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Afterreachingitspeakof731.33points,theVNIndexexperiencedanadjustmentperiodfor2weekswith
a decrease of 3.2%. The difficulty of the index increasing was apparent after large-cap stocks stopped
leading the market during late March 2017, following the strong surge in the first quarter of this year.
We believe that geopolitical factors were the main catalyst for the aggressive profit takingactivities last
month.
Credit growthdramatically improved inQ12017. This movement surprised us because capital demand
is usually low during the first quarter. As the results, it is possible that a part of credit flew to the stock
market.Asaresult,liquidity successfully increased overthe first4monthsof2017,achieving anaverage
of VND3,818 billion/session (+38% YoY). When manufacturing production is promoted from Q2 2017,
consumers will borrow more from banks, and the capital for the stock exchange could gradually
decline. Based on this, we expect that flows from foreign investors will continue to be poured into
Vietnam’s stock exchanges. The market may further open up due to the additional room created from
Pakistan being promoted to an emerging market this month, allowing Vietnam to take over some of
this space.
The classic statement “Sell in May” has been a frequently supported idea, which will continue to create
a cautious sentiment for investors. Moreover, the annual general meeting season passed, and a large
number of companies have announced Q1 business results. Therefore, the overall picture of business
prospects for listed companies is quite clear at this moment, as a large amount of information has been
announced during AGMs. After this period, there will be less supporting information for companies.
Meanwhile, sudden global movements could continue to negatively impact Vietnam’s stock market.
Therefore, we believe that May will be a favorable period for the market. However, the business results
released in the first quarter may not immediately influence stock prices. Firms with a bright outlook in
the remaining quarters of the year will still be able to maintain a fair price or reasonable price increase.
We expect the VNIndex to fluctuate between 705 and 730 points with an average trading volume of
around VND3,800 billion. In May, the domestic macroeconomic environment may not have much
supporting news. Although the probability of a negative downturn is not high, we still do not advise
investors to use margin during this period.
.
Analysis and Investment Advisory
Truc Doan – Head of Research
truc.dtt@vdsc.com.vn
Ha My Tran
my.tth@vdsc.com.vn
Lam Nguyen
lam.ntp@vdsc.com.vn
Thien Bui
thien.bv@vdsc.com.vn
Hieu Nguyen
hieu.nd@vdsc.com.vn
Quang Vo
quang.vv@vdsc.com.vn
Huong Pham
huong.pt@vdsc.com.vn
Please see penultimate page for
additional important disclosure
Viet Dragon Securities Corp. (“VDSC”) is a
foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the
USA. VDSC research is prepared by
researchanalysts whoare not registeredin
the USA. VDSC research is distributed in
the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by
Rosenblatt Securities Inc, an SEC
registered and FINRA-member broker-
dealer.
620
650
680
710
740
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
20/01 10/02 24/02 10/03 24/03 10/04 24/04
Trading Volume (mil. shares) VNINdex (right axis)
07/05/2017
Investment Strategy May 2017
Optimistic Q1 2017 Earnings Season
Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 2
CONTENTS
WORLD ECONOMY................................................................................................................................................................................ 3
US: The Economy Lost Some Steam in Q1..........................................................................................................................................................................3
EU: Growth Outlook Remains Intact.....................................................................................................................................................................................4
China: Q1 GDP Growth Signaled a Better Outlook..........................................................................................................................................................4
WORLD STOCK MARKETS..................................................................................................................................................................... 5
VIETNAM ECONOMY ............................................................................................................................................................................ 6
2017 Trade Outlook: Better Growth but Higher Deficit.................................................................................................................................................6
Industries Outlook from a Macro Perspective...................................................................................................................................................................7
VIETNAM STOCK MARKET APRIL: ONE CORRECTION PHASE DOSE NOT CHANGE THE BIG PICTURE........................................... 9
STOCK MARKET OUTLOOKS ..............................................................................................................................................................12
INVESTMENT STRATEGY....................................................................................................................................................................13
Based on these observations of the market, we believe that “surfing” or short-term investments contain higher levels of risk.
Instead, investors should focus on companies with solid intermediate and long term plans.
Based on the Q1 2017 earnings of listed companies, an 8% YTD increase of the VNIndex is totally justified. Most companies
recorded strong growth in profit not only from core businesses, but also extraordinary profits such as property sales and
divestitures. Moreover, a large number of companies in certain sectors recovered from the previous bottom experienced. We
recognize that businesses are gradually improving along with positive macroeconomic data, which provides a positive outlook
for 2017. Furthermore, a statistical survey of 2017 business plans after annual general meeting season also demonstrated a
positive picture for the market, as half of the companies projected revenue to increase by more than 10% YoY. Some of Rong Viet
Research’s favorite sectors include construction, building materials, consumer good, hydropower and banking.
In spite of being the trough season, Q1 2017 business results from building materials companies, including stones and ceramic
tiles, recorded impressive growth rates. To be more specific, profit after tax of several notable companies such as KSB, DHC, NNC
and VIT improved by 83.4%, 58.0%, 7.1% and 83% YoY, respectively thanks to the improvement in output and business efficiency.
The higher level of activity in the construction and real estate market in Q2 2017 will be a catalyst for positive growth of earnings
for these sectors, as compared to previous quarters.
The probability of Tan Dong Hiep and Nui Nho quarries receiving an extension for 2 – 3 years has significantly improved, with a
major consensus (93%) of local citizens. In addition to this, companies are also looking for new mines, acquiring others in the
same industry (KSB, C32) and increasing capacity in existing quarries (DHA, KSB, NNC). Regarding VIT, the acquisition and
renovation of My Duc brick factory will be a solution for its bottleneck issues, and providing strong future growth prospects for
this year and the following year. Investment opportunities for DHA, NNC and VIT in the intermediate term are favorable.
Hydropower is also worth considering for intermediate-term investment objectives for the following reasons: (1) The interference
between La Nina and El Nino caused high demand for electricity while bringing unseasonal rains in the Mid-Central, Central
Highlands and the South. This resulted in high volume from hydropower during the first four months of 2017. Most hydropower
plants recorded strong growth in profit, higher than the multi-year average and exceptionally high compared to the same period
in 2016. Although there are many comments regarding the possibility of El Nino’s return in the second half of 2017, we think that
this event will not be a significant area of concern, especially since the rainy season of the South began earlier; (2) In the first
quarter of 2017, electricity consumption growth reached 8.3% YoY. In Q2 2017, the growth rate will be 12%, according to EVN's
plan; and (3) The rising input price of thermal power plants (coal and gas) will enhance the advantage for hydropower plants in
the CGM. Our favorite hydro plants are CHP, SHP, and VSH. However, the low level of liquidity is the major disadvantage that
investors should pay attention to when investing in hydropower stocks. Instead, we think that REE might be a more suitable
option with its current hydropower portfolio.
We also think that the construction, banking, textile and port sectors are noteworthy areas for investment. In terms of business
results in Q1 2017, construction, banking, and textile companies have delivered stronger growth as compared to last year. We
believe that the overall performance of these sectors will be stronger than 2016, as the prospects for the remaining three quarters
are also very strong. Given the strong increase in terms of stocks prices in the first four months, we currently give a neutral
recommendation for textile stocks and recommend investors to accumulate stocks in the remaining industries.
HIGHLIGHT STOCKS............................................................................................................................................................................18
49 stocks of RongViet Research (analyzing, discussing with companies) and have analysis and specific evaluation in “Company
report” or “Analyst pinboard”.
Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 3
WORLD ECONOMY
• US: The Economy Lost Some Steam in Q1
• EU: Growth Outlook Remains Intact
• China: Q1 GDP Growth Signals a Better Outlook
In the first quarter of 2017, the economic growth of Asian countries outpaced the EU and US. Thanks
to the recovery of the manufacturing sector and increased global demand, we expect that the growth
momentum willstrengthenor atleastremain firm inthe upcoming quartersofthisyear.The monetary
policies of major central banks appear to be in line with market expectations. Moreover, the
uncertainty in global trade policy has also eased. The USD is set to decline because political drivers
have failed to boost it and the US wants a weaker USD. We expect that the CNY will depreciate due to
structural outflow pressures, while the fall in GBP and EUR will be much more limited, according to
HSBC’s forecast.
US: The Economy Lost Some Steam in Q1
In the first quarter of 2017, the economy expanded at the slowest pace in three years. The
economy grew at 0.7% this quarter, below expectations of 1.1%. The deceleration in growth was
mostly a result of weak consumption, which offset the rise in investment in housing and oil drilling
and the rise in exports. Specifically, the dismal performance among US households was largely
associated with lower auto sales and home-heating bills, and seasonal effects. As a result, the
growth in private consumption decelerated abruptly from 3.5% in the last quarter of last year to
0.3% in Q1 2017. Meanwhile, fixed investments accelerated to a five year high (10.4% in Q1). The
pickup in global demand also supported export growth, which experienced a 5.8% increase
compared to a 4.5% drop in Q4 2016. Despite the deceleration in the economy being larger than
expected, the US. Central Bank expects this downturn to be temporary. The FED now expects
economic growth to range between 1.7%-2.3% in 2017.
In the third FOMC meeting held on the 2nd-3rd of May, the FED decided to leave its interest rates
unchanged. The decision was broadly in line with market expectations, and the likelihood for an
interest rate hike at the next meeting in June is 78.8%, according to the FedWatchTool. At the end
of April, President Trump unveiled a tax cut plan for individuals and businesses. At the moment,
there are still many unanswered questions about the feasibility of this plan. However, it seems
that the Trump administration has now been able to support growth and has been less aggressive
in trade protectionism.
Figure 1: US GDP Growth (Unit: %) Figure 2: Rate Hike Probability Historical for the next
meeting
Source: Bloomberg Source: CMEGroup
-1.2
4
5
2.3
2
2.6
2
0.9 0.8
1.4
3.5
2.1
0.7
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Q42015
Q12016
Q22016
Q32016
Q42016
Q12017
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
05/04/2016
05/20/2016
06/08/2016
06/24/2016
07/13/2016
07/29/2016
08/16/2016
09/01/2016
09/20/2016
10/06/2016
10/24/2016
11/09/2016
11/28/2016
12/14/2016
01/03/2017
01/20/2017
02/07/2017
02/24/2017
03/14/2017
03/30/2017
04/18/2017
Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 4
EU: Growth Outlook Remains Intact
The Eurozone recorded a 1.9% YoY growth rate in Q1 2017, which was in line with market
expectations. Growth was strong in markets such as Austria, Belgium and Spain, while economic
activities lost some momentum in France during political events. The outlook of the region as a
whole is stable with a strong labor market and a brighter global demand. The unemployment rate
was unchanged at 9.5%, the lowest rate since May 2009 and lower than the average of 10% in
2016. Moreover, there is widespread optimism among firms in the manufacturing sector,
highlighted by the multi-year high PMI data in April.
In the latest meeting, the ECB decided to hold interest rates and made no changes in its bond-
buying programs. At the moment, there is a strong consensus that the ECB will keep the policy
rate unchanged at the current level of 0% to support economic growth.
Figure 3: EU GDP Growth Figure 4: Improving Sentiment
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
China: Q1 GDP Growth Signaled a Better Outlook
China’s GDP grew at an above-consensus 6.9% YoY in the first quarter of 2017 thanks to the
marked recovery in investment and manufacturing. Industrial production rose 7.6% in March of
2017, accelerating from the 6.6% rise in the first two months of 2017. This was above market
expectations and was the fastest growth since 2014. Simultaneously, fixed asset investments
expanded 9.2% annually in the first 3 months experiencing the strongest growth in 10 months.
Notably, manufacturing investment recovered after six years of decline. Export growth reached
8.2% YoY in Q1, a swift turnaround from the 7.7% decline in 2016. Because the recovery is
spreading from manufacturing to private investments and exports, we expect that the economic
outlook will improve in 2017.
Figure 5: China GDP Growth and Manufacturing PMI Figure 6: FAI Investment Growth
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
2.1
2.2
2.1 2.1
1.8 1.8
1.9 1.9 1.9
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2015 2016 2017
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
04/16
05/16
06/16
07/16
08/16
09/16
10/16
11/16
12/16
01/17
02/17
03/17
Consumer Confidence Business Confidence
6.5
6.7
6.9
7.1
7.3
7.5
7.7
7.9
8.1
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
01/13
04/13
07/13
10/13
01/14
04/14
07/14
10/14
01/15
04/15
07/15
10/15
01/16
04/16
07/16
10/16
01/17
GDP PMI
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
01/16
03/16
04/16
05/16
06/16
07/16
08/16
09/16
10/16
11/16
12/16
01/17
03/17
04/17
Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 5
WORLD STOCK MARKETS
Figure 7: Performances of Major Global Stock Market Indices in April
Source: Bloomberg, RongViet Research
World stock markets in April were largely influenced by geopolitical tensions over Syria, North
Korea and Afghanistan in the first two weeks, and only really flourished after candidate Emmanuel
Marcon European Union support school) won the first round of the French presidential election.
The US market was supported by positive expectations regarding President Trump's new tax
policy package, along with a slew of positive earnings reports. By the end of the month, the Dow
Jones and S&P500 gained 1.34% and 0.91% respectively, while the Nasdaq kept climbing for the
sixth consecutive month.
Global investors are looking to France, due to the country’s presidential election. The performance
of stock markets in this country suggested that there isn’t likely another “Fraxit” ahead. The
market sentiment was calm and tilted to the possibility that the next President would be
Emmanuel Macron, who supported France staying in the EU. Except for the FTSE 100 of the UK,
which fell 1.62% due to the unclear moves of Brexit, other indices such as CAC 40 and DAX were
up from the closing price at the end of March.
The markets in Asia have been similar to other world markets, except China, although it is sending
a positive signal from Q1 GDP growth. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.54%. The reason
for this is that investors are concerned that the Chinese government is increasingly tightening risk
controls in the country's financial system, especially in the recent times when there are many
warnings about the heat of the real estate market in this country. Other neighboring countries,
such as Japan and South Korea, recorded a recovery in the second half of April (Nikkei 225 and
Hang Seng rose 1.52% and 1.09%, respectively). It is worth mentioning that the South Korean
Kospi Index rose in spite of severe geopolitical tensions between North Korea and the United
States. This may reflect that the risk of war between the two Koreas and America is not high. This
is in contrast to the Vietnamese market, where global geopolitical tensions were used to explain
the downward movement of the VNIndex in April.
Overall, last April was relatively "quiet" for international stock markets. Although information
about the US - North Korea appears quite dense, this reason was not enough for international
investors to falter in the past month.
6% 6%
15%
1%
8% 8%
0%
3%
12%
7%
9%
7%
9% 8%
12%
10%
-8%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
DowJones
S&P500
Nasdaq
FTSE100
CAC40
DAX
Nikkei225
SSE(Shanghai)
HangSeng(Hongkong)
TSEC(Taiwan)
Kospi(Korean)
JKSE(Indonesia)
KLSE(Malaysia)
VNIndex(Vietnam)
HNX-Index(Vietnam)
Gold
Oil
From 31/03/2017 to 28/04/2017 From 31/12/2016 to 28/04/2017
Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 6
VIETNAM ECONOMY
• 2017 Trade Outlook: Better Growth but Higher Deficit
• Industries Outlook from a Macro Perspective
Economic activities improved in April, most notably industrial production and consumption. The
manufacturing sector is the main growth driver, which is largely dependent on the FDI sector. We will
provide specific assessments for a variety of manufacturing industries in the note below.
During the first 4 months, banking liquidity remained stable as interbank rates remained below 5%,
supporting credit growth in the economy. The SBV actively devalued the dong by adjusting the central
exchange rate (0.88%). However, market exchange rates did not change much from the end of 2016,
due to the weakness of the USD.
Because of the dismal performance of the mining industry, we revised our GDP growth forecast from
6.58% to 6.4%. Meanwhile, the strong recovery in trade could boost trade growth above our previous
forecast. As a result, we raise our export growth forecast for 2017 from 10.4% to 14.1% and import
growth from 11.9% to 18%.
2017 Trade Outlook: Better Growth but Higher Deficit
As we mentioned in our 2017 Strategy Report, there will be a recovery in trade despite the
uncertainty in global trade policy. In the first 4 months of 2017, export growth was strong, above
our expectations. Exports grew 16% YoY, much better than the growth rate of 6.7% in 2016. The
improvement was mainly led by processing exports, such as electrical products (+45.5% YoY),
machinery (+42.6% YoY), which displays the relatively positive performance of the FDI sector.
Samsung’s operations had significant impacts on Vietnam’s exports. The abnormal growth of
electrical products was due to Samsung Electronics HCMC CE Complex project, which began
operating in June 2016. Meanwhile, negative growth in cellphone exports (-6% YoY) was an
abnormal case, resulting from the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 crisis.
Export performance of domestic companies improved during the first 4 months of 2017, with a
growth of 13.1% thanks to higher commodity prices. However, one of our most significant
concerns is the imbalance in domestic trade. Imports grew 23% YoY, a dramatic gain from 0.3% in
2016. As a result, there was a deficit of ~USD7.9 billion in domestic trade in the first 4 months of
2017, a 53.4% YoY increase.
Performance of Vietnam’s exports to other markets varied substantially. Asian countries were the
main drivers for export growth, while exports to the EU and US (key export partners of Vietnam)
were not very encouraging in the first 4 months. Most notably, exports to China grew 45.1% YoY,
equivalent to USD8.6 billion; exports to the US only grew 3.7% YoY (~USD11.9 billion).
Figure 8: Trade Growth Recovered in The First 4 Months Figure 9: Trade Growth by Key Partners
Source: Customs, RongViet Research Source: Customs, RongViet Research
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
01/2016
02/2016
03/2016
04/2016
05/2016
06/2016
07/2016
08/2016
09/2016
10/2016
11/2016
12/2016
01/2017
02/2017
03/2017
04/2017
Export Import
US: $11.9 bn (+3.7% YoY)
EU: $11.3 bn (+8.8% YoY)
China: $8.6 bn (+45.1% YoY)
ASEAN: $6.7 bn (+26.0% YoY)
Japan: $5.2 bn (+19.3% YoY)
Korea: $4.4 bn (+32.0% YoY)
EXPORTS
China: $17.6 bn (+19.4% YoY)
Korea: $13.7 bn (+45.3% YoY)
ASEAN: $8.9 bn (+20.4% YoY)
Japan: $5.1 bn (+16.9% YoY)
EU: $3.8 bn (+24.3% YoY)
US: $3.0 bn (+23.1% YoY)
IMPORTS
Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 7
Currently, we see three elements supporting the outlook of trade in 2017:
1. External outlook improving: The first meeting between President Xi and President Trump
significantly reduced the risk of a head-on confrontation over trade. We think this is a good
signal for not only China but also Vietnam. In addition, TPP countries kick-started discussions
towards implementing the pact without the US at the beginning of May 2017. There is now
hope that the TPP pact will come alive and support trade growth. Last but not least, the
economic outlook of Asian countries became brighter in the first quarter of 2017, pointing to
a significant improvement in demand.
2. Steadied FDI flows: Because the FDI sector has taken a great part in Vietnam trade turnovers
(~70%), there is no doubt that past investments will contribute to future growth in exports.
SEHC, LG Display, and LG Innotek, are some big names that could influence export growth in
the short term.
3. There was a pause in the recovery of commodity prices, mainly due to the supply side.
However, for commodity-exporting domestic companies, the rebound in prices in 2016 still
give them room to grow on a year over year basis.
Based on the above rationales, we raise our export growth forecast for 2017 from 10.4% to 14.1%
and import growth from 11.9% to 18%. We estimate that the trade deficit will be $5 billion in 2017,
a significant change from a surplus of $1.5 billion in 2016.
Industries Outlook from a Macro Perspective
The breakdown on manufacturing data displays a considerable level of discrepancy in
performance for each industry in the first quarter of 2017. Production indicators that performed
strongly include the following areas: steel, electrical products and cable industries. There was also
very positive demand for products such as milk, fertilizers, electrical products, storage batteries,
automobiles and cable industries. It is worth noting that inventory surged in the first quarter of
2017, mainly due to a sharp increase of assembled cars (Thaco Truong Hai) and the declining
growth momentum in the steel industry.
From a macro perspective, we expect that the mining sector will be in a more challenging phase.
Crude production growth decreased by 14.5% in the first 4 months of 2017. Because the supply
gut continues to weigh on oil prices as well as Vietnam’s oil operators, we adjust our 2017 GDP
growth forecast from 6.58% to 6.4%.
In Q1 2017, the biggest outperformers came from fiber, fertilizer, electrical products and cable
industries. We think companies operating in these industries can continue to perform well. In the
absence of a significant rebound in the inflation rate, we expect consumer goods companies to
remain positive. In addition, the recovery in textile exports could brighten the 2017 business
outlook of textile companies.
Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 8
Table 1: Manufacturing Activities by Sub-sectors in Q1 2017
Unit: %
Production
Growth*
Consumption
Growth
Inventory
Growth
Export
Growth
Import
Growth
Rating
Crude oil -14.2 Na Na 24.3 27.0 - -
Natural gas, LPG -8.4 Na Na Na 37.4 ~
Fishery 3.0 10.5 13.6 7.6 34.5 ~
Milk 9.3 12.7 1.3 Na -9.6 +
Sugar -2.0 -26.0 4.2 Na Na -
Animal Feeds 12.1 5.1 -21.6 6.0 37.3 ~
Beer 10.3 7.8 45.4 Na Na ~
Fiber 14.2 16.0 -5.2 29.9 23.0 ++
Textile 8.8 8.5 -6.4 10.9 Na +
Shoes & Leather 3.0 6.7 10.5 14.1 Na ~
Paper 7.0 8.0 32.8 Na 19.4 +
Fertilizer 12.5 16.6 -46.0 68.1 21.9 ++
Pharmaceutical 4.5 2.4 3.8 Na 6.4 ~
Plastic 8.5 8.0 23.0 11.9 19.3 +
Cement 7.3 1.8 92.3 6.9 Na ~
Steel 47.5 9.5 54.5 77.7 37.3 +
Telephones -10.4 -27.3 49.5 -6.1 22.6 -
Electrical products 23.3 29.5 14.0 45.5 11.9 ++
Storage battery 4.8 14.0 17.5 Na Na +
Cable 20.8 19.6 5.2 23.7 18.7 ++
Automobile 10.9 17.2 220.8 22.5 -1.5 +
Electricity 9.3 Na Na Na Na ~
Water 6.8 Na Na Na Na ~
Source: GSO, Customs, RongViet Research, *4M2017 vs 4M2016
Seriously negative Negative growth in production, consumption, significant increase in inventory - -
Negative Below-average growth in production, consumption, significant increase in inventory -
Neutral Production, consumption and inventory remain stable compared to the same period ~
Positive Positive growth in production, consumption, inventory remains stable +
Very positive High growth in production, consumption, inventory remains stable + +
Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 9
VIETNAM STOCK MARKET APRIL: ONE CORRECTION PHASE DOSE NOT CHANGE THE BIG
PICTURE
The first significant correction of the market finally occurred in April. The strong profit taking
coincided with various geopolitical tensions, which caused the VN-Index to plummet from 731.33
points on April 11th to 707.58 points on April 25th. However, the index gradually recovered from
this decline by the end of April; the VN-Index reached 717.73 points, up 8% from the beginning of
the year (7% excluding ROS), while the HNX-Index reached 89.54 points, up 11.8%. The strong
increase indicates the market's high expectations for business prospects, and this time it seems
the market was right. The recently announced Q1 results of 545 companies displayed a
positive picture for the market.
Figure 10: VN-Index movement in April Figure 11: HNX-Index movement in April
Source: RongViet Research Source: RongViet Research
Large and mid-cap stocks had excellent Q1 results overall. The total NPAT of 26/30 companies
in the VN-30 basket delivered growth of 27%, with only six companies experiencing negative
growth (BMP, DPM, KDC, MSN, NT2 and PVD). For the VN-MID basket, the figure was even more
impressive. Enterprises such as PPC, DCM, HBC, PNJ, DXG, NKG, VSH, SHP, SAM, PHR, KSB, STK, PDR,
and ELC delivered earnings growth from 70% to over 200% over the same period. This robust
growth has justified the rally of the VN-MID since the beginning of this year.
Figure 12: Revenue and NPAT Growth of the Main Index in Q1 2017
Source: FiinPro, RongViet Research *excluding CII and STG
680
700
720
740
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
20/01 10/02 24/02 10/03 24/03 10/04 24/04
Trading Volume (mil. shares) VNINdex (right axis)
79
83
87
91
95
0
30
60
90
20/01 10/02 24/02 10/03 24/03 10/04 24/04
Trading Volume (mil. shares) HNXIndex (right axis)
8.3%
17.7%
9.3% 8.0%
11.8%
20.7%
8.4% 7.9%
14.1%
10.5%
26.9%
38.1%
8.0%
27.7%
24.0%
VN-30 VN-MID VN-SML HOSE HNX
Performance YTD Revenue NPAT
Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017
10
The financial services sector led in profitability growth. The strong activity of the stock market
in Q1 has led to a sharp increase in the average daily trading value and margin lending, which in
turn boosted the earnings of brokerage firms. However, these positive business results were not
fully reflected in the stock price. The stock price of top brokerage firms like VND, SSI, and HCM
have only increased by less than 20% YTD.
However, there are still dark spots for earnings results in Q1. The operations of two oil & gas
companies, PVS and especially PVD, have still not improved. PVD reported a loss for the first time
since the beginning of the low oil price era in 2014. The automobile & parts sector also
experienced some troubles, as HTL, HSC, TMT, DRC, SRC, CSM, and VKC all had negative growth.
Meanwhile, the insurance, chemicals, and travel & leisure sectors only achieved single digit
growth in earnings.
Figure 13: Revenue and NPAT Growth of Sectors in Q1 2017
Source: FiinPro, RongViet Research *excluding CII and STG, which have abnormal financial income (CII: VND1,300 billion, STG: VND571 billion)
The highlight of Q1 results is the improvement of the margins of companies. Although the
improvement can be partly attributed to abnormal financial income of some companies, it is still
a combination of good control in COGS, selling and administration expenses.
Figure 14: Gross and Net Margin of Sectors in Q1 2017
Source: FiinPro, RongViet Research *excluding CII and STG
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
Retail
Insurance
RealEstate
Technology
Oil&Gas
FinancialServices
Utilities
Travel&Leisure
IndustrialGoods&
Services
Personal&Household
Goods
Chemicals
Banks
Automobiles&Parts
BasicResources
Food&Beverage
Media
Construction&
Materials
HealthCare
Revenue NPAT Performance (YTD)
17.2%
18.1%
8.2%
9.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Retail
Insurance
RealEstate
Technology
Oil&Gas
FinancialServices
Utilities
Travel&Leisure
IndustrialGoods&
Services
Personal&Household
Goods
Chemicals
Banks
Automobiles&Parts
BasicResources
Food&Beverage
Media
Construction&Materials
HealthCare
Total
Gross margin Q1 2016 Gross margin Q1 2017 Net margin Q1 2016 Net margin Q1 2017
Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017
11
April is a peak time in Vietnam’s stock market, with a large number of AGM sessions taking place.
Our overall impression after attending the AGMs of our coverage list is fairly optimistic. Statistics
for the 2017 business plans of 349 listed companies has also confirmed our view, as half of these
have targeted at least 10% growth in revenue. Considering what these companies have achieved
so far in Q1, the optimism seems to be reasonable.
Figure 15: 2017 Revenue Plan vs 2016 Actual Revenue
Source: FiinPro, RongViet Research
Companies have started off on the right foot, and expect to maintain this momentum through
Q2. Consequently, we retain our positive view regarding the market in Q2, but still leave room for
some possible corrections down the road. We would also like to remind investors about the
dividend payment schedule in May, as the dividend season has still continued.
Figure 16: Foreign Investors trading in the first 4 months
Source: FiinPro, RongViet Research
22%
10%
16%28%
12%
5%
3% 3%
(+)30%
(+)20%-30%
(+)10%-20%
(+)0-10%
(-)0-10%
(-)10%-20%
(-)20%-30%
(-)30%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
03/01 21/03
Net bought/sold Accumulated Value
Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017
12
STOCK MARKET OUTLOOKS
After reaching its peak of 731.33 points, the VNIndex experienced an adjustment period for 2
weeks with a decrease of 3.2%. The difficulty of the index increasing was apparent after large-cap
stocks stopped leading the market during late March 2017, following the strong surge in the first
quarter of this year. We believe that geopolitical factors were the main catalyst for the aggressive
profit taking activities last month.
Credit growth dramatically improved in Q1 2017. This movement surprised us because capital
demand is usually low during the first quarter. As the results, it is possible that a part of credit flew
to the stock market. As a result, liquidity successfully increased over the first 4 months of 2017,
achieving an average of VND3,818 billion/session (+38% YoY). When manufacturing production
is promoted from Q2 2017, consumers will borrow more from banks, and the capital for the stock
exchange could gradually decline. Based on this, we expect that flows from foreign investors will
continue to be poured into Vietnam’s stock exchanges. The market may further open up due to
the additional room created from Pakistan being promoted to an emerging market this month,
allowing Vietnam to take over some of this space.
The classic statement “Sell in May” has been a frequently supported idea, which will continue to
create a cautious sentiment for investors. Moreover, the annual general meeting season passed,
and a large number of companies have announced Q1 business results. Therefore, the overall
picture of business prospects for listed companies is quite clear at this moment, as a large amount
of information has been announced during AGMs. After this period, there will be less supporting
information for companies. Meanwhile, sudden global movements could continue to negatively
impact Vietnam’s stock market. Therefore, we believe that May will be a favorable period for the
market. However, the business results released in the first quarter may not immediately influence
stock prices. Firms with a bright outlook in the remaining quarters of the year will still be able to
maintain a fair price or reasonable price increase.
We expect the VNIndex to fluctuate between 705 and 730 points with an average trading volume
of around VND3,800 billion. In May, the domestic macroeconomic environment may not have
much supporting news. Although the probability of a negative downturn is not high, we still do
not advise investors to use margin during this period.
Table 2: Key sectors performance
No Name
% 1M Price
Change
% 3M Price
Change
% 12M Price
Change
Market Cap
(VND Billion)
ROA
(%)
ROE (%) Basic P/E P/B
1 Retail -1.3% 4.3% 90.7% 29,475 8.0% 25.1% 13.7 5.2
2 Insurance -2.7% -2.0% 9.1% 60,182 2.3% 8.7% 21.9 2.4
3 Real Estate 0.4% 9.2% 13.7% 229,278 1.6% 4.6% 20.7 3.1
4 Technology -1.3% 3.2% 18.0% 27,625 6.4% 14.0% 11.6 2.0
5 Oil & Gas -10.4% -12.5% -11.2% 15,224 1.5% 2.7% 15.2 0.6
6 Financial Services -4.2% 9.7% 7.8% 27,725 2.6% 4.9% 10.9 1.2
7 Utilities 2.1% -3.7% 14.5% 145,621 10.4% 17.2% 12.7 2.3
8 Travel & Leisure -1.8% 11.9% 2.7% 8,016 3.1% 5.0% 11.9 2.4
9 Industrial Goods & Services 0.5% 4.8% 15.1% 70,388 6.1% 11.9% 10.9 1.7
10 Personal & Household Goods 4.9% 8.3% 20.0% 27,353 8.7% 19.1% 13.0 3.2
11 Chemicals 1.7% 5.3% 5.6% 40,951 7.0% 11.8% 9.9 1.3
12 Banks -3.2% -2.7% 9.2% 341,903 0.7% 11.0% 14.4 1.6
13 Automobiles & Parts 2.0% 7.1% -4.5% 17,588 7.9% 14.8% 13.5 1.7
14 Basic Resources -0.8% 7.8% 30.2% 68,845 8.4% 20.8% 6.1 1.4
15 Food & Beverage 1.5% 2.8% 37.3% 330,368 7.6% 17.1% 18.8 5.9
16 Media 4.6% 7.6% 18.4% 2,351 5.4% 9.4% 16.5 1.8
17 Construction & Materials -2.2% 13.1% 101.9% 181,988 4.8% 13.3% 16.7 4.5
18 Health Care 1.4% 19.1% 56.3% 28,307 4.6% 9.1% 16.4 3.5
Source: RongViet Research, FiinPro
Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017
13
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Based on these observations of the market, we believe that “surfing” or short-term investments
contain higher levels of risk. Instead, investors should focus on companies with solid intermediate
and long term plans.
Based on the Q1 2017 earnings of listed companies, an 8% YTD increase of the VNIndex is totally
justified. Most companies recorded strong growth in profit not only from core businesses, but also
extraordinary profits such as property sales and divestitures. Moreover, a large number of
companies in certain sectors recovered from the previous bottom experienced. We recognize that
businesses are gradually improving along with positive macroeconomic data, which provides a
positive outlook for 2017. Furthermore, a statistical survey of 2017 business plans after annual
general meeting season also demonstrated a positive picture for the market, as half of the
companies projected revenue to increase by more than 10% YoY. Some of Rong Viet Research’s
favorite sectors include construction, building materials, consumer good, hydropower and
banking.
In spite of being the trough season, Q1 2017 business results from building materials companies,
including stones and ceramic tiles, recorded impressive growth rates. To be more specific, profit
after tax of several notable companies such as KSB, DHC, NNC and VIT improved by 83.4%, 58.0%,
7.1% and 83% YoY, respectively thanks to the improvement in output and business efficiency. The
higher level of activity in the construction and real estate market in Q2 2017 will be a catalyst for
positive growth of earnings for these sectors, as compared to previous quarters.
The probability of Tan Dong Hiep and Nui Nho quarries receiving an extension for 2 – 3 years has
significantly improved, with a major consensus (93%) of local citizens. In addition to this,
companies are also looking for new mines, acquiring others in the same industry (KSB, C32) and
increasing capacity in existing quarries (DHA, KSB, NNC). Regarding VIT, the acquisition and
renovation of My Duc brick factory will be a solution for its bottleneck issues, and providing strong
future growth prospects for this year and the following year. At the current price level, investment
opportunities for DHA, NNC and VIT in the intermediate term are favorable.
Stock picks Target price Horizon Investment Thesis
DHA N/a Intermediate • We expect that consumption at its main quarry, Thanh Phu, will improve after the bridge collapse
incident, which has been overcome, as well as the breakers has been transferred to the new treated
areas.
• Positive growth in output for Tan Cang and Nui Gio quarries, thanks to the improvement in demand
from areas of these quarries and Western region.
• The divestiture from financial investments will support cash flows for future quarry acquisitions and
investment in new building materials.
• Dividend yield is stable, at nearly 7%.
NNC 90,100 Intermediate • High possibility for the expansion of Nui Nho after receiving approval from local citizens. Moreover,
there is a huge demand from infrastructure construction activities in HCM City and Binh Duong.
• Boosting consumption in Tan Lap quarry leads to the improvement in revenue and profit margin.
• Ability to successfully acquire new quarries in order to maintain its core business.
• Business performance exceeds the industry average.
VIT 36,000 Long-term • Revenue growth from its new My Duc factory.
• Increase in gross margin thanks to technology improvements, decline in shrinkage rate and focusing
more on products with higher added-value.
• Local granite tile consumption prospects (VIT’s products) will grow by more than 20%/year according
to the Ministry of Construction.
Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017
14
Hydropower is also worth considering for intermediate-term investment objectives for the
following reasons:
(1) The interference between La Nina and El Nino caused high demand for electricity while
bringing unseasonal rains in the Mid-Central, Central Highlands and the South. This resulted in
high volume from hydropower during the first four months of 2017. Most hydropower plants
recorded strong growth in profit, higher than the multi-year average and exceptionally high
compared to the same period in 2016. Although there are many comments regarding the
possibility of El Nino’s return in the second half of 2017, we think that this event will not be a
significant area of concern, especially since the rainy season of the South began earlier.
(2) In the first quarter of 2017, electricity consumption growth reached 8.3% YoY. In Q2 2017, the
growth rate will be 12%, according to EVN's plan.
(3) The rising input price of thermal power plants (coal and gas) will enhance the advantage for
hydropower plants in the CGM.
However, the low level of liquidity is the major disadvantage that investors should pay attention
to when investing in hydropower stocks. Instead, we think that REE might be a more suitable
option with its current hydropower portfolio including 8 companies (1 Subsidiary, 5 Affiliated
companies and 2 Long-term financial investments).
PPC, a thermal power plant company, is also another stock worth noting, as it has begun
recovering from its bottom, and is a strong pick for investors with an intermediate term horizon.
Stock Picks Target Price Time Horizon Investment Rationales
CHP 25,000 Intermediate
-term
• Revenue and PAT in Q1 2017 increased by 158% and 14.8% respectively.
• Favorable hydrological conditions and the growing demand for electricity will support the company
during the remaining quarters of 2017.
• We expect that its PAT will reach VND356 billion during 2017, corresponding to an EPS of VND2,695.
• The Cash dividend for 2016 and 2017 was approved by the AGM at VND1,600 dong/share and
VND1,500 – 1,700/share.
SHP 22,800 Intermediate
-term
• Revenue increased by 112% YoY and PAT in Q1 2017 was VND -12 billion (Q12016: VND -54 billion)
• Favorable hydrological conditions and growing demand for electricity will support the company during
the remaining quarters of 2017.
• We expect that the company’s PAT will be VND356 billion in 2017, corresponding to an EPS of
VND2,695.
VSH N/a Long-term • Revenue and PAT of Q1 2017 increased by 83% and 97% respectively.
• Favorable hydrological conditions and growing demand for electricity will support the company
during the remaining quarters of 2017.
• The participation of REE will bring about positive changes in VSH's corporate governance.
REE 35,500 Long-term • Revenue and PAT of Q1 2017 increase 97% and 217% respectively.
• Positive outlook of the company’s power sector thanks to (1) Positive outlook of hydropower and (2)
PPC's debt repayment before maturity will help consolidated profit from this company, and it will no
longer has much fluctuations due to exchange rate fluctuations.
• The remaining business sectors followed our expectations.
• We expect that its PAT for 2017 will be VND1,175 billion, corresponding to an EPS of VND3,791.
PPC 19,400 Intermediate
-term
• Revenue and PAT of Q1 2017 reached VN1,476 billion and VND142 billion (Q12016: VND -158 billion)
due to (1) The sharp increase in average selling prices of PL1, (2) the VND32billion profit from
divestment in a subsidiary (3) the decrease in foreign exchange losses.
• Exchange rate risks decreases since PPC plans to prepay its debt before maturity. In which, the company
will pay JPY16 billion in the first half of 2017 with funds from (1) cash and short-term bank deposits and
(2) short-term commercial bank loans (if necessary). We forecast that the company’s net interest income
will be around VND200 billion (-25% YoY).
Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017
15
• We expect that its PAT for 2017 will be VND719 billion (+31% YoY), corresponding to EPS of VND2,096.
We also think that the construction, banking, textile and port sectors are noteworthy areas for
investment. In terms of business results in Q1 2017, construction, banking, and textile companies
have delivered stronger growth as compared to last year. We believe that the overall performance
of these sectors will be stronger than 2016, as the prospects for the remaining three quarters are
also very strong. Given the strong increase in terms of stocks prices in the first four months, we
currently give a neutral recommendation for textile stocks and recommend investors to
accumulate stocks in the remaining industries.
Newly listed stocks have been attracting the attention of investors over the last few years. Rong
Viet Research would like to introduce several stocks which have been recently listed or under the
procedure to be listed in the future.
CTCP Siam Brother (SBG – HSX)
• CTCP Siam Brother (SBG) was approved to be listed and will begin trading on the HSX (20.54 million shares) at VND
40,000/share this month (16/5/2017).
• Siam Brother is a longtime brand (over 50 years) in rope production and distribution in Thailand. The company started to
penetrate Vietnam’s market in 199, and currently accounts for 40% of the market. Siam Brother is leading the market with 2.5
times the scale of company in 2nd
position.
• SBG’s business results grew continuously, even during Vietnam’s economic downturn. During 2012 – 2016, revenue and profit
after tax of SBG achieved CARG of 12.0% and 22.6% respectively. The company’s profit margin has gradually improved and is
currently at a high level. The company’s gross margin and net margin for 2016 were 42.5% and 22.4% respectively.
• Existing factories reached the maximum designed capacity. The company’s new factory is projected to have capacity of 3,000
tons/year, equivalent to 30% of current capacity and will begin operating in July of 2017.
• With ample room for growth from the agriculture market, and its increased focus on exports, RongViet Research expects the
demand prospects to be positive. In 2017, SBG targets to achieve VND601.28 billion in revenue and VND 149.77 billion in PAT,
equivalent to EPS of VND6,000. Furthermore, SBG has an attractive cash dividend (nearly 10%).
Loc Troi Group
• Loc Troi, formerly known as An Giang Plant Protection Joint Stock Company, was established in 1993 and was equitized in
September 2004 with chartered capital of VND150 billion. Currently, the company has a chartered capital of VND672 billion
and is targeting a vertical agricultural value chain, with its three main segments including pesticides, rice and seeds. The
Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017
16
company’s pesticide segment has been maintaining a strong growth rate and a gross margin of 31% - 33%, well above the
sector average of 24.6%. The company’s seed segment is still fairly stable with a gross margin of 35%, despite strong
competition from the NSC. The only segment that is struggling is its rice segment, due to the unfinished production value
chain and unfavorable weather conditions.
• In 2017, Loc Troi plans to achieve revenue growth of 6.5%, equivalent to VND8,857 billion, which will primarily be driven by
its plant and medicine segment, while it expects for its rice segment to experience negative growth. We expect that the
company’s pesticides and seeds segments will achieve positive growth. The company plans for its PBT and PAT to reach
VND597 billion (+28.7% YoY) and VND460 billion (+31.8% YoY). According to this plan, EPS in FY2017 will be VND5,822 (+32%
YoY). We think that this plan is quite ambitious due to (1) unfavorable weather conditions, its incomplete value chain, and
new business lines that have not been implemented. Unfavorable weather conditions are a key negative factor for this
company, as seen by rice exports falling by 8% YoY during the first four months of this year.
• There are 3 highlights of the company’s FY2017 business plan. (1) Loc Troi will sign a joint venture with China to export rice to
this market in May 2017. (2) The company will develop a value chain in fruit trees with HAG after its initiation in 3 western
provinces, including Tien Giang, Ben Tre and Vinh Long. (3) Finally, Loc Troi will also begin growing coffee, as it has been doing
with rice products since 2010. The company’s fruit tree and coffee projects will take Loc Troi a very long time to implement,
and it will take time before they begin to significantly impact its business.
• 67 million shares of Loc Troi might be listed on UPCOM by the end of this May. Changes in shareholder structure, namely a
new major shareholder of Viet Nam Marina Ltd, has just received a 25.5% transfer from Standard Charter Private Equity, which
may be a sign for this listing.
• Currently, there aren’t many shares in the agribusiness and Loc Troi is a notable one as it is targeting a vertical value chain in
this sector. Although Loc Troi plant protection products are comparatively favorable to its competitors, its rice and seed
products are still in the process of improvement. Although there are many companies working in the same fields (food and
seedlings) with Loc Troi, their firm size is relatively small, and has a low product value, and undefined brand and output. Loc
Troi has the ability to take advantage of its chain to promote its competitive advantages.
• The company’s forward P/E at present is 9.9 times, based on its growth plans and current OTC price. We hold the view that
Loc Troi’s shares are undervalued. However, investors should note that the investment period should be long term, and it will
take a long time for the company to put its agribusiness chain into operation
• In addition, there are some risks to investing in Loc Troi shares such as: (1) objective factors in the industry such as weather
and diseases (2) risk of instability in agricultural policy, and (3) many product value chains that are deployed at the same time
but are not yet effective.
In addition, the correction of the market in the month will also be the opportunity to accumulate
stocks for long-term investment objectives. RongViet Research’s favorite stocks are those with
leading role in their industry or those in sectors that expect to see positive changes in the recovery
of the economy or the supportive of policies.
Figure 17: RongViet Research’s stock pick
Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017
17
Source: RongViet Research; Price @ May 5th
, 2017
Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 18
Ticker Exchange
Target
price
(VND)
Price @
May 5th
(VND)
Upside
(%)
Rating Time horizon
2016 2017F 2018F
PER
Trailing
(x)
PER
2017F
(x)
PBR
Cur.
(x)
Div
Yield
(x)
+/-
Price
1y (%)
3M avg.
daily vol.
(‘1000
shares)
3M avg. daily
turnover
(USD thousand)
Market
cap
(USD
mn)
Foreign
remaining
room
(%)
+/-
Rev.
(%)
+/-
NPAT
(%)
+/-
Rev.
(%)
+/-
NPAT
(%)
+/-
Rev.
(%)
+/-
NPAT
(%)
ACV UPCOM 67,000 49,100 36.5 Buy Long-term 21.1 198.2 16.2 -20.1 17.1 26.3 31.0 22.3 4.3 1.0 0.0 287 644 4,699 45.6
FPT HSX 63,500 47,100 34.8 Buy Long-term 4.1 3.1 23.6 32.9 15.0 32.4 10.5 8.2 2.2 4.2 18.5 988 2,014 955 -
ITD HSX 33,900 25,400 33.5 Buy Intermediate-term 57.5 137.8 19.9 19.0 N/a N/a 7.3 6.0 1.6 2.4 47.3 136 162 21 31.9
TNG HNX 17,000 12,800 32.8 Buy Intermediate-term -1.9 13.9 17.0 16.5 10.5 11.1 5.3 5.3 0.8 0.0 -28.9 128 76 19 26.5
PHP HNX 20,800 15,700 32.5 Buy Intermediate-term 2.2 3.9 -0.6 6.5 8.0 9.6 11.6 11.9 1.5 5.1 -21.6 6 5 226 48.6
VSC HSX 73,700 56,500 30.4 Buy Long-term 16.6 -10.0 18.2 23.8 6.0 9.6 10.3 9.2 1.8 6.2 11.9 121 313 113 -
DRC HSX 35,900 28,150 27.5 Accumulate Long-term 1.3 -4.8 17.4 -1.3 14.4 7.9 8.9 9.3 2.0 8.0 -15.1 373 513 147 18.3
PC1 HSX 48,000 38,100 26.0 Accumulate Long-term -3.0 24.1 13.4 3.7 48.1 93.6 10.4 12.7 1.4 0.0 0.0 193 328 126 24.0
VIT HNX 36,000 28,800 25.0 Accumulate Long-term 41.6 53.5 17.8 18.4 33.4 25.7 7.1 6.7 1.9 5.2 25.8 35 46 19 46.2
HPG HSX 36,000 29,200 23.3 Accumulate Long-term 21.2 89.4 30.7 13.2 19.4 4.4 4.9 5.3 1.2 0.0 48.5 4,229 7,049 1,622 12.3
PTB HSX 153,600 125,200 22.7 Accumulate Long-term 20.2 52.8 25.6 25.5 16.1 9.8 10.0 9.1 3.6 0.0 29.5 68 396 119 37.8
PVT HSX 15,400 12,700 21.3 Accumulate Long-term 16.9 12.9 6.2 1.3 10.6 10.0 8.0 9.0 1.0 7.9 28.9 745 424 157 23.8
REE HSX 35,500 29,300 21.2 Accumulate Long-term 38.4 28.2 23.1 19.0 6.4 13.7 6.8 7.7 1.3 1.7 50.5 1,222 1,468 399 -
VFG HSX 90,700 74,900 21.1 Accumulate Long-term 13.4 5.2 9.6 16.2 6.1 7.6 9.8 9.0 1.7 1.3 21.0 10 32 60 27.7
CTD HSX 237,700 200,500 18.6 Accumulate Long-term 52.0 113.5 30.4 22.2 9.9 9.8 9.3 9.5 2.4 2.7 60.5 193 1,679 678 5.1
CTG HSX 21,000 17,750 18.3 Accumulate Long-term 16.3 20.0 8.2 17.3 7.4 14.5 9.6 8.2 1.1 3.9 10.8 1,600 1,289 2,904 -
BFC HSX 41,000 35,000 17.1 Accumulate Long-term -1.6 21.0 17.8 18.4 15.8 10.1 6.7 6.8 2.1 8.6 52.7 252 389 88 32.1
MBB HSX 19,400 16,700 16.2 Accumulate Long-term 12.4 16.7 16.5 16.7 7.4 18.4 9.4 9.2 1.1 1.8 21.1 1,211 812 1,257 -
VCB HSX 41,700 36,100 15.5 Accumulate Long-term 17.3 28.6 7.7 14.1 12.9 32.0 18.1 16.3 2.6 2.2 5.6 1,201 1,972 5,706 9.4
PHR HSX 30,600 26,500 15.5 Accumulate Intermediate-term -4.0 3.9 61.0 48.6 20.0 11.0 6.7 8.2 0.9 3.8 40.3 711 918 91 44.9
SHP HSX 22,800 19,800 15.2 Accumulate Intermediate-term -13.7 -40.4 19.7 78.7 -0.3 1.0 13.2 10.6 1.6 8.1 17.6 23 20 82 45.2
PGS HNX 20,900 18,200 14.8 Accumulate Intermediate-term -16.5 206.7 23.2 -65.5 9.7 9.3 9.3 7.8 0.9 6.9 14.8 418 326 40 32.8
CDN HNX 27,200 23,800 14.3 Accumulate Intermediate-term -3.5 2.1 16.0 8.9 26.9 4.3 11.4 12.2 1.8 4.2 0.0 4 4 69 48.6
BMP HSX 208,400 182,400 14.3 Neutral Long-term 18.5 20.9 11.2 7.9 13.1 10.0 15.8 13.6 3.5 4.2 30.3 75 641 364 0.3
HIGHLIGHT STOCKS
Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 19
Ticker Exchange
Target
price
(VND)
Price @
May 5th
(VND)
Upside
(%)
Rating Time horizon
2016 2017F 2018F
PER
Trailing
(x)
PER
2017F
(x)
PBR
Cur.
(x)
Div
Yield
(x)
+/-
Price
1y (%)
3M avg.
daily vol.
(‘1000
shares)
3M avg. daily
turnover
(USD thousand)
Market
cap
(USD
mn)
Foreign
remaining
room
(%)
+/-
Rev.
(%)
+/-
NPAT
(%)
+/-
Rev.
(%)
+/-
NPAT
(%)
+/-
Rev.
(%)
+/-
NPAT
(%)
NNC HSX 90,100 79,500 13.3 Accumulate Intermediate-term 14.9 49.8 23.5 25.7 8.1 3.4 7.1 7.6 2.9 4.1 55.6 30 100 57 28.3
VNR HNX 27,300 24,200 12.8 Neutral Long-term 0.0 -1.2 18.2 9.7 4.3 6.8 12.7 12.1 1.2 6.2 34.6 81 89 139 19.2
NT2 HSX 31,900 28,900 10.4 Neutral Long-term 18.6 -4.9 -13.2 -10.6 4.5 0.3 8.0 9.0 1.6 8.8 6.2 336 456 366 26.7
PPC HSX 19,400 17,900 8.4 Neutral Long-term -22.0 -2.2 17.7 33.0 1.8 -3.3 6.8 8.5 1.0 10.9 13.9 74 56 250 32.3
DPM HSX 25,000 23,250 7.5 Neutral Long-term -18.8 -23.3 16.4 4.9 20.5 -3.8 9.6 8.9 1.1 8.6 -12.2 1,020 1,090 400 29.5
CHP HSX 25,000 23,350 7.1 Neutral Intermediate-term -10.9 -21.5 22.2 38.1 -10.2 -10.8 7.6 8.7 1.6 6.9 0.0 130 126 129 45.6
PGI HSX 24,900 23,600 5.5 Neutral Long-term 0.0 5.2 10.3 55.5 13.2 -13.5 14.7 10.6 1.9 1.7 47.2 246 251 74 47.9
CTI HSX 31,500 29,900 5.4 Neutral Long-term 23.8 58.4 22.3 12.4 12.8 22.3 10.4 16.4 1.9 4.8 36.3 388 472 56 20.4
ACB HNX 24,500 23,500 4.3 Neutral Long-term 21.6 28.9 11.4 21.9 27.9 46.2 15.5 15.8 1.6 0.0 45.2 3,594 3,641 1,018 -
HSG HSX 51,700 49,650 4.1 Neutral Intermediate-term 16.5 145.3 31.7 -0.5 17.6 22.2 5.6 6.0 2.1 1.0 54.6 1,425 3,062 436 19.0
DNP HNX 29,600 28,500 3.9 Neutral Long-term 60.9 91.6 34.7 50.6 17.6 10.8 10.4 6.6 2.0 0.0 22.6 56 63 38 45.5
NKG HSX 46,110 44,400 3.9 Neutral Intermediate-term 55.4 310.7 62.0 29.0 14.6 10.4 4.1 4.8 1.7 0.0 150.8 383 673 129 19.3
VNM HSX 151,800 146,600 3.5 Neutral Long-term 16.8 20.3 19.9 12.1 13.4 10.9 21.0 22.6 8.6 0.3 30.4 1,292 7,808 9,348 45.2
PNJ HSX 97,300 94,800 2.6 Neutral Long-term 11.1 195.8 21.7 43.3 13.1 21.4 16.2 15.6 5.3 1.1 68.4 210 778 409 -
SVC HSX 54,500 53,700 1.5 Neutral Long-term 38.0 18.4 11.2 20.4 -5.0 4.5 10.9 10.1 1.5 3.0 56.8 117 258 59 7.5
TCM HSX 25,300 26,000 -2.7 Neutral Long-term 10.0 -25.6 6.2 55.6 1.9 7.4 9.1 8.5 1.3 1.9 -0.9 673 630 56 -
VGC HNX 14,600 15,200 -3.9 Neutral Long-term 4.1 56.4 7.9 17.3 13.6 9.1 7.7 8.2 1.1 4.6 0.0 301 202 205 39.9
PAC HSX 36,800 38,500 -4.4 Neutral Long-term 8.2 34.1 19.4 0.5 12.4 10.5 14.9 15.9 3.2 4.7 48.7 214 337 79 20.7
HT1 HSX 21,200 22,200 -4.5 Neutral Long-term 8.3 9.5 6.6 13.7 5.2 6.7 10.7 10.8 1.6 0.0 -4.2 398 380 372 39.9
VJC HSX 121,000 131,000 -7.6 Neutral Long-term 38.6 113.3 41.7 24.9 22.0 25.2 15.6 13.6 8.2 1.1 0.0 550 3,110 1,839 3.9
GMD HSX 33,000 36,050 -8.5 Reduce Intermediate-term 4.3 -3.1 11.2 23.7 22.3 26.8 15.8 22.1 1.2 5.5 35.4 1,074 1,587 284 19.1
IMP HSX 54,900 60,100 -8.7 Neutral Long-term 4.8 8.9 24.6 33.5 18.4 17.8 16.9 19.5 1.7 3.3 41.4 56 152 103 -
DHG HSX 125,400 140,000 -10.4 Reduce Long-term 4.9 20.6 12.4 10.0 9.7 9.2 16.7 17.9 4.0 1.1 72.0 111 636 536 -
SAB HSX 158,400 199,300 -20.5 Sell Long-term 12.6 31.3 11.2 4.2 12.9 4.2 27.5 29.2 10.2 1.0 0.0 73 675 5,615 39.2
MWG HSX 134,500 172,000 -21.8 Sell Intermediate-term 76.7 47.2 63.2 41.4 35.9 16.5 14.9 14.2 6.0 0.9 123.4 184 1,371 1,162 -
Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 20
APPENDIX: LIST OF COMPANIES PAYING DIVIDEND IN MAY
Ticker Ex-dividend date Payment date Exchange Close Price Cash Dividend Dividend Yield Stock Dividend
VE4 5/18/2017 6/20/2017 HNX 14,600 2,000 14%
PPY 5/4/2017 6/1/2017 HNX 13,000 1,600 12%
PBP 5/15/2017 5/20/2017 HNX 14,200 1,500 11%
HMC 5/15/2017 5/31/2017 HSX 10,700 1,100 10%
VC1 5/23/2017 6/30/2017 HNX 19,500 2,000 10%
EBS 5/4/2017 5/25/2017 HNX 8,800 900 10%
PSC 5/4/2017 6/2/2017 HNX 13,500 1,350 10%
NBC 5/12/2017 6/29/2017 HNX 6,600 550 8%
LHG 5/9/2017 5/31/2017 HSX 21,650 1,500 7%
NCT 5/12/2017 6/9/2017 HSX 87,900 6,000 7%
PJC 5/3/2017 5/18/2017 HNX 17,200 1,100 6%
BHT 5/8/2017 5/18/2017 HNX 2,700 150 6%
PSE 5/12/2017 6/5/2017 HNX 12,600 700 6%
TVD 5/18/2017 6/9/2017 HNX 5,900 300 5%
SRF 5/4/2017 5/22/2017 HSX 27,200 1,200 4%
GDT 5/10/2017 5/24/2017 HSX 62,000 2,500 4%
FTS 5/8/2017 6/9/2017 HSX 13,700 500 4% 10%
HCM 5/15/2017 6/7/2017 HSX 32,900 1,200 4% 50%
TMC 5/10/2017 5/25/2017 HNX 13,800 500 4%
CLC 5/4/2017 5/26/2017 HSX 59,300 2,000 3%
INN 5/9/2017 5/26/2017 HNX 64,000 2,000 3%
TDW 5/11/2017 5/29/2017 HSX 25,000 700 3%
SGC 5/11/2017 5/23/2017 HNX 47,300 1,200 3%
DHG 5/4/2017 5/17/2017 HSX 140,000 3,500 3%
DXG 5/15/2017 6/29/2017 HSX 22,450 500 2% 13%
VNC 5/12/2017 6/15/2017 HNX 36,500 800 2%
VFG 5/3/2017 5/19/2017 HSX 74,900 1,500 2%
VNM 5/4/2017 5/22/2017 HSX 146,600 2,000 1%
SMA 5/9/2017 6/12/2017 HSX 8,000 100 1%
VJC 5/9/2017 5/30/2017 HSX 129,800 1,000 1%
TV2 5/24/2017 6/26/2017 HNX 215,000 1,000 0% 15%
Source: FiinPro, RongViet Research *Close price and dividend yield as of 5/5/2017
Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 21
MACRO WATCH
Headline Inflation Steadied In April Slight Recovery In Retail Sales
Source: GSO, RongViet Research Source: GSO, RongViet Research
Manufacturing Remained Strong Exports Growth Surprised On The Upside
Source: GSO, RongViet Research Source: GSO, RongViet Research
Resilient FDI Flows Government Bonds Become More Attractive
Source: FII, RongViet Research Source: VBMA, RongViet Research
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
01/2016
02/2016
03/2016
04/2016
05/2016
06/2016
07/2016
08/2016
09/2016
10/2016
11/2016
12/2016
01/2017
02/2017
03/2017
04/2017
Headline inflation Core inflation
240000
260000
280000
300000
320000
340000
0%
4%
8%
12%
01/2016
02/2016
03/2016
04/2016
05/2016
06/2016
07/2016
08/2016
09/2016
10/2016
11/2016
12/2016
01/2017
02/2017
03/2017
04/2017
Retail Sales (VND B) Growth (Ex-inflation)
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
01/2016
02/2016
03/2016
04/2016
05/2016
06/2016
07/2016
08/2016
09/2016
10/2016
11/2016
12/2016
01/2017
02/2017
03/2017
04/2017
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
PMI IP (3m moving average)
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
01/2016
02/2016
03/2016
04/2016
05/2016
06/2016
07/2016
08/2016
09/2016
10/2016
11/2016
12/2016
01/2017
02/2017
03/2017
04/2017
Export Import
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
01/2016
02/2016
03/2016
04/2016
05/2016
06/2016
07/2016
08/2016
09/2016
10/2016
11/2016
12/2016
01/2017
02/2017
03/2017
04/2017
Implemented capital Registered capital
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
01/2016
02/2016
03/2016
04/2016
05/2016
06/2016
07/2016
08/2016
09/2016
10/2016
11/2016
12/2016
01/2017
02/2017
03/2017
Winning volume
Offering volume
Winning/Offering Ratio
Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 22
INDUSTRY INDEX
Level 1 industry movement Level 2 industry movement
Source: RongViet Research Source: RongViet Research
Industry PE comparison Industry PB comparison
Source: RongViet Research Source: RongViet Research
-1% -2%
-10%
-1%
1% 2%
-3%
0%
-1%
2%
Technology
Industrials
Oil&Gas
ConsumerServices
HealthCare
ConsumerGoods
Banks
BasicMaterials
Financials
Utilities
-1%
-3%
0%
-1%
-10%
-4%
2%
-2%
1%
5%
2%
-3%
2%
-1%
1%
5%
-2%
1%
Retail
Insurance
Real Estate
Technology
Oil & Gas
Financial Services
Utilities
Travel & Leisure
Industrial Goods & Services
Personal & Household Goods
Chemicals
Banks
Automobiles & Parts
Basic Resources
Food & Beverage
Media
Construction & Materials
Health Care
11.6
15.1 15.2
13.5
16.4
18.1
14.4
7.5
20.1
12.7
16.9
11.5
Technology
Industrials
Oil&Gas
Consumer
Services
HealthCare
Consumer
Goods
Banks
BasicMaterials
Financials
Utilities
HSX
HNX
2.0
3.7
0.6
4.5
3.5
5.5
1.6
1.3
2.8
2.3
3.8
1.6
Technology
Industrials
Oil&Gas
ConsumerServices
HealthCare
ConsumerGoods
Banks
BasicMaterials
Financials
Utilities
HSX
HNX
Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 23
DISCLAIMERS
This report is prepared in order to provide information and analysis to clients of Rong Viet Securities only. It is and
should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities. No consideration
has been given to the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific. The readers
should be aware that Rong Viet Securities may have a conflict of interest that can compromise the objectivity this
research. This research is to be viewed by investors only as a source of reference when making investments.
Investors are to take full responsibility of their own decisions. VDSC shall not be liable for any loss, damages, cost
or expense incurring or arising from the use or reliance, either full or partial, of the information in this publication.
The opinions expressed in this research report reflect only the analyst's personal views of the subject securities or
matters; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the
specific recommendations or opinions expressed in the report.
The information herein is compiled by or arrived at Rong Viet Securities from sources believed to be reliable. We,
however, do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimations and projections expressed in this
report are deemed valid up to the date of publication of this report and can be subject to change without notice.
This research report is copyrighted by Rong Viet Securities. All rights reserved. Therefore, copy, reproduction,
republish or redistribution by any person or party for any purpose is strictly prohibited without the written
permission of VDSC.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES FOR U.S. PERSONS
This research report was prepared by Viet Dragon Securities Corp. (“VDSC”), a company authorized to engage in
securities activities in Vietnam. VDSC is not a registered broker-dealer in the United States and, therefore, is not
subject to U.S. rules regarding the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. This
research report is provided for distribution to “major U.S. institutional investors” in reliance on the exemption from
registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”).
Any U.S. recipient of this research report wishing to effect any transaction to buy or sell securities or related financial
instruments based on the information provided in this research report should do so only through Rosenblatt
Securities Inc., 40 Wall Street 59th Floor, New York, NY 10005, a registered broker dealer in the United States. Under
no circumstances should any recipient of this research report effect any transaction to buy or sell securities or
related financial instruments through VDSC. Rosenblatt Securities Inc. accepts responsibility for the contents of
this research report, subject to the terms set out below, to the extent that it is delivered to a U.S. person other than
a major U.S. institutional investor.
The analyst whose name appears in this research report is not registered or qualified as a research analyst with the
Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) and may not be an associated person of Rosenblatt Securities Inc.
and, therefore, may not be subject to applicable restrictions under FINRA Rules on communications with a subject
company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest
Rosenblatt Securities Inc. or its affiliates does not ‘beneficially own,’ as determined in accordance with Section 13(d)
of the Exchange Act, 1% or more of any of the equity securities mentioned in the report. Rosenblatt Securities Inc,
its affiliates and/or their respective officers, directors or employees may have interests, or long or short positions,
and may at any time make purchases or sales as a principal or agent of the securities referred to herein. Rosenblatt
Securities Inc. is not aware of any material conflict of interest as of the date of this publication.
Compensation and Investment Banking Activities
Rosenblatt Securities Inc. or any affiliate has not managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the
subject company in the past 12 months, nor received compensation for investment banking services from the
subject company in the past 12 months, neither does it or any affiliate expect to receive, or intends to seek
compensation for investment banking services from the subject company in the next 3 months.
Additional Disclosures
This research report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. This
research report has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any
specific recipient, even if sent only to a single recipient. This research report is not guaranteed to be a complete
statement or summary of any securities, markets, reports or developments referred to in this research report.
Neither VDSC nor any of its directors, officers, employees or agents shall have any liability, however arising, for any
error, inaccuracy or incompleteness of fact or opinion in this research report or lack of care in this research report’s
preparation or publication, or any losses or damages which may arise from the use of this research report.
Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 24
VDSC may rely on information barriers, such as “Chinese Walls” to control the flow of information within the areas,
units, divisions, groups, or affiliates of VDSC.
Investing in any non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments (including ADRs) discussed in this research
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Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and no representation or warranty, express or
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or value of the investments to which this research report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against
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Rong Viet Securities - Investment Strategy Report May 2017

  • 1. Afterreachingitspeakof731.33points,theVNIndexexperiencedanadjustmentperiodfor2weekswith a decrease of 3.2%. The difficulty of the index increasing was apparent after large-cap stocks stopped leading the market during late March 2017, following the strong surge in the first quarter of this year. We believe that geopolitical factors were the main catalyst for the aggressive profit takingactivities last month. Credit growthdramatically improved inQ12017. This movement surprised us because capital demand is usually low during the first quarter. As the results, it is possible that a part of credit flew to the stock market.Asaresult,liquidity successfully increased overthe first4monthsof2017,achieving anaverage of VND3,818 billion/session (+38% YoY). When manufacturing production is promoted from Q2 2017, consumers will borrow more from banks, and the capital for the stock exchange could gradually decline. Based on this, we expect that flows from foreign investors will continue to be poured into Vietnam’s stock exchanges. The market may further open up due to the additional room created from Pakistan being promoted to an emerging market this month, allowing Vietnam to take over some of this space. The classic statement “Sell in May” has been a frequently supported idea, which will continue to create a cautious sentiment for investors. Moreover, the annual general meeting season passed, and a large number of companies have announced Q1 business results. Therefore, the overall picture of business prospects for listed companies is quite clear at this moment, as a large amount of information has been announced during AGMs. After this period, there will be less supporting information for companies. Meanwhile, sudden global movements could continue to negatively impact Vietnam’s stock market. Therefore, we believe that May will be a favorable period for the market. However, the business results released in the first quarter may not immediately influence stock prices. Firms with a bright outlook in the remaining quarters of the year will still be able to maintain a fair price or reasonable price increase. We expect the VNIndex to fluctuate between 705 and 730 points with an average trading volume of around VND3,800 billion. In May, the domestic macroeconomic environment may not have much supporting news. Although the probability of a negative downturn is not high, we still do not advise investors to use margin during this period. . Analysis and Investment Advisory Truc Doan – Head of Research truc.dtt@vdsc.com.vn Ha My Tran my.tth@vdsc.com.vn Lam Nguyen lam.ntp@vdsc.com.vn Thien Bui thien.bv@vdsc.com.vn Hieu Nguyen hieu.nd@vdsc.com.vn Quang Vo quang.vv@vdsc.com.vn Huong Pham huong.pt@vdsc.com.vn Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosure Viet Dragon Securities Corp. (“VDSC”) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. VDSC research is prepared by researchanalysts whoare not registeredin the USA. VDSC research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by Rosenblatt Securities Inc, an SEC registered and FINRA-member broker- dealer. 620 650 680 710 740 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 20/01 10/02 24/02 10/03 24/03 10/04 24/04 Trading Volume (mil. shares) VNINdex (right axis) 07/05/2017 Investment Strategy May 2017 Optimistic Q1 2017 Earnings Season
  • 2. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 2 CONTENTS WORLD ECONOMY................................................................................................................................................................................ 3 US: The Economy Lost Some Steam in Q1..........................................................................................................................................................................3 EU: Growth Outlook Remains Intact.....................................................................................................................................................................................4 China: Q1 GDP Growth Signaled a Better Outlook..........................................................................................................................................................4 WORLD STOCK MARKETS..................................................................................................................................................................... 5 VIETNAM ECONOMY ............................................................................................................................................................................ 6 2017 Trade Outlook: Better Growth but Higher Deficit.................................................................................................................................................6 Industries Outlook from a Macro Perspective...................................................................................................................................................................7 VIETNAM STOCK MARKET APRIL: ONE CORRECTION PHASE DOSE NOT CHANGE THE BIG PICTURE........................................... 9 STOCK MARKET OUTLOOKS ..............................................................................................................................................................12 INVESTMENT STRATEGY....................................................................................................................................................................13 Based on these observations of the market, we believe that “surfing” or short-term investments contain higher levels of risk. Instead, investors should focus on companies with solid intermediate and long term plans. Based on the Q1 2017 earnings of listed companies, an 8% YTD increase of the VNIndex is totally justified. Most companies recorded strong growth in profit not only from core businesses, but also extraordinary profits such as property sales and divestitures. Moreover, a large number of companies in certain sectors recovered from the previous bottom experienced. We recognize that businesses are gradually improving along with positive macroeconomic data, which provides a positive outlook for 2017. Furthermore, a statistical survey of 2017 business plans after annual general meeting season also demonstrated a positive picture for the market, as half of the companies projected revenue to increase by more than 10% YoY. Some of Rong Viet Research’s favorite sectors include construction, building materials, consumer good, hydropower and banking. In spite of being the trough season, Q1 2017 business results from building materials companies, including stones and ceramic tiles, recorded impressive growth rates. To be more specific, profit after tax of several notable companies such as KSB, DHC, NNC and VIT improved by 83.4%, 58.0%, 7.1% and 83% YoY, respectively thanks to the improvement in output and business efficiency. The higher level of activity in the construction and real estate market in Q2 2017 will be a catalyst for positive growth of earnings for these sectors, as compared to previous quarters. The probability of Tan Dong Hiep and Nui Nho quarries receiving an extension for 2 – 3 years has significantly improved, with a major consensus (93%) of local citizens. In addition to this, companies are also looking for new mines, acquiring others in the same industry (KSB, C32) and increasing capacity in existing quarries (DHA, KSB, NNC). Regarding VIT, the acquisition and renovation of My Duc brick factory will be a solution for its bottleneck issues, and providing strong future growth prospects for this year and the following year. Investment opportunities for DHA, NNC and VIT in the intermediate term are favorable. Hydropower is also worth considering for intermediate-term investment objectives for the following reasons: (1) The interference between La Nina and El Nino caused high demand for electricity while bringing unseasonal rains in the Mid-Central, Central Highlands and the South. This resulted in high volume from hydropower during the first four months of 2017. Most hydropower plants recorded strong growth in profit, higher than the multi-year average and exceptionally high compared to the same period in 2016. Although there are many comments regarding the possibility of El Nino’s return in the second half of 2017, we think that this event will not be a significant area of concern, especially since the rainy season of the South began earlier; (2) In the first quarter of 2017, electricity consumption growth reached 8.3% YoY. In Q2 2017, the growth rate will be 12%, according to EVN's plan; and (3) The rising input price of thermal power plants (coal and gas) will enhance the advantage for hydropower plants in the CGM. Our favorite hydro plants are CHP, SHP, and VSH. However, the low level of liquidity is the major disadvantage that investors should pay attention to when investing in hydropower stocks. Instead, we think that REE might be a more suitable option with its current hydropower portfolio. We also think that the construction, banking, textile and port sectors are noteworthy areas for investment. In terms of business results in Q1 2017, construction, banking, and textile companies have delivered stronger growth as compared to last year. We believe that the overall performance of these sectors will be stronger than 2016, as the prospects for the remaining three quarters are also very strong. Given the strong increase in terms of stocks prices in the first four months, we currently give a neutral recommendation for textile stocks and recommend investors to accumulate stocks in the remaining industries. HIGHLIGHT STOCKS............................................................................................................................................................................18 49 stocks of RongViet Research (analyzing, discussing with companies) and have analysis and specific evaluation in “Company report” or “Analyst pinboard”.
  • 3. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 3 WORLD ECONOMY • US: The Economy Lost Some Steam in Q1 • EU: Growth Outlook Remains Intact • China: Q1 GDP Growth Signals a Better Outlook In the first quarter of 2017, the economic growth of Asian countries outpaced the EU and US. Thanks to the recovery of the manufacturing sector and increased global demand, we expect that the growth momentum willstrengthenor atleastremain firm inthe upcoming quartersofthisyear.The monetary policies of major central banks appear to be in line with market expectations. Moreover, the uncertainty in global trade policy has also eased. The USD is set to decline because political drivers have failed to boost it and the US wants a weaker USD. We expect that the CNY will depreciate due to structural outflow pressures, while the fall in GBP and EUR will be much more limited, according to HSBC’s forecast. US: The Economy Lost Some Steam in Q1 In the first quarter of 2017, the economy expanded at the slowest pace in three years. The economy grew at 0.7% this quarter, below expectations of 1.1%. The deceleration in growth was mostly a result of weak consumption, which offset the rise in investment in housing and oil drilling and the rise in exports. Specifically, the dismal performance among US households was largely associated with lower auto sales and home-heating bills, and seasonal effects. As a result, the growth in private consumption decelerated abruptly from 3.5% in the last quarter of last year to 0.3% in Q1 2017. Meanwhile, fixed investments accelerated to a five year high (10.4% in Q1). The pickup in global demand also supported export growth, which experienced a 5.8% increase compared to a 4.5% drop in Q4 2016. Despite the deceleration in the economy being larger than expected, the US. Central Bank expects this downturn to be temporary. The FED now expects economic growth to range between 1.7%-2.3% in 2017. In the third FOMC meeting held on the 2nd-3rd of May, the FED decided to leave its interest rates unchanged. The decision was broadly in line with market expectations, and the likelihood for an interest rate hike at the next meeting in June is 78.8%, according to the FedWatchTool. At the end of April, President Trump unveiled a tax cut plan for individuals and businesses. At the moment, there are still many unanswered questions about the feasibility of this plan. However, it seems that the Trump administration has now been able to support growth and has been less aggressive in trade protectionism. Figure 1: US GDP Growth (Unit: %) Figure 2: Rate Hike Probability Historical for the next meeting Source: Bloomberg Source: CMEGroup -1.2 4 5 2.3 2 2.6 2 0.9 0.8 1.4 3.5 2.1 0.7 Q12014 Q22014 Q32014 Q42014 Q12015 Q22015 Q32015 Q42015 Q12016 Q22016 Q32016 Q42016 Q12017 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 05/04/2016 05/20/2016 06/08/2016 06/24/2016 07/13/2016 07/29/2016 08/16/2016 09/01/2016 09/20/2016 10/06/2016 10/24/2016 11/09/2016 11/28/2016 12/14/2016 01/03/2017 01/20/2017 02/07/2017 02/24/2017 03/14/2017 03/30/2017 04/18/2017
  • 4. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 4 EU: Growth Outlook Remains Intact The Eurozone recorded a 1.9% YoY growth rate in Q1 2017, which was in line with market expectations. Growth was strong in markets such as Austria, Belgium and Spain, while economic activities lost some momentum in France during political events. The outlook of the region as a whole is stable with a strong labor market and a brighter global demand. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.5%, the lowest rate since May 2009 and lower than the average of 10% in 2016. Moreover, there is widespread optimism among firms in the manufacturing sector, highlighted by the multi-year high PMI data in April. In the latest meeting, the ECB decided to hold interest rates and made no changes in its bond- buying programs. At the moment, there is a strong consensus that the ECB will keep the policy rate unchanged at the current level of 0% to support economic growth. Figure 3: EU GDP Growth Figure 4: Improving Sentiment Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg China: Q1 GDP Growth Signaled a Better Outlook China’s GDP grew at an above-consensus 6.9% YoY in the first quarter of 2017 thanks to the marked recovery in investment and manufacturing. Industrial production rose 7.6% in March of 2017, accelerating from the 6.6% rise in the first two months of 2017. This was above market expectations and was the fastest growth since 2014. Simultaneously, fixed asset investments expanded 9.2% annually in the first 3 months experiencing the strongest growth in 10 months. Notably, manufacturing investment recovered after six years of decline. Export growth reached 8.2% YoY in Q1, a swift turnaround from the 7.7% decline in 2016. Because the recovery is spreading from manufacturing to private investments and exports, we expect that the economic outlook will improve in 2017. Figure 5: China GDP Growth and Manufacturing PMI Figure 6: FAI Investment Growth Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2016 2017 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 04/16 05/16 06/16 07/16 08/16 09/16 10/16 11/16 12/16 01/17 02/17 03/17 Consumer Confidence Business Confidence 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.1 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 01/13 04/13 07/13 10/13 01/14 04/14 07/14 10/14 01/15 04/15 07/15 10/15 01/16 04/16 07/16 10/16 01/17 GDP PMI 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 11.0% 01/16 03/16 04/16 05/16 06/16 07/16 08/16 09/16 10/16 11/16 12/16 01/17 03/17 04/17
  • 5. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 5 WORLD STOCK MARKETS Figure 7: Performances of Major Global Stock Market Indices in April Source: Bloomberg, RongViet Research World stock markets in April were largely influenced by geopolitical tensions over Syria, North Korea and Afghanistan in the first two weeks, and only really flourished after candidate Emmanuel Marcon European Union support school) won the first round of the French presidential election. The US market was supported by positive expectations regarding President Trump's new tax policy package, along with a slew of positive earnings reports. By the end of the month, the Dow Jones and S&P500 gained 1.34% and 0.91% respectively, while the Nasdaq kept climbing for the sixth consecutive month. Global investors are looking to France, due to the country’s presidential election. The performance of stock markets in this country suggested that there isn’t likely another “Fraxit” ahead. The market sentiment was calm and tilted to the possibility that the next President would be Emmanuel Macron, who supported France staying in the EU. Except for the FTSE 100 of the UK, which fell 1.62% due to the unclear moves of Brexit, other indices such as CAC 40 and DAX were up from the closing price at the end of March. The markets in Asia have been similar to other world markets, except China, although it is sending a positive signal from Q1 GDP growth. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.54%. The reason for this is that investors are concerned that the Chinese government is increasingly tightening risk controls in the country's financial system, especially in the recent times when there are many warnings about the heat of the real estate market in this country. Other neighboring countries, such as Japan and South Korea, recorded a recovery in the second half of April (Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng rose 1.52% and 1.09%, respectively). It is worth mentioning that the South Korean Kospi Index rose in spite of severe geopolitical tensions between North Korea and the United States. This may reflect that the risk of war between the two Koreas and America is not high. This is in contrast to the Vietnamese market, where global geopolitical tensions were used to explain the downward movement of the VNIndex in April. Overall, last April was relatively "quiet" for international stock markets. Although information about the US - North Korea appears quite dense, this reason was not enough for international investors to falter in the past month. 6% 6% 15% 1% 8% 8% 0% 3% 12% 7% 9% 7% 9% 8% 12% 10% -8% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% DowJones S&P500 Nasdaq FTSE100 CAC40 DAX Nikkei225 SSE(Shanghai) HangSeng(Hongkong) TSEC(Taiwan) Kospi(Korean) JKSE(Indonesia) KLSE(Malaysia) VNIndex(Vietnam) HNX-Index(Vietnam) Gold Oil From 31/03/2017 to 28/04/2017 From 31/12/2016 to 28/04/2017
  • 6. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 6 VIETNAM ECONOMY • 2017 Trade Outlook: Better Growth but Higher Deficit • Industries Outlook from a Macro Perspective Economic activities improved in April, most notably industrial production and consumption. The manufacturing sector is the main growth driver, which is largely dependent on the FDI sector. We will provide specific assessments for a variety of manufacturing industries in the note below. During the first 4 months, banking liquidity remained stable as interbank rates remained below 5%, supporting credit growth in the economy. The SBV actively devalued the dong by adjusting the central exchange rate (0.88%). However, market exchange rates did not change much from the end of 2016, due to the weakness of the USD. Because of the dismal performance of the mining industry, we revised our GDP growth forecast from 6.58% to 6.4%. Meanwhile, the strong recovery in trade could boost trade growth above our previous forecast. As a result, we raise our export growth forecast for 2017 from 10.4% to 14.1% and import growth from 11.9% to 18%. 2017 Trade Outlook: Better Growth but Higher Deficit As we mentioned in our 2017 Strategy Report, there will be a recovery in trade despite the uncertainty in global trade policy. In the first 4 months of 2017, export growth was strong, above our expectations. Exports grew 16% YoY, much better than the growth rate of 6.7% in 2016. The improvement was mainly led by processing exports, such as electrical products (+45.5% YoY), machinery (+42.6% YoY), which displays the relatively positive performance of the FDI sector. Samsung’s operations had significant impacts on Vietnam’s exports. The abnormal growth of electrical products was due to Samsung Electronics HCMC CE Complex project, which began operating in June 2016. Meanwhile, negative growth in cellphone exports (-6% YoY) was an abnormal case, resulting from the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 crisis. Export performance of domestic companies improved during the first 4 months of 2017, with a growth of 13.1% thanks to higher commodity prices. However, one of our most significant concerns is the imbalance in domestic trade. Imports grew 23% YoY, a dramatic gain from 0.3% in 2016. As a result, there was a deficit of ~USD7.9 billion in domestic trade in the first 4 months of 2017, a 53.4% YoY increase. Performance of Vietnam’s exports to other markets varied substantially. Asian countries were the main drivers for export growth, while exports to the EU and US (key export partners of Vietnam) were not very encouraging in the first 4 months. Most notably, exports to China grew 45.1% YoY, equivalent to USD8.6 billion; exports to the US only grew 3.7% YoY (~USD11.9 billion). Figure 8: Trade Growth Recovered in The First 4 Months Figure 9: Trade Growth by Key Partners Source: Customs, RongViet Research Source: Customs, RongViet Research -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 01/2016 02/2016 03/2016 04/2016 05/2016 06/2016 07/2016 08/2016 09/2016 10/2016 11/2016 12/2016 01/2017 02/2017 03/2017 04/2017 Export Import US: $11.9 bn (+3.7% YoY) EU: $11.3 bn (+8.8% YoY) China: $8.6 bn (+45.1% YoY) ASEAN: $6.7 bn (+26.0% YoY) Japan: $5.2 bn (+19.3% YoY) Korea: $4.4 bn (+32.0% YoY) EXPORTS China: $17.6 bn (+19.4% YoY) Korea: $13.7 bn (+45.3% YoY) ASEAN: $8.9 bn (+20.4% YoY) Japan: $5.1 bn (+16.9% YoY) EU: $3.8 bn (+24.3% YoY) US: $3.0 bn (+23.1% YoY) IMPORTS
  • 7. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 7 Currently, we see three elements supporting the outlook of trade in 2017: 1. External outlook improving: The first meeting between President Xi and President Trump significantly reduced the risk of a head-on confrontation over trade. We think this is a good signal for not only China but also Vietnam. In addition, TPP countries kick-started discussions towards implementing the pact without the US at the beginning of May 2017. There is now hope that the TPP pact will come alive and support trade growth. Last but not least, the economic outlook of Asian countries became brighter in the first quarter of 2017, pointing to a significant improvement in demand. 2. Steadied FDI flows: Because the FDI sector has taken a great part in Vietnam trade turnovers (~70%), there is no doubt that past investments will contribute to future growth in exports. SEHC, LG Display, and LG Innotek, are some big names that could influence export growth in the short term. 3. There was a pause in the recovery of commodity prices, mainly due to the supply side. However, for commodity-exporting domestic companies, the rebound in prices in 2016 still give them room to grow on a year over year basis. Based on the above rationales, we raise our export growth forecast for 2017 from 10.4% to 14.1% and import growth from 11.9% to 18%. We estimate that the trade deficit will be $5 billion in 2017, a significant change from a surplus of $1.5 billion in 2016. Industries Outlook from a Macro Perspective The breakdown on manufacturing data displays a considerable level of discrepancy in performance for each industry in the first quarter of 2017. Production indicators that performed strongly include the following areas: steel, electrical products and cable industries. There was also very positive demand for products such as milk, fertilizers, electrical products, storage batteries, automobiles and cable industries. It is worth noting that inventory surged in the first quarter of 2017, mainly due to a sharp increase of assembled cars (Thaco Truong Hai) and the declining growth momentum in the steel industry. From a macro perspective, we expect that the mining sector will be in a more challenging phase. Crude production growth decreased by 14.5% in the first 4 months of 2017. Because the supply gut continues to weigh on oil prices as well as Vietnam’s oil operators, we adjust our 2017 GDP growth forecast from 6.58% to 6.4%. In Q1 2017, the biggest outperformers came from fiber, fertilizer, electrical products and cable industries. We think companies operating in these industries can continue to perform well. In the absence of a significant rebound in the inflation rate, we expect consumer goods companies to remain positive. In addition, the recovery in textile exports could brighten the 2017 business outlook of textile companies.
  • 8. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 8 Table 1: Manufacturing Activities by Sub-sectors in Q1 2017 Unit: % Production Growth* Consumption Growth Inventory Growth Export Growth Import Growth Rating Crude oil -14.2 Na Na 24.3 27.0 - - Natural gas, LPG -8.4 Na Na Na 37.4 ~ Fishery 3.0 10.5 13.6 7.6 34.5 ~ Milk 9.3 12.7 1.3 Na -9.6 + Sugar -2.0 -26.0 4.2 Na Na - Animal Feeds 12.1 5.1 -21.6 6.0 37.3 ~ Beer 10.3 7.8 45.4 Na Na ~ Fiber 14.2 16.0 -5.2 29.9 23.0 ++ Textile 8.8 8.5 -6.4 10.9 Na + Shoes & Leather 3.0 6.7 10.5 14.1 Na ~ Paper 7.0 8.0 32.8 Na 19.4 + Fertilizer 12.5 16.6 -46.0 68.1 21.9 ++ Pharmaceutical 4.5 2.4 3.8 Na 6.4 ~ Plastic 8.5 8.0 23.0 11.9 19.3 + Cement 7.3 1.8 92.3 6.9 Na ~ Steel 47.5 9.5 54.5 77.7 37.3 + Telephones -10.4 -27.3 49.5 -6.1 22.6 - Electrical products 23.3 29.5 14.0 45.5 11.9 ++ Storage battery 4.8 14.0 17.5 Na Na + Cable 20.8 19.6 5.2 23.7 18.7 ++ Automobile 10.9 17.2 220.8 22.5 -1.5 + Electricity 9.3 Na Na Na Na ~ Water 6.8 Na Na Na Na ~ Source: GSO, Customs, RongViet Research, *4M2017 vs 4M2016 Seriously negative Negative growth in production, consumption, significant increase in inventory - - Negative Below-average growth in production, consumption, significant increase in inventory - Neutral Production, consumption and inventory remain stable compared to the same period ~ Positive Positive growth in production, consumption, inventory remains stable + Very positive High growth in production, consumption, inventory remains stable + +
  • 9. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 9 VIETNAM STOCK MARKET APRIL: ONE CORRECTION PHASE DOSE NOT CHANGE THE BIG PICTURE The first significant correction of the market finally occurred in April. The strong profit taking coincided with various geopolitical tensions, which caused the VN-Index to plummet from 731.33 points on April 11th to 707.58 points on April 25th. However, the index gradually recovered from this decline by the end of April; the VN-Index reached 717.73 points, up 8% from the beginning of the year (7% excluding ROS), while the HNX-Index reached 89.54 points, up 11.8%. The strong increase indicates the market's high expectations for business prospects, and this time it seems the market was right. The recently announced Q1 results of 545 companies displayed a positive picture for the market. Figure 10: VN-Index movement in April Figure 11: HNX-Index movement in April Source: RongViet Research Source: RongViet Research Large and mid-cap stocks had excellent Q1 results overall. The total NPAT of 26/30 companies in the VN-30 basket delivered growth of 27%, with only six companies experiencing negative growth (BMP, DPM, KDC, MSN, NT2 and PVD). For the VN-MID basket, the figure was even more impressive. Enterprises such as PPC, DCM, HBC, PNJ, DXG, NKG, VSH, SHP, SAM, PHR, KSB, STK, PDR, and ELC delivered earnings growth from 70% to over 200% over the same period. This robust growth has justified the rally of the VN-MID since the beginning of this year. Figure 12: Revenue and NPAT Growth of the Main Index in Q1 2017 Source: FiinPro, RongViet Research *excluding CII and STG 680 700 720 740 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 20/01 10/02 24/02 10/03 24/03 10/04 24/04 Trading Volume (mil. shares) VNINdex (right axis) 79 83 87 91 95 0 30 60 90 20/01 10/02 24/02 10/03 24/03 10/04 24/04 Trading Volume (mil. shares) HNXIndex (right axis) 8.3% 17.7% 9.3% 8.0% 11.8% 20.7% 8.4% 7.9% 14.1% 10.5% 26.9% 38.1% 8.0% 27.7% 24.0% VN-30 VN-MID VN-SML HOSE HNX Performance YTD Revenue NPAT
  • 10. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 10 The financial services sector led in profitability growth. The strong activity of the stock market in Q1 has led to a sharp increase in the average daily trading value and margin lending, which in turn boosted the earnings of brokerage firms. However, these positive business results were not fully reflected in the stock price. The stock price of top brokerage firms like VND, SSI, and HCM have only increased by less than 20% YTD. However, there are still dark spots for earnings results in Q1. The operations of two oil & gas companies, PVS and especially PVD, have still not improved. PVD reported a loss for the first time since the beginning of the low oil price era in 2014. The automobile & parts sector also experienced some troubles, as HTL, HSC, TMT, DRC, SRC, CSM, and VKC all had negative growth. Meanwhile, the insurance, chemicals, and travel & leisure sectors only achieved single digit growth in earnings. Figure 13: Revenue and NPAT Growth of Sectors in Q1 2017 Source: FiinPro, RongViet Research *excluding CII and STG, which have abnormal financial income (CII: VND1,300 billion, STG: VND571 billion) The highlight of Q1 results is the improvement of the margins of companies. Although the improvement can be partly attributed to abnormal financial income of some companies, it is still a combination of good control in COGS, selling and administration expenses. Figure 14: Gross and Net Margin of Sectors in Q1 2017 Source: FiinPro, RongViet Research *excluding CII and STG -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% -100% 0% 100% 200% Retail Insurance RealEstate Technology Oil&Gas FinancialServices Utilities Travel&Leisure IndustrialGoods& Services Personal&Household Goods Chemicals Banks Automobiles&Parts BasicResources Food&Beverage Media Construction& Materials HealthCare Revenue NPAT Performance (YTD) 17.2% 18.1% 8.2% 9.2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Retail Insurance RealEstate Technology Oil&Gas FinancialServices Utilities Travel&Leisure IndustrialGoods& Services Personal&Household Goods Chemicals Banks Automobiles&Parts BasicResources Food&Beverage Media Construction&Materials HealthCare Total Gross margin Q1 2016 Gross margin Q1 2017 Net margin Q1 2016 Net margin Q1 2017
  • 11. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 11 April is a peak time in Vietnam’s stock market, with a large number of AGM sessions taking place. Our overall impression after attending the AGMs of our coverage list is fairly optimistic. Statistics for the 2017 business plans of 349 listed companies has also confirmed our view, as half of these have targeted at least 10% growth in revenue. Considering what these companies have achieved so far in Q1, the optimism seems to be reasonable. Figure 15: 2017 Revenue Plan vs 2016 Actual Revenue Source: FiinPro, RongViet Research Companies have started off on the right foot, and expect to maintain this momentum through Q2. Consequently, we retain our positive view regarding the market in Q2, but still leave room for some possible corrections down the road. We would also like to remind investors about the dividend payment schedule in May, as the dividend season has still continued. Figure 16: Foreign Investors trading in the first 4 months Source: FiinPro, RongViet Research 22% 10% 16%28% 12% 5% 3% 3% (+)30% (+)20%-30% (+)10%-20% (+)0-10% (-)0-10% (-)10%-20% (-)20%-30% (-)30% 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 03/01 21/03 Net bought/sold Accumulated Value
  • 12. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 12 STOCK MARKET OUTLOOKS After reaching its peak of 731.33 points, the VNIndex experienced an adjustment period for 2 weeks with a decrease of 3.2%. The difficulty of the index increasing was apparent after large-cap stocks stopped leading the market during late March 2017, following the strong surge in the first quarter of this year. We believe that geopolitical factors were the main catalyst for the aggressive profit taking activities last month. Credit growth dramatically improved in Q1 2017. This movement surprised us because capital demand is usually low during the first quarter. As the results, it is possible that a part of credit flew to the stock market. As a result, liquidity successfully increased over the first 4 months of 2017, achieving an average of VND3,818 billion/session (+38% YoY). When manufacturing production is promoted from Q2 2017, consumers will borrow more from banks, and the capital for the stock exchange could gradually decline. Based on this, we expect that flows from foreign investors will continue to be poured into Vietnam’s stock exchanges. The market may further open up due to the additional room created from Pakistan being promoted to an emerging market this month, allowing Vietnam to take over some of this space. The classic statement “Sell in May” has been a frequently supported idea, which will continue to create a cautious sentiment for investors. Moreover, the annual general meeting season passed, and a large number of companies have announced Q1 business results. Therefore, the overall picture of business prospects for listed companies is quite clear at this moment, as a large amount of information has been announced during AGMs. After this period, there will be less supporting information for companies. Meanwhile, sudden global movements could continue to negatively impact Vietnam’s stock market. Therefore, we believe that May will be a favorable period for the market. However, the business results released in the first quarter may not immediately influence stock prices. Firms with a bright outlook in the remaining quarters of the year will still be able to maintain a fair price or reasonable price increase. We expect the VNIndex to fluctuate between 705 and 730 points with an average trading volume of around VND3,800 billion. In May, the domestic macroeconomic environment may not have much supporting news. Although the probability of a negative downturn is not high, we still do not advise investors to use margin during this period. Table 2: Key sectors performance No Name % 1M Price Change % 3M Price Change % 12M Price Change Market Cap (VND Billion) ROA (%) ROE (%) Basic P/E P/B 1 Retail -1.3% 4.3% 90.7% 29,475 8.0% 25.1% 13.7 5.2 2 Insurance -2.7% -2.0% 9.1% 60,182 2.3% 8.7% 21.9 2.4 3 Real Estate 0.4% 9.2% 13.7% 229,278 1.6% 4.6% 20.7 3.1 4 Technology -1.3% 3.2% 18.0% 27,625 6.4% 14.0% 11.6 2.0 5 Oil & Gas -10.4% -12.5% -11.2% 15,224 1.5% 2.7% 15.2 0.6 6 Financial Services -4.2% 9.7% 7.8% 27,725 2.6% 4.9% 10.9 1.2 7 Utilities 2.1% -3.7% 14.5% 145,621 10.4% 17.2% 12.7 2.3 8 Travel & Leisure -1.8% 11.9% 2.7% 8,016 3.1% 5.0% 11.9 2.4 9 Industrial Goods & Services 0.5% 4.8% 15.1% 70,388 6.1% 11.9% 10.9 1.7 10 Personal & Household Goods 4.9% 8.3% 20.0% 27,353 8.7% 19.1% 13.0 3.2 11 Chemicals 1.7% 5.3% 5.6% 40,951 7.0% 11.8% 9.9 1.3 12 Banks -3.2% -2.7% 9.2% 341,903 0.7% 11.0% 14.4 1.6 13 Automobiles & Parts 2.0% 7.1% -4.5% 17,588 7.9% 14.8% 13.5 1.7 14 Basic Resources -0.8% 7.8% 30.2% 68,845 8.4% 20.8% 6.1 1.4 15 Food & Beverage 1.5% 2.8% 37.3% 330,368 7.6% 17.1% 18.8 5.9 16 Media 4.6% 7.6% 18.4% 2,351 5.4% 9.4% 16.5 1.8 17 Construction & Materials -2.2% 13.1% 101.9% 181,988 4.8% 13.3% 16.7 4.5 18 Health Care 1.4% 19.1% 56.3% 28,307 4.6% 9.1% 16.4 3.5 Source: RongViet Research, FiinPro
  • 13. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 13 INVESTMENT STRATEGY Based on these observations of the market, we believe that “surfing” or short-term investments contain higher levels of risk. Instead, investors should focus on companies with solid intermediate and long term plans. Based on the Q1 2017 earnings of listed companies, an 8% YTD increase of the VNIndex is totally justified. Most companies recorded strong growth in profit not only from core businesses, but also extraordinary profits such as property sales and divestitures. Moreover, a large number of companies in certain sectors recovered from the previous bottom experienced. We recognize that businesses are gradually improving along with positive macroeconomic data, which provides a positive outlook for 2017. Furthermore, a statistical survey of 2017 business plans after annual general meeting season also demonstrated a positive picture for the market, as half of the companies projected revenue to increase by more than 10% YoY. Some of Rong Viet Research’s favorite sectors include construction, building materials, consumer good, hydropower and banking. In spite of being the trough season, Q1 2017 business results from building materials companies, including stones and ceramic tiles, recorded impressive growth rates. To be more specific, profit after tax of several notable companies such as KSB, DHC, NNC and VIT improved by 83.4%, 58.0%, 7.1% and 83% YoY, respectively thanks to the improvement in output and business efficiency. The higher level of activity in the construction and real estate market in Q2 2017 will be a catalyst for positive growth of earnings for these sectors, as compared to previous quarters. The probability of Tan Dong Hiep and Nui Nho quarries receiving an extension for 2 – 3 years has significantly improved, with a major consensus (93%) of local citizens. In addition to this, companies are also looking for new mines, acquiring others in the same industry (KSB, C32) and increasing capacity in existing quarries (DHA, KSB, NNC). Regarding VIT, the acquisition and renovation of My Duc brick factory will be a solution for its bottleneck issues, and providing strong future growth prospects for this year and the following year. At the current price level, investment opportunities for DHA, NNC and VIT in the intermediate term are favorable. Stock picks Target price Horizon Investment Thesis DHA N/a Intermediate • We expect that consumption at its main quarry, Thanh Phu, will improve after the bridge collapse incident, which has been overcome, as well as the breakers has been transferred to the new treated areas. • Positive growth in output for Tan Cang and Nui Gio quarries, thanks to the improvement in demand from areas of these quarries and Western region. • The divestiture from financial investments will support cash flows for future quarry acquisitions and investment in new building materials. • Dividend yield is stable, at nearly 7%. NNC 90,100 Intermediate • High possibility for the expansion of Nui Nho after receiving approval from local citizens. Moreover, there is a huge demand from infrastructure construction activities in HCM City and Binh Duong. • Boosting consumption in Tan Lap quarry leads to the improvement in revenue and profit margin. • Ability to successfully acquire new quarries in order to maintain its core business. • Business performance exceeds the industry average. VIT 36,000 Long-term • Revenue growth from its new My Duc factory. • Increase in gross margin thanks to technology improvements, decline in shrinkage rate and focusing more on products with higher added-value. • Local granite tile consumption prospects (VIT’s products) will grow by more than 20%/year according to the Ministry of Construction.
  • 14. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 14 Hydropower is also worth considering for intermediate-term investment objectives for the following reasons: (1) The interference between La Nina and El Nino caused high demand for electricity while bringing unseasonal rains in the Mid-Central, Central Highlands and the South. This resulted in high volume from hydropower during the first four months of 2017. Most hydropower plants recorded strong growth in profit, higher than the multi-year average and exceptionally high compared to the same period in 2016. Although there are many comments regarding the possibility of El Nino’s return in the second half of 2017, we think that this event will not be a significant area of concern, especially since the rainy season of the South began earlier. (2) In the first quarter of 2017, electricity consumption growth reached 8.3% YoY. In Q2 2017, the growth rate will be 12%, according to EVN's plan. (3) The rising input price of thermal power plants (coal and gas) will enhance the advantage for hydropower plants in the CGM. However, the low level of liquidity is the major disadvantage that investors should pay attention to when investing in hydropower stocks. Instead, we think that REE might be a more suitable option with its current hydropower portfolio including 8 companies (1 Subsidiary, 5 Affiliated companies and 2 Long-term financial investments). PPC, a thermal power plant company, is also another stock worth noting, as it has begun recovering from its bottom, and is a strong pick for investors with an intermediate term horizon. Stock Picks Target Price Time Horizon Investment Rationales CHP 25,000 Intermediate -term • Revenue and PAT in Q1 2017 increased by 158% and 14.8% respectively. • Favorable hydrological conditions and the growing demand for electricity will support the company during the remaining quarters of 2017. • We expect that its PAT will reach VND356 billion during 2017, corresponding to an EPS of VND2,695. • The Cash dividend for 2016 and 2017 was approved by the AGM at VND1,600 dong/share and VND1,500 – 1,700/share. SHP 22,800 Intermediate -term • Revenue increased by 112% YoY and PAT in Q1 2017 was VND -12 billion (Q12016: VND -54 billion) • Favorable hydrological conditions and growing demand for electricity will support the company during the remaining quarters of 2017. • We expect that the company’s PAT will be VND356 billion in 2017, corresponding to an EPS of VND2,695. VSH N/a Long-term • Revenue and PAT of Q1 2017 increased by 83% and 97% respectively. • Favorable hydrological conditions and growing demand for electricity will support the company during the remaining quarters of 2017. • The participation of REE will bring about positive changes in VSH's corporate governance. REE 35,500 Long-term • Revenue and PAT of Q1 2017 increase 97% and 217% respectively. • Positive outlook of the company’s power sector thanks to (1) Positive outlook of hydropower and (2) PPC's debt repayment before maturity will help consolidated profit from this company, and it will no longer has much fluctuations due to exchange rate fluctuations. • The remaining business sectors followed our expectations. • We expect that its PAT for 2017 will be VND1,175 billion, corresponding to an EPS of VND3,791. PPC 19,400 Intermediate -term • Revenue and PAT of Q1 2017 reached VN1,476 billion and VND142 billion (Q12016: VND -158 billion) due to (1) The sharp increase in average selling prices of PL1, (2) the VND32billion profit from divestment in a subsidiary (3) the decrease in foreign exchange losses. • Exchange rate risks decreases since PPC plans to prepay its debt before maturity. In which, the company will pay JPY16 billion in the first half of 2017 with funds from (1) cash and short-term bank deposits and (2) short-term commercial bank loans (if necessary). We forecast that the company’s net interest income will be around VND200 billion (-25% YoY).
  • 15. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 15 • We expect that its PAT for 2017 will be VND719 billion (+31% YoY), corresponding to EPS of VND2,096. We also think that the construction, banking, textile and port sectors are noteworthy areas for investment. In terms of business results in Q1 2017, construction, banking, and textile companies have delivered stronger growth as compared to last year. We believe that the overall performance of these sectors will be stronger than 2016, as the prospects for the remaining three quarters are also very strong. Given the strong increase in terms of stocks prices in the first four months, we currently give a neutral recommendation for textile stocks and recommend investors to accumulate stocks in the remaining industries. Newly listed stocks have been attracting the attention of investors over the last few years. Rong Viet Research would like to introduce several stocks which have been recently listed or under the procedure to be listed in the future. CTCP Siam Brother (SBG – HSX) • CTCP Siam Brother (SBG) was approved to be listed and will begin trading on the HSX (20.54 million shares) at VND 40,000/share this month (16/5/2017). • Siam Brother is a longtime brand (over 50 years) in rope production and distribution in Thailand. The company started to penetrate Vietnam’s market in 199, and currently accounts for 40% of the market. Siam Brother is leading the market with 2.5 times the scale of company in 2nd position. • SBG’s business results grew continuously, even during Vietnam’s economic downturn. During 2012 – 2016, revenue and profit after tax of SBG achieved CARG of 12.0% and 22.6% respectively. The company’s profit margin has gradually improved and is currently at a high level. The company’s gross margin and net margin for 2016 were 42.5% and 22.4% respectively. • Existing factories reached the maximum designed capacity. The company’s new factory is projected to have capacity of 3,000 tons/year, equivalent to 30% of current capacity and will begin operating in July of 2017. • With ample room for growth from the agriculture market, and its increased focus on exports, RongViet Research expects the demand prospects to be positive. In 2017, SBG targets to achieve VND601.28 billion in revenue and VND 149.77 billion in PAT, equivalent to EPS of VND6,000. Furthermore, SBG has an attractive cash dividend (nearly 10%). Loc Troi Group • Loc Troi, formerly known as An Giang Plant Protection Joint Stock Company, was established in 1993 and was equitized in September 2004 with chartered capital of VND150 billion. Currently, the company has a chartered capital of VND672 billion and is targeting a vertical agricultural value chain, with its three main segments including pesticides, rice and seeds. The
  • 16. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 16 company’s pesticide segment has been maintaining a strong growth rate and a gross margin of 31% - 33%, well above the sector average of 24.6%. The company’s seed segment is still fairly stable with a gross margin of 35%, despite strong competition from the NSC. The only segment that is struggling is its rice segment, due to the unfinished production value chain and unfavorable weather conditions. • In 2017, Loc Troi plans to achieve revenue growth of 6.5%, equivalent to VND8,857 billion, which will primarily be driven by its plant and medicine segment, while it expects for its rice segment to experience negative growth. We expect that the company’s pesticides and seeds segments will achieve positive growth. The company plans for its PBT and PAT to reach VND597 billion (+28.7% YoY) and VND460 billion (+31.8% YoY). According to this plan, EPS in FY2017 will be VND5,822 (+32% YoY). We think that this plan is quite ambitious due to (1) unfavorable weather conditions, its incomplete value chain, and new business lines that have not been implemented. Unfavorable weather conditions are a key negative factor for this company, as seen by rice exports falling by 8% YoY during the first four months of this year. • There are 3 highlights of the company’s FY2017 business plan. (1) Loc Troi will sign a joint venture with China to export rice to this market in May 2017. (2) The company will develop a value chain in fruit trees with HAG after its initiation in 3 western provinces, including Tien Giang, Ben Tre and Vinh Long. (3) Finally, Loc Troi will also begin growing coffee, as it has been doing with rice products since 2010. The company’s fruit tree and coffee projects will take Loc Troi a very long time to implement, and it will take time before they begin to significantly impact its business. • 67 million shares of Loc Troi might be listed on UPCOM by the end of this May. Changes in shareholder structure, namely a new major shareholder of Viet Nam Marina Ltd, has just received a 25.5% transfer from Standard Charter Private Equity, which may be a sign for this listing. • Currently, there aren’t many shares in the agribusiness and Loc Troi is a notable one as it is targeting a vertical value chain in this sector. Although Loc Troi plant protection products are comparatively favorable to its competitors, its rice and seed products are still in the process of improvement. Although there are many companies working in the same fields (food and seedlings) with Loc Troi, their firm size is relatively small, and has a low product value, and undefined brand and output. Loc Troi has the ability to take advantage of its chain to promote its competitive advantages. • The company’s forward P/E at present is 9.9 times, based on its growth plans and current OTC price. We hold the view that Loc Troi’s shares are undervalued. However, investors should note that the investment period should be long term, and it will take a long time for the company to put its agribusiness chain into operation • In addition, there are some risks to investing in Loc Troi shares such as: (1) objective factors in the industry such as weather and diseases (2) risk of instability in agricultural policy, and (3) many product value chains that are deployed at the same time but are not yet effective. In addition, the correction of the market in the month will also be the opportunity to accumulate stocks for long-term investment objectives. RongViet Research’s favorite stocks are those with leading role in their industry or those in sectors that expect to see positive changes in the recovery of the economy or the supportive of policies. Figure 17: RongViet Research’s stock pick
  • 17. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 17 Source: RongViet Research; Price @ May 5th , 2017
  • 18. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 18 Ticker Exchange Target price (VND) Price @ May 5th (VND) Upside (%) Rating Time horizon 2016 2017F 2018F PER Trailing (x) PER 2017F (x) PBR Cur. (x) Div Yield (x) +/- Price 1y (%) 3M avg. daily vol. (‘1000 shares) 3M avg. daily turnover (USD thousand) Market cap (USD mn) Foreign remaining room (%) +/- Rev. (%) +/- NPAT (%) +/- Rev. (%) +/- NPAT (%) +/- Rev. (%) +/- NPAT (%) ACV UPCOM 67,000 49,100 36.5 Buy Long-term 21.1 198.2 16.2 -20.1 17.1 26.3 31.0 22.3 4.3 1.0 0.0 287 644 4,699 45.6 FPT HSX 63,500 47,100 34.8 Buy Long-term 4.1 3.1 23.6 32.9 15.0 32.4 10.5 8.2 2.2 4.2 18.5 988 2,014 955 - ITD HSX 33,900 25,400 33.5 Buy Intermediate-term 57.5 137.8 19.9 19.0 N/a N/a 7.3 6.0 1.6 2.4 47.3 136 162 21 31.9 TNG HNX 17,000 12,800 32.8 Buy Intermediate-term -1.9 13.9 17.0 16.5 10.5 11.1 5.3 5.3 0.8 0.0 -28.9 128 76 19 26.5 PHP HNX 20,800 15,700 32.5 Buy Intermediate-term 2.2 3.9 -0.6 6.5 8.0 9.6 11.6 11.9 1.5 5.1 -21.6 6 5 226 48.6 VSC HSX 73,700 56,500 30.4 Buy Long-term 16.6 -10.0 18.2 23.8 6.0 9.6 10.3 9.2 1.8 6.2 11.9 121 313 113 - DRC HSX 35,900 28,150 27.5 Accumulate Long-term 1.3 -4.8 17.4 -1.3 14.4 7.9 8.9 9.3 2.0 8.0 -15.1 373 513 147 18.3 PC1 HSX 48,000 38,100 26.0 Accumulate Long-term -3.0 24.1 13.4 3.7 48.1 93.6 10.4 12.7 1.4 0.0 0.0 193 328 126 24.0 VIT HNX 36,000 28,800 25.0 Accumulate Long-term 41.6 53.5 17.8 18.4 33.4 25.7 7.1 6.7 1.9 5.2 25.8 35 46 19 46.2 HPG HSX 36,000 29,200 23.3 Accumulate Long-term 21.2 89.4 30.7 13.2 19.4 4.4 4.9 5.3 1.2 0.0 48.5 4,229 7,049 1,622 12.3 PTB HSX 153,600 125,200 22.7 Accumulate Long-term 20.2 52.8 25.6 25.5 16.1 9.8 10.0 9.1 3.6 0.0 29.5 68 396 119 37.8 PVT HSX 15,400 12,700 21.3 Accumulate Long-term 16.9 12.9 6.2 1.3 10.6 10.0 8.0 9.0 1.0 7.9 28.9 745 424 157 23.8 REE HSX 35,500 29,300 21.2 Accumulate Long-term 38.4 28.2 23.1 19.0 6.4 13.7 6.8 7.7 1.3 1.7 50.5 1,222 1,468 399 - VFG HSX 90,700 74,900 21.1 Accumulate Long-term 13.4 5.2 9.6 16.2 6.1 7.6 9.8 9.0 1.7 1.3 21.0 10 32 60 27.7 CTD HSX 237,700 200,500 18.6 Accumulate Long-term 52.0 113.5 30.4 22.2 9.9 9.8 9.3 9.5 2.4 2.7 60.5 193 1,679 678 5.1 CTG HSX 21,000 17,750 18.3 Accumulate Long-term 16.3 20.0 8.2 17.3 7.4 14.5 9.6 8.2 1.1 3.9 10.8 1,600 1,289 2,904 - BFC HSX 41,000 35,000 17.1 Accumulate Long-term -1.6 21.0 17.8 18.4 15.8 10.1 6.7 6.8 2.1 8.6 52.7 252 389 88 32.1 MBB HSX 19,400 16,700 16.2 Accumulate Long-term 12.4 16.7 16.5 16.7 7.4 18.4 9.4 9.2 1.1 1.8 21.1 1,211 812 1,257 - VCB HSX 41,700 36,100 15.5 Accumulate Long-term 17.3 28.6 7.7 14.1 12.9 32.0 18.1 16.3 2.6 2.2 5.6 1,201 1,972 5,706 9.4 PHR HSX 30,600 26,500 15.5 Accumulate Intermediate-term -4.0 3.9 61.0 48.6 20.0 11.0 6.7 8.2 0.9 3.8 40.3 711 918 91 44.9 SHP HSX 22,800 19,800 15.2 Accumulate Intermediate-term -13.7 -40.4 19.7 78.7 -0.3 1.0 13.2 10.6 1.6 8.1 17.6 23 20 82 45.2 PGS HNX 20,900 18,200 14.8 Accumulate Intermediate-term -16.5 206.7 23.2 -65.5 9.7 9.3 9.3 7.8 0.9 6.9 14.8 418 326 40 32.8 CDN HNX 27,200 23,800 14.3 Accumulate Intermediate-term -3.5 2.1 16.0 8.9 26.9 4.3 11.4 12.2 1.8 4.2 0.0 4 4 69 48.6 BMP HSX 208,400 182,400 14.3 Neutral Long-term 18.5 20.9 11.2 7.9 13.1 10.0 15.8 13.6 3.5 4.2 30.3 75 641 364 0.3 HIGHLIGHT STOCKS
  • 19. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 19 Ticker Exchange Target price (VND) Price @ May 5th (VND) Upside (%) Rating Time horizon 2016 2017F 2018F PER Trailing (x) PER 2017F (x) PBR Cur. (x) Div Yield (x) +/- Price 1y (%) 3M avg. daily vol. (‘1000 shares) 3M avg. daily turnover (USD thousand) Market cap (USD mn) Foreign remaining room (%) +/- Rev. (%) +/- NPAT (%) +/- Rev. (%) +/- NPAT (%) +/- Rev. (%) +/- NPAT (%) NNC HSX 90,100 79,500 13.3 Accumulate Intermediate-term 14.9 49.8 23.5 25.7 8.1 3.4 7.1 7.6 2.9 4.1 55.6 30 100 57 28.3 VNR HNX 27,300 24,200 12.8 Neutral Long-term 0.0 -1.2 18.2 9.7 4.3 6.8 12.7 12.1 1.2 6.2 34.6 81 89 139 19.2 NT2 HSX 31,900 28,900 10.4 Neutral Long-term 18.6 -4.9 -13.2 -10.6 4.5 0.3 8.0 9.0 1.6 8.8 6.2 336 456 366 26.7 PPC HSX 19,400 17,900 8.4 Neutral Long-term -22.0 -2.2 17.7 33.0 1.8 -3.3 6.8 8.5 1.0 10.9 13.9 74 56 250 32.3 DPM HSX 25,000 23,250 7.5 Neutral Long-term -18.8 -23.3 16.4 4.9 20.5 -3.8 9.6 8.9 1.1 8.6 -12.2 1,020 1,090 400 29.5 CHP HSX 25,000 23,350 7.1 Neutral Intermediate-term -10.9 -21.5 22.2 38.1 -10.2 -10.8 7.6 8.7 1.6 6.9 0.0 130 126 129 45.6 PGI HSX 24,900 23,600 5.5 Neutral Long-term 0.0 5.2 10.3 55.5 13.2 -13.5 14.7 10.6 1.9 1.7 47.2 246 251 74 47.9 CTI HSX 31,500 29,900 5.4 Neutral Long-term 23.8 58.4 22.3 12.4 12.8 22.3 10.4 16.4 1.9 4.8 36.3 388 472 56 20.4 ACB HNX 24,500 23,500 4.3 Neutral Long-term 21.6 28.9 11.4 21.9 27.9 46.2 15.5 15.8 1.6 0.0 45.2 3,594 3,641 1,018 - HSG HSX 51,700 49,650 4.1 Neutral Intermediate-term 16.5 145.3 31.7 -0.5 17.6 22.2 5.6 6.0 2.1 1.0 54.6 1,425 3,062 436 19.0 DNP HNX 29,600 28,500 3.9 Neutral Long-term 60.9 91.6 34.7 50.6 17.6 10.8 10.4 6.6 2.0 0.0 22.6 56 63 38 45.5 NKG HSX 46,110 44,400 3.9 Neutral Intermediate-term 55.4 310.7 62.0 29.0 14.6 10.4 4.1 4.8 1.7 0.0 150.8 383 673 129 19.3 VNM HSX 151,800 146,600 3.5 Neutral Long-term 16.8 20.3 19.9 12.1 13.4 10.9 21.0 22.6 8.6 0.3 30.4 1,292 7,808 9,348 45.2 PNJ HSX 97,300 94,800 2.6 Neutral Long-term 11.1 195.8 21.7 43.3 13.1 21.4 16.2 15.6 5.3 1.1 68.4 210 778 409 - SVC HSX 54,500 53,700 1.5 Neutral Long-term 38.0 18.4 11.2 20.4 -5.0 4.5 10.9 10.1 1.5 3.0 56.8 117 258 59 7.5 TCM HSX 25,300 26,000 -2.7 Neutral Long-term 10.0 -25.6 6.2 55.6 1.9 7.4 9.1 8.5 1.3 1.9 -0.9 673 630 56 - VGC HNX 14,600 15,200 -3.9 Neutral Long-term 4.1 56.4 7.9 17.3 13.6 9.1 7.7 8.2 1.1 4.6 0.0 301 202 205 39.9 PAC HSX 36,800 38,500 -4.4 Neutral Long-term 8.2 34.1 19.4 0.5 12.4 10.5 14.9 15.9 3.2 4.7 48.7 214 337 79 20.7 HT1 HSX 21,200 22,200 -4.5 Neutral Long-term 8.3 9.5 6.6 13.7 5.2 6.7 10.7 10.8 1.6 0.0 -4.2 398 380 372 39.9 VJC HSX 121,000 131,000 -7.6 Neutral Long-term 38.6 113.3 41.7 24.9 22.0 25.2 15.6 13.6 8.2 1.1 0.0 550 3,110 1,839 3.9 GMD HSX 33,000 36,050 -8.5 Reduce Intermediate-term 4.3 -3.1 11.2 23.7 22.3 26.8 15.8 22.1 1.2 5.5 35.4 1,074 1,587 284 19.1 IMP HSX 54,900 60,100 -8.7 Neutral Long-term 4.8 8.9 24.6 33.5 18.4 17.8 16.9 19.5 1.7 3.3 41.4 56 152 103 - DHG HSX 125,400 140,000 -10.4 Reduce Long-term 4.9 20.6 12.4 10.0 9.7 9.2 16.7 17.9 4.0 1.1 72.0 111 636 536 - SAB HSX 158,400 199,300 -20.5 Sell Long-term 12.6 31.3 11.2 4.2 12.9 4.2 27.5 29.2 10.2 1.0 0.0 73 675 5,615 39.2 MWG HSX 134,500 172,000 -21.8 Sell Intermediate-term 76.7 47.2 63.2 41.4 35.9 16.5 14.9 14.2 6.0 0.9 123.4 184 1,371 1,162 -
  • 20. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 20 APPENDIX: LIST OF COMPANIES PAYING DIVIDEND IN MAY Ticker Ex-dividend date Payment date Exchange Close Price Cash Dividend Dividend Yield Stock Dividend VE4 5/18/2017 6/20/2017 HNX 14,600 2,000 14% PPY 5/4/2017 6/1/2017 HNX 13,000 1,600 12% PBP 5/15/2017 5/20/2017 HNX 14,200 1,500 11% HMC 5/15/2017 5/31/2017 HSX 10,700 1,100 10% VC1 5/23/2017 6/30/2017 HNX 19,500 2,000 10% EBS 5/4/2017 5/25/2017 HNX 8,800 900 10% PSC 5/4/2017 6/2/2017 HNX 13,500 1,350 10% NBC 5/12/2017 6/29/2017 HNX 6,600 550 8% LHG 5/9/2017 5/31/2017 HSX 21,650 1,500 7% NCT 5/12/2017 6/9/2017 HSX 87,900 6,000 7% PJC 5/3/2017 5/18/2017 HNX 17,200 1,100 6% BHT 5/8/2017 5/18/2017 HNX 2,700 150 6% PSE 5/12/2017 6/5/2017 HNX 12,600 700 6% TVD 5/18/2017 6/9/2017 HNX 5,900 300 5% SRF 5/4/2017 5/22/2017 HSX 27,200 1,200 4% GDT 5/10/2017 5/24/2017 HSX 62,000 2,500 4% FTS 5/8/2017 6/9/2017 HSX 13,700 500 4% 10% HCM 5/15/2017 6/7/2017 HSX 32,900 1,200 4% 50% TMC 5/10/2017 5/25/2017 HNX 13,800 500 4% CLC 5/4/2017 5/26/2017 HSX 59,300 2,000 3% INN 5/9/2017 5/26/2017 HNX 64,000 2,000 3% TDW 5/11/2017 5/29/2017 HSX 25,000 700 3% SGC 5/11/2017 5/23/2017 HNX 47,300 1,200 3% DHG 5/4/2017 5/17/2017 HSX 140,000 3,500 3% DXG 5/15/2017 6/29/2017 HSX 22,450 500 2% 13% VNC 5/12/2017 6/15/2017 HNX 36,500 800 2% VFG 5/3/2017 5/19/2017 HSX 74,900 1,500 2% VNM 5/4/2017 5/22/2017 HSX 146,600 2,000 1% SMA 5/9/2017 6/12/2017 HSX 8,000 100 1% VJC 5/9/2017 5/30/2017 HSX 129,800 1,000 1% TV2 5/24/2017 6/26/2017 HNX 215,000 1,000 0% 15% Source: FiinPro, RongViet Research *Close price and dividend yield as of 5/5/2017
  • 21. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 21 MACRO WATCH Headline Inflation Steadied In April Slight Recovery In Retail Sales Source: GSO, RongViet Research Source: GSO, RongViet Research Manufacturing Remained Strong Exports Growth Surprised On The Upside Source: GSO, RongViet Research Source: GSO, RongViet Research Resilient FDI Flows Government Bonds Become More Attractive Source: FII, RongViet Research Source: VBMA, RongViet Research 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 01/2016 02/2016 03/2016 04/2016 05/2016 06/2016 07/2016 08/2016 09/2016 10/2016 11/2016 12/2016 01/2017 02/2017 03/2017 04/2017 Headline inflation Core inflation 240000 260000 280000 300000 320000 340000 0% 4% 8% 12% 01/2016 02/2016 03/2016 04/2016 05/2016 06/2016 07/2016 08/2016 09/2016 10/2016 11/2016 12/2016 01/2017 02/2017 03/2017 04/2017 Retail Sales (VND B) Growth (Ex-inflation) -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 .0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 01/2016 02/2016 03/2016 04/2016 05/2016 06/2016 07/2016 08/2016 09/2016 10/2016 11/2016 12/2016 01/2017 02/2017 03/2017 04/2017 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 PMI IP (3m moving average) -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 01/2016 02/2016 03/2016 04/2016 05/2016 06/2016 07/2016 08/2016 09/2016 10/2016 11/2016 12/2016 01/2017 02/2017 03/2017 04/2017 Export Import 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 01/2016 02/2016 03/2016 04/2016 05/2016 06/2016 07/2016 08/2016 09/2016 10/2016 11/2016 12/2016 01/2017 02/2017 03/2017 04/2017 Implemented capital Registered capital 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 01/2016 02/2016 03/2016 04/2016 05/2016 06/2016 07/2016 08/2016 09/2016 10/2016 11/2016 12/2016 01/2017 02/2017 03/2017 Winning volume Offering volume Winning/Offering Ratio
  • 22. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 22 INDUSTRY INDEX Level 1 industry movement Level 2 industry movement Source: RongViet Research Source: RongViet Research Industry PE comparison Industry PB comparison Source: RongViet Research Source: RongViet Research -1% -2% -10% -1% 1% 2% -3% 0% -1% 2% Technology Industrials Oil&Gas ConsumerServices HealthCare ConsumerGoods Banks BasicMaterials Financials Utilities -1% -3% 0% -1% -10% -4% 2% -2% 1% 5% 2% -3% 2% -1% 1% 5% -2% 1% Retail Insurance Real Estate Technology Oil & Gas Financial Services Utilities Travel & Leisure Industrial Goods & Services Personal & Household Goods Chemicals Banks Automobiles & Parts Basic Resources Food & Beverage Media Construction & Materials Health Care 11.6 15.1 15.2 13.5 16.4 18.1 14.4 7.5 20.1 12.7 16.9 11.5 Technology Industrials Oil&Gas Consumer Services HealthCare Consumer Goods Banks BasicMaterials Financials Utilities HSX HNX 2.0 3.7 0.6 4.5 3.5 5.5 1.6 1.3 2.8 2.3 3.8 1.6 Technology Industrials Oil&Gas ConsumerServices HealthCare ConsumerGoods Banks BasicMaterials Financials Utilities HSX HNX
  • 23. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 23 DISCLAIMERS This report is prepared in order to provide information and analysis to clients of Rong Viet Securities only. It is and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities. No consideration has been given to the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific. The readers should be aware that Rong Viet Securities may have a conflict of interest that can compromise the objectivity this research. This research is to be viewed by investors only as a source of reference when making investments. Investors are to take full responsibility of their own decisions. VDSC shall not be liable for any loss, damages, cost or expense incurring or arising from the use or reliance, either full or partial, of the information in this publication. 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  • 24. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 24 VDSC may rely on information barriers, such as “Chinese Walls” to control the flow of information within the areas, units, divisions, groups, or affiliates of VDSC. Investing in any non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments (including ADRs) discussed in this research report may present certain risks. The securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with, or be subject to the regulations of, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Information on such non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments may be limited. Foreign companies may not be subject to audit and reporting standards and regulatory requirements comparable to those in effect within the United States. The value of any investment or income from any securities or related financial instruments discussed in this research report denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars is subject to exchange rate fluctuations that may have a positive or adverse effect on the value of or income from such securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by VDSC with respect to future performance. Income from investments may fluctuate. The price or value of the investments to which this research report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. Any recommendation or opinion contained in this research report may become outdated as a consequence of changes in the environment in which the issuer of the securities under analysis operates, in addition to changes in the estimates and forecasts, assumptions and valuation methodology used herein. No part of the content of this research report may be copied, forwarded or duplicated in any form or by any means without the prior. Hanoi Branch 2C Thai Phien St., Hai Ba Trung Dist, Hanoi City Tel: (84 4) 6288 2006 Fax: (84 4) 6288 2008 Can Tho Branch 95-97-99 Vo Van Tan – Ninh Kieu - Can Tho Tel: (84 71) 381 7578 Fax: (84 71) 381 8387 Nha Trang Branch 50Bis Yersin St, Nha Trang Tel: (84 58) 382 0006 Fax: (84 58) 382 0008 VIET DRAGON SECURITIES CORPORATION Floor 1-2-3-4, Viet Dragon Tower, 141 Nguyen Du St. - Dist 1 – HCMC Tel: (84 8) 6299 2006 Fax: (84 8) 6291 7986 Email: info@vdsc.com.vn Website: www.vdsc.com.vn