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Risk and Possibility
"Traditionally, risk is assessed as the product of probability
and damage. But when the damage is beyond quantification,
this process breaks down. With existential risks, learning
from mistakes is not an option, and we cannot necessarily
rely on the institutions, moral norms, or social attitudes
developed from our experience with managing other types of
risk.
What is needed now is an approach to risk management
which is fundamentally different from conventional practice. It
would focus on the high-end, unprecedented​possibilities,
instead of assessing middle-of-the-road​probabilities on the
basis of historic experience.”
--Ian Dunlop and David Spratt May 2019
From the paper: Existential Climate-Related Security Risk
Roles
And…unrolling.
“Warm Data” can be defined as:
Transcontextual information about the
interrelationships that integrate a complex
system.
The opposite of complexity is not simplicity
...It is reductionism.
The Hydra
“Darwin proposed a theory of natural selection and
evolution in which the unit of survival was either the family
line or the species or subspecies or something of the sort.
But today, it is quite obvious that this is not the unit of
survival in the real biological world. The unit of survival is
organism plus environment. We are learning by bitter
experience that the organism which destroys in its
environment destroys itself.” (G. Bateson page 491)
Where is the edge of the “self’”
--?
“At present there is no existing science
whose special interest is the combining of
pieces of information. But I shall argue that
the evolutionary process must depend upon
such double increments of information.
Every evolutionary step is an addition of
information to an already existing system.
Because this is so, the combinations,
harmonies, and discords between
successive pieces and layers of information
will present many problems of survival and
determine many directions of change.” –
G.Bateson
Criteria Warm Data
1. Observing the observer
2. Multiple description
3. Fluid patterning
4. Paradox, inconsistency and time
5. Holism and Reductionism
6. Cultural responsibility
7. Aesthetic, mood, rhythm.
What are the Patterns That Connect?
WHY WARM DATA IS
IMPORTANT
In order to interface with any a complex system without
disrupting the circuitry of the interdependencies that give it
its integrity we must look at the spread of relationships
that make the system robust.
Using only analysis of statistical data will offer conclusions
that can point to actions that are out of sync with the
complexity of the situation. Information without
interrelationality is likely to lead us toward actions that are
misinformed, thereby creating further destructive patterns.
Interconnected
Interdependent
I am a unique entity framing the world through the
only version of my filtering and sense making
processes… I am me.
There is no place in me, no aspect of me that is
uninfluenced, unconnected, or untouched by my
contexts ( language, culture, expereince,
education, genetics and so on).
I am me & I am not me.
The Paradox of Agency
Perception in context
Today’s Question
What is well-being?
….in a changing world?
Transcontextual Description
Transcontextual research presumes that no complex
system is viable in a single contextual set of relationships.
Therefore, this research requires inquiry that compares
and describes multiple contextual interdependencies.
It is difficult if not impossible to find a subject to study in
the living world that is definable within a single context.
Transcontextual research offers multiple descriptions of
the way in which a ‘subject’ is nested in many contexts.
This information provides descriptions of interactions that
seem to erase the boundaries of what we might have
previously considered to be parts and wholes.
Patterns that connect, Bertrand
Russell’s Logical Levels, Difference
that makes a difference, Multiple
description, Mutual learning and
calibration (Symmathesy), Iterative
multi-modal learning, Autopoeisis
(Varela and Maturana)
Mind (G. Bateson), Systems and
Complexity Theory, Ecology of
communication, Double Bind,
Conscious Purpose, Epistemological
frames, Change in complex systems,
Interdependency, Transcontextual
processes, Improvisation/sense-
making

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Warm Data Lab Helsinki

  • 1.
  • 2. Risk and Possibility "Traditionally, risk is assessed as the product of probability and damage. But when the damage is beyond quantification, this process breaks down. With existential risks, learning from mistakes is not an option, and we cannot necessarily rely on the institutions, moral norms, or social attitudes developed from our experience with managing other types of risk. What is needed now is an approach to risk management which is fundamentally different from conventional practice. It would focus on the high-end, unprecedented​possibilities, instead of assessing middle-of-the-road​probabilities on the basis of historic experience.” --Ian Dunlop and David Spratt May 2019 From the paper: Existential Climate-Related Security Risk
  • 5. “Warm Data” can be defined as: Transcontextual information about the interrelationships that integrate a complex system.
  • 6. The opposite of complexity is not simplicity ...It is reductionism.
  • 8. “Darwin proposed a theory of natural selection and evolution in which the unit of survival was either the family line or the species or subspecies or something of the sort. But today, it is quite obvious that this is not the unit of survival in the real biological world. The unit of survival is organism plus environment. We are learning by bitter experience that the organism which destroys in its environment destroys itself.” (G. Bateson page 491) Where is the edge of the “self’” --?
  • 9.
  • 10. “At present there is no existing science whose special interest is the combining of pieces of information. But I shall argue that the evolutionary process must depend upon such double increments of information. Every evolutionary step is an addition of information to an already existing system. Because this is so, the combinations, harmonies, and discords between successive pieces and layers of information will present many problems of survival and determine many directions of change.” – G.Bateson
  • 11. Criteria Warm Data 1. Observing the observer 2. Multiple description 3. Fluid patterning 4. Paradox, inconsistency and time 5. Holism and Reductionism 6. Cultural responsibility 7. Aesthetic, mood, rhythm.
  • 12. What are the Patterns That Connect?
  • 13. WHY WARM DATA IS IMPORTANT In order to interface with any a complex system without disrupting the circuitry of the interdependencies that give it its integrity we must look at the spread of relationships that make the system robust. Using only analysis of statistical data will offer conclusions that can point to actions that are out of sync with the complexity of the situation. Information without interrelationality is likely to lead us toward actions that are misinformed, thereby creating further destructive patterns.
  • 16. I am a unique entity framing the world through the only version of my filtering and sense making processes… I am me. There is no place in me, no aspect of me that is uninfluenced, unconnected, or untouched by my contexts ( language, culture, expereince, education, genetics and so on). I am me & I am not me. The Paradox of Agency
  • 18. Today’s Question What is well-being? ….in a changing world?
  • 19. Transcontextual Description Transcontextual research presumes that no complex system is viable in a single contextual set of relationships. Therefore, this research requires inquiry that compares and describes multiple contextual interdependencies. It is difficult if not impossible to find a subject to study in the living world that is definable within a single context. Transcontextual research offers multiple descriptions of the way in which a ‘subject’ is nested in many contexts. This information provides descriptions of interactions that seem to erase the boundaries of what we might have previously considered to be parts and wholes.
  • 20. Patterns that connect, Bertrand Russell’s Logical Levels, Difference that makes a difference, Multiple description, Mutual learning and calibration (Symmathesy), Iterative multi-modal learning, Autopoeisis (Varela and Maturana) Mind (G. Bateson), Systems and Complexity Theory, Ecology of communication, Double Bind, Conscious Purpose, Epistemological frames, Change in complex systems, Interdependency, Transcontextual processes, Improvisation/sense- making