GRAYREPORTS Higher Education Demand Trends

GRAYREPORTS
Demand for Higher Education Programs
www.GrayAssociates.com
Results through September 2016

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GRAY
Agenda
1.  Inquiry and Conversion Trends:
1.  National
2.  Online and On-Campus
3.  Degree and Channel
2.  Integrated View of Student and Employer Demand:
1.  City and Program
2.  Job Postings Trends
3.  New Ed – Inform to Empower
4.  Summary

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-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2016
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
We will share data from 2014, 2015, and 2016.

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-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
National Inquiries
2014 2015 2016
Inquiries have decreased an average of 8% year-over-year in 2016.
-8%

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-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
National Inquiries
2014 2015 2016
In September, inquiry volumes decreased 5% year-over-year.
-5% YoY

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Branded Inquiries
Year-over-year, branded inquiries jumped 14% in September.
§  This is the fifth consecutive month of growth in branded inquiries for higher education programs.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
National Branded Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016
+14% YoY

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External Inquiries: Overall Results
External inquiries have fallen every month this year, by an average of 15% year-over-year.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
National External Inquiries
-15%

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External Inquiries: Overall Results
In September, External inquiries fell12%.
-12% YoY
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
National External Inquiries

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Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
In 2014 and 2015, conversion rates were volatile.
§  Since Q1 2014, quarterly rates have risen as little as 1% and as much as 22% over prior-year rates.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends
(Indexed to Q1 2014)
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a
January inquiry). Typically, the conversion rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
2.  Total includes unknown source type.
+11%
+22%
+1%

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Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
In 2016, conversion rates seem to be stabilizing, close to 2014 levels.
§  After being down 1% last month, Q2 2016 has now matured and risen 2% above the Q1 2014 level.
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the
conversion rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
2.  Total includes unknown source type.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends
(Indexed to Q1 2014)
+2%

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Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
For June inquiries, total student conversions fell 13% year-over-year.
§  Conversions are taking longer, so June might continue to improve a bit.
§  Conversions of May inquiries were down 17% YoY in last month’s results, and are now down 15% YoY.
§  As they mature, conversions of August and September inquiries are likely to reach last year’s levels.
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the
conversion rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Total Inquiry Conversions
2014 2015 2016
-13% YoY
Immature Months1

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61%
86% 89%
86%
92%
95%
50%
66%
79%
83%
86% 85%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6
National Conversions
Percent of Total Conversions by Month
14-Jul 15-Jan
Inquiry to Application: Conversion Maturity
Inquiries have been converting at a slower rate than in prior years.
§  In the example below, we looked at conversions of inquiries in July 2014 and January 2015.
─  For July 2014 inquiries, only 61% of the eventual total conversions converted in the first month.
─  For January 2015, this first-month number had decreased to 50% of the total eventual conversions.

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2014 $41.72 $41.81 $41.70 $42.45 $40.94 $44.23 $44.25 $44.00 $45.34 $45.43 $44.79 $42.18
2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75
2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.57 $45.20 $- $- $-
$30
$32
$34
$36
$38
$40
$42
$44
$46
$48
Average Price per Inquiry for PPI
Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
In September, the price of an External inquiry was nearly flat year-over-year.
§  So far in 2016, the average price for paid inquiries is up only 2% year-over-year.
Note: PPI means“Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.
-0.1%

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Agenda
1.  National
4.  Summary

GRAY
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online Programs
2014 2015 2016
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeYear-to-date, inquiries for online programs are flat year-over-year.
+0.1%

GRAY
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Inquiries
2014 2015 2016
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeIn September, inquiries for online programs rose 8% year-over-year.
§  This makes three growth months in a row: July and August both rose 15% year-over-year.
8% YoY

GRAY
Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
Conversions of June inquiries for online programs declined 10% year-over-year.
§  Conversions are taking longer, with some taking five or six months instead of just three.
§  For example, April inquiries continued to convert; they are now down 6% (down 9% last month).
§  July is lagging, but August looks as if it will beat last year. It is still too early to predict September.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
2014 2015 2016
Immature Months1
-10% YoY
1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January
conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

GRAY
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
In September, inquiries for on-campus higher-education programs dropped 17% YoY.
§  The first nine months of 2016 have fallen below year-ago levels by an average of 15%.
2012
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
2014 2015 2016
-17% YoY

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Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
Conversions for on-campus programs reached last years levels – down 0.6% YoY for June.
§  In another month or two, conversions of June inquiries might pass last year’s levels.
§  July and August may beat last year.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
2014 2015 2016
-1% YOY
Immature Months1

GRAY
Agenda
1.  National
4.  Summary

GRAY
-11%
-10%
-10%
-8%
-3%
65%
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Associate's degree
Master's degree
Bachelor's degree
Doctor's degree
Undergraduate certificate
Post-master's certificate
Quarterly Change in Inquiries
2016/2015 (June to August)
Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Trailing Three Months
Once again, Post-Master’s certificates were the only degree-level that grew.
§  Certificates out-performed degrees over the past three months.

GRAY
Inquiry Volumes by Channel – Trailing Three Months
For the most part, Branded inquiry channels outperformed External inquiries.
§  Aﬃliate – PPC was the fastest growing in Q3, a first for an external channel.
§  Social Media dropped to second, but continued to grow over 100% year over year.
§  Six diﬀerent Branded inquiry channels grew in the most recent quarter.
-58%
-53%
-41%
-35%
-34%
-28%
-21%
4%
18%
18%
27%
29%
91%
152%
235%
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%
PPC - Inbound Call: Branded
All Other Internal: Branded
PPL: External
Email: Branded
Referral: Branded
Display: Branded
Interactive: Branded
Organic: Branded
PPC: Branded
Affiliate: External
Offline Media: Branded
Website: Branded
Inbound Phone: Branded
Social Media: Branded
Affiliate - PPC: External
Quarterly Change in Inquiries by Channel
(June through August YoY)

GRAY
Agenda
1.  National
4.  Summary

GRAY
The Big 5 Programs: September Growth
Inquiries for all of the Big Five programs shrank more than 10% in September.
§  Criminal Justice/Police Science performed the best, but fell 11%.
§  Nursing continues to struggle, down 14%.
§  Medical Assistant continued to drop, down 23%.
§  Business Administration dropped about 30% at the Bachelor’s and Associate’s levels.
-11%
-14%
-23%
-29%
-31%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Criminal Justice Registered Nursing Medical Assistant Business Admin:
Bachelor's +
Business Admin:
Associate's -
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012
Year-over-Year Change in September Inquiries
2016 YoY % Change

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-12%
335%
21%
-7%
74%
52%
37% 30% 28%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
Public
Administration
Computer Systems
Analyst
Organizational
Leadership
Cosmetology Health Services
Administration
The Fast 5 Programs
2015 YoY % Change 2016 YoY % Change
The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth
Four new programs showed up in the five fastest-growing programs1.
§  At nearly 75%, Public Administration grew the fastest.
§  Cosmetology is the only repeat from last month.
1.  Includes the top 75 programs in inquiry volume since January 2012. 2. May reflect competitive marketing, or reporting by Gray’s data suppliers.

GRAY
Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities
None of the Big 5 cities grew year-over-year.
§  Philadelphia performed the best but still decreased 3% in September.
§  Los Angeles had the largest decline – a drop of 36%.
-18%
-20% -21%
-19%
-27%
-3%
-7%
-27% -28%
-36%-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Philadelphia, PA New York, NY Chicago, IL Atlanta, GA Los Angeles, CA
Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.

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Agenda
1.  National
4.  Summary

GRAY
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
National New Job Postings
2014 2015 2016
Overall New Job Postings (All Sources)1
New job postings have decreased an average of 7% year-over-year in 2016.
-7%
1.  Excludes Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers.

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16%
3%
16%
69%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Associate's
Bachelor's
Master's
Doctorate
National Quarterly Change in New Job Postings
2016/2015 (July to Sept)
National New Job Postings by Degree – Trailing Three Months1
Year-over-year, New Job Postings that require a degree grew in the past 3 months.
§  Compared to last year, job postings that require a Doctoral degree grew almost 70%.
§  Demand for employees with Bachelor’s degrees grew the least, just 3%.

GRAY
New Job Postings: The Big 5 Cities1
Two of the five cities with highest number of job postings grew year-over-year in 2016.
§  New York grew in both 2015 and 2016.
§  Atlanta popped up 38% in 2016.
§  Chicago, Houston, and San Francisco declined 4-6%.
6%
-12%
-20%
0%
13%
8%
-6% -4%
38%
-5%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
New York, NY Chicago, IL Houston, TX Atlanta, GA San Francisco, CA
Largest Five Cities for New Job Postings
July to September Year-over-Year Results

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New Job Postings: Ten Largest Occupations in Nation1,2
in the last 3 months, Registered Nursing had the most new job postings in the country.
§  The occupation Marketing Managers was second with 133,000 new postings.
§  The largest 10 occupations made up 27% of total new job postings.
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
Registered Nurses
Marketing Managers
Software Developers, Applications
Medical and Health Services Managers
Management Analysts
Computer User Support Specialists
Computer Systems Analysts
Sales Managers
Network and Computer Systems Administrators
General and Operations Managers
New Job Postings in Last 3 Months (Jul-Sep 2016)
Ten Largest Occupations in Nation
1.  Includes only the occupations that require at least an Associate’s degree.

GRAY
New Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Occupations in Nation1,2
The fastest-growing occupations are generally in the healthcare industry.
§  The four fastest-growing occupations are all medical doctors; they each grew over 100%.
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%
Psychiatrists
Internists, General
Family and General Practitioners
Physicians and Surgeons, All Other
Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists
Critical Care Nurses
Chief Executives
Physical Therapists
Nurse Practitioners
Food Service Managers
Ten Fastest Growing Occupations in Nation
1.  Includes only the biggest 100 occupations that require at least an Associate’s degree.

GRAY
New Job Postings: Ten Most Requested Hard Skills in Nation1,2
Nationally, for job postings that require a degree, the most requested hard skill is quality assurance.
§  Programming languages such as SQL, Java, and JavaScript are among the most requested hard skills.
§  Despite the size and growth of health occupations, only Pediatrics made the top ten skills.
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
Quality Assurance
Structured query language
Java
Pediatrics
Technical support
Linux
Customer relationship management
Bilingual
Quality control
JavaScript
Ten Most-Requested Hard Skills in the US

GRAY
New Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Hard Skills in the US1,2
The fastest-growing hard skills are generally in either software or allied health.
§  C/C++ grew an extraordinary 970% YoY in 2016.
§  Skills related to nursing are among fastest growing in the nation.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
C/C++
Emergency room
DevOps
Amazon Web Services
Tableau Software
Critical care
Behavioral health
Medical-Surgical Nursing
Pediatrics
Patient Electronic Medical Record
Ten Fastest-Growing Hard Skills Nationwide
970%

GRAY
New Job Postings: Ten Most Requested Certifications in the US1,2
Nationally, Certified RN was the the most requested certification.
§  Almost all the most requested certifications related to an allied health occupation.
§  Government Security Clearances are often among the top 10 certifications.
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000
Certified Registered Nurse
Basic Life Support
Certification in Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation
Advanced Cardiac Life Support
Secret Clearance
Licensed Practical Nurse
Occupational Safety & Health Administration
Board Certified
Certified Public Accountant
Pediatric Advanced Life Support
Ten Most Requested Certifications in the US
July-September 2016

GRAY
New Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Certifications in the US1,2
The fastest-growing certifications are often in healthcare and Nursing.
§  Security clearances were two of the ten fastest-growing certifications.
§  All the remaining certifications were related to a nursing or healthcare occupation.
0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 1000% 1200% 1400%
Public trust security clearance
Mental Health Nurse
Hospice and Palliative Care
Secret Clearance
Psychiatry
Doctor of Medicine
National League for Nursing Accrediting Commission
Commission on Collegiate Nursing Education
National Council Licensure Examination
Certified Family Nurse Practitioner
Ten Fastest-Growing Certifications Nationally
July-September 2016

GRAY
Agenda
1.  National
4.  Summary

Inform to Empower
Creating informative
education exploration to
empower students at all
stages of engagement

Quick Introduction
Craig Maslowsky
Founder and CEO
Past VP – Marketing and Enrollment

Yesterday’s higher ed market.
More predictable.
Higher barriers to entry.
old|ed

…has certainly grown – driven by
distance education and alternative
optionsold|ed

…in the
institutions adding online
offerings have entered and
crowded markets once
protected by geography and
brand recognition
old|ed

In the
•  It is increasingly
expensive to attract
and retain students.
•  Students are
behaving more like
consumers.
•  Engagement is
critical.

solution:
Relevant and informative
engagement at all stages of
the student life-cycle

Will this program prepare me for
the career I want?
How much will this cost me?
How long will this take me?
...here are the three
primary questions
today’s education
consumers want
answered...
3
cost/benefit analysis

Will this program prepare me for the career I want?
{typical .edu
experience}
?
most .edu sites require a lot of steps to find related
information, and it’s rarely personalized and specific.

the career I want?
?
{informative
experience}
Which presents an opportunity
for your institution to stand out.
{typical .edu
experience}

the career I want?
How long will this take
me?
Benefit:
Cost:

the career I want?
How long will this take
me?
Cost:
Benefit:

Benefit:
•  Create a clear line of sight to
future opportunities
•  Ensure access to career
alignment throughout the
student lifecycle
•  Organize and configure
available data to enable
communication of program
relevance

Attract
Explore
Engage
Enroll
•  Informed guidance
•  Program showcase
•  Clear expectations
•  Emphasis of relevance
•  Personalized
messages
•  Ongoing engagement
Valuable
opportunities
emerge to engage
prospects and
students
throughout their
lifecycle with the
institution.
Informed
personalization
presents ongoing
engagement
related to the
ultimate goal of
the student.
Opportunity to Engage

3 Steps Toward Engagement
1.  Identify related careers for top 10 programs
2.  Create content that illustrates HOW programs
prepare students:
§  Faculty interviews
§  Graduate interviews
§  Instruction-to-skills mapping
3.  Incorporate one additional email with this program
specific content into your communication plans

•  Informed guidance
•  Program showcase
•  Clear expectations
•  Emphasis of relevance
•  Personalized messages
•  Ongoing engagement
•  Course content
•  Program outcomes
•  Student experience
•  Available resources
•  Faculty profiles
•  Alumni data

Tools to get you there
•  New Ed provides web based applications which
allow institutions to effectively engage and
inform prospects and students
•  New Ed leverages the power of data, pre-
configured logic and optimized user
experiences
•  Institutions provide program data, we deliver
interactive tools for simple incorporation into
web and digital communications
•  Powered by Gray Associates data

Thank you!
Learn more @
www.newedinc.com
sales@newedinc.com

GRAY
Agenda
1.  National
4.  Summary

GRAY
Key Demand Trends and Observations
After a strong August, some positive trends continued into September.
§  Inquiry volumes fell 5%.
§  Branded and online inquiries continued to grow.
§  Conversions of June inquiries were down 13% YoY, but inquiries seem
to be continuing to convert much later than in past years.
§  Average inquiry prices were flat.
§  Surprisingly, Certificate programs grew faster than higher degrees.
§  Social Media continues to be a strong channel.
§  Better data and systems are available to support your decisions.
─  Where to focus your marketing—by program and market
─  What careers to focus on
─  What programs to Stop, Start, Sustain or Grow

GRAY
Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact:
Bob Atkins
CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com
@Gray_Associates
617.366.2836

GRAY
Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webcast
Please join us next month!
November Webcast
(October Results)
Tuesday, November 15th at 2:00 PM EDT

GRAYREPORTS Higher Education Demand Trends

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