2. Disclaimer
▪ This Presentation is a summary of Sky Petroleum Inc.’s Exploration Blocks in Albania and is for information purposes only. No investor should
invest in the securities of Sky Petroleum based solely on the information contained in this Presentation. Before entering into any transaction directly
or indirectly based on the information contained herein, recipients are advised to conduct their own investigation and analysis of Sky Petroleum and
its project and the data contained in this Presentation in order to confirm the validity and accuracy of the said information. Information concerning
Sky Petroleum, including risks related to its business and operations, are contained in Sky Petroleum’s filings with the Securities and Exchange
Commission available at www.sec.gov (“SEC Filings”).
▪ This Presentation does not constitute an offer or invitation for the sale or purchase of securities or of any other asset, business or undertaking and
shall not form the basis of any contract. No offer or sale of securities will be made in any jurisdiction unless registered under the Securities Act of
1933, as amended, and any applicable state securities laws or unless otherwise exempt from such registration requirements, and unless made in
compliance with securities laws of applicable jurisdictions.
▪ Except for historical information, the matters set forth herein, which are forward-looking statements, involve certain risks and uncertainties that
could cause actual results to differ. Certain factual information is derived from information provided by or otherwise reported by third-parties, which
has not been confirmed or verified by Sky Petroleum. You are cautioned against relying on forward-looking statements or third-party information.
Potential risks and uncertainties related to forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, the reliability and accuracy of third-party
information, obsolete technologies used in prior exploration programs, the ability to raise capital and fund exploration programs and working capital
requirements, the ability to design and implement exploration and development programs in Albania on a timely basis, obtaining drilling equipment
and exploration resources on a timely fashion, uncertainty of production from the wells, if any, the competitive environment within the oil and gas
industry, the extent and cost effectiveness with which Sky Petroleum is able to implement exploration and development programs in the oil and gas
industry, commodity price risk, general market acceptance, political risks associated with exploration and development activities, the successful
technical and economic execution of Sky Petroleum’s intended exploration plan, risks related to the estimates and assumptions of management,
risks related to valuation estimates, risks related to investments in penny stock and other risks and uncertainties disclosed in Sky Petroleum’s SEC
Filings.
▪ Sky Petroleum has not made, does not make and will not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or
completeness of information contained herein and none of them shall have any liability with respect to use of the information contained herein by
their direct or indirect recipient or by any person to whom such information has been properly disclosed. Sky Petroleum does not undertake any
obligation to update or publicly release any revisions to this Presentation to reflect events, circumstances or changes in expectations after the date
of this Presentation.
1
3. Sky Petroleum introduction (1/2)
Corporate Profile Management and Board Members
Offices: Austin Texas & Dubai ▪ Karim Jobanputra, CEO
OTC Bulletin Board: SKPI.OB ▪ Michael Noonan, CFO Interim, VP Corporate,
Corporate Secretary
Operations
▪ Albania: PSC signed for Blocks 4, 5 & ▪ Robert Curt
Dumre – Previously in ExxonMobil, Qatar Gas
▪ U.A.E: Agreement for offshore Mubarek – Refining and Supply expert
Field 1
▪ Russia Oil Field investment ▪ Oliver Whittle
– Luzskoye field, Komi Republic of – Previously CEO of Raiffeisen Bank Albania,
the Russian Federation 1 Barclays Bank
– Via Concorde Oil & Gas plc. 1
1 – investment impaired to zero as of 12/31/09
2
4. Sky Petroleum introduction (2/2)
Highlights Trading Fundamentals
▪ US listed independent focused on the Balkans, ▪ Stock performance for the past 2 years, USD
Middle East and FSU 0,8
▪ Focused business model 0,6
– Strategic focus on near production 0,4
opportunities 0,2
– Low burn rate = positive cash flow 0
– Positive cash on balance sheet 07/2008 01/2009 07/2009 01/2010 07/2010 01/2011
– Relationships with proven operators
▪ Share Capital
▪ Raised USD 38 million in 2005 – Issued and Outstanding – 59 M (as of 2Q10)
– Invested USD 25 million for Mubarek Project, – Insiders and Institutions – approximately
USD 1 million for Luzskoye 25%
– Approximately USD 5 million on balance – No debt, convertibles or other derivatives
sheet (as of Q2 2010)
▪ Near-term catalysts for stock appreciation
▪ Signed production sharing contract for – Albanian reserve valuation and subsequent
3 Blocks in Albania production providing accretive cash flow
– Mubarek participation agreement dispute
▪ Experienced technical, operational, legal and resolved
financial capabilities – Capital appreciation from Concorde
SOURCE: Datastream 3
5. Contents
Basic description and unique characteristics
Exploration and development plan for
the prospects
Economic value assessment of the prospects
Q&A
4
6. Basic description: in June 2010, we have been granted exclusive rights to
3 exploration blocks in Albania, covering 5,000 km2 (17% of Albania)
Onshore licenses Offshore licenses
Onshore free Offshore free
Sky Petroleum Island
Manas Adriatic International
8
Exploration &
Bankers Albania
Beach Energy
Stream Oil and Gas Capricorn
A
Albania & Dyas
7 Albania
B D Sky Petroleum blocks
1 ▪ Block 4
E – 2,264 km2 (540,000 acres)
C
Du
– 4 prospects
mre
– Estimated potential 350
MMBOE
F 2 6 ▪ Block 5
– 2,076 km2 (498,000 acres)
3 – 5 prospects
– Estimated potential 375
MMBOE
5 4 ▪ Dumre
– 623 km2 (149,000 acres)
– Estimated potential >150
MMBOE
0 20
Kilometers
SOURCE: AKBN; Sky Petroleum 5
7. Basic description: our 10 prospects in Albania build on previous research
of OMV and are located close to producing field and recent discoveries
Gas field Sky Petroleum block
Manas Petroleum Oil field Sky Petroleum prospect
estimates 3,919 MMBOE
of recoverable deposits Oil and gas in Albania
(P90) in its blocks
▪ Surface bitumen mined by Romans near Fier 2,000 years ago
▪ Modern exploration in Albania began in 1918, but slowed down
during the communist era
Squepuri oil field ▪ Since 1991, Albania reopened attracting foreign exploration (Shell,
discovered 2001 Occidental, OMV, …)
▪ Three major players in Albania claim 22 billion barrels OOIP in their
blocks, but majority of potential not explored yet
Patos-Marinza
(340 MMBOE) is Oil and gas in Sky Petroleum’s prospects
the largest
European ▪ OMV explored blocks 4 and 5 from 1998 till 2006
onshore oil field – 1,265 km of 2D seismic data (238 km of new data by OMV)
– Deep exploration wells with data in Palokastra and Kanina
– Exploration discontinued due to relatively low oil price, cost
Delvina gas overruns and shift in regional focus
field (1.3 Tcf ▪ In June 2010, Sky Petroleum obtained exclusive license to continue
OOIP), with exploration of blocks 4, 5, and Dumre
largest in SE ▪ Our 10 prospects with 435 km2 total area, majority within 20-50 km of
Europe) producing fields, are estimated to contain ~900 MMBOE of
0 20 discovered predominantly oil reserves
Kilometers
1988
SOURCE: AKBN; CIA; Manas Petroleum; OMV 6
8. Geography: the prospects are located in proximity of existing and planned
oil and gas infrastructure
Sky Petroleum blocks Gas pipeline
Vlora 1 port
▪ Storage capacity 65,500 m3 Sky Petroleum prospect Proposed
gas pipeline
ARMO oil terminal Tanker terminal
▪ Storage capacity 30,000 m3 Oil pipeline
La Petrolifera Italo Albanese oil and Refinery Proposed
gas terminal oil Pipeline
▪ Close to Italian refineries (120 km
to Brindisi, 200 km to Bari) ▪ Proposed AMBO oil pipeline
▪ Connected to railway ▪ Capacity 0.8 Mbpd
▪ Storage capacity 65,000 m3 ▪ Project currently on-hold
Fier and Ballsh refineries Trans-Adriatic pipeline
▪ Owned by ARMO (in 2008 ▪ 10-20 Bcm per year
privatized by Anica Enterprises and ▪ Currently optimal route assessment
Mercuria Energy Group Ltd., and surveys
United States-based Refinery ▪ Planned completion year unclear
Associates of Texas)
▪ Capacity 33,000 barrels per day
(currently not fully utilized) ▪ New 97 MW power near Vlore (oil,
possible conversion to gas)
Porto Romano terminal
▪ Modern (in operation since April
2009) ▪ Proposed South-Stream gas pipeline
▪ Owned by the government (from Russia to Italy)
▪ Current storage capacity ▪ Capacity 12 Bcm per year
– 20,000 m3 of oil ▪ Announced completion by 2015, start
– 10,000 m3 of LPG date still not agreed upon
▪ Loading/shipping capacity per day ▪ Most likely passing through Greece
– 9,000 tones of LPG 0 20 very near south Albania
– 16,000 tones of oil Kilometers
SOURCE: AKBN; Energy Community; company websites; press search 7
9. History of exploration: significant exploration already done
Sky Petroleum block 503 471
1,265 km of
Sky Petroleum prospect existing 2D 291
Major thrusts seismic
Gas discovery Kilometers
Dumre Block 4 Block 5
Gas field
Gas condensate field 39
Oil field 51 explora-
Oil seep tory wells1 7 5
Number
Dumre Block 4 Block 5
11
13
12
0 20
Kilometers
1 Each block contains one deep well with full documentation and a number of shallower ones
SOURCE: AKBN; CIA 8
10. Unique opportunity: previous Albpetrol, Premier Oil and OMV research
concluded significant oil and gas deposits likely…
Block Prospect Description Research done Conclusion
Albpetrol ▪ 60 km2 ▪ ~500 km of low quality 2D ▪ Initial test well missed carbonates
identified 2 ▪ Large anticlinal carbonate seismic by Albpetrol and due to poor seismic imagining
prospects structure Premier Oil ▪ Top of carbonates location now
Dumre ▪ Dumre ▪ Abundant, mature source ▪ DUM-7 exploratory well estimated better based on well
▪ Belshi1 ▪ Region is dominated by both 6,119 m, tested concept but evaluation
folding and piercement missed target ▪ New seismic and well needed
▪ Oil discoveries within 10 km
Albpetrol ▪ 26 km2, on trend with ▪ Good quality seismic (in ▪ 150 m column with extensive
identified 4 producing fields NW a valley) shows of “dead” oil, structure may
prospects ▪ Picari structure – 42 km by Albpetrol have been breached
Block 4
▪ Libohova ▪ OMV estimated 78 MMBOE of – 69 km by OMV ▪ Porosity development is low, but
▪ Konica reserves with 19% POS ▪ PK-1 exploratory well by extensive fracturing present
▪ Palokastra OMV ▪ Additional seismic needed to
▪ Tomorri – 2,605 m improve structural model
– cost USD 7 million
Albpetrol ▪ 40 km2, over 10 km long ▪ 136 km 2D seismic by OMV ▪ 163 m column of high-density oil
identified 5 structure ▪ KA-1/1 exploratory well by did not flow
prospects ▪ 5 km from Vlora-10 and 11 OMV ▪ Low porosity and drilling
▪ Llogora producing wells – 5,362 m, cost USD difficulties made tests inconclusive
Block 5 ▪ Kanina S. ▪ Ionian Zone of Albanide fold 37 million ▪ Need to develop better structural
▪ Vurgu ▪ Original estimate 27% POS ▪ Well evaluation model and redrill
▪ Butrinti ▪ Magneto-telluric study
▪ Ramica
Further details and geological research on other prospects in the
appendix (reserve potential and POS not estimated by OMV)
1 Dumre prospect exploration may identify additional prospects including Belshi, but current data is not sufficient to consider Belshi
a viable prospect
SOURCE: National Agency of Natural Resources; OMV final report 9
11. … and according to our estimates this potential may be even higher
Mean un-risked Probability Exploratory
reserve potential of Success Target depth well cost
Block Prospect MMBOE Percent Rationale Meters USD million
Dumre Dumre 150 35 Good source and seal, 6,400 25
modest reservoir expected
Libohava 100 17 Low porosity, bad access 4,000 12
Konica 100 17 Far from existing production 4,500 15
Block 4
Palokastra 75 25 Oil shows, appears breached 2,100 7
Tomorri 75 17 Far from existing production 2,500 7
Llogora 100 17 Bad access (Cika Mountain) 4,500 15
Kanina South 75 35 Positive oil discovery nearby 4,700 18
Block 5 Vurgu 75 25 Production nearby 4,200 14
Butrinti 75 25 Similar to Delvina, bad access 3,300 12
Ramica 50 25 Close to producing fields 3,000 10
Total 875 Total mean risked potential around 211 MMBOE 135
SOURCE: Experts 10
12. Analog fields: several analogs exist from previous exploration and
development
Sky Petroleum prospects Analog fields
Sky Petroleum block
Sky Petroleum prospect
Gas field ▪ 150 MMBOE Ballsh- ▪ 46 MMBOE ▪ Cret/Eoc.Carb
Gas condensate field Dumre ▪ 6,400m deep Hekal ▪ 1,000-3,000m ▪ Since 1966
Oil field
Kanina ▪ 75 MMBOE ▪ 49 MMBOE ▪ Mess-clastics
South ▪ 4,700m deep Kucove ▪ 0-1,500m ▪ Since 1928
▪ 75 MMBOE Aquila ▪ 27 MMBOE ▪ Offshore, 850m
Tomorri ▪ 2,500m deep (Italy) ▪ Since 1998
▪ 50 MMBOE ▪ 100 MMBOE ▪ Cret/Eoc.Carb
Ramica ▪ 3,000m deep
Gorisht-
▪ 1,000-2,500m ▪ Since 1965
Kocul
▪ 75 MMBOE ▪ ~14 MMBOE ▪ Cret/Eoc.Carb
Ballaj-Divjaka Palokastra ▪ 2,100m deep Amonica ▪ 2,000-2,500m ▪ Since 1980
▪
Pekishti
Kolonja-B. Dumre
100 MMBOE
Cakrran- ▪ 131 MMBOE ▪ Cret/Eoc.Carb
Seman-P. Kucove
Libohova ▪ 4,000m deep
Mollaj ▪ 3,000-4,500m ▪ Since 1977
Shpiragu
Frakulla
▪
Patos-Marinza
Visoka 100 MMBOE ▪ 350 MMBOE ▪ Cret/Eoc.Carb
Drashovice Cakrran-Mollaj Llogora ▪ 4,500m deep Delvina ▪ 2,800-3,400m ▪ Since 1989
Ballsh-Hekal
Kanina S.
▪ ▪ ▪
Gorisht-Kocul
Amonica
Tomorri 100 MMBOE 42 MMBOE Cret/Eoc.Carb
Llogora
Ramica
Palokastra
Libohova
Konica ▪ 4,500m deep Visoka ▪ 800-1,000m ▪ Since 1963
Konica
▪ 75 MMBOE Patos- ▪ 385 MMBOE ▪ Mess-clastics
Vurgu Delvina
13 Vurgu ▪ 4,200m deep Marinza ▪ 0-1,800m ▪ Since 1927
Finiq-Krane Butrinti 0 20
Kilometers ▪ 75 MMBOE
Butrinti ▪ 3,300m deep
SOURCE: AKBN; JS Herold; Wood Mackenzie; OMV 11
13. Legal status: Sky has secured exploration license for 7 years and will
automatically get a production license when oil or gas is discovered
Exploration period Production period
First Second Third Guaranteed Extension
Timeframe 2 years 3 years 2 years 25 years 5 years
Minimum Total 1.50 million Total 2.65 million Total 3.15 million
expenditure ▪ 1.25 million ▪ 0.15 million ▪ 0.15 million
requirements 150 km seismic G&G G&G
USD acquisition evaluation evaluation
▪ 0.20 million ▪ 2.50 million ▪ 3.00 million
G&G (2 exploration (2 deep
evaluation wells) or 1 well exploration
▪ 0.05 million and 100 km wells)
seismic seismic
reprocessing
No license ever terminated by
the government in Albania
SOURCE: Production Sharing Contract 12
14. Fiscal regime: modern fiscal regime established and expected to remain in
place
100% working interest (exclusive rights)
25+5 years production period
Government take
▪ Royalty 10% of sales revenues
▪ Tax 50% of the realized profit
▪ Profit sharing with AKBN 0-4% according to cumulative profit
Possibility to export 100% of production and repatriate all net
earnings
100% cost recovery (however interest charges not tax deductable)
Capital commitments: USD 7.3 million for exploration
Competitive local workforce
SOURCE: Production Sharing Contract; Albanian laws and regulations 13
15. Stability: Albania is an emerging market making good progress towards
Europe in its economic development and legal environment
Rank 112 worldwide – behind Egypt, Rank 84 worldwide – ahead of Egypt,
Bosnia, Paraguay, Guatemala, etc. Bosnia, Paraguay, Guatemala, etc.
GDP per capita
USD thousand 4.1
3.4
2.4 2.6 2.9
nominal 1.8
1.2 1.3 1.4
0.9
Foreign Direct 0.6
Investment 0.3 0.3 0.3
0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2
USD billion
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
SOURCE: Global Insight HIS; Nationmaster; press search 14
16. Exploration and development of Albanian oil fields is attractive ESTIMATE
compared to alternatives and value-creating at current oil price
Breakeven price1 for oil capacity: 2008-12 MC = marginal cost capacity
USD/bbl (real 2008 USD), WTI (already producing in 2007)
FC = full cost capacity (new
90 investments)
81
80
Current oil prices Patos-Marinza (FC) Selected Supply Elements
70 67
A 62 Saudi Arabia Spare Capacity
60 Ballsh-Hekal (FC)
B Saudi Arabia (MC)
53
C Saudi Arabia (FC)
50 Gorisht-Kocul (FC)
41 42 D Russia (MC)
40 33 E Brazil DW (FC)
Cakrran-Mollaj (FC)
33 Venezuelan Heavy Oil (FC)
28 L F
30 G US DW GoM (FC)
H Russia (FC)
20 F G I K
I Angola DW (FC)
10 5 7 J Canadian Oil Sands (FC)
A B C D E H J K US Stripper Wells (FC)
L US 10-30 b/d onshore Low
-2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Rate (FC)
Production capacity (2012)
Million bopd
2007 liquids 2012 liquids
production production
capacity capacity
1 Assumes an IRR of 10% for new capacity additions and cash breakeven for existing production capacity
SOURCE: Wood Mackenzie; EIA; IOGCC 15
17. Other players have succeeded in Albania – Bankers Petroleum
Bankers DJI S&P/TSX
Stock price (BNK at TSX stock exchange)
Company description Indexed August 2007 – August 2010 March 3, 2010 Bankers announced
increased volume of reserves by 34%
▪ Market cap: USD 1,637 million January 30, 2008 March 26, 2009 Bankers to 92.9 MMBOE P90
▪ Enterprise Value: USD 1,610 million
1,000 Bankers acquired announced 69.4 MMBOE P90
▪ Regional presence: Albania (used to a 50% interest in reserves in their Albanian prospects
have also some US operations, but these 800 the Kucove field (Kucove 2.4 MMBOE)
have been spun-off to a newly established (reserves unknown)
public company BNK Petroleum in 2008) 600
400
200
0
1.7. 1.9. 1.11. 1.1. 1.3. 1.5. 1.7. 1.9. 1.11. 1.1. 1.3. 1.5. 1.7. 1.9. 1.11. 1.1. 1.3. 1.5. 1.7. 1.9.
2007 2008 2009 2010
Start Exploration Production
Granted licenses ▪ N/A ▪ Bankers Petroleum drills in Albania since 2004
▪ 25 years development license for Patos- ▪ By the end of 2009 Bankers completed 572 wells
Marinza1 (310 producing, 13 water disposal, 249 non-active)
– Proved reserves: 90 MMBOE Production
– the largest onshore oilfield in Europe Barrels of oil per day 10,300
▪ 25 years development license for Kucove1
– Proved reserves: 3 MMBOE 5,875 6,438
▪ 7 years exploratory license for Block F 4,724
(adjacent to Patos-Marinza; prospective for 600
natural gas)
2004 2007 2008 2009 2010
1Q
1 Option to renew for additional five-year terms
16
SOURCE: DataStream; Banker Petroleum; press search
18. Other players have succeeded in Albania – Petromanas
Manas Petroleum Petro Manas DJI S&P/TSXV
Stock price (PMI at TSXV stock exchange)
Company description Indexed August 2007-August 2010
▪ Market cap: USD 204 million Dec 2007 July 2009 Feb 24, March 18, 2010 May 27, 2010
▪ Enterprise Value: USD 204 million License License 2010 Manas Petroleum raised USD 75 M
▪ Regional presence: Assets only in Albania, Parent for blocks for blocks Manas estimated total for Albania
Manas Petroleum also has assets in Canada A, B, D 2 and 3 Adriatic reserves in its blocks exploration and
300
and E acquired at 3,919 MMBOE P90 development
Manas Petroleum 32% of shares of 250
Petromanas given to 200
DWM
DWM Petroleum 150
Petromanas Energy 100
Sold in Feb
2010 (formerly WWI 50
Manas Adriatic Resources)
0
1.7. 1.10. 1.1. 1.4. 1.7. 1.10. 1.1. 1.4. 1.7. 1.10. 1.1. 1.4. 1.7. 1.10.
2007 2008 2009 2010
Start Exploration Production
Manas Adriatic obtained licenses for a total ▪ 2D Seismic ▪ First drilling expected to start in early 2011
of 6,000 km2 in Albania – >4,000 km done before Petromanas
▪ Blocks A, B, D and E since December 2007 – 694 km added by Petromanas in 2008-09
▪ Blocks 2 and 3 since July 2009 – 230 km planned for 2010-11
▪ Main prospects identified
– 9 in blocks A, B, D and E
– 3 in blocks 2 and 3
▪ Ready to drill an appraisal well in Shpiragu
SOURCE: DataStream; Manas Petroleum; Petromanas; press search 17
19. Contents
Basic description and unique characteristics
Exploration and development plan for
the prospects
Economic value assessment of the prospects
Q&A
18
20. Sky Petroleum will start with the most promising prospects in each block
Block Prospect Techniques Rationale
▪ Dumre ▪ Data ▪ Dumre 7 Redrill prospect has excellent structural model,
reprocessing proven source rocks and good drilling data
Dumre ▪ Seismic 50 km ▪ Block contains multiple analog prospects which will be
▪ Well validated by success in the Dumre 7 prospect
▪ Very high reserve potential – 150 MMBOE in Dumre 7,
an additional 100 MMBOE in analog features
▪ Palokastra ▪ Existing data ▪ Initial test well indicated the presence of hydrocarbons and
reprocessing producible reservoir rocks
Block 4 ▪ Additional ▪ Need to develop a better structural model
seismic ▪ Terrain conducive to good seismic data acquisition
acquisition ▪ Attractive prospect reserve potential – 75 MMBOE
▪ Well
▪ Kanina ▪ Existing data ▪ Kanina 1 proved hydrocarbons in the system; reservoir
reprocessing rock is present
Block 5 ▪ Additional ▪ Need to re-evaluate porosity development and technology
seismic to deal with low porosity, high density oil
acquisition ▪ Attractive prospect reserve potential – 75 MMBOE
▪ Well
SOURCE: Experts 19
21. Sky Petroleum has a staged investment plan to develop the prospects
to maximize their value at minimum risk PRELIMINARY
Exploration period
First (2 years) Second (3 years) Third (2 years)
Investment
Development activity Condition to proceed Timing USD million
▪ Dumre
– Seismic reprocessing ▪ None ▪ Q4 2010 1.5
1
– Additional seismic acquisition ▪ None ▪ Q1 2011 1.5
– Exploratory well ▪ Preparation of improved structural model for ▪ Q4 2011 25.0
well path planning
▪ Kanina
– Seismic reprocessing ▪ None ▪ Q1,2 2011 0.5
– Reservoir modeling studies ▪ None ▪ Q3,4 2011 0.5
– Additional seismic acquisition ▪ None ▪ Q2, 2011 1.0
– Exploratory well ▪ Positive indications from reservoir and ▪ Q3 2012 18.0
structural modeling
▪ Palokastra
– Seismic reprocessing ▪ None ▪ Q4 2011 0.5
– Additional seismic acquisition ▪ None ▪ Q2 2012 1.0
– Exploratory well ▪ Positive indications from structural modeling ▪ Q3 2013 7.0
1 Includes gathering and assimilating of all previous data on all three blocks
SOURCE: Experts 20
22. Contents
Basic description and unique characteristics
Exploration and development plan for
the prospects
Economic value assessment of the prospects
Q&A
21
23. Value of Sky Petroleum’s Albanian is estimated at roughly USD 1-3 billion
dependent on POS and reserve estimates
1
Stochastic DCF model
▪ NPV of individual prospects based Detailed model
on Discounted Cash Flow mechanics and
▪ Real option valuation (option to quit assumptions in
after unsuccessful exploratory well) the backup
▪ Monte Carlo simulation of stochastic
inputs to capture uncertainty
2
1
3
Multiples Stock price reaction
▪ Based on Enterprise Value ▪ Based on stock price reaction
of publicly traded E&P companies USD 1-3 billion (net of index evolution) to capacity
divided by P90 reserves (estimated) announcements of other players
in Albania
▪ Compared to Sky Petroleum
expected P90 reserves ▪ Normalized to MMBOE
of reserves
Estimates by all 3
methods depend
heavily on POS and
reserve estimated
22
24. 1 Simplified1 stochastic DCF model mechanics
Stochastic input
Key inputs Method Key parameters/illustrative curves
▪ Estimated per prospect ▪ Range 10% (Libohova) – 35% (Dumre)
Probability of ▪ Based on source rock, reservoir
success rock, trap and migration
assessment
▪ Based on long-term EIA USD per barrel
Oil price forecast
prediction ▪ Normal distribution 0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
▪ Based on analogous fields in Percent of reserves
Production Albania (peak 7% of
Revenue 10
profile recoverable reserves 5 years
after production start) 0
▪ Estimated per prospect (P50) ▪ Range 50 MMBOE (Ramica) –
Addressable ▪ Based on estimated reservoir 150 MMBOE (Dumre)
reserves size and saturation ▪ TOTAL 875 MMBOE
▪ Log-normal distribution ▪ Expected mostly oil
▪ Based on typical Opex curve USD per barrel of production
Cash flow,
Opex Opex per BOE
▪ Calibrated for Albania 20
NPV
0
▪ Estimated per prospect ▪ Range USD 8 million (Palokastra) –
Exploratory ▪ Driven by exploratory well cost USD 26 million (Dumre)
Capex ▪ Based on analogous well costs
in the region
Capex
▪ Estimated per prospect USD per BOE of reserves
Development ▪ Based on exploratory Capex 2
Capex
0
1 Full details in backup
23
25. 1 Prospect specifics driven by mean reserve potential and Oil
probability of success assumptions Gas
Share of oil in
Mean un-risked Probability the discovery Exploration
reserve potential of Success Percent of total Exploratory Well Capex start
Block Prospect MMBOE Percent reserve USD million Year
Dumre Dumre 150 35 90 25 2010
Libohava 100 17 90 12 2017
Konica 100 17 90 15 2018
Block 4
Palokastra 75 25 90 7 2012
Tomorri 75 17 90 7 2019
Llogora 100 17 90 15 2016
Kanina South 75 35 90 18 2011
Block 5 Vurgu 75 25 80 14 2013
Butrinti 75 25 30 12 2015
Ramica 50 25 90 10 2014
Total 875 Total mean risked potential around 211 MMBOE
SOURCE: Experts 24
26. 1 Under current assumptions, the mean NPV of the project is
USD ~2.1 billion (estimated)
Probability density
-0.13 4.70
3,0
5% 90% 5%
▪ The probability of
positive NPV is ~94%1
2,5
2,0
▪ Mean NPV is USD 2.1
1,5 billion
1,0 (minimum USD -0.1 billion,
0,5 maximum USD 13.6 billion,
NPV standard deviation USD 1.4
0
USD billion
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 billion)
Cumulative probability of NPV<x
▪ The downside is very
limited thanks to the
100% staged investment
decisions
▪ Dumre block is the main
driver of the overall NPV
with a mean value
USD 0.4 billion
6%
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 NPV
USD billion
1 Assuming independent prospects
Cautionary Note: NPV is complex and these valuations may not be indicative of the actual value.
SOURCE: Monte Carlo simulation: 100,000 iterations 25
27. 3 The market currently values Albanian P90 reserves at USD 10-30
per barrel, putting Sky Petroleum at USD ~1-3 billion (estimated)
Price per reserves
Event and stock reaction USD/MMBOE
Total potential value
of Sky Petroleum’s
2010 ▪ Bankers announced 92.9 MMBOE P1 Albanian assets is
reserves (23.5 MMBOE increase) 32 USD ~1-3 billion
▪ Market cap grew by USD 763 million1
Assuming
2009 ▪ USD 10-30 per BOE of
reserves
▪ P90 reserves at 105
MMBOE based on the
▪ Bankers announced 54.0 MMBOE P1 following
reserves (8.7 MMBOE increase) 22 – Mean risked
2008 ▪ Market cap grew by USD 194 million1 reserve potential
▪ Bankers acquired 50% of Kucove 211 MMBOE
field2 (~24 MMBOE increase) corresponds to P50
10
▪ Market cap grew by USD 240 million1 reserves
– P90 reserves are
2007 ▪ Bankers announced 45.3 MMBOE P1 typically ~50% of
reserves (1.7 MMBOE increase) 14 P50 reserves
▪ Market cap grew by USD 24 million1 – Mubarek field not
1 One week before the event until two weeks after the event, net of index change for the same period
included
2 Kucove field at the end of production life (discovered 1928, ~50% reserves depleted)
Cautionary Note: Valuations based on the results of others may not be indicative of the actual value of Sky Petroleum.
26
SOURCE: Company reports; DataStream; press search
28. Contents
Basic description and unique characteristics
Exploration and development plan for
Exploration and development plan for
the prospects
the prospects
Economic value assessment of the prospects
Q&A
27