- Market analysis of edible oils and oilseeds is valuable for companies and can yield large returns, but requires continuous investment in data collection and integration of findings into decision making.
- BMD CPO futures prices in Malaysia are forecast to decline to MYR 2050 by November 2018 before recovering to MYR 2450-2500 by mid-2019.
- India's current account deficit is expected to be in line with prior forecasts near $90 billion for FY2018-19 due to stable capital inflows, while the primary balance will remain in negative territory.
2. Market analysis …an important function TRADE
Thank you Teflas, SEA, senior industry veterans, our client Gods for the
award and your kind support, patronage.
My heartfelt thanks to Dorab sir, Siva kumar sir, Atul sir, Sood sir, Dr.
James Fry.
• Market analysis is like investing in a diamond, you can get it
from few a thousand dollars to a million dollars.
• Market analysis is a data, processes, domain, knowledge
intensive exercise.
• Companies should continuously invest in it.
• More important is the process that will integrate the
outcomes of the analysis into decision making.
• One can make HUGE means huge money by investing in
Analysis| Risk management | Technology
• Cargill at global level is the classic example.
3. BMD CPO 3M Futures prices are likely to extend
its weakness to place a significant bottom
around MYR 2050 by Nov’18, and recover
higher for the medium-term towards MYR
2450/2500 in the coming 4 to 6 months.
Prices posted a significant low just under MYR
2000 and bounced upwards during the past 2
months to trade above MYR 2300 as of last week,
mostly in line with our forecast.
What’s on the call for coming months ?
2018 GLOBOIL MUMBAI FORECAST ACTUAL PRICE MOVEMENT
Review of Prior Price Forecast: BMD CPO 3M Futures
?
3
4. • CAD for FY 18-19 is likely to be in line with the previous forecast – Markets feared significantly higher
CAD (as much as USD 90 billion)
• With primary balance expected to be in negative, FII flows dictated the market dynamics.
2018 Mumbai Globoil: CAD forecast vs Price deviation 4
5. DUTY HIKE
SURCHARGE
HIKE
3% TO10%
EFFECTIVE
SBO – 33%
SFO– 27.5%
DUTY HIKE
EFFECTIVE
CRUDE – 38.5%
REFINED – 49.5%
CSBO 17.5% TO30% CRUDE 35%
REFINED 45%CSFO 12.5% TO 25%
DUTY HIKE
SURCHARGE
HIKE
3% TO10%
DUTY HIKE SOFT OILS DUTY HIKE
EFFECTIVE PALM OIL DUTY
CPO – 49.4%
RBD – 59.4%
DUTY REDUCTION
CPO 15% TO 30% 30% TO 44% TO 40%
RBD 25% TO 40% 40% TO 54% TO 45% AND 50%
• Nov’17 to jan’18 – Palm oil imports increased and soft oil imports dropped after “Nov’17 veg-oil duty hike”.
• After Mar’18 hike on palm oil import duty, imports of palm oils almost halved till Jun’18 and soft oil imports jumped.
• Palm oil imports rose sharply after “Jun’18 soft oils duty hike” and soft oil imports shrunk significantly till Dec’18.
• By Dec’18, total veg-oil port stocks have dropped to lowest in 9 months due to steady decline in soft oil imports.
• After Dec’18 duty reduction, imports of palm oil are expected to improve through JFM’19 by almost 26% Q-o-Q. Healthy import
parity and demand to replenish port stocks would attract imports of soft oils through JFM’19.
India Veg-oil Policy Shifts – Trade Impact 5
597
560
608
673
546
591
557
332 305
364
650 665
610
568
670
750
147 147
107
151
202
163
209
158 177 180
259 245
137 109 131
170
PALM OIL IMPORTS IN KMT
CPO RBD
220
274
79
225
134
115
264
397
289
352
312
341
264
204
85
315
129
194
237
171
212 210
295
331
221
139
208
150 157 166
236
300
SOFT OILS IMPORTS IN KMT
SOY SUN
6. CPO Stays Competitive Among The Rival Oils 6
• At India – Kandla, the landed cost of imported CPO continues to be at
significant discount below the landed cost of rival soft oils (INR 17000 –
18000/T) as CIF prices of the soft oils maintain wide spreads with CNF price of
palm oil, allowing palm oil advantage over its rivals.
• At EU - Rotterdam, spread between CPO and its rival oils has been well above
the one year average through most of OND’18, allowing palm oil to maintain
its sheen among the imported veg oils.
185
157
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
CNF Sun-CPO @ Rotterdam
1-Year Avg.
306
249
0
100
200
300
400
500
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
CNF Rape-CPO @ Rotterdam
1-Year Avg.
146.5137
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
CNF Soy-CPO @ Rotterdam
1-Year Avg.
220
151
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
India CIF Soy-CPO ($/T)
1-Year Avg.
193
179
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
India CIF Sun-CPO ($/T)
1-Year Avg.
7. Improving Margins – Sign Of Healthy Consumption 7
• Biodiesel margins have improved marginally through Jan’19 after diving southwards through Nov-Dec’18 period on sharply
lower energy prices. Improvement of biodiesel margins would boost industrial consumption going forward.
• Refining margins have been steady across key origins and at EU, where as policy shifts at end of last year triggered margin drop
at India through Jan’19. With smaller duty-differential than earlier, refined products demand could potentially capture part of
crude oil import demand.
-302.2
-24.9
-418.9
-95.3
19.3
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
Biodiesel Margin at origins & destinations (USD/Ton)
FAME-ARA PME Indonesia PME FOB Malaysia
RME-ARA SME-US RME-Germany
31.22
19.38
54.82
-0.42
-18.49
-80.00
-60.00
-40.00
-20.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
CPO refine margin at origin & destinations (USD/Ton)
Malaysia Indonesia EU India local India imported
ARA – Amsterdam Rotterdam Antwerp
9. Weakening of Global Expansion: EU
• IMF had revised down the 2019 global growth forecasts weighed down by slowdown
in Euro Area and China
• Downside revision to the global growth forecasts due to US – China trade war and
Brexit uncertainty shall continue to keep the markets risk averse
9
2.0
1.8 1.9
1.6
Oct'18 Jan'19 Oct'18 Jan'19
2018 2019
IMF Forecasts for Euro Area Growth
7.3 7.3
7.4
7.5
Oct'18 Jan'19 Oct'18 Jan'19
2018 2019
IMF Forecasts for India Growth
World Economic Outlook
Region
TG Forecast IMF forecast GDP USD Bln
2017 2018e 2019f 2018e 2019f 2018
2019
Growth
World 3.74 3.63 3.47 3.7 3.5 87725 3044
Advanced economies 2.34 2.35 2.05 2.3 2.0 50231 1030
Emerging markets 4.72 4.68 4.70 4.6 4.5 33521 1576
US 2.22 2.80 2.32 2.9 2.5 17834 414
Euro Area 2.53 1.90 1.76 1.8 1.6 14018 247
Japan 1.74 1.10 0.80 0.9 1.1 6227 50
China 6.86 6.59 6.28 6.6 6.2 10773 677
India 6.68 7.47 7.62 7.3 7.5 2778 212
Note: All data in % Change Y/Y, India GDP in FY terms
As % of India’s growth
contribution (7%) increases,
companies have to evolve
and align to global
practices.
10. • Growth slowdown in US with the unwinding of fiscal
stimulus and also as the federal funds rate temporarily
overshoots the neutral rate of interest
• Domestic demand remains strong keeping the growth
better compared to Euro Area
• Weak domestic demand and higher borrowing costs
(sovereign yields remain elevated due to fiscal deficit
issues) in Italy
• Negative impact of street protests and downbeat
industrial activity has dampened France growth
FED turning dovish amid growth slowdown ECB remains ultra dovish as growth fizzled out
Central banks to be accommodative to arrest slowdown 10
1.90
2.00
2.10
2.40 2.40
2.50
2.30
2.90
2.70 2.70
2.90
3.10 3.10
2.90
Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18
FOMC Projections
GDP Fed Funds Rate
1.70 1.70
1.90 1.90 1.90
1.80
1.70
0.00
-0.10 -0.10 -0.10
-0.20 -0.20
-0.30
Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18
ECB Projections
GDP 3 Month Euribor
Current 3m Euribor rate is -0.3%Current effective fed funds rate is 2.4%
11. Global crude oil market to shift back into surplus
• Production decline in Iran (3 MBpd from 3.8 MBpd) and Venezuela (1.2 MBpd
from 1.7 MBpd) is more than offset by the increase in US (11.9 MBpd from 10
MBpd)
• As part of their long term plan of energy independence (pullout of armies from
middle east), US production will continue to rise due to higher drilled but
uncompleted wells (less costs to bring oil)
11
96.40
96.69
97.48
98.91
100.38
94.95
96.13
97.85
98.95
100.10
1.45
0.56
-0.37
-0.04
0.27
2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019p
Global Oil SnD
Total supply (MBpd) Total demand (MBpd) Supply-Demand gap
10.31
4.51
3.07
2.72
1.69
1.48
1.03
10.06
4.35
2.87
2.71
1.63
1.67
1.04
Saudi
Iraq
UAE
Kuwait
Nigeria
Angola
Algeria
OPEC Production Targets
2017 2019
0
1
2
3
4
5
JFM-15
AMJ-15
JAS-15
OND-15
JFM-16
AMJ-16
JAS-16
OND-16
JFM-17
AMJ-17
JAS-17
OND-17
JFM-18
AMJ-18
JAS-18
OND-18
Crude Oil Production Trends
Iran (MBpd) Venezuela (MBpd)
0
1
2
3
4
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Production at US shale fields
(MBpd)
Bakken Eagle Ford Permian
12. ICE Brent Crude Oil Futures prices are likely to hold above USD 56.00 before forming
a new high at USD 67.00/70 during JFM’19 and eventually turn negative towards USD
48.00 during AMJ’19. Subsequently a recovery phase would be seen with prices
restoring the levels above USD 60 and higher in the long term.
Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast 12
Price range
Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019
56.00 TO 67.00 48.00 TO 64.00
13. Improvement in current account but primary deficit persists
• Following the sharp fall in crude oil prices, current account prospects have improved
• However, capital account continued to remained pressured by the FII outflows (till
date outflows USD 13.5 billion)
13
India Balance of Payments (usdbln)
Item 2014 – 15 2015 – 16 2016 – 17 2017 – 2018 2018 – 2019p 2019 – 2020p
Current Account
Merchandise trade balance -144.18 -130.08 -112.44 -160.04 -190.00 -175.00
Invisibles 116.24 107.93 97.15 111.32 125.00 130.00
Total Current Account -27.94 -22.15 -15.30 -48.71 -65.00 -45.00
GDP 2039 2103 2276 2599 2660 2890
CAD as % GDP -1.4% -1.1% -0.7% -1.9% -2.4% -1.6%
Capital Account
FDI 32.63 36.02 35.61 30.29 35.20 38.00
FPI 40.93 -4.13 7.61 22.11 -10.50 8.00
Others* 16.40 9.24 -6.74 38.99 29.20 14.30
Total Capital Account 89.96 41.13 36.48 91.39 53.90 60.30
Balance of Payments 61.41 17.90 21.55 43.57 -10.80 15.50
Primary Balance 4.69 13.87 20.32 -18.43 -28.80 -7.00
10.19
54.41
-30.00
10.00
2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 p 2019-20 p
Change in Forex Reserves (usd bln)
86.80
109.16
135.00
115.00
47.6 56.4 68.3 58.5
2016-17 2017-18 2018-19p 2019-20p
India Petroleum Import
Petroleum and Products Import (USD Bln)
Crude Import Basket Price (USD/Bbl)
60.2 61.0 62.1
18.0 21.5 17.4
6.6 9.1 9.5
35.6 30.3 35.2
2016-17 2017-18 2018-19p
India FDI Flows (USD Bln)
Gross Inflows Repatriation
FDI by India Net
14. India - Budget boost to consumer spending; Deficit a concern
• Direct benefit scheme for small and marginal farmers will put an estimated INR 75,000 crore in the system,
thereby boosting consumption and reviving the rural economy.
• Further, income tax sops for salaries people would add another INR 18,000 crore to the disposable income levels
and boost consumer spending.
• However, given the recent trends in revenue receipts, the FY20 numbers still looks slightly aggressive and
deviation in fiscal consolidation path may weigh on bond markets.
Attribute 2017-18 Actuals 2018-19 BE 2018-19 RE 2019-20 BE
1. Total Receipts 21.42 24.42 24.57 27.84
1.1 Revenue Receipts 14.35 17.26 17.30 19.78
1.1.1 Tax Revenue (Net to Centre) 12.42 14.81 14.84 17.05
1.1.2 Non Tax Revenue 1.93 2.45 2.45 2.73
1.2 Capital Receipts 7.07 7.16 7.28 8.07
1.2.1 Recovery of Loans 0.16 0.12 0.13 0.13
1.2.2 Other Receipts 1.00 0.80 0.80 0.90
1.2.3 Borrowings and Other Liabilities 5.91 6.24 6.34 7.04
2. Total Expenditure 21.42 24.42 24.57 27.84
2.1 On Revenue Account 18.79 21.42 21.41 24.48
2.2 On Capital Account 2.63 3.00 3.17 3.36
3. Revenue Deficit (2.1-1.1) 4.44 4.16 4.11 4.70
4. Fiscal Deficit (2-1.1-1.2.1-1.2.2) 5.91 6.24 6.34 7.04
GDP 167.73 187.22 188.41 210.07
Revenue Deficit as % of GDP 2.6% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
Fiscal Deficit as % of GDP 3.5% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4%
Source: Union Budget, All units in lakh crore unless mentioned otherwise
14
5.71
4.31
6.71
5.29
7.60
6.20
Corporation Tax Personal Income Tax
Direct Tax Collections (INR Lakh
Crore)
2017-18 Actuals 2018-19 RE 2019-20 BE
4.43
6.44
7.61
2017-18 Actuals 2018-19 RE 2019-20 BE
GST Collections Net to Centre (INR
Lakh Crore)
5.91
6.34
7.043.5%
3.4% 3.4%
2017-18 Actuals 2018-19 RE 2019-20 BE
Fiscal Deficit
Fiscal Deficit (INR Lakh Crore)
Fiscal Deficit as % of GDP
15. • Strong demand (liquidity tightness due
to IL&FS) and relaxation of liquidity
norms to NBFCs had aided in surge in
credit growth to services sector
• NPA an issue for industry credit
• Widening gap between deposit and
credit growth requires build up of
liquidity
• This may lead to increase in term
deposit rates to attract deposits
Industry credit growth lags behind Advances by banks remains upbeat
• Lower interest rates compared to NSCs
led to lower bank deposits
• Increase in TDS limit on interest on
term deposits from INR 10,000 to
40,000 likely to aid bank deposits
Deposit growth lags as
demonetization withered off
Lagging bank deposit growth compared to advances 15
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Outstanding Bank Credit Growth YoY
Industry Services Personal Loans
5.4
7.1
5.9
7.8
7.1
2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 till
date
Advances by scheduled commercial
banks (INR Lakh Crore)
0.8 0.7
4.2
0.9
-1.5
7.5 7.2
10.2
5.8
7.1
2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 till
date
Change in Deposits with scheduled
commercial banks (INR Lakh Crore)
Demand Deposits Time Deposits
16. Dollar Index (.DXY) is likely to hold below
97.70 on any initial recovery and trade weak
towards 94/93.5 in the coming 2 to 3 months
ahead of resuming its prevailing bullish trend
in the subsequent months.
USDINR Spot pair is likely to witness an initial
depreciation towards INR 72 to 72.50 and
then appreciate towards INR 68.50 in the
coming 2 to 3 months ahead of a depreciation
phase towards 73.50 in the medium term.
US Dollar Index USD/INR Spot
EURINR Spot pair is likely to depreciate
towards INR 83.50 ahead of appreciating
towards INR 77.50 in the coming 2 to 3
months. Subsequently the pair could witness
a depreciation towards INR 82 and higher.
EUR/INR Spot
Currency Price Outlook 16
Price range
Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019
72.50 to 70.00 68.50 to 73.50
Price range
Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019
83.50 to 79.00 77.50 to 82.00
Price range
Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019
97.70 to 95.00 93.50 to 97.50
18. 14.35
11.35
18.57
27.96
55.30
66.84
14.45
12.01
19.38
27.30
57.27
70.75
Others
CPKO + CNO
Sun Oil
Rape Oil
Soy Oil
Palm Oil
GLOBAL VEG-OIL OUTPUT
@ 201.2 MMT
UP 3% Y-O-Y
2018-19 2017-18
Global Veg-Oil Production 2018-19 18
19.7
37.3
9.9
20.2
40.2
10.4
PALM OIL
Malaysia
Indonesia
Others
2018-19
2017-18
9.8
6.1
4.2
2.7
5.2
9.1
6.0
4.1
2.9
5.2
RAPESEED OIL
EU
China
Canada
India
Others
2018-19
2017-18
10.8
8.5
7.3
16.2
2.8
9.7
11.4
8.3
8.4
15.7
3.2
10.3
SOYBEAN OIL
USA
Brazil
Argentina
China
EU
Others
2018-19
2017-18
5.9
4.6
3.5
1.3
3.3
6.4
4.2
3.9
1.6
3.4
SUNFLOWER OIL
Ukraine
Russia
EU
Argentina
Others
2018-19
2017-18
+5.8%
+3.6%
-2.4%
+4.4%
+5.8%
+0.7%
19. 2018-19 India Oilseed And Veg-oil Production Estimates
Rapeseed,
7.30
Soybean, 9.98
Cottonseed,
10.72
Rice bran, 7.57
Groundnut ,
4.07
Sunflower,
0.29
2018-19 India Oilseed Production (MMT)
6.55
8.30
11.20
7.53
4.55
0.31
7.30
9.98
10.72
7.57
4.07
0.29
Rapeseed Soybean Cottonseed Rice bran Groundnut Sunflower
India Oilseed Production (MMT)
2017-18 2018-19
India 2018-19 total oilseed production estimated 5% up Y-o-Y
at 40.9 MMT – mainly coming from soybean and rapeseed.
Total veg-oil production is pegged at 8.1 MMT vs 7.8 MMT LY.
(Production – 8.1 : Imports – 15.4 : Consumption – 23.5 : Stocks ~ 2)
All figures above in MMT
19
2.73
1.49 1.33 1.24
0.69
0.12
3.04
1.61
1.27 1.26
0.58
0.11
MO SBO CSO RBO GNO SFO
India Veg-oil Production (MMT)
2017-18 2018-19
20. Global Veg-oil Import Demand Projected 4% Up Y-o-Y
• Palm oil imports are projected to rise across most major importers, with major demand rise
coming from India and EU counters.
• At EU – Lower domestic rapeseed production, healthy refining margins and steady biodiesel
demand to support palm oil import demand. (Softened tone of anti-palm campaign would
also come to aid of palm oil)
• At India – Significantly large spread of palm oil with soft oils, up to 3% higher domestic
consumption than last year and favorable currency/policy setup would boost palm oil imports.
– Monsoon uncertainty for 2019 Kharif season would also be a major decisive factor.
• Demand likely to stay stable at China and Middle East.
20
8.60
9.10
3.05 3.30
0.31 0.35
2.47 2.65
17-18 18-19 17-18 18-19 17-18 18-19 17-18 18-19
PALM SOY RAPE SUN
INDIA TOTAL VEG-OIL IMPORTS PROJECTED
TO RISE BY 7% 15.4 MMT
66.84
70.55
9.85 11.14
27.96 27.30
8.16 8.18
17-18 18-19 17-18 18-19 17-18 18-19 17-18 18-19
PALM SOY RAPE SUN
GLOBAL VEG-OIL IMPORTS (MMT)
6.22
6.94
8.29
9.02
2017-18 2018-19 2017-18 2018-19
PALM OIL TOTAL
EU Imports (MMT)
5.11 5.19
7.17
8.16
2017-18 2018-19 2017-18 2018-19
PALM OIL TOTAL
China Imports (MMT)
4.09 4.20
6.18 6.40
2017-18 2018-19 2017-18 2018-19
PALM OIL TOTAL
Middle East Imports (MMT)
21. Global Biodiesel Scenario
7.7 9.2 9.7 10.0 10.6
8.9
10.7 11.3
13.0
14.7
6.7
7.0
7.0
7.0
7.3
29.6
31.1
35.4
38.2
40.7
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Biodiesel Production & Feedstock (MMT)
Soyoil Feedstock Palm oil Feestock
Rapeseed oil Feedstock Biodiesel Production
26% 30% 28% 26% 26%
30%
34%
32% 34% 36%
23%
22%
20% 18% 18%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Share Of Veg-Oils As Feedstock
Soyoil Palm Oil Rapeseed Oil
• With projection of 6.5% higher global biodiesel production in
2019, the demand for veg-oil feedstock is projected to rise by
7% in 2019.
21
22. Focus On Soy Crush Margin and Soy-product Exports 22
32
50 53 50
57 60 62
71
75
67
42 41
4751
64
59 59
54 51
37
21
13
-7
16
26
35
60
82 83
88
101
84
63
41
26
19
31
51
61
Soybean Gross Crushing Margin (USD/MMT)
US (USD/MMT) ARG (USD/MMT) BRZ (USD/MMT)
1.07
1.34
4.22
1.12
1.41
3.94
US Brazil Argentina
Big-3 CY SBO Export (MMT)
2017 2018
10.6
14.2
25.3
13.6
16.9
21.8
US Brazil Argentina
Big-3 CY SBM Export (MMT)
2017 2018
• In 2018 (Jan-Dec), US & Brazil captured a large share of Argentina
in SBM export market, but Argentina stood the leading exporter in
case of SBO market .
• The improved crushing margin, potential settlement of the trade
dispute between EU&ARG, Brazil B11 mandate and US Bio-diesel
credit expected to keep crushing pace high.
23. Big-3 Soybean Current Stock And Disappearance 23
55
30
18
66
16
21
US Brazil Argentina
Jan’19 Soybean Stock (MMT)
2017 2018 2019
80-83
16-18
21-23
15 13 21
6 8 7
13 13 15
31
33 30
0 0 1 4 1 2
2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019
JFM AMJ
Big-3 Quarterly Soybean Export Projection (MMT)
US Brazil Argentina
13 14 15 12 14 15
10 11 12
11 12 12
9 8
9 12 10
13
2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019
JFM AMJ
Big-3 Quarterly Soybean Crush Projection (MMT)
US Brazil Argentina
• US soybean stocks are projected higher on slow exports last year, while
bumper production at Brazil last season result in higher stocks and
lower output at Argentina last season is resulting lower stocks.
• US exports of beans in JFM’19 are projected up 7% Y-o-Y after US-
China truce established at G20 last year.
• With fresh supplies from this season harvest, bean exports and
crushing at Brazil and Argentina would improve in the coming months.
24. Soybean Complex Balances 24
BIG-3 SOYBEAN – ALL FIGURES IN MMT
PARTICULARS
UNITED STATES BRAZIL ARGENTINA
2017/18 2018/19 2017/18 2018/19 2017/18 2018/19
PRODUCTION 120.01 126.12 119.28 116.10 36.50 55.19
DOMESTIC CRUSH 55.91 59.00 44.17 43.50 37.67 43.00
EXPORTS 57.94 52.00 76.20 78.50 2.13 7.83
ENDING STOCKS 11.28 23.17 18.79 9.43 32.33 35.03
BIG-3 SOYOIL – ALL FIGURES IN MMT
PARTICULARS
UNITED STATES BRAZIL ARGENTINA
2017/18 2018/19 2017/18 2018/19 2017/18 2018/19
PRODUCTION 10.78 11.41 8.52 8.30 7.32 8.35
DOMESTIC CONS. 9.69 10.29 6.92 7.09 3.30 3.10
EXPORTS 1.11 1.14 1.51 1.28 4.00 5.07
ENDING STOCKS 0.92 1.03 0.48 0.47 0.33 0.51
BIG-3 SOYMEAL – ALL FIGURES IN MMT
PARTICULARS
UNITED STATES BRAZIL ARGENTINA
2017/18 2018/19 2017/18 2018/19 2017/18 2018/19
PRODUCTION 44.64 46.55 34.24 33.33 28.53 33.05
DOMESTIC CONS. 31.51 32.52 17.71 18.13 3.00 3.19
EXPORTS 13.45 14.17 16.07 15.23 25.35 29.80
ENDING STOCKS 0.49 0.66 3.84 3.84 3.58 3.64
27. BMD CPO 3M Futures prices are proceeding in Triple Combination in Primary wave-Z, and currently proceeding in Intermediate wave-[XX]
upwards. Price are likely to hold above MYR 2200 and extend its recovery towards MYR 2400 in the coming 1 to 2 months and eventually
turn lower towards MYR 2050/2000 in the subsequent 2 to 3 months.
Turnaround Point: An immediate move above MYR 2450 shall turn the medium-term sentiment positive negating the projected weakness.
BMD CPO 3M Futures Preferred Count 27
Price range
Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019
2220 TO 2400 2320 TO 2020
28. CPO CNF Spot prices are likely to hold above USD 540 and extend
its recovery towards USD 600 in the coming 1 to 2 months and
eventually turn lower towards USD 480 over the subsequent 2 to 3
months.
MCX CPO 1M Futures prices are likely to hold above USD 545 and
extend its recovery towards USD 610 in the coming 1 to 2 months
and eventually turn lower towards USD 500 over the subsequent 2
to 3 months
CPO CNF, Ex-Kandla MCX CPO 1M Futures
28Indian Palm Spot Markets Price Outlook
Price range
Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019
540 TO 600 585 TO 480
Price range
Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019
545 TO 610 590 TO 500
29. CME Soybean Futures prices are likely to
hold below USc 950 on further gains and
turn weak towards USc 820 to USc 800 in
the coming 5 to 6 months.
CME Soybean Meal futures prices are likely
to hold below USD 325 and turn weak
towards USD 290 in the coming 5 to 6
months.
CME Soybean Futures CME Soymeal Futures
CME Soybean Oil futures prices are likely to
test USc 31 and turn weak towards USc
27.50 and lower in the coming 5 to 6
months.
CME Soyoil Futures
CME Soy Complex Price Outlook 29
Price range
Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019
325 to 305 317 to 295
Price range
Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019
950 to 880 920 to 800
Price range
Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019
29 to 31 30.25 to 27.50
30. Soy CNF, Kandla Spot prices are likely to hold above USD 745 to
extend its recovery towards USD 780 in the coming 1 to 2 months
and eventually turn lower towards USD 680 over the subsequent 2
to 3 moths.
NCDEX Ref. Soy oil Futures prices are likely to hold above USD 745
to extend its recovery towards USD 800 in the coming 1 to 2
months and eventually turn lower towards USD 730 over the
subsequent 2 to 3 moths.
Soy CNF, Kandla Spot USD/MT NCDEX Ref Soy oil Futures Cont., INR/10Kg
30Indian Soy Spot Markets Price Outlook
Price range
Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019
745 TO 780 760 TO 680
Price range
Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019
745 TO 800 780 TO 730
31. NCDEX Soybean futures prices are likely to hold below INR 4000 on
further extension of gains and turn weak towards INR 3400 in the
coming 5 to 6 months.
NCDEX Rapeseed Futures prices are likely to stay below INR 4050 on
further price recovery and turn weak towards INR 3750 to 3700 in
the coming 1 to 2 months ahead of resuming its recovery towards
INR 4100 in the subsequent months.
NCDEX Indian Soybean 1M Futures NCDEX Rapeseed 1M Futures
Indian Oilseeds Price Outlook 31
Price range
Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019
4050 to 3730 3750 to 4100
Price range
Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019
4000 to 3650 3900 to 3400
