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Valuation for Start-ups…What is
your start-up worth?
Parag Dhol
Inventus Advisory Services
India (P) Ltd.
Nidhi Gupta
• Early-stage, tech-focussed VC Fund
• Internet, Mobile, Software & Tech-enabled Services
• Investment Size: $1-3M to start with
• Team:
• Investments:
• Find us at www.inventusvc.com
Theory
What is Value?
• Quotable quotes
– “Value lies in the eye of the beholder.”
– “A broker knows the price of everything and
the value of nothing.”
• Valuation is a systematic, disciplined approach,
not (always) a science.
• Value = Monetary estimate of the benefit from
owning an asset
• Useful for
– Raising Capital
– Selling /buying / merging businesses and companies
– Public floatation
Performance – Return – Valuation
Financial
Performance
Return
Expectation
Valuation
Multiple
Equity
Valuation
• Sales
• EBIDTA
• EBIT
• PAT
• Value / Sales
• Value / Profit
• Value / EBIDTA
• Value / EBIT
Steps in Valuation
•Sound business plan - underlying
assumptions
•Forecast financials: P&L, B/S, Cash Flow
•Appropriate method of valuation
•Estimate valuation
•Test Valuation under various scenarios
•Objective behind purchase – passive,
JV, strategic investment, control
•Premium for strategic objectives, such
as “control”.
Practise
Guilty as Charged….
• Series A Investors (typically)
– Sometimes, start-up Stage
• Valuation by a Series A Investor; Ad-hoc
combination of…
– Experience
– Thumb-rules
– Gut-feel
– Fundamental Analysis
– Comparison with relevant matches
Other Thoughts….
• DCF: Limitations
– Forecast for next 5-10 years?
– Hard to predict cash flows
– What discount rate to use?
– Terminal value
• Porter’s Five Forces framework
• Valuation depends on stage
Seed Start-Up First Second Late Exit
Stage Stage Stage
Art Science
Drivers of Valuation
• Environment Related
– Macro-economic outlook
– Industry Outlook
• Firm Related
– Fundamentals of the firm, esp. strategic aspects.
• Deal Related
– Stage of investment and expected investment horizon
– Relative size of exposure in relation to the size of the deal.
– Previous round investors’ expectations
– Exit prospects and path
• Valuation Trends
– Comparable deals. Caution : Compare likes.
– Public market valuations and liquidity
What else matters?
Liquidation Preference
4.8 4.0
15.2 16.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
$M $M
Founders
VC
1x
Participative LP
1x Non-
Participative LP
crorescrores
1 crore raise, 4 crores pre-money; Strategic Sale at 20 crores
What got us here?
Source: Upfront Ventures
US VC capital invested ($B)
$Millions
Source: Venture
Intelligence India
The destinies of all followers lie in the hands of their leaders
India VC capital invested
Valuations
Source: Dow Jones VentureSource; Upfront Ventures
Do you expect valuation expectations to go up,
down or remain about the same as previous
quarters?
Source: Upfront Ventures Survey; Jan 2016; 155 VCs
Overall mood…..
Source: Upfront Ventures Survey; Jan 2016; 155 VCs
Gravity defying business models….
On the margin…..
Thank You!
parag@inventusvc.com

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Valuation for Startups - What is your Start-up worth?

  • 1. Valuation for Start-ups…What is your start-up worth? Parag Dhol Inventus Advisory Services India (P) Ltd.
  • 2. Nidhi Gupta • Early-stage, tech-focussed VC Fund • Internet, Mobile, Software & Tech-enabled Services • Investment Size: $1-3M to start with • Team: • Investments: • Find us at www.inventusvc.com
  • 4. What is Value? • Quotable quotes – “Value lies in the eye of the beholder.” – “A broker knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.” • Valuation is a systematic, disciplined approach, not (always) a science. • Value = Monetary estimate of the benefit from owning an asset • Useful for – Raising Capital – Selling /buying / merging businesses and companies – Public floatation
  • 5. Performance – Return – Valuation Financial Performance Return Expectation Valuation Multiple Equity Valuation • Sales • EBIDTA • EBIT • PAT • Value / Sales • Value / Profit • Value / EBIDTA • Value / EBIT
  • 6. Steps in Valuation •Sound business plan - underlying assumptions •Forecast financials: P&L, B/S, Cash Flow •Appropriate method of valuation •Estimate valuation •Test Valuation under various scenarios •Objective behind purchase – passive, JV, strategic investment, control •Premium for strategic objectives, such as “control”.
  • 8. Guilty as Charged…. • Series A Investors (typically) – Sometimes, start-up Stage • Valuation by a Series A Investor; Ad-hoc combination of… – Experience – Thumb-rules – Gut-feel – Fundamental Analysis – Comparison with relevant matches
  • 9. Other Thoughts…. • DCF: Limitations – Forecast for next 5-10 years? – Hard to predict cash flows – What discount rate to use? – Terminal value • Porter’s Five Forces framework • Valuation depends on stage Seed Start-Up First Second Late Exit Stage Stage Stage Art Science
  • 10. Drivers of Valuation • Environment Related – Macro-economic outlook – Industry Outlook • Firm Related – Fundamentals of the firm, esp. strategic aspects. • Deal Related – Stage of investment and expected investment horizon – Relative size of exposure in relation to the size of the deal. – Previous round investors’ expectations – Exit prospects and path • Valuation Trends – Comparable deals. Caution : Compare likes. – Public market valuations and liquidity
  • 12. Liquidation Preference 4.8 4.0 15.2 16.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 $M $M Founders VC 1x Participative LP 1x Non- Participative LP crorescrores 1 crore raise, 4 crores pre-money; Strategic Sale at 20 crores
  • 13. What got us here?
  • 14. Source: Upfront Ventures US VC capital invested ($B)
  • 15. $Millions Source: Venture Intelligence India The destinies of all followers lie in the hands of their leaders India VC capital invested
  • 16. Valuations Source: Dow Jones VentureSource; Upfront Ventures Do you expect valuation expectations to go up, down or remain about the same as previous quarters? Source: Upfront Ventures Survey; Jan 2016; 155 VCs
  • 17. Overall mood….. Source: Upfront Ventures Survey; Jan 2016; 155 VCs