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Flash comment Economic commentary by Economic Research Department November 23, 2011 Latvian unemployment rate down to 14.4% in 3Q 2011 Labour market indicators, Latvian unemployment rate declined from 16.2% in 2Q 2011 to % of econ. active 14.4% in 3Q 2011, according to Labour Force Survey’s results 25 69 published by Latvian Central Statistical Bureau. This was mostly 20 68 due to job creation, although part of these jobs is likely to be 15 67 seasonal. Number of inactive persons increased only marginally 10 66 (participation rate at 65.6% from 65.7% a quarter ago). 5 65 In 3Q 2011 there were by 24 thousand more employed comparing 0 64 to 3Q 2010. Of that, number of participants in labour market -5 63 programs decreased by 2 thousand compared to 3Q 2010 -10 Unemploym. rate 62 (currently comprising 2.7% of total employment). Employment -15 Employment, yoy 61 growth slowed down to 2.5% in annual terms from 3.3% in 2Q Participation rate (rs) 2011. At the same time, employment rate continued to increase, to -20 60 1Q 06 1Q 07 1Q 08 1Q 09 1Q 10 1Q 11 56.1% from 55.1% a quarter ago. Source: CSBL Despite quite a substantial fall in unemployment (by 45 thousand Unemployed by duration, persons during the year), there are still 165 thousand job-seekers. thsd persons 55% of them is seeking for a job for more than a year already. In 250 10 addition there are 42 thousand inactive persons, who lost hope to find a job. 200 8 150 6 Outlook 100 4 Job creation is likely to slow down next year (below 20 thsd). The main reason for that is uncertainty both with respect to external 50 2 development (e.g., how eurozone performs and what will be the demand for Latvian exported goods and services) and internal 0 0 factors (e.g. how employers’ and employees’ needs match with 1Q 06 1Q 07 1Q 08 1Q 09 1Q 10 1Q 11 Lost hope finding a job, % respect to skills, wages, motivation, still existing opportunities to >12M 6-11M of total inactive(rs) increase effectiveness of companies). <6M Source: CSBL Employment expectations in September-October in retail and Employment expectations, construction became negative again, meaning that there are more points companies planning to shed labour than those planning to increase 40 number of employees. At the same time, employment expectations in manufacturing and services are still positive. Consumers’ 20 unemployment expectations have increased during the same 0 period, reflecting growing concerns about safety of existing jobs. -20 Unless there are changes in economic policy to more actively -40 promote employment, (supporting economic growth, re-education -60 unemployed etc.), job creation is likely to remain sluggish and thus emigration risks high. -80 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Lija Strašuna Manufacturing Services Senior Economist Retail Construction Source: DG ECFIN + 371 6 744 5875 email@example.comSwedbank Economic Research Department Flash comment is published as a service to our customers. We believe that we have used reliable sources and methods in the preparation of the analyses reported in this publication.SE-105 34 Stockholm, Sweden However, we cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the report and cannot firstname.lastname@example.org held responsible for any error or omission in the underlying material or its use. Readers arewww.swedbank.com encouraged to base any (investment) decisions on other material as well. Neither Swedbank nor its employees may be held responsible for losses or damages, direct orLegally responsible publisher indirect, owing to any errors or omissions in Flash comment.Cecilia Hermansson, +46 8 5859 7720