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Fraud Risk Assessment (Part 2)


Detection and Prevention Techniques

TAHIR ABBAS
CIA,CISA,CFE,CRMA
The only certainty is uncertainty

Event:
Occurrence of a particular set of circumstances.
Frequency:
A measure of the number of occurrence's per unit of time.
Hazard:
A source of potential harm or a situation with a potential to
cause loss.
Consequence:
Outcome or impact of an event.
Likelihood:
A general description of probability or frequency.
Fraud Risk Assessment

         Foundations of an effective fraud risk
                    management
• Identify inherent fraud risk
• Assess the likelihood and significance of inherent
  fraud risk
• Developing a response to reasonably likely and
  significant inherent and residual fraud risk
Fraud Risk Assessment


– Identify inherent fraud risk
   • Where could things go wrong
   • Industry, geo-political risks
   • Company risks
      – Incentive plans
      – Growth rate
      – Consolidation
   • Risk of management override
– Assess the likelihood and significance of inherent
  fraud risk
    • Likelihood – remote, possible, probably
    • Significance – not just dollars; reputation,
      management time
Risk/Control Sample Matrix
Procurement Fraud Risk Assessment



Corruption
Context
Document
Fraud Risk- List down
Likelihood
Impact
Control
Procurement Fraud Red Flags


• Repeated awards to the     •   Awards to non-lowest
  same entity.                   bidder.
• Competitive bidder         •   Contract scope changes.
  complaints and protests. •     Numerous post-award
• Complaints about quality       contract change orders.
  and quantity.              •   Urgent need or sole
• Multiple contracts awarded     source.
  below the competitive      •   Questionable
  threshold.                     minority/disabled
• Abnormal bid patterns.         ownership.
• Agent fees.                •
• Questionable bidder.
Key Principle for Fraud Risk Management

•   As part of an organization’s governance structure, a fraud risk
    management program should be in place, including a written policy (or
    policies) to convey the expectations of the board of directors and senior
    management regarding managing fraud risk
•   Fraud risk exposure should be assessed periodically by the organization
    to identify specific potential schemes and events that the organization
    needs to mitigate.
•   Prevention techniques to avoid potential key fraud risk events should be
    established, where feasible, to mitigate possible impacts on the
    organization.
•   Detection techniques should be established to uncover fraud events
    when preventive measures fail or unmitigated risks are realized a reporting
    process should be in place to solicit input on potential fraud, and a
    coordinated
•   Approach to investigation and corrective action should be used to help
    ensure potential fraud is addressed appropriately and timely.
Preventing Fraud – A Summary

  Create a culture of Honesty,      Eliminate Opportunities
   Openness, and Assistance
                   Implement             Have good
                    Employee          internal controls
                   Assistance                             Discourage
                    Programs                               Collusion
Have a Code of Ethics                 Provide tip
                                       hotlines
                                                      Publicize company
              Create a Positive     Create an               policies
                   Work           expectation of
                Environment        punishment       Proactively audit
         Hire honest people and                        for fraud
        provide fraud awareness
                 training                     Monitor
                                             employees
Controls

Existence of a control even if
non operational can be a
deterrent and act as a real
control
Deterrence and Prevention


Deterrence modifies the person's behavior through
perception of being caught and being punished
while Prevention focuses on removing the root cause of the
problem, hence prevention and correction logically go
together.
Prevention


•   Analytical reviews
•   Mandatory vacation
•   Job rotation
•   Surprise audit
•   Oversight
•   Employee education
•   Open door polices
Prevention

Dishonest employees may not commit a fraud if they know
the organization has an oversight and confirmation
process. After giving the code of ethics to all employees (in
both hard and soft copy if possible), require that they sign
a statement that says they have read and understood the
code's requirements and will comply with them. The fraud
prevention plan should include an accountability matrix that
lists the anti-fraud functions and which staff have primary,
secondary or a shared responsibility. This then eliminates
the excuse of ignorance.
The Death Penalty
                 For Corporations

If we are going to consider the corporation to be a person
   and afford it the same kinds of rights and freedoms
   that are extended to the individual, perhaps it is time to
   revise the methods by which we hold the corporate
   "person" accountable. We should impose the same kind
   of punishments that we have established for
   individuals. If a corporation is convicted in the courts
   for a violation of law, we should curtail its freedom to
   conduct business for a period of time. In the event of
   repeat offenses, the penalties should be increased. In
   those instances where a corporation severely violates
   the public trust, it should cease to exist. The corporate
   charter should be revoked, the assets seized and the
   corporation dissolved.
Reactive Fraud Detection
Fraud Prevention Checklist

Is ongoing anti-fraud training provided to all
employees of the organization?
 Understand what constitutes fraud?
 Have the costs of fraud to the company and everyone in
  it — including lost profits, adverse publicity, job loss and
  decreased morale and productivity — been made clear
  to employees?
 Do employees know where to seek advice when faced
  with uncertain ethical decisions, and do they believe that
  they can speak freely?
 Has a policy of zero-tolerance for fraud been
  communicated to employees through words and
  actions?
Fraud Prevention Checklist


Is an effective fraud reporting mechanism in
place?
 Have employees been taught how to communicate
  concerns about known or potential wrongdoing?
 Is there an anonymous reporting channel available to
  employees, such as a third-party hotline?
 Do employees trust that they can report suspicious activity
  anonymously and/or confidentially and without fear of
  reprisal?
 Has it been made clear to employees that reports of
  suspicious activity will be promptly and thoroughly
  evaluated?
Fraud Prevention Checklist


Are strong anti-fraud controls in place and
operating effectively, including the
following?
    Proper separation of duties
    Use of authorizations
    Physical safeguards
    Job rotations
    Mandatory vacations
Detection

–   Process controls
–   Anonymous Reporting/hotline
–   Internal Audit
–   Benchmark
–   Measurements
–   Computer Checks for Anomalies
–   Interviews
Forensic Accounting


Forensic accounting or financial forensics is
the specialty practice area of accountancy that
describes engagements that result from actual or
anticipated disputes or litigation. "Forensic" means
"suitable for use in a court of law", and it is to that
standard and potential outcome that forensic
accountants generally have to work. Forensic
accountants, also referred to as forensic auditors
or investigative auditors, often have to give expert
evidence at the eventual trial.
Forensic Auditing


Forensic auditing is a type of auditing that
specifically looks for financial misconduct,
and abusive or wasteful activity.

It is most commonly associated with
gathering evidence that will be presented
in a court of law as part of a financial crime
or a fraud investigation.
Forensic Accounting Factors


• Time: Forensic accounting focuses on the past,
  although it may do so in order to look forward
  (e.g., damages, valuations).
• Purpose: Forensic accounting is performed for a
  specific legal forum or in anticipation of
  appearing before a legal forum.
• Peremptory: Forensic accountants may be
  employed in a wide variety of risk management
  engagements within business enterprises as a
  matter of right, without the necessity of
  allegations (e.g., proactive).
Forensic Audit Approaches


• Direct methods involve probing missing income
  by pointing to specific items of income that do not
  appear on the tax return. In direct methods, the
  agents use conventional auditing techniques such as
  looking for canceled checks of customers, deed
  records of real estate transactions, public records
  and other direct evidence of unreported income.

• Indirect methods use economic reality and
  financial status techniques in which the taxpayer’s
  finances are reconstructed through circumstantial
  evidence.
Indirect Methods

An indirect method should be used when:
• The taxpayer has inadequate books and records
• The books do not clearly reflect taxable income
• There is a reason to believe that the taxpayer has
  omitted taxable income
• There is a significant increase in year-to-year net
  worth
• Gross profit percentages change significantly for that
  particular business
• The taxpayer’s expenses (both business and
  personal) exceed reported income and there is no
  obvious cause for the difference
How internal controls Can detect fraud?

• Can internal controls detect fraud?
Method for detecting frauds


•   Percentage markup method for proving income
•   Data Analysis
•   Fraud Assessment tools
•   Bedford analysis
•   Link Analysis
•   Interviewing strategies
•   Linguistic Text Analysis
Percentage markup method for proving
              Income
Data Analysis

• Article provided

• Ratios, hor , vertical
Bedford analysis




Article provided
Link Analysis


Given the complexity of serious fraud investigations, and the significant
number of individuals and entities ordinarily involved, the employment
of an analytic procedure known as 'link network diagramming' -
commonly referred to as 'link analysis' - should be considered to
facilitate the investigation and case structuring. Link analysis is
essentially a graphic method for integrating and displaying large
amounts of data which are related to complicated criminal activities
and civil wrongs. The construction of a link analysis diagram should
enhance the integration and presentation of relevant evidence or
information that is:
• connected to various financial accounts, individuals and entities;
• collected by or from different sources; and
• spread over a protracted period of time.
Link Analysis

Essentially, the link analysis technique is comprised of two sequential
steps. The first step is the conversion of written material containing
summaries of investigative findings into a graphic form called an
'association matrix'. The second step is the conversion of the matrix
into a diagram intended to facilitate understanding of the relationships
contained therein. The association matrix is essentially an interim step
in producing graphic material to assist investigators, prosecutors and
civil litigation counsel. The goal is the development of pictorial data
which clearly shows the relationships between people, organizations
and activities. It allows an analyst or a trier-of-fact ready access to the
big picture in complex matters. As the final diagram depicts
relationships (or links) between people, organizations and activities,
the generally accepted name for such pictorial data is a 'link analysis'
diagram.
Interviewing strategies

• Interviewing
Linguistic Text Analysis



   Lack of self-reference    Euphemisms
   Verb tense                Alluding to actions
   Answering Q with Q        Lack of Detail
   Equivocation              Narrative balance
   Oaths                     Mean Length
Linguistic Text Analysis



• ON SLIDE NO 77 AND 78 OF FIRST PART
  PRESENTATION ALREADY PROVIDED

•   http://www.fraud-magazine.com/article.aspx?id=4294971184
11 vital questions to answer within the
    first 24 hours of a fraud allegation:


• Does the alleged activity constitute fraud?
• Who is involved?
• How should those who were involved in the fraud be
  handled?
• Are there any co-conspirators?
• How much was lost to fraud?
• During what period did the fraud occur?
• How did the fraud occur?
• How was the fraud identified?
• Could the fraud have been detected earlier?
• What can be done to prevent similar frauds?
• Should the conduct be disclosed to the authorities?
Tone at top


• What is the “tone at the top”?
• Major fraud factors
  – Meeting analysts’ expectations
  – Compensation and incentives
  – Pressure to reach goals


• Why employees don’t report
  unethical conduct????
Tone at top
• COMMON ETHICAL VIOLATIONS

• Abusive or intimidating behavior of superiors
  toward employees (21 percent)
• Lying to employees, customers, vendors, or the
  public (19 percent)
• A situation that places employee interests over
  organizational interests (18 percent)
• Violations of safety regulations (16 percent)
• Misreporting actual time or hours worked (16
  percent)
COMMON ETHICAL VIOLATIONS

Stealing, theft, or related fraud (11 percent)
• Sexual harassment (9 percent)
• Provision of goods or services that fail to meet
specifications (8 percent)
• Misuse of confidential information (7 percent)
• Price fixing (3 percent)
• Giving or accepting bribes, kickbacks, or inappropriate gifts
(3 percent)
• E-mail and Internet abuse (13 percent)
• Discrimination on the basis of race, color, gender, age, or
similar categories (12
• percent)

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Fraud Risk Assessment Techniques

  • 1. Fraud Risk Assessment (Part 2) Detection and Prevention Techniques TAHIR ABBAS CIA,CISA,CFE,CRMA
  • 2. The only certainty is uncertainty Event: Occurrence of a particular set of circumstances. Frequency: A measure of the number of occurrence's per unit of time. Hazard: A source of potential harm or a situation with a potential to cause loss. Consequence: Outcome or impact of an event. Likelihood: A general description of probability or frequency.
  • 3. Fraud Risk Assessment Foundations of an effective fraud risk management • Identify inherent fraud risk • Assess the likelihood and significance of inherent fraud risk • Developing a response to reasonably likely and significant inherent and residual fraud risk
  • 4. Fraud Risk Assessment – Identify inherent fraud risk • Where could things go wrong • Industry, geo-political risks • Company risks – Incentive plans – Growth rate – Consolidation • Risk of management override – Assess the likelihood and significance of inherent fraud risk • Likelihood – remote, possible, probably • Significance – not just dollars; reputation, management time
  • 6. Procurement Fraud Risk Assessment Corruption Context Document Fraud Risk- List down Likelihood Impact Control
  • 7. Procurement Fraud Red Flags • Repeated awards to the • Awards to non-lowest same entity. bidder. • Competitive bidder • Contract scope changes. complaints and protests. • Numerous post-award • Complaints about quality contract change orders. and quantity. • Urgent need or sole • Multiple contracts awarded source. below the competitive • Questionable threshold. minority/disabled • Abnormal bid patterns. ownership. • Agent fees. • • Questionable bidder.
  • 8. Key Principle for Fraud Risk Management • As part of an organization’s governance structure, a fraud risk management program should be in place, including a written policy (or policies) to convey the expectations of the board of directors and senior management regarding managing fraud risk • Fraud risk exposure should be assessed periodically by the organization to identify specific potential schemes and events that the organization needs to mitigate. • Prevention techniques to avoid potential key fraud risk events should be established, where feasible, to mitigate possible impacts on the organization. • Detection techniques should be established to uncover fraud events when preventive measures fail or unmitigated risks are realized a reporting process should be in place to solicit input on potential fraud, and a coordinated • Approach to investigation and corrective action should be used to help ensure potential fraud is addressed appropriately and timely.
  • 9. Preventing Fraud – A Summary Create a culture of Honesty, Eliminate Opportunities Openness, and Assistance Implement Have good Employee internal controls Assistance Discourage Programs Collusion Have a Code of Ethics Provide tip hotlines Publicize company Create a Positive Create an policies Work expectation of Environment punishment Proactively audit Hire honest people and for fraud provide fraud awareness training Monitor employees
  • 10. Controls Existence of a control even if non operational can be a deterrent and act as a real control
  • 11. Deterrence and Prevention Deterrence modifies the person's behavior through perception of being caught and being punished while Prevention focuses on removing the root cause of the problem, hence prevention and correction logically go together.
  • 12. Prevention • Analytical reviews • Mandatory vacation • Job rotation • Surprise audit • Oversight • Employee education • Open door polices
  • 13. Prevention Dishonest employees may not commit a fraud if they know the organization has an oversight and confirmation process. After giving the code of ethics to all employees (in both hard and soft copy if possible), require that they sign a statement that says they have read and understood the code's requirements and will comply with them. The fraud prevention plan should include an accountability matrix that lists the anti-fraud functions and which staff have primary, secondary or a shared responsibility. This then eliminates the excuse of ignorance.
  • 14. The Death Penalty For Corporations If we are going to consider the corporation to be a person and afford it the same kinds of rights and freedoms that are extended to the individual, perhaps it is time to revise the methods by which we hold the corporate "person" accountable. We should impose the same kind of punishments that we have established for individuals. If a corporation is convicted in the courts for a violation of law, we should curtail its freedom to conduct business for a period of time. In the event of repeat offenses, the penalties should be increased. In those instances where a corporation severely violates the public trust, it should cease to exist. The corporate charter should be revoked, the assets seized and the corporation dissolved.
  • 16. Fraud Prevention Checklist Is ongoing anti-fraud training provided to all employees of the organization?  Understand what constitutes fraud?  Have the costs of fraud to the company and everyone in it — including lost profits, adverse publicity, job loss and decreased morale and productivity — been made clear to employees?  Do employees know where to seek advice when faced with uncertain ethical decisions, and do they believe that they can speak freely?  Has a policy of zero-tolerance for fraud been communicated to employees through words and actions?
  • 17. Fraud Prevention Checklist Is an effective fraud reporting mechanism in place?  Have employees been taught how to communicate concerns about known or potential wrongdoing?  Is there an anonymous reporting channel available to employees, such as a third-party hotline?  Do employees trust that they can report suspicious activity anonymously and/or confidentially and without fear of reprisal?  Has it been made clear to employees that reports of suspicious activity will be promptly and thoroughly evaluated?
  • 18. Fraud Prevention Checklist Are strong anti-fraud controls in place and operating effectively, including the following?  Proper separation of duties  Use of authorizations  Physical safeguards  Job rotations  Mandatory vacations
  • 19. Detection – Process controls – Anonymous Reporting/hotline – Internal Audit – Benchmark – Measurements – Computer Checks for Anomalies – Interviews
  • 20.
  • 21. Forensic Accounting Forensic accounting or financial forensics is the specialty practice area of accountancy that describes engagements that result from actual or anticipated disputes or litigation. "Forensic" means "suitable for use in a court of law", and it is to that standard and potential outcome that forensic accountants generally have to work. Forensic accountants, also referred to as forensic auditors or investigative auditors, often have to give expert evidence at the eventual trial.
  • 22. Forensic Auditing Forensic auditing is a type of auditing that specifically looks for financial misconduct, and abusive or wasteful activity. It is most commonly associated with gathering evidence that will be presented in a court of law as part of a financial crime or a fraud investigation.
  • 23. Forensic Accounting Factors • Time: Forensic accounting focuses on the past, although it may do so in order to look forward (e.g., damages, valuations). • Purpose: Forensic accounting is performed for a specific legal forum or in anticipation of appearing before a legal forum. • Peremptory: Forensic accountants may be employed in a wide variety of risk management engagements within business enterprises as a matter of right, without the necessity of allegations (e.g., proactive).
  • 24. Forensic Audit Approaches • Direct methods involve probing missing income by pointing to specific items of income that do not appear on the tax return. In direct methods, the agents use conventional auditing techniques such as looking for canceled checks of customers, deed records of real estate transactions, public records and other direct evidence of unreported income. • Indirect methods use economic reality and financial status techniques in which the taxpayer’s finances are reconstructed through circumstantial evidence.
  • 25. Indirect Methods An indirect method should be used when: • The taxpayer has inadequate books and records • The books do not clearly reflect taxable income • There is a reason to believe that the taxpayer has omitted taxable income • There is a significant increase in year-to-year net worth • Gross profit percentages change significantly for that particular business • The taxpayer’s expenses (both business and personal) exceed reported income and there is no obvious cause for the difference
  • 26. How internal controls Can detect fraud? • Can internal controls detect fraud?
  • 27. Method for detecting frauds • Percentage markup method for proving income • Data Analysis • Fraud Assessment tools • Bedford analysis • Link Analysis • Interviewing strategies • Linguistic Text Analysis
  • 28. Percentage markup method for proving Income
  • 29. Data Analysis • Article provided • Ratios, hor , vertical
  • 31. Link Analysis Given the complexity of serious fraud investigations, and the significant number of individuals and entities ordinarily involved, the employment of an analytic procedure known as 'link network diagramming' - commonly referred to as 'link analysis' - should be considered to facilitate the investigation and case structuring. Link analysis is essentially a graphic method for integrating and displaying large amounts of data which are related to complicated criminal activities and civil wrongs. The construction of a link analysis diagram should enhance the integration and presentation of relevant evidence or information that is: • connected to various financial accounts, individuals and entities; • collected by or from different sources; and • spread over a protracted period of time.
  • 32. Link Analysis Essentially, the link analysis technique is comprised of two sequential steps. The first step is the conversion of written material containing summaries of investigative findings into a graphic form called an 'association matrix'. The second step is the conversion of the matrix into a diagram intended to facilitate understanding of the relationships contained therein. The association matrix is essentially an interim step in producing graphic material to assist investigators, prosecutors and civil litigation counsel. The goal is the development of pictorial data which clearly shows the relationships between people, organizations and activities. It allows an analyst or a trier-of-fact ready access to the big picture in complex matters. As the final diagram depicts relationships (or links) between people, organizations and activities, the generally accepted name for such pictorial data is a 'link analysis' diagram.
  • 34.
  • 35. Linguistic Text Analysis  Lack of self-reference  Euphemisms  Verb tense  Alluding to actions  Answering Q with Q  Lack of Detail  Equivocation  Narrative balance  Oaths  Mean Length
  • 36.
  • 37. Linguistic Text Analysis • ON SLIDE NO 77 AND 78 OF FIRST PART PRESENTATION ALREADY PROVIDED • http://www.fraud-magazine.com/article.aspx?id=4294971184
  • 38. 11 vital questions to answer within the first 24 hours of a fraud allegation: • Does the alleged activity constitute fraud? • Who is involved? • How should those who were involved in the fraud be handled? • Are there any co-conspirators? • How much was lost to fraud? • During what period did the fraud occur? • How did the fraud occur? • How was the fraud identified? • Could the fraud have been detected earlier? • What can be done to prevent similar frauds? • Should the conduct be disclosed to the authorities?
  • 39. Tone at top • What is the “tone at the top”? • Major fraud factors – Meeting analysts’ expectations – Compensation and incentives – Pressure to reach goals • Why employees don’t report unethical conduct????
  • 40. Tone at top • COMMON ETHICAL VIOLATIONS • Abusive or intimidating behavior of superiors toward employees (21 percent) • Lying to employees, customers, vendors, or the public (19 percent) • A situation that places employee interests over organizational interests (18 percent) • Violations of safety regulations (16 percent) • Misreporting actual time or hours worked (16 percent)
  • 41. COMMON ETHICAL VIOLATIONS Stealing, theft, or related fraud (11 percent) • Sexual harassment (9 percent) • Provision of goods or services that fail to meet specifications (8 percent) • Misuse of confidential information (7 percent) • Price fixing (3 percent) • Giving or accepting bribes, kickbacks, or inappropriate gifts (3 percent) • E-mail and Internet abuse (13 percent) • Discrimination on the basis of race, color, gender, age, or similar categories (12 • percent)