Chris Buist's presentation to the TMT M&A Forum in Hong Kong, January 2014: Mobile data traffic is doubling every two years, driven by smartphones and LTE. EBITDA will be squeezed and ROI will fall unless operators act now to increase capacity and bandwidth to respond to demand. Network sharing and industry consolidation will change the face of the industry. Coleago helps operators respond to these challenges.

1. The Data Tsunami
Spectrum Allocation, Infrastructure
Sharing and Industry Consolidation

2. Mobile data traffic is doubling every two years
TMT Finance & Investment - Asia 2014 - Hong Kong 1
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Source: Ericsson (November 2013)

3. Smartphones and LTE drive traffic growth
TMT Finance & Investment - Asia 2014 - Hong Kong 2
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Asia Pacific subscriptions (m)
Source: Ericsson (November 2013)
64%
Source: Ericsson (November 2013)
85%

4. Asia-Pacific traffic will grow 11x by 2019
TMT Finance & Investment - Asia 2014 - Hong Kong 3
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5. Operators need to act now
Increase revenues?
Data tariffs that reflect bandwidth
and volume needs
New services
Increase capacity and bandwidth to
respond to demand
Re-farm spectrum
Add small cells
Invest in transmission
More spectrum
Introduce LTE and LTE-A
$
Costs
Revenues will not keep pace with
costs
Engage Managed Service
providers
Share network infrastructure
Merge or acquire
TMT Finance Investment - Asia 2014 - Hong Kong 4
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Time

6. Active RAN sharing on the increase?
Technology/licence-driven
Spectrum sharing is in
the minority
Few regulators set policy
A few cases of PPP
wholesale networks
TMT Finance Investment - Asia 2014 - Hong Kong 5
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Source: Coleago

7. Will 2014 show an uptick in MA?
Chart only shows intra-country
MA excluding
Fixed/Cable-Fixed/Cable
MA
Increasing number of
MNO-MNO MA
Increasing number of
MNO-Fixed/Cable
acquisitions
TMT Finance Investment - Asia 2014 - Hong Kong 6
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Source: Coleago

8. Regulators have a difficult balancing act
TMT Finance Investment - Asia 2014 - Hong Kong 7
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Clarity
Stability

9. How Coleago helps operators
Spectrum
Spectrum strategy, valuation and
auction support
More than 50 projects worldwide, on
every continent
MA
Strategy and business planning
DD
Implementation planning/execution
More than 20 projects to date
Network sharing
From feasibility analysis through to
implementation
Projects completed in 8 markets
We've written the book!
TMT Finance Investment - Asia 2014 - Hong Kong 8
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10. Key messages
Data traffic will increase dramatically
Costs
TMT Finance Investment - Asia 2014 - Hong Kong 9
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$
Time
EBITDA will be squeezed and ROI
will fall unless operators act now
Sharing and consolidation will
change the face of the industry
Coleago helps operators respond to these challenges

11. Thank you
Director
Coleago Consulting Ltd
Recent relevant reports
Ericsson Mobility Report, Nov. 2013, www.ericsson.com/mobility-report
Ericsson Mobility Report Appendix, Northeast Asia, Nov. 2013
TMT Finance Investment - Asia 2014 - Hong Kong 10
© Copyright Coleago 2014
Chris Buist
+43 664 352 1068
chris.buist @coleago.com
www.coleago.com