- Swedbank reported continued solid results in the first half of 2008, with net profit increasing 8% year-over-year.
- The Baltic economies are slowing down more than expected due to weaker European demand and internal imbalances, requiring restructuring.
- The Swedish economy is also slowing gradually, with signs of declining lending growth and isolated stressed customers, though credit quality remains good overall.
- Swedbank is well capitalized and aims to maintain a Tier 1 capital ratio of 8.5-9.0% going forward to support sustainable growth across its markets.
2. (2)
Continued solid results in Q2
• Continued solid results in all
business areas
– Net profit for the period Jan-Jun
increased by 8 percent to
SEK 6 504m (6 022)
• Conversion to covered bonds on
21 April – decreased spreads,
increased liquidity and facilitated
funding
• New capital adequacy objective
for full Basel 2 – Tier 1 capital
ratio is to be 8.5-9.0 percent
• Credit quality remains good and in
line with expectations
• The macro environment in the
Baltic states has deteriorated
compared with expectations in
Q1, affected by a weaker
European economy
• Net gains and losses on financial
items were positively affected by
unrealized valuation effects –
valuation volatility expected to
decrease as from Q3 2008.
3. (3)
H1 2008 – best half-year so far
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Q2
06
Q3
06
Q4
06
Q1
07
Q2
07
Q3
07
Q4
07
Q1
08
Q2
08
Profit for the period of which First Securities
SEKm
Swedish Banking Baltic Banking International Banking Swedbank Markets
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Q1
07
Q2
07
Q3
07
Q4
07
Q1
08
Q2
08
Profit for the period
SEKmSEKm
900
950
1 000
1 050
1 100
1 150
1 200
1 250
1 300
Q1
07
Q2
07
Q3
07
Q4
07
Q1
08
Q2
08
Profit for the period
SEKm
25
50
75
100
125
150
Q1
07
Q2
07
Q3
07
Q4
07
Q1
08
Q2
08
Profit for the period
SEKm
4. (4)
Initiatives in line with our strategy
Ukraine and RussiaBalticsSweden
Stable base
Growth and
experience
Future growth and
profitability
• Structural initiatives –
operation and branches
• Channel management
• Corporate market and
metropolitan areas
• Private banking, life and
pension, environmentally
friendly products and services
• Build-up of critical functions
and growth management
• Grow distribution network -
ATMs, branches and agency
network
• Broaden product range
• Re-branding completed
• Capture future growth
• Productivity improvement
• Cross-border capabilities
• IT management and
development
• Corporate sector – leverage on
pan-Baltic position
• Broaden customer offerings
• Re-branding starting in autumn
Share of lending: 80 % Share of lending: 16 % Share of lending: 2 %
5. (5)
The Swedish economy is slowing
Real GDP growth
0,6%
1,2%
1,7%
2,3%
2,9%
2007 2008F 2009F
Sweden Euro-zone
CPI growth
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
2007 2008F 2009F
Sweden Euro-zone
• The Swedish economy has performed strongly the past few years. GDP growth, CPI and other
indicators show that the Swedish economy will grow more slowly in the next few quarters
• Higher inflation, rising interest rates and weaker disposable income for households are
expected to lead to weakening household consumption and credit growth.
Source: Swedbank, Economic Secretariat
6. (6)
Baltic macro development
• Baltic growth decelerates
– Less favourable global situation, e.g. weaker
export demand, more expensive borrowing
– Imbalances built up during the times of rapid
credit growth weigh heavy on the economies
• Need of restructuring evident
– To return to a sustainable growth path, a move
away from non-tradables and towards tradables
is necessary: restructuring is costly and takes
time
– There are signs of restructuring underway, but it
is far from complete
– The deepest slowing likely to be seen in LV
where imbalances have been largest
Real GDP growth, % YoY
-5
0
5
10
15
Q1 02 Q1 03 Q1 04 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08
%
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Domestic Credit and Housing Loans, % of GDP
0
25
50
75
100
Q1 02 Q1 03 Q1 04 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08
%
EEDomestic
credit
EEHousing
loans
LV Domestic
credit
LV Housing
loans
LT Domestic
credit
LT Housing
loans
Average Labour Productivity growth, % YoY
-5
0
5
10
15
Q1 02 Q1 03 Q1 04 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08
%
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
7. (7)
Baltic macro outlook
• Fall in activity will be shallower and recovery faster than benchmark’s (busts in
industrial countries)
– Less institutional rigidities
– Fiscal and monetary policies likely to be less pro-cyclical, support from EU funds
– Low actual level of leverage in the economy
• Household consumption will contract
• Investment will contract
• Imports will contract due to shrinking consumption and investment
• Recovery in late 2009–2010 depends on global recovery in H2 2009 Export
development outlook
– Producer price inflation of exported goods has swiftly decreased
– By 2009 energy prices will have converged to the levels of western Europe
– Companies are increasingly investing to improve their productivity thus improving their
resistance to negative shocks
• Real estate market will lag behind overall recovery as consumers will be unsure
about the start of recovery and will try to rebuild their depleted savings first
8. (8)
Summary – economy and banking sector
• Baltic economies have strong long term growth potential, e.g.
– Average labour productivity being at 60-70% of the EU 27 average provides
ample opportunities for productivity convergence
– EU funds are expected to amount to ca 2% of annual GDP till 2013, providing
support to real convergence
– Only 15-25% of households have mortgages
– Good institutional framework, e.g. in the World Bank’s Doing Business 2008
index Latvia ranked 22nd among 175 countries
• Significant restructuring of the economies and the banking sector is
expected - different risk assessment, different pricing and labour lay-offs
– Successful return to sustainable growth path and stability achieved only if
successful structural reforms are implemented to boost productivity
10. (10)
Credit quality, Baltic Banking
0.54%
0.30%
0.73%
0.55%
Q2 08
0.39%
0.25%
0.53%
0.38%
Q1 08
0.47%
0.28%
0.64%
0.48%
H1 08
-0.18%Group level provision adjustment
0.28%Baltic Banking
0.10%Lithuania
0.63%Latvia
0.58%Estonia
Q4 07
*Loan loss ratio, net = (changes in provisions + net write-offs) /
credit portfolio at the beginning of the period
Loan loss ratio, net*
Overdue ratio (more than 60 days)*
0.86%
0.92%
0.79%
Q1 08
1.20%
1.11%
1.24%
Q2 08
0.71%Baltic Banking
0.75%Private
0.65%Corporate
Q4 07
*Overdue ratio (more than 60 days) = volume of loans more
than 60 days overdue /12 month-old credit portfolio
11. (11)
Baltic banking overdues vs market
Estonia - overdue over 60 days / current
portfolio
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
31.12.05
30.06.06
31.12.06
30.06.07
31.12.07
30.04.08
Rest of the market HB Bank
Estonia - overdue over 30 days / current
portfolio
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
31.12.05
30.06.06
31.12.06
30.06.07
31.12.07
30.04.08
Rest of the market HB Bank
Latvia - overdue over 30 days / current portfolio
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
31.12.04
30.06.05
31.12.05
30.06.06
31.12.06
30.06.07
31.12.07
Rest of the market HBA Bank
Latvia - overdue over 90 days / current portfolio
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
31.12.04
30.06.05
31.12.05
30.06.06
31.12.06
30.06.07
31.12.07
Rest of the market HBA Bank
Source: Swedbank, Bank of Estonia, and Financial and Capital Market Commission (Latvia)
12. (12)
Un-
secured;
30
Secured;
1350
Recent events: Lehman Brothers
Total exposure, secured and un-secured (USDm)
• Swedbank has performed an investigation on
site in the US of the collateral, i.e. commercial
real estate loans, with accompanying
documentation. Also, these loans’ collateral (real
estate) have been investigated.
• The commercial real estate loans are all
performing and the collateral is good.
• Swedbank assessment is that there is no need
for provisions. This opinion is confirmed by the
external auditor Deloitte.
• More information will be available at the time of
the Q3 report.
Un-secured: Derivatives
of USDm 13 million and
bonds with a nominal
value of USDm 17
million, relating to six
companies within the
Lehman Brothers Group.
Secured: The collateral consists
of a pool of 70 real estate
debtors, with a variety of US real
estate of substantial
geographical diversity with a
maximum loan to value ratio of
72% as underlying asset.
13. (13)
Observations so far during Q3
• Baltic macro development continue to be weak – no surprises in
credit quality
• Signs of declining lending growth in Sweden foremost in private
sector but also towards corporates
• Tight funding markets with increasing spreads for all players
– The funding market is expected to remain tough throughout 2008
• Trading, especially equities, continues to be slow
• Internal risk rating, risk profile, watch list and loan losses has
remained stable in Sweden
• Swedish macro development is slowing – isolated customers in
segments such as capital goods and retail trade are getting more
stressed
14. (14)
Swedbank lending and funding
Swedbank Treasury (excluding Mortgage)
• Large deposits
• Liquidity reserves
• Net lender in the interbank market
• Liquidity limits – conservative view
Swedbank Mortgage
constitutes a larger part of
Swedbank Group’s balance
sheet than other financial
institutions
Distribution of Net Funding Need
Swedbank Mortgage
Lending to the public, SEK 1,169bn
Swedbank
Group, excl.
Swedbank
Mortgage
SEK 596bn
Swedbank
Mortgage
SEK 573bn
- Exclusively Swedish
mortgage lending
Funding
12%
Equity
8%
Deposits
80%
Covered Bonds
73%
Equity
5%
Commercial
Papers
22%
Ukraine
1%
Russia
1%
Lithuania
5%
Latvia
5%
Estonia
7%
Swedbank
Mortgage
49%
Sweden
30%
Nordic; 3%
15. (15)
Maturity profile Swedbank long-term funding
Swedbank Mortgage - Long term funding, maturity profile
June 30 2008
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-
SEK bn
Covered
Swedbank AB - Long term funding, maturity profile
June 30 2008
0
20
40
60
80
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-
SEK bn
Senior Subordinated
16. (16)
New capital adequacy target – mid-term
• New target:
The capital ratios will at least meet the level that at any given time is
considered appropriate to maintain sustainable financial stability and
develop operations. Considering full effect of Basel 2, the Tier 1 capital ratio
is to be 8.5-9.0%.
• Swedbank is currently well capitalized given the current risk profile and the
risk development under an adverse scenario
• Swedbank is currently capitalized in line with European peers in full Basel 2
• In relative terms Swedbank has a low risk business model with a
predominance of Swedish mortgage business and low counterparty risks,
which indicates a lower than average Tier 1 capital ratio. Growing presence
in Eastern Europe indicates higher Tier 1 capital ratio
17. (17)
Summary
• Swedbank offers a strong and stable banking operation with high
profitability across several geographical areas
• Baltics is continuing to slow down, need for further restructuring, strong
long-term growth potential intact
• Signs off a gradual slow down of lending growth in Sweden, credit quality
remains strong
• Focus on efficiency to secure continued profitable growth
• Solid results in H1 2008