Plan b 3.0 intro chaper 1 Entering a new world

Chapter 1 - Entering a new world Scientists horrified by glacier melt acceleration In 10 years projected rise in sea levels went from 1.5’ to 6’ by century’s end – 4X UNDERESTIMATE Ice flow speed exceeds anything the scientists imagined Asia’s primary glacier is melting faster than imaginable – could disappear in decades Asia’s glaciers are Asia’s Agricultural Reservoir

Nature is the Timekeeper, and were out of time. shrinking forests expanding deserts falling water tables collapsing fisheries disappearing species rising temperatures Greenland Ice Sheet melt rises see 23’ W. Antarctic Ice Sheet melt rises 19’

33’ Sea level rise – 6oo million refugees - twice US population

Time is up – race between scientific and political tipping points Will Greenland melting become irreversible? Or will we phase out coal power plants fast enough?

There are many environmental tipping points Water is running out world wide Will we stabilize population? Or watch death and wars over water? Demographic trap – Poverty begets population growth and Population growth begets poverty Countries collapse under these unresolved problems – Failing States

Failing States – Early Sign of Failing Civilization Iraq, Sudan, Somalia, Chad, Congo, Haiti… List grows Every year Civilization fails after how many states fail?

MASSIVE MARKET FAILURE IS DESTROYING US World bank Economist Nicholas Study MARKET FAILS TO INCORPORATE FOSSIL FUEL ECONOMIC COSTS TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS

MASSIVE HUMAN GROWTH IN LAST CENTURY Enterprise 20 fold Population 4 fold We now exceed the ability of earth to replenish resources

Indirect costs of burning fossil fuel CAN EXCEED THE DIRECT COSTS OF COAL NEGLECTING THESE COSTS UNDERVALUES THE MARKET – ECONOMIC DISTORTIONS SOUND DECISIONS CAN’T BE MADE – MUST KNOW FULL PRICE OF PRODUCT THREATENING CIVILIZATION

MARKET DOES NOT INCORPORATE INDIRECT COSTS – EXTERNALITIES Natures contribution Destruction of the environment Future costs to Future generations

Examples in US Gas price in 2007 $3 / gal ONLY SHOWS PRODUCTION PRICE HIDES HIDES HIDES FULL PRICE – Environmental destruction Military costs Health costs Blood of our soldiers Global / Mid East animosity to US $12 PER GALLON FUTURE COST TO OUR CHILDREN!!! MARKET SAYS IT IS CHEEP!!!!

MUST RESTRUCTURE PAST SYSTEMS MUST INCORPORATE FULL COST TO SOCIETY

EXAMPLE OF HIDING ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS 1998 China’s Yangtze River Valley 400 people’s home Worst flooding in history - $30 billion cost Cost exceeded total value of rice harvest CHINA THEN BANNED LOGGING THERE TREES STANDING WORTH 3X TREES CUT – FLOOD CONTROL SERVICES MARKET WAS OFF BY FACTOR OF 3!!!!!!!!!

ENRON – MOST WIDELY LOVED COMPANY 7TH MOST VALUABLE CO IN US 2001 THEN… INDEPENDENT AUDITORS… Co HAD LEFT CERTAIN COSTS OFF THE BOOK ENRON WAS WORTHLESS $90 STOCKS WENT TO PENNEY'S PER SHARE COLLAPSE WAS COMPLETE IT NO LONGER EXISTS

WE’RE DOING WHAT ENRON DID – LEAVING COSTS OFF THE BOOKS IF WE INCORPORATE THE INDIRECT COSTS WE’RE HEADED TOWARD COLLAPSE We need CITIZEN LEADERS!!!!

THE ‘INVISIBLE HAND’ OF THE MARKET IS BLIND TO EXTERNALITIES TREATS MASSIVE SUBSIDIES TO OIL COMPANIES AS IF THEY ARE DESERVED

EARLIER CIVILIZATIONS ALSO GOT IN TROUBLE ENVIRONMENTALLY INDUCED ECONOMIC COLLAPSE Iceland 600 yrs ago averted collapse by restricting herd size to sustainable levels Samaria BC destroyed itself by destroying its cropland The Mayan civilization destroyed itself by destroying its environment – trees, causing erosion, killing food supply

Humans Extraordinary Growth this last Century… GDP now measured in Trillions, once in Billions 2007 GDP Growth Exceeded ALL of the 1900 economy earth's natural capacities, such as its ability to supply fresh water, forest products, and seafood, have not increased Economy Exponential Growth ECLIPSES now environmental capacity to support it. 1980 WE SURPASSED EARTHS REGENERATIVE CAPACITY! WE’RE NOW SURPASSING SUSTAINABLE YIELDS BY 25%

WE ARE MEETING DEMANDS BY CONSUMING OUR CHILDREN’S RESOURCES

OUR EXISTENCE IS WHOLLY DEPENDED ON EARTH’S NATURAL RESOURCES Climate hospitable for agriculture Hydrological processes for water Geological processes producing soil Forests are shrinking Grasslands turning to desert Pumping underground water depleting available supply

WE ALL DEPEND ON PRODUCTS AND SERVICES OF EARTHS SYSTEMS. Forests Oceans Wetlands

EARTH’S SERVICES INCLUDE… water purification, pollination, carbon sequestration, flood control, soil conservation

15 of 24 major ecosystems being Degraded or Pushed Beyond Limits 40 Yr. Study of Global Eco Systems 1360 scientists ¾ Fisheries collapsing

TIPPING POINT - Were pushing the RAINFOREST TO BURN Rainforests 20% cleared so far Cattle Soybean Farming 22% degraded by road building and forestry Desert will result if they burn Roughly 100 BILLION TONS OF CARBON WILL BE ADDED TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STAYS THERE FOR UP TO 800 YEARS.

Overconsumption is collapsing Global – Forests Fisheries Wells, Water supplies

Resource collapse creates refugees

China proves the EXISTING ECONOMIC MODEL IS SUICIDE China has 4x the population of US China consumes more resources than the US Grain, meat, steel 1/3 more grain Double US meat consumption 3x steel

What if China catches up to US in per capita consumption? Expected by 2030 GLOBAL FORESTS GONE - 2x as much paper as produced worldwide per day 1.1 BILLION CARS – world currently has 860m Needing roads and parking lots equal to their agricultural land area 98 million barrels per day – MORE THAN THE 90M BARRELS PRODUCED TODAY – THE EXPECTED PEAK.

THE WESTERN ECONOMIC MODEL IS DOOM TO US ALL Fossil Fuel Based Auto centric Throw away IF IT WON’T WORK FOR CHINA IT WON’T WORK FOR INDIA India may have bigger population than China Won’t work for 3 billion in developing countries reaching toward middle class

OVERRIDING CHALLENGE FOR OUR GENERATION – BUILD AN ECONOMY BASED ON RENEWABLE RESOURCES Renewable energy Diversified transportation Reuse and recycling of everything WE HAVE THE TECHNOLOGY DO WE HAVE THE WILL?

Governments collapse when Can’t provide food Can’t provide security Education Health care Lose credibility Lose revenues Societies fragment Wars ensue Nations come to fear warring states Become hotbeds for terrorism and drugs

Failing states – GREATEST THREAT TO GLOBAL SECURITY Lack healthcare Become sources of global disease Non-state governments emerge Warlords emerge, Clans Estimated 20-47 failing Countries [insert chart]

State Failure usually causes environmental destruction Deforestation Desertification Soil erosion Shrinkage of cropland and water per person

Deteriorating environmental systems and poverty reinforce each other Donors avoid for security reasons State failure spills over into the region dragging it down Rwanda, Sudan…

Failing states hurts ability to respond to international needs Controlling spread of infectious diseases Maintaining raw material flows Disrupt local economic progress

URGENCY is needed to avoid TIPPING POINTS Shrinking species populations beyond recovery Over-fishing

Social tipping points Single issues or simultaneous multiple threats Economically advanced can handle it, but not underdeveloped Advanced countries controlled AIDS Not the underdeveloped countries 20% or more adults in some countries infected Unsupportable population growth Mideast and Africa 78 million new people per year Growth is in countries least able to support them

Even advanced countries are getting overwhelmed Falling water tables Expected – policy would stabilize aquifers NOT ONE COUNTRY HAS YET DONE SO Cutting carbon is obviously necessary NOT ONE COUNTRY HAS DONE IT YET WILL THIS BE OUR DEMISE AS SALT KILLED SAMARIA? Decline in oil production Only 2 countries are planning for it!!!

These problems can lead to failure of Civilization Analyze the effects of mounting stresses on global systems Food Security is most crucial and revealing

Farmers are failing to keep pace with population growth Falling water tables Converting crop land to other uses Extreme climate events Heat waves Droughts Floods WORLD GRAIN PRODUCTION FALLING SHORT OF NEED IN 80% OF THE YEARS NOW 2005-2007 GRAIN PRICES TRIPLED SURPLUS GRAIN SUPPLIES NOW PLUMMETING

US – WORLD’S BREAD BASKET – NOW TURNING GRAIN INTO OIL UP TO 30% OF RECENT CROPS GO TO FUEL DRIVING WORLD GRAIN PRICES TO UNPRECEDENTED HIGHS UNPRECEDENTED FOOD INSECURITY STATES FAILING

STATE FAILURE CAN BE QUICK AND UNEXPECTED ON ENVIRONMENTAL FAILURE CAN DO IT NOW WE HAVE MULTIPLE NOW STATES SO INTERCONNECTED THAT ALL WILL RISE OF FAIL TOGETHER

Plan B shaped what may save Civilization – NOT by Political Correctness Requires attacking on multiple fronts Ending poverty Stabilizing population Restoring earths natural systems Cutting carbon 80% by 2020 Efficiency Renewable sources Scale and speed – must be wartime speed Restructuring of the world economy commensurate with WWII economy restructuring Cars were banned for 3 years

Extraordinary challenge – much hope We have the EXISTING TECHNOLOGY EVERYTHING NEEDED HAS BEEN DONE SOMEWHERE Advanced Wind Towers can equal the energy of an oil well Japanese refrigerators use 12% the power of those a decade ago Today’s hybrid cars – 50 mpg – 50% more efficient

Examples of what is possible Denmark 20% of energy from wind – headed to 60% 60m Europeans get electricity from wind 40m Chinese getting hot water from rooftop heaters Iceland – 90% of homes geothermal heated India using dairy based on crop residue – 4x milk production – world’s biggest milk producer China fish farming – using advanced carp – first country with farm fish exceeding natural – 1/3 of world’s oceanic fish catch

Examples of what is possible South Korea – Reforested to 60% from near zero US – in 20 years reduced soil erosion in vulnerable areas 40% US farmers increased crop yields 20% in 20 years Curitiba, Brazil since 1974 – Population tripled while traffic 30% reduction Amsterdam – advanced urban transport – 30% by bikes Paris transportation diversification headed toward 40% reduction in traffic London uses taxes for traffic reduction

New technologies available permitting new outcomes Plug-in Hybrids plus Wind Farms –DRIVING ON WIND – at ‘$1 a gallon’

THE TIME IS NOW BEFORE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE

NEXT 5 CHAPTERS – THE ENVIRONMENTAL, DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC CHALLENGES THEN 7 CHAPTERS – ROADMAP OF WHERE WE NEED TO GO AND HOW TO GET THERE WORLD’S IN TROUBLE BECAUSE OF WHAT WE’VE PUT IN MOTION

PROMISING TRENDS OF THE MID 2000’S HAVE EVAPORATED

Ban the bulb if global could reduce the equivalent of 700 coal fired power plants

IF WE WANT WE CAN CREATE A NEW ECONOMY We could breathe clean air Cities less noisy, polluted, congested, more civilized Expanding forests Falling carbon emission

Chapter 2 Deteriorating Food and Oil Security

20th Century was the oil century 1900 – the world produced 150 million barrels of oil 28billin barrels 180 fold increase Cheap oil enabled food production explosion along with population, urbanization, mobility 1900 30% in cities – today 50% Grain harvest increased 400% in 20th cent Mobility exploded – cars, trains, planes Today – an oil based civilization

PRODUCTION SOON FALLING 1981 was the peak of new discoveries 2006 – world pumped 38 billion barrels but discovered only 9 billion new World reserves in free-fall Half of world reserves used up – 1 trillion left FIRST TRILLION WAS EASY OIL WHAT’S LEFT IS TOUGH OIL DEEP OFF SHORE UNFRIENDLY COUNTRIES PEAK OIL IS AT HAND THIS IS A TOTALLY DIFFERENT WORLD ZERO SUM GAME OVER OIL

Food and oil are hugely linked 1950-72 bushel of wheat could be traded for barrel of oil - $2 In late 2007 took 8 bushels of wheat to buy 1 barrel of oil Grain now pegged to Oil – over $60 / barrel is highly productive 2006 16% of crop went to fuel 2008 could be 30% WORLD PRICE OF GRAIN MOVING TO OIL PRICE EQUIVALENT Food will shift into fuel economy

PEAK OIL IS UPON US New production follows new discovery by about 40 years [insert data chart] 1970 US produced 9.6 million bpd 2006 5.1 million bpd 47% decline Venezuela peaked UK Peaked 2000

Pre-peakers – Russia – WORLD’S LARGEST PRODUCER Eclipsed Saudi Arabia 2006 Canada – deadly tar sands Kazakhstan Algeria Angola Brazil Nigeria UAE Libya

Approaching production decline Mexico US 2nd largest suppliers 2004 3.4 million barrels per day Key field in steep decline Could be importer by 21015 China Saudi Arabia Largest field is 50 years old 2007 production of 8.9 million barrels down 6% Can pre-peak countries make up the difference for the rest?

Major oil companies Have not been any dramatic increases in exploration and development Seems that 95% of world’s oil already discovered Whole world has been seismically searched Extremely unlikely new fields to be found World demand increases annually 2m bpd Old fields decline annually 4m bpd Needs a whole new Saudi Arabia every few years – NOT SUSTAINABLE IF THE OIL CO’S HAD GOOD PROSPECTS THEY’D BE DEVELOPING THEM WORLD PRODUCTION OF 85M BPD DECLINED IN 2007 Of the top 20 fields ever discovered 18 discovered between 1917 and 1970’s NONE HAS COME SINCE THE 1970’S

THE AGE OF DIRTY, DANGEROUS, COSTLY OIL? We can expect to drop to 67 million bpd by 2020 – a 21% drop Oil supply per person drop of 32% in just 14 years The 5% of conventional oil left Arctic as it melts Alaska Deep deep deep TAR SANDS AND OIL SHALE and carrageen Alberta – 1.1 trillion barrels Venezuela – .4 trillion barrels Rockies oil shale – carrageen SEVERAL BARRELS OF WATER FOR EACH BARREL OF OIL ALBERTA TAR SANDS – 7% US OIL NEEDS – 1.4 MILLION BPD

TAR SANDS ARE OUR DEATH Highly carbon intensive production – extensive use of natural gas 2 tons of sand for 1 barrel of oil Net energy yield is low – 2 out of each three barrels for just production – 3X DIRTIER MASSIVE LAND DESTRUCTION

WHEN PRODUCING COMPANIES AND COUNTRIES FACE THE FACT OF REDUCTION – THEY’LL RATION PRICES WILL DRIVE UP

EFFECT ON FOOD SUPPLY / COST OF FOOD

AGRICULTURE MASSIVELY OIL DEPENDENT Tractors Irrigation pumps Fertilizer Phosphate and potash mining Developing countries moving from draft animals to tractors Fertilizer uses 20% of farm energy use Urbanization necessitates fertilizer replace human waste World food shipments send nutrients elsewhere nutrients: nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium

Irrigation – manor energy user – INCREASING as water tables drop US – 19% of farm energy use India – water tables falling. 50% of ALL electricity for pumping water from wells!!!!! No-till farming is helping

Agriculture accounts for 1/5th of energy in us food system Transport processing, packaging, marketing, and kitchen preparation

US food economy uses as much energy as entire UK economy 12% for transportation from farm to consumer Air transport of food – fruit, etc – has exploded 16% canning, freezing, drying

Plan b 3.0 intro chaper 1 Entering a new world

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Plan b 3.0 intro chaper 1 Entering a new world