A presentation given at the 2016 Traffic Safety Conference during Closing Session: Technologies Enhancing Transportation Safety. By Mikio Yanagisawa, Engineer, Advanced Vehicle Technology, US Department of Transportation, Volpe Center

1. Estimating Potential Safety Benefits for
AdvancedVehicleTechnologies
Mikio Yanagisawa
The National Transportation Systems Center
Advancing transportation innovation for the public good
U.S. Department of Transportation
Office of the Secretary of Transportation
John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center
June 8, 2016

2. 2
Presentation Outline
 Background
 How do we project potential safety benefits?
 What is the crash problem?
 Examine key steps within the process
 Projecting safety benefits

3. 3
• Division within the Volpe Center
• Research Crash Avoidance: Identify
effective intervention opportunities for
vehicle or cooperative based warning and
automated systems and estimate
potential safety benefits.
– National crash data query and typology
– Test procedures and instrumentation
– Data mining and analysis of naturalistic
driving data
– Safety benefits estimation and simulation
tools
• Also: Safety of Automotive Electronics
• Also: Vehicle Cybersecurity
AdvancedVehicleTechnology Research
Crash
Problem
Definition
Counter-
measure
Functions
Objective
Tests
System
Evaluation
Safety
Benefits
Estimation

4. 4
Technologies Researched
Level Vehicle Feature
Driver
Drowsy Driver Detection
Pre-Crash Sensing - Advanced Restraints
Vehicle-Based
Intelligent Cruise Control & Forward Collision Warning
Lane Change Warning & Lane Drift Warning
Lateral Drift Warning & Curve Speed Warning
Pedestrian Warning
Cooperative
Technology
Intersection Movement Assist
Left Turn Assist
Blind Spot Warning
Electronic Emergency Brake Lighting
Do Not Pass Warning
Vehicle-to-Infrastructure
Vehicle-to-Pedestrian
Automatic
Controls
Crash Imminent Braking
Lane Keeping Technology
Cooperative Cruise Control

5. 5
Projecting Potential Safety Benefits
Exposure Ratio ≡ Probability of encountering a driving conflict
Crash Prevention Ratio ≡ Probability of a crash given an encounter with a driving conflict
𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶=
1 − 𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬 𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹 × 𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪 𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷 𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 =
# 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 × 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶
• Ratios are estimated from driver/vehicle/system performance data with
and without automated vehicle functions
• Approach is used in vehicle-based, vehicle-to-vehicle, and pedestrian
safety system research
• Potential to estimate injury mitigation
• Identify and define a safety system

6. 6
Safety Benefits Estimation Data Flow
Safety
Benefits
Crash Data
Pre-Crash
Scenarios
Field Data
Driving
Conflicts
Modeling
Crash
Probability

7. 7
National CrashTrends
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
NumberofCrashes
(Thousands)
Calendar Year
Injury Crashes Fatal Crashes Property Damage Only Crashes
In 2014: 3,026B Miles 275M Registered 214M Licensed
Since 2001: VMT ↑8% Vehicles ↑24% Drivers ↑12%
Source: NHTSA Traffic Safety Facts 2014, DOT HS 512 261

8. 8
Crash FatalitiesTrends
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
%ofAllFatalities
NumberofFatalities
FARS Crash Year
Total Fatalities % Pedestrians % Cyclists % Motorcyclist
Total fatalities have decreased by 9,521 (↓ 23%)
Since 2001: Pedestrians ↑3% Cyclists ↑ 1% Motorcyclists ↑ 7%
Source: NHTSA Traffic Safety Facts 2014, DOT HS 512 261

9. 9
Defining 37 Pre-Crash Scenarios
Crash Type Pre-Crash Scenario Crash Type Pre-Crash Scenario
Animal/maneuver No Driver No driver present
Animal/no maneuver Non-Collision Non-collision - No Impact
Backing Backing into vehicle Object/maneuver
Control loss/vehicle action Object/no maneuver
Control loss/no vehicle action Opposite direction/maneuver
Turn right @ signal Opposite direction/no maneuver
Straight crossing paths @ non signal Other - Opposite Direction
Turn @ non signal Other Other
Other - Turn Across Path Parking Parking/same direction
Other - Turn Into Path Pedestrian/maneuver
Other - Straight Paths Pedestrian/no maneuver
Running red light Rear-end/striking maneuver
Running stop sign Rear-end/lead vehicle accelerating
Cyclist/maneuver Rear-end/lead vehicle moving @ constant speed
Cyclist/no maneuver Rear-end/lead vehicle decelerating
Evasive maneuver/maneuver Rear-end/lead vehicle stopped
Evasive maneuver/no maneuver Other - Rear-End
Hit andRun Hit and run Road edge departure/maneuver
Turning/same direction Road edge departure/no maneuver
Changing lanes/same direction Road edge departure/backing
Drifting/same direction Rollover Rollover
LTAP/OD @ signal Sideswipe Other - Sideswipe
LTAP/OD @ non signal Vehicle Failure Vehicle failure
Animal
Control Loss
Crossing Paths
Cyclist
Evasive
Rear-End
RoadDeparture
Lane Change
Left Turn Across Path/
Opposite Direction (LTAP/OD)
Object
Opposite Direction
Pedestrian
Source: Pre-Crash Scenario Typology for Crash Avoidance Research, 2007 NHTSA , DOT HS 810 767

10. 10
Example Pre-Crash Scenarios
Rear-End – Lead Vehicle Stopped
Lane Change
Straight Crossing Paths
Left Turn Across Path /
Opposite Direction

11. 11
Crash
Prevention
Ratio
Crash Probability Estimation
Field
Operational
Tests
Safety Impact
Methodology
Tool
Objective
Tests
Historical
Research
SIMULATION
• Treatment
• Crash Counts
• Impact Speeds
• ΔV Values
Analysis
and
Results
INPUTS
• Pre-Crash Data
• System Data
• Driver Data
ANALYSIS
• Crash Avoidance
• System Effectiveness
• Safety Benefits
National
Crash
Databases
Exposure
Ratio

12. 12
Potential Crash Avoidance Effectiveness
Source: Various publications including: New Car Assessment Program, Notice For Proposed Rulemaking,
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety research, and Enhanced Safety of Vehicle research
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
ForwardCollision
Warning
Intersection
Movement
Assist
LeftTurnAssist
RoadDeparture
CrashWarning
Adaptive
CruiseControl
ElectronicStability
PedestrianCrash
Avoidance/Mitigation
IgnitionInterlock
PotentialSystemEffectiveness
Vehicle Feature

13. 13
Example of Potential Safety Benefits
• Deployment, penetration
rates
• Driver interaction
• Acceptance, usage,
misuse, negligence, and
abuse
• False activation
• Unintended consequences
• Operational boundaries
• Speed, environment
• Crash statistics over time
• Improvement of technology
Other Factors
Source: NHTSA V2V Readiness Document, 2014, DOT HS 812 014
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Intersection
Movement Assist
Left Turn Assist
AnnualNumberofCrashes
(Thousands)
Communication-Based Warning System
Crashes Reduced Remaining Crashes
48%
49%

14. 14
Mikio Yanagisawa
Advanced Vehicle Technology
mikio.yanagisawa@dot.gov
(617) 494 – 3846
Volpe Center
55 Broadway
Cambridge, MA 02142
www.volpe.dot.gov
Questions and Contact