This presentation highlights all of the sources your institution can use to evaluate employer needs for your graduates. We will also share the limitations of each data source, so you can use them more safely.
For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is the best source for total employment in a given occupation. However, 85% of BLS growth projections are off by 50% or more. And 42% of BLS's growth projections are off by more than 100%. This presentation will help you understand the major employment datasets, so you can avoid their pitfalls and use them effectively to guide program decisions.
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Evaluating Markets for Programs
Best-practices: inclusive process with sound data on four topics.
Student
Demand
February 2
Employment
March 2
Degree
Fit
March 30
Competitive
Intensity
March 30
Decision-Making Process
April 22
3. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 3
Evaluating Markets for Programs
Best-practices: inclusive process with sound data on four topics.
Student
Demand
February 2
Employment
March 2
Degree
Fit
March 30
Competitive
Intensity
March 30
Decision-Making Process
April 22
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Employment Opportunity Data: BLS
BLS surveys employers to estimate employment by Standard Occupation Code (SOC).
SOCs are assigned to all people who do similar work
49-9052.00
Telephone Line Installers and Repairers29-1065.00
Pediatrician
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NCES crosswalks intentionally draw a tight link between programs and SOCs.
NCES Crosswalks
History, General
CIP 54.0101
Managers, All Other
SOC 11-9199
Historians
SOC 19-3093
Source: National Center for Education Statistics: SOC 2010 mapped to CIP.
History Teachers, Postsecondary
SOC 25-1125
Secondary School Teachers, Except Special
and Career/Technical Education
SOC 25-2031
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1 4
462
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
CIPs (Programs) NCES Matched SOCs Actual Employment: SOCs
Count of Programs and Occupations
CIP 54.0101 History, General
Reality: Loose Alignment, especially for Liberal Arts
NCES Crosswalks
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Gray analysis of over 2.0 million records.
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Even for one program, occupations are very diverse—from CEO to salesperson.
ACS Actual Fields of Employment
11%
7%
4%
4%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0% 5% 10% 15%
Lawyers, Judges, other Judicial
Teachers: Elem. & Mid. School
Postsecondary Teachers
Miscellaneous Managers
Secondary School Teachers
Education Administrators
Chief Executives and Legislators
Clergy
Retail Salespersons
First-line Supervisors: Retail
Administrative Assistants
Management Analysts
Sales Reps, Wholesale and Manufacturing
Accountants and Auditors
Librarians
Physicians and Surgeons
First-line Supervisors: Non-Retail Sales
Customer Service Representatives
Financial Managers
General and Operations Managers
What do History Majors Really Do?
Percentage of History Majors by Occupation
High Status
Education
Other
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85% of BLS projected growth rates are off by 50% or more.
BLS Forecast Accuracy
2%
3%
10%
21%
23% 23%
19%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
<10% 10-25% 25-50% 50-75% 75-100% 100-150% 150+
Percentage
of SOCs
Percentage Error
BLS Forecast Error
Actual Employment vs. Projected Employment Growth
2012-2015
Source: BLS Occupational Employment Statistics and BLS Employment Projections 2012-2022.
Note: BLS forecasts are for 2022. BLS 2012 base and annual growth rate vs. actual growth from 2012 to 2015.
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Job Postings: Employer-Site or Total?
Job-posting data come from three sources, which vary in quality.
Job Sites
Recruiters
Employers ✔
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10%
3%
0%
-2%
-10% 0% 10% 20%
High school or vocational training
Associate's degree
Graduate or professional degree
Bachelor's degree
2016 YoY Change in Job Postings*
(January through December)
Job Postings: Required Degree Level
National Job Postings illustrate degree requirements and trends.
Source: Data from Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017.
Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions.
Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies.
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Job Postings: Geographic Density
Employment is a very local phenomenon, led by the West Coast.
Source: Data from Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017.
Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions.
Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies.
Map circle size represents ratio of job postings to employed population.
Metro
Area
Job
Pos-ngs
per
10,000
people
employed
Portland-‐Vancouver-‐Hillsboro
307
San
Francisco-‐Oakland-‐Hayward
301
Sea>le-‐Tacoma-‐Bellevue,
275
Denver-‐Aurora-‐Lakewood,
259
Washington-‐Arlington-‐Alexandria
256
Atlanta-‐Sandy
Springs-‐Roswell
230
Dallas-‐Fort
Worth-‐Arlington
219
Phoenix-‐Mesa-‐Sco>sdale
209
Boston-‐Cambridge-‐Nashua
195
Philadelphia-‐Camden-‐Wilmington
189
New
York-‐Newark-‐Jersey
City
159
Los
Angeles-‐Long
Beach-‐Anaheim
148
Houston-‐The
Woodlands-‐Sugar
Land
146
Chicago-‐Naperville-‐Elgin,
139
Miami-‐Fort
Lauderdale-‐West
Palm
Beach
135
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Job Postings: The Big 5 Cities
Employer demand trends vary substantially by location.
6%
-9%
19%
23%
15%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
New York, NY Houston, TX San Francisco, CA Atlanta, GA Los Angeles, CA
2016 YoY Job Posting Growth
Five Cities with the Most Job Postings
Source: Data from Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017.
Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions.
Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies.
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Job Postings: Salaries in the Big 5 Cities
Wages also vary by location.
649 758
371 473 781
908 527
476 283
704
1,651
756
842
313
878
2,121
567
1,874
1,251
1,010
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
New York, NY Houston, TX San Francisco, CA Atlanta, GA Los Angeles, CA
Five Cities with the Most Job Postings
2016 Salary Distribution
More than $75,000
$50,000 to $74,999
$35,000 to $49,999
Less than $35,000
Avg. Salary $70,716 $57,014 $81,255 $77,996 $62,684
Source: Data from Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. Technologies.
Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions.
Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies. Excludes job postings without salary information.
Job
Postings
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Job Postings: Ten Largest Occupations
Healthcare and IT took the top five slots for job posting volume.
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000
Registered Nurses
Managers, All Other
Computer Occupations, All Other
Software Developers, Applications
Medical and Health Services Managers
Sales Managers
General and Operations Managers
Human Resources Specialists
Management Analysts
Financial Managers
Job Postings in 2016
Ten Largest Occupations
Source: Data from Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017.
Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions that require a college degree (Associate’s or higher).
Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies.
Managers
Healthcare
IT
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The fastest-growing occupations are dominated by healthcare and education.
Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Occupations
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education
Pharmacists
Medical Equipment Repairers
Education Administrators, Preschool and
Special Education Teachers, All Other
Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists
Radiologic Technologists
Chemists
Respiratory Therapists
Speech-Language Pathologists
Job Postings in 2016
Ten Fastest-Growing Occupations in the U.S.
Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017.
Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions that require a college degree (Associate’s or higher).
Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies.
Education
Healthcare
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Job Postings: Ten Most Requested Skill Clusters
The top skill cluster is Microsoft Office.
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
IT: Microsoft Office and Productivity Tools
Business: People Management
Customer and Client Support: Basic Customer
Finance: Budget Management
Business: Project Management
Sales: General Sales
Administration: Scheduling
Business: Business Process and Analysis
Business: Business Management
Business: Business Strategy
Job Postings in 2016
Ten Most-Requested Skill-Clusters
Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017.
Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions that require a college degree (Associate’s or higher).
Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies.
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Job Postings: Most Requested Specialized Skills
Microsoft Excel is the most frequently-requested specialized skill.
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
Microsoft Excel
Microsoft Office
Budgeting
Scheduling
Supervisory Skills
Customer Service
Project Management
Microsoft Powerpoint
Sales
Microsoft Word
Job Postings in 2016
Ten Most-Requested Specialized Skills in the US
Source: Data from Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017.
Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions that require a college degree (Associate’s or higher).
Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies.
Microsoft
Other
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Half of the ten fastest-growing specialized skill clusters are in healthcare.
Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Skill Clusters
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Supply Chain and Logistics: Inventory
Health Care: Pharmacy
Finance: Cash Management
Health Care: Medical Procedure and Regulation
Health Care: Medical Records
Marketing and Public Relations: Packaging and
Administration: Office Machines
Health Care: Patient Reception
Health Care: Medical Billing and Coding
Finance: Financial Advisement
Job Postings in 2016
Ten Fastest-Growing Skill Clusters
Source: Data from Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017.
Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions that require a college degree (Associate’s or higher).
Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies.
Other
Healthcare
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Job Postings: Ten Most Requested Certifications
Nationally, healthcare, especially RN, dominates the jobs requiring certification.
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000120,000
Registered Nurse
Security Clearance
Project Management Certification (e.g., PMP)
Basic Cardiac Life Support Certification
Certified Public Accountant (CPA)
Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS)
Series 7
American Heart Association Certificate
Cert. Info. Sys. Security. Pro. (CISSP)
Nurse Practitioner
Job Postings in 2016
Ten Most-Requested Certifications in the U.S.
1. Includes only the 200 largest certifications in occupations that require at least an Associate’s degree.
Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017.
Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions.
Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies.
Other
Healthcare
37. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 37
Evaluating Markets for Programs
Best-practices: gather sound data on four topics.
Student
Demand
February 2
Employment
March 2
Degree
Fit
March 30
Competitive
Intensity
March 30
39. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 39
Summary
§ BLS data is readily available, but is dated and a weak indicator of trends.
§ Job posting data is vital for trends in employment growth, skills and certifications.
§ Aligning labor data (SOCs) with programs (CIPs) is hard and error-prone.
§ Numbers for one program lack the context needed to interpret the data.
§ Employment is only one part of the puzzle.
§ As a result, DIY is quite expensive, time-consuming, and error-prone.
§ Gray’s Program Evaluation System can do the heavy lifting for you.
Assessing employer demand in your markets is no easy task.
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Evaluating Markets for Programs
On March 30th we will share best practices for assessing Competition and Fit.
Student
Demand
February 2
Employment
March 2
Degree
Fit
March 30
Competitive
Intensity
March 30
Decision-Making Process
April 22