In this month's strategy Report RongViet highlights quite strong first quarter results of listed companies and explains why still it might be a good idea to follow the classic statement "Sell in May".
Access to this presentation has been made possible through "Sao Bien. Room for Education", an Austrian-based non-profit organization and cooperation partner of Viet Dragon Securities.
Reprinted with the permission of Viet Dragon Securities. Not for US investors.
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Rong Viet Securities - Investment Strategy Report May 2017
1. Afterreachingitspeakof731.33points,theVNIndexexperiencedanadjustmentperiodfor2weekswith
a decrease of 3.2%. The difficulty of the index increasing was apparent after large-cap stocks stopped
leading the market during late March 2017, following the strong surge in the first quarter of this year.
We believe that geopolitical factors were the main catalyst for the aggressive profit takingactivities last
month.
Credit growthdramatically improved inQ12017. This movement surprised us because capital demand
is usually low during the first quarter. As the results, it is possible that a part of credit flew to the stock
market.Asaresult,liquidity successfully increased overthe first4monthsof2017,achieving anaverage
of VND3,818 billion/session (+38% YoY). When manufacturing production is promoted from Q2 2017,
consumers will borrow more from banks, and the capital for the stock exchange could gradually
decline. Based on this, we expect that flows from foreign investors will continue to be poured into
Vietnam’s stock exchanges. The market may further open up due to the additional room created from
Pakistan being promoted to an emerging market this month, allowing Vietnam to take over some of
this space.
The classic statement “Sell in May” has been a frequently supported idea, which will continue to create
a cautious sentiment for investors. Moreover, the annual general meeting season passed, and a large
number of companies have announced Q1 business results. Therefore, the overall picture of business
prospects for listed companies is quite clear at this moment, as a large amount of information has been
announced during AGMs. After this period, there will be less supporting information for companies.
Meanwhile, sudden global movements could continue to negatively impact Vietnam’s stock market.
Therefore, we believe that May will be a favorable period for the market. However, the business results
released in the first quarter may not immediately influence stock prices. Firms with a bright outlook in
the remaining quarters of the year will still be able to maintain a fair price or reasonable price increase.
We expect the VNIndex to fluctuate between 705 and 730 points with an average trading volume of
around VND3,800 billion. In May, the domestic macroeconomic environment may not have much
supporting news. Although the probability of a negative downturn is not high, we still do not advise
investors to use margin during this period.
.
Analysis and Investment Advisory
Truc Doan – Head of Research
truc.dtt@vdsc.com.vn
Ha My Tran
my.tth@vdsc.com.vn
Lam Nguyen
lam.ntp@vdsc.com.vn
Thien Bui
thien.bv@vdsc.com.vn
Hieu Nguyen
hieu.nd@vdsc.com.vn
Quang Vo
quang.vv@vdsc.com.vn
Huong Pham
huong.pt@vdsc.com.vn
Please see penultimate page for
additional important disclosure
Viet Dragon Securities Corp. (“VDSC”) is a
foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the
USA. VDSC research is prepared by
researchanalysts whoare not registeredin
the USA. VDSC research is distributed in
the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by
Rosenblatt Securities Inc, an SEC
registered and FINRA-member broker-
dealer.
620
650
680
710
740
0
50
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200
250
300
20/01 10/02 24/02 10/03 24/03 10/04 24/04
Trading Volume (mil. shares) VNINdex (right axis)
07/05/2017
Investment Strategy May 2017
Optimistic Q1 2017 Earnings Season
2. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 2
CONTENTS
WORLD ECONOMY................................................................................................................................................................................ 3
US: The Economy Lost Some Steam in Q1..........................................................................................................................................................................3
EU: Growth Outlook Remains Intact.....................................................................................................................................................................................4
China: Q1 GDP Growth Signaled a Better Outlook..........................................................................................................................................................4
WORLD STOCK MARKETS..................................................................................................................................................................... 5
VIETNAM ECONOMY ............................................................................................................................................................................ 6
2017 Trade Outlook: Better Growth but Higher Deficit.................................................................................................................................................6
Industries Outlook from a Macro Perspective...................................................................................................................................................................7
VIETNAM STOCK MARKET APRIL: ONE CORRECTION PHASE DOSE NOT CHANGE THE BIG PICTURE........................................... 9
STOCK MARKET OUTLOOKS ..............................................................................................................................................................12
INVESTMENT STRATEGY....................................................................................................................................................................13
Based on these observations of the market, we believe that “surfing” or short-term investments contain higher levels of risk.
Instead, investors should focus on companies with solid intermediate and long term plans.
Based on the Q1 2017 earnings of listed companies, an 8% YTD increase of the VNIndex is totally justified. Most companies
recorded strong growth in profit not only from core businesses, but also extraordinary profits such as property sales and
divestitures. Moreover, a large number of companies in certain sectors recovered from the previous bottom experienced. We
recognize that businesses are gradually improving along with positive macroeconomic data, which provides a positive outlook
for 2017. Furthermore, a statistical survey of 2017 business plans after annual general meeting season also demonstrated a
positive picture for the market, as half of the companies projected revenue to increase by more than 10% YoY. Some of Rong Viet
Research’s favorite sectors include construction, building materials, consumer good, hydropower and banking.
In spite of being the trough season, Q1 2017 business results from building materials companies, including stones and ceramic
tiles, recorded impressive growth rates. To be more specific, profit after tax of several notable companies such as KSB, DHC, NNC
and VIT improved by 83.4%, 58.0%, 7.1% and 83% YoY, respectively thanks to the improvement in output and business efficiency.
The higher level of activity in the construction and real estate market in Q2 2017 will be a catalyst for positive growth of earnings
for these sectors, as compared to previous quarters.
The probability of Tan Dong Hiep and Nui Nho quarries receiving an extension for 2 – 3 years has significantly improved, with a
major consensus (93%) of local citizens. In addition to this, companies are also looking for new mines, acquiring others in the
same industry (KSB, C32) and increasing capacity in existing quarries (DHA, KSB, NNC). Regarding VIT, the acquisition and
renovation of My Duc brick factory will be a solution for its bottleneck issues, and providing strong future growth prospects for
this year and the following year. Investment opportunities for DHA, NNC and VIT in the intermediate term are favorable.
Hydropower is also worth considering for intermediate-term investment objectives for the following reasons: (1) The interference
between La Nina and El Nino caused high demand for electricity while bringing unseasonal rains in the Mid-Central, Central
Highlands and the South. This resulted in high volume from hydropower during the first four months of 2017. Most hydropower
plants recorded strong growth in profit, higher than the multi-year average and exceptionally high compared to the same period
in 2016. Although there are many comments regarding the possibility of El Nino’s return in the second half of 2017, we think that
this event will not be a significant area of concern, especially since the rainy season of the South began earlier; (2) In the first
quarter of 2017, electricity consumption growth reached 8.3% YoY. In Q2 2017, the growth rate will be 12%, according to EVN's
plan; and (3) The rising input price of thermal power plants (coal and gas) will enhance the advantage for hydropower plants in
the CGM. Our favorite hydro plants are CHP, SHP, and VSH. However, the low level of liquidity is the major disadvantage that
investors should pay attention to when investing in hydropower stocks. Instead, we think that REE might be a more suitable
option with its current hydropower portfolio.
We also think that the construction, banking, textile and port sectors are noteworthy areas for investment. In terms of business
results in Q1 2017, construction, banking, and textile companies have delivered stronger growth as compared to last year. We
believe that the overall performance of these sectors will be stronger than 2016, as the prospects for the remaining three quarters
are also very strong. Given the strong increase in terms of stocks prices in the first four months, we currently give a neutral
recommendation for textile stocks and recommend investors to accumulate stocks in the remaining industries.
HIGHLIGHT STOCKS............................................................................................................................................................................18
49 stocks of RongViet Research (analyzing, discussing with companies) and have analysis and specific evaluation in “Company
report” or “Analyst pinboard”.
3. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 3
WORLD ECONOMY
• US: The Economy Lost Some Steam in Q1
• EU: Growth Outlook Remains Intact
• China: Q1 GDP Growth Signals a Better Outlook
In the first quarter of 2017, the economic growth of Asian countries outpaced the EU and US. Thanks
to the recovery of the manufacturing sector and increased global demand, we expect that the growth
momentum willstrengthenor atleastremain firm inthe upcoming quartersofthisyear.The monetary
policies of major central banks appear to be in line with market expectations. Moreover, the
uncertainty in global trade policy has also eased. The USD is set to decline because political drivers
have failed to boost it and the US wants a weaker USD. We expect that the CNY will depreciate due to
structural outflow pressures, while the fall in GBP and EUR will be much more limited, according to
HSBC’s forecast.
US: The Economy Lost Some Steam in Q1
In the first quarter of 2017, the economy expanded at the slowest pace in three years. The
economy grew at 0.7% this quarter, below expectations of 1.1%. The deceleration in growth was
mostly a result of weak consumption, which offset the rise in investment in housing and oil drilling
and the rise in exports. Specifically, the dismal performance among US households was largely
associated with lower auto sales and home-heating bills, and seasonal effects. As a result, the
growth in private consumption decelerated abruptly from 3.5% in the last quarter of last year to
0.3% in Q1 2017. Meanwhile, fixed investments accelerated to a five year high (10.4% in Q1). The
pickup in global demand also supported export growth, which experienced a 5.8% increase
compared to a 4.5% drop in Q4 2016. Despite the deceleration in the economy being larger than
expected, the US. Central Bank expects this downturn to be temporary. The FED now expects
economic growth to range between 1.7%-2.3% in 2017.
In the third FOMC meeting held on the 2nd-3rd of May, the FED decided to leave its interest rates
unchanged. The decision was broadly in line with market expectations, and the likelihood for an
interest rate hike at the next meeting in June is 78.8%, according to the FedWatchTool. At the end
of April, President Trump unveiled a tax cut plan for individuals and businesses. At the moment,
there are still many unanswered questions about the feasibility of this plan. However, it seems
that the Trump administration has now been able to support growth and has been less aggressive
in trade protectionism.
Figure 1: US GDP Growth (Unit: %) Figure 2: Rate Hike Probability Historical for the next
meeting
Source: Bloomberg Source: CMEGroup
-1.2
4
5
2.3
2
2.6
2
0.9 0.8
1.4
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Q12014
Q22014
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Q12017
0%
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80%
05/04/2016
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06/08/2016
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02/07/2017
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03/30/2017
04/18/2017
4. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 4
EU: Growth Outlook Remains Intact
The Eurozone recorded a 1.9% YoY growth rate in Q1 2017, which was in line with market
expectations. Growth was strong in markets such as Austria, Belgium and Spain, while economic
activities lost some momentum in France during political events. The outlook of the region as a
whole is stable with a strong labor market and a brighter global demand. The unemployment rate
was unchanged at 9.5%, the lowest rate since May 2009 and lower than the average of 10% in
2016. Moreover, there is widespread optimism among firms in the manufacturing sector,
highlighted by the multi-year high PMI data in April.
In the latest meeting, the ECB decided to hold interest rates and made no changes in its bond-
buying programs. At the moment, there is a strong consensus that the ECB will keep the policy
rate unchanged at the current level of 0% to support economic growth.
Figure 3: EU GDP Growth Figure 4: Improving Sentiment
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
China: Q1 GDP Growth Signaled a Better Outlook
China’s GDP grew at an above-consensus 6.9% YoY in the first quarter of 2017 thanks to the
marked recovery in investment and manufacturing. Industrial production rose 7.6% in March of
2017, accelerating from the 6.6% rise in the first two months of 2017. This was above market
expectations and was the fastest growth since 2014. Simultaneously, fixed asset investments
expanded 9.2% annually in the first 3 months experiencing the strongest growth in 10 months.
Notably, manufacturing investment recovered after six years of decline. Export growth reached
8.2% YoY in Q1, a swift turnaround from the 7.7% decline in 2016. Because the recovery is
spreading from manufacturing to private investments and exports, we expect that the economic
outlook will improve in 2017.
Figure 5: China GDP Growth and Manufacturing PMI Figure 6: FAI Investment Growth
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
2.1
2.2
2.1 2.1
1.8 1.8
1.9 1.9 1.9
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2015 2016 2017
-6
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4
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Consumer Confidence Business Confidence
6.5
6.7
6.9
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7.5
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8.1
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GDP PMI
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
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10.5%
11.0%
01/16
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07/16
08/16
09/16
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12/16
01/17
03/17
04/17
5. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 5
WORLD STOCK MARKETS
Figure 7: Performances of Major Global Stock Market Indices in April
Source: Bloomberg, RongViet Research
World stock markets in April were largely influenced by geopolitical tensions over Syria, North
Korea and Afghanistan in the first two weeks, and only really flourished after candidate Emmanuel
Marcon European Union support school) won the first round of the French presidential election.
The US market was supported by positive expectations regarding President Trump's new tax
policy package, along with a slew of positive earnings reports. By the end of the month, the Dow
Jones and S&P500 gained 1.34% and 0.91% respectively, while the Nasdaq kept climbing for the
sixth consecutive month.
Global investors are looking to France, due to the country’s presidential election. The performance
of stock markets in this country suggested that there isn’t likely another “Fraxit” ahead. The
market sentiment was calm and tilted to the possibility that the next President would be
Emmanuel Macron, who supported France staying in the EU. Except for the FTSE 100 of the UK,
which fell 1.62% due to the unclear moves of Brexit, other indices such as CAC 40 and DAX were
up from the closing price at the end of March.
The markets in Asia have been similar to other world markets, except China, although it is sending
a positive signal from Q1 GDP growth. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.54%. The reason
for this is that investors are concerned that the Chinese government is increasingly tightening risk
controls in the country's financial system, especially in the recent times when there are many
warnings about the heat of the real estate market in this country. Other neighboring countries,
such as Japan and South Korea, recorded a recovery in the second half of April (Nikkei 225 and
Hang Seng rose 1.52% and 1.09%, respectively). It is worth mentioning that the South Korean
Kospi Index rose in spite of severe geopolitical tensions between North Korea and the United
States. This may reflect that the risk of war between the two Koreas and America is not high. This
is in contrast to the Vietnamese market, where global geopolitical tensions were used to explain
the downward movement of the VNIndex in April.
Overall, last April was relatively "quiet" for international stock markets. Although information
about the US - North Korea appears quite dense, this reason was not enough for international
investors to falter in the past month.
6% 6%
15%
1%
8% 8%
0%
3%
12%
7%
9%
7%
9% 8%
12%
10%
-8%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
DowJones
S&P500
Nasdaq
FTSE100
CAC40
DAX
Nikkei225
SSE(Shanghai)
HangSeng(Hongkong)
TSEC(Taiwan)
Kospi(Korean)
JKSE(Indonesia)
KLSE(Malaysia)
VNIndex(Vietnam)
HNX-Index(Vietnam)
Gold
Oil
From 31/03/2017 to 28/04/2017 From 31/12/2016 to 28/04/2017
6. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 6
VIETNAM ECONOMY
• 2017 Trade Outlook: Better Growth but Higher Deficit
• Industries Outlook from a Macro Perspective
Economic activities improved in April, most notably industrial production and consumption. The
manufacturing sector is the main growth driver, which is largely dependent on the FDI sector. We will
provide specific assessments for a variety of manufacturing industries in the note below.
During the first 4 months, banking liquidity remained stable as interbank rates remained below 5%,
supporting credit growth in the economy. The SBV actively devalued the dong by adjusting the central
exchange rate (0.88%). However, market exchange rates did not change much from the end of 2016,
due to the weakness of the USD.
Because of the dismal performance of the mining industry, we revised our GDP growth forecast from
6.58% to 6.4%. Meanwhile, the strong recovery in trade could boost trade growth above our previous
forecast. As a result, we raise our export growth forecast for 2017 from 10.4% to 14.1% and import
growth from 11.9% to 18%.
2017 Trade Outlook: Better Growth but Higher Deficit
As we mentioned in our 2017 Strategy Report, there will be a recovery in trade despite the
uncertainty in global trade policy. In the first 4 months of 2017, export growth was strong, above
our expectations. Exports grew 16% YoY, much better than the growth rate of 6.7% in 2016. The
improvement was mainly led by processing exports, such as electrical products (+45.5% YoY),
machinery (+42.6% YoY), which displays the relatively positive performance of the FDI sector.
Samsung’s operations had significant impacts on Vietnam’s exports. The abnormal growth of
electrical products was due to Samsung Electronics HCMC CE Complex project, which began
operating in June 2016. Meanwhile, negative growth in cellphone exports (-6% YoY) was an
abnormal case, resulting from the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 crisis.
Export performance of domestic companies improved during the first 4 months of 2017, with a
growth of 13.1% thanks to higher commodity prices. However, one of our most significant
concerns is the imbalance in domestic trade. Imports grew 23% YoY, a dramatic gain from 0.3% in
2016. As a result, there was a deficit of ~USD7.9 billion in domestic trade in the first 4 months of
2017, a 53.4% YoY increase.
Performance of Vietnam’s exports to other markets varied substantially. Asian countries were the
main drivers for export growth, while exports to the EU and US (key export partners of Vietnam)
were not very encouraging in the first 4 months. Most notably, exports to China grew 45.1% YoY,
equivalent to USD8.6 billion; exports to the US only grew 3.7% YoY (~USD11.9 billion).
Figure 8: Trade Growth Recovered in The First 4 Months Figure 9: Trade Growth by Key Partners
Source: Customs, RongViet Research Source: Customs, RongViet Research
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
01/2016
02/2016
03/2016
04/2016
05/2016
06/2016
07/2016
08/2016
09/2016
10/2016
11/2016
12/2016
01/2017
02/2017
03/2017
04/2017
Export Import
US: $11.9 bn (+3.7% YoY)
EU: $11.3 bn (+8.8% YoY)
China: $8.6 bn (+45.1% YoY)
ASEAN: $6.7 bn (+26.0% YoY)
Japan: $5.2 bn (+19.3% YoY)
Korea: $4.4 bn (+32.0% YoY)
EXPORTS
China: $17.6 bn (+19.4% YoY)
Korea: $13.7 bn (+45.3% YoY)
ASEAN: $8.9 bn (+20.4% YoY)
Japan: $5.1 bn (+16.9% YoY)
EU: $3.8 bn (+24.3% YoY)
US: $3.0 bn (+23.1% YoY)
IMPORTS
7. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 7
Currently, we see three elements supporting the outlook of trade in 2017:
1. External outlook improving: The first meeting between President Xi and President Trump
significantly reduced the risk of a head-on confrontation over trade. We think this is a good
signal for not only China but also Vietnam. In addition, TPP countries kick-started discussions
towards implementing the pact without the US at the beginning of May 2017. There is now
hope that the TPP pact will come alive and support trade growth. Last but not least, the
economic outlook of Asian countries became brighter in the first quarter of 2017, pointing to
a significant improvement in demand.
2. Steadied FDI flows: Because the FDI sector has taken a great part in Vietnam trade turnovers
(~70%), there is no doubt that past investments will contribute to future growth in exports.
SEHC, LG Display, and LG Innotek, are some big names that could influence export growth in
the short term.
3. There was a pause in the recovery of commodity prices, mainly due to the supply side.
However, for commodity-exporting domestic companies, the rebound in prices in 2016 still
give them room to grow on a year over year basis.
Based on the above rationales, we raise our export growth forecast for 2017 from 10.4% to 14.1%
and import growth from 11.9% to 18%. We estimate that the trade deficit will be $5 billion in 2017,
a significant change from a surplus of $1.5 billion in 2016.
Industries Outlook from a Macro Perspective
The breakdown on manufacturing data displays a considerable level of discrepancy in
performance for each industry in the first quarter of 2017. Production indicators that performed
strongly include the following areas: steel, electrical products and cable industries. There was also
very positive demand for products such as milk, fertilizers, electrical products, storage batteries,
automobiles and cable industries. It is worth noting that inventory surged in the first quarter of
2017, mainly due to a sharp increase of assembled cars (Thaco Truong Hai) and the declining
growth momentum in the steel industry.
From a macro perspective, we expect that the mining sector will be in a more challenging phase.
Crude production growth decreased by 14.5% in the first 4 months of 2017. Because the supply
gut continues to weigh on oil prices as well as Vietnam’s oil operators, we adjust our 2017 GDP
growth forecast from 6.58% to 6.4%.
In Q1 2017, the biggest outperformers came from fiber, fertilizer, electrical products and cable
industries. We think companies operating in these industries can continue to perform well. In the
absence of a significant rebound in the inflation rate, we expect consumer goods companies to
remain positive. In addition, the recovery in textile exports could brighten the 2017 business
outlook of textile companies.
8. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 8
Table 1: Manufacturing Activities by Sub-sectors in Q1 2017
Unit: %
Production
Growth*
Consumption
Growth
Inventory
Growth
Export
Growth
Import
Growth
Rating
Crude oil -14.2 Na Na 24.3 27.0 - -
Natural gas, LPG -8.4 Na Na Na 37.4 ~
Fishery 3.0 10.5 13.6 7.6 34.5 ~
Milk 9.3 12.7 1.3 Na -9.6 +
Sugar -2.0 -26.0 4.2 Na Na -
Animal Feeds 12.1 5.1 -21.6 6.0 37.3 ~
Beer 10.3 7.8 45.4 Na Na ~
Fiber 14.2 16.0 -5.2 29.9 23.0 ++
Textile 8.8 8.5 -6.4 10.9 Na +
Shoes & Leather 3.0 6.7 10.5 14.1 Na ~
Paper 7.0 8.0 32.8 Na 19.4 +
Fertilizer 12.5 16.6 -46.0 68.1 21.9 ++
Pharmaceutical 4.5 2.4 3.8 Na 6.4 ~
Plastic 8.5 8.0 23.0 11.9 19.3 +
Cement 7.3 1.8 92.3 6.9 Na ~
Steel 47.5 9.5 54.5 77.7 37.3 +
Telephones -10.4 -27.3 49.5 -6.1 22.6 -
Electrical products 23.3 29.5 14.0 45.5 11.9 ++
Storage battery 4.8 14.0 17.5 Na Na +
Cable 20.8 19.6 5.2 23.7 18.7 ++
Automobile 10.9 17.2 220.8 22.5 -1.5 +
Electricity 9.3 Na Na Na Na ~
Water 6.8 Na Na Na Na ~
Source: GSO, Customs, RongViet Research, *4M2017 vs 4M2016
Seriously negative Negative growth in production, consumption, significant increase in inventory - -
Negative Below-average growth in production, consumption, significant increase in inventory -
Neutral Production, consumption and inventory remain stable compared to the same period ~
Positive Positive growth in production, consumption, inventory remains stable +
Very positive High growth in production, consumption, inventory remains stable + +
9. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 9
VIETNAM STOCK MARKET APRIL: ONE CORRECTION PHASE DOSE NOT CHANGE THE BIG
PICTURE
The first significant correction of the market finally occurred in April. The strong profit taking
coincided with various geopolitical tensions, which caused the VN-Index to plummet from 731.33
points on April 11th to 707.58 points on April 25th. However, the index gradually recovered from
this decline by the end of April; the VN-Index reached 717.73 points, up 8% from the beginning of
the year (7% excluding ROS), while the HNX-Index reached 89.54 points, up 11.8%. The strong
increase indicates the market's high expectations for business prospects, and this time it seems
the market was right. The recently announced Q1 results of 545 companies displayed a
positive picture for the market.
Figure 10: VN-Index movement in April Figure 11: HNX-Index movement in April
Source: RongViet Research Source: RongViet Research
Large and mid-cap stocks had excellent Q1 results overall. The total NPAT of 26/30 companies
in the VN-30 basket delivered growth of 27%, with only six companies experiencing negative
growth (BMP, DPM, KDC, MSN, NT2 and PVD). For the VN-MID basket, the figure was even more
impressive. Enterprises such as PPC, DCM, HBC, PNJ, DXG, NKG, VSH, SHP, SAM, PHR, KSB, STK, PDR,
and ELC delivered earnings growth from 70% to over 200% over the same period. This robust
growth has justified the rally of the VN-MID since the beginning of this year.
Figure 12: Revenue and NPAT Growth of the Main Index in Q1 2017
Source: FiinPro, RongViet Research *excluding CII and STG
680
700
720
740
0
50
100
150
200
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300
20/01 10/02 24/02 10/03 24/03 10/04 24/04
Trading Volume (mil. shares) VNINdex (right axis)
79
83
87
91
95
0
30
60
90
20/01 10/02 24/02 10/03 24/03 10/04 24/04
Trading Volume (mil. shares) HNXIndex (right axis)
8.3%
17.7%
9.3% 8.0%
11.8%
20.7%
8.4% 7.9%
14.1%
10.5%
26.9%
38.1%
8.0%
27.7%
24.0%
VN-30 VN-MID VN-SML HOSE HNX
Performance YTD Revenue NPAT
10. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017
10
The financial services sector led in profitability growth. The strong activity of the stock market
in Q1 has led to a sharp increase in the average daily trading value and margin lending, which in
turn boosted the earnings of brokerage firms. However, these positive business results were not
fully reflected in the stock price. The stock price of top brokerage firms like VND, SSI, and HCM
have only increased by less than 20% YTD.
However, there are still dark spots for earnings results in Q1. The operations of two oil & gas
companies, PVS and especially PVD, have still not improved. PVD reported a loss for the first time
since the beginning of the low oil price era in 2014. The automobile & parts sector also
experienced some troubles, as HTL, HSC, TMT, DRC, SRC, CSM, and VKC all had negative growth.
Meanwhile, the insurance, chemicals, and travel & leisure sectors only achieved single digit
growth in earnings.
Figure 13: Revenue and NPAT Growth of Sectors in Q1 2017
Source: FiinPro, RongViet Research *excluding CII and STG, which have abnormal financial income (CII: VND1,300 billion, STG: VND571 billion)
The highlight of Q1 results is the improvement of the margins of companies. Although the
improvement can be partly attributed to abnormal financial income of some companies, it is still
a combination of good control in COGS, selling and administration expenses.
Figure 14: Gross and Net Margin of Sectors in Q1 2017
Source: FiinPro, RongViet Research *excluding CII and STG
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
Retail
Insurance
RealEstate
Technology
Oil&Gas
FinancialServices
Utilities
Travel&Leisure
IndustrialGoods&
Services
Personal&Household
Goods
Chemicals
Banks
Automobiles&Parts
BasicResources
Food&Beverage
Media
Construction&
Materials
HealthCare
Revenue NPAT Performance (YTD)
17.2%
18.1%
8.2%
9.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Retail
Insurance
RealEstate
Technology
Oil&Gas
FinancialServices
Utilities
Travel&Leisure
IndustrialGoods&
Services
Personal&Household
Goods
Chemicals
Banks
Automobiles&Parts
BasicResources
Food&Beverage
Media
Construction&Materials
HealthCare
Total
Gross margin Q1 2016 Gross margin Q1 2017 Net margin Q1 2016 Net margin Q1 2017
11. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017
11
April is a peak time in Vietnam’s stock market, with a large number of AGM sessions taking place.
Our overall impression after attending the AGMs of our coverage list is fairly optimistic. Statistics
for the 2017 business plans of 349 listed companies has also confirmed our view, as half of these
have targeted at least 10% growth in revenue. Considering what these companies have achieved
so far in Q1, the optimism seems to be reasonable.
Figure 15: 2017 Revenue Plan vs 2016 Actual Revenue
Source: FiinPro, RongViet Research
Companies have started off on the right foot, and expect to maintain this momentum through
Q2. Consequently, we retain our positive view regarding the market in Q2, but still leave room for
some possible corrections down the road. We would also like to remind investors about the
dividend payment schedule in May, as the dividend season has still continued.
Figure 16: Foreign Investors trading in the first 4 months
Source: FiinPro, RongViet Research
22%
10%
16%28%
12%
5%
3% 3%
(+)30%
(+)20%-30%
(+)10%-20%
(+)0-10%
(-)0-10%
(-)10%-20%
(-)20%-30%
(-)30%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
03/01 21/03
Net bought/sold Accumulated Value
12. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017
12
STOCK MARKET OUTLOOKS
After reaching its peak of 731.33 points, the VNIndex experienced an adjustment period for 2
weeks with a decrease of 3.2%. The difficulty of the index increasing was apparent after large-cap
stocks stopped leading the market during late March 2017, following the strong surge in the first
quarter of this year. We believe that geopolitical factors were the main catalyst for the aggressive
profit taking activities last month.
Credit growth dramatically improved in Q1 2017. This movement surprised us because capital
demand is usually low during the first quarter. As the results, it is possible that a part of credit flew
to the stock market. As a result, liquidity successfully increased over the first 4 months of 2017,
achieving an average of VND3,818 billion/session (+38% YoY). When manufacturing production
is promoted from Q2 2017, consumers will borrow more from banks, and the capital for the stock
exchange could gradually decline. Based on this, we expect that flows from foreign investors will
continue to be poured into Vietnam’s stock exchanges. The market may further open up due to
the additional room created from Pakistan being promoted to an emerging market this month,
allowing Vietnam to take over some of this space.
The classic statement “Sell in May” has been a frequently supported idea, which will continue to
create a cautious sentiment for investors. Moreover, the annual general meeting season passed,
and a large number of companies have announced Q1 business results. Therefore, the overall
picture of business prospects for listed companies is quite clear at this moment, as a large amount
of information has been announced during AGMs. After this period, there will be less supporting
information for companies. Meanwhile, sudden global movements could continue to negatively
impact Vietnam’s stock market. Therefore, we believe that May will be a favorable period for the
market. However, the business results released in the first quarter may not immediately influence
stock prices. Firms with a bright outlook in the remaining quarters of the year will still be able to
maintain a fair price or reasonable price increase.
We expect the VNIndex to fluctuate between 705 and 730 points with an average trading volume
of around VND3,800 billion. In May, the domestic macroeconomic environment may not have
much supporting news. Although the probability of a negative downturn is not high, we still do
not advise investors to use margin during this period.
Table 2: Key sectors performance
No Name
% 1M Price
Change
% 3M Price
Change
% 12M Price
Change
Market Cap
(VND Billion)
ROA
(%)
ROE (%) Basic P/E P/B
1 Retail -1.3% 4.3% 90.7% 29,475 8.0% 25.1% 13.7 5.2
2 Insurance -2.7% -2.0% 9.1% 60,182 2.3% 8.7% 21.9 2.4
3 Real Estate 0.4% 9.2% 13.7% 229,278 1.6% 4.6% 20.7 3.1
4 Technology -1.3% 3.2% 18.0% 27,625 6.4% 14.0% 11.6 2.0
5 Oil & Gas -10.4% -12.5% -11.2% 15,224 1.5% 2.7% 15.2 0.6
6 Financial Services -4.2% 9.7% 7.8% 27,725 2.6% 4.9% 10.9 1.2
7 Utilities 2.1% -3.7% 14.5% 145,621 10.4% 17.2% 12.7 2.3
8 Travel & Leisure -1.8% 11.9% 2.7% 8,016 3.1% 5.0% 11.9 2.4
9 Industrial Goods & Services 0.5% 4.8% 15.1% 70,388 6.1% 11.9% 10.9 1.7
10 Personal & Household Goods 4.9% 8.3% 20.0% 27,353 8.7% 19.1% 13.0 3.2
11 Chemicals 1.7% 5.3% 5.6% 40,951 7.0% 11.8% 9.9 1.3
12 Banks -3.2% -2.7% 9.2% 341,903 0.7% 11.0% 14.4 1.6
13 Automobiles & Parts 2.0% 7.1% -4.5% 17,588 7.9% 14.8% 13.5 1.7
14 Basic Resources -0.8% 7.8% 30.2% 68,845 8.4% 20.8% 6.1 1.4
15 Food & Beverage 1.5% 2.8% 37.3% 330,368 7.6% 17.1% 18.8 5.9
16 Media 4.6% 7.6% 18.4% 2,351 5.4% 9.4% 16.5 1.8
17 Construction & Materials -2.2% 13.1% 101.9% 181,988 4.8% 13.3% 16.7 4.5
18 Health Care 1.4% 19.1% 56.3% 28,307 4.6% 9.1% 16.4 3.5
Source: RongViet Research, FiinPro
13. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017
13
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Based on these observations of the market, we believe that “surfing” or short-term investments
contain higher levels of risk. Instead, investors should focus on companies with solid intermediate
and long term plans.
Based on the Q1 2017 earnings of listed companies, an 8% YTD increase of the VNIndex is totally
justified. Most companies recorded strong growth in profit not only from core businesses, but also
extraordinary profits such as property sales and divestitures. Moreover, a large number of
companies in certain sectors recovered from the previous bottom experienced. We recognize that
businesses are gradually improving along with positive macroeconomic data, which provides a
positive outlook for 2017. Furthermore, a statistical survey of 2017 business plans after annual
general meeting season also demonstrated a positive picture for the market, as half of the
companies projected revenue to increase by more than 10% YoY. Some of Rong Viet Research’s
favorite sectors include construction, building materials, consumer good, hydropower and
banking.
In spite of being the trough season, Q1 2017 business results from building materials companies,
including stones and ceramic tiles, recorded impressive growth rates. To be more specific, profit
after tax of several notable companies such as KSB, DHC, NNC and VIT improved by 83.4%, 58.0%,
7.1% and 83% YoY, respectively thanks to the improvement in output and business efficiency. The
higher level of activity in the construction and real estate market in Q2 2017 will be a catalyst for
positive growth of earnings for these sectors, as compared to previous quarters.
The probability of Tan Dong Hiep and Nui Nho quarries receiving an extension for 2 – 3 years has
significantly improved, with a major consensus (93%) of local citizens. In addition to this,
companies are also looking for new mines, acquiring others in the same industry (KSB, C32) and
increasing capacity in existing quarries (DHA, KSB, NNC). Regarding VIT, the acquisition and
renovation of My Duc brick factory will be a solution for its bottleneck issues, and providing strong
future growth prospects for this year and the following year. At the current price level, investment
opportunities for DHA, NNC and VIT in the intermediate term are favorable.
Stock picks Target price Horizon Investment Thesis
DHA N/a Intermediate • We expect that consumption at its main quarry, Thanh Phu, will improve after the bridge collapse
incident, which has been overcome, as well as the breakers has been transferred to the new treated
areas.
• Positive growth in output for Tan Cang and Nui Gio quarries, thanks to the improvement in demand
from areas of these quarries and Western region.
• The divestiture from financial investments will support cash flows for future quarry acquisitions and
investment in new building materials.
• Dividend yield is stable, at nearly 7%.
NNC 90,100 Intermediate • High possibility for the expansion of Nui Nho after receiving approval from local citizens. Moreover,
there is a huge demand from infrastructure construction activities in HCM City and Binh Duong.
• Boosting consumption in Tan Lap quarry leads to the improvement in revenue and profit margin.
• Ability to successfully acquire new quarries in order to maintain its core business.
• Business performance exceeds the industry average.
VIT 36,000 Long-term • Revenue growth from its new My Duc factory.
• Increase in gross margin thanks to technology improvements, decline in shrinkage rate and focusing
more on products with higher added-value.
• Local granite tile consumption prospects (VIT’s products) will grow by more than 20%/year according
to the Ministry of Construction.
14. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017
14
Hydropower is also worth considering for intermediate-term investment objectives for the
following reasons:
(1) The interference between La Nina and El Nino caused high demand for electricity while
bringing unseasonal rains in the Mid-Central, Central Highlands and the South. This resulted in
high volume from hydropower during the first four months of 2017. Most hydropower plants
recorded strong growth in profit, higher than the multi-year average and exceptionally high
compared to the same period in 2016. Although there are many comments regarding the
possibility of El Nino’s return in the second half of 2017, we think that this event will not be a
significant area of concern, especially since the rainy season of the South began earlier.
(2) In the first quarter of 2017, electricity consumption growth reached 8.3% YoY. In Q2 2017, the
growth rate will be 12%, according to EVN's plan.
(3) The rising input price of thermal power plants (coal and gas) will enhance the advantage for
hydropower plants in the CGM.
However, the low level of liquidity is the major disadvantage that investors should pay attention
to when investing in hydropower stocks. Instead, we think that REE might be a more suitable
option with its current hydropower portfolio including 8 companies (1 Subsidiary, 5 Affiliated
companies and 2 Long-term financial investments).
PPC, a thermal power plant company, is also another stock worth noting, as it has begun
recovering from its bottom, and is a strong pick for investors with an intermediate term horizon.
Stock Picks Target Price Time Horizon Investment Rationales
CHP 25,000 Intermediate
-term
• Revenue and PAT in Q1 2017 increased by 158% and 14.8% respectively.
• Favorable hydrological conditions and the growing demand for electricity will support the company
during the remaining quarters of 2017.
• We expect that its PAT will reach VND356 billion during 2017, corresponding to an EPS of VND2,695.
• The Cash dividend for 2016 and 2017 was approved by the AGM at VND1,600 dong/share and
VND1,500 – 1,700/share.
SHP 22,800 Intermediate
-term
• Revenue increased by 112% YoY and PAT in Q1 2017 was VND -12 billion (Q12016: VND -54 billion)
• Favorable hydrological conditions and growing demand for electricity will support the company during
the remaining quarters of 2017.
• We expect that the company’s PAT will be VND356 billion in 2017, corresponding to an EPS of
VND2,695.
VSH N/a Long-term • Revenue and PAT of Q1 2017 increased by 83% and 97% respectively.
• Favorable hydrological conditions and growing demand for electricity will support the company
during the remaining quarters of 2017.
• The participation of REE will bring about positive changes in VSH's corporate governance.
REE 35,500 Long-term • Revenue and PAT of Q1 2017 increase 97% and 217% respectively.
• Positive outlook of the company’s power sector thanks to (1) Positive outlook of hydropower and (2)
PPC's debt repayment before maturity will help consolidated profit from this company, and it will no
longer has much fluctuations due to exchange rate fluctuations.
• The remaining business sectors followed our expectations.
• We expect that its PAT for 2017 will be VND1,175 billion, corresponding to an EPS of VND3,791.
PPC 19,400 Intermediate
-term
• Revenue and PAT of Q1 2017 reached VN1,476 billion and VND142 billion (Q12016: VND -158 billion)
due to (1) The sharp increase in average selling prices of PL1, (2) the VND32billion profit from
divestment in a subsidiary (3) the decrease in foreign exchange losses.
• Exchange rate risks decreases since PPC plans to prepay its debt before maturity. In which, the company
will pay JPY16 billion in the first half of 2017 with funds from (1) cash and short-term bank deposits and
(2) short-term commercial bank loans (if necessary). We forecast that the company’s net interest income
will be around VND200 billion (-25% YoY).
15. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017
15
• We expect that its PAT for 2017 will be VND719 billion (+31% YoY), corresponding to EPS of VND2,096.
We also think that the construction, banking, textile and port sectors are noteworthy areas for
investment. In terms of business results in Q1 2017, construction, banking, and textile companies
have delivered stronger growth as compared to last year. We believe that the overall performance
of these sectors will be stronger than 2016, as the prospects for the remaining three quarters are
also very strong. Given the strong increase in terms of stocks prices in the first four months, we
currently give a neutral recommendation for textile stocks and recommend investors to
accumulate stocks in the remaining industries.
Newly listed stocks have been attracting the attention of investors over the last few years. Rong
Viet Research would like to introduce several stocks which have been recently listed or under the
procedure to be listed in the future.
CTCP Siam Brother (SBG – HSX)
• CTCP Siam Brother (SBG) was approved to be listed and will begin trading on the HSX (20.54 million shares) at VND
40,000/share this month (16/5/2017).
• Siam Brother is a longtime brand (over 50 years) in rope production and distribution in Thailand. The company started to
penetrate Vietnam’s market in 199, and currently accounts for 40% of the market. Siam Brother is leading the market with 2.5
times the scale of company in 2nd
position.
• SBG’s business results grew continuously, even during Vietnam’s economic downturn. During 2012 – 2016, revenue and profit
after tax of SBG achieved CARG of 12.0% and 22.6% respectively. The company’s profit margin has gradually improved and is
currently at a high level. The company’s gross margin and net margin for 2016 were 42.5% and 22.4% respectively.
• Existing factories reached the maximum designed capacity. The company’s new factory is projected to have capacity of 3,000
tons/year, equivalent to 30% of current capacity and will begin operating in July of 2017.
• With ample room for growth from the agriculture market, and its increased focus on exports, RongViet Research expects the
demand prospects to be positive. In 2017, SBG targets to achieve VND601.28 billion in revenue and VND 149.77 billion in PAT,
equivalent to EPS of VND6,000. Furthermore, SBG has an attractive cash dividend (nearly 10%).
Loc Troi Group
• Loc Troi, formerly known as An Giang Plant Protection Joint Stock Company, was established in 1993 and was equitized in
September 2004 with chartered capital of VND150 billion. Currently, the company has a chartered capital of VND672 billion
and is targeting a vertical agricultural value chain, with its three main segments including pesticides, rice and seeds. The
16. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017
16
company’s pesticide segment has been maintaining a strong growth rate and a gross margin of 31% - 33%, well above the
sector average of 24.6%. The company’s seed segment is still fairly stable with a gross margin of 35%, despite strong
competition from the NSC. The only segment that is struggling is its rice segment, due to the unfinished production value
chain and unfavorable weather conditions.
• In 2017, Loc Troi plans to achieve revenue growth of 6.5%, equivalent to VND8,857 billion, which will primarily be driven by
its plant and medicine segment, while it expects for its rice segment to experience negative growth. We expect that the
company’s pesticides and seeds segments will achieve positive growth. The company plans for its PBT and PAT to reach
VND597 billion (+28.7% YoY) and VND460 billion (+31.8% YoY). According to this plan, EPS in FY2017 will be VND5,822 (+32%
YoY). We think that this plan is quite ambitious due to (1) unfavorable weather conditions, its incomplete value chain, and
new business lines that have not been implemented. Unfavorable weather conditions are a key negative factor for this
company, as seen by rice exports falling by 8% YoY during the first four months of this year.
• There are 3 highlights of the company’s FY2017 business plan. (1) Loc Troi will sign a joint venture with China to export rice to
this market in May 2017. (2) The company will develop a value chain in fruit trees with HAG after its initiation in 3 western
provinces, including Tien Giang, Ben Tre and Vinh Long. (3) Finally, Loc Troi will also begin growing coffee, as it has been doing
with rice products since 2010. The company’s fruit tree and coffee projects will take Loc Troi a very long time to implement,
and it will take time before they begin to significantly impact its business.
• 67 million shares of Loc Troi might be listed on UPCOM by the end of this May. Changes in shareholder structure, namely a
new major shareholder of Viet Nam Marina Ltd, has just received a 25.5% transfer from Standard Charter Private Equity, which
may be a sign for this listing.
• Currently, there aren’t many shares in the agribusiness and Loc Troi is a notable one as it is targeting a vertical value chain in
this sector. Although Loc Troi plant protection products are comparatively favorable to its competitors, its rice and seed
products are still in the process of improvement. Although there are many companies working in the same fields (food and
seedlings) with Loc Troi, their firm size is relatively small, and has a low product value, and undefined brand and output. Loc
Troi has the ability to take advantage of its chain to promote its competitive advantages.
• The company’s forward P/E at present is 9.9 times, based on its growth plans and current OTC price. We hold the view that
Loc Troi’s shares are undervalued. However, investors should note that the investment period should be long term, and it will
take a long time for the company to put its agribusiness chain into operation
• In addition, there are some risks to investing in Loc Troi shares such as: (1) objective factors in the industry such as weather
and diseases (2) risk of instability in agricultural policy, and (3) many product value chains that are deployed at the same time
but are not yet effective.
In addition, the correction of the market in the month will also be the opportunity to accumulate
stocks for long-term investment objectives. RongViet Research’s favorite stocks are those with
leading role in their industry or those in sectors that expect to see positive changes in the recovery
of the economy or the supportive of policies.
Figure 17: RongViet Research’s stock pick
17. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017
17
Source: RongViet Research; Price @ May 5th
, 2017
22. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 22
INDUSTRY INDEX
Level 1 industry movement Level 2 industry movement
Source: RongViet Research Source: RongViet Research
Industry PE comparison Industry PB comparison
Source: RongViet Research Source: RongViet Research
-1% -2%
-10%
-1%
1% 2%
-3%
0%
-1%
2%
Technology
Industrials
Oil&Gas
ConsumerServices
HealthCare
ConsumerGoods
Banks
BasicMaterials
Financials
Utilities
-1%
-3%
0%
-1%
-10%
-4%
2%
-2%
1%
5%
2%
-3%
2%
-1%
1%
5%
-2%
1%
Retail
Insurance
Real Estate
Technology
Oil & Gas
Financial Services
Utilities
Travel & Leisure
Industrial Goods & Services
Personal & Household Goods
Chemicals
Banks
Automobiles & Parts
Basic Resources
Food & Beverage
Media
Construction & Materials
Health Care
11.6
15.1 15.2
13.5
16.4
18.1
14.4
7.5
20.1
12.7
16.9
11.5
Technology
Industrials
Oil&Gas
Consumer
Services
HealthCare
Consumer
Goods
Banks
BasicMaterials
Financials
Utilities
HSX
HNX
2.0
3.7
0.6
4.5
3.5
5.5
1.6
1.3
2.8
2.3
3.8
1.6
Technology
Industrials
Oil&Gas
ConsumerServices
HealthCare
ConsumerGoods
Banks
BasicMaterials
Financials
Utilities
HSX
HNX
23. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 23
DISCLAIMERS
This report is prepared in order to provide information and analysis to clients of Rong Viet Securities only. It is and
should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities. No consideration
has been given to the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific. The readers
should be aware that Rong Viet Securities may have a conflict of interest that can compromise the objectivity this
research. This research is to be viewed by investors only as a source of reference when making investments.
Investors are to take full responsibility of their own decisions. VDSC shall not be liable for any loss, damages, cost
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The opinions expressed in this research report reflect only the analyst's personal views of the subject securities or
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24. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report May 2017 24
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