Key Demand Trends and Observations for Higher Education Programs - We’re finally seeing consistent growth in overall student demand. - Both Google search and Gray inquiry data confirm this trend. - But all the growth is in online; on-ground continues to decline. - Prices for inquiries were at all-time highs, but have begun to drop. - Demand growth rates are higher in more rural areas. - Program contribution can and should be included in program reviews.

1. Data • Insights • Strategy
www.GrayAssociates.com
Data • Insights • Strategy
www.GrayAssociates.com
Demand For Higher Education
Programs
Results through August 2018

2. Confidential 2
Who Is Gray?
Program and Market
Evaluation Data
Employment
Placement Rates
Student Demand
Demographics
Wages
Programs Price ProjectsPlace
§ Program Evaluation System
§ Program profiles
§ Program location
§ Market selection
§ Location selection
§ Campus consolidation
§ Price elasticity
§ Price positioning
§ Price optimization
§ Business strategy
§ Strategy implementation
§ Complex analytics
Advanced Analytics
Predictive Models
Geo-Analytics
Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders
Competition
Employer Requirements
Program
Economics
New

3. 3Confidential
§ Inquiries
- National
- Online & On-Campus
- Program, Degree, & City
§ Google Search Trends
- Programs
- Brands
- Growth and Decline
§ Program Sustainability
- Gray Perspective
§ Summary

4. Confidential 4
§ In our webinars, we share data for the last three years.
§ The data includes 600,000 to 700,000 inquiries per month for over five years.
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
Gray has tracked demand for several years.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

5. Confidential 5
§ August volume rose 1% year-over-year.
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
Inquiry volumes have increased year-over-year for the past five months.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
+ 1%

6. Confidential 6
§ A few more May conversions will come in, so they will eventually exceed last year’s.
§ June 2018 has already passed June 2017.
§ July is on track to beat last year.
Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
So far conversions of May 2018 have decreased 1% year-over-year.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Total Inquiry Conversions
All Programs and Award Levels
2016 2017 2018
1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry).
Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries are received.
Immature Months1
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
-1%
YoY

7. Confidential 7
§ Month over month, August prices continued to fall from May’s high of $49.48 to $45.39.
§ Year-over-year prices rose 1.8%, but are at their lowest level since September 2017.
Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
For the past 11 months, the average price per inquiry has risen year-over-year.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2016 $45.1 $45.9 $44.7 $44.8 $42.4 $44.9 $44.3 $44.5 $45.1 $44.7 $44.8 $45.4
2017 $45.3 $45.2 $45.5 $45.3 $45.5 $45.7 $45.2 $44.5 $45.0 $46.0 $45.9 $46.7
2018 $47.1 46.56 46.33 47.41 49.48 48.77 46.19 45.39 - - - -
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
Average Price per Inquiry for PPI
All Programs and Award Levels
+2.4%
YoY
Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

8. 8Confidential
§ Inquiries
- National
- Online & On-Campus
- Program, Degree, & City
§ Google Search Trends
- Programs
- Brands
- Growth and Decline
§ Program Sustainability
- Gray Perspective
§ Summary

9. Confidential 9
Inquiries for Online Programs
Inquiries for online programs grew 7% year-over-year in August.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online Programs
All Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
+7%

10. Confidential 10
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
In August, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 10% year-over-year.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
All Programs and Award Levels
2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
-10% YoY

11. 11Confidential
§ Inquiries
- National
- Online & On-Campus
- Program, Degree, & City
§ Google Search Trends
- Programs
- Brands
- Growth and Decline
§ Program Sustainability
- Gray Perspective
§ Summary

12. Confidential 12
The Big 5 Programs: August Growth Year-Over-Year
Following a strong July, Criminal Justice and Healthcare Administration rose again.
19%
13%
-1%
-3%
-22%-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Criminal Justice Healthcare
Administration
Business
Administration
Registered Nursing Medical Assistant
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012
Year-over-Year Change in August Inquiries
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

13. Confidential 13
The Fast 5 Programs:
The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth
Computer Programming grew more than 100% year-over-year in August.
106%
57%
47% 42% 40%
0%
50%
100%
150%
Computer
Programming
Cybersecurity Health
Services/Health
Sciences
Entrepreneurship Allied Health
Diagnostic,
Intervention, and
Treatment
The Fast 5 Programs
Year-over-Year Change in August Inquiries
§ In August 2018, all of the Fast 5 grew by at least 40%.
1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

14. Confidential 14
Inquiry Volumes by Degree: Year-Over-Year Change
August was a great month for Doctoral inquiries.
-21%
5%
-1%
3%
17%
-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Undergraduate certificate
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Doctor's degree
Change in Inquiries
August YoY
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

15. Confidential 15
Online Inquiries: Year-Over-Year Inquires by State
Year-to-date, Arkansas has grown the fastest year-over-year (18.58%).
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

16. Confidential 16
Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities
In August 2018, inquiries increased in just two of The Big 5 Cities.
§ Two cities fell over 10%: Philadelphia and Chicago.
10%
-24%
-4%
0%
-13%
11% 10%
-3%
-13%
-21%
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
Los Angeles, CA Houston, TX New York, NY Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL
Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012
Year-over-Year Change in August Inquiries
2017 YoY % Change 2018 YoY % Change
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

17. 17Confidential
§ Inquiries
- National
- Online & On-Campus
- Program, Degree, & City
§ Google Search Trends
- Programs
- Brands
- Growth and Decline
§ Program Sustainability
- Gray Perspective
§ Summary

18. Confidential 18
§ Gray tracks search volume for the 200 largest higher education programs.
- In 2016, these programs produced 67% of all completions.
- We track approximately 25 keywords for each program.
Google Search Trends: Programs
Gray’s Google search index continued to rise with a 5.4% increase in August.
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Google Searches
200 Largest Programs* 2016 2017 2018
*Google Searches for 25 keywords for each of the 200 largest programs based on IPEDS completions
+5.4%

19. Confidential 19
§ Gray tracks search volume for a sample of 75 higher education brands.
§ EDU brand search declined four of the last seven months.
§ August broke the trend.
Google Search Trend: Brands
Gray’s index of year-over-year Google search volume for EDU brands rose 1.7% in August.
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Google Searches
75 Brands 2016 2017 2018
Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for 75 Brands.

20. Confidential 20
Shrinking Programs
Google searches are falling fast for Teaching and Hospitality programs.
These programs all appeared in August’s fastest-declining programs
-68%
-43%
-43%
-31%
-29%
-26%
-25%
-22%
-80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%
Hotel/Motel Administration/Management
Education, General
Hospitality Administration/Management, General
Criminal Justice/Safety Studies
Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science, General
Elementary Education and Teaching
Chemistry, General
Teacher Education, Multiple Levels
Fastest-declining Programs
August Google Searches
Teaching
Hospitality
Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for Largest 200 IPEDS Programs.

21. Confidential 21
§ Ohio State University is the only school not in August’s fastest growing brands.
Fastest-growing Brands
In our sample of 75, the fastest-growing brands include very different schools.
7%
8%
12%
12%
13%
13%
17%
19%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Harvard University
Ohio State University-Main Campus
Florida Career College
University of Wyoming
College for America, SNHU
Western Governors University
West Coast University
Universal Technical Institute
Fastest-growing Brands
Google Searches
Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for Largest 200 IPEDS Programs.

22. 22Confidential
§ Inquiries
- National
- Online & On-Campus
- Program, Degree, & City
§ Google Search Trends
- Programs
- Brands
- Growth and Decline
§ Program Sustainability
- Gray Perspective
§ Summary

23. Confidential 23
Program Sustainability: An Integrated View
A heathy program meets institutional, academic, financial, and market requirements.
Program
Economics
Institutional
Mission
Academic
Standards
Program
Markets
Foundations of Program Sustainability

24. Confidential 24
Program Economics: Methodology
Accumulate student revenue and instructor cost per credit hour by course.
-
+
}= Program Cost
and Revenue

25. Confidential 25
Program Economics: Program Scorecard
The Economic Scorecard includes comparisons to the college’s other programs.
§ Metrics per SCH enable apples to apples comparisons with other programs.
§ The color coding shows the program’s rank vs. other programs at the college.
Nursing Program Contribution
Community College

26. Confidential 26
§ The table below shows some examples of additional cost departments and how each one can
be allocated differently based on its association to programs.
Program Economics: Indirect Costs
Indirect costs must also be factored in when considering contribution by program.

27. Confidential 27
Program Portfolio Analysis
Some portfolios are much more efficient than the norm.
Institution. Size proportional
to completions.

28. Confidential 28
Program Portfolio Analysis
Ideally, an institution gains share in large, growing programs in healthy markets.
Circle. Proportional to
Program Size
Losing Share
Gaining Share

29. 29Confidential
§ Inquiries
- National
- Online & On-Campus
- Program, Degree, & City
§ Google Search Trends
- Programs
- Brands
- Growth and Decline
§ Program Sustainability
- Gray Perspective
§ Summary

30. Confidential 30
§ We’re finally seeing consistent growth in overall student demand.
§ Both Google search and Gray inquiry data confirm this trend.
§ But all the growth is in online; on-ground continues to decline.
§ Prices for inquiries were at all-time highs, but have begun to drop.
§ Demand growth rates are higher in more rural areas.
§ Program contribution can and should be included in program reviews.
Key Demand Trends and Observations

31. Data • Insights • Strategy
www.GrayAssociates.com
Data • Insights • Strategy
www.GrayAssociates.com
Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webcast
October Webcast (September Results)
Thursday, October 25th at 2:00 PM ET
31