Presentation at the STEPS Conference 2010 - Pathways to Sustainability: Agendas for a new politics of environment, development and social justice http://www.steps-centre.org/events/stepsconference2010.html

1. Critical
Thresholds and
Tipping Points
Session
John Thompson, Session Chair
STEPS 2010 Conference
23-24 September 2010

2. Scanning the
Horizon for Critical
Thresholds and
Tipping Points
Assessing the
Potentials and
Limitations of
Future Studies in
Sustainability
Science

3. Scanning Horizons
• Many foresight studies seek to identify
highly improbable system shifts,
alternatively referred to as ‘’black
swans’, wild cards’, ‘tipping points’,
‘thresholds’ or ‘regime shifts’.
• These concepts may be introduced
into a horizon-scanning or anticipatory
decision-making activity in order to
improve the ability of organisations to
adapt to surprises arising from
turbulent economic, environmental,
social or technological changes

4. Critical Questions
• What are the strengths and the weaknesses of horizon-
scanning studies for detecting and assessing the likely impact
of unexpected perturbations on socio-ecological systems?
• How would we know a ‘tipping point’ when we see one – and
can we spot the tell-tale signs of fundamental system change
before it arrives?
• Can we really look ahead and empirically identify tell-tale the
‘early-warning signs’ or indicators that signal imminent
system change – i.e. that we are approaching critical
thresholds?
• Do these critical transitions share certain generic properties
that can be elaborated regardless of differences in the details of
each system, or are they system or context specific?
• Are all tipping points negative or could they perhaps lead
from a less to a more resilient and robust state – leading from
critical transitions to system transformation?

5. Presenters
• Per Olsson – Stockholm Resilience Centre – Critical
Thresholds and Transformations in Social-Ecological
Systems
• Michael Reilly – UK Government Office for Science,
Foresight Research and Knowledge Management –
Learning to Rhyme: Reflections on the UK Government
Foresight Programme
• Tim Lenton – University of East Anglia – Early Warning of
Climate Tipping Points
• Discussant: Erik Millstone, STEPS Centre/SPRU – Can
We Research Tipping Points?

6. Critical Thresholds and Tipping Points