The report measures attitudes and preferences regarding the 2020 presidential election, as well as attitudes about the current administration and its policies.
2. 2
ThinkNow conducted a nationwide online
survey among American adults 18 to 64
years of age. The survey measured attitudes
and preferences regarding the 2020
presidential election, as well as attitudes
about the current administration and its
policies.
Background/Methodology
Survey Method
Field Timing
303
Hispanics
Base
Size
› Online via ThinkNow Research’s
Omnibus Study
› February 27th to March 5th, 2020
MethodologyBackground
Regional Coverage
› National
Screening Criteria
› 18 to 64 years of age
Base Size
› 1,500
3. 3
Key Findings
• Our nationwide survey of American adults showed that ethnic groups (Hispanics, African Americans,
Asians) are more likely to say they will vote for the Democratic presidential nominee this election period
than in 2016.
• Currently, about one-third of likely voters say they will vote for the Republican presidential candidate in
the November election which represents a 9-point decrease from 2016. This decrease is seen across
race/ethnicity.
• When it comes to choosing a president, likely Hispanic Democratic voters expressed greater concern
than likely Hispanic Republican voters over several issues – most notably, healthcare, climate change
and gun laws.
• 43% of likely voters approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president. His approval rating among
likely Hispanic voters is 30%.
• The vast majority of Hispanic Republican likely voters support the current administration’s immigration
policies. Hispanic Democrats overwhelmingly oppose these policies.
• Most likely voters believe that marijuana should be legalized and that gun laws should be stricter. The
majority also feel that the government should be doing more to address climate change. These
sentiments are driven by Democrats and to a lesser degree, Hispanics.
Key Research Findings
5. 5
Letters indicate statistically significant difference (95% confidence)
Which party are you/will you register under?
Base: Likely Voters
Among likely voters of the 2020 election – far more Hispanics, African Americans and Asians will be registered
as Democrats than Republicans. More Non-Hispanic Whites will register as Republican.
17% 15% 11%
21% 17%
35%
19%
14%
22%
44%
47%
65%
73%
54%
37%
Total Market Hispanics African-Americans Asians Whites
Democratic
Republican
No Party Preference
(Independent)
(A) (B) (C) (D)
(N=955) (N=293) (N=174) (N=151) (N=337)
• The proportion of Republicans and Independents is similar across the three ethnic groups.
ABC
D
D
D
ABC
B
‘Likely voters’ are defined
as adults who plan to vote
in the 2020 presidential
election and voted in either
the 2018 or 2016 elections 68% 56% 70%A 63% 71%A
Likely
voters →
6. 6
The top reason why some Hispanics, African Americans and Asians are not planning to vote in November is
that they are not eligible to vote.
Why are you not planning to vote?
Base: Not Planning to Vote in 2020 Election
Total Market Hispanics
African-
Americans Asians N.H. Whites
(A) (B) (C) (D)
I'm not interested in politics 25% 14% 17% 11% 33%
I'm currently not eligible to vote 18% 37%D 25%D 46%BD 8%
I don't think my vote makes a difference 16% 10% 21% 8% 18%
I don't like the candidates 16% 7% 15% 12% 20%
I didn't know where to vote 2% 2% 5% 3% 2%
I'm too busy 6% 11% 8% 2% 3%
Other 4% - - 3% 6%
Prefer not to answer 14% 18% 8% 16% 12%
(n=335) (n=124) (n=42)* (n=64) (n=105)
Letters indicate statistically significant difference (95% confidence)
*Caution: Small base size.
Top Reason per segment
• For Non-Hispanic Whites, it’s more about a lack of interest in politics and not liking the candidates.
7. 7
49%
42%
50%
33%
About one-third of Likely Voters say they will vote for the Republican presidential candidate in 2020. This would
represent a 9% point drop from the 42% who voted Republican in 2016.
Who did you vote for in the 2016 election?
Who do you plan to vote for in the 2020 election?
Base: Likely Voters
Another 9% are
unsure who they will
vote for in 2020
(N=955)
2016 2020
Democratic Candidate
2016 2020
Republican Candidate
• Democratic support remains unchanged at this point.
• Still, there are 9% of Likely Voters who are unsure who they will vote for in the 2020 election.
8. 8
The decrease in Republican support is seen across the major race/ethnic groups.
27%
15%
31%
51%
19%
11%
22%
43%
Hispanics African-Americans Asians N.H. Whites
2016 2020
Republican Candidate Support
2016: Voted Republican
2020: Plan to Vote Republican
• Within each group, however, there are some Likely Voters who are undecided.
The % who are
unsure or prefer not
to answer regarding
their preference for
the 2020 election
10% 7% 15% 12%
9. 9
When it comes to choosing a president later this year, Democratic voters will place significantly greater
importance than Republicans on issues like healthcare and climate change. For Republicans, immigration and a
strong military will be more important.
(A) (B)
(N=610) (N=314)
Letters indicate statistically significant difference (95% confidence)
63%
50% 49%
47%
45%
39%
37%
34% 32%
30%
27% 27%
25%
21%
42%
25%
54%
44%
40%
25%
43%
54%
27%
32%
19%
48%
21%
31%
Healthcare Climate
Change
The economy Social Security Gun Laws Anti-Poverty
Programs
Taxes Immigration Justice Reform Opioid
epidemic
LGBTQ Rights Strong Military Legalization of
marijuana
Trade Policy
Likely Democratic Voters Likely Republican Voters
B
B
B
B
A
A
When choosing who to vote for President this year, how
important will the following issues be to you?
• Republicans and Democrats are more in line when it comes to the economy and social security.
Base: Total Market Likely Voters
% Extremely Important
A
10. 10
63%
58% 57%
55%
49%
47% 46% 46%
39%
33% 32% 32%
28% 26%
43%
24%
45%
49%
33%
46%
34%
27% 25%
27%
19%
30%
24%
31%
Healthcare Climate
Change
Social Security The economy Gun Laws Immigration Taxes Anti-Poverty
Programs
Justice Reform Opioid
epidemic
LGBTQ Rights Strong Military Legalization of
marijuana
Trade Policy
Likely Democrat Voters Likely Republican Voters
Likely Hispanic Democratic voters expressed greater concern than likely Hispanic Republican voters over several
issues – most notably, healthcare, climate change and gun laws.
(A) (B)
(N=187) (N=55)*
Letters indicate statistically significant difference (95% confidence)
When choosing who to vote for President this year, how
important will the following issues be to you?
Base: Hispanic Likely Voters
% Extremely ImportantB
B
B
B
*Caution: Small base size.
11. 11
If the candidate they currently support does not win the party’s nomination, most will vote for whoever the
party chooses as the nominee.
If the candidate you support in the primaries does not win
their party's nomination what do you plan to do?
Base: Likely Voters
Total Market Hispanics
Likely
Democratic
Voters
Likely
Republican
Voters
Likely
Democratic
Voters
Likely
Republican
Voters
(A) (B) (C) (D)
Vote for whoever the party
choses as the nominee
69%B 51% 71%B 50%
Vote for a candidate from a
different party
14% 19% 11% 12%
Choose not to vote 2% 4% 3% 20%C
Not sure 15% 26%A 15% 18%
(N=521) (N=255) (N=187) (N=55)*
Letters indicate statistically significant difference (95% confidence)
92% of likely
Republican voters plan
to vote for Donald Trump
*Caution: Small base size.
12. 12
Letters indicate statistically significant difference (95% confidence)
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump
is handling his job as president?
Donald Trump’s approval rating sits at 43% among likely voters and 30% among likely Hispanic voters. This
does, however, differ considerably by likely Democratic and Republican voters.
3% 2% 5%
78%
15%
52%
19%
83%
43%
Likely Democratic
Voters
Likely Republican
Voters
All Likely Voters
Approve
Disapprove
Don't know/No opinion
(A) (B)
(N=521) (N=255) (N=955)
Total Market Likely Voters Hispanic Likely Voters
(C) (D)
(N=187) (N=55)* (N=293)
7% 2% 7%
78%
21%
63%
15%
76%
30%
Likely Democratic
Voters
Likely Republican
Voters
All Likely Voters
A
B
D
C
*Caution: Small base size.
13. 13
Letters indicate statistically significant difference (95% confidence)
Do you support the current administration's
immigration policies?
The vast majority of Hispanic Republican likely voters support the current administration’s immigration
policies. Hispanic Democrats overwhelmingly oppose these policies.
11% 8% 12%
62%
13%
42%
26%
79%
46%
Likely Democratic
Voters
Likely Republican
Voters
All Likely Voters
Yes
No
Don't know
(A) (B)
(N=521) (N=255) (N=955)
Total Market Likely Voters Hispanic Likely Voters
(C) (D)
(N=187) (N=55)* (N=293)
10% 6% 11%
66%
23%
55%
25%
71%
34%
Likely Democratic
Voters
Likely Republican
Voters
All Likely Voters
A
B D
C
*Caution: Small base size.
14. 14
3% 4% 4%
9%
22%
12%
13%
25%
16%
75%
49%
69%
Likely Democratic
Voters
Likely Republican
Voters
All Likely Voters
Letters indicate statistically significant difference (95% confidence)
Do you think gun laws should be more, or less strict?
About 6-in-10 likely voters believe that gun laws should be stricter. This sentiment is felt stronger among
Hispanics (69%).
5% 5% 5%
6%
20%
11%
16%
37%
24%
74%
38%
59%
Likely Democratic
Voters
Likely Republican
Voters
All Likely Voters
More strict
The same
Less strict
Don't know
(A) (B)
(N=521) (N=255) (N=955)
Total Market Likely Voters Hispanic Likely Voters
(C) (D)
(N=187) (N=55)* (N=293)
A
B D
C
A
• Among the Total Market, likely Democrat voters are about twice as likely to want stricter gun laws compared to Republicans
*Caution: Small base size.
15. 15
4%
13% 8%
14%
16%
14%
12%
40%
18%
70%
31%
61%
Likely Democratic
Voters
Likely Republican
Voters
All Likely Voters
Letters indicate statistically significant difference (95% confidence)
What do you think of the Federal Government's policy
towards climate change?
A slight majority of likely voters believe the government is not doing enough to combat climate change.
6%
13% 10%
9%
26%
14%
15%
30%
20%
71%
31%
55%
Likely Democratic
Voters
Likely Republican
Voters
All Likely Voters
Not doing enough
Has it about right
Doing too much
Don't know
(A) (B)
(N=521) (N=255) (N=955)
Total Market Likely Voters Hispanic Likely Voters
(C) (D)
(N=187) (N=55)* (N=293)
A
B
D
C
A
A
• Democrats and Republicans are clearly divided on this issue.
*Caution: Small base size.
16. 16
Letters indicate statistically significant difference (95% confidence)
Do you think the Federal government
should legalize Marijuana?
Most likely voters are in favor of the federal government legalizing marijuana. Support is significantly
stronger among Democrats than Republicans.
8% 12% 11%
25%
41%
32%
68%
48%
58%
Likely Democratic
Voters
Likely Republican
Voters
All Likely Voters
Yes
No
Don't know
(A) (B)
(N=521) (N=255) (N=955)
Total Market Likely Voters Hispanic Likely Voters
(C) (D)
(N=187) (N=55)* (N=293)
8% 7% 10%
28%
39% 29%
64%
54%
61%
Likely Democratic
Voters
Likely Republican
Voters
All Likely Voters
A
B
*Caution: Small base size.
18. 18
Total
Market Hispanics
Race/Ethnicity
White 62% --
Hispanics 18% 100%
African-Americans 14% --
Asians 6% --
Gender
Female 49% 50%
Male 49% 47%
Gender fluid 1% 1%
Non-binary 1% 1%
Age Group
18 to 34 38% 45%
35 to 49 30% 32%
50 to 64 32% 23%
Median age 40 36
Education
High School Grad or Less (Net) 25% 36%
Some College (Net) 36% 35%
College Grad or More (Net) 39% 29%
Median Household Income $59K $46K
(N=1,500) (N=500)
Sample Profile