Sea level rise on the Hudson Estuary: Sacha Spector, PhD, director of conservation science, Scenic Hudson share impacts associated with sea level rise including SLAMM, Sea Level Rise Affecting Marshes Model.

1. SEA LEVEL RISE ON THE ESTUARY

2. THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY

3. WHAT IS SEA LEVEL?

4. WHAT IS SEA LEVEL?

5. MSL is defined as the zero
elevation for a local area.
MSL is usually described as a
surface that is the arithmetic mean
of hourly water elevations
observed over a specific 19-year
cycle.
This definition averages out tidal
highs and lows caused by the
changing effects of the
gravitational forces from the moon
and sun.
WHAT IS SEA LEVEL?

6. HOW DO WE TRACK SEA LEVEL?
TIDE GAUGES
SATELLITES
GEOLOGY

7. A RISING RIVER
‣ Hudson River is over
12” higher than a
century ago
‣ 21st Century SLR is
much more rapid and
seems to be
accelerating
1856-2010: 1.7mm/yr
1996-2013: 3.7mm/yr
rolling 5 year average
2000 - 2011: 6.76mm/yr
Hudson River Sea Level 1856-2013
(in mm, observed at Manhattan

8. What causes the sea level to change?

9. What causes the sea level to change?

10. What causes the sea level to change?

11. LAND-BASED ICE
CONTRIBUTION TO SEA LEVEL RISE

12. LAND-BASED ICE
CONTRIBUTION TO
SEA LEVEL RISE

14. What causes the sea level to change?

15. What causes the sea level to change?

16. What causes the sea level to change?

17. RELATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS TO SEA LEVEL RISE

18. SEA LEVEL RISE:

19. FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE

20. PREDICTING FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE
OCEAN WARMING
(THERMAL EXPANSION)
GLACIERS AND ICE CAPS
GREEENLAND
ANTARCTICA
TOTAL SEA LEVEL RISE
Levermann A et al. PNAS 2013;110:13745-13750
2.3m/degree C
4.2ft/ degree F

21. Text
PAST AND FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE
from Vermeer and Rahmstorf 2008

23. SEA LEVEL RISE PROJECTIONS
FOR HUDSON RIVER
Shown is the central range (middle 67%) of values from model-based probabilities rounded to the nearest inch.
2 The rapid ice melt scenario is based on acceleration of recent rates of ice melt in the Greenland and West
Antarctic Ice sheets and paleoclimate studies.

24. BIODIVERSITY WATERFRONTS INFRASTRUCTURE
SEA-LEVEL RISE
Resources at Risk

25. FLOODING

26. FLOODING

27. A NEW NORMAL
STORM SURGE EVENTS
‣ Number or frequency
of events: trend unclear
‣ Higher intensity events
‣ Greater frequency of
surge events in warmer
years

28. HURRICANE SANDY

29. 2011: Hurricane Irene
‣ 4.5FT STORM SURGE
2012: Hurricane Sandy
‣ 6.25FT STORM SURGE
A NEW NORMAL
STORM SURGE EVENTS

30. COASTAL HAZARD:
Coastal Inundation

31. ACCELERATING COASTAL
RISKS
.2
3
.2
3 .2
3
.2
3
.2
3
adapted from Climate Central
‣ elevated
coastal storm
heights and
impacts
2100
sealevelrise

32. 6”
12”
18”
24”
30”
36”
42”
48”
54”
100yr
500yr
MODELING SEA-LEVEL RISE
ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER
ESTUARY
‣ 9300+ acres inundated
by 2100
‣ 11,000+ acres at risk of
greater flooding
frequency/depth

33. SEA-LEVEL RISE IN
THE HUDSON RIVER
ESTUARY
Tools
‣ Sea Level Rise
Mapper
www.scenichudson.org/slr
Sea Level Rise Mapper
Sea level rise is accelerating along the Hudson River,
promising to transform riverfront communities and the
ecology of the Estuary. This site provides tools and resources
for communities to plan for a more resilient future.
About Sea Level Rise
News
Mapping
Waterfront Forums
Task Forces
Kingston
Resources
Legal Tools
Smart Growth
Principles
Science Sources
Case Studies
SEA LEVEL RISE

34. SEA-LEVEL RISE IN THE
HUDSON RIVER
ESTUARY
Tools
‣ Inundation Zones
‣ FEMA Flood Zones
‣ Census Information
‣ Tidal Wetlands &
SAV
‣ Municipal Assets
‣ Brownfields and
HazMat sites
‣ Community
Summaries
Sea Level Rise Mapper
Sea level rise is accelerating along the Hudson River,
promising to transform riverfront communities and the
ecology of the Estuary. This site provides tools and resources
for communities to plan for a more resilient future.
About Sea Level Rise
News
Mapping
Waterfront Forums
Task Forces
Kingston
Resources
Legal Tools
Smart Growth
Principles
Science Sources
Case Studies
SEA LEVEL RISE

35. FUTURE INUNDATION AREAS

36. DATA LAYERS

37. DATA LAYERS

38. COMMUNITY SUMMARIES

39. PEOPLE AT RISK
At Risk From Flooding At Risk From Flooding
HOUSEHOLDS
Inundation
Flooding
PEOPLE
Inundation
Flooding
3,654
11,929
6,911
22,221

40. ASSETS AT RISK
72” of SLR
RAIL LINES
102 miles
401 miles
inundation
flooding

41. ASSETS AT RISK
72” of SLR
RAIL LINES
102 miles
401 miles
BROWNFIELDS & HAZMATS
51 sites
195 sites
inundation
flooding

42. ASSETS AT RISK
72” of SLR
RAIL LINES
102 miles
401 miles
BROWNFIELDS & HAZMATS
51 sites
195 sites
TREATMENT PLANTS
3 plants
11 plants
inundation
flooding

43. VULNERABLE INFRASTRUCTURE
Wastewater Treatment Plants

44. VULNERABLE INFRASTRUCTURE
Wastewater Treatment Plants

45. TIDAL WETLANDS OF THE HUDSON

46. THE RETURN OF HUDSON RIVER ISLANDS

47. THE FUTURE OF TIDAL HABITATS
5,000 years ago Today
sediment and peat
formation
Future
wetland migration
potential where there is
vacant land
complete wetland loss
where shoreline is
hardened

48. 200720202040206020802100
Transitional Scrub-Shrub Tidal Swamp
Irreg.-Flooded Marsh Regularly-Flooded Marsh
Vegetated Tidal Flat Tidal Flat
Developed Upland
Undeveloped Upland
Upland Wetland

49. 200720202040206020802100
Transitional Scrub-Shrub Tidal Swamp
Irreg.-Flooded Marsh Regularly-Flooded Marsh
Vegetated Tidal Flat Tidal Flat
Developed Upland
Undeveloped Upland
Upland Wetland

50. GET AHEAD OF THE CURVE
‣ How can we reduce risks
to people, property and
nature?
‣ What should our goals be
for addressing climate
change?
“Skate to where the puck is
going to be...” - Wayne
Gretsky
“Manage the unavoidable,
and avoid the
unmanageable”
- Rip Rapson

51. RESOURCES
‣ SCENIC HUDSON
www.scenichudson.org/slr
‣ CLIMATE CENTRAL
www.sealevel.climatecentral.or
g
‣ US GLOBAL CHANGE
RESEARCH PROGRAM
www.globalchange.gov/browse
/educators
‣ HUDSON RIVER
ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS OBSERVING
SYSTEM
www.hrecos.org