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40 Years of Agricultural Trade, Distortions, and Policies
- 1. 40 Years of Agricultural Trade, Distortions and Policies Division Director at the Division Director of the Markets, Trade, and Institutions Division International Food Policy Research Institute Maximo Torero
- 2. Real Price Evolution in US$ 2015 0.00 500.00 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 1960M01 1961M01 1962M01 1963M01 1964M01 1965M01 1966M01 1967M01 1968M01 1969M01 1970M01 1971M01 1972M01 1973M01 1974M01 1975M01 1976M01 1977M01 1978M01 1979M01 1980M01 1981M01 1982M01 1983M01 1984M01 1985M01 1986M01 1987M01 1988M01 1989M01 1990M01 1991M01 1992M01 1993M01 1994M01 1995M01 1996M01 1997M01 1998M01 1999M01 2000M01 2001M01 2002M01 2003M01 2004M01 2005M01 2006M01 2007M01 2008M01 2009M01 2010M01 2011M01 2012M01 2013M01 2014M01 2015M01 2015USDperMetricTons Soybeans (US$/mt) SOYBEANS Maize (US$/mt) MAIZE
- 3. Periods of Excessive Volatility Note: This figure shows the results of a model of the dynamic evolution of daily returns based on historical data going back to 1954 (known as the Nonparametric Extreme Quantile (NEXQ) Model). This model is then combined with extreme value theory to estimate higher-order quantiles of the return series, allowing for classification of any particular realized return (that is, effective return in the futures market) as extremely high or not. A period of time characterized by extreme price variation (volatility) is a period of time in which we observe a large number of extreme positive returns. An extreme positive return is defined to be a return that exceeds a certain pre-established threshold. This threshold is taken to be a high order (95%) conditional quantile, (i.e. a value of return that is exceeded with low probability: 5 %). One or two such returns do not necessarily indicate a period of excessive volatility. Periods of excessive volatility are identified based a statistical test applied to the number of times the extreme value occurs in a window of consecutive 60 days. Source: Martins-Filho, Torero, and Yao 2010. See details at http://www.foodsecurityportal.org/soft-wheat-price-volatility-alert-mechanism. 2014 Please note Days of Excessive volatility for 2014 are through March 2014
- 4. Different problems but same policies
- 5. A continuous trend towards internationalization of food markets 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 18.2% 13.9% 12.3% 19.1% 16.1% Share of produced calories crossing an international border
- 6. Globalization and/or Regionalization - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Average distance (km) travelled by imported calories 1995 2000 2005 2010
- 7. Cumulative number of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) in force Note: it includes notified and non-notified PTAs by country group
- 8. Evolution by region of the price support through border measure -60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% Africa Asia Eastern Europe LAC HIC World Average Nominal Rates of Assistance (NRA) through Border Measure 1975 1985 1995 2005
- 9. … and DOHA?
- 10. But mega trade deals are becoming strategic TPP USA TTIP TISA Vietnam Brunei Singapore Malaysia Australia Canada Taiwan Japan Chile Mexico Peru South Korea New Zealand Norway Switzerland Iceland Israel Uruguay Hong Kong Costa Rica Colombia Panama Paraguay Turkey Austria Bulgaria Belgium France Czech Republic Ireland Denmark Germany Estonia Portugal Romania Poland Netherlands Lithuania UK Sweden Luxembourg Slovenia Hungary Slovenia Italy Spain Greece Finland Malta Croatia Lativia Cyprus