH6XUYH*RRGVDQGVHUYLFHVWD[DQGGHPRQHWL]DWLRQVHHPHGWREHWKHPDLQ
UHDVRQ IRU WKLV HFRQRPLF VORZGRZQ :LWK WKH RXWEUHDN RI WKLV SDQGHPLF 29,' WKHUH ZHUH
ORFNGRZQVLWXDWLRQVWKDWIXUWKHUDJJUDYDWHWKHVHLVVXHVRIIRRGLQVHFXULWDQGKXQJHU$PDMRUSDUWRI
,QGLD¶VSRRULVHQFRXQWHUHGZLWKDULVLQJIRRGFULVLVWKDWXOWLPDWHOUHVXOWVLQVWDUYDWLRQKXQJHUDQG
GHDWK7KHPHGLDKDVDOVRGHSLFWHGDQGIXUQLVKHGVHYHUDOUHSRUWVUHJDUGLQJWKHVWDUYDWLRQGHDWKVRISRRU
SHRSOH,WLVDQXUJHQWFDOOIRUWKHDXWKRULWLHVWRFRQGXFWIDLUDQGUHOLDEOHQDWLRQDOVXUYHVLQXUEDQDVZHOO
DVUXUDOOHYHOVRQIRRGLQVHFXULWWRJUDVSWKHDFWXDOVLWXDWLRQRI29,'RQIRRGLQVHFXULWRIGLIIHUHQW
VHFWLRQVRIWKHSRSXODWLRQ
21/86,21
7KLVUHVHDUFKIRFXVHVRQEHKDYLRUDOFKDQJHVRIDFRQVXPHUGXULQJSDQGHPLF29,'DQGDOVRWULHV
WRIXUQLVKWKHVLWXDWLRQRIXQHPSORPHQWDQGIRRGLQVHFXULW7KHUHVXOWILQGLQJVGHSLFWWKDWWKHUHLVD
FKDQJHLQFRQVXPSWLRQSDWWHUQVGXHWREHKDYLRUDOFKDQJHVLQWKHHUDRI29,'0RUHIRFXVLVJLYHQ
RQQHFHVVLWJRRGVEDVLFQHHGVKJLHQHVDQLWDWLRQDQGGLJLWDOSODWIRUPLQWKLVSHULRGRIWKHSDQGHPLF
$PRXQWRIVSHQGLQJDQGSDWWHUQRIVSHQGLQJFKDQJHZLWKWKHRXWEUHDNRI29,'7KHUHVXOWILQGLQJV
DOVRVWDWHWKDWWKHUHLVDQHHGWRUHPDSDQGUHRUJDQL]HWKHUHOLHISDFNDJHSURYLGHGE)LQDQFH0LQLVWHU
IRULWVPRUHSUDFWLFDOEDVLVDQGPRUHHPSKDVLVVKRXOGEHJLYHQWRWKHXSOLIWPHQWRIJURXQGOHYHOSHRSOH
7KHPDWWHURIFRQFHUQLQWKLVSDQGHPLFLVWRFUHDWHGHPDQGDQGGHPDQGLVFUHDWHGESURYLGLQJDVWLPXOXV
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

41. ϯϲ
SDFNDJHWKDWGLUHFWOZLOOJHQHUDWHWKHGHPDQGIRUJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHVLQWKHPDUNHW0RUHUHOLHISDFNDJHV
VKRXOGEHDOORFDWHGWRWKHPLJUDQWZRUNHUVZRUNLQJIDUPHUVWKHXQGHUSULYLOHJHGSHRSOHDQGWKRVH
HQJDJHGLQXQRUJDQL]HGVHFWRUV7KHVWXGDOVRGHSLFWVWKHZRUVHQLQJFRQGLWLRQRIXQHPSORPHQWDORQJ
ZLWKLQFUHDVLQJIRRGLQVHFXULWZKLFKEULQJVVWDUYDWLRQKXQJHUDQGGHDWKRIGHSULYHGSHRSOH$QDWLRQDO
VXUYHVKRXOGEHFRQGXFWHGEWKHJRYHUQPHQWUHJDUGLQJIRRGLQVHFXULWWRHVWLPDWHWKHFRUUHFWQXPEHU
RISHRSOHZKRDUHIRRGLQVHFXUHDQGFRPHXQGHUWKHVWDUYDWLRQVWDJH7KHUHLVDQHHGWRILQGRXWWKH
UHDVRQVIRUVWDUYDWLRQLIWKHSULPHUHDVRQLVXQHPSORPHQWLWVKRXOGEHWDFNOHGLQWHOOLJHQWODQGZLWK
FRQFUHWHHIIRUWVXQGHUWDNHQRQWKHSDUWRIWKHJRYHUQPHQW
5()(5(1(6
$FFHQWXUH +RZ 29,' ZLOO SHUPDQHQWO FKDQJH FRQVXPHU EHKDYLRU
KWWSVZZZDFFHQWXUHFRPBDFQPHGLD3')$FFHQWXUH29,'3XOVH6XUYH5HVHDUFK
3R9SGI
)ODWWHUV3DQG:LOOPRWW0 8QGHUVWDQGLQJWKHSRVWUHFHVVLRQFRQVXPHU+DUYDUG%XVLQHVV
5HYLHZ ±
9DODVNRYD..UDPDURYD. %DUWRVRYD9 0XOWLFULWHULDPRGHOVXVHGLQWKH6ORYDN
FRQVXPHUPDUNHWIRUEXVLQHVVGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ3URFHGLD(FRQRPLFVDQG)LQDQFH±
KWWSVGRLRUJV± ±
:RUOG +HDOWK 2UJDQLVDWLRQ :+2 :+2 RURQDYLUXV 'LVHDVH 29,' 'DVKERDUG
*HQHYD:+2
KWWSVVFUROOLQDUWLFOHFRYLGSDFNDJHLWVOLNHWULQJWRFXUHSDWLHQWRQYHUJHRI
FDUGLDFDUUHVWZLWKSKVLFDOH[HUFLVH
KWWSVWKHSULQWLQWDONSRLQWPRGLJRYWVJDUHHENDODQGRHVLQGLDKDYHWKHDELOLWWRGHOLYHUDPLG
29,'ORFNGRZQ
KWWSVZZZRXWORRNLQGLDFRPFGQDPSSURMHFWRUJYVZZZRXWORRNLQGLDFRPZHEVLWHDPSLQGLD
QHZVGHOKLVILJKWDJDLQVW29,'WKLVLVKRZNHMULZDOJRYWKDVVKRZQWKH
ZDXVTS PT$4).$*Z$6$' DPSBMVBY DRK UHIHUUHU
KWWSV$))ZZZJRRJOHFRP DPSBWI )URPV DPSVKDUH KWWSV$)
)ZZZRXWORRNLQGLDFRP)ZHEVLWH)VWRU)LQGLDQHZVGHOKLVILJKWDJDLQVWFRYLGWKLV
LVKRZNHMULZDOJRYWKDVVKRZQWKHZD)
KWWSVZZZXQLFHIRUJUHSRUWVVWDWHRIIRRGVHFXULWDQGQXWULWLRQ
KWWSPRVSLQLFLQ3HULRGLF/DERXU6XUYHV
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

42. 3XEOLVKHU(OLYD3UHVV65/
(PDLOLQIR#HOLYDSUHVVFRP
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

43. (OLYD 3UHVV LV DQ LQGHSHQGHQW SXEOLVKLQJ KRXVH HVWDEOLVKHG IRU WKH
SXEOLFDWLRQ DQG GLVVHPLQDWLRQ RI DFDGHPLF ZRUNV DOO RYHU WKH ZRUOG
RPSDQ SURYLGHV KLJK TXDOLW DQG SURIHVVLRQDO VHUYLFH IRU DOO RI RXU
DXWKRUV
2XU6HUYLFHV
)UHHRIFKDUJHRSHQPLQGHGHFRIULHQGOLQQRYDWLRQDO
)UHHVWDQGDUGSXEOLVKLQJVHUYLFHV PDQXVFULSWUHYLHZVWHSEVWHSERRN
SUHSDUDWLRQSXEOLFDWLRQGLVWULEXWLRQDQGPDUNHWLQJ
1R ILQDQFLDO ULVN 7KH DXWKRU LV QRW REOLJHG WR SD DQ KLGGHQ IHHV IRU
SXEOLFDWLRQ
(GLWRUV'HGLFDWHG HGLWRUVZLOODVVLVWVWHSEVWHS WKURXJK WKHSURMHFWV
0RQH SDLG WR WKH DXWKRU IRU HYHU ERRN VROG 8S WR URDOWLHV
JXDUDQWHHG
,6%1 ,QWHUQDWLRQDO6WDQGDUG%RRN1XPEHU :H DVVLJQ DXQLTXH,6%1
WRHYHU(OLYD3UHVVERRN
'LJLWDODUFKLYHVWRUDJH%RRNVZLOOEHDYDLODEOHRQOLQHIRUDORQJWLPH:H
GRQ WQHHGWRKDYHDVWRFNRIRXUWLWOHV1RXQVROGFRSLHV(OLYD3UHVVXVHV
HQYLURQPHQWIULHQGOSULQWRQGHPDQGWHFKQRORJWKDWOLPLWVWKHQHHGVRI
SXEOLVKLQJ EXVLQHVV :H FDUH DERXW HQYLURQPHQW DQG VKDUH WKHVH
SULQFLSOHVZLWKRXUFXVWRPHUV
RYHU GHVLJQ RYHU DUW LV GHVLJQHG E D SURIHVVLRQDO GHVLJQHU
:RUOGZLGHGLVWULEXWLRQ:HFRQWLQXHH[SDQGLQJRXUGLVWULEXWLRQFKDQQHOV
WRPDNHVXUHWKDWDOOUHDGHUVKDYHDFFHVVWRRXUERRNV
ZZZHOLYDSUHVVFRP
e
-
v
e
r
s
i
o
n