This document discusses global warming and presents evidence that it is real and poses serious risks. It summarizes the greenhouse effect and increasing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. Observed impacts include rising temperatures worldwide, melting glaciers and sea ice, and shifting species ranges. Projected impacts include more extreme heat waves, worsening droughts and wildfires, rising sea levels submerging coastal areas, and altered precipitation patterns exacerbating problems for agriculture and water resources. Addressing global warming requires international cooperation given uneven contributions to the problem and effects. Improving climate prediction is important to managing associated risks through adaptation and mitigation efforts.

1. Global Warming: Hoax or
Current and Present Danger
Jagadish Shukla
University Professor
College of Science (COS), George Mason University (GMU)
President, Institute of Global Environment and Society (IGES)
2nd India Disaster Management Congress
Vigyan Bhavan, New Delhi, 4 Nov 2009
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“Revolution in Climate Prediction is Both Necessary and Possible”
Shukla, Hagedorn, Hoskins, Kinter, Marotzke, Miller, Palmer, and Slingo, BAMS, Feb 2009, pp 175-178
(Climate Prediction and Disaster Management)

2. Outline
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1.Science
• Greenhouse effect; Global warming
• Fear-mongering Hoax or Real and Present Danger!
• Observed and Projected Changes
• Ethics and Sustainability
2. Climate Prediction and Disaster
Management
(Protection of lives and livelihoods)

3. Great Natural Disasters
1950 – 2005
Number of events
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Others (Heat wave, cold wave, forest fire)
Flood
Storm
Earthquake/tsunami, volcanic eruption
© 2006 NatCatSERVICE, Geo Risks Research, Munich Re

6. Center of Ocean-Land-
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Global Warming
Global Warming is the increase in the average temperature of the
Earth’s near surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and
its projected continuation. (Wikipedia)
0.76°C (1.4°F) since 1900
0.55°C (1.0°F) since 1979
Global Temperature Change (oC)
Annual Mean
5-year Mean

7. The Climate of a Planet Depends On …
1. Energy from the Sun
(energy from the interior)
2. Planetary Albedo
3. Speed of Planet’s Rotation
4. Mass of the Planet
5. Radius of the Planet
6. Atmospheric Composition
7. Ocean-Land, Topography
S


M
a
H2O, CO2, O3, clouds
h*
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8. • If there were no greenhouse gases the
Earth’s temperature would be about 0F
(not 59F)
• Greenhouse effect is real; without it, the
Earth would be uninhabitable.
• Feedbacks amplify the warming by
greenhouse gases.
The Greenhouse Effect
(The Cause of Global Warming)
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9. Monthly Mean Carbon Dioxide
NOAA CMDL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases
Atmospheric carbon dioxide mixing ratios determined from the continuous monitoring programs at the 4 NOAA CMDL baseline observations.
Principal investigator: Dr. Pieter Tans. NOAA CMDL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases. Boulder, Colorado. (303) 497-6678
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10. An Elegant Science Question:
Are increases in greenhouse gases responsible for
increase in global mean temperature (global warming)?
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0.76°C (1.4°F) since 1900
0.55°C (1.0°F) since 1979
395
365
335
305
275
14.6
14.4
14.0
13.8
13.4
14.2
13.6
Global Temperature & Carbon Dioxide 1860-2008

11. Science and Politics
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Percentage of Democrats/Republicans who said that
news of global warming was exaggerated (Gallup)
1998 2004 2008
Democrats 23% 22% 18%
Republicans 34% 60% 59%
Thanks: Ed Maibach, Center for Climate Change Communication (GMU)

12. Let us look at
the Observations.
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13. Center of Ocean-Land-
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Global Mean Temperature

14. (Himalayas)

15. Center of Ocean-Land-
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•The blue error bars include only the
contributions from uncertainties in
the GRACE gravity fields.
Velicogna and Wahr (2006)
Greenland Ice Mass

16. 25% of Wild Mammal Species Face Extinction
Global Assessment Paints 'Bleak Picture' Scientists Say,
and Figure of Those at Risk Could Be Higher
By Juliet Eilperin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
BARCELONA, Oct. 6 - At least a quarter of the
world's wild mammal species are at risk of
extinction, according to a comprehensive global
survey released here Monday.
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17. Center of Ocean-Land-
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Observed & Projected Global Mean Warming

18. Global Warming is
Real and Unequivocal
• Rising Temperatures (land, ocean)
• More Hot Days; Less Frost Days
• Melting Glaciers and Arctic Sea Ice
• Decreasing Winter Snow Cover
• Rising sea level
• Poleward and Northward Shift of Species
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19. Impacts
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20. Florida with 3 feet of Sea-Level Rise
Areas in red would
be under water
with a 3 foot rise in
sea level,
projected for this
century.
Coastal areas are at increasing risk
from sea-level rise and storm surge.
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21. Mohamed Nasheed
President of the Maldives
WANTED: New Home for My Country
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22. Number of Days Over 100ºF
Increases in very high temperatures
will have wide-ranging effects.
Recent Past, 1961-1979
Higher Emissions Scenario, 2080-2099
Lower Emissions Scenario, 2080-2099
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23. Summary of Major Impacts
• Heat waves; Droughts; Forest fires
• Coastal area’s habitability (sea level)
• Health (cholera; malaria; dengue; lyme)
• Biodiversity: extinction of species
• Agriculture (uneven); Tropics (serious)
• Water (drying; snow melt; glacier melt)
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24. Global Well-Being
(sustainability, security
and the future of civilization)
The Global Challenge
Inequality and
Extreme Poverty
Human Population
Growth
Environmental
Degradation
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25. • “Polluter must pay”
(We (US) are the biggest polluters but we also have the biggest guns.)
• Those who have contributed the least to global
warming will suffer the most and the earliest.
• Poor countries would like to improve the quality of
life of their people (consume more energy).
• Sustainable developement in a changing climate is
challenged by population growth and exetreme
poverty.
Ethics of Global Warming
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26. Center of Ocean-Land-
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Which Countries are Emitting
the Most per Capita Greenhouse Gases?

27. Global CO2 Emissions
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• In 2005, global emissions were 27
billion tons of CO2
• Per capita, emission (27/6.7 billions)
= 4 tons/per capita/yr
• US emissions = 20 tons/per capita/yr

28. Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions (India)
Sharma et. al (2008); PM Council (2008)
• GHG (1994) = CO2 (63%) + CH4 (33%) + N2O (4%) = CO2Eq
• GHG = CO2Eq unit: Million Metric Tons (Mt)
• Rate of Increase 2000-2004 (GHG): 4.2% per year
Year 1990 1994 2000 2004 2020
GHG 998 1228 1484 1748 3000
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29. Global Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions (2004)
CO2 (Gt)
Population
(millions)
Tons per
person
World 27.1 6365.0 4.25
USA 5.9 293.7 20.01
India 1.1 1079.7 1.02
China 4.7 1296.2 3.60
Unit: Billion Metric Tons (Gt)
(PM Council, 2008)
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30. 2020: Projections for CO2Emissions (India,
USA)
• USA: 20% below 2004; 4.7Gt; (4.7/338.4M) ~ 14 tons/person
• India: 72% above 2004; 3Gt; (3/1332M) ~ 2.3 tons/person
• USA: 50% below 2004: 2.9Gt; (2.9/404M) ~7.2 tons/person
• India: 2% increase 2020-2050; 5.4Gt; (5.4/1620M) ~ 3.3 tons/person
3% increase 2020-2050; 7.3Gt; (7.3/1620M) ~ 4.5 tons/person
2050: Projections for CO2 Emissions (India, USA)
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31. • Damages from business-as-usual scenario would
be at least 5% and up to 20% of Global GDP a year
• Costs of removing most of the climate risk are
around 1% of GDP per year
• This is equivalent to paying on average 1% more
for what we buy
• “We can grow and be green”
Sir Nicholas Stern
STERN REVIEW:
Main threat to a sustainable Earth
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32. Need for Accurate and Reliable Climate Prediction
at Regional Scale
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1. Protection of lives
2. Agriculture and food security
3. Tourism
4. Energy supply and demand
5. Health epidemics
6. Water resource management
Climate prediction requires high-resolution global models

33. Evolution of ECMWF Forecast Skill
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34. Simulation and Prediction of Asian
Monsoon by Climate Models
•Mean Climate
•Climate Change
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35. “Computer modeling of global
climate is perhaps the most
complex endeavor ever
undertaken by mankind.”
Kerry Emanuel (2007)
What We Know About Climate Change
(MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts)
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36. Bjorn Stevens, UCLA
World Modelling Summit, ECMWF, May 2008
Annually & Zonally Averaged SW Radiation (AR4)

37. Annual cycle of Rainfall over India
Daily
Clim
Daily Clim.
Monthly Clim.
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39. Center of Ocean-Land-
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40. Changes in Indian Monsoon
due to Global Warming:
A Challenge (Large Uncertainty)
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41. Center of Ocean-Land-
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JJAS Precipitation (1979-1998)
Observation Model: 20C3M
IPCC Models are unable to simulate mean monsoon rainfall.

42. Center of Ocean-Land-
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JJAS Precipitation
IPCC Model: 20C3M
1979-1998
Observed TRMM

43. Center of Ocean-Land-
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JJAS Surface
Temperature
SRES minus C20C (79-98)
IPCC Models show
warming of surface
temperature due to
doubling of CO2

44. Center of Ocean-Land-
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JJAS Precipitation
SRES minus C20C (79-98)
Change in precipitation
due to global warming is
model dependent.
`

45. (Sun et al, 2005, J. Climate)
LATITUDE
More from regional model simulations over NE Brazil
Improvement of Mean Climate using a Regional Model
Rainfall
Amount
6S 4S 2S EQ 2N 4N 6N 8N 10N
Average Rainfall (Feb-Mar-Apr)
off NE coast of S. America
Obs.
GCM
ITCZ placement is much
improved in RCM, and…
RCM
Daily Rainfall Amount
Frequency
(#
Days)
5
10
15
20
25
30
Frequency of Daily Rainfall (Feb-Mar-Apr)
frequency of daily rainfall
amounts within the season
is improved.
Obs.
RCM
GCM
Slide courtesy of Lisa Goddard
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46. Center of Ocean-Land-
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Rupa Kumar et. al.
(2006; Current Science)
HadCM3/PRECIS Gives More India Rainfall
with Global Warming

47. HadCM3/NASA FVGCM/RegCM3
Changes in (A2 minus Reference) in precipitation (mm/day)
due to global warming as simulated by regional models
HadCM3/PRECIS
(Rupa Kumar et al., 2006, Current Science)
(Ashfaq et al., 2009, GRL)
(RegCM3 produces weaker monsoon; PRECIS
produces stronger monsoon due to global warming)
July
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JJAS
%

48. Center of Ocean-Land-
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WMS takes place at ECMWF (6-9 May 2008). Nearly 150
participants from all modelling centers of the world.
Article in Nature, May 2008

49. From Cyclone Resolving Global Models
to
Cloud System Resolving Global Models
1. Planetary Scale Resolving Models (1970~): Δx~500Km
2. Cyclone Resolving Models (1980~): Δx~100-300Km
3. Mesoscale Resolving Models (1990~): Δx~10-30Km
4. Cloud System Resolving Models (2000 ~): Δx~3-5Km
Organized
Convection
Cloud
System
Mesoscale
System
Synoptic
Scale
Planetary
Scale
Convective
Heating
MJO ENSO
Climate
Change
Seamless Prediction of Weather and Climate
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50. Yelick, U.C. Berkeley
World Modelling Summit, ECMWF, May 2008
Petaflop with ~1M Cores by 2008

52. Center of Ocean-Land-
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(b) Coupled model (2 degree)
- Climatology -
Monsoon Rainfall in Low Resolution Model

53. Oouchi et al. 2009: (a) Observed and (b) simulated precipitation rate over the Indo-China
monsoon region as June-July-August average (in units of mm day -1). The observed
precipitation is from TRMM_3B42, and the simulation is for 7km-mesh run.
Monsoon Rainfall in High Resolution Model
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54. International Research and Computational
Facility to Revolutionize Climate Prediction
Examples of International Collaboration
• CERN: European Organization for Nuclear Research (Geneva,
Switzerland)
• ITER: International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor
(Gadarache, France)
• ISS: International Space Station
(somewhere in sky..)
WHAT ABOUT CLIMATE PREDICTION?
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55. International Research and Computational
Facility to Revolutionize Climate Prediction
1. Computational Requirement:
- Sustained Capability of 2 Petaflops by 2011
- Sustained Capability of 10 Petaflops by 2015
Earth Simulator (sustained 7.5 Teraflops) takes 6 hours for 1 day forecast using
3.5 km global atmosphere model; ECMWF (sustained 2 Teraflops) takes 20
minutes for 10 day forecast using 24 km global model
2. Scientific Staff Requirement:
- Team of 200 scientists to develop next generation climate model
- Distributed team of 500 scientists (diagnostics, experiments)
A computing capability of sustained 2 Petaflops will enable 100 years of
integration of coupled ocean-atmosphere model of 5 km resolution in 1 month of
real time
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56. THANK YOU!
ANY QUESTIONS?
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