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Food & agriculture background t haniotis_linke_in
- 1. 1 Key data on agriculture and its link to climate change and food security • Annex accompanying the LinkedIn article on • “Food Security and Climate Change in the Times of COVID-19” • Tassos Haniotis • 20 April 2020 • Source: EC-DG AGRI based on FAOSTAT, Eurostat and World Bank.
- 2. Outline 1. Basic agricultural production data 2. Agricultural emissions and fertiliser use 3. Food balances 4. Agricultural prices 2
- 3. Cumulative change in basic agricultural facts 3 -18% 23% -20% 20% -26% 83% -2% 64% -14% 41% -9% 194% -35% 72% 5% 104% -28% 174% 45% 281% -47% 37% 87% 130% -29% 48% 17% 91% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% Farm area per capita Cereal yield Cattle herd Meat production Cumulative change in basic agricultural facts (2018/1990) EU-27 United States China India Brazil Africa World Source: DG AGRI based on FAOSTAT.
- 4. Global cereal and maize yields 4 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 Yields (mt/ha) Maize (EU) Maize (US) Maize (World) Source: DG AGRI based on FAOSTAT.
- 5. Global wheat and barley yields 5 0 2 4 6 8 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 Yields (mt/ha) Wheat (EU) Wheat (US) Wheat (World) Source: DG AGRI based on FAOSTAT.
- 6. Meat production (1990-2018) 6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 million MT Total meat production EU-28 United States China India Brazil Africa Oceania Source: DG AGRI based on FAOSTAT and Eurostat.
- 7. Beef production (1990-2018) 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 million MT Total beef production EU-28 United States China India Brazil Africa Oceania Source: DG AGRI based on FAOSTAT and Eurostat.
- 8. Pork production (1990-2018) 8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 million MT Total pork production EU-28 United States China India Brazil Africa Oceania Source: DG AGRI based on FAOSTAT and Eurostat.
- 9. Poultry production (1990-2018) 9 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 million MT Total poultry production EU-28 United States China India Brazil Africa Oceania Source: DG AGRI based on FAOSTAT and Eurostat.
- 10. Milk production (1990-2018) 10 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 million MT Total milk production EU-28 United States China India Brazil Africa Oceania Source: DG AGRI based on FAOSTAT and Eurostat.
- 11. Outline 1. Basic agricultural production 2. Agricultural emissions and fertiliser use 3. Food balances 4. Agricultural prices 11
- 12. GHG emissions from agriculture (2017/1990) Source: DG AGRI based on FAOSTAT. 12 -19% -21% -16% -9% 7% 1% 12% 14% 23% 6% 42% 52% 27% 14% 62% 124% 50% 38% 74% 549% 61% 67% 55% 95% 18% 12% 26% 41% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% GHG (CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous oxide (N2O) N2O from synthetic fertiliser Cumulative change in level of emissions from agriculture by source) EU-27 United States China India Brazil Africa World
- 13. Changes in farming intensity (2017/1990) -18% -29% -14% -26% -17% 12% -14% 2% 18% -35% -17% 28% -28% 8% 49% -47% -18% 54% -29% -17% 18% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Hectares per capita GHG emissions per capita GHG emissions per hectare Cumulative changes in farming intensity EU-27 United States China India Brazil Africa World Source: DG AGRI based on FAOSTAT.
- 14. Changes in fertiliser use (2017/2002) 0.5% -25% -23% 8% -0.1% 1% 17% 17% 114% 55% 62% 47% 94% 46% 58% 27% 39% 39% 24% 21% 42% -50% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% Nitrogen Phosphate Potash Cumulative change in fertiliser use per hectare EU-27 United States China India Brazil Africa World Source: DG AGRI based on FAOSTAT.
- 15. Global GHG emissions from agriculture (1990-2017) 15 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 mio GT CO2 eq Total GHG emissions from agriculture EU-28 United States China India Brazil ROW Source: DG AGRI based on FAOSTAT.
- 16. GHG emissions from agriculture – regions 16 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250 2500 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 mio GT CO2 eq GHG emissions from agriculture - Regions Europe Africa Asia Americas Oceania Source: DG AGRI based on FAOSTAT.
- 17. GHG emissions from agriculture – big-5 17 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 CO2eq mio GT GHG emissions from agriculture - Farming Big-5 EU-28 United States China India Brazil Source: DG AGRI based on FAOSTAT.
- 18. Methane (CH4) emissions from agriculture – big-5 18 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 mio GT CO2 eq GHG emissions from agriculture - Farming Big-5 EU United States China India Brazil
- 19. Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agriculture – big-5 19 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 mio GT CO2 eq N2O emissions from agriculture - Farming Big-5 EU-27 United States China India Brazil Source: DG AGRI based on FAOSTAT.
- 20. Outline 1. Basic agricultural production data 2. Agricultural emissions and fertiliser use 3. Food balances 4. Agricultural prices 20
- 21. Grain surplus/deficit gap - Big5 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1990 2018 1990 2018 1990 2018 1990 2018 1990 2018 EU USA China India Brazil mio MT Grain surplus/deficit (mio MT) Wheat Maize 21 Source: DG AGRI based on FAOSTAT.
- 22. Food surplus/deficit gap - Regions 22 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 1990 2018 1990 2018 1990 2018 1990 2018 1990 2018 Europe Africa Asia Americas Oceania mio MT Grain surplus/deficit (mio MT) Wheat Maize Source: DG AGRI based on FAOSTAT.
- 23. Livestock products surplus/deficit gap - Big5 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 1990 2018 1990 2018 1990 2018 1990 2018 1990 2018 EU USA China India Brazil mio MT Livestock products surplus/deficit (mio MT) Beef Pork Poultry Milk 23 Source: DG AGRI based on FAOSTAT.
- 24. Food surplus/deficit gap - Regions 24 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 1990 2018 1990 2018 1990 2018 1990 2018 1990 2018 Europe Africa Asia Americas Oceania mio MT Livestock products surplus/deficit (mio MT) Beef Pork Poultry Milk Source: DG AGRI based on FAOSTAT.
- 25. Outline 1. Basic agricultural production 2. Agricultural emissions and fertiliser use 3. Food balances 4. Agricultural prices 25
- 26. Commodity price developments (real price indices) Source: World Bank. 26 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Commodity price indices (2010=100) Agriculture Fertilizers Energy Metals & minerals
- 27. Grain prices Source: World Bank. 27 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 2005M01 2005M07 2006M01 2006M07 2007M01 2007M07 2008M01 2008M07 2009M01 2009M07 2010M01 2010M07 2011M01 2011M07 2012M01 2012M07 2013M01 2013M07 2014M01 2014M07 2015M01 2015M07 2016M01 2016M07 2017M01 2017M07 2018M01 2018M07 2019M01 2019M07 2020M01 Grain price indices (nominal, 2010=100) Wheat Barley Maize Rice
- 28. Non-grain prices Source: World Bank. 28 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2005M01 2005M07 2006M01 2006M07 2007M01 2007M07 2008M01 2008M07 2009M01 2009M07 2010M01 2010M07 2011M01 2011M07 2012M01 2012M07 2013M01 2013M07 2014M01 2014M07 2015M01 2015M07 2016M01 2016M07 2017M01 2017M07 2018M01 2018M07 2019M01 2019M07 2020M01 Non-grain price indices (nominal, 2010=100) Sugar Beef Chicken Soybeans
- 29. Nominal food prices, 2005-2020 29 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2005M01 2005M07 2006M01 2006M07 2007M01 2007M07 2008M01 2008M07 2009M01 2009M07 2010M01 2010M07 2011M01 2011M07 2012M01 2012M07 2013M01 2013M07 2014M01 2014M07 2015M01 2015M07 2016M01 2016M07 2017M01 2017M07 2018M01 2018M07 2019M01 2019M07 2020M01 Food price indices (nominal, 2010=100) Food Grains Oils Other Food Source: World Bank.
- 30. Nominal food and input prices, 2015-2020 30 Source: World Bank. 25 50 75 100 125 2015M01 2015M04 2015M07 2015M10 2016M01 2016M04 2016M07 2016M10 2017M01 2017M04 2017M07 2017M10 2018M01 2018M04 2018M07 2018M10 2019M01 2019M04 2019M07 2019M10 2020M01 Food price indices (nominal, 2010=100) Food Veg Oils Grains Other Food Energy Fertiliser