2017 October GrayReports - Demand Trends for Higher Education

GRAYREPORTS
Demand for Higher Education Programs
www.GrayAssociates.com
Results through October 2017

617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2
GRAY
For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: Sales@GrayAssociates.com
Who Is Gray?
Program and Market
Evaluation Data
Employment
Placement RatesStudent Demand
Demographics
Wages
Programs Price ProjectsPlace
§ Program Evaluation System
§ Program profiles
§ Program location
§ Market selection
§ Location selection
§ Campus consolidation
§ Price elasticity
§ Price positioning
§ Price optimization
§ Business strategy
§ Strategy implementation
§ Complex analytics
Advanced Analytics
Predictive Models
Geo-Analytics
Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders
Competition
Enhanced Crosswalks
Employer Requirements

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Agenda
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches
1. National
2. Online and On-Campus
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
2. Emerging Programs
3. Program of the Month: Human Services
4. Summary

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0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels
2015 2016 2017
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
Total inquiry volumes have been declining for several years.
§ Declining unemployment rate
§ Falling interest in post-secondary education
§ Marketers shifting away from paid inquiries

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0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
National Inquiries
2015 2016 2017
Year-to-date inquiry volume is off by 10%.
-10%

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0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
National Inquiries
2015 2016 2017
October was much better than average, only dropping 3%.
-3%

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Conversion Maturity
It takes six months for inquiries to “mature.”
§ 60% of conversions take place in the month in which the inquiry is received.
§ It takes six months for 95% of conversions to take place.
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Month 1
January
Month 2
February
Month 3
March
Month 4
April
Month 5
May
Month 6
June
Month 7
July
Month 8
August
Month 9
September
Conversion of 2017 January Inquiries
Versus 2016 January Conversions
60%
78%
87% 90% 89%
95% 97% 99% 100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Percentage of
Conversions
Months After Inquiry
Inquiries: Time to Maturity
Conversions of January 2017 Inquiries

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80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends
(Indexed to Q1 2014)
Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
In 2017, conversion rates are well above our 2014 baseline.
§ Q2 2017 beat the baseline by 30%.
§ Despite being immature, Q3 2017 is already 40% above the baseline.
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March is counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the
application rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.
2. Total includes unknown source type.
+40%

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Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
For July inquiries, total conversions increased 17% year-over-year.
§ August has already reached 2016 levels.
§ September and October are on track to beat last year.
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the
application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Total Inquiry Conversions
2015 2016 2017
+17% YoY
Immature Months1

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2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.81 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75
2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.53 $45.13 $44.77 $44.89 $45.49
2017 $45.39 $45.30 $45.50 $45.36 $45.51 $45.76 $45.19 $44.52 $45.17 $46.15 $- $-
$30
$32
$34
$36
$38
$40
$42
$44
$46
$48
Average Price per Inquiry for PPI
Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
For the first time, the average price of an external inquiry is above $46.
§ In October, prices were up 3% year-over-year.
§ This is the highest price in the Gray dataset, which started in 2012.
Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.
+3%

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Student Inquiries: 10 Largest Inquiry Budgets
1.00
0.98
0.63
0.57
0.50
0.45
0.42
0.33
0.31
0.31
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00
Business Administration (Bach.+)
Medical/Clinical Assistant
Medical Office Assistant/Specialist
Business Administration (Assoc.-)
Psychology, General
Medical Insurance Coding Specialist
Health Care Administration
HVAC Maintenance Technology
Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller
Web/Digital/Multimedia Design
10 Largest Inquiry Budgets
(October 2017)
Business Administration now has the highest spending on inquiries.
Index to Max

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Student Inquiries: Budget Spending for 10 Largest Programs
61%
34%
22%
10%
6%
5%
0%
-8%
-9%
-21%
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Health Care Administration
Psychology, General
Medical Insurance Coding Specialist
HVAC Maintenance Technology
Business Administration (Bach.+)
Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller
Medical Office Assistant/Specialist
Medical/Clinical Assistant
Web/Digital/Multimedia Design
Business Administration (Assoc.-)
October 2017 Inquiry Budget Trends
10 Programs With the Largest Budgets
§ The program with the largest budget, Business Administration (Bach.+), increased 6% year-over-year.
In October, spending increased in 7 of the 10 programs with the largest budgets.
% Change YoY

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Agenda
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
4. Summary

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Inquiries for Online Programs
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for online programs grew 6% year-over-year in October.
§ After three consecutive declining months, volumes are growing again.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online Programs
All Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016 2017
+6%

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Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
Conversions for online higher education programs increased 31% in July.
§ This is the 12th consecutive increase in conversions.
§ August has already passed last year.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
2015 2016 2017
1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January
conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.
+31%
YoY
Immature Months1

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Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
In 2017, inquiries for on-campus academic programs continued their decline.
§ In October, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 15% year-over-year.
2012
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
2015 2016 2017
-15% YoY

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Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
Conversions for on-campus programs fell 19% year-over-year in July.
§ This marks the 11th consecutive month of declining conversions.
§ But, August might reach last year’s levels.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
2015 2016 2017
-19% YOY
1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January
conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.
Immature Months1

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Agenda
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
4. Summary

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Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Year-Over-Year Change
Doctoral degrees were the fastest-growing degree level.
§ The higher degree levels continued to outperform lower-level degrees.
-9%
-8%
2%
4%
10%
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Associate's degree
Undergraduate certificate
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Doctor's degree
Change in Inquiries
October 2017 YoY

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Agenda
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
4. Summary

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Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities
One of The Big 5 Cities grew year-over-year.
§ Similar to last month, Los Angeles saw the only increase, growing 3% in October.
§ Although down, all four of the other cities shrank less in October than they did in September.
-28%
-25%
-8%
5%
-34%
3%
-4%
-6% -7%
-12%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Los Angeles, CA Houston, TX New York, NY Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL
Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012
Year-over-Year Change in October Inquiries
2016 YoY % Change 2017 YoY % Change
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.

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The Big 5 Programs: October Growth
Declines slowed in all of The Big 5 Programs.
7%
-4%
-8% -8%
-10%-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Business Admin:
Bachelor's +
Criminal Justice Business Admin:
Associate's
Medical Assistant Registered Nursing
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012
2017 YoY % Change

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129%
95%
83%
52% 48%
0%
50%
100%
150%
Hospitality
Administration
Human Services Health Services
Administration
Health Care
Administration
Christian Studies
The Fast 5 Programs
2017 YoY % Change
The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth
All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew nearly 50% or more.
§ Hospitality Administration and Health Services Administration are both repeats from last month.
§ This month is very encouraging considering one of the Fast 5 in September was declining.
1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.

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Agenda
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
4. Summary

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Gray’s New Program Tracker
Since we began tracking new programs, most announcements are for health and business programs.
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
10
10
10
11
11
11
12
12
12
12
13
17
20
33
39
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Associate's in Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse.
Bachelor's in Civil Engineering, General.
Bachelor's in Sport and Fitness Administration/Management.
Master's in Accounting.
Master's in Health/Health Care Administration/Management.
Undergrad Certificate in Brewing and Fermentation
Undergrad Certificate in Computer and Information Systems Security/Information …
Undergrad Certificate in Data Science and Analysis
Bachelor's in Accounting.
Bachelor's in Public Health, General.
Master's in Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse.
Undergrad certificate in Welding Technology/Welder.
Bachelor's in Kinesiology and Exercise Science.
Bachelor's in Mechanical Engineering.
Undergrad Certificate in Medical/Clinical Assistant.
Associate's in Computer and Information Systems Security/Information Assurance.
Master's in Data Science and Analysis
Undergrad Certificate in Nursing Assistant/Aide and Patient Care Assistant/Aide.
Bachelor's in Psychology, General.
Doctoral in Educational Leadership and Administration, General.
Doctoral in Physical Therapy/Therapist.
Master's in Physician Assistant.
Bachelor's in Computer and Information Systems Security/Information Assurance.
Bachelor's in Business Administration and Management, General.
Doctoral in Nursing Practice.
Master's in Business Administration and Management, General.
Bachelor's in Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse.
New Program Announcements via Google Daily Alerts
New Programs by Announcement Frequency – All Award Levels, 6-Digit CIP-Level
Health
Business
Emerging

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Agenda
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
4. Summary

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Human Services: Job Postings
In recent years, Job Postings for Human Services-related jobs have been volatile.
31,379
47,384 46,859
59,448
54,939
39,340
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD
Job
Postings
Job Postings
Human Services
Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. November 1, 2016-October 31, 2017
SOCs: Social and Human Service Assistants (21-1003) and Social and Community Service Managers (11-9151) were used in this analysis.

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Human Services: Salary
Salaries are typically less than $50,000 for Human Services-related jobs.
3,383
2,886
1,963
1,073
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
Less than $35,000
$35,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $74,999
More than $75,000
Salary Distribution (Advertised)
§ The mean salary is $48,000.
§ The median salary is $40,000.
Note: Most job postings do not include salary data.
Number of Postings Citing the Salary Level

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Human Services: Education (Minimum Advertised)
Among job postings that specify education, 62% of job postings cite a Bachelor’s degree.
19%
8%
62%
10%
1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
High school or vocational training
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Doctoral degree
Most Frequently Cited Minimum Education

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Human Services: Employer Requirements
Postings for Human Services require a mix of Health Care and Business skills.
0.99
0.99
0.94
0.77
0.65
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.50
0.48
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.43
0.42
0.42
0.38
0.37
0.37
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10
Counsel clients or patients regarding personal issues or…
Match clients to public or community services
Advise individuals regarding marriage
Advise clients or community groups on health issues
Help clients get needed services or resources
Establish relationships with clients and customers
Maintain relationships with clients and customers
Maintain relationships with stakeholders
Maintain relationships with vendors
Counsel clients or patients regarding substance abuse issues
Plan social behavior learning activities
Identify interrelationships among individuals or social groups
Identify interrelationships among social statistics or indicators
Plan esteem building activities for children
Collect personal information
Refer patients or clients to community services or resources
Advise individuals regarding financial matters
Counsel people regarding grief situations
Maintain cooperative working relationships with community…
Prepare technical reports or presentations associated with…
Human Services: Primary Work Activities
Fit with Job
Source: Gray Associates Program Evaluation System: Employer Requirements
Low Fit with Job High

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Human Services: Tools Employees Need to Know
Human Services workers need strong skills in office technology.
§ Microsoft Office comprises 6 of the 17 tools Human Services workers need to know.
99
99
99
99
99
99
78
78
78
78
62
54
54
49
49
49
39
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Desktop computers
Microsoft Excel
Microsoft Office software
Microsoft Word
Personal computers
Web browser software
Laptop computers
Microsoft Access
Microsoft Outlook
Multi-line telephone systems
Microsoft PowerPoint
10-key calculators
PointClickCare software
Computer laser printers
Laser facsimile machines
Photocopying equipment
Database software
Human Services
Tools Employees Need to Know
Source: Gray Associates’ Program Evaluation System, Employer Needs: Tools
Low Fit with Job High

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Program Scorecard: Student Demand
Human Services has more inquiries than 98% of other programs. Most inquiries are for online programs.

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Program Scorecard: Competition
Most programs have fewer competitors.

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Competitors: Human Services
Most of the market leaders are for-profits with very large Associate’s and Bachelor’s programs.
Institution Sector City 2014 2015 2016
Grand Canyon University Private for-profit, 4-year or above Phoenix 285 352 456
University of Phoenix Private for-profit, 4-year or above Phoenix 622 459 338
University of Phoenix Private for-profit, 4-year or above Phoenix 663 420 300
University of Phoenix Private for-profit, 4-year or above Tempe 540 399 293
University of Phoenix Private for-profit, 4-year or above Tempe 576 365 261
Laureate Education, Inc. Private for-profit, 4-year or above Minneapolis 61 155 241
Lindsey Wilson College Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above Columbia 0 0 223
Columbia College Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above Columbia 207 216 212
Columbia College Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above Columbia 169 176 196
University of Phoenix Private for-profit, 4-year or above Sacramento 271 179 155
University of Phoenix Private for-profit, 4-year or above Tucson 262 193 142
University of Phoenix Private for-profit, 4-year or above Tucson 279 177 126
Capella Education Company Private for-profit, 4-year or above Minneapolis 150 124 123
Kaplan Higher Education Corporation Private for-profit, 4-year or above Los Angeles 117 120 123
Kaplan Higher Education Corporation Private for-profit, 4-year or above Los Angeles 113 113 112
Kaplan Higher Education Corporation Private for-profit, 4-year or above Milwaukee 103 105 107
Wilmington University Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above New Castle 70 92 107
University of Phoenix Private for-profit, 4-year or above San Diego 183 121 105
University of Wisconsin System Public, 4-year or above Oshkosh 114 115 105
Education Management Corporation Private for-profit, 4-year or above Phoenix 0 81 102
Kaplan Higher Education Corporation Private for-profit, 4-year or above Milwaukee 99 99 98
Wayland Baptist University Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above Plainview 92 75 91
State University of New York System Public, 2-year Syracuse 0 0 91
Post University Private for-profit, 4-year or above Waterbury 49 46 75
University of Phoenix Private for-profit, 4-year or above Fresno 111 73 63

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Program Scorecard: Employment and Fit
There is a large number of job postings, but the need for formal education is unclear.

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Program Scorecard

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Agenda
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
4. Summary

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Key Demand Trends and Observations
§ The decline in total inquiries slowed from 10% to 3%.
§ Conversion rates and conversions are rising.
─ Conversion rates jumped 40% vs. benchmark.
─ July conversions rose 17%.
§ Online programs led the turnaround.
─ Inquiries for online programs grew 6%
─ Conversions rose 31%
§ On-ground continued a rapid decline.
─ Inquiries for on-ground fell 15%
─ Conversions dropped 19%
§ Gray’s Program Evaluation System is an increasingly robust tool.
─ Multiple data sources on student demand, employment, and competition
─ Now includes data on employer needs, including work activities and tools

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Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact:
Bob Atkins
CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com
@Gray_Associates
617.366.2836

GRAY
Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webcast
Please join us next month!
December Webcast
(November Results)
Wednesday, December 20th at 2:00 PM ET

2017 October GrayReports - Demand Trends for Higher Education

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2017 October GrayReports - Demand Trends for Higher Education