Brief description and illustrative show case on the palm oil outlook.

1. INDONESIA’S PALM OIL OUTLOOK
2011-2020
Suhardiyoto HaryadiSuhardiyoto Haryadi

2. INDONESIA’S PALM OIL OUTLOOK
2011-2020
12/6/2010Inonesia's Palm Oil Outlook 2011-20202
 Edible Oil Market 3
 Rising Global Demand 4
 Indonesia’s Production 5
 IndonesiaTakes the Lead 6
 World Supply and Demand 7
 WorldTrade 8
 Commodity Boom 9
 Indonesia’s Major-
Producers 10
 Corporate Performance 11
 Indonesia’s 20 Richest 12
 Promising Global-
Economy 13
 Price Projection 2011-2020 14
 Expansion Areas 15
 Controversy and Solution 16
 Conclusion: Sustainable
Palm Oil 17
TABLE OF CONTENTS

3. EDIBLE OIL MARKET
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Source: USDA
3 Inonesia's Palm Oil Outlook 2011-2020

4. RISING GLOBAL DEMAND
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“Indonesian Palm Oil Growth Critical to Global Edible Oil Supply”
Source: USDA Commodity Intelligent Report, October 8, 2010
4 Inonesia's Palm Oil Outlook 2011-2020

5. INDONESIA’S PRODUCTION
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Indonesia’s palm oil production has risen by 13.8 million tons
or 192%, while exports have increased 331% over the past 10
years, from 4.3 million tons to 18.4 million tons.
5 Inonesia's Palm Oil Outlook 2011-2020

6. INDONESIA TAKES THE LEAD
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7. WORLD SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Palm Oil Production (000 MT) Palm Oil Consumption (000 MT)
12/6/2010
COUNTRY 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
Indonesia 16,730 18,880 20,450 22,090
Malaysia 15,294 17,567 17,259 18,200
Thailand 989 1,273 1,310 1,420
Nigeria 752 812 853 880
Colombia 830 779 758 773
Ecuador 409 417 431 466
World 37,591 42,666 44,262 47,154
COUNTRY 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
India 3,698 4,882 6,565 6,800
China 5,461 5,660 5,917 6,348
EU-27 4,478 4,806 5,592 6,000
Indonesia 3,920 4,362 4,846 5,230
Malaysia 2,132 2,449 2,474 2,540
Pakistan 1,638 1,734 1,792 1,800
Nigeria 1,042 1,219 1,265 1,301
Thailand 700 941 1,161 1,280
US 635 935 917 936
Colombia 467 457 580 748
Egypt 598 486 550 569
Japan 509 550 536 545
Russia 527 690 485 520
Turkey 401 443 388 440
World 37,256 41,325 44,700 47,260
Source:
Development Prospects Group
The World Bank, 30 December 2009
7 Inonesia's Palm Oil Outlook 2011-2020

8. WORLD TRADE
Export (000 MT) Import (000 MT)
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COUNTRY 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
Indonesia 12,465 14,100 16,110 16,840
Malaysia 13,768 15,041 15,990 16,180
PNG 406 385 451 422
Ecuador 180 178 173 189
Thailand 327 399 123 160
World 29,638 32,850 35,480 36,350
COUNTRY 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
China 5,543 5,559 6,297 6,200
India 3,664 5,019 6,875 6,550
EU-27 4,634 5,012 5,790 6,150
Pakistan 1,743 1,769 1,800 1,840
US 692 955 1,036 985
Bangladesh 871 855 832 850
Egypt 716 508 770 660
Iran 419 589 571 610
Japan 516 551 531 550
World 29,366 32,730 35,773 36,280
Source: Development Prospects Group The World Bank, 30 December 2009
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9. COMMODITY BOOM
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A B C
D
E
F
Export of goods (USD billion)
MANUFACTURE
COMMODITY
Commodity Export (USD billion)
RENEWABLE RESOURCES
NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCES
COMMODITY MAKET 1990-2010
A: Early 1990’s Export Boom
B: Crisis and Recovery of 1997/98
C: Sluggish Exports
D: Commodity Boom
 Total exports rose by 120%
 Manufacture exports increased 75%
 Commodity exports grew by 180%
 Renewable commodity growth reflect
rapid increase in both volumes and
prices.
E: Global Crisis 2008/09
F: Current Recovery began in late 2009
Source:
IMF Country Report No. 10/285
September 2010
A
B C
D
E
F
14
10
8
6
4
2
9
7
5
3
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10. INDONESIA’S MAJOR PRODUCERS
12/6/2010
STATE-OWNED PLANTATIONS
Company
PlantedArea
Ha
CPO Production
MT
PTPN III 115,470 517,336
PTPNV 114,644 439,445
PTPN IV 128,582 365,081
PTPN II 86,827 236,000
PTPN XIII 79,535 213,774
PTPNVII 55,742 163,762
PTPNVI 45,916 124,888
PTPN XIV 26,296 27,500
PRIVATE PLANTATIONS
Company
PlantedArea
Ha
CPO Production
MT
GoldenAgri 427,253 1,913,654
AstraAgro 264,036 1,082,953
AsianAgri 1) 160,000 1,000,000
Sime Darby 2) 204,237 782,219
IndofoodAgri 307,153 763,000
Sinar Mas 134,478 640,264
First Resources 108,917 368,631
Lonsum 107,870 341,553
Bakrie Sumatra 98,312 211,760
Note: All figures are of end 2009; 1) Pefindo’s estimate; 2) Indonesia’s operations.
Source:Company Profiles,Annual Reports
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11. CORPORATE PERFORMANCE
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Company
2007 2008 2009 2010 3Q
Revenue Profit1) Revenue Profit1) Revenue Profit1) Revenue Profit1)
Wilmar Int. 2) 16,466 580 29,145 1,530 23,885 1,882 21,289 1,005
GoldenAgri 2) 1,873 1,165 2,986 1,419 2,294 613 2,315 259
Sinar Mas 3) 8,080 989 16,094 1,046 14,201 748 10,689 537
IndoAgri 3) 6,506 994 11,840 1,067 9,040 2,053 6,505 804
AstraAgro 3) 5,961 1,973 8,161 2,631 7,424 1,660 5,721 1,228
Lonsum 3) 2,930 564 3,846 927 3,199 707 2,403 642
First Resources 3) 1,691 627 2,783 1,151 2,276 1,236 1,908 684
Bakrie Sumatra 3) 1,949 206 2,931 173 2,325 252 1,896 245
Notes: 1) Net Profit; 2) in USD million; 3) in IDR billion; Source: Companies’ Reports.
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12. INDONESIA’S 20 RICHEST
12/6/2010Inonesia's Palm Oil Outlook 2011-202012
Rank Name
NetWorth
(USD mil)
Rank Name
NetWorth
(USD mil)
1 R. Budi & Michael Hartono 11,000 11 Kiki Barki 1,700
2 Susilo Wonowidjojo 8,000 12 Eddy William Katuari 1,650
3 Eka Tjipta Widjaja 6,000 13 Edwin Soeryadjaya 1,600
4 Martua Sitorus 3,200 14 Boenyamin Setiawan 1,500
5 Anthony Salim 3,000 15 Garibaldi Thohir 1,450
6 Sri Prakash Lohia 2,650 16 Sukanto Tanoto 1,400
7 Low Tuck Kwong 2,600 17 Theodore Rachmat 1,350
8 Peter Sondakh 2,400 18 Chairul Tanjung 1,250
9 Putera Sampoerna 2,300 19 Murdaya Poo 1,150
10 Aburizal Bakrie 2,100 20 Ciliandra Fangiono 1,100
Most of the country’s wealthiest reap their fortune in the renewable resources
sector, notably palm oil. Source: Forbes Indonesia 3 December 2010.

13. PROMISING GLOBAL ECONOMY
12/6/2010
Country 2008 2009 2010
e
2011
f
2012
f
World 1.7 -2.1 3.3 3.3 3.5
OECD 0.3 -3.4 2.2 2.3 2.6
Brazil 5.1 -0.2 6.4 4.5 4.1
Russia 5.6 -7.9 4.5 4.8 4.7
India 5.1 7.7 8.2 8.7 8.2
China 9.6 8.7 9.5 8.5 8.2
Indonesia 6.0 4.5 5.9 6.2 6.3
Real GDP Growth (%)
Source:WB, Global Economic Outlook 2010
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14. PRICE PROJECTION 2011-2020
12/6/2010
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10
Monthly Prices ($/ton) Annual Prices ($/ton)
200
400
600
800
1000
200
500
800
1100
1400
Palm oil prices are expected to average $660 per ton in 2010 and to be slightly higher in
2011. In real terms, however, the 2010-12 average is expected to be two thirds higher in
the early 2000s.
Source: Development Prospects Group TheWorld Bank, 30 December 2009
Constant 2000
Current (Malaysian)
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15. EXPANSION AREAS
12/6/2010Inonesia's Palm Oil Outlook 2011-202015
Potential 24.5 million Ha

16. CONTROVERSY AND SOLUTION
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CONTROVERSY PROPONENTS SOLUTION
Saturated fat content Competitors from other
vegetable oil industry
Joint campaign by government
and industry associations
Deforestation and
biodiversity degradation
International interest groups High ConservationValue (HCV)
assessment and management
Marginalization of local
population
Local interest groups Social Impact Assessment and
CSR programs; and smallholder
(plasma) scheme
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17. SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL
12/6/2010
TERIMA KASIH
suhardiyoto@gmail.com
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