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STOCK RECOMMENDATION FOR HAYLEY LARGE CAP FUND
PREPARED BY THAO PHUONG LE, VILLANOVA MSF’16
SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS, INC.
Company Overview
Stock Analysis
Target Price
Summary
2
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
3
Company Overview
• Founded in 1962
• Provide analog & mixed signal semiconductors
• Include a portfolio of a wide range of products
• Over 1,800 worldwide patents
• One of the world’s largest RF suppliers to the
smartphone industry
• Went public in 1990 as NASDAQ:SWKS
• IWF Score of 49
4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
10/22/10 10/22/11 10/22/12 10/22/13 10/22/14
Price
Year
Historical Price of SWKS
Price
Customers
5
Foxconn
34%
Samsung
10%
Other
56%
Revenue by Customers in 2014
Foxconn Samsung Other
• Key customers: Foxconn, Samsung, Cisco,
Dell, Fujitsu, GE, Google, HTC, Huawei, Lenovo,
LG, Microsoft, etc.
• Through Foxconn: main RF supplier for Apple
Apple &
Skyworks
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
10/15/10 10/15/11 10/15/12 10/15/13 10/15/14 10/15/15
5y Price Comparison between AAPL & SWKS
Skyworks Apple
6
Stock Analysis
Quality
Growth
Momentum
Valuation
7
Business Quality
• Strategic relationship with both Samsung &
Apple
• Quality of products
• Diversified portfolio
• Sustainable energy plans
8
Quality Growth Momentum Valuation
Management Quality
• Award winning management
• CEO: David Aldrich-12 years:
• 1,245% stock growth
• One of America’s best managed companies in 2014
• CTO: Dr. Peter L. Gammel
• 20 years experience in new product & funding development
• About 50 patents filings & more than 200 publications
9
Quality Growth Momentum Valuation
Industry Analysis: Porter’s Five Forces
Force Strength Analysis
Threat of New Entrants High • High capital requirement
• High economies of scale
Power of Suppliers Low • Lots of suppliers
• Low switching costs
Power of Buyers Low • Threat of backward integration
• Dominated by small large players
Availability of Substitutes Medium • Intellectual property rights
• “Copy cat”
Rivalry Medium • Pressure to develop new technology
• High exit barriers
• Few major players
10
Quality Growth Momentum Valuation
Industry Analysis: Demand Drivers
Gaming
20hrs-1.2GB
Music
Streaming
10hrs-1.7GB
Std. Def
Video
10hrs-2.6GB
High Def
Video
10hrs-10GB
4k Video
10hrs-30GB
11
Quality Growth Momentum Valuation
Cloud computing:
Significant & Growing
contributor to data
demand
Souce: U.S Cellulars, 4G Americas
Mean usage in North America per month
Industry
Analysis:
Demand Drivers
• Early stage of mobile payments
• Increasing growth for e-commerce
• Higher demand for businesses to connect with customers
through mobile
• New market opportunities: Connected Home & Automotive
Apps
12
Quality Growth Momentum Valuation
Financial Quality: Profitability
13
Quality Growth Momentum Valuation
-7.74
17.19
-11.59
19.76
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201 2014
SWKS’s ROA & ROE from 2005-2014
Return on Assets Return on Equity
38.54
41.14
43.50
36.00
37.00
38.00
39.00
40.00
41.00
42.00
43.00
44.00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201 2014
Gross Margin
Financial Quality: Profitability <cont’>
14
24.21%
20.03%
5.93%
34.71%
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
Skyworks Analog Devices Avago Technologies Linear Technology
Corp.
Comparable ROIC in FY2014
120.93%
84.06%
45.10%
98.64%
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
Skyworks Analog Devices Avago Technologies Linear Technology
Corp.
Comparable Sales/IC in FY2014
Quality Growth Momentum Valuation
Historical Growth
0.75
1.2 1.12
1.47
2.4
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Sep'10 Sep'11 Sep'12 Sep'13 Sep'14
EPS
EPS Expon. (EPS)
15
Quality Growth Momentum Valuation
33.55%
10.55%
27.87%
20.92%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sales Growth for the past 5 years
Sales Growth Average
Future Growth
1.07
1.42
1.57
1.79
2.29
2.93
3.75
4.68
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Forecasted Sales
• 26.9% average sales growth for the next
3 years
• Consistent with management’s
expectation & Bloomberg & FactSet
forecasts
16
Quality Growth Momentum Valuation
Price Momentum: Relative to IT Industry
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
10/31/05 10/31/06 10/31/07 10/31/08 10/31/09 10/31/10 10/31/11 10/31/12 10/31/13 10/31/14
(INDEX) Skyworks (INDEX) SP5IT
17
Quality Growth Momentum Valuation
Price Mometum: Relative to Competitors
18
Quality Growth Momentum Valuation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
SWKS ADI AVGO
Earnings Momentum
19
Quality Growth Momentum Valuation
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
Q4
'10
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Q1
'15
Q2
'15
Q3
'15
Actual Mean
Valuation: DCF Model
20
Quality Growth Momentum Valuation
FCF
Audited Audited Audited Audited Audited Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024
Free Cash Flow 98.6 172.2 270.2 208.6 200.5 244.3 267.6 539.7 786.2 950.1 1,082.1 1,672.5 1,772.8 1,861.5
Terminal Value 37,043.3
PV of FCFF 2,747.5
PV of Terminal Value 16,881.2
Inputs Share Price
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00% Terminal Growth Rate
WACC 8.18%
WACC
102.36 2.25% 2.50% 2.75% 3.00% 3.25% 3.50% 3.75%
6.68% $131.91 $139.02 $147.04 $156.15 $166.59 $178.67 $192.82
Enterprise Vaue 7.18% $115.34 $120.81 $126.90 $133.72 $141.41 $150.14 $160.15
Operating Value 19,628.74 7.68% $101.99 $106.29 $111.03 $116.28 $122.12 $128.66 $136.03
Plus: Non-operating Assets 771.87 8.18% $91.02 $94.47 $98.23 $102.36 $106.91 $111.94 $117.54
Enterprise Value 20,400.61 8.68% $81.88 $84.69 $87.73 $91.03 $94.64 $98.60 $102.96
Less: Debt & Equivalents (143.6) 9.18% $74.17 $76.48 $78.97 $81.66 $84.57 $87.74 $91.21
Equity Value 20,256.97 9.68% $67.59 $69.51 $71.57 $73.79 $76.18 $78.76 $81.55
Basic Shares Outstanding 197.90
Share Price $102.36
Valuation: PEG
0.6 0.6
2.9
1.8
2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
SWKS AVGO LLTC ADI MXIM
PEG
SWKS AVGO LLTC ADI MXIM
21
Quality Growth Momentum Valuation
Valuation: Relative Multiple
22
Quality Growth Momentum Valuation
Comparable Company Multiple Analysis
Enterprise Value EBIT EV/EBIT
Analog Devices 16,653 829.6 20.07
Avago Technologies 33,945 635.0 53.46
Linear Technology Corp. 9,554 682.7 13.99
Mean 29.17
Median 20.07
FCF
Audited Audited Audited Audited Audited Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024
Free Cash Flow 98.6 172.2) 270.2 208.6 200.5 244.3 267.6 539.7 786.2 950.1 1,082.1 1,672.5 1,772.8 1,861.5
Terminal Value 45,335.15
PV of FCFF 5,361.69
PV of Terminal Value 20,659.96
Inputs Share Price
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00% Terminal Growth Rate
WACC 8.1759099% WACC $134.66 2.25% 2.50% 2.75% 3.00% 3.25% 3.50% 3.75%
6.68% $152.18 $152.47 $152.77 $153.06 $153.35 $153.64 $153.93
Enterprise Vaue 7.18% $145.78 $146.06 $146.34 $146.62 $146.90 $147.17 $147.45
Operating Value 26,021.65 7.68% $139.70 $139.96 $140.23 $140.49 $140.76 $141.02 $141.29
Plus: Non-operating Assets 771.87 8.18% $133.90 $134.16 $134.41 $134.66 $134.92 $135.17 $135.42
Enterprise Value 26,793.52 8.68% $128.39 $128.63 $128.87 $129.11 $129.36 $129.60 $129.84
Less: Debt & Equivalents (143.6) 9.18% $123.14 $123.37 $123.60 $123.83 $124.06 $124.29 $124.52
Equity Value 26,649.88 9.68% $118.14 $118.36 $118.58 $118.80 $119.02 $119.24 $119.46
Basic Shares Outstanding 197.90
Share Price $134.66
Target Price: $102.36 vs. Current price: $78.29
Consensus Rating 4.54
Buys 83.3% 20
Holds 12.5% 3
Sells 4.2% 1
12M Target Price $116.40
23
Source: Bloomberg
Source: FactSet
Summary
• Rising RF content
• Good financial quality with robust revenue growth,
growing ROE, expanding profit margin & strategic
plan to diversify products
• Recommendation: BUY with target price: $102.35
Investment Risks:
• Operational risk
• Dependent on Apple
• Economic risk
• Another recession
24
Thank you!
STOCK RECOMMENDATION FOR HAYLEY LARGE CAP FUND
PREPARED BY THAO PHUONG LE, VILLANOVA MSF’16
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Skyworks

  • 1. STOCK RECOMMENDATION FOR HAYLEY LARGE CAP FUND PREPARED BY THAO PHUONG LE, VILLANOVA MSF’16
  • 2. SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS, INC. Company Overview Stock Analysis Target Price Summary 2
  • 4. Company Overview • Founded in 1962 • Provide analog & mixed signal semiconductors • Include a portfolio of a wide range of products • Over 1,800 worldwide patents • One of the world’s largest RF suppliers to the smartphone industry • Went public in 1990 as NASDAQ:SWKS • IWF Score of 49 4 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 10/22/10 10/22/11 10/22/12 10/22/13 10/22/14 Price Year Historical Price of SWKS Price
  • 5. Customers 5 Foxconn 34% Samsung 10% Other 56% Revenue by Customers in 2014 Foxconn Samsung Other • Key customers: Foxconn, Samsung, Cisco, Dell, Fujitsu, GE, Google, HTC, Huawei, Lenovo, LG, Microsoft, etc. • Through Foxconn: main RF supplier for Apple
  • 6. Apple & Skyworks 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 10/15/10 10/15/11 10/15/12 10/15/13 10/15/14 10/15/15 5y Price Comparison between AAPL & SWKS Skyworks Apple 6
  • 8. Business Quality • Strategic relationship with both Samsung & Apple • Quality of products • Diversified portfolio • Sustainable energy plans 8 Quality Growth Momentum Valuation
  • 9. Management Quality • Award winning management • CEO: David Aldrich-12 years: • 1,245% stock growth • One of America’s best managed companies in 2014 • CTO: Dr. Peter L. Gammel • 20 years experience in new product & funding development • About 50 patents filings & more than 200 publications 9 Quality Growth Momentum Valuation
  • 10. Industry Analysis: Porter’s Five Forces Force Strength Analysis Threat of New Entrants High • High capital requirement • High economies of scale Power of Suppliers Low • Lots of suppliers • Low switching costs Power of Buyers Low • Threat of backward integration • Dominated by small large players Availability of Substitutes Medium • Intellectual property rights • “Copy cat” Rivalry Medium • Pressure to develop new technology • High exit barriers • Few major players 10 Quality Growth Momentum Valuation
  • 11. Industry Analysis: Demand Drivers Gaming 20hrs-1.2GB Music Streaming 10hrs-1.7GB Std. Def Video 10hrs-2.6GB High Def Video 10hrs-10GB 4k Video 10hrs-30GB 11 Quality Growth Momentum Valuation Cloud computing: Significant & Growing contributor to data demand Souce: U.S Cellulars, 4G Americas Mean usage in North America per month
  • 12. Industry Analysis: Demand Drivers • Early stage of mobile payments • Increasing growth for e-commerce • Higher demand for businesses to connect with customers through mobile • New market opportunities: Connected Home & Automotive Apps 12 Quality Growth Momentum Valuation
  • 13. Financial Quality: Profitability 13 Quality Growth Momentum Valuation -7.74 17.19 -11.59 19.76 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201 2014 SWKS’s ROA & ROE from 2005-2014 Return on Assets Return on Equity 38.54 41.14 43.50 36.00 37.00 38.00 39.00 40.00 41.00 42.00 43.00 44.00 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201 2014 Gross Margin
  • 14. Financial Quality: Profitability <cont’> 14 24.21% 20.03% 5.93% 34.71% 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 Skyworks Analog Devices Avago Technologies Linear Technology Corp. Comparable ROIC in FY2014 120.93% 84.06% 45.10% 98.64% 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 Skyworks Analog Devices Avago Technologies Linear Technology Corp. Comparable Sales/IC in FY2014 Quality Growth Momentum Valuation
  • 15. Historical Growth 0.75 1.2 1.12 1.47 2.4 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Sep'10 Sep'11 Sep'12 Sep'13 Sep'14 EPS EPS Expon. (EPS) 15 Quality Growth Momentum Valuation 33.55% 10.55% 27.87% 20.92% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sales Growth for the past 5 years Sales Growth Average
  • 16. Future Growth 1.07 1.42 1.57 1.79 2.29 2.93 3.75 4.68 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Forecasted Sales • 26.9% average sales growth for the next 3 years • Consistent with management’s expectation & Bloomberg & FactSet forecasts 16 Quality Growth Momentum Valuation
  • 17. Price Momentum: Relative to IT Industry 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 10/31/05 10/31/06 10/31/07 10/31/08 10/31/09 10/31/10 10/31/11 10/31/12 10/31/13 10/31/14 (INDEX) Skyworks (INDEX) SP5IT 17 Quality Growth Momentum Valuation
  • 18. Price Mometum: Relative to Competitors 18 Quality Growth Momentum Valuation 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 SWKS ADI AVGO
  • 19. Earnings Momentum 19 Quality Growth Momentum Valuation 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 Q4 '10 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Actual Mean
  • 20. Valuation: DCF Model 20 Quality Growth Momentum Valuation FCF Audited Audited Audited Audited Audited Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 Free Cash Flow 98.6 172.2 270.2 208.6 200.5 244.3 267.6 539.7 786.2 950.1 1,082.1 1,672.5 1,772.8 1,861.5 Terminal Value 37,043.3 PV of FCFF 2,747.5 PV of Terminal Value 16,881.2 Inputs Share Price Terminal Growth Rate 3.00% Terminal Growth Rate WACC 8.18% WACC 102.36 2.25% 2.50% 2.75% 3.00% 3.25% 3.50% 3.75% 6.68% $131.91 $139.02 $147.04 $156.15 $166.59 $178.67 $192.82 Enterprise Vaue 7.18% $115.34 $120.81 $126.90 $133.72 $141.41 $150.14 $160.15 Operating Value 19,628.74 7.68% $101.99 $106.29 $111.03 $116.28 $122.12 $128.66 $136.03 Plus: Non-operating Assets 771.87 8.18% $91.02 $94.47 $98.23 $102.36 $106.91 $111.94 $117.54 Enterprise Value 20,400.61 8.68% $81.88 $84.69 $87.73 $91.03 $94.64 $98.60 $102.96 Less: Debt & Equivalents (143.6) 9.18% $74.17 $76.48 $78.97 $81.66 $84.57 $87.74 $91.21 Equity Value 20,256.97 9.68% $67.59 $69.51 $71.57 $73.79 $76.18 $78.76 $81.55 Basic Shares Outstanding 197.90 Share Price $102.36
  • 21. Valuation: PEG 0.6 0.6 2.9 1.8 2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 SWKS AVGO LLTC ADI MXIM PEG SWKS AVGO LLTC ADI MXIM 21 Quality Growth Momentum Valuation
  • 22. Valuation: Relative Multiple 22 Quality Growth Momentum Valuation Comparable Company Multiple Analysis Enterprise Value EBIT EV/EBIT Analog Devices 16,653 829.6 20.07 Avago Technologies 33,945 635.0 53.46 Linear Technology Corp. 9,554 682.7 13.99 Mean 29.17 Median 20.07 FCF Audited Audited Audited Audited Audited Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 Free Cash Flow 98.6 172.2) 270.2 208.6 200.5 244.3 267.6 539.7 786.2 950.1 1,082.1 1,672.5 1,772.8 1,861.5 Terminal Value 45,335.15 PV of FCFF 5,361.69 PV of Terminal Value 20,659.96 Inputs Share Price Terminal Growth Rate 3.00% Terminal Growth Rate WACC 8.1759099% WACC $134.66 2.25% 2.50% 2.75% 3.00% 3.25% 3.50% 3.75% 6.68% $152.18 $152.47 $152.77 $153.06 $153.35 $153.64 $153.93 Enterprise Vaue 7.18% $145.78 $146.06 $146.34 $146.62 $146.90 $147.17 $147.45 Operating Value 26,021.65 7.68% $139.70 $139.96 $140.23 $140.49 $140.76 $141.02 $141.29 Plus: Non-operating Assets 771.87 8.18% $133.90 $134.16 $134.41 $134.66 $134.92 $135.17 $135.42 Enterprise Value 26,793.52 8.68% $128.39 $128.63 $128.87 $129.11 $129.36 $129.60 $129.84 Less: Debt & Equivalents (143.6) 9.18% $123.14 $123.37 $123.60 $123.83 $124.06 $124.29 $124.52 Equity Value 26,649.88 9.68% $118.14 $118.36 $118.58 $118.80 $119.02 $119.24 $119.46 Basic Shares Outstanding 197.90 Share Price $134.66
  • 23. Target Price: $102.36 vs. Current price: $78.29 Consensus Rating 4.54 Buys 83.3% 20 Holds 12.5% 3 Sells 4.2% 1 12M Target Price $116.40 23 Source: Bloomberg Source: FactSet
  • 24. Summary • Rising RF content • Good financial quality with robust revenue growth, growing ROE, expanding profit margin & strategic plan to diversify products • Recommendation: BUY with target price: $102.35 Investment Risks: • Operational risk • Dependent on Apple • Economic risk • Another recession 24
  • 25. Thank you! STOCK RECOMMENDATION FOR HAYLEY LARGE CAP FUND PREPARED BY THAO PHUONG LE, VILLANOVA MSF’16 Q&A

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. BiFET: Bipolar Field Effect Transistor, CMOS: complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor-intergrating circuits
  2. Leverage: Semiconductors businesses have debt-free model: fund itself through cash surpluses accumulated during booms With gratuitous debt: no benefit for the companies in terms of new facilities or extra capabilities, but impose as a huge additional burden and a massive extra cost of doing business