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A Report

             Tata Consultancy Services
                        (A Report)

                      Submitted To:

                  Dr. Brajesh Kumar




                      Submitted By:
                      Sukant Arora
                    JGU ID: 20100040
                     March 15, 2011




Sukant Arora                             Page 1
JGU ID 20100040
TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES
Tata Consultancy Services is a company of Tata Group whose Chairman is Mr. Ratan N Tata.
But there are two more people who are the reason behind company’s growth and
development who are company’s Managing Director & CEO Mr. N Chandrasekaran and
Executive Director & CFO of the company Mr. S Mahalingam.

At TCS people know that their clients need to do more with less, respond quickly to the
markets and get more strategic advantage from IT. TCS uniquely help its clients to tackle
different business challenges. Be it I.T services, business solutions or outsourcing and they
assure a level of certainty unmatched by other players in the field.

TCS has depth and breadth experience and expertise that one needs to achieve business
goals and succeed amidst the fiercest competition. TCS serves many industries which
include: Banking & Financial Services, Government, High Tech, Insurance, Manufacturing,
Media & Information Services, Retail & Consumer Products, Telecom, Travel, and
Transportation & Hospitality.

TCS stresses a lot on Innovation & Research Segmentation and that’s why they differentiate
from the industry. They are pioneer in R&D and has an innovative environment that offers
research based solutions in leading-edge technologies that will helps to meet one’s IT
expectation and support business objectives.

In 2010 TCS has bagged a multi-year deal from British Government to administer National
Employment Savings Trust (NEST) and many other major deals.

Financials: Company’s reported net profit is Rs.5618.51Cr which is more than 100% as in
comparison with year’s 2006 reported net profit. Their current ratio is 1.49 and quick ratio is
1.48.

Its Debt Equity ratio is .01 and the Earning per share is 28.62.

Current Situation in Stock Market:

Price in BSE is Rs.1084.00


Price in NSE is Rs.1086.60


Beta of the stock is .76




Sukant Arora                                                                            Page 2
JGU ID 20100040
YEAR   Jan          Feb          Mar          Apr          May          Jun          Jul           Aug          Sep          Oct          Nov          Dec
       ROR          ROR          ROR          ROR          ROR          ROR          ROR           ROR          ROR          ROR          ROR          ROR
2005     -0.21%        0.26%        0.17%       -1.13%        0.77%        0.09%       -0.32%         0.48%        0.27%       -0.27%        0.42%        0.53%
2006     -0.09%        0.10%        0.56%        0.22%       -0.45%       -0.05%       -1.94%         0.30%        0.13%        0.32%        0.45%        0.11%
2007      0.24%       -0.34%        0.20%        0.15%       -0.32%       -0.23%           0.15%     -0.36%       -0.01%       -0.08%       -0.10%        0.35%
2008     -0.85%        0.06%       -0.39%        0.70%        0.64%       -0.88%       -0.06%        -0.11%       -0.88%       -0.85%        0.31%       -0.69%
2009      0.38%       -0.28%        0.62%        0.90%        0.74%       -1.79%           1.38%      0.03%        0.84%        0.08%        0.48%        0.42%
2010     -0.08%        0.18%        0.12%       -0.28%       -0.12%        0.06%           0.53%      0.03%        0.46%        0.63%        0.12%        0.37%


YEAR   Jan          Feb          Mar          Apr          May          Jun          Jul           Aug          Sep          Oct          Nov          Dec
       Volatility   Volatility   Volatility   Volatility   Volatility   Volatility   Volatility    Volatility   Volatility   Volatility   Volatility   Volatility
2005      1.46%        1.23%        1.38%        3.05%        1.70%        1.39%           2.06%      1.55%        1.71%        1.73%        1.05%        1.57%
2006      1.27%        1.15%        1.77%        2.70%        2.44%        3.54%       11.56%         0.88%        1.70%        1.59%        1.25%        1.81%
2007      1.70%        1.76%        2.87%        1.92%        1.12%        0.88%           1.99%      1.93%        1.70%        2.06%        1.97%        2.31%
2008      3.39%        2.86%        3.30%        3.53%        2.83%        2.40%           3.67%      1.88%        3.77%        6.68%        4.24%        3.32%
2009      2.80%        2.28%        3.88%        2.75%        5.23%       11.00%           3.95%      2.30%        1.72%        2.08%        1.97%        1.00%
2010      2.27%        1.16%        1.26%        1.45%        2.07%        1.51%           1.90%      1.45%        1.65%        2.24%        1.63%        1.14%




                                 Tata Consultancy Services




       Sukant Arora                                                                                                                          Page 3
       JGU ID 20100040
3.50%
             3.00%
             2.50%
             2.00%
             1.50%
                                                                                                        Rate Of Return 2005
             1.00%
                                                                                                        Volatility 2005
             0.50%
             0.00%                  Mar




                                                                                Oct
                                                                                      Nov
                                                                  Aug
                                          Apr


                                                      Jun
                       Jan




                                                            Jul
                                                May




                                                                                            Dec
                             Feb




                                                                         Sep
            -0.50%
            -1.00%
            -1.50%




In 2005 the stock of TCS did fine, Net return in the year was positive but still there were many
fluctuations in the share price and return of the share as we can see there is certain decline in the
return of the stock in April but it recovered very fast in the month of May and also was very
volatile.TCS opened its office in Portugal to increase its business in more than 33 countries. TCS gave
dividend to its investors four times a year including 3 interim dividends and a final dividend. 350% on
3rd February, 500% on July 6th, 300% on August 18th, and again 300% on October 18th. Effect of this
was not much on the stock prices, but when the company provided the last dividend in the year the
stock price declined gradually.



          14.00%
          12.00%
          10.00%
           8.00%
           6.00%                                                                                          Rate Of Return 2006
           4.00%                                                                                          Volatility 2006

           2.00%
           0.00%
                                                                                        Nov
                                                                   Aug
                                          Apr
                                                May


                                                            Jul




                                                                                                  Dec
                           Feb




                                                                          Sep
                                   Mar




                                                                                  Oct
                                                      Jun
                     Jan




          -2.00%
          -4.00%


In the year 2006 besides the normal return and volatility, there was a stock split on July 28th in the
Ratio of 1:1 but the return on the given date was very negative and it was reduced by -51.13% And
the net return of the stock after the year was also negative. TCS gave dividend to its investors only
once in the year this time in the year of 2006 on January 18th and the dividend was interim and was
300% and this time it caused the stock price to increase by 31 rupees but again this return was
around just 1.88% and the effect was not that significant.


Sukant Arora                                                                                                                    Page 4
JGU ID 20100040
3.50%


     3.00%


     2.50%


     2.00%


     1.50%
                                                                     Rate Of Return 2007
                                                                     Volatility 2007
     1.00%


     0.50%


     0.00%
              Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
     -0.50%


     -1.00%




Year 2007 was the year of High Risk and High Return and the stock was very volatile
throughout the year. In the month of February the stock was very volatile due to the very
High Volume of Trade. As same as the last year the net return of the stock was negative. TCS
gave dividend to its investors four times a year including 3 interim dividends and a final
dividend. 300% on 22nd January, 400%final dividend on June 15th, 300% on July 27th, and
again 300% on October 22nd. The dividend per share was Rs. 3, 4, 3 and 3 respectively.
Effect of this was not much on the stock prices, but when the company provided the last
dividend in the year the stock price declined gradually




Sukant Arora                                                                           Page 5
JGU ID 20100040
8.00%

   7.00%

   6.00%

   5.00%

   4.00%

                                                                         Rate Of Return 2008
   3.00%
                                                                         Volatility 2008

   2.00%

   1.00%

   0.00%
            Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
   -1.00%

   -2.00%




As we know the Year 2008 was the year of Global Financial Meltdown, this stock along with
the stock market was a victim of the same. As in the starting of the year itself there was not
much volatility but the stock prices fall down, but as the crisis was getting to the positive
phase this stock again attracted more investors and again the trading volumes become high
and the stock became more volatile in the later part of the year. . TCS gave dividend to its
investors four times a year including 3 interim dividends and a final dividend. 300% on 23rd
January, 500%final dividend on June 18th, 300% on July 31th, and again 300% on October
29th. The dividend per share was Rs. 3, 5, 3 and 3 respectively. Effect of this was not much
on the stock prices, but when the company provided the last dividend in the year the stock
price declined gradually.




Sukant Arora                                                                               Page 6
JGU ID 20100040
12.00%

  10.00%

   8.00%

   6.00%
                                                                                Rate Of Return 2009
   4.00%
                                                                                Volatility 2009
   2.00%

   0.00%
           Jan    Feb Mar Apr May Jun      Jul   Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
  -2.00%

  -4.00%




Though this year 2009 was the year of high volatility and the stock was volatile throughout
the year but a Stock Split took place in the ratio of 1:1 on 16-Jun-09 which caused the
negative returns by -50.73though this year had a positive Net Annual Return. Besides the
stock split in the year. TCS gave dividend to its investors four times a year including 3 interim
dividends and a final dividend. 300% on 28th January, 500%final dividend on June 16th, 200%
on July 27th, and again 200% on October 28th. The dividend per share was Rs. 3, 4, 2 and 2
respectively. This time TCS reduced their dividend percentage and also the dividend per
share. Effect of this was not much on the stock prices, but when the company provided the
last dividend in the year the stock price declined gradually.




Sukant Arora                                                                               Page 7
JGU ID 20100040
2.50%




   2.00%




   1.50%



                                                                            Rate Of Return 2010
   1.00%
                                                                            Volatility 2010



   0.50%




   0.00%
           Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun      Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec


  -0.50%




The Year 2010 was a normal year in terms of the return of the stock but again throughout
the year the stock was very volatile. But the returns were not as good as they should be
when the stock is a volatile due to there was less trading volume as the markets were not
responding well to the IT industry. But still its net annual return was Positive. . TCS gave
dividend to its investors five times a year including 3 interim dividends a final dividend and a
special dividend. 200% on 27th January, A Special Dividend of 1000% on 15th June, 400%final
dividend on June 15th, 200% on July 29th, and again 200% on November 1st. The dividend per
share was Rs. 2, 10, 4, 2 and 2 respectively. Besides the special dividend given by the
company the effect of this was not much on the stock prices, but when the company
provided the last dividend in the year the stock price declined gradually.




Sukant Arora                                                                                  Page 8
JGU ID 20100040
TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES vs. TATA MOTORS
                                            For the Year 2005
 AVERAGE                                  0.000919177            0.000909983
 STANDARD
 DEVIATION                                0.017593564            0.019945168

 CORRELATION                              0.285470279


 WEIGHTS
 TCS                  WEIGHTS TATAMOTORS PRETURN        PRISK
              1                         0   0.000919177 0.000309533
            0.9                       0.1   0.000918257 0.000272731
            0.8                       0.2   0.000917338 0.000246069
            0.7                       0.3   0.000916419 0.000229547
            0.6                       0.4   0.000915499 0.000223165
            0.5                       0.5    0.00091458 0.000226923
            0.4                       0.6    0.00091366   0.00024082
            0.3                       0.7   0.000912741 0.000264858
            0.2                       0.8   0.000911822 0.000299035
            0.1                       0.9   0.000910902 0.000343352
              0                         1   0.000909983   0.00039781




                                              Portfolio Risk
                            0.00092
                  P        0.000918
                  o        0.000916
                       R   0.000914
                  r
                       e   0.000912
                  t         0.00091                                            Portfolio Risk
                       t
                  f        0.000908
                       u
                  o                   0    0.00010.00020.00030.00040.0005
                       r
                  l
                       n                        Portfolio Risk
                  i
                  o

This graph tells us that when there the portfolio is created it is beneficial for the investor as along
with the risk it has greater returns.

Efficient Portfolio                                              WEIGHTS
                                                     WEIGHT TCS TATAMOTORS     PRETURN PRISK
                                                     0.587058055   0.412941945    0.09%  0.02%



Sukant Arora                                                                                       Page 9
JGU ID 20100040
For the Year 2006

AVERAGE                  -0.00129646       0.001374684
STANDARD
DEVIATION                0.049739272       0.025359826
CORRELATION              0.261354787
 WEIGHTS
 TCS         WEIGHTS TATAMOTORS PRETURN            PRISK
           1                     0    -0.00129646 0.002473995
         0.9                   0.1   -0.001029346 0.002069707
         0.8                   0.2   -0.000762231 0.001714575
         0.7                   0.3   -0.000495117 0.001408599
         0.6                   0.4   -0.000228002 0.001151778
         0.5                   0.5    3.91122E-05 0.000944113
         0.4                   0.6    0.000306227 0.000785603
         0.3                   0.7    0.000573341 0.000676249
         0.2                   0.8    0.000840455 0.000616051
         0.1                   0.9     0.00110757 0.000605008
           0                     1    0.001374684 0.000643121




                                         Portfolio Risk
                          0.20%
                  P
                          0.15%
                  o
                      R   0.10%
                  r
                      e
                  t       0.05%
                      t
                  f
                      u   0.00%                                          Portfolio Risk
                  o
                      r   -0.05%0.00%    0.10%    0.20%    0.30%
                  l
                      n
                  i       -0.10%
                  o       -0.15%
                                          Portfolio Risk




When the more risk is there in the portfolio it generates negative returns.

Efficient Portfolio
                                                   WEIGHT     WEIGHT
                                                   TCS        TATAMOTORS PRETURN PRISK
                                                   0.12753507  0.872464926  0.10%  0.06%


Sukant Arora                                                                              Page 10
JGU ID 20100040
For the Year 2007
 AVERAGE                          -0.000594323             -0.000909001
 STANDARD
 DEVIATION                        0.018813046              0.021333522
 CORRELATION                      0.404905412


WEIGHTS
TCS             WEIGHTS TATAMOTORS PRETURN         PRISK
            1                     0   -0.000594323 0.000353931
          0.9                   0.1   -0.000625791 0.000320487
          0.8                   0.2   -0.000657259 0.000296723
          0.7                   0.3   -0.000688727   0.00028264
          0.6                   0.4   -0.000720194 0.000278238
          0.5                   0.5   -0.000751662 0.000283517
          0.4                   0.6    -0.00078313 0.000298476
          0.3                   0.7   -0.000814598 0.000323116
          0.2                   0.8   -0.000846066 0.000357436
          0.1                   0.9   -0.000877534 0.000401437
            0                     1   -0.000909001 0.000455119


                                         Portfolio Risk
                             0.00%
                     P             0.00% 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%
                     o       -0.02%
                         R
                     r
                         e
                     t       -0.04%
                         t
                     f
                         u                                                Portfolio Risk
                     o       -0.06%
                         r
                     l
                         n   -0.08%
                     i
                     o
                             -0.10%
                                          Portfolio Risk




It shows that it is not beneficial to invest in a portfolio as the return is always negative.

                                                                               Efficient
               WEIGHT                                                          Portfolio
   WEIGHT TCS TATAMOTORS PRETURN PRISK
   0.604526303  0.395473697 -0.07% 0.03%




Sukant Arora                                                                                    Page 11
JGU ID 20100040
For the Year 2008
AVERAGE                          -0.003230481            -0.006376204
STANDARD
DEVIATION                        0.036248176             0.040313501
CORRELATION                      0.452331562



WEIGHTS
TCS             WEIGHTS TATAMOTORS PRETURN         PRISK
            1                     0   -0.003230481   0.00131393
          0.9                   0.1   -0.003545053 0.001199513
          0.8                   0.2   -0.003859626 0.001117439
          0.7                   0.3   -0.004174198 0.001067707
          0.6                   0.4    -0.00448877 0.001050318
          0.5                   0.5   -0.004803342 0.001065271
          0.4                   0.6   -0.005117915 0.001112567
          0.3                   0.7   -0.005432487 0.001192206
          0.2                   0.8   -0.005747059 0.001304188
          0.1                   0.9   -0.006061631 0.001448512
            0                     1   -0.006376204 0.001625178



                                       Portfolio Risk
                        0.00%
                P             0.00% 0.05% 0.10% 0.15% 0.20%
                o       -0.20%
                    r
                r
                    e   -0.40%
                t
                    t                                                    Portfolio Risk
                f
                    u   -0.60%
                o
                    r
                l
                    n   -0.80%
                i                       Portfolio Risk
                o




It depicts the same as the return is negative with the risk of the portfolio and is not considered as
                                      a wise decision to invest.

Efficient Portfolio                                         WEIGHT
                                                WEIGHT TCS TATAMOTORS PRETURN PRISK
                                                0.596234567  0.403765433 -0.45% 0.11%




Sukant Arora                                                                                 Page 12
JGU ID 20100040
For the Year 2009
 AVERAGE                           0.001702968             0.00634404
 STANDARD
 DEVIATION                         0.053014525            0.041796854
 CORRELATION                       0.178422879


WEIGHTS
TCS             WEIGHTS TATAMOTORS PRETURN        PRISK
            1                     0   0.001702968   0.00281054
          0.9                   0.1   0.002167075 0.002365171
          0.8                   0.2   0.002631183 0.001995139
          0.7                   0.3    0.00309529 0.001700442
          0.6                   0.4   0.003559397 0.001481082
          0.5                   0.5   0.004023504 0.001337058
          0.4                   0.6   0.004487611 0.001268369
          0.3                   0.7   0.004951719 0.001275017
          0.2                   0.8   0.005415826 0.001357001
          0.1                   0.9   0.005879933 0.001514321
            0                     1    0.00634404 0.001746977




                                        Portfolio Risk
                           0.80%
                   P
                           0.60%
                   o
                       R
                   r       0.40%
                       e
                   t       0.20%
                       t                                                Portfolio Risk
                   f
                       u   0.00%
                   o
                       r       0.00%    0.10%    0.20%     0.30%
                   l
                       n
                   i                     Portfolio Risk
                   o




In this along with the greater portfolio risk there is greater return but if somebody wants to invest
then he has to check his proportion of the stocks in the portfolio as if the weights of one stock are
increased it can cause loss also.

Efficient Portfolio                                          WEIGHT
                                                 WEIGHT TCS TATAMOTORS PRETURN PRISK
                                                 0.358824215  0.641175785 0.47%  0.13%




Sukant Arora                                                                                 Page 13
JGU ID 20100040
For the Year 2010
 AVERAGE                            0.001748061             0.00183021
 STANDARD
 DEVIATION                          0.016524223            0.023401932
 CORRELATION                        0.357969168



WEIGHTS
TCS             WEIGHTS TATAMOTORS PRETURN        PRISK
            1                     0   0.001748061   0.00027305
          0.9                   0.1   0.001756276 0.000251564
          0.8                   0.2   0.001764491 0.000240954
          0.7                   0.3   0.001772706 0.000241222
          0.6                   0.4   0.001780921 0.000252367
          0.5                   0.5   0.001789136 0.000274388
          0.4                   0.6    0.00179735 0.000307287
          0.3                   0.7   0.001805565 0.000351062
          0.2                   0.8    0.00181378 0.000405715
          0.1                   0.9   0.001821995 0.000471244
            0                     1    0.00183021   0.00054765


                                         Portfolio Risk
                            0.18%
                    P
                            0.18%
                    o
                        R   0.18%
                    r
                        e
                    t       0.18%
                        t
                    f                                                     Portfolio Risk
                        u   0.18%
                    o
                        r
                    l       0.17%
                        n
                    i           0.00%    0.02%     0.04%    0.06%
                    o
                                          Portfolio Risk


Its shows that this is a good portfolio to invest in as the return with the risk is high.

Efficient
                                          WEIGHT
Portfolio                    WEIGHT TCS   TATAMOTORS PRETURN       PRISK
                               0.75246071   0.24753929       0.18%                           0.02%




Sukant Arora                                                                                Page 14
JGU ID 20100040
PORTFOLIO RETURN WHEN THREE
   COMPANIES ARE CONSIDERED

WEIGHTS TCS           WEIGHTS TATAMOTORS WEIGHTS TATA STEEL    PRETURN        PRISK
                1                       0                    0    0.000919177 0.000309533
              0.7                     0.2                  0.1    0.000817808 0.000220715
              0.6                     0.1                  0.3    0.000619667 0.000206507
              0.5                     0.3                  0.2    0.000717359 0.000197752
              0.4                     0.2                  0.4    0.000519218 0.000195597
              0.3                     0.5                  0.2     0.00071552 0.000215974
              0.3                     0.2                  0.5    0.000419688 0.000204206
              0.3                     0.4                  0.3    0.000616909 0.000203844
                0                     0.2                  0.8    0.000121098 0.000280978
              0.1                     0.6                  0.3     0.00061507 0.000252768
                0                       1                    0    0.000909983   0.00039781




                                        Portfolio Risk
        0.001
       0.0009
       0.0008
       0.0007
       0.0006
       0.0005
                                                                         Portfolio Risk
       0.0004
       0.0003
       0.0002
       0.0001
              0
                  0       0.0001   0.0002   0.0003   0.0004   0.0005




   Sukant Arora                                                                    Page 15
   JGU ID 20100040
Beta Values
                                       Year 2005
                  SUMMARY OUTPUT

                                      Regression Statistics
                  Multiple R                                       0.597960418
                  R Square                                         0.357556661
                  Adjusted R Square                                0.354966164
                  Standard Error                                   0.014130095
                  Observations                                             250

                  ANOVA
                                                              df
                  Regression                                                1
                  Residual                                                248
                  Total                                                   249

                                                         Coefficients
                  Intercept                                     -0.000191983
                  X Variable 1                                   0.946364856




                                       Year 2006
                    SUMMARY OUTPUT

                                      Regression Statistics
                    Multiple R                                0.342942131
                    R Square                                  0.117609305
                    Adjusted R Square                         0.114036873
                    Standard Error                            0.046817395
                    Observations                                      249

                    ANOVA
                                                              df
                    Regression                                            1
                    Residual                                            247
                    Total                                               248

                                                         Coefficients
                    Intercept                                -0.002686424
                    X Variable 1                              1.031653124

Sukant Arora                                                                     Page 16
JGU ID 20100040
Year 2007
                   SUMMARY OUTPUT

                                   Regression Statistics
                   Multiple R                                  0.601319603
                   R Square                                    0.361585265
                   Adjusted R Square                           0.358990083
                   Standard Error                              0.015062307
                   Observations                                        248

                   ANOVA
                                                               df
                   Regression                                              1
                   Residual                                              246
                   Total                                                 247

                                                          Coefficients
                   Intercept                                 -0.001807317
                   X Variable 1                               0.705404576




                                       Year 2008
                  SUMMARY OUTPUT

                                      Regression Statistics
                  Multiple R                                     0.668701815
                  R Square                                       0.447162118
                  Adjusted R Square                              0.444887065
                  Standard Error                                  0.02700703
                  Observations                                           245

                  ANOVA
                                                                    df
                  Regression                                                1
                  Residual                                                243
                  Total                                                   244

                                                              Coefficients
                  Intercept                                     -0.000661628
                  X Variable 1                                     0.86140481



Sukant Arora                                                                    Page 17
JGU ID 20100040
Year 2009
                  SUMMARY OUTPUT

                                      Regression Statistics
                  Multiple R                                         0.330500204
                  R Square                                           0.109230385
                  Adjusted R Square                                  0.105518845
                  Standard Error                                     0.050139555
                  Observations                                               242

                  ANOVA
                                                                  df
                  Regression                                                  1
                  Residual                                                  240
                  Total                                                     241

                                                              Coefficients
                  Intercept                                       -0.000119217
                  X Variable 1                                     0.817881085




                                       Year 2010
                   SUMMARY OUTPUT

                                      Regression Statistics
                   Multiple R                                    0.508462962
                   R Square                                      0.258534584
                   Adjusted R Square                             0.255556811
                   Standard Error                                0.014257285
                   Observations                                          251

                   ANOVA
                                                                df
                   Regression                                                1
                   Residual                                                249
                   Total                                                   250

                                                          Coefficients
                   Intercept                                    0.001228793
                   X Variable 1                                 0.819226819



Sukant Arora                                                                       Page 18
JGU ID 20100040
Year              Beta              Intercept

                                2005          0.946365          -0.00019


                                2006          1.031653          -0.00269


                                2007          0.705405          -0.00181


                                2008          0.861405          -0.00066


                                2009          0.817881          -0.00012


                                2010          0.819227          0.001266




                                Industry Beta= .77
           1.2                                              0.0015
                                                            0.001
             1
                                                            0.0005
           0.8                                              0
                                                            -0.0005
           0.6                                                             Beta
                                                            -0.001
                                                                           Intercept
           0.4                                              -0.0015
                                                            -0.002
           0.2
                                                            -0.0025
             0                                              -0.003
                  2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010


From the data, we observe that the company has almost has same value of Beta from linear
regression technique and Normal computation using Covariance between return on company
stock and the market return and, the variance in the market return.

This is because of the fact that the relationship between the changes in returns of the
company with respect to changes in the market returns is a constant. Here the Beta value of
the stock is different from year to year because here the market is driving the stock not vice
versa. The beta of the stock was in sync of the industry and was going in the same direction
of the industry and the other stocks of the company.


Sukant Arora                                                                           Page 19
JGU ID 20100040

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Portfolio Risk Calculation

  • 1. A Report Tata Consultancy Services (A Report) Submitted To: Dr. Brajesh Kumar Submitted By: Sukant Arora JGU ID: 20100040 March 15, 2011 Sukant Arora Page 1 JGU ID 20100040
  • 2. TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES Tata Consultancy Services is a company of Tata Group whose Chairman is Mr. Ratan N Tata. But there are two more people who are the reason behind company’s growth and development who are company’s Managing Director & CEO Mr. N Chandrasekaran and Executive Director & CFO of the company Mr. S Mahalingam. At TCS people know that their clients need to do more with less, respond quickly to the markets and get more strategic advantage from IT. TCS uniquely help its clients to tackle different business challenges. Be it I.T services, business solutions or outsourcing and they assure a level of certainty unmatched by other players in the field. TCS has depth and breadth experience and expertise that one needs to achieve business goals and succeed amidst the fiercest competition. TCS serves many industries which include: Banking & Financial Services, Government, High Tech, Insurance, Manufacturing, Media & Information Services, Retail & Consumer Products, Telecom, Travel, and Transportation & Hospitality. TCS stresses a lot on Innovation & Research Segmentation and that’s why they differentiate from the industry. They are pioneer in R&D and has an innovative environment that offers research based solutions in leading-edge technologies that will helps to meet one’s IT expectation and support business objectives. In 2010 TCS has bagged a multi-year deal from British Government to administer National Employment Savings Trust (NEST) and many other major deals. Financials: Company’s reported net profit is Rs.5618.51Cr which is more than 100% as in comparison with year’s 2006 reported net profit. Their current ratio is 1.49 and quick ratio is 1.48. Its Debt Equity ratio is .01 and the Earning per share is 28.62. Current Situation in Stock Market: Price in BSE is Rs.1084.00 Price in NSE is Rs.1086.60 Beta of the stock is .76 Sukant Arora Page 2 JGU ID 20100040
  • 3. YEAR Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ROR ROR ROR ROR ROR ROR ROR ROR ROR ROR ROR ROR 2005 -0.21% 0.26% 0.17% -1.13% 0.77% 0.09% -0.32% 0.48% 0.27% -0.27% 0.42% 0.53% 2006 -0.09% 0.10% 0.56% 0.22% -0.45% -0.05% -1.94% 0.30% 0.13% 0.32% 0.45% 0.11% 2007 0.24% -0.34% 0.20% 0.15% -0.32% -0.23% 0.15% -0.36% -0.01% -0.08% -0.10% 0.35% 2008 -0.85% 0.06% -0.39% 0.70% 0.64% -0.88% -0.06% -0.11% -0.88% -0.85% 0.31% -0.69% 2009 0.38% -0.28% 0.62% 0.90% 0.74% -1.79% 1.38% 0.03% 0.84% 0.08% 0.48% 0.42% 2010 -0.08% 0.18% 0.12% -0.28% -0.12% 0.06% 0.53% 0.03% 0.46% 0.63% 0.12% 0.37% YEAR Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Volatility Volatility Volatility Volatility Volatility Volatility Volatility Volatility Volatility Volatility Volatility Volatility 2005 1.46% 1.23% 1.38% 3.05% 1.70% 1.39% 2.06% 1.55% 1.71% 1.73% 1.05% 1.57% 2006 1.27% 1.15% 1.77% 2.70% 2.44% 3.54% 11.56% 0.88% 1.70% 1.59% 1.25% 1.81% 2007 1.70% 1.76% 2.87% 1.92% 1.12% 0.88% 1.99% 1.93% 1.70% 2.06% 1.97% 2.31% 2008 3.39% 2.86% 3.30% 3.53% 2.83% 2.40% 3.67% 1.88% 3.77% 6.68% 4.24% 3.32% 2009 2.80% 2.28% 3.88% 2.75% 5.23% 11.00% 3.95% 2.30% 1.72% 2.08% 1.97% 1.00% 2010 2.27% 1.16% 1.26% 1.45% 2.07% 1.51% 1.90% 1.45% 1.65% 2.24% 1.63% 1.14% Tata Consultancy Services Sukant Arora Page 3 JGU ID 20100040
  • 4. 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% Rate Of Return 2005 1.00% Volatility 2005 0.50% 0.00% Mar Oct Nov Aug Apr Jun Jan Jul May Dec Feb Sep -0.50% -1.00% -1.50% In 2005 the stock of TCS did fine, Net return in the year was positive but still there were many fluctuations in the share price and return of the share as we can see there is certain decline in the return of the stock in April but it recovered very fast in the month of May and also was very volatile.TCS opened its office in Portugal to increase its business in more than 33 countries. TCS gave dividend to its investors four times a year including 3 interim dividends and a final dividend. 350% on 3rd February, 500% on July 6th, 300% on August 18th, and again 300% on October 18th. Effect of this was not much on the stock prices, but when the company provided the last dividend in the year the stock price declined gradually. 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% Rate Of Return 2006 4.00% Volatility 2006 2.00% 0.00% Nov Aug Apr May Jul Dec Feb Sep Mar Oct Jun Jan -2.00% -4.00% In the year 2006 besides the normal return and volatility, there was a stock split on July 28th in the Ratio of 1:1 but the return on the given date was very negative and it was reduced by -51.13% And the net return of the stock after the year was also negative. TCS gave dividend to its investors only once in the year this time in the year of 2006 on January 18th and the dividend was interim and was 300% and this time it caused the stock price to increase by 31 rupees but again this return was around just 1.88% and the effect was not that significant. Sukant Arora Page 4 JGU ID 20100040
  • 5. 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% Rate Of Return 2007 Volatility 2007 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -0.50% -1.00% Year 2007 was the year of High Risk and High Return and the stock was very volatile throughout the year. In the month of February the stock was very volatile due to the very High Volume of Trade. As same as the last year the net return of the stock was negative. TCS gave dividend to its investors four times a year including 3 interim dividends and a final dividend. 300% on 22nd January, 400%final dividend on June 15th, 300% on July 27th, and again 300% on October 22nd. The dividend per share was Rs. 3, 4, 3 and 3 respectively. Effect of this was not much on the stock prices, but when the company provided the last dividend in the year the stock price declined gradually Sukant Arora Page 5 JGU ID 20100040
  • 6. 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% Rate Of Return 2008 3.00% Volatility 2008 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -1.00% -2.00% As we know the Year 2008 was the year of Global Financial Meltdown, this stock along with the stock market was a victim of the same. As in the starting of the year itself there was not much volatility but the stock prices fall down, but as the crisis was getting to the positive phase this stock again attracted more investors and again the trading volumes become high and the stock became more volatile in the later part of the year. . TCS gave dividend to its investors four times a year including 3 interim dividends and a final dividend. 300% on 23rd January, 500%final dividend on June 18th, 300% on July 31th, and again 300% on October 29th. The dividend per share was Rs. 3, 5, 3 and 3 respectively. Effect of this was not much on the stock prices, but when the company provided the last dividend in the year the stock price declined gradually. Sukant Arora Page 6 JGU ID 20100040
  • 7. 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% Rate Of Return 2009 4.00% Volatility 2009 2.00% 0.00% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -2.00% -4.00% Though this year 2009 was the year of high volatility and the stock was volatile throughout the year but a Stock Split took place in the ratio of 1:1 on 16-Jun-09 which caused the negative returns by -50.73though this year had a positive Net Annual Return. Besides the stock split in the year. TCS gave dividend to its investors four times a year including 3 interim dividends and a final dividend. 300% on 28th January, 500%final dividend on June 16th, 200% on July 27th, and again 200% on October 28th. The dividend per share was Rs. 3, 4, 2 and 2 respectively. This time TCS reduced their dividend percentage and also the dividend per share. Effect of this was not much on the stock prices, but when the company provided the last dividend in the year the stock price declined gradually. Sukant Arora Page 7 JGU ID 20100040
  • 8. 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% Rate Of Return 2010 1.00% Volatility 2010 0.50% 0.00% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -0.50% The Year 2010 was a normal year in terms of the return of the stock but again throughout the year the stock was very volatile. But the returns were not as good as they should be when the stock is a volatile due to there was less trading volume as the markets were not responding well to the IT industry. But still its net annual return was Positive. . TCS gave dividend to its investors five times a year including 3 interim dividends a final dividend and a special dividend. 200% on 27th January, A Special Dividend of 1000% on 15th June, 400%final dividend on June 15th, 200% on July 29th, and again 200% on November 1st. The dividend per share was Rs. 2, 10, 4, 2 and 2 respectively. Besides the special dividend given by the company the effect of this was not much on the stock prices, but when the company provided the last dividend in the year the stock price declined gradually. Sukant Arora Page 8 JGU ID 20100040
  • 9. TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES vs. TATA MOTORS For the Year 2005 AVERAGE 0.000919177 0.000909983 STANDARD DEVIATION 0.017593564 0.019945168 CORRELATION 0.285470279 WEIGHTS TCS WEIGHTS TATAMOTORS PRETURN PRISK 1 0 0.000919177 0.000309533 0.9 0.1 0.000918257 0.000272731 0.8 0.2 0.000917338 0.000246069 0.7 0.3 0.000916419 0.000229547 0.6 0.4 0.000915499 0.000223165 0.5 0.5 0.00091458 0.000226923 0.4 0.6 0.00091366 0.00024082 0.3 0.7 0.000912741 0.000264858 0.2 0.8 0.000911822 0.000299035 0.1 0.9 0.000910902 0.000343352 0 1 0.000909983 0.00039781 Portfolio Risk 0.00092 P 0.000918 o 0.000916 R 0.000914 r e 0.000912 t 0.00091 Portfolio Risk t f 0.000908 u o 0 0.00010.00020.00030.00040.0005 r l n Portfolio Risk i o This graph tells us that when there the portfolio is created it is beneficial for the investor as along with the risk it has greater returns. Efficient Portfolio WEIGHTS WEIGHT TCS TATAMOTORS PRETURN PRISK 0.587058055 0.412941945 0.09% 0.02% Sukant Arora Page 9 JGU ID 20100040
  • 10. For the Year 2006 AVERAGE -0.00129646 0.001374684 STANDARD DEVIATION 0.049739272 0.025359826 CORRELATION 0.261354787 WEIGHTS TCS WEIGHTS TATAMOTORS PRETURN PRISK 1 0 -0.00129646 0.002473995 0.9 0.1 -0.001029346 0.002069707 0.8 0.2 -0.000762231 0.001714575 0.7 0.3 -0.000495117 0.001408599 0.6 0.4 -0.000228002 0.001151778 0.5 0.5 3.91122E-05 0.000944113 0.4 0.6 0.000306227 0.000785603 0.3 0.7 0.000573341 0.000676249 0.2 0.8 0.000840455 0.000616051 0.1 0.9 0.00110757 0.000605008 0 1 0.001374684 0.000643121 Portfolio Risk 0.20% P 0.15% o R 0.10% r e t 0.05% t f u 0.00% Portfolio Risk o r -0.05%0.00% 0.10% 0.20% 0.30% l n i -0.10% o -0.15% Portfolio Risk When the more risk is there in the portfolio it generates negative returns. Efficient Portfolio WEIGHT WEIGHT TCS TATAMOTORS PRETURN PRISK 0.12753507 0.872464926 0.10% 0.06% Sukant Arora Page 10 JGU ID 20100040
  • 11. For the Year 2007 AVERAGE -0.000594323 -0.000909001 STANDARD DEVIATION 0.018813046 0.021333522 CORRELATION 0.404905412 WEIGHTS TCS WEIGHTS TATAMOTORS PRETURN PRISK 1 0 -0.000594323 0.000353931 0.9 0.1 -0.000625791 0.000320487 0.8 0.2 -0.000657259 0.000296723 0.7 0.3 -0.000688727 0.00028264 0.6 0.4 -0.000720194 0.000278238 0.5 0.5 -0.000751662 0.000283517 0.4 0.6 -0.00078313 0.000298476 0.3 0.7 -0.000814598 0.000323116 0.2 0.8 -0.000846066 0.000357436 0.1 0.9 -0.000877534 0.000401437 0 1 -0.000909001 0.000455119 Portfolio Risk 0.00% P 0.00% 0.02% 0.04% 0.06% o -0.02% R r e t -0.04% t f u Portfolio Risk o -0.06% r l n -0.08% i o -0.10% Portfolio Risk It shows that it is not beneficial to invest in a portfolio as the return is always negative. Efficient WEIGHT Portfolio WEIGHT TCS TATAMOTORS PRETURN PRISK 0.604526303 0.395473697 -0.07% 0.03% Sukant Arora Page 11 JGU ID 20100040
  • 12. For the Year 2008 AVERAGE -0.003230481 -0.006376204 STANDARD DEVIATION 0.036248176 0.040313501 CORRELATION 0.452331562 WEIGHTS TCS WEIGHTS TATAMOTORS PRETURN PRISK 1 0 -0.003230481 0.00131393 0.9 0.1 -0.003545053 0.001199513 0.8 0.2 -0.003859626 0.001117439 0.7 0.3 -0.004174198 0.001067707 0.6 0.4 -0.00448877 0.001050318 0.5 0.5 -0.004803342 0.001065271 0.4 0.6 -0.005117915 0.001112567 0.3 0.7 -0.005432487 0.001192206 0.2 0.8 -0.005747059 0.001304188 0.1 0.9 -0.006061631 0.001448512 0 1 -0.006376204 0.001625178 Portfolio Risk 0.00% P 0.00% 0.05% 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% o -0.20% r r e -0.40% t t Portfolio Risk f u -0.60% o r l n -0.80% i Portfolio Risk o It depicts the same as the return is negative with the risk of the portfolio and is not considered as a wise decision to invest. Efficient Portfolio WEIGHT WEIGHT TCS TATAMOTORS PRETURN PRISK 0.596234567 0.403765433 -0.45% 0.11% Sukant Arora Page 12 JGU ID 20100040
  • 13. For the Year 2009 AVERAGE 0.001702968 0.00634404 STANDARD DEVIATION 0.053014525 0.041796854 CORRELATION 0.178422879 WEIGHTS TCS WEIGHTS TATAMOTORS PRETURN PRISK 1 0 0.001702968 0.00281054 0.9 0.1 0.002167075 0.002365171 0.8 0.2 0.002631183 0.001995139 0.7 0.3 0.00309529 0.001700442 0.6 0.4 0.003559397 0.001481082 0.5 0.5 0.004023504 0.001337058 0.4 0.6 0.004487611 0.001268369 0.3 0.7 0.004951719 0.001275017 0.2 0.8 0.005415826 0.001357001 0.1 0.9 0.005879933 0.001514321 0 1 0.00634404 0.001746977 Portfolio Risk 0.80% P 0.60% o R r 0.40% e t 0.20% t Portfolio Risk f u 0.00% o r 0.00% 0.10% 0.20% 0.30% l n i Portfolio Risk o In this along with the greater portfolio risk there is greater return but if somebody wants to invest then he has to check his proportion of the stocks in the portfolio as if the weights of one stock are increased it can cause loss also. Efficient Portfolio WEIGHT WEIGHT TCS TATAMOTORS PRETURN PRISK 0.358824215 0.641175785 0.47% 0.13% Sukant Arora Page 13 JGU ID 20100040
  • 14. For the Year 2010 AVERAGE 0.001748061 0.00183021 STANDARD DEVIATION 0.016524223 0.023401932 CORRELATION 0.357969168 WEIGHTS TCS WEIGHTS TATAMOTORS PRETURN PRISK 1 0 0.001748061 0.00027305 0.9 0.1 0.001756276 0.000251564 0.8 0.2 0.001764491 0.000240954 0.7 0.3 0.001772706 0.000241222 0.6 0.4 0.001780921 0.000252367 0.5 0.5 0.001789136 0.000274388 0.4 0.6 0.00179735 0.000307287 0.3 0.7 0.001805565 0.000351062 0.2 0.8 0.00181378 0.000405715 0.1 0.9 0.001821995 0.000471244 0 1 0.00183021 0.00054765 Portfolio Risk 0.18% P 0.18% o R 0.18% r e t 0.18% t f Portfolio Risk u 0.18% o r l 0.17% n i 0.00% 0.02% 0.04% 0.06% o Portfolio Risk Its shows that this is a good portfolio to invest in as the return with the risk is high. Efficient WEIGHT Portfolio WEIGHT TCS TATAMOTORS PRETURN PRISK 0.75246071 0.24753929 0.18% 0.02% Sukant Arora Page 14 JGU ID 20100040
  • 15. PORTFOLIO RETURN WHEN THREE COMPANIES ARE CONSIDERED WEIGHTS TCS WEIGHTS TATAMOTORS WEIGHTS TATA STEEL PRETURN PRISK 1 0 0 0.000919177 0.000309533 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.000817808 0.000220715 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.000619667 0.000206507 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.000717359 0.000197752 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.000519218 0.000195597 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.00071552 0.000215974 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.000419688 0.000204206 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.000616909 0.000203844 0 0.2 0.8 0.000121098 0.000280978 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.00061507 0.000252768 0 1 0 0.000909983 0.00039781 Portfolio Risk 0.001 0.0009 0.0008 0.0007 0.0006 0.0005 Portfolio Risk 0.0004 0.0003 0.0002 0.0001 0 0 0.0001 0.0002 0.0003 0.0004 0.0005 Sukant Arora Page 15 JGU ID 20100040
  • 16. Beta Values Year 2005 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.597960418 R Square 0.357556661 Adjusted R Square 0.354966164 Standard Error 0.014130095 Observations 250 ANOVA df Regression 1 Residual 248 Total 249 Coefficients Intercept -0.000191983 X Variable 1 0.946364856 Year 2006 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.342942131 R Square 0.117609305 Adjusted R Square 0.114036873 Standard Error 0.046817395 Observations 249 ANOVA df Regression 1 Residual 247 Total 248 Coefficients Intercept -0.002686424 X Variable 1 1.031653124 Sukant Arora Page 16 JGU ID 20100040
  • 17. Year 2007 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.601319603 R Square 0.361585265 Adjusted R Square 0.358990083 Standard Error 0.015062307 Observations 248 ANOVA df Regression 1 Residual 246 Total 247 Coefficients Intercept -0.001807317 X Variable 1 0.705404576 Year 2008 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.668701815 R Square 0.447162118 Adjusted R Square 0.444887065 Standard Error 0.02700703 Observations 245 ANOVA df Regression 1 Residual 243 Total 244 Coefficients Intercept -0.000661628 X Variable 1 0.86140481 Sukant Arora Page 17 JGU ID 20100040
  • 18. Year 2009 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.330500204 R Square 0.109230385 Adjusted R Square 0.105518845 Standard Error 0.050139555 Observations 242 ANOVA df Regression 1 Residual 240 Total 241 Coefficients Intercept -0.000119217 X Variable 1 0.817881085 Year 2010 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.508462962 R Square 0.258534584 Adjusted R Square 0.255556811 Standard Error 0.014257285 Observations 251 ANOVA df Regression 1 Residual 249 Total 250 Coefficients Intercept 0.001228793 X Variable 1 0.819226819 Sukant Arora Page 18 JGU ID 20100040
  • 19. Year Beta Intercept 2005 0.946365 -0.00019 2006 1.031653 -0.00269 2007 0.705405 -0.00181 2008 0.861405 -0.00066 2009 0.817881 -0.00012 2010 0.819227 0.001266 Industry Beta= .77 1.2 0.0015 0.001 1 0.0005 0.8 0 -0.0005 0.6 Beta -0.001 Intercept 0.4 -0.0015 -0.002 0.2 -0.0025 0 -0.003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 From the data, we observe that the company has almost has same value of Beta from linear regression technique and Normal computation using Covariance between return on company stock and the market return and, the variance in the market return. This is because of the fact that the relationship between the changes in returns of the company with respect to changes in the market returns is a constant. Here the Beta value of the stock is different from year to year because here the market is driving the stock not vice versa. The beta of the stock was in sync of the industry and was going in the same direction of the industry and the other stocks of the company. Sukant Arora Page 19 JGU ID 20100040