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Telling macro stories about productivity from micro data

Mark Cully - Global Forum on Productivity - 20-21 June 2019, Sydney

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Telling macro stories about productivity from micro data

  1. 1. 1 Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist Telling macro stories about productivity from micro data Mark Cully Chief Economist June 2019
  2. 2. 2 A long run perspective on growth GDP per capita, real wages and productivity, Australia and US, 1966 to 2016 Source: Derived from national accounts and price indices. Notes: Hourly earnings is compensation of employees per hour worked, deflated by CPI. 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Index(1991=100) Australia Labour productivity GDP per capita Hourly earnings 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Index(1991=100) United States
  3. 3. 3 A big divergence opens up Growth in Australian real wages and productivity relative to the US, 1966 to 2016 Source: Derived from national accounts and price indices. Notes: Hourly earnings is compensation of employees per hour worked, deflated by CPI. 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 Index(1991=100) Labour productivity Real hourly wage
  4. 4. 4 Australia’s productivity performance has been mediocre Multifactor productivity annual growth rates, 1975-76 to 2017-18, per cent Source: Productivity Commission (2019), PC Productivity Bulletin — May 2019 Aggregate labour productivity annual growth rates, 1975-76 to 2017-18, per cent
  5. 5. 5 Business investment declining Outside mining, capital and R&D investment both fell away after GFC and have not recovered •Business expenditure on R&D (mining vs non-mining), 2000–01 to 2015–16 •Source: ABS (2019), National Accounts, Cat. No. 5206.0 •Notes: In 2011–12 data moved to collection on a biennial basis Source: ABS (2019), Research and Experimental Development, Businesses, Australia, Cat. No. 8104.0, ABS (2019), National Accounts, Cat. No. 5204.0 •Private business investment (mining vs non-mining), 2001 to 2017 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2013-14 (biennial) PercentofGDP Non-mining Mining
  6. 6. 6 What is BLADE?
  7. 7. 7 Payoff to R&D varies by intensity Firms with highest R&D intensity enjoy stronger returns Impact of R&D intensity on turnover growth by quantile, 2001–02 to 2012–13 Source: Majeed, O. et. al. (2018), What drives high-growth? Characteristics of Australian firms
  8. 8. 8 Payoff to exporting Performance indicators Growth in the first group over and above the second group (percentage points) Continuous exporter vs non-exporter Continuous exporter vs switcher Switcher vs non- exporter Employment 0.6 0.5 – Value-added 3.9 1.7 – Labour productivity 6.3 2.3 1.2 Average wage 7.4 3.1 1.3 Capital expenditure 1.2 1.1 0.3 Average annual growth differentials by export status 2004–05 to 2013–14 Notes: ‘–’ denotes statistically insignificant estimates. Source: Tuhin, R. & Swanepoel, A. (2016) Export behaviour and business performance: Evidence from Australian microdata
  9. 9. 9 Payoff to management capability Firms with strategic management focus have highest productivity levels across all size groups Labour productivity and management capability by firm size, 2015–16 Source: Moran, I. et. al. (2018), Strategic management in Australian firms 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 10 100 1000 LabourProductvity($'000s) Employment Low Engagement Ad hoc Narrow-Focus Strategic
  10. 10. industry.gov.au 10 Follow us @economist_chief ChiefEconomist@industry.gov.auEmail:

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Mark Cully - Global Forum on Productivity - 20-21 June 2019, Sydney

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