Ian Scoones - Enabling plural pathways - uncertainty and responses to climate change
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Workshop on climate change and uncertainty from below and above, Delhi. http://steps-centre.org/2016/blog/climate-change-and-uncertainty-from-above-and-below/
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Ian Scoones - Enabling plural pathways - uncertainty and responses to climate change
- 1. Enabling plural pathways: uncertainty and responses to climate change Ian Scoones Climate Change and Uncertainty from Above and Below 27-28 January 2016 IIC, New Delhi
- 4. Climate models and uncertainty.… • Increasing complexity - more variables, more computing power • More models (IPCC 5 had 50 plus models, from 20 plus groups) – CMIPs (coupled model inter-comparison projects) based on linked Atmospheric-Ocean GCMs • Huge variation compared across model ensembles. But uncertainties exist within as well as between models (shared assumptions, modelling cultures/institutional contexts) – incomplete knowledge throughout • Downscaling from global change to impacts at geographic/field level (e.g. linking to crop production), major inconsistencies…. And even more uncertainty.
- 5. Knowledge and politics • Science (and modelling) has limitations in context of complexity, uncertainty, indeterminacy…. • Knowledge not produced independently of framings, assumptions, values and politics – shaped by social experiences/cultures (in labs, in field, in assessment panels, in policy settings) • Multiple knowledges generate different claims of objectivity, legitimacy, authority = debate • Deliberation among different claims, involving diverse groups, essential – and this is political (always).
- 6. unproblematic knowledge about likelihoods RISK UNCERTAINTY Non-linear, non-equilibrium systems Human, social factors changing contexts problematic Four dimensions of incertitude – opening up debate risk assessment, prediction cost benefit analysis optimising decision models
- 7. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about possibilities RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY INCERTITUDE what is benefit or harm? how fair? which alternatives? whose values and societies?
- 8. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about possibilities RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE surprise black swans novel agents, vectors, dynamics INCERTITUDE
- 9. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about possibilities RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY political closure absence of participation, lack of democracy reductive models aggregative analysis `science-based policy institutional cultures insurance protection indicators / metrics IGNORANCE Power Closes Down to Risk illuminate specific microdynamics of closure
- 10. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about possibilities RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE Opening Up Political Space for Debate definitive prevention
- 11. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE RISK knowledge about possibilities Methods: explore and experiment with ‘plural condition’ practices UNCERTAINTY precautionary appraisal
- 12. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods IGNORANCE RISK UNCERTAINTY knowledge about possibilities scenarios backcasting interactive modells MC mapping Q-method AMBIGUITY participatory deliberation
- 13. knowledge about likelihoods problematic UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE transdisciplinarity, social learning civic research, participatory monitoring, learning adaptation unproblematic unproblematic problematic AMBIGUITYRISK knowledge about possibilities
- 14. knowledge about likelihoods problematic UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE unproblematic unproblematic problematic AMBIGUITYRISK knowledge about possibilities
- 15. Theme Conventional views Emerging views Knowledge/power Science as arbiter, single source of authoritative knowledge; conflict, dissent and debate underplayed Multiple sources; plural and partial perspectives; conflict, dispute and dissent inevitable; negotiated understandings Risk and uncertainty Measurable risks and predictable outcomes; assumptions of ‘normal’, ‘standard’ patterns Uncertainty and ignorance; temporal variability and spatial diversity Development planning and policy Blueprint approach; linear policy model Adaptive planning, flexible, responsive, learning; non-linear policy: negotiation, adaptation, discretion key Livelihoods and resource management Single use, sectoral view of resources; resources as commodities; production focus Multiple users, complex and diverse livelihoods Institutions Static, rule-based, formal, clear boundaries, fixed, exclusivity Dynamic, overlapping, heterogeneous, socially-defined, emergent from social relations and practice, flexible Legal frameworks Formal legislation: fixed rules and procedures Evolving law in practice, multiple systems, legal pluralism Governance Separation of levels: local vs global; rules and formal institutions of governance Networks of actors, multi-level governance, messy interactions, negotiation of outcomes
- 16. From above and below….across • Combining sources of knowledge and understanding - ‘dismantling the divide’ between ‘expert’ and other knowledges • Rethinking modelling practices and cultures – combined approaches for negotiating uncertainty • Transdisciplinarity, participation, deliberation, co-production, social learning for sustainability • New institutions, new professionals – dealing with mess, brokers, tracking, mediators • Keep it complex, embracing uncertainty - plural and conditional advice for multiple pathways
Notes de l'éditeur
- Lodwar graph. My starting point. – 30 years of work in dryland and pastoral systems…. Non-eqm – challenge to deterministic, dd population modelling, focus on mobility, response, and non-equilbirum, non-linear dynamics….. Insufficient – Incomplete Indeterminate Inverse Intractable Incommensurable But too often we get risk – and models, which can suppress our knowledge about knowledge Representing incomplete knowledge as risk is problematic, but expedient in the exercise of power…… So this graph….. And pastoralism xx
- Eriksen, Thornton etc. in Pastoralism and Development in Africa While evidence for climate change resulting in surface level warming is incontrovertible, the consequences this will have for pastoral production systems are less clear. Impacts are likely to be highly spatially heterogeneous, influenced by diverse factors on the ground. As we have shown, major uncertainties are inherent in the modelling efforts, resulting in often divergent predictions. While there is growing consensus on the impacts on temperature, there remain uncertainties around precipitation, particularly extreme events and overall seasonal and interannual variability [in other words virtually all the key parameters…] So what to do about it? More modelling…. Better ‘accuracy’ (complexity logic = closing down around risk; argument that these are (of course) wrong, but still useful)… Or a totally different approach. Argue the latter (participatory logics – opening up to uncertainty and diversity).