2016 November GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education

GRAYREPORTS
Demand for Higher Education Programs
www.GrayAssociates.com
Results through November 2016

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GRAY
Strategies for Developing New Academic Programs: January 18 -20, 2017 – San Diego, CA
Gray will be presenting at the AI conference in San Diego on January 18-20.
Learn the art and science of selecting new academic programs. You will walk through
a set of criteria that should guide your decisions on which programs to Start. You will
leave this event better able to assess the potential for a new academic program,
including:
§  Fit with your institutional mission and goals
§  Operational feasibility given your capacity and resources
§  Prospective student enrollment
§  Internal support to get it up and running
§  Profitability and impact resulting from failure
For more information, please visit:
www.AcademicImpressions.com
Strategies for Developing New Academic Programs
January 18-20, San Diego, CA

GRAY
Agenda
1.  Inquiry and Conversion Trends:
1.  National
2.  Online and On-Campus
3.  Degree and Channel
2.  Integrated View of Student and Employer Demand:
1.  City and Program
2.  Job Posting Trends
3.  Summary

GRAY
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
We will share data from 2014, 2015, and 2016.
§  GrayReports covers January 2012 through the present.
§  We add between 600,000 to 1 million qualified inquires to the dataset each month.
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2016

GRAY
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
National Inquiries
2014 2015 2016
Inquiries have decreased an average of 9% year-over-year in 2016.
-9%

GRAY
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
National Inquiries
2014 2015 2016
In November, inquiry volumes decreased 8%.
-8% YoY

GRAY
Branded Inquiries
Branded inquiries are up for the seventh consecutive month.
§  The average monthly growth rate for branded inquiries in 2016 is 7%.
§  In November, branded inquiries grew 5%.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
National Branded Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016
+5% YoY

GRAY
External Inquiries: Overall Results
External (or PPL) inquiries for higher education have dropped an average of 15% in 2016.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
National External Inquiries
-15%

GRAY
External Inquiries: Overall Results
In November, external inquiries fell 14%, roughly in-line with the year-to-date average.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
National External Inquiries
-14% YoY

GRAY
Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
In 2014 and 2015, conversion rates were volatile.
§  In 2014 and 2015, quarterly rates rose as little as 1% and as much as 22%.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends
(Indexed to Q1 2014)
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be
counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
2.  Total includes unknown source type.
+11%
+22%
+1%

GRAY
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends
(Indexed to Q1 2014)
Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
In 2016, conversion rates seem to be stabilizing, close to 2014 levels.
§  Q3 2016 is not fully matured and is already greater than last quarter and 7% above the Q1 2014 level.
§  Rates may be stabilizing 5-10% above our baseline.
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be
counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
2.  Total includes unknown source type.
+7%

GRAY
Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
For August inquiries, total conversions fell 13% year-over-year.
§  This is the highest volume of conversions since January of this year.
§  It now takes six months for conversions to fully mature, so the 13% gap should narrow.
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the
application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
Immature Months1
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Total Inquiry Conversions
2014 2015 2016
-13% YoY

GRAY
2014 $41.72 $41.81 $41.70 $42.45 $40.94 $44.23 $44.25 $44.00 $45.34 $45.43 $44.79 $42.18
2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75
2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.53 $45.13 $44.77 $44.92 $-
$30
$32
$34
$36
$38
$40
$42
$44
$46
$48
Average Price per Inquiry for PPI
Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
The average price of an External inquiry has been fairly stable.
§  Prices peaked in February at $45.91 and have fallen over $1.00 since then.
§  So far in 2016, the average price for paid inquiries has risen just 1.2% year-over-year.
Note: PPI means“Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.
+0.6%

GRAY
Agenda
1.  National
3.  Summary

GRAY
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online Programs
2014 2015 2016
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeYear-to-date, inquiries for online programs are flat year-over-year.
+0.1%

GRAY
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Inquiries
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeAfter a drop in October, inquiries for online programs grew 5%.
§  Growth is particularly impressive since November grew over 40% last year.
§  Online inquiries have now increased in four of the last five months.
+5% YoY

GRAY
Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
Conversions for online higher education programs increased 10% in August.
§  This is the first increase since March of this year.
§  September has already surpassed year-ago levels with another month to mature.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
2014 2015 2016
Immature Months1
1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January
conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.
+10% YoY

GRAY
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
The negative trend in inquiries for on-campus academic programs in higher education continues.
§  The first eleven months of 2016 have fallen short of year-ago levels by an average of 15%.
§  In November, inquiries for on-campus higher-education programs dropped 12% year-over-year.
2012
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
2014 2015 2016
-12% YoY

GRAY
Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
Conversions for on-campus programs fell 7% YoY in August.
§  May, June and July each closed the gap by about 1%.
§  September still has a large gap to make up before maturing.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
2014 2015 2016
-7% YOY
Immature Months1

GRAY
Agenda
1.  National
3.  Summary

GRAY
Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Trailing Three Months
Post-Master’s certificates continued to be the fastest-growing degree.
§  Surprisingly, other higher-level degrees (Doctor’s and Master’s) are on the decline.
-17%
-12%
-12%
-3%
-1%
65%
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Master's degree
Bachelor's degree
Doctor's degree
Associate's degree
Undergraduate certificate
Post-master's certificate
Quarterly Change in Inquiries
2016/2015 (September through November)

GRAY
Inquiry Volumes by Channel – Trailing Three Months
Last month, Aﬃliate – PPC was the fastest-growing channel for student inquiries.
§  Six diﬀerent Branded inquiry channels grew in the most recent quarter.
-64%
-43%
-37%
-34%
-30%
-12%
-2%
2%
16%
25%
29%
32%
59%
61%
301%
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350%
PPC - Inbound Call: Branded
Email: Branded
Interactive: Branded
PPL: External
Display: Branded
Referral: Branded
PPC: Branded
Affiliate: External
Website: Branded
All Other Internal: Branded
Offline Media: Branded
Organic: Branded
Inbound Phone: Branded
Social Media: Branded
Affiliate - PPC: External
Quarterly Change in Inquiries by Channel
(September through November YoY)

GRAY
Agenda
1.  National
2.  Job Postings Trends
3.  Summary

GRAY
The Big 5 Programs: November Growth
Inquiries for the Big Five shrank over 10%–accounting for 91% of the total decline in inquiries.
§  Medical Assisting performed the best, but still dropped 16%.
§  Registered Nursing was not far behind, decreasing 19%.
§  Criminal Justice/Police Science continued to drop, down 22%.
§  The two business programs dropped more than 25%.
-16%
-19%
-22%
-25%
-30%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Medical Assistant Registered Nursing Criminal Justice Business Admin:
Associate's -
Business Admin:
Bachelor's +
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012
Year-over-Year Change in November Inquiries
2016 YoY % Change

GRAY
21%
41%
-37% -34%
217%
153%
109%
99%
74%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Human Services,
General
Medical Insurance
Coding Specialist/
Coder.
Health Services
Administration.
Health Information/
Medical Records
Technology/Technician.
Construction
Management.
The Fast 5 Programs
2015 YoY % Change 2016 YoY % Change
The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth
All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew more than 70%.
§  At over 200%, Human Services grew the fastest.
§  The three fastest growers this month are repeats from last month’s five fastest-growing list.
1.  Includes the top 75 programs in inquiry volume since January 2012. 2. May reflect competitive marketing, or reporting by Gray’s data suppliers.

GRAY
Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities
All five cities in The Big 5 decreased year-over-year.
§  Philadelphia performed the best, but still declined 9% compared to November 2015.
§  Chicago had the largest decline–a drop of 35%.
-16%
-10%
-9%
-23%
-15%
-9%
-21%
-32%
-34% -35%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Philadelphia, PA New York, NY Atlanta, GA Los Angeles, CA Chicago, IL
Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.

GRAY
Agenda
1.  National
3.  Summary

GRAY
-2%
4%
10%
27%
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Bachelor's
Master's
Associate's
Doctorate
National Quarterly Change in New Job Postings
2016/2015 (September through November)
National New Job Postings by Degree – Trailing Three Months1
Unlike last month, not all new job postings requiring a degree grew for the last three months.
§  Job postings for Bachelor’s degrees decreased 2%.
§  Compared to last year, job postings that require a Doctoral degree grew 27%.
1.  Excludes Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers.

GRAY
New Job Postings: The Big 5 Cities1
Two of the five cities with the highest number of job postings grew year-over-year in 2016.
§  New York and Seattle grew in both 2015 and 2016.
§  Chicago, Houston, and Atlanta declined 6-9%.
21%
6%
17%
-11%
17%
8%
-8%
35%
-6%
-9%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
New York, NY Chicago, IL Seattle, WA Houston, TX Atlanta, GA
Largest Five Cities for New Job Postings
September through November Year-over-Year Results

GRAY
New Job Postings: Ten Largest Occupations in Nation1,2
Once again, in the past three months, Registered Nursing had the most new job postings in the country.
§  Half of the top ten occupations involve some form of computer systems or IT.
§  In this time period, the 10 largest occupations made up 31% of the total new job postings requiring a degree.
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
Registered Nurses
Computer Occupations, All Other
Software Developers, Applications
Marketing Managers
Computer Systems Analysts
Accountants and Auditors
Medical and Health Services Managers
Computer User Support Specialists
Management Analysts
Network and Computer Systems Administrators
New Job Postings in Last 3 Months (Sep-Nov 2016)
Ten Largest Occupations in the U.S.
IT
Health
Other
1.  Includes only the occupations that require at least an Associate’s degree.

GRAY
New Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Occupations in Nation1,2
The fastest-growing occupations are generally in the healthcare industry.
§  Five of the ten fastest-growing occupations are related to healthcare.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists
Internists, General
Family and General Practitioners
Nurse Practitioners
Physicians and Surgeons, All Other
Physical Therapists
Teacher Assistants
Coaches and Scouts
Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education
Child, Family, and School Social Workers
Ten Fastest Growing Occupations in Nation
1.  Includes only the 100 largest occupations that require at least an Associate’s degree.
Health
Other

GRAY
New Job Postings: Ten Most Requested Hard Skills in Nation1,2
Nationally, the most requested hard skill for jobs requiring a degree was quality assurance.
§  Programming languages such as SQL, Java, and JavaScript are among the most requested hard skills.
§  Despite the size and growth of health occupations, only Pediatrics made the top ten skills.
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
Quality Assurance
Structured query language
Java
Pediatrics
Technical support
Linux
Customer relationship management
Bilingual
Quality control
JavaScript
Ten Most-Requested Hard Skills in the US
IT
Health
Other

GRAY
New Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Hard Skills in the US1,2
The fastest growing hard skills are generally in computer science.
§  Human Resources Software, a new hard skill on our list, grew over 2,700% year-over-year.
§  Three of the ten fastest growing hard skills are new this period.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
D Language
Human resources software
Spring
Systems Integration
Cloud Computing
Amazon Web Services
DevOps
User Experience design
Python
Critical care
Ten Fastest-Growing Hard Skills Nationwide
1.  Includes only the 100 largest hard skills in occupations that require at least an Associate’s degree.
IT
Health
Other

GRAY
New Job Postings: Ten Most Requested Certifications in the US1,2
Nationally, Certified RN was the the most requested certification.
§  Many of the most requested certifications were related to an Allied Health occupation.
§  Government Security Clearances are often among the top 10 certifications.
§  This month, accounting showed up twice in the list.
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000
Certified Registered Nurse
Basic Life Support
Certification in Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation
Advanced Cardiac Life Support
Secret Clearance
Continuing Education
Accounting
Licensed Practical Nurse
Occupational Safety & Health Administration
Certified Public Accountant
Ten Most Requested Certifications in the US
September-November 2016
IT
Health
Other

GRAY
New Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Certifications in the US1,2
Like the 10 largest certifications, the fastest-growing certifications are generally from jobs in healthcare.
§  Accounting, new to the list, was the fastest growing certification.
§  Of the six new certifications on the fastest-growing list, five are outside of healthcare.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%
Accounting
American Academy of Nurse Practitioners
Pharmacy Technician
Doctor of Pharmacy
American Nurses Credentialing Center
Certification in Ethics
Engineer-In-Training
Six Sigma Green Belt
Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act -
EPA certification
Ten Fastest-Growing Certifications Nationally
September-November 2016
1.  Includes only the 100 largest certifications in occupations that require at least an Associate’s degree.
IT
Health
Other

GRAY
Agenda
1.  National
2.  Job Postings Trends
3.  New Ed – Inform to Empower
4.  Summary

GRAY
Key Demand Trends and Observations
§  Overall, inquiries continue to fall 8-9%.
─  Branded inquiries are rising
─  Which is oﬀset by a large decline in PPI
─  Big programs and big cities are leading the decline.
§  Inquiries and conversions for online programs are growing.
§  Inquiry growth for graduate programs has reversed.
§  Job postings for all degree levels are up – except for Bachelor’s degrees.
§  Health care and IT dominate the growth in job postings.
─  Accounting is also doing well.
─  Quality is a large, persistent theme in job postings.

GRAY
Strategies for Developing New Academic Programs: January 18 -20, 2017 – San Diego, CA
Gray will be presenting at the AI conference in San Diego on January 18-20.
Learn the art and science of selecting new academic programs. You will walk through
a set of criteria that should guide your decisions on which programs to Start. You will
leave this event better able to assess the potential for a new academic program,
including:
§  Fit with your institutional mission and goals
§  Operational feasibility given your capacity and resources
§  Prospective student enrollment
§  Internal support to get it up and running
§  Profitability and impact resulting from failure
For more information, please visit:
www.AcademicImpressions.com
Strategies for Developing New Academic Programs
January 18-20, San Diego, CA

GRAY
Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact:
Bob Atkins
CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com
@Gray_Associates
617.366.2836

GRAY
Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webcast
Please join us next month!
January Webcast
(December Results)
Thursday, January 26th at 2:00 PM EDT

2016 November GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education

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2016 November GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education