Nokia is a significantly undervalued turnaround story & will see significant upside over the next 12 - 24 months in its' stock price.

1.
Nokia- a significantly
under-valued turnaround
1
Private & Confidential

2. A"er
twelve
years
in
European
Equi4es
in
London
&
NYC,
realizing
the
trough
of
the
US
housing
market
had
been
reached,
I
le"
finance
in
Q2
2012
to
create
and
deploy
a
Limited
Partnership
purchasing,
renova4ng
&
leasing
out
distressed
houses
in
the
South
East
US.
During
this
4me
outside
the
mainstream
world
of
finance,
I
have
developed
a
strong
framework
to
extract
value
added
insight
and
ideas
from
non-­‐
mainstream
resources.
The
growth
of
big
data
&
social
media
has
led
to
the
con4nuous
flow
of
remarkable
insight
&
informa4on
flow
as
pertains
to
all
industries
&
businesses.
The
scope
to
leverage
these
non-­‐mainstream
resources
to
add
value
to
stock
market
investors
is
fascina4ng
in
its’
poten4al.
It
was
through
looking
at
certain
social
media
metrics,
I
no4ced
a
strong
up4ck
in
indicators
of
consumer
trac4on
of
the
Nokia
Lumia
range.
Combining
my
background
in
equi4es
with
non-­‐mainstream
resources
,
I
did
a
deep
dive
into
the
investment
case
which
is
presented
here.
Nokia
is
significantly
undervalued
&
mis-­‐understood
as
evidence
of
the
turnaround
in
smart
phones
is
growing.
The
August
22nd,
2013
announcement
that
Delta
is
conver4ng
its’
en4re
fleet’s
air
aUendants
to
use
Lumia
820
in-­‐flight
is
the
4p
of
the
iceberg
for
the
enterprise
segment.
I
am
invested
in
Nokia.
Please
feel
free
to
contact
me
directly
at
info@genesishousingfund.com
or
on
+1
646
509
6316
to
discuss
this
or
other
ideas
have
developed.
Shyam
Kumar,
August
22nd,
2013
2

3. LEGAL DISCLAIMER
• THIS IS NOT AN OFFERING OR THE SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO PURCHASE AN
INTEREST IN GENESIS HOUSING FUND, L.P. (THE FUND ). ANY SUCH OFFER OR
SOLICITATION WILL ONLY BE MADE TO QUALIFIED INVESTORS BY MEANS OF A
CONFIDENTIAL PRIVATE PLACEMENT MEMORANDUM (THE MEMORANDUM ) AND ONLY
IN THOSE JURISDICTIONS WHERE PERMITTED BY LAW. AN INVESTMENT SHOULD ONLY
BE MADE AFTER CAREFUL REVIEW OF THE FUND S MEMORANDUM. THE INFORMATION
HEREIN IS QUALIFIED IN ITS ENTIRETY BY THE INFORMATION IN THE MEMORANDUM.
• AN INVESTMENT IN THE FUND IS SPECULATIVE AND INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WITHDRAWAL, REDEMPTION AND TRANSFERABILITY OF
INTERESTS ARE RESTRICTED, SO INVESTORS MAY NOT HAVE ACCESS TO CAPITAL
WHEN IT IS NEEDED. THERE IS NO SECONDARY MARKET FOR THE INTERESTS AND
NONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. NO ASSURANCE CAN BE GIVEN THAT THE
INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE WILL BE ACHIEVED OR THAT AN INVESTOR WILL RECEIVE A
RETURN OF ALL OR ANY PORTION OF HIS OR HER INVESTMENT IN THE FUND.
INVESTMENT RESULTS MAY VARY SUBSTANTIALLY OVER ANY GIVEN TIME PERIOD.
• CERTAIN DATA CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON INFORMATION OBTAINED FROM
SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE ACCURATE, BUT WE CANNOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY
OF SUCH INFORMATION.
• REFERENCES TO SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC LOCATIONS AND PROPERTIES LOCATED
THEREIN ARE PRESENTED TO ILLUSTRATE THE APPLICATION OF OUR INVESTMENT
PHILOSOPHY ONLY AND ARE NOT INTENDED TO BE CONSIDERED RECOMMENDATIONS
BY SHYAM REAL ESTATE, LLC. THE SPECIFIC LOCATIONS AND PROPERTIES IDENTIFIED
AND DESCRIBED IN THIS PRESENTATION DO NOT REPRESENT PROPERTIES ACTUALLY
PURCHASED, SOLD OR RECOMMENDED FOR THE FUND, AND IT SHOULD NOT BE
ASSUMED THAT INVESTMENTS IN THE PROPERTIES IDENTIFIED WILL BE PROFITABLE. 3

4. Nokia: Severely Undervalued Turnaround
• Nokia
Devices
&
Services
&
Patent
Por5olio
trades
for
ZERO
VALUE
in
current
Nokia
market
cap
of
E11bn
• Excessively
bearish
senAment
towards
company
due
to
significant
historic
under-­‐
performance
• Market
not
recognizing
huge
opAonality
embedded
in
Nokia’s
Device
business
becoming
a
credible
player
in
Smart
Phones
from
current
low
3.3%
global
m/s
• It
is
already
happening:
Lumia
520
is
tracking
as
a
blockbuster
product.
Lumia
1020
has
the
best
smartphone
camera
technology
&
augmented
reality
mapping
on
the
market.
• Windows
Phone
eco-­‐system
had
only
3.9%
of
Global
Smart
Phone
Market
Share
in
Q2
according
to
IDC.
Huge
opportunity
to
gain
market
share
as
Windows
Phone
OS
catches
up
&
Nokia
drives
hardware
performance
• Global
Smart
Phones
Volumes
in
Q2
+50%,
growth
is
in
low
to
mid
end
and
emerging
markets,
Nokia’s
key
foot
print.
• Microso[
has
installed
base
of
1.5bn
customers,
Nokia
1.3bn;
Required
conversion
rates
of
exisAng
installed
base
to
Windows
Phone
OS
to
gain
meaningful
market
share
is
very
low
4

5. Nokia: Severely Undervalued Turnaround
• Nokia’s
Main
Businesses
Under-­‐Appreciated
&
Undervalued
• NSN:
Siemens
50%
stake
bought
at
E1.7bn
a
steal.
Valuing
NSN
at
0.7x
EV/
Sales
E8.5bn.
• Ericsson
has
E30bn
mkt
cap
&
only
twice
sales
base
as
NSN,
similar
Q2
margin
• HERE:
Mapping
is
new
growth
area
&
is
increasingly
embedded
into
search.
It
is
point
of
differenAaAon
between
operaAng
systems.
• HERE
business
created
by
$8.1bn
Navteq
Deal
in
2007.
Very
low
profit
margins
as
spending
90%
of
Sales
on
R&D.
• R&D
spend
is
a
GOOD
thing
given
scope
for
HERE
to
forge
ahead
in
mapping
segment.
Nokia
HERE
augmented
reality
mapping
available
through
its
City
Lens
app
is
amazing
&
an
under-­‐appreciated
technological
breakthrough.
At
Lumia
1020
presentaAon,
a[er
camera
its
mapping
was
next
most
focused
on
differenAator
by
CEO
Elop.
•
HERE
is
one
of
3
global
mapping
libraries
at
a
Ame
when
mapping
is
growing
as
point
of
differenAaAon.
Waze
a
start
up
just
purchased
for
$1bn
by
Google.
Yet
sell
side
SOTP
only
values
HERE
at
a
paltry
E0.5bn.
• Patents:
Nokia
spent
E4bn
on
R&D
last
year,
15%
of
sales.
One
of
Largest
Global
R&D
spenders
in
any
industry
5

6. Nokia: Severely Undervalued Turnaround
• Patent
porMolio,
under
appreciated.
Nokia
has
significant
patent
por5olio
with
average
life
of
13.8
years
earning
at
present
E500m+
per
annum.
• Envision
IP
esAmates
20,000
internaAonal
patents,
16,000
US
Patents
• ConservaAve
EsAmated
value
E4bn
+.
Nortel
Networks
Patents
sold
for
$4.5bn,
Motorola
Mobility
arguably
patent
driven
deal
at
$12bn
• Cash:
Q2
13
E4.1bn
net
cash,
post
NSN
compleAon
&
extra
cash
burn
esAmate
E2bn
at
Q3
13
• Devices
&
Services:
E11bn
sales,
at
0.3x
Sales
=
E3.3bn.
ValuaAon
for
Devices
set
to
EXPLODE
as
Nokia
gains
share
in
Smart
phone
in
next
12
–
18
months.
• Xiaomi,
Chinese
android
smart
phone
maker
valued
$10bn
yet
forecast
sell
20m
units
in
2013
only,
3
years
old
&
China
centric.
• NSN
+
HERE
+
Net
Cash=
E11.5bn
or
current
NOKIA
market
cap
Patent
PorMolio
&
Devices
business
in
there
for
ZERO
Market
is
pricing
Nokia
&
Windows
Phones
as
all
out
failure,
when
in
fact
it
will
be
posAng
100%+
YoY
volume
growth
in
Lumia
smart
phones
in
H2
6

7. Device & Services: The Big Delta
• The
mulA-­‐billion
dollar
quesAon
is
whether
the
Nokia
-­‐
Microso[
Partnership
can
establish
themselves
as
scalable
third
alternaAve
eco-­‐system
in
the
mobility
space.
• At
Q2
2013,
79%
of
all
Smartphones
shipped
were
Google’s
Android,
13%
Apple’s
IOS
and
3.9%
Windows
Phone
• Nokia
is
commined
to
Windows
Phone
OS
All
2016,
85%
of
Windows
Phones
sold
are
Nokia.
• Nokia
is
criUcal
to
MicrosoW’s
plans
to
build
out
its’
Eco-­‐System
between
PCs,
Tablets,
Xbox
&
Smartphones.
MicrosoW
has
to
gain
a
foothold
in
Mobility.
• Nokia
has
a
$300bn
market
cap
company
in
Microso[
totally
behind
them
&
needing
Windows
Phone
Eco-­‐system
to
succeed
• SymbioAc
relaAonship
between
Microso[
and
Nokia
given
co-­‐dependence.
• To
understand
Nokia’s
prospects
of
resurgence
in
Smartphones
need
to
understand
the
prospects
for
Windows
Phone
OS
as
a
credible
&
growing
third
alternaAve
OperaAng
System
for
consumers
&
business
7

8. Windows Phone OS: Network Economics
• Network
economics
very
much
at
work
as
explained
by
the
recent
paper
‘Developer
Economics
Q3:
State
of
the
Developer
NaAon’
‘Android
and
iOS
have
grown
on
the
back
of
strong
network
effects,
whereby
they
grow
stronger
with
each
user
and
developer
added
to
the
ecosystem.
Users
drive
demand
for
apps
and
hence
developers.
Developers
and
apps
drive
user
adop4on’.
• Nokia
&
Windows
Phone
are
seeking
to
catalyze
the
posiAve
dynamic
of
the
‘
network
effect.’
• Volume
growth
is
key
to
reach
‘Apping
point’
for
the
eco-­‐system
whereby
user
growth
drives
app
development
drives
consumer
appeal
drives
user
growth…
• Focus
should
be
on
market
share
&
not
ST
profits
as
seeking
to
reach
‘Apping
point’
for
eco-­‐system
&
propel
network
effects.
8

9. Windows Phone OS
• April
2011:
Nokia
under
Elop
abandoned
Nokia’s
own
Symbian
proprietary
system
Symbian
sales
purposefully
collapsed
from
7m
in
Q2
12
to
Zero
in
Q2
13.
• Windows
Phone
7
OS
launched
&
ramped
to
sell
4m
Nokia
Smartphones
in
Q2
12
• June
2012:
Windows
Phone
8
OS
announced,
however
not
backward
compaAble
to
WP7
devices.
• Lack
of
compaAbility
stalted
growth
of
Nokia
Lumia
Devices
to
2.9m
in
Q312
before
WP8
OS
launched
Q4
2012
• Nokia
sold
4.4m
Lumia
in
Q412,
5.6m
Q1
13,
7.4m
Q2
13:
AcceleraAng
volume
growth
In
last
2
years,
Nokia
has
transiAoned
through
2
problemaAc
OS,
has
it
finally
turned
the
corner
with
WP8….
9

10. Windows Phone OS
• Huge
symbiosis
between
Hardware
&
So[ware:
Nokia
Lumia
hardware
needs
to
have
an
OperaAng
System
that
not
obviously
lacking
vs..
compeAtors
• Windows
Phone
8
OS
seen
as
‘mixed’
by
customers
&
industry
analysts.
• PercepAon
is
that
Microso[
as
a
so[ware
partner
is
lagging
Nokia
as
hardware
partner
• Main
Issue
quoted
by
customers
and
carrier
sales
reps
is
lack
of
Apps
vs..
Android
&
IOS;
WP8
has
170,000
Apps
vs.
near
1m
on
rivals
OS
• WP8
not
support
quad-­‐core
processors,
1080p
hardware
(high
resoluAon
screens)
or
VPNs
(Virtual
Private
Networks).
• CompeAng
with
more
developed
eco-­‐systems,
with
already
large
installed
base
of
customers,
some
degree
of
‘lock-­‐in.’
• Other
ecosystems
have
developer
‘mind
share’
10

11. Windows Phone OS
However
Windows
Phone
operaAng
system
is
maturing
rapidly
to
catch
up
with
Android
&
IOS
which
moved
several
years
ahead
of
Microso[
• Windows
Phone
only
2
cycles
so
far
WP7
&
WP8
• Shi[
from
WP7
to
WP8
saw
much
bener
consumer
tracAon
• GDR2
being
rolled
out
currently
&
GDR3
expected
Q4
13
will
enable
Windows
Phones
to
support
quad-­‐core
&
1080p.
• WP
8.1/
Blue:
Much
anAcipated
third
version
of
the
WP
OS
expected
start
2014
• WP8.1
will
further
strengthen
enterprise
funcAonality
&
likely
spur
rapid
adopAon
of
WP8.1
based
Smart
phones
&
tablets
by
business
• Desktop
/
Laptop
funcAonality
on
tablets
&
smart
phones
powerful
for
enterprise
segment
as
users
can
do
‘real
work’
on
them.
Help
grow
the
Microso[
eco-­‐system
11

12. Windows Phone OS: Apps
• Apps
are
area
of
shor5all
given
gap
between
WP
&
Android
&
IOS.
• WP
170,000
apps
vs.
iOS
800,000,
Android
1m.
Largest
barrier
to
adopAon
for
WP
• Most
concern
is
centered
around
missing
a
few
of
the
most
popular
ones,
such
as
Instagram
&
lite
versions
of
other
apps.
• Issue
is
one
of
maturity
&
scale;
once
enough
Windows
Phone
users
incenAve
for
developers
to
develop
Apps
for
WP.
At
present
incenAves
lead
to
lags
of
popular
apps
to
WP
• Chicken
and
egg:
Larger
Windows
Phone
installed
base
=
greater
app
developer
interest
=
greater
customer
appeal
=
larger
installed
base…
• PercepAon
in
Microso[
needs
to
‘step
it
up’
in
geung
developers
onto
the
WP
pla5orm.
Even
Nokia
head
of
sales
quoted
this
as
major
issue
12

13. Smart
Phone
OS
Installed
Base
–
WP
low,
needs
to
grow
to
anract
apps
13

14. Windows Phone OS: Apps
• Contrary
to
popular
percepAon
Microso[
is
not
siung
on
its’
hands
• Rate
of
App
development
for
WP
increased
from
100
per
day
start
2013
to
currently
320
per
day
• Microso[
providing
financial
incenAves
for
developers
to
create
Apps
for
WP
pla5orm
• Microso[
making
programming
easier
for
developers
to
create
apps
for
WP
• Easing
barriers
for
customers
to
purchase
apps:
30
carriers
across
20
markets
so
far
will
bill
app
purchases
direct
to
carrier
bill.
In
China
customers
can
pay
with
Aliplay
(similar
to
paypal)
• There
are
sAll
170,000
Apps
for
WP
customers,
however
key
is
to
get
major
apps
across
to
WP
pla5orm.
• UlAmately
developers
will
be
incenAvized
when
see
a
large
&
growing
pool
of
WP
smartphones
and
customers.
Reaching
that
‘criUcal
mass’
or
‘Upping
point’
is
crucial
for
virtuous
cycle
to
kick
in.
• Market
share
growth
is
crucial
to
get
app
developers
on
board.
14

15. 15
Developers
Intent
Share
bodes
well
for
Windows
Phone
OS

16. Developer
Revenue
per
OS:
WP
in
the
ball
park
of
iOS,
Android
16

17. Windows Phone OS: Huge Potential
• Considerable
potenAal
in
the
WP
pla5orm
which
Nokia
has
aligned
itself
• Microso[
HAS
to
make
it
in
mobility:
Microso[
reorg
July
2013
reshaped
organizaAon
to
have
4
divisions
to
help
capture
mobility
opportunity
• Microso[
a
gorilla
in
the
tech
space
with
$70bn
cash
pile
will
make
mobility
success
happen
as
crucial
to
own
survival
• Windows
Eco-­‐system
is
very
powerful
one
for
Nokia
to
be
aligned
on
as
principal
smart
phone
partner
• Windows
comprises
of
1.5bn
Windows
users
globally,
embedded
in
97%
of
business
organizaAons,
with
X-­‐box
One
the
eco-­‐system
will
stretch
deeper
into
consumer’s
living
rooms.
• Mobility
namely
Tablets
&
smartphones
weak
spot
for
Windows
OS
&
hence
major
focus
for
Microso[.
• BestBuy
partnership
whereby
Microso[
products
will
be
showcased
in
store
within
store
in
600
BestBuy
shops
evidence
of
Microso[
‘stepping’
up
• Carriers
want
a
credible
third
alternaAve
ecosystem
to
regain
bargaining
power:
All
3
Russian
Operators
have
stopped
selling
Apple,
Telefonica
geung
behind
WP
• IDC
reported
in
August
2013
that
WP,
2nd
most
popular
eco-­‐system
in
Latam
17

18. Windows Phone OS
• Enterprise
(Corporate)
Segment
is
major
potenAal
opportunity
for
Windows
Phone
OS
• MS
office
and
exchange
mail
built
in.
• IT
departments
can
integrate
Windows
Phones
into
Microso[
products
that
power
their
business
computers
seamlessly.
• Windows
8.1/
Blue
update
will
deepen
features
suitable
for
enterprise
such
as
VPN
• Examples
of
recent
enterprise
switches
to
Lumia
include
Britvic,
Tef
Germany,
Miele,
Mall
of
Americas.
• Delta
Airline
Deal
announced
August
2013:
every
one
of
19,000
Flight
Anendants
will
use
a
WP
Nokia
Lumia
820
in-­‐flight
to
enhance
producAvity
&
customer
service.
• Delta
Deal
is
a
huge
Ack
in
the
box
&
highlights
potenAal
of
WP
OS
to
penetrate
enterprise
segment
given
Microso[
is
part
of
DNA
of
virtually
all
businesses.
• Use
of
smart
phones
by
business
to
enhance
producAvity
is
early
in
its’
adopAon.
Windows
Phone
&
Nokia
set
to
benefit
from
this
boon
in
adopAon
by
enterprise
18

19. Nokia Lumia- Key to recovery
• Nokia
Lumia
range
encompasses
every
price
point
from
low
to
high
end
• InnovaUon
within
Lumia
range
has
been
exemplary
and
Ame
to
bring
to
market
products
from
concepAon
is
6
months
• MulAple
Lumia
products
launches
in
2013
• Lumia
520
range:
Q2
13
launched
Retails
$100
-­‐
$150,
entry
level
smartphone
with
high
end
features.
Blockbuster
product
• Lumia
620:
Mid-­‐Range,
$249
at
launch
Q1.
Asia,
Europe,
Middle
East
• Lumia
720:
Mid
Range,
$329,
Asia
launch
at
first
Q1
• Lumia
925:
High
End
Smartphone.
Launched
June
2013,
925
retails
T-­‐Mobile
US,
Aug
13
came
to
India
at
price
of
$560.
• Lumia
928:
High
end
solely
Verizon
in
US:
Similar
to
925
as
part
of
92x
pla5orm
• Lumia
1020:
Flagship
just
launched
July
16th,
only
in
US
on
AT&T,
$650
retail.
Best
camera
on
smartphone
by
far.
• Lumia
625:
Announced
July
2013,
4.7
inch
screen
big
screen,
4G,
successor
to
Lumia
620
19

20. Nokia Lumia – Key to Recovery
• Smartphone
market
saw
volume
growth
of
50%
Q2
2013,
forecast
to
near
1bn
volumes
in
2013.
• 1.2bn
installed
base
of
smart
phones
2012,
Ericsson
forecast
to
grow
to
4.5bn
in
2018,
CAGR
20%+
20

21. 21
Mobile
Subs
Growth
focused
in
Emerging
Markets
where
Nokia’s
footprint
strong

22. Nokia
Lumia-­‐
Key
to
Recovery
• Globally
+130m
net
mobile
subscripAons
growth
in
Q1,
mostly
outside
US,
Europe.
China
accounted
for
25%
of
net
addiAons.
• 50%
of
mobile
phones
sold
in
Q1
13
were
smart
phones
vs.
40%
in
2012.
• Smart
phones
account
for
20
–
25%
of
all
subscripAons
(Ericsson
June
Mobility
report),
scope
for
penetraAon
to
increase
significantly
• Nokia
large
emerging
markets
footprint
(65%
of
sales),
where
smartphone
penetraAon
low
but
growing
rapidly
• Nokia
has
an
installed
base
of
1.3bn
customers,
significant
number
in
emerging
markets
where
scope
to
upgrade
them
to
smart
phone
is
significant
• Nokia
has
a
strong
product
offering
in
the
low
to
mid
range,
segment
expect
highest
growth
rates
going
forward.
• $100
-­‐
$200
range
smartphone
market
volumes
to
double
in
2013.
Lumia
52x
range
is
in
the
sweet
spot
of
the
smartphone
market
&
is
tracking
like
a
blockbuster
product
• Nokia
focused
on
connecAng
the
‘
Next
Billion’
Smart
phone
users,
which
plays
into
emerging
market
footprint
&
asp
range
22

23. Nokia
Lumia
–
Key
to
Recovery
• Nokia
Lumia
range
is
85%
of
Windows
Phones
Sales,
the
main
driver
of
growth
of
WP
OS
23

24. Nokia
Lumia-­‐Key
to
Recovery
• Q2
2013
Lumia,
saw
32%
volume
grow
QoQ
to
7.4m
units
with
fall
in
ASPs
to
E157
from
E191
given
low
to
mid
range
growth
and
price
aggressiveness
• Nokia
focused
on
building
market
share
with
Lumia
range,
rather
than
short
term
profit
maximizing.
Network
economics
at
play
• Growth
in
the
Windows
Phone
eco-­‐system
likely
to
be
linear
unAl
a
‘criAcal
mass’
or
‘Upping
point’
is
reached
whereby
growth
can
go
parabolic.
• Virtuous
cycle:
WP
Eco-­‐system
needs
to
grow
its’
installed
base
to
trigger
virtuous
cycle.
Greater
installed
base
leads
to
greater
developer
interest,
more
apps,
anract
more
consumers,
anracts
more
apps
and
so
on.
• Market
share
Upping
point
whereby
Windows
WP
comes
a
very
credible
third
OS,
and
that
is
the
‘Apping
point’
for
sales.
At
present
WP
OS
has
3.9%
m/s
Q2
13
of
Smart
Phone,
Nokia
3.3%
of
hardware
volumes.
• Tipping
point
likely
at
8
–
10%
m/s,
likely
in
2014:
• As
investor
support
Nokia
focusing
on
market
share
growth
to
reach
Apping
point
&
grow
LT
value
rather
than
short
term
profits
24

25. 25
Smart
phone
market
shares
volaAle:
Scope
to
swing
back

26. Microso[
WP
m/s
is
low
but
scope
to
catch
up
significant
26

27. Nokia Lumia- Key to recovery
• Lumia
1020:
July
16th,
2013
Launch
• Showcase
of
technological
ability
of
Nokia;
arguably
just
made
the
most
advanced
smartphone
in
the
space
with
41
Megapixel
camera
on
the
phone.
Very
good
reviews
from
tech
community
• Bodes
very
well
for
future
Lumia
releases
as
camera
technology
will
cascade
down
into
low
&
mid
range
launches
• Augmented
Reality
mapping
is
very
innovaAve
feature
• September
2013:
Nokia
analyst
days
in
NYC
to
launch
further
products:
Phablet
Tablet?
• Pace
of
innovaAon
and
product
launches
been
quite
remarkable
at
Nokia
&
momentum
to
conAnue
into
H2.
• Nokia
moved
from
product
laggard
to
product
leader
27

28. Lumia
1020
Example
Shot
28

29. Nokia Lumia- Key to recovery
• Constraints
to
Lumia
AdopAon
need
to
be
tackled
• Brand
recogniUon
with
consumer
• Carrier
sales
forces
are
accustomed
to
selling
Android
and
I-­‐Phone
by
the
millions
inclined
to
‘sell’
potenAal
customers
on
those
OS
• Need
to
raise
knowledge
about
hardware
and
so[ware
capabiliAes
with
sales
forces
&
consumers
• FuncAon
of
adverAsing,
brand
support,
educaAon
and
incenAvizaAon
of
carrier
sales
forces.
Product
is
great,
consumers
need
to
hear
about
it.
• Get
over
the
‘App’
hump,
most
common
push
back
for
switching
to
WP
BUT
• Encouragingly
seeing
ad
support
for
Lumia
1020
from
Microso[,
Nokia
&
AT&T
• Anecdotal
evidence
of
tracAon
of
Lumia
range
is
wide
&
encouraging
• Nokia
is
focused
&
execuAng
and
innovaAng
well
29

30. Lumia 520 Blockbuster
• Amazon.com:
Lumia
520
&
521
best
sellers
at
August
9,
2013
for
no-­‐contract
phones
30

31. Amazon
China:
Lumia
520
top
smart
phone
31

32. Lumia
521:
T-­‐Mobile
Best
Seller:
Aug
9th,
2013
32

33. Lumia
1020:
AT&T
best
sellers
on
Amazon
33

34. NSN-­‐
Key
Value
Driver
• Nokia
SoluAons
Network:
Mobile
communicaAon
infrastructure
&
enabler
of
mobile
broadband
• 18%
of
global
telco
infrastructure
market
• Key
player
in
LTE
technology,
iniAally
being
rolled
out.
Q1
13
LTE
market
$2.7bn,
+108%
YoY.
NSN
doing
well
in
Japan,
Korea&
Australia
• Recent
4G
contract
wins
T-­‐Mobile
US,
Megafon
&
MTS
in
Russia
• Japan
&
NA
30%
of
NSN
group
sales
• Mobile
Infra
Market
Globally
$9.8bn
Q1
13
• Successful
restructuring:
OperaAng
Margin
moved
from
1%
in
2010
to
11.8%
non-­‐
IFRS
EBIT
margin
Q2
13.
Generated
E1.4bn
FCF
2012
from
slight
negaAve
in
2011
• Shedding
contracts,
&
exiAng
unprofitable
regions.
Sales
declined
18%
YoY
in
Q2,
however
underlying
growth.
• NSN
guides
to
7%
EBIT
margins,
scope
to
outperform
• Sustainable
high
FCF
generator
• Nokia
bought
Siemens
50%
stake
for
E1.7bn.
A
steal,
puung
on
0.7x
Sales,
NSN
worth
E8.5bn
34

35. NSN-­‐
Key
Value
Driver
• Mobile
Broadband
45%
group
sales,
Global
Services
over
50%
• NSN
30%
of
Services
market
amongst
top
4
vendors
• Forecast
NSN
to
generate
cumulaAve
E2bn
+
of
FCF
13/14/15
• Seen
even
bear
of
Nok
forecast
NSN
to
have
E3.5bn
net
cash
by
2015
• Ericsson
June
2013
Mobility
Report
points
to
very
strong
drivers
of
mobile
broadband
– Mobile
broadband
subscripAons
grew
45%
YoY
in
Q1
to
1.7bn
– Mobile
Data
traffic
doubled
YoY
– Mobile
Data
expected
to
grow
at
50%
CAGR
2012
–
2018,
Twelve
fold
increase
– LTE
roll
out
to
take
global
populaAon
coverage
from
10%
to
60%
by
2018
NSN
delivers
the
Telco
infrastructure
needed
to
deliver
this
data
growth
35

36. Mobile
Data
Growth
ExponenAal
36

37. Feature
Phones
• Feature
Phones:
Source
of
risk
• Q4
12
vols:
80m
phones,
Q1
13
55m,
Q2
13
53.7m.
• ASP
from
E31
(Q412)
to
E28.5
(Q113)
to
E26.2
(Q213)
• Hard
to
compete
with
Asian
manufacturers
in
volume
sector
but
Nokia
is
trying
to
move
up
value
chain
as
well
as
producing
cheap
feature
phones
e.g.
105
costs
$20,
• Asha
501
launched
end
Q2
2013.
PotenAal
winner
as
sits
at
smart
phone/
feature
phone
divide
• Risk
is
if
need
further
downsizing
&
further
restructuring
charges
• Feature
Phones
EBIT
E205m
in
H1
12
fell
to
E91m
in
H1
13
• Key
is
to
manage
decline
in
feature
phones
as
smart
phones
division
ramps
up
37

38. Nokia
Feature
Phones
&
Smart
Phones
ASP
38

39. HERE: Mapping Business
Mapping
business:
Overpaid
for
Navteq
$8.1bn
2007
however
• Mapping
is
growth
area:
HERE
saw
19%
YoY
sales
in
external
mapping
in
Q2
13
• Mapping
is
growing
source
of
differenUaUon
between
smart
phone
eco-­‐systems
&
is
integrated
increasingly
into
search
• Technology
driving
increased
uses
for
mapping
such
as
monitoring
traffic
flows
• Google’s
$1bn
acquisiAon
of
Waze
highlights
growing
value
of
mapping
assets
• HERE
is
one
of
three
global
map
libraries;
Google
Maps
&
TomTom
others
• Barriers
to
entry
for
building
global
map
database
is
very
high
• Sell
side
value
HERE
at
E0.5bn
as
very
low
profits.
3.4%
margin
Q2
13,
however
R&D/
Sales
raUo
is
90%!
InvesAng
significantly
in
mapping
technology
as
recognizes
future
value
of
segment
• HERE
Augmented
Reality
maps
are
awesome!
39

40. HERE:
Augmented
Reality
Map
40

41. Nokia
Devices
&
Services:
Key
figures
• Devices
&
Services:
Q2
saw
6%
QoQ
decline
in
revs
to
E2.7bn.
• D&S
Q2
13:
-­‐E33m
loss,
-­‐1.2%
margin.
Smart
phones
–E164m
EBIT,
-­‐
14%
margin.
• Q3
D&S
guidance
is
for
-­‐2%
margin,
+/-­‐
400
basis
points.
Expect
lower
end
of
guidance
with
losses
of
-­‐100m
–
150m
– 1)
Support
for
Lumia
roll
outs
–
2)
Price
aggressive
to
drive
market
share.
Will
sacrifice
GM
for
market
share
–
3)
Feature
Phones
‘managed
decline’
• Group
margin
forecast
3-­‐3.5%
Q3
from
5.3%
as
NSN
normalizes,
D&S
m/s
focus
• Q3:
Key
is
market
share
and
Lumia
volumes:
I
expect
10m+
from
7.4m
in
Q2
13,
2.9m
Q3
12.
• Sell
side
forecast
6.5m
-­‐8m
Lumia
sold
in
Q3,
scope
to
beat
by
wide
margin
• Short
term
focus
on
profit
metrics
WRONG
criteria
by
which
to
judge
Nokia
at
this
stage
of
transformaAon;
volume
growth
of
Lumia
&
WP
installed
base
• Q3:
Short
termist
bears
will
focus
on
quarterly
losses,
lower
GM
Vs.
Long
run
investors
recognize
growth
of
market
share
as
the
KEY
as
embeds
eco-­‐system
with
consumers.
Network
economics
at
play,
larger
installed
base,
stronger
it
grows
• Q4
13
–
Q1
13:
When
expect
operaAonal
metrics
to
inflect
41

42. Nokia
Devices
&
Services:
Key
figures
• Market
share
in
smart
phones
is
key
in
order
to
reach
‘the
Upping
point
whereby
growth
goes
from
linear
to
parabolic
• Apple
was
posAng
losses
end
2002/
early
2003
before
turnaround
• Balance
Sheet
– Q2
net
cash
E4.1bn,
post
E1.7bn
for
NSN
and
assuming
similar
cash
burn
run
rate
in
Q3
as
Q2,
net
cash
approximately
E2bn
Q3
– Expect
Q3
13
net
cash
posiAon
as
trough
given
strong
Q4
&
conAnued
recovery
in
2014
– Sell
side
forecasts
seen
for
cash
flow
range
from
E1bn
+
ve
FCF
in
2014
to
significant
cash
burn
in
2014
depending
on
if
assume
further
restructuring
charges
in
D&S.
42

43. Nokia: Cash Flow Considerations
• Cash
flow:
NSN
acquisiAon
supports
cash
generaAon
• Q213
operaAng
cash
flow
–E196m
including
E230m
of
restructuring
cash
ou5lows.
• Q213
net
cash
posiAon
reduced
E417m
• Q113
net
cash
increased
E120m
• Bears
forecast
E600m+
cash
burn
in
2013,
assumes
approximately
E300m
in
H2.
• Given
Q3
seeing
many
launches
likely
inventory
build,
market
share
focus,
expect
similar
as
Q2
reducAon
in
net
cash..E400
–
E500m.
• Q4
expect
swing
back
in
cash
generaAon
as
seasonal
effects
• 2014:
Restructuring
charges
for
NSN
declines
to
E200m,
D&S
declines
to
E50m
in
2014
• Risk
on
cash
flows
is
decline
in
Feature
phones
results
in
further
restructuring
• 2014
Forecasts
vary
widely
depending
on
view
of
WP
tracAon
&
need
for
restructuring
charges
in
feature
phones
• Assume
2014
D&S
turns
cash
flow
+ve
as
m/s
growth
hits
‘Apping
point.’
43

44. Restructuring
Charges
to
drop
off
in
2014
44

45. Restructuring
Charges
to
drop
off
in
2014
45

46. Positioning & Catalysts
• Short
Base:
14%
of
market
cap
• Sell
Side
bearish:
NSN
put
at
0.4x
Sales,
ZERO
value
anributed
to
D&S
including
patents,
assume
cash
burn
into
2014,
further
restructuring
costs,
negaAve
bias
• Sell
side
bears
will
focus
on
near
term
negaAve
operaAonal
metrics
rather
than
under
valuaAon
&
growing
eco-­‐system.
Even
Apple
was
loss
making
Q4
2002/
Q1
2003
as
transformed
business
• Catalysts
Q3
volumes
in
Lumia
will
be
strong.
Likely
hear
bear
chorus
on
fact
sacrificing
GM
to
drive
volumes
&
market
share,
strategy
as
an
investor
am
pleased
with
as
‘network
economics’
crucial
• Q4
13
-­‐
H1
14:
ConAnued
progression
of
market
share
growth,
product
launches,
WP
updates,
growth
of
app
eco-­‐system,
enterprise
wins,
NSN
delivery
will
support
stock
price
• PotenAal
value
realizing
catalysts
include
lisAng
of
part
of
NSN,
acquisiAon
of
D&S
business
as
Microso[
&
Huawei
been
rumored,
profit
generaAon
from
D&S
• This
is
a
12
–
24
month
investment
case
not
a
trade
into
quarter
numbers
46